Best member of last nine draft classes - Wilson over Luck?!?!?

[Lucky Colts Fan]

russell-wilson-jj-watt-among-best-of-past-nine-draft-classes

 

Adam Schein of NFL.com gives his best picks of the past nine drafts.

 

Quenton Nelson is the best pick of the 2018 draft.

 

Quote

2018: Quenton Nelson, LG, Indianapolis Colts

Drafted: Round 1, No. 6 overall.

How about this class? Consider that I voted for Nelson, Giants running back Saquon Barkley (No. 2 overall), Chargers safety Derwin James (No. 17 overall), Cowboys linebacker Leighton Vander Esch(No. 19 overall) and Colts linebacker Darius Leonard(Round 2, No. 36 overall) to be first-team All-Pros -- as rookies! Nelson, James and Leonard won the honor, while Leonard was also the Defensive Rookie of the Year. Meanwhile, Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (No. 1 overall) could've easily been Offensive Rookie of the Year instead of Barkley. And I still think the other quarterbacks selected in the first round -- the Jets' Sam Darnold (No. 3 overall), the Bills' Josh Allen (No. 7), the Ravens' Lamar Jackson (No. 32) and No. 10 overall choice Josh Rosen (now with the Dolphins but drafted by the Cardinals) -- have greatness attached.

But here's my early prediction for Nelson: He'll be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. And I'm not just overreacting to a rookie year in which he gave Colts QB Andrew Luck time; this is consistent with a prediction for him that a GM gave me when Nelson was coming out of Notre Dame. It's only been a year, but Nelson has shown he has the physical and mental tools to become one of the best offensive guards to ever play in the NFL. What a steal by GM Chris Ballard, nabbing a building block like that after five other players had already come off the board.

 

The real head-scratcher is that he chose Russell Wilson over Andrew Luck for the best pick of the 2012 class.

 

Quote

First overall pick Andrew Luck has been sensational as the Colts' quarterback; he's more talented than Wilson, and I would take Luck over Wilson as the better down-the-road bet. In fact, if I were writing this a few years from now, I would likely go in a different direction with this choice.

 

But Wilson's had a better career thus far than Luck.

 

Just because that Seahawks D carried Wilson to a few SBs, he gets the nod for a "better career" so far, so he's a better draft pick?  C'mon Adam...  

[CR91]

I think injuries come into play as well. To my knowledge, Wilson has not missed a game.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Wilson has never came close to passing for 40 TD's in a season. Luck has done it. When Wilson won the SB, Lynch and his defense carried him to that win. I am just speaking facts. Wilson is very good, maybe great but he isn't better than Luck. Luck has made the playoffs 4 times and he has played in a conference that has had Brady, Manning, and Big Ben to get through. Add Mahomes to that list too as of last year. The AFC has been a loaded conference for years. In Luck's rookie year he faced Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in the playoffs on the road  . Here is a question, did Wilson ever beat Tom Brady to win a SB? Answer is no. Luck has to go through that guy every year. 

[CR91]

3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Wilson has never came close to passing for 40 TD's in a season. Luck has done it. When Wilson won the SB, Lynch and his defense carried him to that win. I am just speaking facts. Wilson is very good, maybe great but he isn't better than Luck. Luck has made the playoffs 4 times and he has played in a conference that has had Brady, Manning, and Big Ben to get through. Add Mahomes to that list too as of last year. The AFC has been a loaded conference for years. In Luck's rookie year he faced Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in the playoffs on the road  . Here is a question, did Wilson ever beat Tom Brady to win a SB? Answer is no. Luck has to go through that guy every year. 

 

give the ball to Lynch 

 

My wife could have made that call and she doesn't even watch football

[Superman]

1 hour ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

Just because that Seahawks D carried Wilson to a few SBs, he gets the nod for a "better career" so far, so he's a better draft pick?  C'mon Adam...  

 

Colts fans undermine Wilson almost as much as Seahawks fans undermine Luck. They're both great.

 

What probably tips the scales in Wilson's favor for this discussion is three things: a) Wilson has not missed a game; b) Wilson has been to two SB and has won one (and was the most important player on the field for his team both times); and c) he was a third rounder, representing a tremendous value for the Seahawks.

 

I'd rather have Luck and wouldn't change what we did in that draft, but saying Wilson has had a better career or even grading him as a better draft pick doesn't bother me.

[2006Coltsbestever]

18 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

give the ball to Lynch 

 

My wife could have made that call and she doesn't even watch football

That was just terrible, I know but Wilson didn't. He decided to throw into traffic instead  . We can blame the Coach for that but Wilson could've audible'd out of that and even ran himself. That play was the worst I have ever seen in SB history. That makes Peyton's INT in SB 44 look normal, that is how bad that INT by Wilson was. People can say Butler made a great play blah blah. Pass should've never been thrown and that is obvious to me and most people. Seahawks even had a timeout left LOL.

[2006Coltsbestever]

8 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Colts fans undermine Wilson almost as much as Seahawks fans undermine Luck. They're both great.

 

What probably tips the scales in Wilson's favor for this discussion is three things: a) Wilson has not missed a game; b) Wilson has been to two SB and has won one (and was the most important player on the field for his team both times); and c) he was a third rounder, representing a tremendous value for the Seahawks.

 

I'd rather have Luck and wouldn't change what we did in that draft, but saying Wilson has had a better career or even grading him as a better draft pick doesn't bother me.

With me it is not really undermining Wilson, I just think Luck is better. Wilson has never been injured so he has that. Regarding the SB win, Lynch was the most important player on that offense. If Wilson didn't have him, there would not of been a SB win. That is just my opinion but many would agree with me on that. Wilson also had a top 10 defense of all-time to help him out. Wilson is very good to great but Luck is better IMO.

[chad72]

26 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

What probably tips the scales in Wilson's favor for this discussion is three things: a) Wilson has not missed a game; b) Wilson has been to two SB and has won one (and was the most important player on the field for his team both times)

 

 

How instrumental were the running game and D in Wilson's trips to the SB and in contrast, what kind of run game and D support did Luck receive in the same time frame? That is what makes it so hard to contrast. The availability part definitely is in RW's favor for sure.

 

Once he has had to carry the burden of winning more on his arm, RW's team success is not the same w.r.t the playoff wins and SB appearances.

[Creekside]

                              Att       Comp %       ave yds       TD / INT      sacks      Fum lost      Rate

     

      Wilson         3,261         64.2              7.9            196 / 63        299              16            100.3

        Luck           3,290         60.8              7.2            171 / 83        174              18              89.5

 

      The two QB's have almost identical career attempts. I like Luck, be he's not the better QB.

 

         

 

 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, egg said:

                              Att       Comp %       ave yds       TD / INT      sacks      Fum lost      Rate

     

      Wilson         3,261         64.2              7.9            196 / 63        299              16            100.3

        Luck           3,290         60.8              7.2            171 / 83        174              18              89.5

 

      The two QB's have almost identical career attempts. I like Luck, be he's not the better QB.

 

Attempts per game will show you the disparity in usage. Luck has missed 26 games in his career, Wilson hasn't missed any. Wilson has 29 attempts/game, Luck has 38.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, chad72 said:

 

How instrumental were the running game and D in Wilson's trips to the SB and in contrast, what kind of run game and D support did Luck receive in the same time frame? That is what makes it so hard to contrast. The availability part definitely is in RW's favor for sure.

Yeah I went and looked up Wilson's stats during his SB run. He threw for only 524 yards in 3 games and had just 3 TDs. That is an average of 175 yards per game passing and 1 TD a game. They were a run 1st team back then. Lynch averaged nearly 100 yards a game in that SB winning run. Did Wilson mess things up, no but he wasn't the main reason why they won a SB either. If people think that then that is like saying Peyton was in 2015 with Denver  . It was Denver's defense being the main reason why they won in 2015, Peyton just played good enough and didn't screw anything up.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

russell-wilson-jj-watt-among-best-of-past-nine-draft-classes

 

Adam Schein of NFL.com gives his best picks of the past nine drafts.

 

Quenton Nelson is the best pick of the 2018 draft.

 

 

The real head-scratcher is that he chose Russell Wilson over Andrew Luck for the best pick of the 2012 class.

 

 

Just because that Seahawks D carried Wilson to a few SBs, he gets the nod for a "better career" so far, so he's a better draft pick?  C'mon Adam...  

 

The writer says Luck is the better player, and even says that Luck would likely be the pick going forward now that he’s healthy again.   He picked Wilson because he’s had a better career.   Won a Super Bowl.   I’m ok with that.

 

Lucks injuries and being surrounded by a poorer quality team have taken a toll.   Rankings like this are a reflection of that.

[Creekside]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

Attempts per game will show you the disparity in usage. Luck has missed 26 games in his career, Wilson hasn't missed any. Wilson has 29 attempts/game, Luck has 38.

 

I know......but how does "disparity in usage" effect performance? Luck is relied on more?

[Lucky Colts Fan]

9 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

He picked Wilson because he’s had a better career.   Won a Super Bowl.

 

My issue is that he doesn't apply that logic to any of the other years.

 

Von Miller helped his team win a SB and even has a SB MVP, but he gives Watt the nod as the "better pick".

 

Other players than the ones he picked in the other years have "better careers" to this point because they were on better teams.  But this is supposed to be about the individual player, right?

[NannyMcafee]

Getting tired of the praise QBs get for SB wins or appearances. Completely disrespectful to the rest of the staff and players. A QB should be measured by what he does on and off the field. What do his stats look like? How is he pre-snap? What is his pocket awareness like? How accurate is he? How many turnovers does he have? Yards, and scores? 

 

Dont give me the whole "QBs get more blame and fame" statement. Wilson never gets blamed for throwing an INT to end the SB. That completely and utterly falls on the HC. 

 

This is why I wont say Brady is the GOAT. The only argument made is he has more rings. There arent a lot of stats to back up him being the greatest or anyone for that matter. Besides. You cant say someone is the greatest until the NFL ends its reign in sports. When there is no more NFL, or players to play it, then we can talk about the GOAT. Because it is a stat of all time, afterall. 

 

It takes a great QB, a great GM and  great HC, to pull off a dynasty. New England has done so. They are all great together. That doesn't mean Brady is the goat or Bill is the goat. Without each other, none of which would have happened. Would you bet on it? 

[Yoshinator]

I honestly see Wilson and Luck as near equals. Wilson is more of a game manager and Luck is more of a franchise QB, but neither can carry a team by themselves. Wilson passes less, but he's more accurate, makes less mistakes, and scrambles better. Luck is a better pocket passer, but makes bad decisions and can't beat elite teams. Both of them need a team around them to win a SB. Wilson did, and Luck can't do it by himself. Luck and Wilson are equal IMO. Wilson was better value and has had more success up to this point.

[2006Coltsbestever]

6 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I honestly see Wilson and Luck as near equals. Wilson is more of a game manager and Luck is more of a franchise QB, but neither can carry a team by themselves. Wilson passes less, but he's more accurate, makes less mistakes, and scrambles better. Luck is a better pocket passer, but makes bad decisions and can't beat elite teams. Both of them need a team around them to win a SB. Wilson did, and Luck can't do it by himself. Luck and Wilson are equal IMO. Wilson was better value and has had more success up to this point.

I think it is close but to me if I had to choose between Luck and Wilson in a draft, I am taking Luck. It is hypothetical so I know this but imagine if Luck had played on the Seahawks from 2012-2014? IMO he has a SB win if not 2.

 

Until Luck wins a SB, he won't get the respect from some and some in the media that he should. Now Luck has Mahomes to deal with besides Brady so winning a SB will not be easy. Brees is still around too  

[Creekside]

12 minutes ago, NannyMcafee said:

Getting tired of the praise QBs get for SB wins or appearances. Completely disrespectful to the rest of the staff and players. A QB should be measured by what he does on and off the field. What do his stats look like? How is he pre-snap? What is his pocket awareness like? How accurate is he? How many turnovers does he have? Yards, and scores? 

 

Dont give me the whole "QBs get more blame and fame" statement. Wilson never gets blamed for throwing an INT to end the SB. That completely and utterly falls on the HC. 

 

This is why I wont say Brady is the GOAT. The only argument made is he has more rings. There arent a lot of stats to back up him being the greatest or anyone for that matter. Besides. You cant say someone is the greatest until the NFL ends its reign in sports. When there is no more NFL, or players to play it, then we can talk about the GOAT. Because it is a stat of all time, afterall. 

 

It takes a great QB, a great GM and  great HC, to pull off a dynasty. New England has done so. They are all great together. That doesn't mean Brady is the goat or Bill is the goat. Without each other, none of which would have happened. Would you bet on it? 

 

I'd bet a Baby Ruth candy bar.....or something that looks  like a Baby Ruth candy bar.

[Yoshinator]

12 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I think it is close but to me if I had to choose between Luck and Wilson in a draft, I am taking Luck. It is hypothetical so I know this but imagine if Luck had played on the Seahawks from 2012-2014? IMO he has a SB win if not 2.

 

Until Luck wins a SB, he won't get the respect from some and some in the media that he should. Now Luck has Mahomes to deal with besides Brady so winning a SB will not be easy. Brees is still around too  

Luck on the Seahawks in 2012-2014 would have won a SB. I agree. Wilson was in the better place and on the better team then. I just think Luck has shown he needs an elite team around him to win a SB. That's not my main problem though. My problem with Luck is he can't beat elite teams or QBs at all. If he falls behind against an elite QB, he makes mistakes and costs us the game. Wilson has been more clutch despite his limitations. We have to beat the top AFC teams to make a SB, and I don't know if Luck can do that yet.

[Superman]

6 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

How instrumental were the running game and D in Wilson's trips to the SB and in contrast, what kind of run game and D support did Luck receive in the same time frame? That is what makes it so hard to contrast. The availability part definitely is in RW's favor for sure.

 

Once he has had to carry the burden of winning more on his arm, RW's team success is not the same w.r.t the playoff wins and SB appearances.

 

I get that. Luck has definitely been asked to do more, but Wilson has had more success. I'm not arguing that Wilson's success makes him the better QB, but I don't think it can be argued that he's had more success.

 

I also think some understate just how awful Wilson's pass protection and offensive play calling has been most of his career. Almost as bad as Luck's, at times worse. But Wilson has different traits, and handles pressure differently than Luck, for better or worse. 

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

My problem with Luck is he can't beat elite teams or QBs at all.

 

Rodgers, Wilson, P. Manning... 

[Superman]

41 minutes ago, egg said:

 

I know......but how does "disparity in usage" effect performance? Luck is relied on more?

 

You brought up attempts... I'm not sure what your point was, but my point about attempts/game is that Luck and Wilson having roughly the same amount of total attempts doesn't really mean anything. 

[Lucky Colts Fan]

7 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

My problem with Luck is he can't beat elite teams or QBs at all. If he falls behind against an elite QB, he makes mistakes and costs us the game.

 

I present to you Exhibit A from his rookie year:

 

Packers-vs-Colts-highlights

 

It's the Reggie Wayne ChuckStrong game, where Andrew outduels Rodgers for the comeback win.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

Rodgers, Wilson, P. Manning... 

The 2012 game against Rodgers was rigged for us to win because of Pagano's cancer, won't convince me otherwise. Can't argue with the others, but it's a moot point as Wilson is in the NFC and Peyton is retired, so it has no bearing on who he has to beat to make a SB today. Beat the Pats, Steelers, or Chiefs with Mahomes and you'll have accomplished something.

[jameszeigler834]

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Wilson has never came close to passing for 40 TD's in a season. Luck has done it. When Wilson won the SB, Lynch and his defense carried him to that win. I am just speaking facts. Wilson is very good, maybe great but he isn't better than Luck. Luck has made the playoffs 4 times and he has played in a conference that has had Brady, Manning, and Big Ben to get through. Add Mahomes to that list too as of last year. The AFC has been a loaded conference for years. In Luck's rookie year he faced Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in the playoffs on the road  . Here is a question, did Wilson ever beat Tom Brady to win a SB? Answer is no. Luck has to go through that guy every year. 

Luck also has yet to beat that guy too Wilson did that his rookie year.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

I present to you Exhibit A from his rookie year:

 

Packers-vs-Colts-highlights

 

It's the Reggie Wayne ChuckStrong game, where Andrew outduels Rodgers for the comeback win.

You mean the rigged game where the NFL decided to put Pagano over? That's funny. The Packers are also an NFC team, which means even less. 

[Lucky Colts Fan]

2 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

The 2012 game against Rodgers was rigged for us to win because of Pagano's cancer, won't convince me otherwise.

 

Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

You mean the rigged game where the NFL decided to put Pagano over? That's funny.

 

Oh boy...  

 

Please don't derail this thread with that nonsense...  

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

You mean the rigged game where the NFL decided to put Pagano over? That's funny. The Packers are also an NFC team, which means even less. 

Luck also beat Wilson in 2013 (Seattle was stacked) and he beat Peyton in 2014 at Denver (divisional round). People can say Peyton wasn't 100% but early on he looked 100% when he led Denver to 7-0 lead. Nobody gave us a chance to win that game and had Denver penciled in to play the Pats for the title.

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

The 2012 game against Rodgers was rigged for us to win because of Pagano's cancer, won't convince me otherwise. Can't argue with the others, but it's a moot point as Wilson is in the NFC and Peyton is retired, so it has no bearing on who he has to beat to make a SB today. Beat the Pats, Steelers, or Chiefs with Mahomes and you'll have accomplished something.

 

I'm sure you can guess that I think your first line is nonsense. Even if I agreed -- and let's be clear, I disagree vehemently -- we beat the Packers again in 2016. No one had cancer for that one...

 

Really, my actual rebuttal is that beating an elite QB is a team accomplishment, it's not on one player. We haven't beat the Steelers because they sliced up our pass defense like a hot knife through butter; we haven't beat the Pats because they rammed the ball down the defense's throat. Not saying that Luck was great in any one of those games, but acting like those losses are because Luck is deficient is weak.

[Yoshinator]

Just now, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

 

Oh boy...  

 

Please don't derail this thread with that nonsense...  

Fine, I'll put it another way. Lets say Luck played really hard and won. Does it take something like what happened to Pagano for Luck to play well enough to beat another elite QB? That sounds like a lack of motivation, which isn't good either.

[Superman]

Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

Fine, I'll put it another way. Lets say Luck played really hard and won. Does it take something like what happened to Pagano for Luck to play well enough to beat another elite QB? That sounds like a lack of motivation, which isn't good either.

 

No.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/game?gameId=400874594

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

I'm sure you can guess that I think your first line is nonsense. Even if I agreed -- and let's be clear, I disagree vehemently -- we beat the Packers again in 2016. No one had cancer for that one...

 

Really, my actual rebuttal is that beating an elite QB is a team accomplishment, it's not on one player. We haven't beat the Steelers because they sliced up our pass defense like a hot knife through butter; we haven't beat the Pats because they rammed the ball down the defense's throat. Not saying that Luck was great in any one of those games, but acting like those losses are because Luck is deficient is weak.

Luck is the most important player on the team. Who else is to blame? We live and die by him. If you can give credit to a running game for beating us, then blame the QB for the losses. 

[Yoshinator]

7 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Luck also beat Wilson in 2013 (Seattle was stacked) and he beat Peyton in 2014 at Denver (divisional round). People can say Peyton wasn't 100% but early on he looked 100% when he led Denver to 7-0 lead. Nobody gave us a chance to win that game and had Denver penciled in to play the Pats for the title.

I'm to the point where beating weak playoff teams isn't enough anymore. Last year was fine given the circumstances, now it's time to make or win a SB.

[Superman]

4 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Luck is the most important player on the team. Who else is to blame? We live and die by him. If you can give credit to a running game for beating us, then blame the QB for the losses. 

 

Unlike you (and a lot of people, so not just putting this on you), I don't believe in the proverbial "QB Wins" stat. Football is the ultimate team game, they win and lose together. 

 

I think really good and great QBs can drag a team to victory, but I don't think losses should be laid solely at the feet of the QB without any further analysis. There are plenty of games where the QB plays well, and the team still loses. On the other hand, I think mediocre and bad QBs can hold a team back, but that doesn't mean every win is in spite of the QB (Blake Bortles was fantastic against the Pats last season). 

 

So, on it's face, I disagree with the statement that "Luck can't beat elite QBs." First, it's not true, and second, wins are accomplished by the team, not one player.

 

2 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I'm to the point where beating weak playoff teams isn't enough anymore. Last year was fine given the circumstances, now it's time to make or win a SB.

 

All these qualifiers...

 

You can rationalize anything if you just keep moving the goal posts.

[Yoshinator]

7 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

No.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/game?gameId=400874594

What's the point of the link? Luck played a poor game judging by the stats.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

2 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Fine, I'll put it another way. Lets say Luck played really hard and won. Does it take something like what happened to Pagano for Luck to play well enough to beat another elite QB? That sounds like a lack of motivation, which isn't good either.

 

I can keep going if you want.

 

Dak Prescott and Eli Manning in 2018.

 

Philip Rivers in 2016.

 

Matt Ryan in 2015.

 

Russell Wilson in 2013.

 

Matthew Stafford in 2012.

 

Just because Luck hasn't won against every single QB he's played against doesn't mean he "can't beat elite QBs"...  

 

I feel like you've been presented with enough evidence to show you that's not correct, but if you wanna keep running with your flawed narrative, go ahead...  

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

I can keep going if you want.

 

Dak Prescott and Eli Manning in 2018.

 

Philip Rivers in 2016.

 

Matt Ryan in 2015.

 

Russell Wilson in 2013.

 

Matthew Stafford in 2012.

 

Just because Luck hasn't won against every single QB he's played against doesn't mean he "can't beat elite QBs"...  

 

I feel like you've been presented with enough evidence to show you that's not correct, but if you wanna keep running with your flawed narrative, go ahead...  

Those aren't elite QB's (except for maybe Wilson in 2013). That list just proves my point.

[Creekside]

28 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

You brought up attempts... I'm not sure what your point was, but my point about attempts/game is that Luck and Wilson having roughly the same amount of total attempts doesn't really mean anything. 

 

It means they have had the same amount of "chances" with the football as passers. With both QB's making the same "amount" of passes, Wilson is significantly more efficient, in every category. 

 

Especially in TD to INT ratio: Wilson 3 TDs to 1 INT in 3,300 att

                                                      Luck    2 TDs to 1 INT in 3,300 att

 

 

[Superman]

6 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

What's the point of the link? Luck played a poor game judging by the stats.

 

LOL

 

So he can't beat elite QBs (except when he does), but when the Colts beat the Packers, it's either because the game was rigged or it's in spite of Luck... 

 

Again, weak rationalizations.

 

Also, I'm guessing you didn't watch the game, yet you've graded it on the basis of the box score?

 

One more thing, you said against good QBs, if Luck starts poorly, the game is over. In this game, Luck threw two picks in the first quarter, yet the Colts won. Another argument of yours is debunked. (And the Colts put the game away in the fourth quarter on Luck's arm. Anyone who watched the game knows that.)

[Lucky Colts Fan]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Those aren't elite QB's (except for maybe Wilson in 2013). That list just proves my point.

 

Half of those QBs have HOF credentials... I think your opinion is proving a point, just not the one you're trying to make...