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Kurt Warner doesn't think Luck is a top-5 QB

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A lot of people here don't like PFF, but the last 2 seasons he's played Luck has been ranked no. 2(2016 only behind Brady) and no.3 QB(2018 only behind Mahomes and Brees) in the league. This is by people that actually watch and evaluate ALL snaps of ALL QBs in the league... not by some random pundits that watch two or three games a season of Luck and have no system behind their evaluations.  

 

And this is with Luck throwing with screwed up shoulder in 2016 and coming back from 500+ days without throwing a football in 2018. To me it's kind of shocking how many even Colts fans underestimate just how good Luck is. Luck is a generational talent who was sabotaged and almost killed by mismanagement by Grigson and Pagano for the first 5 years of his career. Imagine if he had an offensive minded coach who knew what the hell he was doing from the very start instead of Pagano's Air Coryell disciples making him run for his life for 5 years. 

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6 hours ago, King Colt said:

Last season is not a career and no matter what stats are posted no one would put Luck in the top five-no one.

your right last season is not a career but from 2012 to 2019 it's part of Luck's career and he has been great every year hes healthy even his rookie year with a trash team. Mahomes one season is definitely not a career so your point is dumb.

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2 hours ago, stitches said:

A lot of people here don't like PFF, but the last 2 seasons he's played Luck has been ranked no. 2(2016 only behind Brady) and no.3 QB(2018 only behind Mahomes and Brees) in the league. This is by people that actually watch and evaluate ALL snaps of ALL QBs in the league... not by some random pundits that watch two or three games a season of Luck and have no system behind their evaluations.  

 

And this is with Luck throwing with screwed up shoulder in 2016 and coming back from 500+ days without throwing a football in 2018. To me it's kind of shocking how many even Colts fans underestimate just how good Luck is. Luck is a generational talent who was sabotaged and almost killed by mismanagement by Grigson and Pagano for the first 5 years of his career. Imagine if he had an offensive minded coach who knew what the hell he was doing from the very start instead of Pagano's Air Coryell disciples making him run for his life for 5 years. 

I totally agree with you I'm also shocked by how many are against luck as a top 5 QB

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26 minutes ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

I totally agree with you I'm also shocked by how many are against luck as a top 5 QB

Yep... I think right now we as a fanbase are underrating Luck and massively overrating our OLine and defense. 

 

I just listened to two Colts podcasts that decided to do over/unders for variety of things about the Colts 2019 season - like sacks allowed by the OLine, Luck TDs, TY yards, etc... 

 

BOTH of them set the over/under of how many sacks we will allow as a team to 15.5... FIFTEEN POINT FIVE!!!! And the hosts of those podcasts were picking the UNDER on both of them. First, people don't understand that sacks are noisy and not stable stat and what is a much better mark for the pass-protection is pressures allowed, where we ranked about middle of the pack in the league. You can have similar year pass-protection-wise next season and allow 30-35 sacks(which is still top 10 in the league). I also went back in the previous decade and there is no team that has went under 15.5 sacks allowed for the last 9 years. The last teams to do it were the 2009 Colts and Titans.  

 

About the defense - our defense was helped by a weird selection of opposing QBs we faced. Out of the 16 games we played in the regular season, we played only 1 against a top 15 offense in the league and 1 in the playoffs and the two that we met(NE and KC) demolished our defense seamlessly. We probably improved this off-season but this defense still has a lot to prove. 

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If 2012-2014 did not prove Luck could carry teams with at best average rosters nothing well. We went 11-5 3 years in a row and even made an AFC Title Game with Chuck Pagano coaching as well. I am glad Luck finally has help, he deserves it. Tom Brady has had major help his whole career.

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3 hours ago, stitches said:

A lot of people here don't like PFF, but the last 2 seasons he's played Luck has been ranked no. 2(2016 only behind Brady) and no.3 QB(2018 only behind Mahomes and Brees) in the league. This is by people that actually watch and evaluate ALL snaps of ALL QBs in the league... not by some random pundits that watch two or three games a season of Luck and have no system behind their evaluations.  

 

And this is with Luck throwing with screwed up shoulder in 2016 and coming back from 500+ days without throwing a football in 2018. To me it's kind of shocking how many even Colts fans underestimate just how good Luck is. Luck is a generational talent who was sabotaged and almost killed by mismanagement by Grigson and Pagano for the first 5 years of his career. Imagine if he had an offensive minded coach who knew what the hell he was doing from the very start instead of Pagano's Air Coryell disciples making him run for his life for 5 years. 

 

 I am a believer in PFF as a solid point of reference.
  For YEARS i watched Andrew pass up throwing to guys running wide open right in front of him from 5-12 yds away and Choose to hold on to the ball for chances to throw the damn ball further downfield. He often had to run because of this, and also just got blown up, all the while congratulating his opponents for a nice hit.
 Yes his lines were not good, all the more reason to play smart and CHOOSE to take more quick throwing Opps. Not forgetting that he sucked with accuracy and touch in the short game.
 Andrew FINALLY showed some improvement last season in the short game.
 And i would take all the guys on Warner's list and R Wilson over Andrew for being able to make all the throws WHEN they need to be made.
 That said, i would agree he is very close as an overall QB, right there in the group as the best of the best.

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It all boils down too whether or not a QB wins SB's in most people's eyes. Not to all people but most. Until Luck wins a SB he will never get the respect he deserves from most people. Russell Wilson could retire tomorrow and almost everyone thinks he is a god because he won a SB which is funny. Wilson not only had one of the best defenses of all-time but his RB (Lynch) was the best offensive player on that team. Wilson is a very good QB but Luck is better, IMO anyway. Imagine if Luck would've been a Seahawk in 2012-2015? That team would've been unbeatable. 

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On 5/25/2019 at 9:00 AM, Colts_Fan12 said:

your right last season is not a career but from 2012 to 2019 it's part of Luck's career and he has been great every year hes healthy even his rookie year with a trash team. Mahomes one season is definitely not a career so your point is dumb.

I think you are blinded by being a fan versus being a realist. If my point is "dumb" as you wrote then the huge majority if not all of the sports writers in America are wrong in their assessments.

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17 minutes ago, King Colt said:

I think you are blinded by being a fan versus being a realist. If my point is "dumb" as you wrote then the huge majority if not all of the sports writers in America are wrong in their assessments.

no you are just being a troll as usual 

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My problem with Luck in particular is that he chokes against good teams (and more importantly good QB's). Luck is like the kid who plays pokemon who dominates worse players than him (or in this case worse teams), and loses to anyone on his skill level. He has yet to beat the Pats, the Steelers, and he looked awful against a Mahomes-led Chiefs team in their first-ever meeting. The Browns will also be a threat for the forseeable future as they have Mayfield and lots of talent around him. Besides the team around him and his stats, nothing shows me Luck has improved enough to be an elite or generational QB yet. He has to beat the best teams and QB's and win a SB for us. He's basically 30, half his career is over. The free ride is over and Ballard has built a SB-Winning team around Luck. No more excuses.

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On 5/22/2019 at 1:33 PM, KB said:

I cant see Pat in front of Aaron just yet. One great season dosnt supersede multiple great years. And is big Ben really much better than Luck or Russell Wilson (I honestly think those two are at the same level)?

The list was intended as the top-5 ENTERING the 2019 season. So multiple great years doesn't apply so much. 

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1 hour ago, masterlock said:

The list was intended as the top-5 ENTERING the 2019 season. So multiple great years doesn't apply so much. 

still not sure how Luck wouldnt make that either. the dude was the 3rd best QB last year behind only Mahomes and Brees

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Luck has shown flashes since he became a Colt he could be a great field general, like Unitas did, Peyton, Bert Jones, Jim Harbaugh …. Injuries play a big facture so does  a good offensive line is key. You can be a good field general on offense but, It is a team sport and an overall good team on offense and defense still win championships. Peyton had better teams on both side of the ball but he did not get over the hump until he learned to manage the offense, with the running game with Addai and Roads. We had better running games with James but to score quickly put more pressure on our defense.  Balance should be the key for us. It has been for the Patriots. We will never have the perfect offense & defense together so it's all about balance. If our offense exceeds our defense then run with that to keeps us competitive,  If our defense creates our offense then run with that.  Balance is the key!

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I don't have a problem with these lists.  They're all subjective anyway.  As long as it is a good, solid argument.  Now if he had say Ryan Tannehill or Josh Allen in there then I would retort.  But his list is quite valid, and I don't think he was trying to slam anybody, Luck included.  This is just his honest assessment of where things stand heading into 2019 and I can't refute it.  

 

It's up to Luck to play his way into his top 5.  I personally think he is capable.

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9 hours ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

no you are just being a troll as usual 

Yeah, me and Kurt Warner!

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8 hours ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

still not sure how Luck wouldnt make that either. the dude was the 3rd best QB last year behind only Mahomes and Brees

I agree. If it is a list of career achievements than Luck should be on it and Mahomes shouldn't if Warner went that route. Luck has had a better career. If Warner went the route of who was the best QB's last season going into this season than Luck should be on it as well. He was 2nd in TD passes and 5th in passing Yards. Rodgers wasn't in the top 5 in either. Rodgers nor Ben even made the playoffs. I am not upset about this list but IMO as I just explained it makes no sense that Luck shouldn't be on it no matter how Warner does his list.

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14 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I agree. If it is a list of career achievements than Luck should be on it and Mahomes shouldn't if Warner went that route. Luck has had a better career. If Warner went the route of who was the best QB's last season going into this season than Luck should be on it as well. He was 2nd in TD passes and 5th in passing Yards. Rodgers wasn't in the top 5 in either. Rodgers nor Ben even made the playoffs. I am not upset about this list but IMO as I just explained it makes no sense that Luck shouldn't be on it no matter how Warner does his list.

yeah it dosen't bother me either just doesn't really make much sense when you look at everything 

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On 5/25/2019 at 7:24 AM, stitches said:

Yep... I think right now we as a fanbase are underrating Luck and massively overrating our OLine and defense. 

 

Agreed with the bolded.

 

The OL is drastically better, but was also assisted by better play calling in 2018. But as improved as the line is, people still tend to think it's necessarily the best OL in the league, mostly by virtue of the fact that they didn't give up a lot of sacks last season.

 

This ignores a lot of context, like you said. Again, across the board, the line played better last year -- time to throw, pressures allowed, run blocking efficiency, etc. -- but there's still work to be done on the OL. And we didn't add any personnel, so we're relying on Kelly to stay healthy, AC to stay healthy and start the season strong for a change, and for Glowinski and Smith to tighten things up on the right side. There are a lot of IFs on the OL. I'm optimistic, but none of these are a given.

 

And I've spent plenty of words on the defense. It was massively overrated last season, we still don't have a consistent pass rusher (Houston wasn't consistent for KC last year, so assuming he'll be a consistent rusher for us this year is myopic, at best), and the real soft spot in the defense is the short middle of the field, where offenses were most productive against us. And not just offenses with MVP-caliber QB -- the Dolphins and Giants gave us problems, and both of those games were in Indy. The only proven player we've added on defense is Houston; otherwise, we're hoping young players get better, and we're hoping rookies make a difference in Year 1, which probability suggests they will not.

 

As for underrating Luck, I think it depends on the ranking criteria. But whether we're ranking QBs over their careers, or just on 2018, I think Luck is rightly in that 5-8 range. If we're acting like Luck didn't mostly carry the Colts in 2018, or like he hasn't carried them since 2012, then yeah, we're underrating him. Anyone saying Luck needs to step up is way off base, and anyone acting like the rest of the roster has proven anything is missing the point.

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Agreed with the bolded.

 

The OL is drastically better, but was also assisted by better play calling in 2018. But as improved as the line is, people still tend to think it's necessarily the best OL in the league, mostly by virtue of the fact that they didn't give up a lot of sacks last season.

 

This ignores a lot of context, like you said. Again, across the board, the line played better last year -- time to throw, pressures allowed, run blocking efficiency, etc. -- but there's still work to be done on the OL. And we didn't add any personnel, so we're relying on Kelly to stay healthy, AC to stay healthy and start the season strong for a change, and for Glowinski and Smith to tighten things up on the right side. There are a lot of IFs on the OL. I'm optimistic, but none of these are a given.

 

And I've spent plenty of words on the defense. It was massively overrated last season, we still don't have a consistent pass rusher (Houston wasn't consistent for KC last year, so assuming he'll be a consistent rusher for us this year is myopic, at best), and the real soft spot in the defense is the short middle of the field, where offenses were most productive against us. And not just offenses with MVP-caliber QB -- the Dolphins and Giants gave us problems, and both of those games were in Indy. The only proven player we've added on defense is Houston; otherwise, we're hoping young players get better, and we're hoping rookies make a difference in Year 1, which probability suggests they will not.

 

As for underrating Luck, I think it depends on the ranking criteria. But whether we're ranking QBs over their careers, or just on 2018, I think Luck is rightly in that 5-8 range. If we're acting like Luck didn't mostly carry the Colts in 2018, or like he hasn't carried them since 2012, then yeah, we're underrating him. Anyone saying Luck needs to step up is way off base, and anyone acting like the rest of the roster has proven anything is missing the point.

 

I don't think Luck is underrated. I actually think there is a level that Luck hasn't reached yet. We have seen flashes of it...just not a huge sample size. That's not to say he needs to step up...just that he hasn't maxed out yet. And when he gets to that next tier...then he will be a bonafide top 5 QB.

 

Look at some of the other top QBs in the NFL (Brady, Big Ben, Brees, Ryan)...they all took their game to another level around at or just past the age of 30. Luck is heading into that age 30 season. He has the OL...he has weapons...he has the coaching...so I think he can get there...but we will see.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

I don't think Luck is underrated. I actually think there is a level that Luck hasn't reached yet. We have seen flashes of it...just not a huge sample size. That's not to say he needs to step up...just that he hasn't maxed out yet. And when he gets to that next tier...then he will be a bonafide top 5 QB.

 

Look at some of the other top QBs in the NFL (Brady, Big Ben, Brees, Ryan)...they all took their game to another level around at or just past the age of 30. Luck is heading into that age 30 season. He has the OL...he has weapons...he has the coaching...so I think he can get there...but we will see.

 

There are some posts in this thread that are selling Luck short. In general, having him in the 5-8 range isn't a problem, but comments like 'he needs to step up' or 'he can't beat good QBs' display a lack of perspective and understanding. JMO.

 

As for him taking another step to that elite tier, I agree. I only have three QBs on that tier right now. He might not get there; I think he has what it takes physically and mentally, so I expect that he will, but that's rarefied air, so it's not a given. (And with a recency bias, it's not hard to see why Mahomes would be ahead of Luck, even though he has a shorter resume.)

 

And yes, this is the age range where a lot of QBs take that next step toward or into elite status. And to me, you only get to that status after establishing a track record of proven performance at that excelling level of play, not just one year (Matt Ryan, Pat Mahomes), and not with a lot of personal ups and downs. Luck was probably on his way to this group after 2014, but he started getting hurt. I also felt his offensive coaches weren't ideal to maximize his efficiency, which is something I think is really valuable in modern day QBing. The playmaking was already there, as early as 2012, to be honest; just look at the comebacks.

 

Of those elite guys, Rodgers is the one that broke the door down early. He was in his age 28 season, the year after the SB win, when he started combining insane efficiency with outstanding production; and he rode the bench for three seasons, so he was arguably behind schedule. Luck could have done it at 26, but that's when things started falling apart (bad OCs, worse OL, injuries). Assume that Luck picks up where he left off last season, and isn't limited by the shoulder, and the coaching continues to excel -- Reich was in a zone as a playcaller for a long stretch last year -- and we could see Luck with a 2016 Matt Ryan type of season.

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3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

There are some posts in this thread that are selling Luck short. In general, having him in the 5-8 range isn't a problem, but comments like 'he needs to step up' or 'he can't beat good QBs' display a lack of perspective and understanding. JMO.

 

As for him taking another step to that elite tier, I agree. I only have three QBs on that tier right now. He might not get there; I think he has what it takes physically and mentally, so I expect that he will, but that's rarefied air, so it's not a given. (And with a recency bias, it's not hard to see why Mahomes would be ahead of Luck, even though he has a shorter resume.)

 

And yes, this is the age range where a lot of QBs take that next step toward or into elite status. And to me, you only get to that status after establishing a track record of proven performance at that excelling level of play, not just one year (Matt Ryan, Pat Mahomes), and not with a lot of personal ups and downs. Luck was probably on his way to this group after 2014, but he started getting hurt. I also felt his offensive coaches weren't ideal to maximize his efficiency, which is something I think is really valuable in modern day QBing. The playmaking was already there, as early as 2012, to be honest; just look at the comebacks.

 

Of those elite guys, Rodgers is the one that broke the door down early. He was in his age 28 season, the year after the SB win, when he started combining insane efficiency with outstanding production; and he rode the bench for three seasons, so he was arguably behind schedule. Luck could have done it at 26, but that's when things started falling apart (bad OCs, worse OL, injuries). Assume that Luck picks up where he left off last season, and isn't limited by the shoulder, and the coaching continues to excel -- Reich was in a zone as a playcaller for a long stretch last year -- and we could see Luck with a 2016 Matt Ryan type of season.

Overall when factoring everything in, I think 5-8 is reasonable. There is still Brady who just won the SB, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes = the newcomer/MVP, Big Ben, Wilson, and of course Luck. You can't go wrong with any of them. Matt Ryan even has his moments and has won an MVP. Rivers is very good too. 

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5 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Overall when factoring everything in, I think 5-8 is reasonable. There is still Brady who just won the SB, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes = the newcomer/MVP, Big Ben, Wilson, and of course Luck. You can't go wrong with any of them. Matt Ryan even has his moments and has won an MVP. Rivers is very good too. 

 

Wilson is the one that gets sold short by fans around the league. He's incredible, and gets very little help up front, and his coaching staff is questionable. But he's super efficient, produces TDs, takes care of the ball, for some reason got fewer pass attempts than anyone else, gets sacked a ton, has only one receiving threat... He's doing a lot with a little. 

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6 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Wilson is the one that gets sold short by fans around the league. He's incredible, and gets very little help up front, and his coaching staff is questionable. But he's super efficient, produces TDs, takes care of the ball, for some reason got fewer pass attempts than anyone else, gets sacked a ton, has only one receiving threat... He's doing a lot with a little. 

Yeah he is underrated. I underrate him myself at times because when he won the SB I felt like Lynch and the Defense had more to do with it. Having said that, I think he is at worse very good on a scale of good/very good/great and I would put him in my top 8.

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2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Wilson is the one that gets sold short by fans around the league. He's incredible, and gets very little help up front, and his coaching staff is questionable. But he's super efficient, produces TDs, takes care of the ball, for some reason got fewer pass attempts than anyone else, gets sacked a ton, has only one receiving threat... He's doing a lot with a little. 

This has been for all of his career. He is extremely good at what he does, but I'm not sure he can do much more(i.e. have more pass attempts while keeping the efficiency). The reason is... He's not a pocket passer.  He leaves throws on the field and he leaves pockets when he doesn't need to leave them. Part of it is because of his size he doesn't see some throws, and because of his athleticism he can always try to escape the pocket and make an out of structure play(be it throw on the run or run the ball), where he is exceptional. His coaches are telling you what they think of him by the way they construct their offenses. This is not a new development. His offense has been structured around the running game pretty much since the start of his career with Lynch and they are trying to recreate it now too(drafting RB in the 1st). He could never do what Luck has been asked to do. (just like Luck probably cannot do what they ask of Wilson too).  

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On 5/22/2019 at 1:02 PM, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

Hard to argue... he can throw the ball 80 yards, led the league in TDs last year, & he has Andy Reid. 

 

I think it's hard to argue when a QB is in a great system.  Brady, you can't argue his greatness due to his rings and his clutch factor, but Brady also has played for probably the best coach in NFL history throughout his career.  The Patriots won 10+ games the year Brady was hurt with Matt Cassell, who never saw the field in college, and never really did anything after he left New England.  The Colts went from a favorite to go to the Super Bowl to 2-14 without Peyton.  I imagine if Peyton and Belichek were together for 18 years, he would have won more SBs and he would be considered a greater QB than Brady (can't prove it, but something to be said for how valuable Peyton was for his team vs. Brady to his team -- that team could have won 11 games with most starting QBs in the league and did it with a college back-up -- Peyton's team could've won 10+ with Peyton and managed to win 2 without him).  

 

Mahomes is a physical freak, for sure.... but would he put up 50/5,000 if he was on the Jets last year?  I don't think so.  The system has something to do with it and he played in a pass-happy offense and one which his WRs got him quite a lot of yards by running after the catch.  Reich is trying to establish a very balanced offense in Indy, and Luck had a very good year last year.  However, he also had less talent at skill positions than Mahommes and his best WR was playing hurt for half the year and his pro-bowl TE was on IR.  Sometimes numbers don't always tell the story.

 

Anyway, Mahomes had one of the best seasons by a QB in NFL history, so you're right, it's very hard to argue to keep him off the top 5. 

 

On 5/22/2019 at 3:41 PM, shastamasta said:

 

Has he been charged though? I realize the investigation is ongoing...but I don't think he's been charged with anything yet. And if that doesn't happen...the NFL won't really have any additional information because they (law enforcement) have already said they won't share that information with the NFL. So basically, they would be going off that audio and interviews they conduct with Hill after the investigation.

 

Trust me...I am not saying it's right...it's just how I think it might play out. Without charges...the audio will garner a multi-game suspension on its own...but then he will be back. 

 

Funny how video is so much more powerful than audio.  Kareem Hunt was crucified the second that video came out, Hill is getting press but nowhere near to Hunt's extent.  Hitting a woman or a child are both terrible things, but if it's not on video for the world to see, people don't seem to care quite as much.

 

On 5/22/2019 at 8:35 PM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The only 4 QB's I would trust more than Luck regarding the 2019 season are Brady, Brees, Mahomes, and Rodgers. Luck is an easy #5 to me at this point. He can carry a team more than Wilson can and Ben isn't as great as he once was. 

 

To Wilson's credit, he has led his team to a Superbowl (he also had a tremendous D).  The guy is a team leader and comes to play every week.  Rodgers had a good year last year, but to me, he's declined more than Ben has in the past couple seasons.  

 

Brady didn't have his best statistical season, but when it matters the guy still brings it better than anyone in football.  Mahomes, I'll have to see another year before I'd put more trust in him than Luck, though he's certainly a great talent.  I have a feeling Luck makes players around him better than Mahomes does, and would be able to do more with less, but we'll see how coaches adjust to Mahomes after having a year of tape on him.

 

On 5/23/2019 at 7:15 AM, Valpo2004 said:

Tom's fading and relying more and more on his team.  He's still a good QB but not top 5. 

 

I would like to see more out of Mahomes then one year.  If he can string together another year or 2 of the kind of production he's had then I think he's the #1 QB in the NFL and it would be hard to argue.  But RG3 had a great first season too.  

 

1. Brees

2. Rodgers

3. Luck

4. Ryan

5. Rivers

 

Rivers had one of his best seasons of his career last year.  I still think he's kind of a head case (which is why I would undoubtedly put Brady ahead of him, Brady is probably the most clutch QB of all time).  And as others have said, if it's 'what have you done for me lately?' there's no way to keep Mahomes off that list.  However, something about Mahomes screams RG3 II to me -- just the style of play he has seems like he's going to be prone to get injured.

 

On 5/23/2019 at 2:34 PM, Superman said:

 

Rodgers had a strong season in 2018, guys.

 

It seems as though the talent around Rodgers has gone down over time.  He is basically carrying that entire offense.  Part of me thinks he's declining, and I know he's had a few injuries in the past few years, but then part of me thinks he's also playing with a JV team and still figuring out how to make things work.

 

15 hours ago, Superman said:

 

(Houston wasn't consistent for KC last year, so assuming he'll be a consistent rusher for us this year is myopic, at best)

 

Houston had a QB hit or at least one sack in 10 of 12 games last year and then got hurt.  I'd call that pretty consistent for a pass rush specialist (9 sacks in 12 games is pretty darn good, he would have been tied for Colts' team lead in sacks along with Autry who also had 9 in 12 games). 

 

I think Houston's still playing at a high level.  Let's just hope he can stay healthy.  I have a feeling part of the reason Ballard brought him in was to get instant production, but also to mentor our young guys like Turay, Lewis, and some rookies.... and imagine he will be rotated in and out a lot, so hopefully he can stay healthy and be effective when we need him.

 

13 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

I don't think Luck is underrated. I actually think there is a level that Luck hasn't reached yet. We have seen flashes of it...just not a huge sample size. That's not to say he needs to step up...just that he hasn't maxed out yet. And when he gets to that next tier...then he will be a bonafide top 5 QB.

 

Look at some of the other top QBs in the NFL (Brady, Big Ben, Brees, Ryan)...they all took their game to another level around at or just past the age of 30. Luck is heading into that age 30 season. He has the OL...he has weapons...he has the coaching...so I think he can get there...but we will see.

 

 

 

Luck came into the league to the team that was a joke the year before.  We didn't really improve talent wise and he took a 2 win team to an 11 win team as a rookie, that is pretty remarkable.   Very few rookies who come onto the worst team in the league have years like that (Peyton was 3-13 as a rookie for example... Mayfield last year helped the Browns, but the Browns also invested into putting significant talent upgrades around him).  

 

Luck has also had a lot of turmoil to go through during his career.  He came into the league with Arians as his offensive coordinator and played in an 'air-it-out' style offense where he was throwing bombs down the field.  Year 2, he had Pep as his OC and the offense totally changed (and he still performed at a high level and carried us to 11 wins).  He had Pep for another year and then Chud became the OC, so he had to play in a totally new offense (3 offensive schemes in 4 years is a lot for a young man to go through, and few people, IMO, have the mental capacity and physical skill of Luck to  not have a losing season in any of those years).

 

Luck's also not had a lot of talent around him.  Sure, he's had TY his entire career and he had Doyle (who didn't really break out until after Luck got hurt).  Otherwise, until having Ebron last year, he's not really had a lot of receiving threats.  Also, until last year, he was running for his life every time he took a snap (if he wasn't so big, I imagine he would've been injured well before he actually got injured).

 

Hopefully Reich gives him some consistency and he can actually grow into an evolving offensive scheme rather than have to learn a new one every year.  If that happens, and if he stays healthy, I see no reason he shouldn't make the leap to unquestionably being in the top tier of QBs (especially if Ballard keeps providing him with talent).  The thing that will be tough to really keep track of will be his numbers -- Reich sounds serious about wanting to be a top 5 running team.  That will be nice, as it'll keep our offense balanced and keep Luck healthy.... but it may also mean Luck's not going to be throwing for 5,000 yards and 50 TD's like a guy such as Mahomes who is in a more pass-oriented system.

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19 hours ago, Superman said:

 

There are some posts in this thread that are selling Luck short. In general, having him in the 5-8 range isn't a problem, but comments like 'he needs to step up' or 'he can't beat good QBs' display a lack of perspective and understanding. JMO.

 

As for him taking another step to that elite tier, I agree. I only have three QBs on that tier right now. He might not get there; I think he has what it takes physically and mentally, so I expect that he will, but that's rarefied air, so it's not a given. (And with a recency bias, it's not hard to see why Mahomes would be ahead of Luck, even though he has a shorter resume.)

 

And yes, this is the age range where a lot of QBs take that next step toward or into elite status. And to me, you only get to that status after establishing a track record of proven performance at that excelling level of play, not just one year (Matt Ryan, Pat Mahomes), and not with a lot of personal ups and downs. Luck was probably on his way to this group after 2014, but he started getting hurt. I also felt his offensive coaches weren't ideal to maximize his efficiency, which is something I think is really valuable in modern day QBing. The playmaking was already there, as early as 2012, to be honest; just look at the comebacks.

 

Of those elite guys, Rodgers is the one that broke the door down early. He was in his age 28 season, the year after the SB win, when he started combining insane efficiency with outstanding production; and he rode the bench for three seasons, so he was arguably behind schedule. Luck could have done it at 26, but that's when things started falling apart (bad OCs, worse OL, injuries). Assume that Luck picks up where he left off last season, and isn't limited by the shoulder, and the coaching continues to excel -- Reich was in a zone as a playcaller for a long stretch last year -- and we could see Luck with a 2016 Matt Ryan type of season.

 

Definitely. Not sure how much stock people put into passer rating...but Luck has yet to break the 100 threshold in that area. Now that's only one stat...and it's directional...but it's meant to be a (somewhat) holistic account of the season. 

 

Meanwhile, Luck's counterparts have surpassed that level...and many did so at this age. Luck will have to get much more efficient though...and if he does...I think a Ryan-esque season could very much be in play. The key to that consistency will be decision-making (of course)...but also having an offensive system that values high percentage throws and weapons that have the potential for YAC. Parris Campbell is a huge step in that direction.

 

 

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7 hours ago, stitches said:

His coaches are telling you what they think of him by the way they construct their offenses. This is not a new development. His offense has been structured around the running game pretty much since the start of his career with Lynch and they are trying to recreate it now too(drafting RB in the 1st). He could never do what Luck has been asked to do. (just like Luck probably cannot do what they ask of Wilson too).  

 

Give him some protection and receiving tools, and get him away from guys like Darell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer, and I think he would be just fine as a pocket passer. He doesn't abandon the pocket because he can't see over the line; he abandons the pocket because a) no one is open, and b) they can't protect him. He avoids sacks and extends plays as well as any QB in the league, and still gets sacked 40-50 times every year.

 

The early offenses he played in limited him and put him in a position to be a dual threat. Since then, the running game has declined dramatically, his receiving options have declined dramatically, and the designed QB runs have declined. Yet, his passing efficiency has improved, especially last season. He does leave some throws on the field, but that's more of an abundance of caution to avoid interceptions; Rodgers does the same thing.

 

There's nothing about his game that would prevent his efficiency from extrapolating successfully with more volume. I mean, his TD % might go down some, and his INT % might go up some, but he has some room to give in both areas, and still be highly efficient. The fact that he only has Tyler Lockett to throw to and Brian Schottenheimer is calling plays is the bigger issue, IMO.

 

Like you say, he's not like Luck and won't hang in the pocket and wait for open receivers, then deliver a tough pass with a rusher bearing down on him. But I don't see why his game would fall apart with 600 attempts/season.

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6 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

I imagine if Peyton and Belichek were together for 18 years, he would have won more SBs and he would be considered a greater QB than Brady (can't prove it, but something to be said for how valuable Peyton was for his team vs. Brady to his team -- that team could have won 11 games with most starting QBs in the league and did it with a college back-up -- Peyton's team could've won 10+ with Peyton and managed to win 2 without him).  

 

Or how about this: Imagine Brady having to get past a Belichick-led team/defense in the playoffs. 

 

The major impediment Manning and other QBs have faced over the last 15+ seasons is not going against Tom Brady in the playoffs. It's going against Belichick in the playoffs. But Brady has never had the privilege.

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6 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

Houston had a QB hit or at least one sack in 10 of 12 games last year and then got hurt.  I'd call that pretty consistent for a pass rush specialist (9 sacks in 12 games is pretty darn good, he would have been tied for Colts' team lead in sacks along with Autry who also had 9 in 12 games). 

 

I think Houston's still playing at a high level.  Let's just hope he can stay healthy.  I have a feeling part of the reason Ballard brought him in was to get instant production, but also to mentor our young guys like Turay, Lewis, and some rookies.... and imagine he will be rotated in and out a lot, so hopefully he can stay healthy and be effective when we need him.

 

I think Houston can play well for us. I'm just saying, he's not the game-wrecking pass rusher he was five years ago. And I'm saying that in response to the idea that the Colts have a SB-caliber roster around Luck, because I think that's an epic stretch.

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9 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think Houston can play well for us. I'm just saying, he's not the game-wrecking pass rusher he was five years ago. And I'm saying that in response to the idea that the Colts have a SB-caliber roster around Luck, because I think that's an epic stretch.

We have a SB caliber roster with the upgrades we added and will

add before the first game. Maybe not the 85 Bears but definitely 

SB conversation worthy.

 

What holes on the roster do you see other than possibly the 

interior defensive line? 

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27 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Give him some protection and receiving tools, and get him away from guys like Darell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer, and I think he would be just fine as a pocket passer. He doesn't abandon the pocket because he can't see over the line; he abandons the pocket because a) no one is open, and b) they can't protect him. He avoids sacks and extends plays as well as any QB in the league, and still gets sacked 40-50 times every year.

 

The early offenses he played in limited him and put him in a position to be a dual threat. Since then, the running game has declined dramatically, his receiving options have declined dramatically, and the designed QB runs have declined. Yet, his passing efficiency has improved, especially last season. He does leave some throws on the field, but that's more of an abundance of caution to avoid interceptions; Rodgers does the same thing.

 

There's nothing about his game that would prevent his efficiency from extrapolating successfully with more volume. I mean, his TD % might go down some, and his INT % might go up some, but he has some room to give in both areas, and still be highly efficient. The fact that he only has Tyler Lockett to throw to and Brian Schottenheimer is calling plays is the bigger issue, IMO.

 

Like you say, he's not like Luck and won't hang in the pocket and wait for open receivers, then deliver a tough pass with a rusher bearing down on him. But I don't see why his game would fall apart with 600 attempts/season.

I don't agree entirely with some of your statements here. His O-Line has been bad, no questions about that, but also, you have to account for how he makes his OLine's responsibilities harder to handle. Andy Benoit and Greg Cosell have pointed that out in the past - he moves out of the pocket and out of structure of the offense, not only when he faces pressure, but when he doesn't see - again because of his size - he cannot see some of the passing lanes so he escapes the pocket and creates his own vision lanes with fewer bodies in front of him. Him moving around is one way that makes protecting him harder... he compensates by being elusive, but it all comes into the equation when we are talking about whether or not he will ever be able to be a pocket passer (Luck type of game) and be one of the players with higher number of passes in the league. 

 

Now I'm not defending Shottenheimer here and I think they've limited him WAY TOO much, but I also do think it will be extremely hard for them to get him to 600+ attempts a season even if they tried without his efficiency dropping significantly. 

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1 hour ago, dodsworth said:

We have a SB caliber roster with the upgrades we added and will

add before the first game. Maybe not the 85 Bears but definitely 

SB conversation worthy.

 

What holes on the roster do you see other than possibly the 

interior defensive line? 

 

We barely won 10 games last year, with an easy schedule, playing bad QBs, and with little competition in the division. The defense in general wasn't good, and the passing defense got ate up in the intermediate levels. The pass defense was predictable a lot of the time. We only got pressure by blitzing, which undermines coverage. 

 

On offense, the right side of the line wasn't great in pass pro. The receivers didn't get any YAC last year, and dropped way too many passes. We got shut out at one point last season.

 

Now, to be clear, I think we could have a roster that's capable of winning a SB. I was pushing back against the idea that this roster should be expected to win a SB, this year, and if we don't, it means Luck isn't pulling his weight or is letting the team down. 

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On 5/22/2019 at 1:10 PM, Horse Shoe Heaven said:

His list is a good one. Luck if not top 5 he is close. Its like ice cream all flavors are good which is your preference. I don't think his list is a sleight to Luck its his oppion. Luck has to prove him wrong.

except mint.... mint ice cream sucks

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1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

We barely won 10 games last year, with an easy schedule, playing bad QBs, and with little competition in the division. The defense in general wasn't good, and the passing defense got ate up in the intermediate levels. The pass defense was predictable a lot of the time. We only got pressure by blitzing, which undermines coverage. 

 

On offense, the right side of the line wasn't great in pass pro. The receivers didn't get any YAC last year, and dropped way too many passes. We got shut out at one point last season.

 

Now, to be clear, I think we could have a roster that's capable of winning a SB. I was pushing back against the idea that this roster should be expected to win a SB, this year, and if we don't, it means Luck isn't pulling his weight or is letting the team down. 

 

This is harsh reality.  Well said.

 

I'm still high on our chances and excited for the season more than anytime in recent memory.  Even if this schedule includes Brees, Ryan, Rivers, Foles, and Cam, as well as Mahomes, Flacco and Watson.  ... Can't Wait!

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2 hours ago, stitches said:

I don't agree entirely with some of your statements here. His O-Line has been bad, no questions about that, but also, you have to account for how he makes his OLine's responsibilities harder to handle. Andy Benoit and Greg Cosell have pointed that out in the past - he moves out of the pocket and out of structure of the offense, not only when he faces pressure, but when he doesn't see - again because of his size - he cannot see some of the passing lanes so he escapes the pocket and creates his own vision lanes with fewer bodies in front of him. Him moving around is one way that makes protecting him harder... he compensates by being elusive, but it all comes into the equation when we are talking about whether or not he will ever be able to be a pocket passer (Luck type of game) and be one of the players with higher number of passes in the league. 

 

Now I'm not defending Shottenheimer here and I think they've limited him WAY TOO much, but I also do think it will be extremely hard for them to get him to 600+ attempts a season even if they tried without his efficiency dropping significantly. 

 

I'd like to see them take the handcuffs off and push his limits. I definitely don't think they're getting the max out of him. 

 

In sales, they say if you don't have any refunds or cancellations, you're not maximizing your opportunities and you're leaving business on the table. I think the same principle applies here. They're getting decent production and great efficiency, and I think they can push that further, even sacrificing a little efficiency, and get more production, more playmaking, and win more games. And I'm talking about him as a passer, specifically; overall, he sometimes accounts for 80%+ of their offensive production.

 

As far as abandoning the pocket, I know that he'll scramble prematurely, but I think the impact his height has on him bailing out is overstated. NFL QBs don't stand tall and throw the ball over a brick wall; passing windows open up, the protections get moved, play action gets QBs on the move, RW will roll out and throw on the move, etc. Drew Brees manipulates the pocket as well as Tom Brady, and he's at least four inches shorter. There's a level of expertise that RW will continue to gain as he becomes less reliant on his ability to evade rushers, and eventually he'll have to be less reluctant to pull the trigger, but I don't think that's just tied to his height. 

 

Edit: A lot of QBs miss open receivers, even good ones. But when RW misses one, it's always attributed to his height. I think it's overstated.

 

This article from last year details some of RW's work in the pocket, with plenty of gifs showing how he works in the pocket. And this tweet shows that he has one of the highest passer ratings in the pocket. Not saying he can't improve, just saying I think it's the go-to response from a lot of people to say 'he struggles in the pocket because of his height,' when there's plenty of evidence that he works well in the pocket.

 

And even if his height is a challenge in the pocket, there are obvious ways to mitigate that factor, and increase his volume. Most QBs are more efficient on play action -- a great way to open passing windows -- and RW is no exception there. He can throw on the run as well as anyone else. And of course, their protection sucks, which is the primary reason he bails out, IMO. 

 

I need to see him fail as a higher volume passer, with decent protection and more than one small receiver as a legit option, and let's even get crazy and give him a good playcaller. Without that, I think the real limitations to his game are his circumstances, not his ability.

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2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I think Houston can play well for us. I'm just saying, he's not the game-wrecking pass rusher he was five years ago. And I'm saying that in response to the idea that the Colts have a SB-caliber roster around Luck, because I think that's an epic stretch.

 

I agree. He is still playing at a high level, though not dominant.

 

And yes, we'll see how some of the young guys have progressed in year 2-3 and how well the rookies can come in and do.  Leonard had a very good year last year, but it'll be interesting to see if he can repeat that, or if he'll digress a little.  I expect Turay to make the biggest leap, as I think he was a raw athlete and seems to be really focusing on honing his football craft.  Lewis, I tend to think is a limited athlete and I'm not really sure we'll see him get much better.

 

In response to another post of yours, where you mention us getting eaten up in the middle of the field/intermediate passing game last year:  I got the feeling last year that Eberflus was playing pretty vanilla on D for a couple reasons (1) lack of talent and speed, and (2) we were very young.

 

We definitely got faster with some of the rookies, and although Houston isn't what he was 5 years ago, he's still probably an improvement to the pass rush.  I think we also added players Eberflus likes (in terms of athleticism, etc.) for the scheme he wants to run.  I imagine he's going to add a few wrinkles into the D this year... but a lot of that will depend on the learning curve.

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

We barely won 10 games last year, with an easy schedule, playing bad QBs, and with little competition in the division. The defense in general wasn't good, and the passing defense got ate up in the intermediate levels. The pass defense was predictable a lot of the time. We only got pressure by blitzing, which undermines coverage. 

 

On offense, the right side of the line wasn't great in pass pro. The receivers didn't get any YAC last year, and dropped way too many passes. We got shut out at one point last season.

 

Now, to be clear, I think we could have a roster that's capable of winning a SB. I was pushing back against the idea that this roster should be expected to win a SB, this year, and if we don't, it means Luck isn't pulling his weight or is letting the team down. 

Good post but there are holes in it. Last year the team went to the 

playoffs and won a game on the road and 7 of our draft picks

went toward the defense, most of those picks went toward the

linebackers and defensive back position. This alone should

help the pass defense, not to mention the Houston addition.

 

The new offensive additions of Campbell, Funch, Ware

and Cain should go a long way in solving some problems

during scoring drouts, not to mention the addition of a new

O line coach with Howard Mudd thrown in as icing on the cake.

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1 hour ago, Smonroe said:

 

This is harsh reality.  Well said.

 

I'm still high on our chances and excited for the season more than anytime in recent memory.  Even if this schedule includes Brees, Ryan, Rivers, Foles, and Cam, as well as Mahomes, Flacco and Watson.  ... Can't Wait!

 

I'm high on our chances, and I like the way the roster is being constructed. I've been asking for fast, rangy ILBs since 2013, and it seems like it's now a priority for Ballard and Eberflus. I've been asking for change of pace backs and YAC receivers for two or three years now, and an offense to take advantage of them, and it seems like it's now a priority for Ballard and Reich. The OL is a point of strength for the first time since 2007. We added really promising players in the secondary, and we still have young and promising guys back there from the 2017 draft -- Wilson and Hooker still have a lot to show, and I'm optimistic about both of them.

 

But we have a tough anticipated schedule, the division should theoretically be better (Foles to JAX is a big deal, IMO; they went to the AFCCG with Bortles two years ago, Foles is at least as good as 2017 Bortles), I wouldn't be surprised if there's a statistical regression with the OL (it's hard to give up just 18 sacks in a season, and sacks is an imperfect stat to grade OL play on anyways), etc. 

 

I think we have a top ten roster, and I'm optimistic about 2019, but it's not like we're a top five team on paper, or based on last year's results. Still a lot to prove moving forward.

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