Colts trade out of first round

[DougDew]

5 hours ago, Superman said:

 

? 

 

I get what you're saying about the probability of that future pick and its value. But if some team wants #34 for a future pick, it would cost them a first. To get a third rounder for a future pick, that future pick would need to be a second. This is established in draft/trade history. And that's because future picks get devalued by one round, and there's precedent for this. Part of the reason is you don't know where that future pick will land. It could be #33, it could be #64, and those are very different values. 

 

Now as for how an individual or team values present picks versus future picks, that will vary and is probably situational more than anything. The raw value of a future second is definitely higher than the value of a present third, but the value of having another player on your roster this season is worthy of consideration also. 

 

I'm personally not thrilled with the value on this trade. We went back 20 spots for a future second. I would have liked another pick to even it out a bit, maybe a 5th. 

 

But I'm fine with it. I wanted a trade. Kind of talked myself into Sweat or Tillery, but I've never been over the moon about either guy. Having #34 puts us in range for basically anyone we want, so it's not like we're waiting until #46 to make our first pick. Unless Ballard trades again...

My view as well.  Its not the trade out, or picking up next year's second over this year's third that's the issue. Its the idea we should have gotten a little more for either.

 

And I didn't like Sweat at all or Tillery that much.  But WASH appears to have wanted Sweat and probably feels he is better than #26 and fell.  All the more reason why I think we were in a position to get more compensation.

[HectorRoberts]

I really hope Ballard was right about all this, and all of these whiner keyboard gms can eat crow again like last year. I’m seeing a lot of username pop up this year that we’re saying Leonard, Turay, smith and Lewis were all big time reaches. I think it’s best if some of these fellers shut up before they look as stupid as they last year.

[BProland85]

8 hours ago, dodsworth said:

All of the 8 he had his eye on were probably gone.

 

Yeah I was not happy when the Titans took Simmons at DT. Really thought he’d be there at 26.

[masterlock]

8 hours ago, Maniac said:

Montez Sweat was there...

I was thinking the same thing. If there's one thing the Colts need, it's pass rush. And here you have a player whose pre-draft measurables were off the charts, who shined at the Senior Bowl, who put up good stats in the regular college football season, and who fits the mold to-a-tee of what you're looking for in a 4-3 defensive end, and yet you pass on him?

 

There's a point at which 'more' (picks) isn't always better. Quality matters too. I understand it's a crap shoot when it comes to drafting any player, even high first-rounders. But the same is true of second-rounders. So all things equal, why not take a chance on a defensive end who's arguably the very embodiment of what you're looking for in a 4-3 defense predicated on speed and athleticism?

[John Waylon]

16 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Agreed.  However, you put yourself in a position of having to value that future pick when you decide to accept it as compensation.

 

Well of course. You become 100% obligated to put an increased value on it. But sitting here today there’s no way to say that it does provide the kind of value for what we have up definitively the way people touting draft charts claim. 

 

Personally I wanted to see us take Tillery there. Tom Telesco drafting him two picks later makes me feel even stronger in that. 

 

Sweat was just too much of a gamble IMO.

[krunk]

4 minutes ago, masterlock said:

I was thinking the same thing. If there's one thing the Colts need, it's pass rush. And here you have a player whose pre-draft measurables were off the charts, who shined at the Senior Bowl, who put up good stats in the regular college football season, and who fits the mold to-a-tee of what you're looking for in a 4-3 defensive end, and yet you pass on him?

 

There's a point at which 'more' (picks) isn't always better. Quality matters first and foremost. I understand it's a crap shoot when it comes to drafting any player, even high first-rounders. But the same is true of second-rounders. So all things equal, why not take a chance on a defensive end who is the very embodiment of what you're looking for in a 4-3 defense predicated on speed and athleticism?

The commentators during the draft were saying there are some other concerns with Sweat outside of Medical but they never would say what those concerns were.

[CamMo]

7 hours ago, DougDew said:

A pick this year is always worth more than a pick next year.  So the trade is really the equivalent of picking up a third this year for moving down from 26 to 46. 

 

Pick 26 is worth 700 points and pick 46 is worth 440 points.  So we need 260 points to break even.  260 points is pick 66 this year.

 

So instead of getting pick 66 this year (second pick of the third round), we'll probably get around a mid second round pick next year.

 

Use your judgment to determine if its a good trade.

 

If we didn’t have pick 34, it doesn’t look good at all, imo. But we do have pick 34 so I’m cool with it. 

[dodsworth]

1 hour ago, JPFolks said:

What he actually said was "several of them are still on the board" so he'll get one with #34 and seems happy to pass on the "others" that would have still been there by using the pick.  Seems ill logical, but I think it is something else entirely which he also hinted at without saying directly. 

 

I think he know already that in a four year's we'll be giving max positional money to Leonard, and one year later we'll be giving it to Nelson.  (If they don't resign him early).  That's a minimum of 2 massive resigns.  He also expects we'll have to resign Luck AGAIN to God only knows how much money by that part (maybe 50 million a year by the end of Luck's deal? Nothing would surprise me).  And he also knows at least several of his other picks will be ready to re-up so he is financially making the choice to trade down as much as the exchange rate mentioned by others.   They will likely have a top 12 2nd round pick, maybe better, so it's all good.  The money will be further spread out.  This guy is 4-5 steps ahead of anything we're mulling over. 

 

I see the WR's people wanted are still available.. (even some no one expected).  Not as sure about the LB/DTs but they were mostly gone before we drafted.  Tillery, Sweat and the Safety (can't think of his name) that went after our pick are all people suggested for us in the 1st/early 2nd so he clearly felt there were better or equal talents that will cost less than those 3.  We'll see tomorrow and Saturday.  And we'll see which of those 8 he picked we're getting soon enough. 

Good points, but I'm not totally sure Ballard is a max contract type

of GM. It will be interesting if he will cough up top cheddar for our

homegrown elite talent or expect them to sign for less or let them 

walk? 

 

Who knows what our Lucky Charms Leprechaun is really thinking

at this point.

[Pacergeek]

I'm thinking Tytus Howard was Ballard's guy at 26. Once Houston picked him, Ballard wanted out

[coltsva]

Washington will finish last in the league, giving the Colts back to back picks at 32nd and 33rd. I like it!

[John Waylon]

21 minutes ago, CamMo said:

 

If we didn’t have pick 34, it doesn’t look good at all, imo. But we do have pick 34 so I’m cool with it. 

 

34 was the one I was expecting to be traded. And I still do. I think Ballard will try to turn 34 into a 1st next year. 

[coltsfeva]

When I looked back at Ballard’s previous 2nd rounders, it eased my mind a bit. 

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/draft.htm

[tweezy32]

 I'd honestly love to trade our 34 pick and try to get a 1st rounder next year.  Only to a team that I think would do bad obviously like the dolphins or some other crap team

[USAFHoosier]

8 hours ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

Gimme CGJ with #34 and anybody after that and I'll be even more happy with the trade than I am now. 

Honestly, there's plenty of other ways it could play out and I'll be ecstatic.

Chauncey would be my target. 

[CamMo]

15 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

 

34 was the one I was expecting to be traded. And I still do. I think Ballard will try to turn 34 into a 1st next year. 

 

That would be interesting. I don’t hate that either. I’d always take a first.

[TigerColt]

8 hours ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

Nice snapshot.
 

The video of Ballard's interview is on Facebook as well.

 

If you notice the board in the background it appears that there are a lot of players they rank high are still on their board

 

Joseph

[Old Colt]

9 hours ago, Dustin said:

 

Trade chart is outdated by about 10 years now. Also a future 2nd is valued as a 3rd rounder not a 2nd

Plus you lose the possible 5th year option of the rookie contract.  It is the team option and only available to the players taken in the 1st round.  We'll see, but this looks like a bad deal.  

[Mitch Connors]

24 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

 

34 was the one I was expecting to be traded. And I still do. I think Ballard will try to turn 34 into a 1st next year. 

 

Ill be very disappointed if we trade 34. Itd hard for me to accept last nights trade when I'm told the 2nd round talent is ridiculously good only to trade away that ridiculously good 2nd round talent. 

 

We'd essentially swap this years 1st round pick for a different 1st round pick next year. That still equals 2 1st round picks in 2 years if we trade tonight or if we don't. That's not a win. That's losing a year of play from a difference maker. 

 

Sure we gather another 2nd round pick next year but that draft isnt loaded in the 2nd round like this one (so Im told). Thats not a win either.

[Creekside]

8 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I LOVED the trade down. Was praying Ballard got future picks since they are worth more next year and we can "stack" drafts. That's how you sustain winning.

 

In my mind he turned one good player into two good players.

 

It's just that simple.

[Jackie Daytona]

9 hours ago, Maniac said:

Montez Sweat was there...

I heard some buzz on draft shows that Sweat was still available due to teams having other concerns.... he didn't really do well in interviews apparently....

[Myles]

46 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

 

34 was the one I was expecting to be traded. And I still do. I think Ballard will try to turn 34 into a 1st next year. 

I don't think there is any chance of him being able to do that.

[Old Colt]

9 hours ago, Patrick Miller said:

We are going to tear up the second day! I love it!

We'll see.....  still looks like Colts didn't get enough...

[ColtJax]

2 minutes ago, Myles said:

I don't think there is any chance of him being able to do that.

 

Sure there is, but we'd have to give up our 2ND rounder to do that. This happens a lot, that's how the Packers got their second 1st round pick this year. But we're not rebuilding so the 34th pick is too valuable for us this year..

[Pacergeek]

I'm thinking the target was Hollywood at 26. Once Baltimore sniped him, Ballard figures he can get Paris Campbell at 34. Colts will get a play maker soon!!

[Peterk2011]

2 hours ago, icf said:

It seems he moved back way to far, to only pick up a 2nd rd pick next year that "could be" 33 or it could be in the 60s....but most likely  somewhere in between.

 

If he had gotten next years #1 or an extra #3/#4 this year I'd been more of a fan....or if he had only moved down 5-10 spots this year to get the 2nd I'd be more of a fan of the trade.

 

I loved the trade from 3 to 6 last year....but on the surface it almost seems like he made a trade just for the sake of making one.  We won't know for at least a year if this was a good, bad or so-so trade.....

 

Last year's trade was a fleece. But that was a different story. Top picks are in "madness territory". QB trades are unique because QB needy teams are usually willing to give up way more than the pick worths. QB's are soo important in this game, that it overrules any value chart.

 

However, outside the "madness territory" (outside the top 3-4-5-6 picks) deals  tend to cool down. As we go lower, trade tend to very quickly align to the trade value chart, becoming mostly "fair", 50-50 deals. The Pittsburgh trade (they traded up for the #10 with Denver) are already a "cooled down" deal, if you do your math, both sides ended up with approx. the same value on both sides of the deal. The same can be said about the Colts deal. It costed approx. the same for both sides.

 

Of course, because there were 2020 picks involved, you don't know the exact values yet, that's why future picks worth a little less than worst case scenario (e.g. a future 2nd worth a little less than a 2/32). Which probably won't happen, so ultimately, the Broncos and Colts will end up winning the deal on the numbers, but that's the nature of dealing future picks. All in all, both trades were "fair". No fleece, no under or overpayment.

 

Sweat obviously didn't worth the #26 according for Ballard, otherwise he would've picked him. The Redskins had different grade on him. The fact that Ballard allowed them to pick him indicates, that Ballard thinks that he'll get someone else with the #46 th pick who has better value ther than Sweat was at #26. I agree with him, because watchning my own board at #26, only Tillery and Sweat were available who had 1st round grades. Sweat's health situation concerned me too, and Tillery is still available. So we haven't lost anyone we could've picked while acquired an extra 2nd rounder for next year.

 

I would probably grab Tillery with the #34 tonight. But if Ballard won't, I'll trust his judgement.

[USAFHoosier]

1 hour ago, masterlock said:

I was thinking the same thing. If there's one thing the Colts need, it's pass rush. And here you have a player whose pre-draft measurables were off the charts, who shined at the Senior Bowl, who put up good stats in the regular college football season, and who fits the mold to-a-tee of what you're looking for in a 4-3 defensive end, and yet you pass on him?

 

There's a point at which 'more' (picks) isn't always better. Quality matters too. I understand it's a crap shoot when it comes to drafting any player, even high first-rounders. But the same is true of second-rounders. So all things equal, why not take a chance on a defensive end who's arguably the very embodiment of what you're looking for in a 4-3 defense predicated on speed and athleticism?

Supposedly Mortenson was told by A&M coaches that you can’t even yell at Sweat. Now I’m not for berating a guy but if a player can’t handle getting yelled and check his emotions then I want nothing to do with him. Was a tweet from Greg Doyle last night for what it’s worth. 

[PeterBowman]

2 minutes ago, Peterk2011 said:

 

Last year's trade was a fleece. But that was a different story. Top picks are in "madness territory". QB trades are unique because QB needy teams are usually willing to give up way more than the pick worths. QB's are soo important in this game, that it overrules any value charts.

 

However, outside the "madness territory" (outside the top 3-4-5-6 picks) deals  tend to cool down. As we go lower, trade tend to very quickly align to the trade value chart, becoming mostly "fair", 50-50 deals. The Pittsburgh trade (they traded up for the #10 with Denver) are already a "cooled down" deal, if you do your math, both sides ended up with approx. the same value on both sides of the deal. The same can be said about the Colts deal. It costed approx. the same for both sides.

 

Of course, because there were 2020 picks involved, you don't know the exact values yet, that's why future picks worth a little less than worst case scenario (e.g. a future 2nd worth a little less than a 2/32). Which probably won't happen, so ultimately, the Broncos and Colts will end up winning the deal on the numbers, but that's the nature of dealing future picks. All in all, both trades were "fair". No fleece, no under or overpayment.

 

Sweat obviously didn't worth the #26 according for Ballard, otherwise he would've picked him. The Redskins had different grade on him. The fact that Ballard allowed them to pick him indicates, that Ballard thinks that he'll get someone else with the #46 th pick who has better value ther than Sweat was at #26. I agree with him, because watchning my own board at #26, only Tillery and Sweat were available who had 1st round grades. Sweat's health situation concerned me too, and Tillery is still available. So we haven't lost anyone we could've picked while acquired an extra 2nd rounder for next year.

 

I would probably grab Tillery with the #34 tonight. But if Ballard won't, I'll trust his judgement.

You're right he won't take Tillery......That's because San Diego took him last night. 

[Peterk2011]

Just now, PeterBowman said:

You're right he won't take Tillery......That's because San Diego took him last night. 

 

LOL, my bad.  Forgive me, I live in Europe, and it was around 5.30am in the morning, so I barely was awake by then.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I love the keyboard warriors. Think about this. What if Ballard had Sweat graded the same as say Chase Winovich.  Now he can still get the guy and has the extra pick. Last night they were talking about how sweat had some character concerns.

[John Waylon]

13 minutes ago, Myles said:

I don't think there is any chance of him being able to do that.

 

All it takes is one Jerry or Gruden to feel froggy and jump. With the emphasized strength of this draft being the second round it makes sense for someone to jump up and hope they can use it to propel them to a 25th or better first round pick next year. 

[pgt_rob]

Something tells me Ballard ships away #34 for an extra 2nd round pick. 4 Possible picks in the 2nd round would be nice. I'm not all that hype about any of the talent left in this years draft. The talent in this years draft is very underwhelming.

[Fluke_33]

I hope ballard trades our 7th for a first rounder 7 years from now; trades our 6th for a first rounder 6 years from now; trades our 5th for a first rounder 5 years from now...  you get the picture.

 

The second next year was great value!

[PeterBowman]

24 minutes ago, Peterk2011 said:

 

LOL, my bad.  Forgive me, I live in Europe, and it was around 5.30am in the morning, so I barely was awake by then.

hahahahaha it's all good.... i'm barely awake right now after staying up watching the first round lol. 

[GwinnettColt]

The only thing I'm really mad about is that I stayed up so late and didn't get to see the Colts pick a player.  I think it's a good move.  The three picks in the second round will be nice.

 

 

[RollerColt]

Today's going to be interesting. I loved Ballard's 2nd round choices last year, so I'm fine with the choices made last night. 

[Myles]

4 minutes ago, GwinnettColt said:

The only thing I'm really mad about is that I stayed up so late and didn't get to see the Colts pick a player.  I think it's a good move.  The three picks in the second round will be nice.

 

 

I was drinking a bit and fell asleep before it got to the Colts.   Got up this morning and fast forwarded through the DVR to get to the Colts pick.   Damn!!

[Matthew Gilbert]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

But WASH appears to have wanted Sweat and probably feels he is better than #26 and fell.  All the more reason why I think we were in a position to get more compensation.

Ballard wanted to move down and it's likely the best offer he got. 

[chad72]

Dolphins trade current 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks this year for pick No.34 and select Drew Lock (hypothetical). We may not be done yet, folks!!!  

[GwinnettColt]

1 minute ago, chad72 said:

Dolphins trade current 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks this year for pick No.34 and select Drew Lock. We may not be done yet, folks!!!  

That would be some Round 2 draft drama. 

 

 

[chad72]

5 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

Ballard wanted to move down and it's likely the best offer he got. 

 

I think he wanted Savage or Andre Dillard because of the value. Once the Packers moved up, he felt the need to move back. 

 

He may have bargained for an extra 4th for all we know but the Redskins know our needs too, and probably did a bit of hard balling with us, unlike the Jets who got fleeced last year. 

 

1 minute ago, GwinnettColt said:

That would be some Round 2 draft drama. 

 

Yeah, I looked up the values - even if it is a 2nd and 3rd from the Dolphins, we would get good value.