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Matt Miller's Final Mock- NFL sources say Colts are really wanting Jonathon Abram

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3 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

i agree, but if you get what you want at 26 and it's a critical need, and sweat is still available at 34, the risk is a bit diminished.

 

if you wanted to roll the dice and take simmons and sweat at 26 and 34, you could win the lottery.... or get fired.

 

The risk isn't diminished in any appreciable way. The value difference between #26 and #34 is marginal (and depending on how you feel about the fifth year option, maybe negligible; fifth year options from 21-32 aren't locks, historically). 

 

And if Sweat's heart is a problem, it has nothing to do with where he's drafted. If I don't like his medical, I'm not taking him at #34. JMO. I might take him with a Day 3 pick. But even then, teams took Hurst completely off their boards last year, according to reports. 

1 minute ago, BigQungus said:

Anyways, this is kind of irrelevant now with the latest news

 

Probably. We'll know in 10 hours, or less.

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Maybe I havent watched enough tape on Abram, but I don't see the hype. He reminds me of a smaller Geathers. Sure he can hit, but gives you nothing in coverage

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3 minutes ago, CR91 said:

Maybe I havent watched enough tape on Abram, but I don't see the hype. He reminds me of a smaller Geathers. Sure he can hit, but gives you nothing in coverage

I've been saying he's very similar to Geathers all allong.

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One of the nice things about Abrams is he is a mature guy. He is married with a kid and is going  to grad school.  He really does sound like a colts player.

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11 minutes ago, CR91 said:

Maybe I havent watched enough tape on Abram, but I don't see the hype. He reminds me of a smaller Geathers. Sure he can hit, but gives you nothing in coverage

He wouldn’t be asked to do much in coverage. Hooker is good at that.

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   The knock on Geathers is his can’t stay healthy and doesn’t cover well. The upside on him is he’s got experience and when healthy, is a decent player. I think he’s been a bit undervalued by media and some fans. 

    From what we’ve been hearing, Abram isn’t a great cover guy either and is inexperienced. I can see getting a Safety at 59 (or later) but the IDL needs a difference maker. I’m hoping for Lawrence 

      Maybe the Colts think they have enough talent at UT with Hunt, Stewart and Ridgeway, but getting pressure up the middle and being a force against the run are IMO primary needs. Imagine pressuring opposing QBs from the outside and not allowing to step up! 

         Going to be interesting!

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9 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

He wouldn’t be asked to do much in coverage. Hooker is good at that.

 

So then whats the point? We have enough safeties that can hit, but can't cover already on the roster. Geathers, Odum, Kindred are all safeties that can hit, but suspect in coverage

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Yeah, I've gone back and watched Abram against Iowa, Auburn, and Alabama. I've seen most of the games I can find on him, which is only about 5, and I've been trying to watch him with an open mind because I really do think the Colts are targeting him.

But meh, I'm just whelmed by him. Sure, he has crazy closing burst stops every now and then, and I do think Eberflus could use him effectively in blitzes. But the negatives? He misses more tackles than you'd like, bites hard in play action, not to mention some of the time it looks like he's committing DPI. And then there's the fact that I think he's going to get flagged at inopportune times for taunting or just his hits in general.

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14 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

So then whats the point? We have enough safeties that can hit, but can't cover already on the roster. Geathers, Odum, Kindred are all safeties that can hit, but suspect in coverage

 

I don't know why people think it's a good idea to put a player in the secondary who can't cover. The primary responsibility for DBs is coverage. Yes, even the strong safety. As a matter of fact, the SS is more likely to have man responsibilities on critical downs, lined up against the receivers that QB love to throw to on critical downs. 

 

This was the same argument regarding Landon Collins. These so-called "box safeties" who can't cover are just glorified weakside backers. We already have a guy for that job. I want safeties who can cover TEs and slot receivers on third down.

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1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

I don't know why people think it's a good idea to put a player in the secondary who can't cover. The primary responsibility for DBs is coverage. Yes, even the strong safety. As a matter of fact, the SS is more likely to have man responsibilities on critical downs, lined up against the receivers that QB love to throw to on critical downs. 

 

This was the same argument regarding Landon Collins. These so-called "box safeties" who can't cover are just glorified weakside backers. We already have a guy for that job. I want safeties who can cover TEs and slot receivers on third down.

Yeah I don't understand that either lol.  Qbs are good enough to just pick apart at that player if they really wanted to. 

Honestly I'd rather have two safety that are great in coverage and terrible in the run game and can't tackle good. 

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Just now, Superman said:

 

I don't know why people think it's a good idea to put a player in the secondary who can't cover. The primary responsibility for DBs is coverage. Yes, even the strong safety. As a matter of fact, the SS is more likely to have man responsibilities on critical downs, lined up against the receivers that QB love to throw to on critical downs. 

 

This was the same argument regarding Landon Collins. These so-called "box safeties" who can't cover are just glorified weakside backers. We already have a guy for that job. I want safeties who can cover TEs and slot receivers on third down.

Abram can cover well in man though. And that’s just my personal opinion. If you read pretty much all of the respected analysts write ups on him you’ll here that he’s good in coverage as long as it’s man or the short to intermediate. That’s the exact same skill set that people have written about Amani Hooker. Garden-Johnson is the best in coverage but scouts see him as a FS.

 

I really don’t get where this idea that Abrams can’t cover comes from.

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1 minute ago, Defjamz26 said:

Abram can cover well in man though. And that’s just my personal opinion. If you read pretty much all of the respected analysts write ups on him you’ll here that he’s good in coverage as long as it’s man or the short to intermediate. That’s the exact same skill set that people have written about Amani Hooker. Garden-Johnson is the best in coverage but scouts see him as a FS.

 

I really don’t get where this idea that Abrams can’t cover comes from.

 

I've watched him. I don't see it. I think he's a mismatch in man coverage. I'm willing to be persuaded otherwise, but my initial reaction is that he struggles in man coverage, and doesn't have the range or ball skills to play single high.

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51 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

The risk isn't diminished in any appreciable way. The value difference between #26 and #34 is marginal (and depending on how you feel about the fifth year option, maybe negligible; fifth year options from 21-32 aren't locks, historically). 

 

And if Sweat's heart is a problem, it has nothing to do with where he's drafted. If I don't like his medical, I'm not taking him at #34. JMO. I might take him with a Day 3 pick. But even then, teams took Hurst completely off their boards last year, according to reports. 

 

Probably. We'll know in 10 hours, or less.

I agree it all depends on the medical. If it's a judgement call (we'll likely still not have a clear picture, and teams likely won't have time to do any due diligence by tomorrow) and you can get a top 5 guy at 34, and I already picked 26..., and have 59, I'm much more inclined to roll the dice. That's just me though.

 

Personally, I'd go Tillery, then WR and S (either order) with the next two. I'm good with DL/Edge for the time if we got JT. But, if we didn't have Houston in the fold right now...

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Give me any one of them safeties that takes the ball away.  Gardner Johnson, Thornhill, D. Savage.

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This isn't that complicated.  Picking 26 means we are at the mercy of the draft.  Its not like we're holding the 3rd pick.

 

Ballard probably has a pool of players he wants, weighed against who he thinks will be there, and Abram is the guy who creates the highest point when spread on both axis'.  

 

But if someone drops who he thought wouldn't have been there, Abrams is probably no longer the guy he hopes we get.

 

As far as Abram specifically, I think we need a safety who can play the middle routes in zone or man coverage.  Allowing Hooker to play better at single high, and Geathers to play closer to the LOS.  IMO, Amani Hooker's write ups fit that description the best, and should be available in the second round, but if Ballard sees something that says Abram can do that better than AHook, or has plans for a slightly different use, I trust that Abram should be the pick over AHook.

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Not a fan of Abram.

 

Currently watching Christian Wilkins do a nacho eat off against some dude at the draft. He’s legit.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, #12. said:

At #6, you had Nelson, obviously, but people were still hoping Chubb would drop to #6 and many were still looking for another trade down with the Bills at #11.  You also had a lot of Roquan Smith chatter.  Polian was saying Smith, leading up to the draft.

 

Early in the second, many were looking at Will Hernandez and hoping for Harold Landry, after he dropped 

I liked Smith a lot, but always thought #6 was an awkward place to get him. Too high, yet a trade down would result in too low of a spot to get him.  Leonard likely being available at 36 made it easier to move off of Smith and go with Nelson at #6.

 

Having liked the attributes that Smith would have brought to the defense, I felt better about the Nelson pick after we got Leonard.

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17 minutes ago, DougDew said:

This isn't that complicated.  Picking 26 means we are at the mercy of the draft.  Its not like we're holding the 3rd pick.

 

Ballard probably has a pool of players he wants, weighed against who he thinks will be there and Abram is the guy who creates the highest point when spread on both axis'.  

 

But if someone drops who he thought wouldn't have been there, Abrams is probably no longer the guy he hopes we get.

 

As far as Abram specifically, I think we need a safety who can play the middle routes in zone coverage.  Allowing Hooker to play better at single high, and Geathers to play closer to the LOS.  IMO, Amani Hooker's write ups fit that description the best, and should be available in the second round, but if Ballard sees something that says Abram can do that better than AHook, or has plans for a slightly different use, I trust that Abram should be the pick over AHook.

 

Abram isn’t a good fit IMO. Can’t cover very well. There are like 4-5 Ss I like better.

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Just now, shastamasta said:

 

Abram isn’t a good fit IMO. Can’t cover very well. There are like 4-5 Ss I like better.

Yes, but if I actually said that I would be putting myself in position of having to disagree with the pick if it was Abram.

 

And questioning DerBallard on this forum is dangerous.

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55 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I've watched him. I don't see it. I think he's a mismatch in man coverage. I'm willing to be persuaded otherwise, but my initial reaction is that he struggles in man coverage, and doesn't have the range or ball skills to play single high.

 

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3 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

 

 

I've seen this. Let's go over some plays. Give me some time stamps.

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26 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

He’s legit.

 

Legit at eating nachos?

 

Me too.  It's one of my strengths.

 

But my age, height, weight, speed, agility, and general lack of athleticism, experience, and football intelligence make me basically undraftable.

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I know the draft dictates what you can do, but I would be surprised if Ballard doesn't find some DL a 26th that he likes.

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If we're looking at what they want for this defense, then yeah, I'm sure he's high on their list.  

 

 

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38 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I've seen this. Let's go over some plays. Give me some time stamps.

The first is at :10 seconds. Breaks up a pass on a WR one on one down the sideline.

 

at 1:23 break up another pass. I believe that’s the TE he’s covering. You even here the announcer saying he was covered well by Abram

 

 

2:43 the ball doesn’t come his way but he’s in good position to either drive on the ball or tackle the receiver immediately .

 

3:22 in man against the TE and locks him up again

 

3:37 ball is overthrown but he’s right In stride with the receiver

 

4:12 INT caused by the pass rush but he was in perfect position.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

or maybe Ballard just trades out of the 1 round.

 

If the Cardinals take Murray, it might be easier to trade out of 34.  Teams survey what's left after day 1, the Cards hit a need at 33 and we trade out to some team high on a player at the beginning of day 2.

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FWIW with Sweat, I was listening to a podcast with Tony Pauline and he said (take this with a grain of salt) that we (he named the Colts specifically) believe that Sweat will still be on the board by pick 34. If this is true (and the Colts doctors have said he's okay) he would be steal at 34 IMO (I'd think he'd be a good pick even at 26 and then maybe have someone like Abrams or Savage or Rapp at 34.)

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1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

 

 

T.J.Ward is what I see. NFL receiving TEs and shifty RBs like James White will eat his lunch, IMO. Has to be protected by rush and scheme (more zone, which we do run). 

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3 minutes ago, GoColtsGo5150 said:

FWIW with Sweat, I was listening to a podcast with Tony Pauline and he said (take this with a grain of salt) that we (he named the Colts specifically) believe that Sweat will still be on the board by pick 34. If this is true (and the Colts doctors have said he's okay) he would be steal at 34 IMO (I'd think he'd be a good pick even at 26 and then maybe have someone like Abrams or Savage or Rapp at 34.)

I would dare say that the podcast was before the updated info on his heart condition.  Probably gone by 26.  

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1 minute ago, richard pallo said:

I would dare say that the podcast was before the updated info on his heart condition.  Probably gone by 26.  

 

Seahawks at 21 is what I am thinking. 

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2 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I would dare say that the podcast was before the updated info on his heart condition.  Probably gone by 26.  

I don't dispute that the podcast was before the updated info, plus given how tight lipped we've appeared to be under Ballard, I'm taking it with a pinch of salt. But I would assume that some teams would've cleared him even before the updated info. Maybe some teams are still hesitant in spite of the news (and mean they take other edge rushers over him.)

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13 minutes ago, GoColtsGo5150 said:

FWIW with Sweat, I was listening to a podcast with Tony Pauline and he said (take this with a grain of salt) that we (he named the Colts specifically) believe that Sweat will still be on the board by pick 34. If this is true (and the Colts doctors have said he's okay) he would be steal at 34 IMO (I'd think he'd be a good pick even at 26 and then maybe have someone like Abrams or Savage or Rapp at 34.)

If Sweat is on the board at 26 and the Colts pass, I will be the one with the heart condition.

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1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

The first is at :10 seconds. Breaks up a pass on a WR one on one down the sideline.

 

He ran well with the receiver, but the ball was poorly placed -- a little underthrown and too far to the inside -- and he affected the receiver enough that the pass wasn't caught, but he didn't break up the pass or even really defend it. I don't think that's a good rep for him.

 

(The very next play, he's in off man and gives up a huge cushion to an in-breaking route, which he was beat with, but the receiver drops the pass.)

 

> at 1:23 break up another pass. I believe that’s the TE he’s covering. You even here the announcer saying he was covered well by Abram

 

Another off target ball to Knox, and a very handsy rep for Abram that probably should have been PI. If the ball isn't behind the receiver, it's probably called. Look at the instant replay.

 

> 2:43 the ball doesn’t come his way but he’s in good position to either drive on the ball or tackle the receiver immediately .

 

It's off coverage, and he's 8 yards from the receiver when the ball is thrown to a different receiver. He completely gives up the out-breaking route and would have no chance to contest a well thrown ball.

 

> 3:22 in man against the TE and locks him up again

 

Good rep breaking on the ball, probably PI though as he got there early and came through the receiver.

 

> 3:37 ball is overthrown but he’s right In stride with the receiver

 

Decent rep, but he had help to the inside and just had to run with the receiver. He actually gives up the inside pretty quickly, and if that's an in-breaking route his man is open. I don't see this as an indication of good coverage.

 

> 4:12 INT caused by the pass rush but he was in perfect position.

 

I don't see how we can evaluate his coverage. He's still looking at the QB who is under pressure, and it's possible that he was getting beat to the outside on that rep. Good takeaway though.

 

Mine:

5:24 -- This is similar to yours at 2:43, he's in off man over the inside receiver, but the route combo crosses the outside receiver, and Abram appears unaware of the cross and has to go over the top of the crossing route, leaving a cushion for his man to get open to the outside. If it's 3rd and 4, he's toast. Same thing on your example at 2:43.

 

5:34 -- Receiver takes an outside release with an opening to the sideline. Help defender comes out of position to bite on the fake and gets beat by a double move. Abram wasn't in position to defend the out, got beat quickly off the line. I don't blame him for the double move, just looking at the receiver's leverage against him going into the out route.

 

(Not related: At 6:30, Jeffery Simmons with an outstanding double swim move for the immediate sack. Yeesh. I was looking for this yesterday, but was in the wrong game. I thought it was against Alabama.)

 

Back to Abram, I'm looking for the ability to mirror receivers' routes, anticipation, hip flip, foot quickness, ball awareness, route recognition, spatial awareness... those are the traits I don't see from Abram in man coverage. He has burst, speed, closing ability, tackling ability, body control, he's a good blitzer, he uses his hands to beat blockers, plays screens well and with reckless abandon... There are things to like about him on the field, but I don't like his coverage. 

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8 hours ago, NewEra said:

If it's between him and one of the beast IDL I'm going IDL. I don't want to have to rely on my safety to stop the run like we did with Sanders 

I’m hoping for the best available defensive lineman be that DT or edge player with the #26 pick.  

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5 hours ago, BigQungus said:

 

The picks aren't the same because there's less talent to choose from at #34 compared to #26, making the best alternative to not picking Sweat less attractive

 

 Typically the picks after the solid 15-20 players with 1st rd grades in any given draft, then has from say picks 20-40 or so are considered equal in talent, just pick your flavor.
 Ballard mentioned that number may be more like 15-70 this draft.

 And i am praying CB has several smoke screens out including PLEASE No Abrams.

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Smoke screens for both Abrams and Sweat! We passed on them both!

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