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Legend of Luck

Which Type Of Receiver Will We Target?

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I've spent the last few months evaluating wide receivers, watching tons of film, reading every scouting report I can get my hands on, trying to figure out which receiver I think is the best fit for us.

I see a lot of different guys mocked to us... DK, AJ Brown, Marquise Brown, N'keal Harry, Kelvin Harmon, Terry McLaurin, JJAW, etc..

A big part of my research has been trying to identify the TYPE of receiver we could use/need, because that would ultimately narrow down the field.

The staff actually gave us a slight hint a few weeks ago that has shifted my opinion. They mentioned their desire to have Funchess play a lot out of the slot. So that got me thinking...

You've got Funchess in the slot a good amount of the time. They love to move TY into the slot on occasion. They love using Ebron out of the slot as well....

So, my hunch is we likely dont target a slot specific receiver.

It will likely be a prototypical X receiver or a Z can has the flexibility to move to the slot on occasion, but can play primarily on the outside.

With that in mind, these are my rankings for such spots.

X Receivers

1. DK Metcalf
2a. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
2b. Hakeem Butler
4. Kelvin Harmon
5. Miles Boykin

Z Receivers

1. Deebo Samuel

2. AJ Brown
3. N'keal Harry
4. Terry McLaurin
5. DeMarcus Lodge 


I have a big wildcard in the mix though...and that's Jalen Hurd.

Former RB who converted to WR last year, looks incredible from the eye test but needs obvious development seeing as he's only played the position for a year. But, with that said...WOW! He is VERY impressive. If we can grab a guy like him on day 3, I would be absolutely ecstatic.

Bottom line is, I would actually feel very happy with DK, JJAW, Butler, Brown, Samuel, Lodge, and probably McLaurin or Harry (Harry projects more as a slot, but I think he has the skillset to play on the boundary.)

So, ultimately if we could grab EDGE and IDL with 26 and 34, I think we can wait till our original 2nd round pick and grab one of those guys.

Imagine a hall of Chase Winovich, Jerry Tillery, and JJAW, or Butler, or Deebo... I'd be on cloud 9.

 

But if we want to ensure we get one of the top guys (DK, JJAW, Deebo, Butler), I would be fine taking one of them with one of our 1st 2 picks.

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I'd ideally like either AJ Brown or Butler. I feel like they both have the versatility to play outside or in the slot and potential to be WR1 in a few years.

 

Winovich is a guy that I haven't given much thought to until about a week ago. He was always a consistent producer and then had a fantastic combine. I think he could be a very solid EDGE guy to take in the 2nd.

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I think this is a very good question.  Which type of receiver do we draft?

Point 1 - Our immediate need is for a big possession receiver.  The kind of guy that is your first read.  That doesn't need to get separation to be open.  That you can throw to in 1.88 seconds to get the first down.

Point 2 - If you're drafting for our needs three years down the road, you're not drafting T.Y.'s partner, you're drafting his replacement.  So, you're drafting the zippy, quick, fast guy, who works down the field, and takes longer to get open because he requires separation.

Point 3 - Our best possession receiver was Reggie Wayne, who didn't have that prototypical 6-4 size that was required for that type of receiver.  Is that prototypical size a requirement or not?

The convergence of those three points directs me to A.J. Brown.  A guy with non-prototypical size, but runs great routes, has great hands, and makes great yards after the catch.  Who worked from the slot most of his career at Mississippi, but could probably play anywhere.

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8 minutes ago, Shive said:

I'd ideally like either AJ Brown or Butler. I feel like they both have the versatility to play outside or in the slot and potential to be WR1 in a few years.

 

Winovich is a guy that I haven't given much thought to until about a week ago. He was always a consistent producer and then had a fantastic combine. I think he could be a very solid EDGE guy to take in the 2nd.

 

JJAW is my current "hearts desire." That dude just WINS. He led all of college football on 3rd and 4th down conversions, and redzone win %. A reliable, skilled, nuanced player with an unbelievable trump card in his ability to box out and win contested catch situations.

 

I just think his floor is so so high, and his ceiling is Jordy Nelson 2.0.

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3 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

I think this is a very good question.  Which type of receiver do we draft?

Point 1 - Our immediate need is for a big possession receiver.  The kind of guy that is your first read.  That doesn't need to get separation to be open.  That you can throw to in 1.88 seconds to get the first down.

Point 2 - If you're drafting for our needs three years down the road, you're not drafting T.Y.'s partner, you're drafting his replacement.  So, you're drafting the zippy, quick, fast guy, who works down the field, and takes longer to get open because he requires separation.

Point 3 - Our best possession receiver was Reggie Wayne, who didn't have that prototypical 6-4 size that was required for that type of receiver.  Is that prototypical size a requirement or not?

The convergence of those three points directs me to A.J. Brown.  A guy with non-prototypical size, but runs great routes, has great hands, and makes great yards after the catch.  Who worked from the slot most of his career at Mississippi, but could probably play anywhere.

 

I really like your thought process here.

 

You're definitely correct, there are 2 different ways this conversation around TY can go, compliment or potential replacement. 

 

However, IMO, TY is a Colt for life, much like Reggie. And I'm sure TY can play at a high level til his mid 30s at least. So, in 2019, I'm aiming for "compliment."

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To me, the only missing element is a slot receiver.  I like Deebo  the most, but Marquise Brown, Andy Isabella, Terry McLaurin, Stanley Morgan, Penny Hart, and Terry Godwin would all fit well at various points in the draft.  My mock has no WR right now, though...

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5 minutes ago, Legend of Luck said:

 

I really like your thought process here.

 

You're definitely correct, there are 2 different ways this conversation around TY can go, compliment or potential replacement. 

 

However, IMO, TY is a Colt for life, much like Reggie. And I'm sure TY can play at a high level til his mid 30s at least. So, in 2019, I'm aiming for "compliment."

That's kind of why I lean towards A.J. Brown.  He can pair with TY early, being that Reggie Wayne type of player.  And then he can pair with an older Devin Funchess or even a Deon Cain later, being the Z receiver downfield.  I'm betting he can do both.

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Just now, Archer said:

To me, the only missing element is a slot receiver.  I like Deebo  the most, but Marquise Brown, Andy Isabella, Terry McLaurin, Stanley Morgan, Penny Hart, and Terry Godwin would all fit well at various points in the draft.  My mock has no WR right now, though...

 

Can I ask though, why you feel a slot receiver is our missing link, when we have TY, Funchess, and Ebron already fighting for reps there?

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Just now, John Hammonds said:

That's kind of why I lean towards A.J. Brown.  He can pair with TY early, being that Reggie Wayne type of player.  And then he can pair with an older Devin Funchess or even a Deon Cain later, being the Z receiver downfield.  I'm betting he can do both.

 

I like AJ as well. 

 

I just love the upside of Butler and JJAW. Honestly, AJ could he just as good as they are. I just think it's so easy to project Butler and JJAWs success in the NFL. Butler is a great athlete for his size (not without acknowledging the drop problems), and JJAW is an elite contested catch machine. 

 

Line JJAW up against any corner on 3rd and 6 and I feel like he has an above average chance of winning. He just screams Jordy Nelson to me, who's one of my favorite non-Colt receivers of the last decade. 

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I want either Samuel Lodge McLaurin or Campbell.

 

I don't think AJ Brown last to 26

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I think we need an X and a slot. Ballard probably wants an X though. Hakeem Butler seems right up his alley. When he came to the Colts, he tried to sign Alshon Jeffrey. I think Butler compares better to Jeffrey, than he does to Megatron.

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1 minute ago, Defjamz26 said:

I think we need an X and a slot. Ballard probably wants an X though. Hakeem Butler seems right up his alley. When he came to the Colts, he tried to sign Alshon Jeffrey. I think Butler compares better to Jeffrey, than he does to Megatron.

 

DK is definitely closer to Megatron. But I'm not sure I see Alshon as a comp for Butler. Alshon is a great comp for Funchess, but Butler is different. I think Mike Evans is a decent comp for Butler.

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2 minutes ago, Legend of Luck said:

 

DK is definitely closer to Megatron. But I'm not sure I see Alshon as a comp for Butler. Alshon is a great comp for Funchess, but Butler is different. I think Mike Evans is a decent comp for Butler.

Jeffrey is basically a TD and traffic catch receiver. That’s what I see in Butler. Mike Evans isn’t a bad comp either.

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2 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Jeffrey is basically a TD and traffic catch receiver. That’s what I see in Butler. Mike Evans isn’t a bad comp either.

 

That makes sense. I just see more speed, explosiveness, and quickness from Butler than I do Alshon.

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My thought process goes like this - our only legit high level receiver we had last year was TY Hilton. Hilton is great and he's versatile... which means he had snaps from different formation and from different WR positions. No other receiver should come in the consideration about what type of receiver we need or should draft. None of them are good enough and/or established enough to make us pass on a great receiver in favor of lesser one. We just need playmakers... from anywhere we can get them.

 

Receivers very rarely are one trick ponies nowadays. They will line up in different positions around Hilton. The goal should be making teams doubling TY pay by either extending the field vertically with a second speedster that can win down the field(Holywood Brown, Andy Isabella, Terry McLaurin, Mecole Hardman, etc)... or with a YAC receiver that can make plays after the catch(Parris Campbell, Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown), or with alpha type X receiver that can beat his man one-on-one when TY gets doubled(Butler, Metcalf, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Boykin, etc)...  

 

I think Reich is creative enough to use all of those in different alignments and make them complement TY. Just draft the best receiver when you decide to take one. I really don't mind any type. We need help at ALL positions on the offense. None of them is 100% taken since Hilton is being moved around. 

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2 hours ago, stitches said:

My thought process goes like this - our only legit high level receiver we had last year was TY Hilton. Hilton is great and he's versatile... which means he had snaps from different formation and from different WR positions. No other receiver should come in the consideration about what type of receiver we need or should draft. None of them are good enough and/or established enough to make us pass on a great receiver in favor of lesser one. We just need playmakers... from anywhere we can get them.

 

Receivers very rarely are one trick ponies nowadays. They will line up in different positions around Hilton. The goal should be making teams doubling TY pay by either extending the field vertically with a second speedster that can win down the field(Holywood Brown, Andy Isabella, Terry McLaurin, Mecole Hardman, etc)... or with a YAC receiver that can make plays after the catch(Parris Campbell, Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown), or with alpha type X receiver that can beat his man one-on-one when TY gets doubled(Butler, Metcalf, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Boykin, etc)...  

 

I think Reich is creative enough to use all of those in different alignments and make them complement TY. Just draft the best receiver when you decide to take one. I really don't mind any type. We need help at ALL positions on the offense. None of them is 100% taken since Hilton is being moved around. 

 

Very good points. I mostly agree with you outside of the fact that we definitely have more definitive snaps being taken up in the slot than on the outside. We know TY is getting his, we know Funchess is getting a good share, and we know Ebron will see steady usage their too. 

 

So I lean slightly towards more of an outside figure, simply because he will make a bigger impact when hes on the field more often. I'd hate to take slot snaps away from any of those 3 vets, and I'd hate to bring in a sweet slot Rookie and bench him a bunch when those other guys get their reps there.

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No way they draft a WR to complement this years team.
With TY getting well into his career and with fragility concerns, Funchess on a 1 year deal, Doyle a big ?, and Ebron a FA after the season, a guy that could be very effective inside and outside is a fit.
N'Keal Harry would be a killer in our Offense.

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20 hours ago, Legend of Luck said:

 

Can I ask though, why you feel a slot receiver is our missing link, when we have TY, Funchess, and Ebron already fighting for reps there?

I was actually referring to the traditional slot-type player - small, very quick, precise routes, good after the catch (rather than just players capable of playing in the slot).  It’s a type we don’t really have much of on ther team (other than TY and Naheim, who have other roles).  

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If the Colts don't take a WR early, a guy named David Sills might be interesting.  6'3", 210 lbs, former QB. Pretty productive at WVU.  Projected to go in the 5th or so.  Just a thought.

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3 hours ago, TonyBungee said:

If the Colts don't take a WR early, a guy named David Sills might be interesting.  6'3", 210 lbs, former QB. Pretty productive at WVU.  Projected to go in the 5th or so.  Just a thought.

Really like him for the Colts too. He is by far the best WR Prospect at tracking the ball throw the air. He combines that with a good sense for running underneath the ball which allows him to catch over the shoulder throws nicely infront of his chest.

He would give us a threat up the seam, which we didn't have since reggie. Luck is so good at these touch throws over the shoulder it was a bit sad to see that we could only throw them to TY last year and because of his size deficits it was only really possible when the safety was far off since Luck needed to throw in a high arc to get over the underneath coverage and not throw over TYs head.

Another thing i really like about Sills is his understanding of when and how to fake on routes( this may be because of his QB past). I hate WR that throw out elaborate fakes and try to break a CBs ankles but end up making their QB wait an extra second until they finish their route. He does a great job of making defenders bit just enough so he gets 1-2 yards seperation and can catch without interference and be open for his QB as fast as possible.

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I'm not throwing out a name because I haven't spent that much time studying them.

All I can ask for is one that can run good routes has good hands and work himself open when needed.

Pretty much all the traits needed.

It wouldn't make me mad if the Colts drafted T. J. Hockenson.

 

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