Parris Campbell Predictions

[TheMose]

ESPN did an article on "Fantasy Predictions for the top offseason addition for all 32 NFL teams." Parris Campbell was the player highlighted for the Colts and they predicted him for:

 

53 Receptions

572 Yards

4 TDs

 

What are your predictions and how far off do you have ESPN? Personally I think they are on the low side and have him at:

 

64 Receptions

832 Yards

4 TDs

 

Go Colts!

[pgt_rob]

Who knows. They're probably relatively close unless something happens to TY Hilton.

[TheMose]

10 minutes ago, pgt_rob said:

Who knows. They're probably relatively close unless something happens to TY Hilton.

I think they played it very safe and is definitely more realistic than my prediction. But with how the FO talks about Parris, I think he is going to play a major role. I believe he will be our #2 while Funchess racks up double his TDs as mainly a Redzone threat. I see Parris putting up Calvin Ridley numbers without the TDs. 

[Yoshinator]

70 receptions

800 yds

4-6 tds

 

I think this is the ballpark for him. He'll be a PPR machine even in his first year with solid YPC. The tds will be on the light side because of Funchess and Ebron though.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

70 receptions

800 yds

4-6 tds

 

I think this is the ballpark for him. He'll be a PPR machine even in his first year with solid YPC. The tds will be on the light side because of Funchess and Ebron though.

Giving Luck this kind of weapon gives us a chance to beat the Pats or Chiefs. He could very well be similar to what Hill gives KC. Luck needed this type of playmaker. 

[Barry Sears]

50 receptions

850 yards

8 TDs

 

Thinking big!  I see 2-3 TDs by way of end around type plays where TY and Funchess go deep and it opens up the fields for Campbell to do his thing.

[Valpo2004]

Meh I think the ESPN projection for him is more realistic.  

 

There are a lot of good targets on this team.  Hilton, Funchess, Ebron, Doyle at least initially are all going to take precedence over Campbell.  At the beginning of the season he isn't going to see the field but a handful of plays.  On top of that considering his speed many of the plays he is in for might be designed end arounds for him (which would be considered rushing yards) or plays where he would act as a decoy.  

 

At best he starts the season as a WR#3 on a team that likes to use 2 TE sets.  (Because Reich will likely want to try and get both Ebron and Doyle on the field.)

 

He's going to have to wait for someone to be injured or beat someone out during the season if he wants to be in for more than 25% of offensive snaps his rookie year.  I can't see him getting 800 receiving yards like that.  

 

Now I can see him getting a couple hundred rushing yards.

 

Now with Funchess, Ebron, and Doyle all hitting FA after this year and I doubt that Ballard will bring back all 3 of them, Campbell will move up in precedence his 2nd year and become a more regular contributor.  

[Yoshinator]

6 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

Meh I think the ESPN projection for him is more realistic.  

 

There are a lot of good targets on this team.  Hilton, Funchess, Ebron, Doyle at least initially are all going to take precedence over Campbell.  At the beginning of the season he isn't going to see the field but a handful of plays.  On top of that considering his speed many of the plays he is in for might be designed end arounds for him (which would be considered rushing yards) or plays where he would act as a decoy.  

 

He's going to have to wait for someone to be injured or beat someone out during the season if he wants to be in for more than 25% of offensive snaps his rookie year.  

I'll take my prediction over ESPN's 7 days a week and twice on Sunday. Lets do an avatar bet on who's closer. Reich loves Parris and will use him early and often. You'll get destroyed.

[2006Coltsbestever]

7 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I'll take my prediction over ESPN's 7 days a week and twice on Sunday. Lets do an avatar bet on who's closer. Reich loves Parris and will use him early and often. You'll get destroyed.

It is really hard to gauge what kind of numbers he will have because we have TY, Funchess, and Ebron who will be used a lot. Having said that, Campbell will be used quite often IMO and is a dangerous weapon to have. 

[Valpo2004]

5 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I'll take my prediction over ESPN's 7 days a week and twice on Sunday. Lets do an avatar bet on who's closer. Reich loves Parris and will use him early and often. You'll get destroyed.

 

I have no idea what an avatar bet is.  But will try to remember to admit to being wrong if Campbell gets more than 686 **RECEIVING** yards.  Barring one of those guys I mentioned being injured for more than 3 weeks.  Remind me if I forget.  

 

Now if we are talking about *total* yards I would agree with you more.  But I think his receiving numbers are going to be lower.  

 

I would also remind you that Reich likes Hilton, Funchess, and Ebron and I suspect he likes Doyle.  

[throwing BBZ]

He will be best used as a relief valve for most of the season.
40 catches for 450 yds  5 tds

[TheMose]

My biggest issue with the ESPN prediction is the lack of efficiency. They have him at around 10.8 per catch. I think he will be a Santana Moss type of player, who averaged 14.0 through his career.

[Dark Superman]

65 catches.

800 yards.

6 TD's

[IndyD4U]

I'd be happy with ESPN's projections in his rookie year

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

I don't see any way he ends up with more than 4 TDs, I mean TY only averages a few more than that on 100+ targets. Plus, Funchess is huge and obviously Ebron will be targeted in the endzone. I think the plays he scores on are 15-20+ yards out. 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

And I drafted him in a dynasty start up, so I hope he breaks records ppl, just don't see the TDs. I could see him having 60-70 catches, 5-600 receiving yards, and 150-200 on the ground, which is great for a rookie. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Realistically 400 yards and two to three touchdowns. He could surprise and get more time but I think he will be used sparingly unless he just shows something incredible.

[John Hammonds]

2 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

Meh I think the ESPN projection for him is more realistic.  

 

There are a lot of good targets on this team.  Hilton, Funchess, Ebron, Doyle at least initially are all going to take precedence over Campbell.  At the beginning of the season he isn't going to see the field but a handful of plays.  On top of that considering his speed many of the plays he is in for might be designed end arounds for him (which would be considered rushing yards) or plays where he would act as a decoy.  

 

At best he starts the season as a WR#3 on a team that likes to use 2 TE sets.  (Because Reich will likely want to try and get both Ebron and Doyle on the field.)

 

He's going to have to wait for someone to be injured or beat someone out during the season if he wants to be in for more than 25% of offensive snaps his rookie year.  I can't see him getting 800 receiving yards like that.  

 

Now I can see him getting a couple hundred rushing yards.

 

Now with Funchess, Ebron, and Doyle all hitting FA after this year and I doubt that Ballard will bring back all 3 of them, Campbell will move up in precedence his 2nd year and become a more regular contributor.  

I agree.  Campbell is a rookie, with max potential, but having limited experience running a full pro route tree, lining up as a slot receiver, on a team that likes to run two tight ends.  I'll go even lower.  I expect 35-45 catches for about 400 yards and 3 to 4 TD's.

Now, here's a better question to put out there:
In which way will Campbell get the most yards - receiving yards, return yards, or rushing yards?

[horseshoecrabs]

In college, he seemed to get good yardage after the catch, But in the NFL, I just hope he remembers to catch the ball first before he thinks about yardage after the catch, lol. I think that receiving yards will be the most yardage.  

[EastStreet]

Several reports have said he's picking up the route tree very well. If that's accurate, he should do very well as a rookie. 

 

Honestly I think his production will be tied somewhat to Cain's recovery. If Cain is slow to come back (or X is limited in general), I think Campbell hits 750+. If Cain comes back strong, I think Paris will be in the 500-600 range. 

 

Regardless, anything over 500 in a rookie year is good.

 

The biggest benefit Paris and/or a healthy Cain provides, is a deterrent from doubling TY. I'm very excited to see what Campbell can do in the PR too.

[Trace Pyott]

I got a question for those who are a bit more knowledgeable than me. I’m reading all these predictions but wondering how they stack up to avg rookie wr stats. How many td, yards, etc are considered elite for a rookie?  Also do you guys predict he will have a rookie year as good or Better than what TY had?????  Thanks. 

[gacoop1]

66 Rec

934 Yds

11 TDs

[stitches]

55 rec

655 rec

5 TDs

[aaron11]

450 yards, 4 TDs

 

they paid funchess 10 million dollars, he will probably get more chances while they bring the rookie along as a role player 

[aaron11]

6 hours ago, Trace Pyott said:

I got a question for those who are a bit more knowledgeable than me. I’m reading all these predictions but wondering how they stack up to avg rookie wr stats. How many td, yards, etc are considered elite for a rookie?  Also do you guys predict he will have a rookie year as good or Better than what TY had?????  Thanks. 

this shows what last years class did https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/rookie-review-how-the-wide-receiver-class-fared-in-year-1

 

only calvin ridley went over 800 yards, there were a few in the 700 range and several in the 400-500s

 

 

[dodsworth]

56 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

450 yards, 4 TDs

 

they paid funchess 10 million dollars, he will probably get more chances while they bring the rookie along as a role player 

Not if Funch has the results of a Ryan Grant. Early on yes but not if he isn't producing.

[Trace Pyott]

1 hour ago, aaron11 said:

this shows what last years class did https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/rookie-review-how-the-wide-receiver-class-fared-in-year-1

 

only calvin ridley went over 800 yards, there were a few in the 700 range and several in the 400-500s

 

Thanks Aaron for clarifying that for me. I hope he gets at least 700 yArds, and 4 or 5 td. The main thing I want to see is improvement month to month. 

 

[Jdubu]

19 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

He will be best used as a relief valve for most of the season.
40 catches for 450 yds  5 tds

Well Hines was a relief valve last year and look what he caught. I don’t see us overloaded on any one guy this season. I’d bet everyone across the board is down because everyone is gonna be a target and nobody is going to be the outlet valance this season imho. Of course all this is on paper as we haven’t seen our guys catch a ball in pads from Luck yet so while I’m super excited about each new possibility this season, I’m staying tempered to expectations. 13-3  

[Myles]

23 hours ago, TheMose said:

ESPN did an article on "Fantasy Predictions for the top offseason addition for all 32 NFL teams." Parris Campbell was the player highlighted for the Colts and they predicted him for:

 

53 Receptions

572 Yards

4 TDs

 

What are your predictions and how far off do you have ESPN? Personally I think they are on the low side and have him at:

 

64 Receptions

832 Yards

4 TDs

 

Go Colts!

I think ESPN's prediction is pretty accurate.   

I'll go with 48 receptions, 511 yards and 4TD's

[HarryTheCat]

You don't have to look too far back into history to see how tough it is for a rookie WR to adapt to the NFL. Reggie Wayne's first season didn't look very promising -- 13 games/9 starts, 27 receptions, 345 yds., no TDs. He missed a few games with an ankle which didn't help him. He really started putting it together in his third year, and it wasn't until his fourth year that he turned into the Reggie we all remember. 

 

If Parris has a first year like Reggie's second year (16 games/7 starts, 49 rec, 716 yds., 4 TD) I think everyone should be pretty happy with that.  If he falls a bit short of that, have patience. Neither Rome nor Reggie was built in a day...or one season. 

[Architects08]

54 rec 

675 yards

4 TDs

[dodsworth]

5 hours ago, HarryTheCat said:

You don't have to look too far back into history to see how tough it is for a rookie WR to adapt to the NFL. Reggie Wayne's first season didn't look very promising -- 13 games/9 starts, 27 receptions, 345 yds., no TDs. He missed a few games with an ankle which didn't help him. He really started putting it together in his third year, and it wasn't until his fourth year that he turned into the Reggie we all remember. 

 

If Parris has a first year like Reggie's second year (16 games/7 starts, 49 rec, 716 yds., 4 TD) I think everyone should be pretty happy with that.  If he falls a bit short of that, have patience. Neither Rome nor Reggie was built in a day...or one season. 

Reggie ran a 4.45 while Parris ran a 4.31. Reich will find ways to get the ball

in his hands this season.

[Four2itus]

So....the #10 Rookie WR all time NFL history is Percy Harvin.... had these numbers:

 

60 catches 790 yards 6 td's  (drafted #22 overall)

 

and I see predictions of..........

 

70 / 800 / 4-6 

50 / 850 / 8 

65 / 800 / 6

66 / 934 / 11

 

I hope to hell ya'll right, but........

 

 

[DerekDiggler]

On 5/31/2019 at 1:04 PM, TheMose said:

ESPN did an article on "Fantasy Predictions for the top offseason addition for all 32 NFL teams." Parris Campbell was the player highlighted for the Colts and they predicted him for:

 

53 Receptions

572 Yards

4 TDs

 

What are your predictions and how far off do you have ESPN? Personally I think they are on the low side and have him at:

 

64 Receptions

832 Yards

4 TDs

 

Go Colts!

I predict he makes the team.   That’s all 

[AwesomeAustin]

On 5/31/2019 at 4:20 PM, Chloe6124 said:

Realistically 400 yards and two to three touchdowns. He could surprise and get more time but I think he will be used sparingly unless he just shows something incredible.

This x10!    He is a rookie and there are a lot of weapons on the team plus we will run the ball more. 

[colts8718]

85for1300

[JPFolks]

You know it's interesting how optimistic everyone is about him.  I am as well, he was my favorite WR in the draft, and I could not believe he was still available when we took him.  But I am not sure how he could have huge numbers unless Funchess gets very little play, or more surprisingly, Hilton doesn't do as much as he usually does, even with less attention on him.  

 

I'm not going to guess a number, as it is just too random of a guess to mean anything.  Anyone getting close would, in my view, just be lucky.  But what I find interesting about this post and the responses is that I don't know how he gets big numbers that some predict unless other Colts players under perform.   Ebron, Doyle, Hilton, Funchess, Mack, Ware & Hines, at the minimum, stand between Campbell and his stat production.  That is 7 guys (plus the other Wideouts) dividing up let's optimistically say, 5000 yards passing by Luck.   

 

Using that number, (this isn't a prediction, just curious how to make the numbers work)

 

Hilton                            1300

Ebron                              700

Funchess                        700

Doyle                               500

Campbell                         450

Rogers                              400

Hines                               400

Receiver #5*                   350

Mack                                150

Ware                                150

Receiver #6*                   100

---------------------------------------------

                                         5000

 

*(Pascal, Cain, Johnson, Fountain et. al)

 

Now maybe Andrew sets the NFL record for yardage which is Manning @ 5477.  That still doesn't leave a lot of yards to go around.  Hilton has a career average of roughly 1,150 yards but that includes his rookie year, so he'll likely do MORE than 1200.  Ebron had 750 last season, Doyle averages app. 600 as a starter. 

 

So when you really look at the numbers, there aren't a lot of yards to go around.  If Cain steps up like people hope, those yards have to be taken away from someone else. 

 

I think for people to really crush it above the numbers up there, Luck may have to approach the NFL passing record.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

What we do know  they were designing plays just for him  in OTA’s.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

We also know that Chester Rogers is still the third WR. Someone will have to beat him out in camp.

[Luck 4 president]

45 catches

300 yards

2 TDs