I couldn't agree more. Who gets drafted where is so important to that QB's chances for success for all the reasons you mentioned above. I think the Colts would be one of those franchises where a rookie would develop quickly and could wind up starting sooner rather than later. Regarding Kelly none of us know anything about his leadership abilities. He certainly looked in command of the team in the limited time we saw him play. He's been squeaky clean this year off the field so maybe he has settled down. We will see I guess. Colin Cowherd had an interesting segment on his show today. He talked about the success rate in the NFL of QB's coming out of Major programs with 4 and 5 star recruits versus the mid tier programs and the 3 star recruits. The mid tier programs won in his analysis and this year he actually compared Burroughs to Love as an example of a power school to a mid tier school. Interesting listen if you can find it. He too feels where they land will determine how successful they become. I have a feeling Love is going to get a lot of love leading up to the draft. If he truly turns out to be Ballards guy I believe he is going to have to go out and get him. JMO.
What about drafting a QB? Doesn't that tell JB he isn't the guy, and is just keeping the seat warm for when the new guy is ready?
If Kelly starts JB will get over it, and the team will embrace the staff for doing everything possible for this season and the future of the team.
There will never be another Peyton so we do agree on the 1% chance of landing something like that. I said 10% on landing someone Luck, perhaps that may have been a bit low but I would say a 20% chance is pushing it. We would have to get really lucky a 3rd time and hope whoever we draft ends up like Wilson or Mahomes. That is doubtful though.
Regarding Tom Brady I will say this, he has made the most out of his situation and accomplished 6 SB wins. I agree with your concept overall though, if a rookie QB goes to a good situation (like Wilson did) they have a better chance of succeeding. I love our GM, like our Coach, love our O.line but not happy with our WR core or our defense. Our defense has played great at times than has looked bad like this past Sunday.
Fair or not, hypocritical or not, QBs are always treated differently.
If Chad Kelly does play this year, 3 things can happen.
1. Chad Kelly plays so amazingly well that there is NO question that he is the starting QB the following year. (How likely is this to happen? 10% chance? 20%?)
2. Chad Kelly plays fairly well. The Colts have a QB controversy. JB and Chad Kelly fight for the #1 QB position during the preseason, but in all likelihood, neither would be the answer at the QB position if Chad Kelley isn't clearly better than JB.
3. Chad Kelly plays poorly, showing why he was #3 on the depth chart. The coaches must now revert back to JB, after they have shown that they are willing to replace him. The other players now know that they don't have a true #1 leader at the QB position and question the coaches decision.
Unless the coaches completely believe in Chad Kelly, it's my opinion, that he will not play.