A Theory About Trading for Future Picks

[BigQungus]

An interesting thought...

 

I wonder if Ballard purposefully trades with sucky teams for their future picks. For example, take this last trade with the Redskins. Depending on the value chart you use, it may be considered a bad trade. But when you factor that the Redskins are probably going to suck very badly, then this trade is a good trade. To a value chart, a 2020 second rounder is a 2020 second rounder. But it doesn't account for who we traded it with! Which makes me wonder, does Ballard purposefully trade with sucky teams cause he knows their future picks will probably be really high?

 

It's even applicable to last year's trade with the Jets, since we got a 2019 second rounder. At the time, that 2019 second rounder was just a 2019 second rounder. Nothing special. But since the Jets sucked last year, that pick turned out to be really valuable this year.

 

This may be a very common practice among all NFL teams, and it may be really obvious to some of you, but I want to know your thoughts since I have never really thought about this before

[indyagent17]

He is looking for the best deal obviously but I think he does consider the quality of the team as well. Good points

[pgt_rob]

Yep, I'm sure Ballard considers how well the trading team will be this coming season. It wouldn't be smart doing the same trade with the Patriots or Rams.

[ProblChld32]

33 minutes ago, BigQungus said:

An interesting thought...

 

I wonder if Ballard purposefully trades with sucky teams for their future picks. For example, take this last trade with the Redskins. Depending on the value chart you use, it may be considered a bad trade. But when you factor that the Redskins are probably going to suck very badly, then this trade is a good trade. To a value chart, a 2020 second rounder is a 2020 second rounder. But it doesn't account for who we traded it with! Which makes me wonder, does Ballard purposefully trade with sucky teams cause he knows their future picks will probably be really high?

 

It's even applicable to last year's trade with the Jets, since we got a 2019 second rounder. At the time, that 2019 second rounder was just a 2019 second rounder. Nothing special. But since the Jets sucked last year, that pick turned out to be really valuable this year.

 

This may be a very common practice among all NFL teams, and it may be really obvious to some of you, but I want to know your thoughts since I have never really thought about this before

Of course he probably takes that into consideration, he is a very smart man. He’s always looking for the best deal possible for this organization. 

[Matthew Gilbert]

I think a lot of people here are selling the Redskins a short. An injury ravaged season in 2018 still resulted in a 7-9 record. I assume Case Kennum is going to be their day one starter at QB and he's atleast serviceable. Their O-line is solid and their rushing attack could be very strong. The pass catchers are their biggest question mark on offense. Their defense looks like a top 10 unit. I'd be very surprised if they finished worst than 6-10.

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

19 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

I think a lot of people here are selling the Redskins a short. An injury ravaged season in 2018 still resulted in a 7-9 record. I assume Case Kennum is going to be their day one starter at QB and he's atleast serviceable. Their O-line is solid and their rushing attack could be very strong. The pass catchers are their biggest question mark on offense. Their defense looks like a top 10 unit. I'd be very surprised if they finished worst than 6-10.

 

Having just ran through the Skins schedule, I came up with 6-10. That was giving them the benefit of the doubt against teams like the Jets, Fins, and Bills out of conference. I don't see them beating the Cowboys or Eagles in division, and I could see them splitting with NYG. I could see anything from 4-12 to 8-8, honestly. That being said the 2nd rounder is at worst in the middle of the 2nd, which is still pretty good value. I think best case for them, we're picking in the mid-40s, and that's if they play out of their minds.

[throwing BBZ]

14 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

I think a lot of people here are selling the Redskins a short. An injury ravaged season in 2018 still resulted in a 7-9 record. I assume Case Kennum is going to be their day one starter at QB and he's atleast serviceable. Their O-line is solid and their rushing attack could be very strong. The pass catchers are their biggest question mark on offense. Their defense looks like a top 10 unit. I'd be very surprised if they finished worst than 6-10.

 

And IMO 6-10 sufficiently qualifies as a suck record, and CB would be pleased.

I do agree they should win no more than 8 and again CB will be satisfied having that pick. Remembering that in any given draft picks 20 - 40/50 have players that grade fairly equal.  

 Of course he would have gotten more compensation from a team that looks to win 10+ games.

[Matthew Gilbert]

2 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

And IMO 6-10 sufficiently qualifies as a suck record, and CB would be pleased.

 

7 minutes ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

Having just ran through the Skins schedule, I came up with 6-10. That was giving them the benefit of the doubt against teams like the Jets, Fins, and Bills out of conference. I don't see them beating the Cowboys or Eagles in division, and I could see them splitting with NYG.

First I guess I should note that I was fine with the trade down. Two second rounders for a late first is a win in my book. I'll agree that 6-10 is a crap record but I think that could be their floor. 

[CR91]

36 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

I think a lot of people here are selling the Redskins a short. An injury ravaged season in 2018 still resulted in a 7-9 record. I assume Case Kennum is going to be their day one starter at QB and he's atleast serviceable. Their O-line is solid and their rushing attack could be very strong. The pass catchers are their biggest question mark on offense. Their defense looks like a top 10 unit. I'd be very surprised if they finished worst than 6-10.

 

I dont think so. The team is gonna start with Keenum, then after some sub-par performences, in comes Haskins and it takes rookie QBs time to learn the game, factor in the lack of weapons and average defense, and you're getting a below average ball club. 4-6 wins is what I have them pegged at

[PrincetonTiger]

It is so hard to tell what will happen the next season

[Valpo2004]

I'm sure who he's trading with and their likely record next year is a consideration.

 

I also read somewhere that next year's draft is looking like it will be a really good one while this draft wasn't very top heavy.  So the trade down makes a lot of sense.  

[Yoshinator]

6 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

I'm sure who he's trading with and their likely record next year is a consideration.

 

I also read somewhere that next year's draft is looking like it will be a really good one while this draft wasn't very top heavy.  So the trade down makes a lot of sense.  

Walter Football gave us an A+ for that trade and said we got a 2nd rounder next year in a class that "could be legendary". Ballard must be stocking up for next year already.

[BOTT]

Common sense to take the team you are trading with into consideration.

[Boiler_Colt]

Just like the Jets last year it gives me a team to root against all year for the better draft pick.

[Steamboat_Shaun]

1 hour ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

I think a lot of people here are selling the Redskins a short. An injury ravaged season in 2018 still resulted in a 7-9 record. I assume Case Kennum is going to be their day one starter at QB and he's atleast serviceable. Their O-line is solid and their rushing attack could be very strong. The pass catchers are their biggest question mark on offense. Their defense looks like a top 10 unit. I'd be very surprised if they finished worst than 6-10.

 

Their starting RB is like 35, & their WRs are brutal. Aside from that, it's a mystery who their QB will be, & after signing Landon Collins they probably don't even have enough money to sign their draft picks. It's safe to assume that they'll be pretty bad, especially in that division.

[Matthew Gilbert]

1 hour ago, CR91 said:

 

I dont think so. The team is gonna start with Keenum, then after some sub-par performences, in comes Haskins and it takes rookie QBs time to learn the game, factor in the lack of weapons and average defense, and you're getting a below average ball club. 4-6 wins is what I have them pegged at

It's all a matter of opinion right now. Vegas currently has them at 6. 

[BigQungus]

3 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

It's all a matter of opinion right now. Vegas currently has them at 6. 

 

Yes, but 6 as the prediction, not as the floor. 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

I mean, if you have Team A calling offering a similar trade package as Team B, except the outlook for Team A is 10-12 wins and the outlook for Team B is, we'll call it more pessimistic, then you obviously take the trade from Team B. It's not really rocket science. These guys are playing expert-level chess, not checkers. 

[shasta519]

I doubt it...pretty sure he takes the best deal he can get. I think it being an NFC team makes it a bit easier as well. 

 

WAS was 7-9 last season...with a ton of injuries. They added in FA...added a 1st round QB prospect and some weapons...got a potential stud DE as well. I think forecasting their final record wouldn't really factor into the move...unless it's a team like NE, LAR or KC.

 

[Matthew Gilbert]

Just now, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

Their starting RB is like 35, & their WRs are brutal. Aside from that, it's a mystery who their QB will be, & after signing Landon Collins they probably don't even have enough money to sign their draft picks. It's safe to assume that they'll be pretty bad, especially in that division.

Case Keenum won't be asked to put this team on his back. The Skins are built to run the football. Their starting RB turns 22 in June (Derrius Guice) and like I said, their pass catchers are their biggest question mark. It's make or break for Doctson this year and Richardson isn't anything special. I really like McClaurin but he's a rookie. Jordan Reed is really good when healthy (I know, not very often) and Vernon Davis can still get it done. Don't forget that fact that Chris Thompson returns from injury this season and is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. 

[Matthew Gilbert]

19 minutes ago, BigQungus said:

 

Yes, but 6 as the prediction, not as the floor. 

Right, Vegas predicts 6 and my personal opinion is that 6 is the floor. I'd say they are a better team this year and they still pulled off 7 wins last year.

[shasta519]

20 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

Their starting RB is like 35, & their WRs are brutal. Aside from that, it's a mystery who their QB will be, & after signing Landon Collins they probably don't even have enough money to sign their draft picks. It's safe to assume that they'll be pretty bad, especially in that division.

 

That same team was 7-9 last year...with six of their games being started by Josh Johnson, Colt McCoy and Mark Sanchez. Haskins and Keenum is at least a net neutral...if not an improvement.

 

Guice will be back (a 2nd round pick from last year) and they added Bryce Love at RB.

 

At WR, they did draft McLaurin and Harmon...so that should at least add some talent to the WR group.

 

They also got a potential stud DE to add to a defense that was top 15 against the pass last year. And added Collins to help with the run defense.

 

I don't think they will be good per se...but I don't think they will be a bad team.

[Steamboat_Shaun]

3 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

Case Keenum won't be asked to put this team on his back. The Skins are built to run the football. Their starting RB turns 22 in June (Derrius Guice) and like I said, their pass catchers are their biggest question mark. It's make or break for Doctson this year and Richardson isn't anything special. I really like McClaurin but he's a rookie. Jordan Reed is really good when healthy (I know, not very often) and Vernon Davis can still get it done. Don't forget that fact that Chris Thompson returns from injury this season and is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. 

 

I honestly forgot about Guice, but I don't think he, or any of those other guys, sways their W-L total for the better. And Keenum legitimately may not play again, so that leaves them in a precarious spot as far as QB goes, because they may have to throw Haskins into the fray immediately as opposed to letting him develop behind a veteran.

[chad72]

The Redskins will at least win 7 games, IMO. They play the AFC East, probably 2 wins there and are familiar enough with the NFC East to win 2 inside the division, and add Lions, Panthers to the mix, we are talking at least 6. They will win 1 more that is not expected, so 7, IMO.

[Matthew Gilbert]

33 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

I honestly forgot about Guice, but I don't think he, or any of those other guys, sways their W-L total for the better. And Keenum legitimately may not play again, so that leaves them in a precarious spot as far as QB goes, because they may have to throw Haskins into the fray immediately as opposed to letting him develop behind a veteran.

Why won't Keenum play again?

[Lucky Colts Fan]

51 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

I doubt it...pretty sure he takes the best deal he can get.

 

Ok... so if the Pats and Dolphins are both offering you their 2nd round pick next year, which is the better deal?

[MB-ColtsFan]

7 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

Why won't Keenum play again?

I think he's talking about Alex Smith?

[shasta519]

6 minutes ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

Ok... so if the Pats and Dolphins are both offering you their 2nd round pick next year, which is the better deal?

 

I think NE is definitely one where forecasting would happen...plus the recent history. So set them aside.

 

There are other exceptions as well. If it was someone like KC and MIA...I think he would definitely take MIA.

 

I just don't think he is factoring in win forecasts, outside of a few exceptions. If two similar teams called and offered the same thing...he is probably leveraging a pick swap or an extra pick out of them. Someone will budge...or he will use it as an opportunity to set up a good rapport with one of the teams (man to be able to listen to those calls...that would be so cool). 

 

From what I read though, in this case it WAS that called Ballard and offered the future 2nd round pick. So I am just guessing that was the best offer. The trade market wasn't all that great this year. 

[MB-ColtsFan]

3 hours ago, BigQungus said:

An interesting thought...

 

I wonder if Ballard purposefully trades with sucky teams for their future picks. For example, take this last trade with the Redskins. Depending on the value chart you use, it may be considered a bad trade. But when you factor that the Redskins are probably going to suck very badly, then this trade is a good trade. To a value chart, a 2020 second rounder is a 2020 second rounder. But it doesn't account for who we traded it with! Which makes me wonder, does Ballard purposefully trade with sucky teams cause he knows their future picks will probably be really high?

 

It's even applicable to last year's trade with the Jets, since we got a 2019 second rounder. At the time, that 2019 second rounder was just a 2019 second rounder. Nothing special. But since the Jets sucked last year, that pick turned out to be really valuable this year.

 

This may be a very common practice among all NFL teams, and it may be really obvious to some of you, but I want to know your thoughts since I have never really thought about this before

I think it's part of the decision process, but that early in the draft it's not really all that useful.  If a team asked for our second in the 2019 draft for a 2018 pick and we gave it to them they may expect a mid-high draft pick in 2019 based on the 2018 pre-draft record.  Unfortunately for them Ballard got a ton of talent i the 2018 draft and we went from 4-12 to 10-6 and that other team got a late first rounder.

Drafts can dramatically change a team so thinking about the following year is only so helpful.

 

[Lucky Colts Fan]

26 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

I think NE is definitely one where forecasting would happen...plus the recent history. So set them aside.

 

There are other exceptions as well. If it was someone like KC and MIA...I think he would definitely take MIA.

 

You seem to be contradicting yourself.  How can you only forecast a good team without also forecasting who isn't a good team?

 

By putting a handful of teams into an exception category, you're automatically forecasting that the rest of the teams are better to trade with for one of their future picks.

 

The best deals for future picks are going to be from those forecasted to be the worst teams.

[BigQungus]

On 4/29/2019 at 1:53 PM, MB-ColtsFan said:

I think it's part of the decision process, but that early in the draft it's not really all that useful.  If a team asked for our second in the 2019 draft for a 2018 pick and we gave it to them they may expect a mid-high draft pick in 2019 based on the 2018 pre-draft record.  Unfortunately for them Ballard got a ton of talent i the 2018 draft and we went from 4-12 to 10-6 and that other team got a late first rounder.

Drafts can dramatically change a team so thinking about the following year is only so helpful.

 

 

Yes, but part of the game is predicting who will break out and who won't. The hypothetical team that trades with us last year would be a big loser. 

 

I brought it up now specifically because it's even more important this year. Washington's defense looks scary, but I just don't see them winning more than 6 games. Meanwhile, the 2020 class is said to be loaded. I'm not saying that a team should trade their first round pick for a bad team's first round pick of the following year EVERY year, but I think this is a factor that is even more important this year, and it helps us grasp and understand more fully why Ballard did this trade.

[NewColtsFan]

On 4/29/2019 at 6:58 AM, BigQungus said:

An interesting thought...

 

I wonder if Ballard purposefully trades with sucky teams for their future picks. For example, take this last trade with the Redskins. Depending on the value chart you use, it may be considered a bad trade. But when you factor that the Redskins are probably going to suck very badly, then this trade is a good trade. To a value chart, a 2020 second rounder is a 2020 second rounder. But it doesn't account for who we traded it with! Which makes me wonder, does Ballard purposefully trade with sucky teams cause he knows their future picks will probably be really high?

 

It's even applicable to last year's trade with the Jets, since we got a 2019 second rounder. At the time, that 2019 second rounder was just a 2019 second rounder. Nothing special. But since the Jets sucked last year, that pick turned out to be really valuable this year.

 

This may be a very common practice among all NFL teams, and it may be really obvious to some of you, but I want to know your thoughts since I have never really thought about this before

 

Yes, Ballard is trying to target weak or sucky teams if and when he can.

 

Last year the Football Gods were kind to us.    We wanted to trade back just a little.   And we lucked out that there was a team that also wanted to trade up just a little.    We were fortunate.   But we also got even luckier.  The Jets had multiple second round picks last year and were willing to trade two of them to us, PLUS they’d be willing to trade an additional 2019 second pick.   It wasn’t hard to see that the Jets pick this year was going to be high and pick 34 was icing on the cake on that trade.   

 

Now we traded back with Washington to get a mid-round pick this year.  But it’s not hard to see that next year Washington looks to be a sub-500 next season.   QB Alex Smith is likely out all season.  Case Keenum may start until the bye week and then the Skins will likely give their rookie Dwayne Haskins get some rookie season experience.   So Washington will likely have a very poor season.   It’s not a coincidence this trade worked out this way.   A second round pick is nice.   But a possible HIGH-second round pick is a real bonus.   Ballard is a razor sharp guy.  

 

The Colts are going to have extra high picks in three straight drafts...  18, 19, and 20.   Barring another injury to Luck, we're going to be very good for a long time. 

 

Better days ahead!      

[crazycolt1]

If the Skins can beat the Cowboys two times and win no more it would be great.

[MikeCurtis]

The REAL theory (LOGIC) here is trading with someone who has a dire, immediate need

 

If you are starving..... you will pay $20 for a loaf of bread.......  If you are satisfied........$1.20

 

 

If you are looking for a value....... find the hungry teams

 

Tell them, they dont have to pay it all immediately........

they can pay some of it NEXT YEAR.

 

We have built a good team. We now have depth in many positions.

 

We are not a team that is starving for talent...

 

I can see this type of trade happening often in our future.......

[BigQungus]

33 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

The REAL theory (LOGIC) here is trading with someone who has a dire, immediate need

 

If you are starving..... you will pay $20 for a loaf of bread.......  If you are satisfied........$1.20

 

 

If you are looking for a value....... find the hungry teams

 

Tell them, they dont have to pay it all immediately........

they can pay some of it NEXT YEAR.

 

We have built a good team. We now have depth in many positions.

 

We are not a team that is starving for talent...

 

I can see this type of trade happening often in our future.......

 

Well you don't have to find the teams who have a dire, immediate need

 

They'll find you

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

On the stampede blue podcast Stephens holder mentioned that the future pick thing is also insurance in case they can’t sign a FA. He seemed to have that verified with sources.