Colts trade out of first round

[DerekDiggler 262]

13 minutes ago, Flash7 said:

That’s a little to what I was alluding to. If their board cannot distinguish between players at picks #15 through 70, then I have a problem with their board.

 

We know that a few years from now, there will be a wide array of players within that range.

 

Let’s hope Ballard selects the good ones.

He didn't say they couldn't distinguish between players.  He said they were are graded very closely.   BIG DIFFERENCE 

 

 

[Coltsman1788 3,394]

1 minute ago, Chloe6124 said:

Well if five of the eight are still there it was a good trade since we pick at 34.

I mean who can really take much issue with Ballard at this point?  I fully trust that he has a plan and will work it to our benefit.  We are in very good hands.

 

That said...I just am not buying what he said about some of his initial 8 still being there.    I think he values a lot of the talent in the second round and based on who was available when #26 came around, he felt more comfortable maximizing his value in the second rather than spending a 1st on a player (not in his initial 8) that he didn’t think was really worth a first round grade.  Hence the trade back.  

[Coltsman1788 3,394]

21 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

At his pressser, Ballard was asked about his 8 targeted players.   Said several were still on the board which is one of the reasons he felt he could do the deal. 

 

When next years Washington pick is a very high 2nd round pick, the value of the deal will look much better than it does to some tonight. 

 

Yeah...I hope so.  I’m not upset we traded back.  Just was hoping we got a bit more than we did.  

[Flash7 2,469]

1 minute ago, DerekDiggler said:

He didn't say they couldn't distinguish between players.  He said they were are graded very closely.   BIG DIFFERENCE 

 

 

The likelihood of players selected #15 through #70 grading out closely is highly unlikely.

 

It’s likely that 5 years from now we will be able to identify busts, average players, pro bowlers and all pros from within that range from this year’s draft.

 

If Ballad has them all graded similarly, it’s still the same problem.

[SLILLINGTON10 395]

Remember when Darius Leonard was picked in the SECOND round last year? Didn't a bunch of people freak out when he was drafted? Maybe CB knows how to draft well in the second. If we get 3 guys that are Smith and Leonard types, we are all going to be pretty happy I imagine. 

[Peterk2011 647]

56 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

At his ore-draft presser, Ballard said picks from roughly 15-70 (55 picks) are roughly the same.  

So he drops 20 spots and gets what is likely to be a high R2 pick next year in the process.   Seems like a shrewd move. 

 

Yep, no argument there, I agree. I was just trying to clarify what that "bracket of 8" could mean, because reading someone's post above, my impression was that the post (or the tweet it cited) indicated that those were (mostly?) round 1 graded players. And I think this was not the case. But maybe I took that post/tweet the wrong way, so whatever, I'm happy where we are at with our 3 second rounders and the one extra 2020 second rounder.

[WoolMagnet 4,041]

2 hours ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

You're a lad.

You two are a heck of alot more entertaining then tonights draft was.

Thanks for the laughs "lads".  Haha

 

[DerekDiggler 262]

26 minutes ago, Flash7 said:

The likelihood of players selected #15 through #70 grading out closely is highly unlikely.

 

It’s likely that 5 years from now we will be able to identify busts, average players, pro bowlers and all pros from within that range from this year’s draft.

 

If Ballad has them all graded similarly, it’s still the same problem.

Check out this site for example. You can pick a position and see their grades.  May not be Ballards, but you can see there are a lot of remaining players graded fairly close.   

 

Ballard may have 3-4 graded close at 34 then again at 59 and then again at 89 etc.   So what he is saying is not really a problme

 

 

EDIT. Sorry forgot the link

 

https://www.draftace.com/2019-top-100/

[WoolMagnet 4,041]

11 minutes ago, SLILLINGTON10 said:

Remember when Darius Leonard was picked in the SECOND round last year? Didn't a bunch of people freak out when he was drafted? Maybe CB knows how to draft well in the second. If we get 3 guys that are Smith and Leonard types, we are all going to be pretty happy I imagine. 

More picks increases the odds of finding guys that fit and pan out.  At least thats what i keep telling myself.

[stitches 6,155]

1 minute ago, WoolMagnet said:

More picks increases the odds of finding guys that fit and pan out.  At least thats what i keep telling myself.

If it helps this strategy is analytically sound. THe bust rates are relatively similar at 26 and at 46 and you get 2 bites at the apple for the price of one. 

[Peterk2011 647]

4 minutes ago, Flash7 said:

The likelihood of players selected #15 through #70 grading out closely is highly unlikely.

 

According to most experts, this is the case. There were 15 to 20 players in this draft with first round grades, then 50-60 players, who were graded very closely to each other. In Ballard's own words, there's no grading difference amongst these 50-60 players, it's everyone's taste who they like or dislike. Every draft class is different, this year's draft class happen to be like this.

[James 1,242]

3 hours ago, Wyldhorsefan said:

Relax no, except for Houston, I'm not impressed.

 

You being impressed is the last thing on Ballard’s mind. You’re irrelevant in that aspect.

[Stephen 1,915]

I figured  Ballard  would pull this stunt, which is why I went to see Endgame instead of watching the draft

[tweezy32 412]

37 minutes ago, Stephen said:

I figured  Ballard  would pull this stunt, which is why I went to see Endgame instead of watching the draft

Great decision..  Hope it was great..  I'll be going to see that tuesday for $5 tuesday here!! No spoilers lol

[tweezy32 412]

I really think montez sweat will be a beat in the NFL.  I hope he is not now since colts passed on him but I really think he was going to be a stud and wished we would have gotten him.  Hood I'm wrong and draft some other studs tho.  I'd love to be wrong! 

[superrep1967 982]

4 hours ago, Maniac said:

Montez Sweat was there...

Yeah, if Sweat has a great career it's going haunt Ballard and us for many years to come. 

[superrep1967 982]

22 minutes ago, tweezy32 said:

I really think montez sweat will be a beat in the NFL.  I hope he is not now since colts passed on him but I really think he was going to be a stud and wished we would have gotten him.  Hood I'm wrong and draft some other studs tho.  I'd love to be wrong! 

Yeah, but the knock on him is his heart condition. I think Ballard must not felt comfortable with it. 

[superrep1967 982]

 

 

 

1

1 hour ago, Peterk2011 said:

 

According to most experts, this is the case. There were 15 to 20 players in this draft with first round grades, then 50-60 players, who were graded very closely to each other. In Ballard's own words, there's no grading difference amongst these 50-60 players, it's everyone's taste who they like or dislike. Every draft class is different, this year's draft class happen to be like this.

Ballard said that picks 20 to 70 are all very close to each other which is why he made this trade. 

[rayski 79]

I understand why some feel disappointed, but this is what Ballard excels at. Talent evaluation. I don't think I fancied anyone at #26 who we couldn't get #34. Let's judge this move after Day 2.

[VaAllDay757 586]

4 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I look for a DT.  I still say the pick is Jones from Ohio State 

Yeah I could see this happening but later in the 2nd round if he's available

[Jared Cisneros 4,367]

I think we go Risner or AJ Brown at 34 tomorrow. Might get both in the 2nd. Justin Layne, Ben Banogu, and Charles Ominehu are other 2nd round possibilities I like for us.

[Mr. Irrelevant 1,038]

We obviously can't fully judge this trade before we know where Redskins end up in the upcoming season, but I would assume that Cowboys and Eagles win the division, so no play-offs for Redskins. They could end at pick 15 or worse, which would make it a decent trade for us.

[Mr. Irrelevant 1,038]

one more thing: hopefully we will be picking close to last for years to come, and that makes it very important to try and get an extra pick in the second round as often as possible. Big difference between having just two late picks in first and second and sneaking an additional mid second round pick in. 3 instead of just 2 is important because none of those is going to be sure starters. There will be gambling involved that late.  

[Indyfan4life 1,247]

5 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

I hope not.  I don’t get the hype around him.  Honestly, if they go WR the guy I hope they get is A.J. Brown.  He reminds me some of Reggie and I think that’s what the Colts need to go with TY.  

I’m not on the DK train at all. I just know a lot of people seemed to want him, so I figured the chatter would start eventually. 

[Rally5 624]

7 hours ago, ColtsLegacy said:

Drop 20 spots back for next year's 2nd rounder? Lmao, that's not good.

 

Seems like a panic move after everyone they like went off the board.

Seems like it's just the opposite, many of the guys they want are still available.  Round two has a lot of talent available.  This will be fun!

[Pacergeek 403]

Great trade. I view second round picks as starters. Colts picked up another starter for 2020.

[Devildog 519]

7 hours ago, Mr_486lo said:

Highly disappointed. Sweat was right there

 

Don't Sweat it, you'll be fine. 

[stitches 6,155]

1 hour ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I think we go Risner or AJ Brown at 34 tomorrow. Might get both in the 2nd. Justin Layne, Ben Banogu, and Charles Ominehu are other 2nd round possibilities I like for us.

Trysten Hill or Khalen Saunders and Chase Winovich IMO are some other DLine options.

[Rally5 624]

4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Are you under the impression that NFL teams have no idea what next year’s draft looks like?   Next year’s draft is already being called loaded at a number of key positions including WR and RB among others.

 

Between Ballard and Dodds and Hogan, this front office knows what it is doing.   They have planned for every possibility including a trade down. 

 

Plus, with the pick belonging to Washington, there’s a good chance the pick will be high in the 2nd round.  

That's such a good point, although we can't know of course there's a good chance that Washington pick a high two next year if the rookie starts.  Plus, I'm sure a few of Ballards eight are still available.   

[JPFolks 878]

7 hours ago, dodsworth said:

All of the 8 he had his eye on were probably gone.

What he actually said was "several of them are still on the board" so he'll get one with #34 and seems happy to pass on the "others" that would have still been there by using the pick.  Seems ill logical, but I think it is something else entirely which he also hinted at without saying directly. 

 

I think he know already that in a four year's we'll be giving max positional money to Leonard, and one year later we'll be giving it to Nelson.  (If they don't resign him early).  That's a minimum of 2 massive resigns.  He also expects we'll have to resign Luck AGAIN to God only knows how much money by that part (maybe 50 million a year by the end of Luck's deal? Nothing would surprise me).  And he also knows at least several of his other picks will be ready to re-up so he is financially making the choice to trade down as much as the exchange rate mentioned by others.   They will likely have a top 12 2nd round pick, maybe better, so it's all good.  The money will be further spread out.  This guy is 4-5 steps ahead of anything we're mulling over. 

 

I see the WR's people wanted are still available.. (even some no one expected).  Not as sure about the LB/DTs but they were mostly gone before we drafted.  Tillery, Sweat and the Safety (can't think of his name) that went after our pick are all people suggested for us in the 1st/early 2nd so he clearly felt there were better or equal talents that will cost less than those 3.  We'll see tomorrow and Saturday.  And we'll see which of those 8 he picked we're getting soon enough. 

[Rally5 624]

1 minute ago, JPFolks said:

What he actually said was "several of them are still on the board" so he'll get one with #34 and seems happy to pass on the "others" that would have still been there by using the pick.  Seems ill logical, but I think it is something else entirely which he also hinted at without saying directly. 

 

I think he know already that in a four year's we'll be giving max positional money to Leonard, and one year later we'll be giving it to Nelson.  (If they don't resign him early).  That's a minimum of 2 massive resigns.  He also expects we'll have to resign Luck AGAIN to God only knows how much money by that part (maybe 50 million a year by the end of Luck's deal? Nothing would surprise me).  And he also knows at least several of his other picks will be ready to re-up so he is financially making the choice to trade down as much as the exchange rate mentioned by others.   They will likely have a top 12 2nd round pick, maybe better, so it's all good.  The money will be further spread out.  This guy is 4-5 steps ahead of anything we're mulling over. 

 

I see the WR's people wanted are still available.. (even some no one expected).  Not as sure about the LB/DTs but they were mostly gone before we drafted.  Tillery, Sweat and the Safety (can't think of his name) that went after our pick are all people suggested for us in the 1st/early 2nd so he clearly felt there were better or equal talents that will cost less than those 3.  We'll see tomorrow and Saturday.  And we'll see which of those 8 he picked we're getting soon enough. 

Yep!

[icf 132]

Didn't read all 8 pages, but not a fan of the trade.

 

It seems he moved back way to far, to only pick up a 2nd rd pick next year that "could be" 33 or it could be in the 60s....but most likely  somewhere in between.

 

If he had gotten next years #1 or an extra #3/#4 this year I'd been more of a fan....or if he had only moved down 5-10 spots this year to get the 2nd I'd be more of a fan of the trade.

 

I loved the trade from 3 to 6 last year....but on the surface it almost seems like he made a trade just for the sake of making one.  We won't know for at least a year if this was a good, bad or so-so trade.....

 

 

[John Waylon 3,317]

4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Are you under the impression that NFL teams have no idea what next year’s draft looks like?   Next year’s draft is already being called loaded at a number of key positions including WR and RB among others.

 

Between Ballard and Dodds and Hogan, this front office knows what it is doing.   They have planned for every possibility including a trade down. 

 

Plus, with the pick belonging to Washington, there’s a good chance the pick will be high in the 2nd round.  

 

And how much can change between now and then?

 

The whole concept of metrics relies on tangible numbers. Not speculation. We’re not talking about the front office and what they think or what their plan is or how they or anyone view next year’s class or anything else. We’re talking ONLY about the assignment of a numeric value to a future pick that has a host of variables that determine its actual value 

 

To try to saddle these future draft selections with a numeric value and use that as a justification of its value is a roll of the dice. It’s bad science. 

[DougDew 3,386]

6 hours ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

Let's discuss the value of said pick around this time next year, shall we?

Sure, as long as we don't forget about the value of the pick we traded this year.  

 

In a nutshell, we essentially decided to have the 46th BPA this year and, say, the 46th BPA next year in place of the 46th BPA this year and the 66th BPA this year. 

 

Except that of you confined the compensation to only picks this year, most would expect to get more than to just the 66th BPA this year for giving up the 26th BPA for the 46th BPA.  I think that's pretty clear.

 

It may work out just fine.  But Tillery is gone, and I assume Ballard must believe the 46th BPA isn't much of a drop off.

 

If he's looking for a WR or a S, the dropoff isn't that much, IMO.  But I think its pretty big if you're thinking about impactful DLs.

[csmopar 8,635]

2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Sure, as long as we don't forget about the value of the pick we traded this year.  

 

In a nutshell, we essentially decided to have the 46th BPA this year and, say, the 46th BPA next year in place of the 46th BPA this year and the 66th BPA this year. 

 

Except that of you confined the compensation to only picks this year, most would expect to get more than to just the 66th BPA this year for giving up the 26th BPA for the 46th BPA.  I think that's pretty clear.

 

It may work out just fine.  But Tillery is gone, and I assume Ballard must believe the 46th BPA isn't much of a drop off.

He did say at the presser that there wasn’t much of a drop off from 15-70....

[Myles 2,618]

Ballard has earned my trust, but I really didn't like this move.   It seems we should have been able to get more.  Maybe an additional 3rd round pick.   I was looking forward to getting 2 of the top 34 players in this draft.   

[DougDew 3,386]

17 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

 

And how much can change between now and then?

 

The whole concept of metrics relies on tangible numbers. Not speculation. We’re not talking about the front office and what they think or what their plan is or how they or anyone view next year’s class or anything else. We’re talking ONLY about the assignment of a numeric value to a future pick that has a host of variables that determine its actual value 

 

To try to saddle these future draft selections with a numeric value and use that as a justification of its value is a roll of the dice. It’s bad science. 

Agreed.  However, you put yourself in a position of having to value that future pick when you decide to accept it as compensation.

[ColtsGermany 177]

Just a thought..... Ballard didn't like what he could get with pick 26, so he traded out of the first round. He can get good talent in the 2nd round. Let's say OT, WR and CB( or S) . 

So...maybe he's viewing the extra 2nd rounder next year more as trade bait to move up and get a difference maker for the DLine in next years draft. Always keep in mind... He's planning for the long haul and wants to build a strong core out of the draft. (what should be done after this years draft) So our first round pick next year (if he is a true difference maker) could be the final piece for the Colts to get a SB (or 2, or 3....) 

[DougDew 3,386]

16 minutes ago, csmopar said:

He did say at the presser that there wasn’t much of a drop off from 15-70....

I think that's true also.  He also said some of his 8 guys were still on the board.  So there must have been a dropoff from that group.

 

He's also said that he is happy with our dline group.  Some probably don't understand that comment as well.

 

But you also have to think of it from the WASH perspective.  I'm selling something they apparently want.  They called.  And EDGE players are a premium position, with some saying Sweat fell due to a misdiagnosis.  So considering its Sweat, we have given up the, say, 18th BPA in the draft, or the equivalent of 28 slots.  I'm thinking if a team is calling me to get that player, my price is higher than what Ballard got.

[Coltsman1788 3,394]

4 hours ago, Stephen said:

I figured  Ballard  would pull this stunt, which is why I went to see Endgame instead of watching the draft

Smart man!  Lol. 

 

I must say though...watching this draft as it unfolded with another Colts fan buddy of mine and reacting together to the picks of the other teams and discussing what we thought Ballard was going to do as a result was it’s own kind of weird fun.   Lol.