Supes 2019 draft analysis

[Superman]

A little late, but I wanted to get this on the record before camp starts. These are my thoughts on the Colts draft. Just a disclaimer, any disagreement with any picks is just me expressing my opinion, not suggesting that the Colts are wrong or that I know any better than they do.

 

Trade: acquired 2/46 and a 2020 second rounder in exchange for 1/26, A-

Ballard and Co. telegraphed this for weeks, and explained it well. It’s easy to see that they had similar grades on a bunch of guys who they expected to fall anywhere between 20-40, and were willing to move back if they could get value. Getting a future second and still coming away with one of their desired guys is value. I can nitpick and say that they could have gotten another pick in the deal, but when you analyze this on any of the charts and adjust the future second, it comes out as a push, which is acceptable, especially since they  already had #34 from the Jets.

 

2/3 -- Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple, A-

This is a solid pick anyway you slice it. Great prospect on paper, good athlete, nice size profile, fits the length requirements Ballard looks for (77” wingspan). But on film, he’s physical, quick, aggressive, high intensity, fiercely competitive, and shows up in run support. His technique needs refinement in man and zone, but he still effectively blankets receivers in all areas. The physical traits and abilities are there, and he looks quicker than his workout numbers suggest. What I really like is that this pick appears to signify a tangible shift in defensive philosophy toward a scheme that will employ more diverse coverage schemes. There were other players I liked more, but as the draft unfolded their plan mostly made up for it.

 

2/17 -- Ben Banogu, Edge, TCU, C

Definitely a H/W/S prospect, his length and burst show up on film, what also shows up is a complete lack of refinement, virtually no technique as a pass rusher, and he’s not great in space. He should be able to handle edge responsibilities on early downs, from a two- or three-point stance. At first Ballard said he might be a Sam prospect (think Jamie Collins), but more recently, the coaches have suggested that he’ll be an end to start with. Apparently his college coaches did nothing to help him develop as a rusher -- which isn’t surprising, TCU doesn’t even use playbooks, I believe they didn’t teach technique -- so he still has a lot of upside, and being exposed to guys like Houston and hopefully Mathis will be great for him. I feel like there were better players available at multiple positions, and probably greater value to be gained even if Banogu was highly coveted. 

 

2/59 -- Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State, A

My favorite pick of the draft. I’ve been beating the drum for a YAC monster at receiver for a long time, and the Colts drafted one of the best YAC producers in this year’s draft. He’s quick and shifty, as a former RB he breaks weak tackles, a natural pass catcher (though he has some drops, they appear to be focus related, not a lack of ability), and he has elite deep speed. Not a lot of routes on tape, but his athletic profile, including his foot speed, balance and body positioning make for an understandable projection as a route running prospect. Major production in college, and he can return punts and kicks. On top of my excitement about the player, picking a receiver on Day 2 is a great value in this draft, and I like Campbell better than several receivers with higher profiles that went earlier than him. 

 

3/26 -- Bobby Okereke, LB, Stanford, B+

Another athlete with speed and length, but not technically refined. Rangy and with decent awareness in the passing game, not incredible in man coverage but seems to have the physical ability to handle himself in certain situations. He’s not a downhill run defender, will more likely evade blockers than take them on, yet he plays with a physicality and likes to hit ball carriers, using his closing speed to arrive with bad intentions. He’ll be a great special teamer, and he’s an obvious fit for the defense, assuming he takes to coaching. Good value at this spot in the draft, and he’ll add immediate competition in the LB room. (Side note: Hopefully the Colts got it right with the character evaluation, given the recent news that he was accused of sexual assault a few years ago at Stanford.)

 

4/7 -- Khari Willis, DB, Michigan State, C+

Good tackler, breaks down well in space, sometimes comes in too hot and overruns the play, could be better at shedding blocks, not afraid to show up in run support and lay a hit; decent awareness in the middle of the field, plays the ball instinctively and aggressively, has tenacity and active hands when the ball is arriving, only a moderately effective cover man but doesn’t back down; decent range but somewhat limited on the back end, much better closer to the line of scrimmage; team captain, from a big family, known as a hard worker, ultra competitive. It’s easy to see him as a rotational DB early on, but I don’t think he has a very high ceiling.

 

5/6 -- Marvell Tell, DB, USC, C+

Long, athletic, decent ability to play the ball in man coverage, good range and agility to close in different coverages, not a great tackler, lacks the awareness and refinement to stay in position as a single high safety, stuck between positions but an obvious prospect at corner, which is where the Colts are moving him. He looks like he’s at least a decent dime prospect, maybe has the potential to be a starter as he learns the position and refines his technique. This pick will look great in a couple years if the staff can maximize his potential at corner.

 

5/26 -- EJ Speed, LB, Tarleton State, INC

Who? It’s impossible to know whether another team would have taken him, requiring a fifth rounder on a small school unknown. But watching his highlight video, he lives up to his name -- he’s fast. He also has decent size and good length, so he’s another developmental guy with the traits the staff loves. I’m withholding a grade on this pick.

 

6/27 -- Gerri Green, Edge, Mississippi State, C-

An unimpressive athlete with the size profile of a tweener edge, but he plays with a tenacity that allows him to contribute, he has good strength and power, when he’s balanced he can defeat blockers with his upper body, good awareness including in space; they talked about him having some ability to play Sam but he looks like a sub DE, at best. They were most likely drawn to his intangibles, as he was a captain on a defense with several standout players, but everyone seemed to look up to Green. Not super thrilled about his prospects in the NFL, but he can definitely be a special teams maven right away.

 

7/26 -- Jackson Barton, T, Utah, B+

In late rounds, I think a great strategy is to go after players with desirable physical traits who might need technical refinement. Barton has prototypical LT size and length (he’s basically a cutout of Castonzo), and he moves pretty well on film, has good lateral range and change of direction, and looks natural climbing to the second level. His technical issues are many: bends at the waist, his feet get crossed up at times, he lacks the initial anchor to handle NFL bull rushers, definitely lacks the re-anchor to handle a speed-to-power rush. And while he has long arms, he doesn’t know how to use them, his hands and fit are out of sync, and as a result he tends to catch rushers rather than block them. This also shows up when blocking in space, as he tends to crash into defenders rather than block them effectively. He’s raw and needs a lot of refinement to play on Sundays, but the physical tools are there.

 

7/32 -- Javon Patterson, C, Ole Miss, B-

Looks like a solid prospect with upside as he gets stronger, he plays with reasonably good technique and he’s aggressive at the snap, good range and good feet, he can get better with his hands and his stance. He’s not going to challenge anyone for a starting spot, but he’s a guy to keep an eye on as a C/G combo, which is something of value on game day. He'll miss this year with an ACL, but he can still work on his upper body, and hopefully he doesn't lose his lateral ability when he comes back. 

 

What I think they did well: All told, I think the Colts added a lot of competition across the board. The DB room is now crowded, with multiple versatile players, they added some potential depth at OL, more speed at LB, a decent edge prospect, and an electrifying YAC receiver. I'm excited to see these guys in action soon.

 

What I think they missed on: No true pass rush prospect. I'm underwhelmed by Banogu and I'm not sure that what they saw before the draft is what they saw after they got him in the building, but he is an intriguing physical prospect who hasn't received a lot of coaching yet. They passed on better prospects (for various reasons, some are easily understandable -- Sweat might not have passed their medical, Tillery had a medical red flag, Simmons had medical and character concerns, etc.), then took a project player in the second. Between Banogu, Tell, Speed and Green, the coaches are going to be asked to develop some very raw talent right away.

[twfish]

I think the player to likely have the most Leonard'esque type year where they come out of nowhere is Banogu. It seems like the kid is coming in and working his tale off. He didnt take a summer break either because after the combine he started developing pass rush moves. I think this coaching staff and scouts are already pleasantly surprised by him. Especially if  we drafted him for one specific role and then he ends up being able to contribute at a much more valuable position. 

[Coffeedrinker]

Excellent write up as usual.  The only part I really disagree with is, I would switch the grades for Patterson and Barton.  But only because I give more weight to being technically sound vs ideal measurables, especially in the latter rounds.

[richard pallo]

Thanks for your analysis.  I really enjoyed reading it.  The Banogu and Willis picks intrigued me. They REALLY must have coveted those guys to go and draft them where they did.  Here's hoping they were right and they turn into solid starters.  I am truly excited to see how this class turns out.  Lots of potential and upside for sure.  

[Superman]

58 minutes ago, twfish said:

I think the player to likely have the most Leonard'esque type year where they come out of nowhere is Banogu.

 

Something else they have in common: I didn't understand the Leonard pick last year, and I'm not super excited about Banogu this year. Hopefully I'm wrong about him just like I was wrong about Leonard.

[Fisticuffs111]

Good stuff here. 

I agree most of all with your take on Banogu, but I might be even a little a lower on him. I'm always worried about pass rushers who need so much coaching up regardless of how coachable he seems, which is a redeeming quality for him. He's the guy I'll be keeping an eye on most for updates during TC.

I think your spot on with your last take that this draft is a huge test for the coaches. 

[Superman]

54 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Excellent write up as usual.  The only part I really disagree with is, I would switch the grades for Patterson and Barton.  But only because I give more weight to being technically sound vs ideal measurables, especially in the latter rounds.

 

That's reasonable, and there have been tons of players with outstanding physical traits who couldn't put it together on the field. But Barton has rare size and movement ability, something you don't often find late in the draft, and if Mudd and Strausser know what they're doing, this is the kind of player that can really turn into something. Like, starting caliber LT, based on his traits. 

 

Then again, he might just be another H/W/S guy who never develops into an actual NFL player.

 

I feel like Patterson's ceiling is probably decent spot starter / swing backup. 

[DougDew]

Thanks for the analysis, Superman.  A few comments.

 

First, as far as some forum comments regarding Leonard vs Banogu in terms of a prospect, I disagree with the notion that Leonard was an unknown.  I think he was the second best "lighter-weight, rangy" ILB prospect coming out of the draft behind Roquan Smith.  It was the fact that he came from SCState that made him the unknown to many, IMO.  I think if many would have looked at the tape closely before the draft, his selection at the top of the second made more sense.  OTOH, I think many saw Banogu's tape and still question the value of higher-mid second round.

 

I pretty much like the same picks as Superman (defining non-likes as below a B grade), and basically aligned the picks that way by the end of the draft.

 

@Superman, I think your description of Willis reads more favorable than your overall grade.  I think the defense needs a stronger tackling S than a coverage S (outside of a zone window), and that aligns more with what I think Willis' skills are.  Is it the lack of a high ceiling that pushes him down? 

 

As far as the trade, at the time, I said I thought Ballard could have gotten more than just a second round next year from the Skins.  Then he ended up getting an extra 5th by trading down three spots from 46 to 49, so that minor slide accumulated the capital I thought we should have had a day earlier.  It evened out by the next day.  

[Fluke_33]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

Barton has prototypical LT size and length (he’s basically a cutout of Castonzo)

 

Big enough to stop a concert?

 

Best Castonzo moment of all time:

 

 

[shasta519]

Great write up...and I agree wrt Banogu and Willis.

 

Personally, I have Tell a bit higher...because I love his potential for sub packages.

 

Overall, I liked the draft.

[Smonroe]

57 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

 

Big enough to stop a concert?

 

Best Castonzo moment of all time:

 

 

 

That's hilarious!  I hope he's there for his kids...

[Superman]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

I disagree with the notion that Leonard was an unknown.  I think he was the second best "lighter-weight, rangy" ILB prospect coming out of the draft behind Roquan Smith.  It was the fact that he came from SCState that made him the unknown to many, IMO.  I think if many would have looked at the tape closely before the draft, his selection at the top of the second made more sense.  OTOH, I think many saw Banogu's tape and still question the value of higher-mid second round.

 

That's fair, but I didn't have a problem with Leonard because of he was lesser known. It was because I thought he would have been available later in the draft. I think a couple other teams were later connected to him, so he might not have been available. More importantly, he definitely lived up to his draft status, if not, more, as a rookie. The Colts staff was absolutely right to take him where they did, and my concern was unfounded.

 

Maybe a harsh grade for Willis, I like some of his traits, I just think he'll be limited as a cover man (Geathers?), and he's more of an undersized LB than a good DB prospect. If they carve out a role for him, great, but his work in coverage is concerning, and I think it limits his potential.

 

On the trade, I don't think the charts always hold up as gospel, especially when you include a future year's pick, but the trade works on every chart. If you don't downgrade the future pick, the trade is a clear win for the Colts; I downgrade future picks, so to me, the trade is a push. I think there's precedent in previous years that suggests they could have gotten an extra pick also, but I don't think that really changes the value of the trade by very much. 

 

Good post, btw.

 

1 hour ago, shastamasta said:

Great write up...and I agree wrt Banogu and Willis.

 

Personally, I have Tell a bit higher...because I love his potential for sub packages.

 

Overall, I liked the draft.

 

What do you see them doing with Tell?

[BigQungus]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

Thanks for the analysis, Superman.  A few comments.

 

First, as far as some forum comments regarding Leonard vs Banogu in terms of a prospect, I disagree with the notion that Leonard was an unknown.  I think he was the second best "lighter-weight, rangy" ILB prospect coming out of the draft behind Roquan Smith.  It was the fact that he came from SCState that made him the unknown to many, IMO.  I think if many would have looked at the tape closely before the draft, his selection at the top of the second made more sense.  OTOH, I think many saw Banogu's tape and still question the value of higher-mid second round.

 

I pretty much like the same picks as Superman (defining non-likes as below a B grade), and basically aligned the picks that way by the end of the draft.

 

@Superman, I think your description of Willis reads more favorable than your overall grade.  I think the defense needs a stronger tackling S than a coverage S (outside of a zone window), and that aligns more with what I think Willis' skills are.  Is it the lack of a high ceiling that pushes him down? 

 

As far as the trade, at the time, I said I thought Ballard could have gotten more than just a second round next year from the Skins.  Then he ended up getting an extra 5th by trading down three spots from 46 to 49, so that minor slide accumulated the capital I thought we should have had a day earlier.  It evened out by the next day.  

 

I agree with the bolded

[DougDew]

51 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

That's fair, but I didn't have a problem with Leonard because of he was lesser known. It was because I thought he would have been available later in the draft. I think a couple other teams were later connected to him, so he might not have been available. More importantly, he definitely lived up to his draft status, if not, more, as a rookie. The Colts staff was absolutely right to take him where they did, and my concern was unfounded.

 

As far as looking at all second round picks over the past two drafts as a single group, the players taken at the top are early starters and the players taken later seem more developmental, or better said, situational.

 

The picks of Benogu, Lewis, and Turay have had their share of critics, citing potentially being overdrafted compared to where they maybe could have been selected.  It seems they fit into the mold of excelling in certain situations or packages and not necessarily viewed as future 3 down players, like Leonard, Smith, and Ya-Sin.  Ballard may be ahead of the NFL in this respect and placed a higher value on those players than what the convention would normally place on them.  It was probably planned to look for those players at those spots as part of an overall draft philosophy towards the pass rush.

 

Parris Campbell was probably just a steal at the spot he was drafted.

[NewColtsFan]

 

Why in Heaven's name are people grumbling about WHERE Leonard was drafted.    Not only has he justified the pick,  he has far exceeded any and all expectations.     And yet here we are with posters saying we could've gotten him later in the round or later than that.

 

I can't tell which is worse.....     the ignorance?    Or the arrogance?

 

Even when we do things right....    clearly and obviously right,   there are posters complaining we didn't do it good enough.

 

Dear God!              

[Lucky Colts Fan]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

Why in Heaven's name are people grumbling about WHERE Leonard was drafted.    Not only has he justified the pick,  he has far exceeded any and all expectations.     And yet here we are with posters saying we could've gotten him later in the round or later than that.

 

I can't tell which is worse.....     the ignorance?    Or the arrogance?

 

Even when we do things right....    clearly and obviously right,   there are posters complaining we didn't do it good enough.

 

Dear God!              

 

 

What people are you talking about?

 

This was the only quote in this thread I could find that fits:

2 hours ago, Superman said:

That's fair, but I didn't have a problem with Leonard because of he was lesser known. It was because I thought he would have been available later in the draft. I think a couple other teams were later connected to him, so he might not have been available. More importantly, he definitely lived up to his draft status, if not, more, as a rookie. The Colts staff was absolutely right to take him where they did, and my concern was unfounded.

 

and Supe said he was wrong because Leonard lived up to his pick and the Colts got it right...  Unless I missed something, this seems like a bit of an overreaction.  

[1959Colts]

7 hours ago, Superman said:

 

...I feel like Patterson's ceiling is probably decent spot starter / swing backup. 

 

Not sure if it was mentioned? 

...but Patterson is out for the year.

 

https://www.colts.com/news/rookie-center-javon-patterson-out-for-year-with-acl-injury

 

INDIANAPOLIS — Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich said Tuesday that rookie center Javon Patterson will miss the 2019 season after suffering an injury to his ACL.

 

"Unfortunately Javon Patterson did sustain an ACL injury, so he’ll be out for the year," Reich told reporters. "Tough break for him, but one of the things we know about Javon: a high-character guy. We’ve talked to him and will give him all the support he needs.

 

"He’ll rehab and get ready to go for next year."

 

Patterson was the Colts' seventh-round (246th-overall) pick in this year's NFL Draft out of Ole Miss.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, 1959Colts said:

 

Not sure if it was mentioned? 

...but Patterson is out for the year.

 

https://www.colts.com/news/rookie-center-javon-patterson-out-for-year-with-acl-injury

 

INDIANAPOLIS — Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich said Tuesday that rookie center Javon Patterson will miss the 2019 season after suffering an injury to his ACL.

 

"Unfortunately Javon Patterson did sustain an ACL injury, so he’ll be out for the year," Reich told reporters. "Tough break for him, but one of the things we know about Javon: a high-character guy. We’ve talked to him and will give him all the support he needs.

 

"He’ll rehab and get ready to go for next year."

 

Patterson was the Colts' seventh-round (246th-overall) pick in this year's NFL Draft out of Ole Miss.

 

Yeah, I mentioned it. I'm sure he'll spend plenty of time in the weight room for the next few months, though.

[superrep1967]

12 hours ago, twfish said:

I think the player to likely have the most Leonard'esque type year where they come out of nowhere is Banogu. It seems like the kid is coming in and working his tale off. He didnt take a summer break either because after the combine he started developing pass rush moves. I think this coaching staff and scouts are already pleasantly surprised by him. Especially if  we drafted him for one specific role and then he ends up being able to contribute at a much more valuable position. 

Yeah, Banogu or to me it's Okereke. 

[NewColtsFan]

4 hours ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

 

What people are you talking about?

 

This was the only quote in this thread I could find that fits:

 

and Supe said he was wrong because Leonard lived up to his pick and the Colts got it right...  Unless I missed something, this seems like a bit of an overreaction.  

 

Fair post.   Good post.    My bad.    I know what I did wrong,  but no need to rehash it.    I was wrong.     Apologies to all, especially @Superman who I accidentally offended.

 

[EastStreet]

15 minutes ago, superrep1967 said:

Yeah, Banogu or to me it's Okereke. 

Leonard was a stat monster, 1st team all conf multiple years, conference D MVP multiple years. Banogu was 1st team all conf mult years and great stats. Okereke at best was honorary mention. 

 

Leonard was a small school question mark. Banogu comes from a team that's known for scheme and lack of technique/position coaching. But both were tops in their conference. Okereke was much less of a standout at a school known to have great S&C and defensive coaching.

 

Not saying Okereke won't be good, or even great. What I am saying, is, Okereke had much better S&C, much better coaching, etc. (than the other two), but never achieved the recognition or performance level of the other two. I simply think his ceiling is lower. I definitely think Banogu has the most potential to translate over the next couple years.

[shasta519]

23 hours ago, Superman said:

 

That's fair, but I didn't have a problem with Leonard because of he was lesser known. It was because I thought he would have been available later in the draft. I think a couple other teams were later connected to him, so he might not have been available. More importantly, he definitely lived up to his draft status, if not, more, as a rookie. The Colts staff was absolutely right to take him where they did, and my concern was unfounded.

 

Maybe a harsh grade for Willis, I like some of his traits, I just think he'll be limited as a cover man (Geathers?), and he's more of an undersized LB than a good DB prospect. If they carve out a role for him, great, but his work in coverage is concerning, and I think it limits his potential.

 

On the trade, I don't think the charts always hold up as gospel, especially when you include a future year's pick, but the trade works on every chart. If you don't downgrade the future pick, the trade is a clear win for the Colts; I downgrade future picks, so to me, the trade is a push. I think there's precedent in previous years that suggests they could have gotten an extra pick also, but I don't think that really changes the value of the trade by very much. 

 

Good post, btw.

 

 

What do you see them doing with Tell?

 

To start...they probably try him at dime CB (with an eye toward competing with Wilson). He's pretty wiry right now. If that goes well...I could see him as working toward a boundary CB job.

 

But I think (or hope) he ends up back at S. The guy is a an absolute freak athlete...tall, long, huge hands, fast, quick, can jump out of the building....all of it. Guys like that typicallly go much earlier than the 5th round...I think teams weren't sure what to do with him because of his frame.

 

But I think he is a big play machine waiting to happen. So my hope is that they put him on an NFL strength program to add to his frame. If he could pack on 15 lbs (easier said than done...but not impossible)...he's basically the size and athletic profile of Derwin James (or insert athletic S)...and an ideal player for today's NFL. 

 

If Tell gets bigger/stronger and improves his tackling...I think his upside is sky high. Has the size/bust/athleticism and coverage skills to man up against TEs...or roam around and make plays in the short-intermediate zones. (He had a pick in college against USC where he closed on a short route so fast...not many guys can make that play).

 

I love his upside as a S (but admittedly I am a traits guy)...but it's going to take work to get there. I hope he can stick cause right now he's likely buried on the depth chart. 

 

 

[Rally5]

On 7/15/2019 at 11:51 AM, Superman said:

A little late, but I wanted to get this on the record before camp starts. These are my thoughts on the Colts draft. Just a disclaimer, any disagreement with any picks is just me expressing my opinion, not suggesting that the Colts are wrong or that I know any better than they do.

 

Trade: acquired 2/46 and a 2020 second rounder in exchange for 1/26, A-

Ballard and Co. telegraphed this for weeks, and explained it well. It’s easy to see that they had similar grades on a bunch of guys who they expected to fall anywhere between 20-40, and were willing to move back if they could get value. Getting a future second and still coming away with one of their desired guys is value. I can nitpick and say that they could have gotten another pick in the deal, but when you analyze this on any of the charts and adjust the future second, it comes out as a push, which is acceptable, especially since they  already had #34 from the Jets.

 

2/3 -- Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple, A-

This is a solid pick anyway you slice it. Great prospect on paper, good athlete, nice size profile, fits the length requirements Ballard looks for (77” wingspan). But on film, he’s physical, quick, aggressive, high intensity, fiercely competitive, and shows up in run support. His technique needs refinement in man and zone, but he still effectively blankets receivers in all areas. The physical traits and abilities are there, and he looks quicker than his workout numbers suggest. What I really like is that this pick appears to signify a tangible shift in defensive philosophy toward a scheme that will employ more diverse coverage schemes. There were other players I liked more, but as the draft unfolded their plan mostly made up for it.

 

2/17 -- Ben Banogu, Edge, TCU, C

Definitely a H/W/S prospect, his length and burst show up on film, what also shows up is a complete lack of refinement, virtually no technique as a pass rusher, and he’s not great in space. He should be able to handle edge responsibilities on early downs, from a two- or three-point stance. At first Ballard said he might be a Sam prospect (think Jamie Collins), but more recently, the coaches have suggested that he’ll be an end to start with. Apparently his college coaches did nothing to help him develop as a rusher -- which isn’t surprising, TCU doesn’t even use playbooks, I believe they didn’t teach technique -- so he still has a lot of upside, and being exposed to guys like Houston and hopefully Mathis will be great for him. I feel like there were better players available at multiple positions, and probably greater value to be gained even if Banogu was highly coveted. 

 

2/59 -- Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State, A

My favorite pick of the draft. I’ve been beating the drum for a YAC monster at receiver for a long time, and the Colts drafted one of the best YAC producers in this year’s draft. He’s quick and shifty, as a former RB he breaks weak tackles, a natural pass catcher (though he has some drops, they appear to be focus related, not a lack of ability), and he has elite deep speed. Not a lot of routes on tape, but his athletic profile, including his foot speed, balance and body positioning make for an understandable projection as a route running prospect. Major production in college, and he can return punts and kicks. On top of my excitement about the player, picking a receiver on Day 2 is a great value in this draft, and I like Campbell better than several receivers with higher profiles that went earlier than him. 

 

3/26 -- Bobby Okereke, LB, Stanford, B+

Another athlete with speed and length, but not technically refined. Rangy and with decent awareness in the passing game, not incredible in man coverage but seems to have the physical ability to handle himself in certain situations. He’s not a downhill run defender, will more likely evade blockers than take them on, yet he plays with a physicality and likes to hit ball carriers, using his closing speed to arrive with bad intentions. He’ll be a great special teamer, and he’s an obvious fit for the defense, assuming he takes to coaching. Good value at this spot in the draft, and he’ll add immediate competition in the LB room. (Side note: Hopefully the Colts got it right with the character evaluation, given the recent news that he was accused of sexual assault a few years ago at Stanford.)

 

4/7 -- Khari Willis, DB, Michigan State, C+

Good tackler, breaks down well in space, sometimes comes in too hot and overruns the play, could be better at shedding blocks, not afraid to show up in run support and lay a hit; decent awareness in the middle of the field, plays the ball instinctively and aggressively, has tenacity and active hands when the ball is arriving, only a moderately effective cover man but doesn’t back down; decent range but somewhat limited on the back end, much better closer to the line of scrimmage; team captain, from a big family, known as a hard worker, ultra competitive. It’s easy to see him as a rotational DB early on, but I don’t think he has a very high ceiling.

 

5/6 -- Marvell Tell, DB, USC, C+

Long, athletic, decent ability to play the ball in man coverage, good range and agility to close in different coverages, not a great tackler, lacks the awareness and refinement to stay in position as a single high safety, stuck between positions but an obvious prospect at corner, which is where the Colts are moving him. He looks like he’s at least a decent dime prospect, maybe has the potential to be a starter as he learns the position and refines his technique. This pick will look great in a couple years if the staff can maximize his potential at corner.

 

5/26 -- EJ Speed, LB, Tarleton State, INC

Who? It’s impossible to know whether another team would have taken him, requiring a fifth rounder on a small school unknown. But watching his highlight video, he lives up to his name -- he’s fast. He also has decent size and good length, so he’s another developmental guy with the traits the staff loves. I’m withholding a grade on this pick.

 

6/27 -- Gerri Green, Edge, Mississippi State, C-

An unimpressive athlete with the size profile of a tweener edge, but he plays with a tenacity that allows him to contribute, he has good strength and power, when he’s balanced he can defeat blockers with his upper body, good awareness including in space; they talked about him having some ability to play Sam but he looks like a sub DE, at best. They were most likely drawn to his intangibles, as he was a captain on a defense with several standout players, but everyone seemed to look up to Green. Not super thrilled about his prospects in the NFL, but he can definitely be a special teams maven right away.

 

7/26 -- Jackson Barton, T, Utah, B+

In late rounds, I think a great strategy is to go after players with desirable physical traits who might need technical refinement. Barton has prototypical LT size and length (he’s basically a cutout of Castonzo), and he moves pretty well on film, has good lateral range and change of direction, and looks natural climbing to the second level. His technical issues are many: bends at the waist, his feet get crossed up at times, he lacks the initial anchor to handle NFL bull rushers, definitely lacks the re-anchor to handle a speed-to-power rush. And while he has long arms, he doesn’t know how to use them, his hands and fit are out of sync, and as a result he tends to catch rushers rather than block them. This also shows up when blocking in space, as he tends to crash into defenders rather than block them effectively. He’s raw and needs a lot of refinement to play on Sundays, but the physical tools are there.

 

7/32 -- Javon Patterson, C, Ole Miss, B-

Looks like a solid prospect with upside as he gets stronger, he plays with reasonably good technique and he’s aggressive at the snap, good range and good feet, he can get better with his hands and his stance. He’s not going to challenge anyone for a starting spot, but he’s a guy to keep an eye on as a C/G combo, which is something of value on game day. He'll miss this year with an ACL, but he can still work on his upper body, and hopefully he doesn't lose his lateral ability when he comes back. 

 

What I think they did well: All told, I think the Colts added a lot of competition across the board. The DB room is now crowded, with multiple versatile players, they added some potential depth at OL, more speed at LB, a decent edge prospect, and an electrifying YAC receiver. I'm excited to see these guys in action soon.

 

What I think they missed on: No true pass rush prospect. I'm underwhelmed by Banogu and I'm not sure that what they saw before the draft is what they saw after they got him in the building, but he is an intriguing physical prospect who hasn't received a lot of coaching yet. They passed on better prospects (for various reasons, some are easily understandable -- Sweat might not have passed their medical, Tillery had a medical red flag, Simmons had medical and character concerns, etc.), then took a project player in the second. Between Banogu, Tell, Speed and Green, the coaches are going to be asked to develop some very raw talent right away.

I've been waiting all off season for this!!!  I know you're dying to know the grade I give your grades...last year's B+ is this years B+ again IMO!   I'm glad you put some criticisms out there, I'm not sure this draft is quite as awesome as many are making it out to be.  I do like all your grades except Okereke, I watched all his tape, there's a ton if it out there and I'm just underwhelmed.  Of course, I want to be wrong,  to be clear, I hope he's a stud but his instincts are just awful at times, not to mention the off-field stuff.  It does seem like we fell in love with physical traits this draft, I hope we can mold most of these guys into something.  Lot's of projects here which just lowers an already challenging success rate for draft picks.  Anyway, thanks as always for doing this and thanks for having some honest takes on these guys.  Go Colts!

[coltsfeva]

    I have to admit, I thought they’d get a run-stuffing DT and was disappointed when they didn’t go after one. With the exception of Campbell, I was scratching my head on this draft.

    But after seeing their reactions (Reich’s 4” for 4” comment), it’s clear they see something there.

     If Leonard, Walker, Geathers, Hooker, Desir, Wilson or Moore go down, they probably have better depth.

  If all (or most) stay healthy, there’s probably some players that could improve special teams and step up, if/when needed.

  And having Campbell provides that YAC receiver, we’ve been missing.

[Superman]

17 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

To start...they probably try him at dime CB (with an eye toward competing with Wilson). He's pretty wiry right now. If that goes well...I could see him as working toward a boundary CB job.

 

But I think (or hope) he ends up back at S. The guy is a an absolute freak athlete...tall, long, huge hands, fast, quick, can jump out of the building....all of it. Guys like that typicallly go much earlier than the 5th round...I think teams weren't sure what to do with him because of his frame.

 

But I think he is a big play machine waiting to happen. So my hope is that they put him on an NFL strength program to add to his frame. If he could pack on 15 lbs (easier said than done...but not impossible)...he's basically the size and athletic profile of Derwin James (or insert athletic S)...and an ideal player for today's NFL. 

 

If Tell gets bigger/stronger and improves his tackling...I think his upside is sky high. Has the size/bust/athleticism and coverage skills to man up against TEs...or roam around and make plays in the short-intermediate zones. (He had a pick in college against USC where he closed on a short route so fast...not many guys can make that play).

 

I love his upside as a S (but admittedly I am a traits guy)...but it's going to take work to get there. I hope he can stick cause right now he's likely buried on the depth chart. 

 

I think Tell has really good movement ability, and I wonder if he'd still have the range and change of direction if he was bigger. I also don't project him ever becoming more than a serviceable tackler, especially as a safety. I think he'll be fine at corner, but I wouldn't want to rely on him to make solo stops on the back end, especially in the run game. If he started to show that kind of ability, I'd feel better about putting him at safety, but when I watch him, I see why they want to try him at corner. Same reasons Ballard wanted Green at corner, but Green had no ball awareness, was reckless, and didn't want to work (apparently). 

[Superman]

16 hours ago, Rally5 said:

It does seem like we fell in love with physical traits this draft, I hope we can mold most of these guys into something.  Lot's of projects here which just lowers an already challenging success rate for draft picks. 

 

I definitely agree with this. That being the case, if Ballard and his staff really identified players who will put in the work, and if the coaching staff can really teach and develop young players, then maybe they'll get something out of those project players. 

 

And by the way, outside of Banogu, I don't think the other picks are so raw that it's difficult to project what they can become. Like Barton, he needs a lot of technical work, but we've seen lots of OL refine their technique in the NFL. Okereke seemed a little out of control at times, if you put him in a sub package at Will, he should be fine. 

 

I like that no one in this draft is being penciled into a starting spot. I think everyone will get sub reps and be allowed to gradually get into the rotation (including Rock, although I think he's talented enough to start whenever they want him to.)

 

And I'm good with the traits based pursuit, because they went after traits that I think our team has been in need of for a long time. The defense needed speed and length, and they've been adding that for three years now. We needed a YAC receiver, Campbell is exactly that. Now the coaches have to earn their money. Coach 'em up, use 'em right. If they do, I could see this draft class being a hit in two years. Fingers crossed...

[shasta519]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I think Tell has really good movement ability, and I wonder if he'd still have the range and change of direction if he was bigger. I also don't project him ever becoming more than a serviceable tackler, especially as a safety. I think he'll be fine at corner, but I wouldn't want to rely on him to make solo stops on the back end, especially in the run game. If he started to show that kind of ability, I'd feel better about putting him at safety, but when I watch him, I see why they want to try him at corner. Same reasons Ballard wanted Green at corner, but Green had no ball awareness, was reckless, and didn't want to work (apparently). 

 

TJ Green is a good comp athletically...but I think Tell is more fluid. His 3 cone drill is faster than just about any WR you will find. You can see it in his INT returns as well...he just moves really well. 

 

And to your point...he can actually cover and track the ball. Whatever his role...I would prefer he is roaming the field on passing downs where he can use his speed and range. I think that athleticism might get wasted a bit on the boundary...especially as a Cover 2 CB (though from reports...it does seem like those outside CBs will be playing more man). 

 

I know they worked him out multiple times...so they did their due diligence...and have a plan. I just can't wait to see how he plays at this level. He's arguably the most athletic person on both sides of the field when he's out there.

[Superman]

9 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

I know they worked him out multiple times...so they did their due diligence...and have a plan. I just can't wait to see how he plays at this level. He's arguably the most athletic person on both sides of the field when he's out there.

 

I like that there's evidently a clear plan for developing and using him, and I think that's true for everyone they added this year. We'll see how it plays out, but I expect that they'll be trying to put guys in position to excel, not trying to force them to do something they aren't good at.

 

I think this shows with the Funchess signing. Definitely not my favorite acquisition, and I wanted them to go in a different direction, but Warren Sharp posted splits showing how Funchess performed on certain routes, and compared it with how Luck produces when throwing to those routes. It seems like an ideal match for our offense, and I think the front office and coaching staff identified that together, and went out and got him. I don't think they'll ask him to be a downfield burner, I think they're going to use him on curls, outs, and maybe slants, and I think it's going to add a dimension to the offense, especially on big downs when defenses play tight man coverage. 

 

If they took a similar approach with the players they drafted -- what's the plan for this guy on our team, and how do we develop his traits so that he can excel in this role? -- it will show in the way they use them right away. Tell, Campbell, Willis, Banogu... all have traits that can be tapped into right away.

[Coltsfan66]

On 7/15/2019 at 1:25 PM, Superman said:

 

Something else they have in common: I didn't understand the Leonard pick last year, and I'm not super excited about Banogu this year. Hopefully I'm wrong about him just like I was wrong about Leonard.

I think most of us were wrong about Leonard, thankfully!

[Coltsfan66]

A very nice write up and I agree about Paris!