Colts are 2nd Best Offense in NFL - Chris Wesseling

[DaveA1102]

Chris Wesseling from NFL.com (and Around the NFL Podcast) has issued his annual "NFL's top 10 Offenses" list, with the Colts at #2, behind only the Saints.

 

Below is the link to the full article:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001030168/article/nfls-top-10-offenses-saints-colts-eagles-best-of-bunch

 

With below being a copy of the Colts section from the article:

 

2) Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback: A | Andrew Luck, Jacoby Brissett

Perhaps the league's biggest mystery entering the season, Luck shrugged off early questions about his arm strength, finishing second only to Mahomes with 39 touchdowns while collecting Comeback Player of the Year honors. Just four months from his 30th birthday, the former No. 1 overall draft pick is a different quarterback under play-caller supreme Frank Reich, showing a quicker release time, superior ball placement and a command of the pocket.

 

Backfield: B | Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins, Spencer Ware

From Week 7 through Indianapolis' victory over the Texans in the Wild Card Round, Marlon Mack led all running backs in rushing first downs (51) and ranked second in carries (197), rushing yards (933) and rushing touchdowns (10). Can he stay healthy, run between the tackles and match that level of production across 16 games and a postseason run? Receiving specialist Nyheim Hines caught 63 passes as a rookie, showcasing the ability to beat linebackers and safeties on third downs. Versatile former Chiefs back Spencer Ware was recently signed for insurance.

 

Receiving corps: B+ | T.Y. Hilton, Devin Funchess, Eric Ebron (TE), Jack Doyle (TE), Parris Campbell, Chester Rogers, Zach Pascal, Deon Cain

Luck is going to love throwing to big-bodied former Panthers wideout Devin Funchess and rookie playmaker Parris Campbell after leaning heavily on undrafted projects (Rogers, Pascal, Alie-Cox, Erik Swoope) and journeymen free agents (Ryan Grant, Dontrelle Inman) for significant portions of the 2018 season. Throw in a healthy version of Doyle, and this figures to be one of the most improved position groups in the division.

 

Offensive line: A- | Anthony Castonzo, Braden Smith, Quenton Nelson, Mark Glowinski, Ryan Kelly, Joe Haeg, Evan Boehm

Prior to Reich's arrival, the Colts couldn't run the ball or protect Luck. With rookie All-Pro Quenton Nelson setting a bone-jarring tone, both of those problems vanished by midseason. The offensive line went from long-running punchline to head of the class, paving the way for nine 100-yard rushing performances (including the postseason) while leading the NFL in stingiest sack rate (2.8%). The starting line returns intact for 2019.

[braveheartcolt]

Nice. The receiving corps need to drop a lot less balls this year to get close to a B+. We were pretty high on offensive penalties as well if I recall. Clean up those two blips, we could be the clear #1 by end of year....

[BlueCrew48]

I am confused how the best offensive line in class can be an A- though???  Curious what qualifies as an A or A+ in Wesselings opinion.

[MFT5]

How are the Saints number one w 3Bs & 1A when he lists the Colts w 2As and 2Bs

 

the chiefs replaced tyreek w mecole so they could still be a top 5 O still and McVay and goff better add some new elements cuz NE opened the door on that mess

[braveheartcolt]

Being 'the best' doesn't mean they are perfect. Room for inprovement.....

 

 

 

[chad72]

3 minutes ago, braveheartcolt said:

Nice. The receiving corps need to drop a lot less balls this year to get close to a B+. We were pretty high on offensive penalties as well if I recall. Clean up those two blips, we could be the clear #1 by end of year....

 

True. They were well thrown balls too, and most of the drops did happen during that 1-5 start and the percentage dropped thereafter. With the schedule this year, we have to hit the ground running with not much room for error. If we start fast enough, we could go as high as 12-4, otherwise it could be another 10-6 year. Difference between a first round bye and a wild card home/road game at best.

[chad72]

8 minutes ago, MFT5 said:

How are the Saints number one w 3Bs & 1A when he lists the Colts w 2As and 2Bs

 

the chiefs replaced tyreek w mecole so they could still be a top 5 O still

 

Mecole is very raw, much like Tyreek was when he came into the league, so the route running has to be upped big time and will take at least a year. 

 

Damien Williams is underrated, no doubt to me, and Sammy Watkins/Kelce will be leaned upon more this year. I still think the Chiefs take a step back and will be teetering on the outside of a Top 5 offense this year. Their schedule has them playing the AFC South, which are actually not that soft on the defensive side vs the pass, plus playing the Ravens and Patriots, and the NFC North gives them tough pass Ds to play against. 

[BlueCrew48]

11 minutes ago, braveheartcolt said:

Being 'the best' doesn't mean they are perfect. Room for inprovement.....

 

 

 

 

So by that logic there is no room for improvement for Patrick Mahommes.... He gets an A+ after 1 good season.  I guess in my mind, when you are the best at something, in the best league, that makes you the best.  IMO, the best should get an A+ and trickle down from there.  Likely this is how the QB position was scored.

[Buck Showalter]

18 minutes ago, BlueCrew48 said:

I am confused how the best offensive line in class can be an A- though???  Curious what qualifies as an A or A+ in Wesselings opinion.

Obviously not grading on a bell

[gspdx]

My offensive wish list.

 

I would like to see a team that can average 30 pts a game and control the ball when necessary.  Might be asking a lot.

 

Get the lead, extend the lead, and demoralize the other team by burning away the clock.

 

[CR91]

1 hour ago, BlueCrew48 said:

I am confused how the best offensive line in class can be an A- though???  Curious what qualifies as an A or A+ in Wesselings opinion.

 

Being a cowboy fan 

[superrep1967]

I'm so looking forward to the season I can't it. 

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, BlueCrew48 said:

 

So by that logic there is no room for improvement for Patrick Mahommes.... He gets an A+ after 1 good season.  I guess in my mind, when you are the best at something, in the best league, that makes you the best.  IMO, the best should get an A+ and trickle down from there.  Likely this is how the QB position was scored.

 

 Likely it wasn't scored that way. Mahomes didn't have a good season!
 He showed traits of the best there has ever been.
  By your standards the best player at his position at any given time would get the grade of past Hall of Famers even if he doesn't play at that level.
IMO that is not how this guy would grade.

[Boiler_Colt]

All the hype the Colts are getting is making me nervous. They have the talent on paper, but I'm pumping the brakes on my own expectations. The last time they were talked up this much was 2015 and that's when the wheels fell off. I think they can be tremendous but they have to stay healthy and prove it. They have targets on their backs now.

[Jason_]

2 hours ago, BlueCrew48 said:

I am confused how the best offensive line in class can be an A- though???  Curious what qualifies as an A or A+ in Wesselings opinion.

 

You can have the best grade in the class without having a perfect score.

[Coltsfan66]

2 hours ago, Buck Showalter said:

Obviously not grading on a bell

Well played Sir!

[Superman]

In May...

 

I like where our offense is headed, but I have a lot of questions. I'm also concerned about regression and sophomore slumps affecting the OL.

[chad72]

1 hour ago, Boiler_Colt said:

All the hype the Colts are getting is making me nervous. They have the talent on paper, but I'm pumping the brakes on my own expectations. The last time they were talked up this much was 2015 and that's when the wheels fell off. I think they can be tremendous but they have to stay healthy and prove it. They have targets on their backs now.

 

Reggie Wayne and Pat McAfee trolling the Titans at the draft means those 2 games got chippier now.  

[Smonroe]

3 hours ago, gspdx said:

My offensive wish list.

 

I would like to see a team that can average 30 pts a game and control the ball when necessary.  Might be asking a lot.

 

Get the lead, extend the lead, and demoralize the other team by burning away the clock.

 

 

Every coach’s dream.  

[Stephen]

1 hour ago, Smonroe said:

 

Every coach’s dream.  

40 points a game

[dodsworth]

If we can get our defense 2nd best also then we are going places.

[Cynjin]

6 hours ago, gspdx said:

My offensive wish list.

 

I would like to see a team that can average 30 pts a game and control the ball when necessary.  Might be asking a lot.

 

Get the lead, extend the lead, and demoralize the other team by burning away the clock.

 

 

Well, they averaged 27.1 points a game last season, so 30 could be doable.

[EastStreet]

So to compare how he graded teams last year at the same time of the year (link below),  their total O rank at season's end, and projected rank this year,,

 

2018 Projected Rank / Actual 2018 Total O Rank / 2019 Projected Rank

1. Saints / 8th / 1st again...

2. Pats / 5th / NR

3. Steelers / 4th / 9th

4. Falcons / 6th / 4th

5. Chargers / 11th / 8th

6. Packers / 12th / 10th

7. Eagles / 14th / 3rd

8. Rams / 2nd / 5th

9. Vikings / 20th / NR

10. Lions / 24th / NR

 

Missed the boat on KC who was 1st last year, and the Vikings and Lions.....

His confidence dropped this year on the Pats, Steelers. He's very high on the Eagles this year... meh... Colts are the biggest movers up, with the Browns advancing too. 

 

In short, grain of salt..

 

2018

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000931851/article/nfls-top-10-offenses-saints-patriots-steelers-top-list

2019

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001030168/article/nfls-top-10-offenses-saints-colts-eagles-best-of-bunch

Total O 2018

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/netTotalYards

[gspdx]

23 hours ago, Cynjin said:

 

Well, they averaged 27.1 points a game last season, so 30 could be doable.

 

It could.  Certainly not out of the question.  The other part for me is just as important.  An offense that can stay on the field can really provide some relief for the defense.  

[JPFolks]

On 5/8/2019 at 9:51 AM, DaveA1102 said:

Chris Wesseling from NFL.com (and Around the NFL Podcast) has issued his annual "NFL's top 10 Offenses" list, with the Colts at #2, behind only the Saints.

 

Below is the link to the full article:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001030168/article/nfls-top-10-offenses-saints-colts-eagles-best-of-bunch

 

With below being a copy of the Colts section from the article:

 

2) Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback: A | Andrew Luck, Jacoby Brissett

Perhaps the league's biggest mystery entering the season, Luck shrugged off early questions about his arm strength, finishing second only to Mahomes with 39 touchdowns while collecting Comeback Player of the Year honors. Just four months from his 30th birthday, the former No. 1 overall draft pick is a different quarterback under play-caller supreme Frank Reich, showing a quicker release time, superior ball placement and a command of the pocket.

 

Backfield: B | Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins, Spencer Ware

From Week 7 through Indianapolis' victory over the Texans in the Wild Card Round, Marlon Mack led all running backs in rushing first downs (51) and ranked second in carries (197), rushing yards (933) and rushing touchdowns (10). Can he stay healthy, run between the tackles and match that level of production across 16 games and a postseason run? Receiving specialist Nyheim Hines caught 63 passes as a rookie, showcasing the ability to beat linebackers and safeties on third downs. Versatile former Chiefs back Spencer Ware was recently signed for insurance.

 

Receiving corps: B+ | T.Y. Hilton, Devin Funchess, Eric Ebron (TE), Jack Doyle (TE), Parris Campbell, Chester Rogers, Zach Pascal, Deon Cain

Luck is going to love throwing to big-bodied former Panthers wideout Devin Funchess and rookie playmaker Parris Campbell after leaning heavily on undrafted projects (Rogers, Pascal, Alie-Cox, Erik Swoope) and journeymen free agents (Ryan Grant, Dontrelle Inman) for significant portions of the 2018 season. Throw in a healthy version of Doyle, and this figures to be one of the most improved position groups in the division.

 

Offensive line: A- | Anthony Castonzo, Braden Smith, Quenton Nelson, Mark Glowinski, Ryan Kelly, Joe Haeg, Evan Boehm

Prior to Reich's arrival, the Colts couldn't run the ball or protect Luck. With rookie All-Pro Quenton Nelson setting a bone-jarring tone, both of those problems vanished by midseason. The offensive line went from long-running punchline to head of the class, paving the way for nine 100-yard rushing performances (including the postseason) while leading the NFL in stingiest sack rate (2.8%). The starting line returns intact for 2019.

First, thanks for posting Dave!  

 

My 2 cents: Do you or anyone else have access to their preseason annual rankings from LAST year? THAT would make the credibility of this list far more credible.  Did they perhaps talk about how they nailed it last year? Or is it like most lists and they toss out fluff like we all do but in their case they get paid to do it? 

 

Also, it is nice to see Pascal getting some love from people outside our board.  I felt like one of the only people pointing out his potential most of the offseason.  Most either never mentioned him at all, or just assumed he would be an automatic cut.  He may well be, but I think he flashed some positive stuff actually on the field in real games last year as opposed to our rookie and our injured reserve player.  

 

Thanks again for posting Dave.  

[MFT5]

On 5/8/2019 at 12:46 PM, Boiler_Colt said:

All the hype the Colts are getting is making me nervous. They have the talent on paper, but I'm pumping the brakes on my own expectations. The last time they were talked up this much was 2015 and that's when the wheels fell off. I think they can be tremendous but they have to stay healthy and prove it. They have targets on their backs now.

 

why would it make you nervous you’re a fan that can’t control anything enjoy the product

[DaveA1102]

7 hours ago, JPFolks said:

First, thanks for posting Dave!  

 

My 2 cents: Do you or anyone else have access to their preseason annual rankings from LAST year? THAT would make the credibility of this list far more credible.  Did they perhaps talk about how they nailed it last year? Or is it like most lists and they toss out fluff like we all do but in their case they get paid to do it? 

 

Also, it is nice to see Pascal getting some love from people outside our board.  I felt like one of the only people pointing out his potential most of the offseason.  Most either never mentioned him at all, or just assumed he would be an automatic cut.  He may well be, but I think he flashed some positive stuff actually on the field in real games last year as opposed to our rookie and our injured reserve player.  

 

Thanks again for posting Dave.  

 

@Irish YJ has done a nice job of looking at last year's predictions and eventual outcomes above. 

[JPFolks]

On 5/8/2019 at 8:22 PM, Irish YJ said:

So to compare how he graded teams last year at the same time of the year (link below),  their total O rank at season's end, and projected rank this year,,

 

2018 Projected Rank / Actual 2018 Total O Rank / 2019 Projected Rank

1. Saints / 8th / 1st again...

2. Pats / 5th / NR

3. Steelers / 4th / 9th

4. Falcons / 6th / 4th

5. Chargers / 11th / 8th

6. Packers / 12th / 10th

7. Eagles / 14th / 3rd

8. Rams / 2nd / 5th

9. Vikings / 20th / NR

10. Lions / 24th / NR

 

Missed the boat on KC who was 1st last year, and the Vikings and Lions.....

His confidence dropped this year on the Pats, Steelers. He's very high on the Eagles this year... meh... Colts are the biggest movers up, with the Browns advancing too. 

 

In short, grain of salt..

 

2018

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000931851/article/nfls-top-10-offenses-saints-patriots-steelers-top-list

2019

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001030168/article/nfls-top-10-offenses-saints-colts-eagles-best-of-bunch

Total O 2018

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/sort/netTotalYards

I think we posted at a similar time, me asking for a comparison but you had just offered one on the second page.  Same wavelength, but you did the leg work.  Thanks!

 

I have to be fair and say his predictions were within reason of reality for the most part.  No idea why he EVER thought Detroit would be top 10, but alas.. 

 

Lists are fun, but it is MORE fun to compare the results with the predictions.  I give this guy a passing grade, but not sure how much better it was than any reasonable person here would have made.  

 

Thanks again for posting this @Irish YJ

 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

On 5/8/2019 at 5:32 PM, Cynjin said:

 

Well, they averaged 27.1 points a game last season, so 30 could be doable.

 

I'll be downright disappointed if they don't, the stars are aligning. Adding Funchess, Campbell, and Doyle to the mix makes things mucho spicy señor.

[EastStreet]

7 hours ago, JPFolks said:

I think we posted at a similar time, me asking for a comparison but you had just offered one on the second page.  Same wavelength, but you did the leg work.  Thanks!

 

I have to be fair and say his predictions were within reason of reality for the most part.  No idea why he EVER thought Detroit would be top 10, but alas.. 

 

Lists are fun, but it is MORE fun to compare the results with the predictions.  I give this guy a passing grade, but not sure how much better it was than any reasonable person here would have made.  

 

Thanks again for posting this @Irish YJ

 

No problem JPF. 

Not sure I'm giving him a pass. He had several big whiffs. 

 

[JPFolks]

1 minute ago, Irish YJ said:

No problem JPF. 

Not sure I'm giving him a pass. He had several big whiffs. 

 

Keep in mind.. a D- is a passing grade. He'd pass Football Predictions 101: Entry to making money on as little work as possible.

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, JPFolks said:

Keep in mind.. a D- is a passing grade. He'd pass Football Predictions 101: Entry to making money on as little work as possible.

You are too kind my friend lol

[BOTT]

On 5/8/2019 at 12:46 PM, Boiler_Colt said:

All the hype the Colts are getting is making me nervous. They have the talent on paper, but I'm pumping the brakes on my own expectations. The last time they were talked up this much was 2015 and that's when the wheels fell off. I think they can be tremendous but they have to stay healthy and prove it. They have targets on their backs now.

I don't like the hype either, but the 2015 colts were always a mirage.

[LockeDown]

A successful team has to play with a chip on their shoulder as well as a target on their back.  Either way, A burden must be carried. 

 

Confucious ( not...I just made that up)

[conklincolt]

we may perhaps have the second best O in the league. Trouble is the patriots win over and over again (SB) and the Colts don't? 

[HarryTheCat]

12 hours ago, conklincolt said:

we may perhaps have the second best O in the league. Trouble is the patriots win over and over again (SB) and the Colts don't? 

I don't think the Pats will make the SB this year, and it may be over for them. Brady will be 42 when the season starts --  an age at which skills can decline rapidly -- and he may not be the nearly same guy we all love to hate. The hits you take at 42 are not the same as the hits you could laugh off at 22. A Gronk-less Pats offense with an aging Brady isn't nearly as scary as they were in times past. 

[shasta519]

A B+ for the receiving group? I don’t know about that.

 

Thats the same grade he gave the Rams...which is sort of laughable in its own right. The Rams have three Pro Bowl caliber WRs in Cooks, Woods and Kupp, Josh Reynolds and a pair of promising TEs. At this moment in time, the Colts probably have two guys that would get targets in that offense...Hilton and Ebron.

 

I love my Colts...but that grade seems high. Then again, looking at the list, he didn’t give anyone below a B. Maybe I just disagree with the Rams rating more than anything.

[CurBeatElite]

On 5/8/2019 at 8:08 AM, BlueCrew48 said:

I am confused how the best offensive line in class can be an A- though???  Curious what qualifies as an A or A+ in Wesselings opinion.

 

I would guess on a few things -- (1) we have good, but not great depth -- we didn't drop off much last year when Kelly and Castanzo were hurt, but IMO, they were pretty obvious losses and it changed the way our O played, (2) I like Glowinski, but I think he could definitely be upgraded (I would still love to see B. Smith move to RG and somebody emerge as an elite RT), and (3) I think Nelson and Kelly are two of the top in the game at their positions, Castonzo has been very reliable but I don't think he is considered 'elite', and then I think Smith played very well at RT and Glowinski was good at RG, but currently I don't think either of them are much more than 'average' or 'slightly above average' in terms of position ranks throughout the NFL (I think Smith could move higher if moved back to RG, but as a T, I think there are quite a few in the NFL who are better than him).

 

What I did really like last year was as a unit, the OL seemed to play (at least the back half of the season) greater than the sum of their parts.  I'll be interested to see how they react to new coaches.

 

On 5/8/2019 at 12:09 PM, Superman said:

In May...

 

I like where our offense is headed, but I have a lot of questions. I'm also concerned about regression and sophomore slumps affecting the OL.

 

A few of my major questions are:

 

(1) Will Doyle be back healthy and to his old form,

(2) What will we actually get from Funchess/Campbell/Cain,

(3) How is the OL going to react to a new OL Coach (I assume positive and love we brought Mudd back, and really don't worry about Big Q going backwards),

(4) Will TY be 100% (his ankle should have had plenty of time to heal in the off-season, but he's getting up towards 30 and I thought it showed clearly in the playoffs that he's not the same WR if his burners are slowed down),

(5) Will Hines and Wilkins make any steps forward,

(6) Will we stay healthy otherwise

?

 

I'm optimistic about our O, and think with some added weapons at WR, we'll see Reich and Sirianni add some new wrinkles for Andrew to work with.

 

Now, let's just hope we stay healthy.

[JPFolks]

@Superman mentioned his worry about regression of the o-line.  I am a bit more worried about a complete change to how they do things (as mentioned in a recent article) when last year they were already the best pass protectors in the league.  I realize they had issues with the previous o-line coach, but a completely new system means tossing away the good with the bad last year and introducing a new learning curve and even if it IS a superior system, there could easily be growing pains, especially in the critical first game of the season which could easily factor into playoff seedings/home field tie breakers at the end of the season.  I don't think we've ever had a more important opening game, the idea we'll be testing a new scheme with live fire for the first time against that defense of San Diego is a bit stomach churning.  If on top of it we have regression as Superman fears could be the case, look out.  I feel far more confident that Nelson is slump proof, but Smith may be human. The others are veterans so I don't expect it to be an issue for any of them.