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Coltscrazy

Super QB or Complete Team

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Do you guys want to go back to a 30 mil QB and a weak team or do you want to do something different?  I know the league is all about passing, but it does get tiring to have to have a QB play a perfect game to win 43 to 40.  Our lone super bowl had more to do with Dominic Rhodes and the Defense than it did Peyton.  I always used to watch teams with great defenses and runners like Jerome Bettis, and then we go and throw it every down.  It might not even be possible to win with a resource heavy defense now days with the rules.  It just gets tiring having the game be about one guy.  Any one else want a Trent Dilfer type game manager on a monster team?

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3 hours ago, Coltscrazy said:

Do you guys want to go back to a 30 mil QB and a weak team or do you want to do something different?  I know the league is all about passing, but it does get tiring to have to have a QB play a perfect game to win 43 to 40.  Our lone super bowl had more to do with Dominic Rhodes and the Defense than it did Peyton.  I always used to watch teams with great defenses and runners like Jerome Bettis, and then we go and throw it every down.  It might not even be possible to win with a resource heavy defense now days with the rules.  It just gets tiring having the game be about one guy.  Any one else want a Trent Dilfer type game manager on a monster team?

Why not both

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We were going to have both :(

 

Although I wouldn’t say Andrew was a super QB. Didn’t have the best team around him but never actually got us to the Super Bowl or played enough.

 

I would say complete team. A great defensive team can take you pretty far.

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Let me talk with John Park and George Li first. If I were to guess, I'd lean toward a complete team with a competent QB. Wait, that sounds familiar …

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The QB position is the most important position in football. If you’re an NFL GM, you want a franchise caliber QB to lead the team. Looking at all SBs dating back to 2000, there have specificity been three teams (Bucs and Ravens 2X) that didn’t have the luxury of a All Pro QB or Pro Bowl QB leading their respective teams. With that being said, those teams had top rated defenses and excellent running games. 

 

To not have that franchise QB on a team and advance to the SB, I think historically it shows everything else on the team needs to be perfect. That’s hard to do these days, so having a top notch signal caller is key to the teams success. 

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7 hours ago, Coltscrazy said:

Any one else want a Trent Dilfer type game manager on a monster team?

Not at all. And you alluded to it in your post, today is a different game. Go to last year's playoff game between the Bears and Eagles. Up 15-9 and the #1 scoring defense couldn't stop the Eagles when it mattered. 

 

Even if the plan is to do it on the Seattle model, you still have to do it by drafting a pro bowl level qb with a non-premium draft pick. And that window for maintaining that level of defense is much smaller comparative to the window you have with an all-pro qb(unless he retires at 29)

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Both, but if you can only have one, it’s complete team. How can a Colts fan with 20 years of Manning and Luck and one championship, pick super QB over complete team. 

 

The rules are making it easier for QB’s to be successful.

The league wants the old guys to keep playing.

They want every team to appear to have a franchise QB, for promoting match ups. 

Add to that offensive designs to limit hits on QB’s and increase completion percentage. 

 

Complete team with a top coach and competent QB is fine by me. 

 

 

 

 

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When Peyton won in Denver, his arm was shot, but he had a killer defense and CJ Anderson went nuts.  I'd love to have both, but the cap mechanics on that stuff is nasty.  Now if a QB like Patrick Mahomes fell to us, I'd say heck yes, but I'm aching for a different type of team.

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we had both a few weeks ago.  you realize the team has plenty of cap space for any QB now?  we are looking to have by far the most cap space again

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4 hours ago, bravo4460 said:

We were going to have both :(

 

Although I wouldn’t say Andrew was a super QB. Didn’t have the best team around him but never actually got us to the Super Bowl or played enough.

 

I would say complete team. A great defensive team can take you pretty far.

1st round in his rookie year with a crappy team

2nd round in his second year with the same crappy team

AFC Championship in his third year with an even older crappier team full of over the hill free agents

 

Then the injuries started because he had a horrible GM that didn't protect him and had no clue on how to build a roster from the foundation up....

 

So many "Fans" are suffering from recency bias it's pathetic.

 

Definition of Recency Bias

 

"Recency bias" is the phenomenon of a person most easily remembering something that has happened recently, compared to remembering something that may have occurred a while back.

 

So people are judging Luck by the last 4 years of injury riddled seasons they forget how he willed those teams to the playoffs the first 3 years......Andrew Luck is, was and always will be a Super QB....

 

Sorry, not yelling at you in particular, just venting.....lol

 

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30 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

we had both a few weeks ago.  you realize the team has plenty of cap space for any QB now?  we are looking to have by far the most cap space again

If we keep having great drafts, guys like Nelson and Leonard are going to get paid.  A QB eating a fifth of your cap space is crippling.  I don't know how Brady does it.  Some of those teams it looked like he was throwing to people off the street. 

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The forgotten part of this argument is that the Players Association will not let teams build super teams because they won't let "star" players take hometown discounts to stay and spread more money around.

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5 hours ago, Scott Pennock said:

1st round in his rookie year with a crappy team

2nd round in his second year with the same crappy team

AFC Championship in his third year with an even older crappier team full of over the hill free agents

 

Then the injuries started because he had a horrible GM that didn't protect him and had no clue on how to build a roster from the foundation up....

 

So many "Fans" are suffering from recency bias it's pathetic.

 

Definition of Recency Bias

 

"Recency bias" is the phenomenon of a person most easily remembering something that has happened recently, compared to remembering something that may have occurred a while back.

 

So people are judging Luck by the last 4 years of injury riddled seasons they forget how he willed those teams to the playoffs the first 3 years......Andrew Luck is, was and always will be a Super QB....

 

Sorry, not yelling at you in particular, just venting.....lol

 

 

Lol I get it. 

 

Although I still believe he had the ability to be great, just not a “super QB” lol.

 

Anyone can make excuses for him all day but he ALONG with teams crapped the bed in the playoffs at some point every year. Even that Chiefs game he had 3 int’s in pretty much the first half if I remember correctly? Also his TD - INT number weren’t great half of his career.

 

I dont want want to make it another Andrew Luck debate lol. I just think that the Colts fan bias is gone and now people can actually be honest the type of QB he was.

 

 

Great at times. Not super. 

 

I am am an Andrew fan and he played Great last year. Shame that he retired in what should have been his “prime”.

 

I don’t wanna talk about him anymore. ;) lol

 

Time to roll with the Ol’ Brisket.

 

 

 

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20 hours ago, Coltscrazy said:

Do you guys want to go back to a 30 mil QB and a weak team or do you want to do something different?  I know the league is all about passing, but it does get tiring to have to have a QB play a perfect game to win 43 to 40.  Our lone super bowl had more to do with Dominic Rhodes and the Defense than it did Peyton.  I always used to watch teams with great defenses and runners like Jerome Bettis, and then we go and throw it every down.  It might not even be possible to win with a resource heavy defense now days with the rules.  It just gets tiring having the game be about one guy.  Any one else want a Trent Dilfer type game manager on a monster team?

Good QB and Top 10 D, bigtime skill players on offense are overrated a good QB will make the offense score points. Couple that with a good D and you have a good shot at a SB, if you're other great players on your team are WRs or RBs along and average D with a great QB you'll likely have less success than a team with a good QB average WRs and a great D. 

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Setting aside the fact this is a false choise...all we have to do is look at the QBs in the conference champsionship games over the past few years...and you can see a trend. Top tier QB play is still king, The 2017 playoffs (with Bortles, Keenum and Foles) was somewhat of an outlier...and neither MIN or JAC managed to keep it up the following year. Foles is in fact a legit QB....and was on a team that had a very good QB on a rookie deal...so definitely the exception.

 

I would take a QB worth that price tag over a monster team. It's incredibly difficult to build and maintain a monster team. If the GM is truly good enough at drafting that he can accomplish a monster team...then we would want the elite QB...because he can just find cheap talent in the draft to build around.

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16 hours ago, bravo4460 said:

We were going to have both :(

 

Although I wouldn’t say Andrew was a super QB. Didn’t have the best team around him but never actually got us to the Super Bowl or played enough.

 

I would say complete team. A great defensive team can take you pretty far.

Probably not. Andrew’s heart wasn’t in it.  He probably would have been subpar this season given his injury, mental and heart issues.  Got to be all in in this league to be great.  Andrew wasn’t or couldn’t be.  So best that he stepped aside. 

 

I will go with complete team.  But the question is...is this Colts team really complete?  We will find out. 

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A QB can do only do so much. As great as Peyton and Andrew were, they only brought indy one championship

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1 super bowl between Peyton and Luck. I’d choose complete team 10/10. Few teams have both. We often see complete teams with serviceable QBs win the super bowl, but almost never see an elite QB single handedly carry his team to a Super Bowl 

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On 9/2/2019 at 1:33 AM, Coltscrazy said:

Do you guys want to go back to a 30 mil QB and a weak team or do you want to do something different?  I know the league is all about passing, but it does get tiring to have to have a QB play a perfect game to win 43 to 40.  Our lone super bowl had more to do with Dominic Rhodes and the Defense than it did Peyton.  I always used to watch teams with great defenses and runners like Jerome Bettis, and then we go and throw it every down.  It might not even be possible to win with a resource heavy defense now days with the rules.  It just gets tiring having the game be about one guy.  Any one else want a Trent Dilfer type game manager on a monster team?

Colts were on the verge of having both before Luck retired.

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21 hours ago, coltsva said:

Both, but if you can only have one, it’s complete team. How can a Colts fan with 20 years of Manning and Luck and one championship, pick super QB over complete team

 

 

 

 

 

 

It was very nice being in it almost every season.   That was when we watched most "complete" teams only make the playoffs once out of every 3 years.   

But really, there are lots of variables.   A complete team with a Sanchez type of QB is frustrating to watch.  A complete team with an above average QB is good.   A top QB like Luck with a Ballard GM is great, but with a Grigson GM, not so much.

The 8 QB's in last years divisional round of the playoffs were:

Rivers

Brady

Luck

Mahomes

Prescott

Goff

Brees

Foles

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As a Colts fan, it was very frustrating for me to watch a stellar QB like Manning try to overcome the limitations of a weak to mediocre defense, or an average O-line. If he didn't have Edge, Marvin and Reggie, it would have been ugly. Somewhere, there is an optimal balance for a team. I hope we get there.

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Complete team. I often make the argument that Peyton wins the Super Bowl in one or two years where Brady won it had we had a better defense. 

 

Luckily, the defense came together and got hot after that embarrassing loss to the Jags. Went on and won it all. But prior to that the defense was never great. 

 

Big reason why I’m such a Ballard fan is based off his comments from day 1 he gets it. It was great to have a qb like Luck however the entire roster matters. And he has upgraded basically every position. 

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12 hours ago, shastamasta said:

Setting aside the fact this is a false choise

 

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/black-or-white

 

On 9/2/2019 at 7:40 AM, Coltscrazy said:

I'd love to have both, but the cap mechanics on that stuff is nasty. 

 

Not really. Over the next five seasons, the NFL salary cap will probably average more than $200m. If you pay a guy $30m/year -- let's say it's JB, and you hit that average even with a new monster extension after 2019 -- you're still somewhere around 15% of the salary cap. And you have $170m with which to build a solid roster.

 

If you can't build a solid roster around a $30m/year QB, the problem is with your drafting and coaching. Not your roster/cap mechanics.

 

And in the Colts' case, because of the heavy rollover, they'll probably have an extra $10m/year to spend, on average. 

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3 hours ago, ThinBlueLineColts said:

I often make the argument that Peyton wins the Super Bowl in one or two years where Brady won it had we had a better defense. 

 

Then we should have drafted better. Or signed a free agent once in a while.

 

Our top three draft picks, from 2006-09:
Addai, Jennings, Keiaho (thank goodness we got Bethea in the 6th round)

Gonzalez, Ugoh, Hughes

Pollak, Wheeler, Tamme

Brown, Moala, Powers

 

The defense wasn't bad because we were paying PM too much. It was bad because we didn't draft good defensive players, several years in a row.

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Don't get me wrong, the QB needs to have some kind of ceiling to be able to make or extend plays at some point in the playoffs. However, the QB needs to have that margin of error with ST and D to make plays to keep games close to give him a chance to win it. In the playoffs, scoring comes at a premium and you need to reduce the chances for a shootout as much as possible to get team wins in close games.

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You want to have both, of course, but that is rare. If you have an elite QB, you pay him and build around him. If you don't, you build everything so that the QB has the best possible chance of success. This includes acquiring and developing players who fit your system. Teams which do this well often make a QB look better than he actually is. It also helps if the QB knows his own limitations and plays to his strengths. I feel like this building and developing process is going well. We need Brissett to make some plays and limit mistakes. 

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Elite team + elite QB has only happened twice in my lifetime so expecting for both is very very unlikely. The Patriots and Brady - look at their defensive rankings the years they've won the SB and the Cowboys with Aikmen.

 

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2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Then we should have drafted better. Or signed a free agent once in a while.

 

Our top three draft picks, from 2006-09:
Addai, Jennings, Keiaho (thank goodness we got Bethea in the 6th round)

Gonzalez, Ugoh, Hughes

Pollak, Wheeler, Tamme

Brown, Moala, Powers

 

The defense wasn't bad because we were paying PM too much. It was bad because we didn't draft good defensive players, several years in a row.

 

Never said his salary was why the defense was bad. Just simply answered which I’d rather have. We saw first hand for several years what only having a top notch QB gets you if you have holes elsewhere on the roster. 

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1 minute ago, ThinBlueLineColts said:

 

Never said his salary was why the defense is bad. Just simply answered which I’d rather have. We saw first hand for several years what only having a top notch QB gets you if you have holes elsewhere on the roster. 

 

My point is that paying the QB doesn't prevent you from having a good roster around him. There's pressure to draft well and develop talent, but that pressure should be there anyway.

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I can only imagine what effect having Ballard as the GM from 2011 on would have had.  A top 5 QB and a GM who drafts well.   

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The Bears took Grossman to a SB, I mean c'mon. 

 

Marino, Jim Kelly never won a SB and were amazing QB's. 

 

Rothlesturder has more SB rings than Rogers, and we can all agree who's the better QB. 

 

Flacco has a SB ring for crying out loud. 

 

It's easy to see what is more important. 

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17 hours ago, ty4atd said:

Good QB and Top 10 D, bigtime skill players on offense are overrated a good QB will make the offense score points. Couple that with a good D and you have a good shot at a SB, if you're other great players on your team are WRs or RBs along and average D with a great QB you'll likely have less success than a team with a good QB average WRs and a great D. 

I agree that elite QBs make trash wideouts look good, but elite QBs without an OL are target practice.  No running game, and having to throw every down, it doesn't matter who is your QB.

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4 hours ago, Superman said:

 

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/black-or-white

 

 

Not really. Over the next five seasons, the NFL salary cap will probably average more than $200m. If you pay a guy $30m/year -- let's say it's JB, and you hit that average even with a new monster extension after 2019 -- you're still somewhere around 15% of the salary cap. And you have $170m with which to build a solid roster.

 

If you can't build a solid roster around a $30m/year QB, the problem is with your drafting and coaching. Not your roster/cap mechanics.

 

And in the Colts' case, because of the heavy rollover, they'll probably have an extra $10m/year to spend, on average. 

 

I think you might be underestimating the cap hit.  Of course great drafting is important, but you always hear about teams that have to win now while the elite QB is on a rookie contract, because after he gets paid, half the team gets let go.  It drives me nuts hearing about the 'window' before a team has to dump salary.

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Just now, Coltscrazy said:

 

I think you might be underestimating the cap hit.  Of course great drafting is important, but you always hear about teams that have to win now while the elite QB is on a rookie contract, because after he gets paid, half the team gets let go.  It drives me nuts hearing about the 'window' before a team has to dump salary.

 

I promise I'm not. On the contrary, I think people who talk about the "window" are overestimating the QB pay, and not paying enough attention to the rest of the team building process.

 

The Seahawks are the common example these days. Did you know that after trading for Clowney, Seattle is still ~$18m under the cap in 2019? Did you know that, as of right now, Seattle is projected to be ~$80m under the cap in 2020? Did you know that they also have the highest paid ILB in NFL history, Bobby Wagner?

 

Everybody watched Seattle let Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman walk, and assumed they did so because of the money. It was probably more because they were getting old and diminishing in ability. 

 

Sure, paying one player 12-15% of the cap is going to reduce your margin for error in other areas. But it doesn't mean you can't have a complete roster. You have to draft well, and you have to coach well. 

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8 hours ago, CoachLite said:

Somewhere, there is an optimal balance for a team. I hope we get there.

Succinct and accurate

1 hour ago, lollygagger8 said:

Rothlesturder

Now that's funny

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Interesting read on this subject:

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/1/2/18164980/nfl-playoffs-quarterbacks-salary-cap-kirk-cousins-patrick-mahomes

 

In the era of the booming salary cap, quarterbacks are being paid a disproportionately high percentage of their team’s available dollars. They account for the 14 largest salary cap hits in 2018—in 2011, there were six QBs in the top 14. Denver quarterback Case Keenum has the same cap hit in 2018 as Houston defensive end J.J. Watt. San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s guaranteed salary this season is higher than the entire salary cap for a team in 1996. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is making $66.9 million this year as part of his new deal, which is $4 million more than a team’s entire salary cap in 2000.

The problem with teams committing so much of their cap space to quarterbacks is that it is clearly an unsuccessful strategy. None of the five highest-paid quarterbacks in 2018 by average salary—Rodgers, Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins, Garoppolo, and Detroit’s Matthew Stafford—made the playoffs. 

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You guys got me thinking about the New England model.  I think they have a great formula.  Brady and  Gronk got a suitcase full of cash, and the key would be a solid, not great OL.  They always had deep lines of 2nd through fourth round draft picks.  Guys like Shaq Mason.  I think most teams have a few blue chip lineman, and then the rest of the line is awful.  They draft a high left tackle and then throw something together and hope for the best.  Not New England.  Great QB and TE, solid OL, a pass catching runner on offense.  I must say the Pats always got crazy value with Edelman.  Then, they make the defense as good as they can with whatever money is left.  They normally had a couple of high quality DBs and then they throw in guys like Kyle Van Noy.  Crazy good model, but obviously not the only one that would work.

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36 minutes ago, Myles said:

Interesting read on this subject:

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/1/2/18164980/nfl-playoffs-quarterbacks-salary-cap-kirk-cousins-patrick-mahomes

 

In the era of the booming salary cap, quarterbacks are being paid a disproportionately high percentage of their team’s available dollars. They account for the 14 largest salary cap hits in 2018—in 2011, there were six QBs in the top 14. Denver quarterback Case Keenum has the same cap hit in 2018 as Houston defensive end J.J. Watt. San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo’s guaranteed salary this season is higher than the entire salary cap for a team in 1996. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is making $66.9 million this year as part of his new deal, which is $4 million more than a team’s entire salary cap in 2000.

The problem with teams committing so much of their cap space to quarterbacks is that it is clearly an unsuccessful strategy. None of the five highest-paid quarterbacks in 2018 by average salary—Rodgers, Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins, Garoppolo, and Detroit’s Matthew Stafford—made the playoffs. 

 

Thanks for the article.  It always makes me angry to see teams draft players they never intend to keep in the lower first to third round.  It is like they are rented.  I see this the most with linebackers and corners.  How many times do corners get the big pay day with the team that drafted them?  The Colts used to let linebackers walk like Peterson.  It seems many defenses are just a bunch of rented rookies.

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