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ColtJax

The idea that you sign a top QB no matter what is wrong!

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They were talking about the future signing of Pat Mahomes and said "it doesn't matter what he wants, if it's 40 million a year you do it". I disagree, and I know I might be in the minority to say it. But at what price are you paying for an 8-8 team at best? Don't you have to put pieces around the QB? What if he says "I want a ten year 400 million contract with 100 million up front and the rest guaranteed", would they do it? At one point it's going to be just a "NO" and the team will have to use the 5th year option (if available) and 2 year franchise tags then say goodbye. QB's are going to get top dollar, but at one point it's going to kill the team..

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Market value will still dictate things. If the next highest contract is $35 mil. a year with $110 mil. guaranteed (assuming how it will be when Mahomes' contract is spun), then a 5 year $200 mil. contract with $120 mil. guaranteed is not out of the question for Mahomes. It will still be kept reasonable with respect to market value. $107 mil. is the highest guaranteed money for a QB contract now, with RW and Wentz getting it, if I am not mistaken.

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If fans stopped paying ridiculous prices for NFL Access, seats and food, owners couldn't pay ridiculous prices for QB's. My point is folks are willing to pay for what they want, regardless of it's actual or perceived value. Pat M brings a lot of $$ to the Chiefs by his popularity, let alone his skills. 

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look at who wins super bowls, 95% of the time its a very good to great QB

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On 6/15/2019 at 8:48 AM, aaron11 said:

look at who wins super bowls, 95% of the time its a very good to great QB

 

I agree, but my point is that eventually (and it will be soon) a very good QB (or his agent) is going to ask for so much that the team will have to decide if a great QB without money for quality pieces is worth it..

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1 hour ago, ColtJax said:

 

I agree, but my point is that eventually (and it will be soon) a very good QB (or his agent) is going to ask for so much that the team will have to decide if a great QB without money for quality pieces is worth it..

Even if that happens, there are 31 other teams in the NFL and someone will pay big money.  If Mahomes wants $40 mil a year and the Chiefs refuse to give it to him, there's no chance he goes unsigned by all other teams.  Some team will find a way to pay him the money.

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On 6/16/2019 at 11:17 AM, ColtJax said:

 

I agree, but my point is that eventually (and it will be soon) a very good QB (or his agent) is going to ask for so much that the team will have to decide if a great QB without money for quality pieces is worth it..

 

First, this is the topic in the Dak thread...

 

Second, teams have been making this cost/benefit analysis for a long time now, probably since the cap was instituted. The cap has gone up dramatically, and so have QB salaries, but the percentage of the cap for QB salaries is still pretty much the same, give or take a few percentage points, and that extra money is probably coming from the money saved on rookie contracts. Teams still pay QBs -- even slightly above average QBs -- because it's more cost effective to overpay a QB who is "good enough" than it is to try to replace him with a QB of unknown quality. That's probably not going to change.

 

(Russell Wilson's average on his new deal is $35m/year, which is about 17% of the total projected salary cap over the life of the contract, based on a conservative cap estimation. Peyton Manning's Denver contract accounted for approximately 14% of the total cap for his four years with the Broncos.)

 

The next real test case for this will be Jared Goff. He looked like a bum before McVay got there; some have argued that he's slightly above average, but looks a lot better because of McVay. He was a legitimate MVP candidate halfway through last season, then had one of the worst SB performances in recent history. If any team is in a position to say 'we have the staff to make our average QB expendable,' it's the Rams. And yet, McVay has said there's 'zero chance' they don't extend Goff. When we see what that extension looks like, we'll either have further evidence that teams don't want to replace slightly above average QBs, or we'll see a team use some leverage to get their QB on a team friendly contract.

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