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Stitches draft grades and thoughts on the Colts draft

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We are in sinc.  I'm sort of sketchy about Green and Willis as well, but I'm keeping an open mind.

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I didn't read yours yet because I'm still working on mine. Don't want to be tainted.

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44 minutes ago, krunk said:

We are in sinc.  I'm sort of sketchy about Green and Willis as well, but I'm keeping an open mind.

I still think Green ends up on the PS and spends the year redshirting.

 

Willis is the least athletic of the entire bunch (per measurables) but they see intangibles in him thst elevated him above those measurables. As someone pointed out he could be a player like John Lynch who was more cerebral versus physically gifted. 

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14 minutes ago, Scott Pennock said:

I still think Green ends up on the PS and spends the year redshirting.

 

Willis is the least athletic of the entire bunch (per measurables) but they see intangibles in him thst elevated him above those measurables. As someone pointed out he could be a player like John Lynch who was more cerebral versus physically gifted. 

It's either Lynch or I also think Ballard may be thinking back to the old Bears squads under Lovie Smith when they had Mike Brown.  Willis kind of reminds me of Mike Brown also.

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Pretty much in full agreement here.

Ya-Sin and Banogu would be a B and B- for me. Fine picks, good potential especially with Ya-Sin. Although like yourself I also had guys at both positions, especially Banogu, I liked more. 

Also loved the Campbell, Tell, and Okereke picks. Nothing to add there.

I too wasn't a big fan of the trade up for Willis. I know he fits Ballard's character traits completely, and think he could be decent, possibly even an average starter at some point. But I don't see too high a ceiling there.

Also agreed on Green. I didn't mind the pick but I just don't see him panning out. Oh well. 6th rounder and all.

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2 hours ago, krunk said:

It's either Lynch or I also think Ballard may be thinking back to the old Bears squads under Lovie Smith when they had Mike Brown.  Willis kind of reminds me of Mike Brown also.

Very true. Mike Brown was limited physically but he played smart. That's a good comp.

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Willis also reminds me of Mike Minter. I think your grading is pretty accurate. But, I disagree with your grade on Green, I really like that pick, and Tell, I am not to confident with that pick. Hope Tell proves me wrong.

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Very interesting read Stitches. Thanks for doing this.  I have a few disagreements.

I like the Rock, and give that pick a B+. I think he has the talent and intangibles to star in this D.

I give the Banogu pick a C+.  To me, that pick was a gamble on sheer athletic talent and a strong work ethic.... but because its Ballard, I am giving it the benefit of the doubt, crossing my fingers and hoping for the best. 

I also think your grade on Willis is too harsh. I'd give it a B. He looks like he can play a hybrid SS role, and I think he'll be a starter by 2020. He's just a darn good, very smart football player. 

I agree with the Campbell grade; he's what the team needed. 

Overall, I grade the draft as a B+. Not spectacular, but very solid. 

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The Willis pick was my favorite pick.  We needed an heir apparent for Geathers, and we couldn’t have gotten a better man than this guy.  (Okay, I exaggerated: Parris Campbell was my favorite.)

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I'm in general agreement with your assessment.  I think the Parris Campbell pick is the Big Moment of our draft.  Fantastic pick.  I also really like Rock Ya-Sin.  I think he has that same physical, tough nature/attitude that we're building, that's so personified by Darius Leonard.

The trade up to 106 for Willis is what trips me up, too.  Amani Hooker was still on the board at that point.  Had they traded up for Amani, I would be dancing out in front of my house.  Now, it's possible that Amani has lesser coverage skills and is more of a box safety than Willis, but I think he'll be the better football player in the long run.  I'm a big question mark on E.J. Speed.  But I love the Patterson pick at the end of the draft.

I'm generally in favor of how it turned out.  And given how his picks have turned out, I'm gonna go with Ballard's expertise.

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7 hours ago, stitches said:

. I see people preparing him to start instead of Gaethers and I can't say I see what they are seeing

 

Just based on Geathers' injury history, Willis srarting sooner rather than later is probably a solid bet.  

 

I didn't like the Banogu pick initially.  I get it now.  I think I understand what they're going for these LBs.  As a DE, Banogu can be taught technique and pass rushing moves.  

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I’m here with you the Willis pick honestly had me scratching me head. Especially given who was still on the board at that position like Amani Hooker. I’ve watched his film and nothing really sticks out or wows me about him. He really seems like an average safety. They really were Clamorous over his ability to cover TE’s  and Backs our the backfield so I assume they plan on utilizing him in sub packages. But I’m not hoping on his hype train just yet.

18 minutes ago, #12. said:

 

Just based on Geathers' injury history, Willis srarting sooner rather than later is probably a solid bet.  

 

I didn't like the Banogu pick initially.  I get it now.  I think I understand what they're going for these LBs.  As a DE, Banogu can be taught technique and pass rushing moves.  

 

Even then I see Farley taking over for Geathers if he goes down not Willis. 

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37 minutes ago, ProblChld32 said:

 

 

Even then I see Farley taking over for Geathers if he goes down not Willis. 

 

I don't know, I get the sense Ballard is much higher on Willis than are some of the fans.  

 

Remember, Ballard said he considered taking Willis in the 3rd, presumably instead of Okereke.

 

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No interest in grading each pick. 

 

Overall, I’d give the class a B/B-plus.

 

I’d say the class would be ranked around 8-10.   Roughly about the top 25-33 percent of the 32 classes.  

 

Considering where we were picking,  26th in each round,  I’m very pleased with our 2019 class. 

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4 hours ago, Hoose said:

Very interesting read Stitches. Thanks for doing this.  I have a few disagreements.

I like the Rock, and give that pick a B+. I think he has the talent and intangibles to star in this D.

I give the Banogu pick a C+.  To me, that pick was a gamble on sheer athletic talent and a strong work ethic.... but because its Ballard, I am giving it the benefit of the doubt, crossing my fingers and hoping for the best. 

I also think your grade on Willis is too harsh. I'd give it a B. He looks like he can play a hybrid SS role, and I think he'll be a starter by 2020. He's just a darn good, very smart football player. 

I agree with the Campbell grade; he's what the team needed. 

Overall, I grade the draft as a B+. Not spectacular, but very solid. 

 

1 hour ago, #12. said:

 

Just based on Geathers' injury history, Willis srarting sooner rather than later is probably a solid bet.  

 

I didn't like the Banogu pick initially.  I get it now.  I think I understand what they're going for these LBs.  As a DE, Banogu can be taught technique and pass rushing moves.  

 

2 hours ago, Archer said:

The Willis pick was my favorite pick.  We needed an heir apparent for Geathers, and we couldn’t have gotten a better man than this guy.  (Okay, I exaggerated: Parris Campbell was my favorite.)

 

Yeah, the Willis pick grade is the one that has the highest potential to bite me in the butt. There might be something I'm not seeing in the way we will use him that make him a great fit, but I just had to be honest with what I saw. It might be failure of my imagination here, and the value we gave up for him suggests that Ballard probably liked him A LOT, thus trading up 20 spots for him... he probably had him ranked as a clearcut day 2 type of player. Oh well, noone is perfect and I'd happily eat crow when Willis is our latest rookie all-pro at the end of the season :D  

 

 

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1 hour ago, stitches said:

 

 

 

Yeah, the Willis pick grade is the one that has the highest potential to bite me in the butt. There might be something I'm not seeing in the way we will use him that make him a great fit, but I just had to be honest with what I saw. It might be failure of my imagination here, and the value we gave up for him suggests that Ballard probably liked him A LOT, thus trading up 20 spots for him... he probably had him ranked as a clearcut day 2 type of player. Oh well, noone is perfect and I'd happily eat crow when Willis is our latest rookie all-pro at the end of the season :D  

 

 

 

I thought you did a good job.  We tend to gush over our picks, mostly because of Ballard’s track record.  In reality, only time will tell.

 

whether an individual player works out or not, I think we can all see what CB is going for in scheme, personally and physicality.   

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Thanks for doing.........  After missing on my mock draft by a long way.......  Im not handing grades to anyone

 

 

When you get to the 4,5,6,7 picks.......   You almost HAVE to take risks

 

The "safe" players that can immediately start on an NFL team......  are mostly all gone

 

We had a good draft haul last year and we dont have 9 open spots on this roster

 

I can see 2-4 players.... on this list, that will be cut

 

 

Its whats happens when your roster improves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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@stitches I don't know if I agree with all of your grades, but it doesn't matter, that is some fine evaluation work.  Did you use other people's scouting or ? to come up with your draft order you quoted?  It seems unlikely you scouted all the players one at a time, but if you actually did, that is even more impressive.   Otherwise it would be interesting to know who you rely on for evaluations.  

 

Did you do this last year?  If so, could you renew the post so we can see how you did, just as you suggested we do with this one.  (Or at least tell us what you said about Leonard?) It takes guts to put it all out there on the record in detail.  

 

A good read! 

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7 hours ago, #12. said:

I don't know, I get the sense Ballard is much higher on Willis than are some of the fans. 

I think that is a fairly safe bet.  I've been watching more film on Willis since the draft and there certainly isn't much flash to his game. To me he seems a step slow but he still does his job. He's a sure tackler and seems to diagnose plays very well.  I think he can be a solid pro.

 

7 hours ago, #12. said:

Remember, Ballard said he considered taking Willis in the 3rd, presumably instead of Okereke.

You may be right but I thought Ballard said he thought about taking Okereke over Banogu in the 2nd round?

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1 hour ago, JPFolks said:

@stitches I don't know if I agree with all of your grades, but it doesn't matter, that is some fine evaluation work.  Did you use other people's scouting or ? to come up with your draft order you quoted?  It seems unlikely you scouted all the players one at a time, but if you actually did, that is even more impressive.   Otherwise it would be interesting to know who you rely on for evaluations.  

 

Did you do this last year?  If so, could you renew the post so we can see how you did, just as you suggested we do with this one.  (Or at least tell us what you said about Leonard?) It takes guts to put it all out there on the record in detail.  

 

A good read! 

 

I don't have a complicated evaluation/ranking process and thus I don't have any illusions about the quality of my rankings - I do this for fun and to see where I go wrong and right with players after several years. In general how I do my ranking is by asking myself the simplest question - if those 2 players are on the board who would I rather pick? This is a flawed and prone to biases process, but I really don't have the time and nerves to develop a more comprehensive and formal grading system that would spit out a number by which to rank the players.

 

I've watched most of the top 100-150 prospects on the film cutups that you can find on youtube for most prospects, this is in addition to watching games during the whole college football season and drawing impressions from those games too. I consume a ton of draft content(both written and in radio/podcast form) so it would be kind of delusional of me to think I don't get influenced by the ranking and evaluations of other people whose opinion I respect. I guess it's amalgamation of all of it - my own impressions and evaluations of players combined with what I read and listen to by draft analysts. 

 

As you can see from my write up - I had not watched several of the players we drafted before the draft(Willis, Speed, the OLinemen in the 7th round, Green), but I did try to find and watch all the available film of them after we drafted them so I can have a more informed opinion on them. 

 

I did do the same last year and it probably can be found on the board somewhere. Here's what I found on my computer from last year:

 

9wFHVFj.jpg

 

edit: about Leonard - I loved Leonard. I think I was one of the people highest on him around here. As you can see I had him ranked no. 38 on the board and he was my highest ranked LB left on the board where we picked him. I'd be lying if I tell you I expected him to be this good this soon but I did think he has the athletic and mental processing potential to be a high end linebacker in due time. 

 

I don't think I did a comprehensive grading of the picks last year but I did comment on some of them in their threads after we picked them... here's several on Leonard: 

Quote

I can see a Yannick Ngakue type of rookie season from Kemoko Turay if he can stay healthy. But if I had to bet I would choose the easy answer - Darius Leonard. I loved him in the draft and I think he can be a great 3 downs LB in the league. I think he's pretty much the only defensive player we drafted this year who is likely to be a 3 downs player in year 1 and I think he has the talent to stay on the field on all 3 downs and thus most probably have the biggest impact. 

 

Quote

Good pick. He was the best remaining LB IMO. Very instinctive and athletic... playmaker sideline to sideline. 

 

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Thanks @stitches...appreciate the knowledge you and the others bring to the Forum.

 

I just know Reich was ecstatic after the first 4 picks and was high-fiving everyone in the room, so if those 4 do what he expects, then I'll be happy!  Anything more is icing on the cake.

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42 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

I don't have a complicated evaluation/ranking process and thus I don't have any illusions about the quality of my rankings - I do this for fun and to see where I go wrong and right with players after several years. In general how I do my ranking is by asking myself the simplest question - if those 2 players are on the board who would I rather pick? This is a flawed and prone to biases process, but I really don't have the time and nerves to develop a more comprehensive and formal grading system that would spit out a number by which to rank the players.

 

I've watched most of the top 100-150 prospects on the film cutups that you can find on youtube for most prospects, this is in addition to watching games during the whole college football season and drawing impressions from those games too. I consume a ton of draft content(both written and in radio/podcast form) so it would be kind of delusional of me to think I don't get influenced by the ranking and evaluations of other people whose opinion I respect. I guess it's amalgamation of all of it - my own impressions and evaluations of players combined with what I read and listen to by draft analysts. 

 

As you can see from my write up - I had not watched several of the players we drafted before the draft(Willis, Speed, the OLinemen in the 7th round, Green), but I did try to find and watch all the available film of them after we drafted them so I can have a more informed opinion on them. 

 

I did do the same last year and it probably can be found on the board somewhere. Here's what I found on my computer from last year:

 

9wFHVFj.jpg

 

edit: about Leonard - I loved Leonard. I think I was one of the people highest on him around here. As you can see I had him ranked no. 38 on the board and he was my highest ranked LB left on the board where we picked him. I'd be lying if I tell you I expected him to be this good this soon but I did think he has the athletic and mental processing potential to be a high end linebacker in due time. 

 

I don't think I did a comprehensive grading of the picks last year but I did comment on some of them in their threads after we picked them... here's several on Leonard: 

 

 

That's pretty dang impressive! I hope you nailed the good ones this year as well! 

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I thought Okereke and Campbell were the best picks of the draft. Ya-Sin we’ll have to learn to play zone. Lots of athletic guys with good potential but undefined roles as it stands. We’ll see what happens.

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9 hours ago, #12. said:

 

I don't know, I get the sense Ballard is much higher on Willis than are some of the fans.  

 

Remember, Ballard said he considered taking Willis in the 3rd, presumably instead of Okereke.

 

 

That’s just how he was graded, at the end of the day the best 11 will play. Turay was taken in the second round and he was benched. Draft position doesn’t necessarily guarantee you starting. It just tells you how they had you graded on the board. Will Willis play? Absolutely imo he will play situationally but I don’t have him starting unless both Hooker and Geathers go down.

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1 hour ago, stitches said:

 

I don't have a complicated evaluation/ranking process and thus I don't have any illusions about the quality of my rankings - I do this for fun and to see where I go wrong and right with players after several years. In general how I do my ranking is by asking myself the simplest question - if those 2 players are on the board who would I rather pick? This is a flawed and prone to biases process, but I really don't have the time and nerves to develop a more comprehensive and formal grading system that would spit out a number by which to rank the players.

 

I've watched most of the top 100-150 prospects on the film cutups that you can find on youtube for most prospects, this is in addition to watching games during the whole college football season and drawing impressions from those games too. I consume a ton of draft content(both written and in radio/podcast form) so it would be kind of delusional of me to think I don't get influenced by the ranking and evaluations of other people whose opinion I respect. I guess it's amalgamation of all of it - my own impressions and evaluations of players combined with what I read and listen to by draft analysts. 

 

As you can see from my write up - I had not watched several of the players we drafted before the draft(Willis, Speed, the OLinemen in the 7th round, Green), but I did try to find and watch all the available film of them after we drafted them so I can have a more informed opinion on them. 

 

I did do the same last year and it probably can be found on the board somewhere. Here's what I found on my computer from last year:

 

9wFHVFj.jpg

 

edit: about Leonard - I loved Leonard. I think I was one of the people highest on him around here. As you can see I had him ranked no. 38 on the board and he was my highest ranked LB left on the board where we picked him. I'd be lying if I tell you I expected him to be this good this soon but I did think he has the athletic and mental processing potential to be a high end linebacker in due time. 

 

I don't think I did a comprehensive grading of the picks last year but I did comment on some of them in their threads after we picked them... here's several on Leonard: 

 

 

Welp, since I'm being called out on a post from a year ago, who is your 

defensive impact player of our draft this year Stitch? Lewis still did

some nice things on D last year when healthy.....when healthy.

 

Fun post of digging up the past. 

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14 minutes ago, ProblChld32 said:

I don’t have him starting unless both Hooker and Geathers go down

 

Who knows, but the guy has yet to take a practice rep.  The truth is if he wins the job in camp, he'll start over both Geathers and Farley.  Geathers on a one year deal with his injury history and Farley as a career depth player are hardly entrenched players.  It's not like Willis has to beat out TY.  

 

Ballard signing Geathers to a one year deal then drafting and showing all signs of being extremely high Willis says to me he probably wants and expects Willis to play sooner rather than later.  We'll see what happens.

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11 hours ago, #12. said:

 

Just based on Geathers' injury history, Willis srarting sooner rather than later is probably a solid bet.  

 

I didn't like the Banogu pick initially.  I get it now.  I think I understand what they're going for these LBs.  As a DE, Banogu can be taught technique and pass rushing moves.  

 

 As a DE Banogu is about 15lbs lite as a Ballard prototypical edge protector. (John Simon)
 Banogu is just right as a 1st down run stuffer at sam and for short yardage situations. Injuries could make him needed as a pass rusher. 
 If you watch him against Oklahoma you will see he has nothing against a good college RT Bobby Evans (pick 97 Rams). 

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25 minutes ago, dodsworth said:

Welp, since I'm being called out on a post from a year ago, who is your 

defensive impact player of our draft this year Stitch? Lewis still did

some nice things on D last year when healthy.....when healthy.

 

Fun post of digging up the past. 

Sorry, wasn't meant to call anyone out - I was just searching for my own posts about Leonard from about draft time. 

 

This year... I don't think there is as clearcut of an answer as last year simply because I don't see any of our defensive draft picks having guaranteed 3-downs snaps. I think Banogu has the highest floor simply because I think he will play 100% of the SAM snaps, but the SAM snaps are not very many - usually they max out at about 35% of all defensive snaps and I do think they will try to involve him and develop him as a pass-rusher so I expect him getting moved to the EDGE on passing downs sometimes. So in general I expect him to get about 50% of the snaps. 

 

I think Rock has the biggest chance to be 3 downs player(highest ceiling for impact) and he plays extremely important position so I guess if I had to make a pick it would be Rock, but I don't feel great about it. He will have to beat Quincy Wilson for the sub-packages outside CB snaps and will have to beat one of Moore or Desir for the base defense outside CB snaps. 

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3 minutes ago, #12. said:

 

Who knows, but the guy has yet to take a practice rep.  The truth is if he wins the job in camp, he'll start over both Geathers and Farley.  Geathers on a one year deal with his injury history and Farley as a career depth player are hardly entrenched players.  It's not like Willis has to beat out TY.  

 

Ballard signing Geathers to a one year deal then drafting and showing all signs of being extremely high Willis says to me he probably wants and expects Willis to play sooner rather than later.  We'll see what happens.

 

 If he wins the job in camp he will start.  chuckle

 TY is a good comparison. chuckle

  Who knows, maybe Ballard hopes he can get it sooner rather than later and can contribute on special teams and play ok if our vets miss time.
 IMO Odum will give him solid competition for PT.

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I don't see too many scenarios where Willis starts over both Geathers and Odum.

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3 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 As a DE Banogu is about 15lbs lite as a edge protector.
 Banogu is just right as a 1st down run stuffer at sam and for short yardage situations. Injuries could make him needed as a pass rusher. 
 If you watch him against Oklahoma you will see he has nothing against a good college RT Bobby Evans (pick 97 Rams). 

 

In the With the Next Pick mini-doc, Eberflus said if we draft him, we can teach him technique.  I'm guessing he was talking about Banogu.  Banogu told PFF that, at TCU, they weren't even taught pass rushing moves.  They only rushed with scheme.  So I get it.  You start him at SAM, send him on blitzes, work on his technique and work him into the DE rotation.  You hope you can turn an athletic freak into an impact pass rusher.  If not, he can still be valuable as an athletic SAM and a situational pass rusher - sort of a unique weapon.

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2 minutes ago, krunk said:

I don't see too many scenarios where Willis starts over both Geathers and Odum.

 

This sort of reminds me of two months ago when people were predicting three year 18 million dollar deals Geathers. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, #12. said:

 

This sort of reminds me of two months ago when people were predicting three year 18 million dollar deals Geathers. 

 

 

The reverse claim is just as crazy.  Some of you talk as if Geathers is David Gibson or somebody.

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6 minutes ago, krunk said:

The reverse claim is just as crazy.

Not sure what you mean, and I have no idea what will happen with Willis, but there is nothing about Geathers' situation - his level of play, his injury history, his peanuts one year contract - that says to me he is some sort of entrenched player.  

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24 minutes ago, #12. said:

Not sure what you mean, and I have no idea what will happen with Willis, but there is nothing about Geathers' situation - his level of play, his injury history, his peanuts one year contract - that says to me he is some sort of entrenched player.  

Why would Willis come in and start over him?  The Colts have never indicated not even once they were unhappy with his play. On the contrary Ballard has said he is a Big Clayton Geathers fan.   The injuries are what the concern is.  Plus Ballard has stated on more than one occasion they like what they have in Odum so I don't know what's driving you to think Willis just Walks right in and starts over the both of them immediately.

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15 minutes ago, #12. said:

 

This sort of reminds me of two months ago when people were predicting three year 18 million dollar deals Geathers. 

 

 

I was one that thought 3/18 was crazy for Geathers and thought what he got was about right. I still don't think Willis will be ready to take over Geathers' spot in year 1 if Geathers stays healthy. 

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Props to you @stitches for putting this together. I love reading members' takes on this stuff, especially when they don't just parrot the "every pick is great" or "every pick is terrible" mantra.

You did your own research and came with some original takes on these picks. It takes some 'nads to put your stuff out there and let folks shoot at it.

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11 hours ago, ProblChld32 said:

I’m here with you the Willis pick honestly had me scratching me head. Especially given who was still on the board at that position like Amani Hooker. I’ve watched his film and nothing really sticks out or wows me about him. He really seems like an average safety. They really were Clamorous over his ability to cover TE’s  and Backs our the backfield so I assume they plan on utilizing him in sub packages. But I’m not hoping on his hype train just yet.

 

Even then I see Farley taking over for Geathers if he goes down not Willis. 

Ill be honest, I dont know enough about Willis to speculate, but I am a huge Farley fan.  He makes an impact when he is in there.  He makes crucial, winning plays.  I have liked him more than Geathers for awhile now, a lot to do with availability, but talent wise I think he is right there with him too.  I think Farley has a better football IQ for sure.

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