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Value Pick @ 26


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Today’s NFL is about stopping the pass and less about stopping the run.  So with the 26th pick, what is OUR best value pick in today’s NFL per this Colts Team?

 

DL - No thanks, 1st rd is a 3 down diff maker not a run stuffer.

 

Safety - No thanks, a SS in today’s game is a 3-5 rd pick mainly due to their lack of athleticism in pass coverage and a change in today’s game (Throwing league).

 

CB - No thanks, the Colts play a zone scheme and no reason for 1st rd talent here.  Julian Love could be an All Pro in this system in the 2nd rd.

 

Edge - No Value this late in 1st rd.

 

RB - Were not a rb away from hoisting the Lombardi, pass on any Alabama rb.  (See history)

 

LB/OL/QB - Later rds better value.

 

This leaves one position that CB and Staff has failed to realize, WR!  How many 3-outs does it take?  Minus TY, Colts have a bunch of Misfits at the position and a bunch of fan hopefuls.  Marvin/Reggie and TY/insert name here?  Funchess is a Ebron clone, Cane is coming back from ACL (Takes 2 yrs), and nobody’s!

 

The BEST value for this Colts team at 26 is a game changer WR to go along with TY.  These for sure Game Changer WR’s don’t normally fall to 26 so take full advantage.  Go watch the Chiefs game and ask yourself if we had another playmaker outside TY on the other side?

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No bites so what about Kneal Harry opposite TY and whoever you want to throw in the slot and at TE?  Dude plays multiple sports and is a one of a kind Generational ATHLETE.  Simply put if K’neal is avail at 26, it’s our BEST value and easily BPA.  Marvin right, Reggie left...

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IMHO........ 2 cents from Deano

 

First off..... you may ultimately be right...... Draft science is not EXACT

 

But.....

 

If Jeffery Simmons is sitting there.... he is a 3 down player, a difference maker, and possible Pro Bowl player

 

Dexter Lawrence is a monster....... he takes the double team, (and still gets TFL) The REST of the DL, gets one-on-ones..........  Give him a rotation, and he will be an AWESOME pickup

 

I would LOVE Simmons at 26, Lawrence at 34....  (But if Abram is sitting there at 34, the staff would probably go that way)

 

 

MOST WRs take 1 to 2 years to develop (Reggie Wayne is a PERFECT example)

 

Jeffery Simmons needs a year as well (For a different reason, of course)

 

There will be at least one or two excellent WRs still on the board at 59

 

KNeal..... MIGHT still be there......

 

Isabella will PROBABLY be there

Boyken will PROBABLY be there

Butler is sliding, and will PROBABLY be there (16% Drops????)

 

K'neal is talented, but the guy did not get separation from college DBs.  That concerns me.

 

I think at 26, Kneal is 20 spots earlier than what he is going to be drafted at which isnt a value to me

 

Again.... 2 cents

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1 hour ago, MikeCurtis said:

 

 

 

IMHO........ 2 cents from Deano

 

First off..... you may ultimately be right...... Draft science is not EXACT

 

But.....

 

If Jeffery Simmons is sitting there.... he is a 3 down player, a difference maker, and possible Pro Bowl player

 

Dexter Lawrence is a monster....... he takes the double team, (and still gets TFL) The REST of the DL, gets one-on-ones..........  Give him a rotation, and he will be an AWESOME pickup

 

I would LOVE Simmons at 26, Lawrence at 34....  (But if Abram is sitting there at 34, the staff would probably go that way)

 

 

MOST WRs take 1 to 2 years to develop (Reggie Wayne is a PERFECT example)

 

Jeffery Simmons needs a year as well (For a different reason, of course)

 

There will be at least one or two excellent WRs still on the board at 59

 

KNeal..... MIGHT still be there......

 

Isabella will PROBABLY be there

Boyken will PROBABLY be there

Butler is sliding, and will PROBABLY be there (16% Drops????)

 

K'neal is talented, but the guy did not get separation from college DBs.  That concerns me.

 

I think at 26, Kneal is 20 spots earlier than what he is going to be drafted at which isnt a value to me

 

Again.... 2 cents

Butler did have a lot of drops, but after being called out about it, has been working with his WR coach and catching 150+ balls a day. Seems like Chris and Frank type of player work and push yourself to get better

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23 minutes ago, Jeremy Waldon said:

Butler did have a lot of drops, but after being called out about it, has been working with his WR coach and catching 150+ balls a day. Seems like Chris and Frank type of player work and push yourself to get better

Butler looks amazing on tape.......  amazing wingspan

 

If he fixed his drops I would be ALL FOR him......  I can imagine how tough it would be to guard him in the endzone

 

I still have nightmares of the drop by our TE on the first drive at KC......  3rd down......

 

I love Ebron...... but DANG

 

Cant drop those balls.....

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I have to disagree about S. A guy that can cover and play alongside Hooker in the base defense would be very valuable. We have also seen how much immediate impact Ss can have in their rookie years. I don't think the Colts are looking for an in-the-box S...they have both Geathers and Kindred for that role. I think they want a guy that can do it all. Someone like Adderley or CGJ is likely in play at #26.

 

But I still think Ballard will move down, barring a LB or edge falling. If you look at some of the prospects they have been attached to...guys like Lindstrom and Jacobs...they are at positions that aren't immediate needs. I think Ballard wants to have another pick or two in that Day Two range so he has the flexibility to pull the trigger on just about any non-K position (the right QB might not even be off the board).

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14 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

I have to disagree about S. A guy that can cover and play alongside Hooker in the base defense would be very valuable. We have also seen how much immediate impact Ss can have in their rookie years. I don't think the Colts are looking for an in-the-box S...they have both Geathers and Kindred for that role. I think they want a guy that can do it all. Someone like Adderley or CGJ is likely in play at #26.

 

But I still think Ballard will move down, barring a LB or edge falling. If you look at some of the prospects they have been attached to...guys like Lindstrom and Jacobs...they are at positions that aren't immediate needs. I think Ballard wants to have another pick or two in that Day Two range so he has the flexibility to pull the trigger on just about any non-K position (the right QB might not even be off the board).

CGJ, perhaps. But I believe Adderley is projected to be a free safety. My guess is that a strong safety is taken but not until the second round. The depth and quality at this position is among the best in the draft. 

What isn't going to last are excellent D-linemen. I suspect a very, very good one will be there at 26. And that will be the way the Colts roll. Wilkins, Tillery, or Lawrence, in that order. 

 

As for trading down, you obviously have to have a willing partner. I am more and more convinced that there won't be a decent offer at that point in the draft, and that Ballard will stay put. The only reason for a team to trade up to 26 is for a QB, and I expect the good ones to be long gone at that point. 

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OP's dismissal of interior DL is off base, IMO.....  interior DL can bring pressure just fine.... Autry had 9 sacks last year, playing in a rotation....  ATL seems to like penetration from the DL interior.... in fact, a solid pass rush from the center of the pocket, is just as, if not more valuable than, an Edge rush...

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2 hours ago, Jeremy Waldon said:

Butler did have a lot of drops, but after being called out about it, has been working with his WR coach and catching 150+ balls a day. Seems like Chris and Frank type of player work and push yourself to get better

 

Yeah, cue Nyheim Hines from pre-season and Ebron's drops, did they produce well for us to be effective? I am confident with this coaching staff to make the most out of the talent that they agree to coach. 

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2 thoughts:

1. I don't really see any WRs worth a 1st round pick in this draft, although I'm sure someone will pull the trigger.  I'd be ok with one at 59.  

 

2. (And bear with me),

In the 3 "win or go home" games at the end of last year (at Tenn, at Houston,  at KC), Andrew Luck threw 14 passes to Dontrelle Inman.   Inman caught 13, for 187 yards and 2 TD.  

 

I know Inman's career has been a mixed bag, but he stepped off the plane last year and immediately became the 2nd-best WR on the team, and it wasn't close.  In a relatively short time,  he developed great chemistry with Luck, and I'd love to see them get a chance to continue together.   I know we're looking for youth & upside, but dang it, this team could win a SB THIS YEAR.  I know he's not currently on the roster, but I truly believe if they don't re-sign him, they'll regret it.  (JMO).

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I understand where you are coming from, but late First Round WRs rarely pan out either. Here's a list 20 of the top WRs in the NFL and where they were drafted, based on The Draft Networks list, https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/the-top-20-wide-receivers-in-the-nfl:

 

Deandre Hopkins - Round 1, Pick 27

Julio Jones - Round 1, Pick 6

Michael Thomas - Round 2, Pick 47

Antonio Brown - Round 6, Pick 195

Adam Thielen - Undrafted

Odell Beckham Jr - Round 1, Pick 12

Tyreek Hill - Round 5, Pick 165

Mike Evans - Round 1, Pick 7

Juju Smith-Schuster - Round 2, Pick 62

Davante Adams - Round 2, Pick 53

Keenan Allen - Round 3, Pick 76

Stefon Diggs - Round 5, Pick 146

AJ Green - Round 1, Pick 4

TY Hilton - Round 3, Pick 92

Brandin Cooks - Round 1, Pick 20

Robert Woods - Round 2, Pick 41

Amari Cooper - Round 1, Pick 4

Kenny Golladay - Round 3, Pick 96

Tyler Lockett - Round 3, Pick 69

Emanuel Sanders - Round 3, Pick 82

 

Totals:

Top 16 of Round 1: 5

Bottom 16 of Round 1: 2

Round 2: 4

Round 3: 5

Round 4: 0

Round 5: 2

Round 6: 1

Round 7: 0

Undrafted: 1

 

As can be seen, most value in the draft at WR can be gotten in the either the top of the first or the second and third rounds. Only two WRs taken in the back half of round one have become top 20 caliber players. 

 

Let's also look at the past 5 drafts, receivers taken in the bottom half of round 1:

 

Brandin Cooks (2014)

Kelvin Benjamin (2014)

Nelson Agholor (2015)

Breshad Perriman (2015)

Philip Dorsett (2015)

Will Fuller (2016)

Josh Doctson (2016)

Laquon Treadwell (2016)

DJ Moore (2018)

Calvin Ridley (2018)

 

While the jury is still out on Moore and Ridley, only Cooks has really performed at a high level out of them all. 5 of the remaining 7 have been very disappointing thus far (Benjamin, Perriman, Dorsett, Doctson, Treadwell), and the remaining two are both unreliable at times, and decent at best. Based on this evidence, I personally would least like 26 to be WR. In fact, I would only put QB, P, K, and OL below it at that slot. Late first round receivers rarely pan out, and I want this draft to be another big success to push us up the ladder into SB talks.

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I still think people are overlooking n/keel Harry wide receiver upside as an alternative to TY Hilton. He is a beast and if he was paired with TY the would be a force reckoned with I promise you. don't know how the draft will fall out but if by some happenstance  we got him. It would solve our wide out problems for years to come.   

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14 hours ago, Shafty138 said:

OP's dismissal of interior DL is off base, IMO.....  interior DL can bring pressure just fine.... Autry had 9 sacks last year, playing in a rotation....  ATL seems to like penetration from the DL interior.... in fact, a solid pass rush from the center of the pocket, is just as, if not more valuable than, an Edge rush...

Autry is just fine and doesn’t cost us a 1st rd pick is exactly my point.  We also have J Ward, will any of these IDL prospects be any better than what we already have?  Will any of them make us beat Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady or Big Ben??  No, only positional talent BEATS these guys just ask the Rams with ALL PRO Donald!  Not enough playmakers and these so called Interior DL are good to have but seem to come up short in the big games.  Great to have but don’t win the big one!!!  How many rings do Suh and Donald have combined?  Zero is my point and to think they were on the same TEAM?

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1 hour ago, NDcolt said:

Autry is just fine and doesn’t cost us a 1st rd pick is exactly my point.  We also have J Ward, will any of these IDL prospects be any better than what we already have?  Will any of them make us beat Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady or Big Ben??  No, only positional talent BEATS these guys just ask the Rams with ALL PRO Donald!  Not enough playmakers and these so called Interior DL are good to have but seem to come up short in the big games.  Great to have but don’t win the big one!!!  How many rings do Suh and Donald have combined?  Zero is my point and to think they were on the same TEAM?

 

And it was only the year before that where the Philadelphia Eagles and their defense and their front 4 was able to defeat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. 

 

How quickly people forget....

 

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12 hours ago, WarGhost21 said:

I understand where you are coming from, but late First Round WRs rarely pan out either. Here's a list 20 of the top WRs in the NFL and where they were drafted, based on The Draft Networks list, https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/the-top-20-wide-receivers-in-the-nfl:

 

Deandre Hopkins - Round 1, Pick 27

Julio Jones - Round 1, Pick 6

Michael Thomas - Round 2, Pick 47

Antonio Brown - Round 6, Pick 195

Adam Thielen - Undrafted

Odell Beckham Jr - Round 1, Pick 12

Tyreek Hill - Round 5, Pick 165

Mike Evans - Round 1, Pick 7

Juju Smith-Schuster - Round 2, Pick 62

Davante Adams - Round 2, Pick 53

Keenan Allen - Round 3, Pick 76

Stefon Diggs - Round 5, Pick 146

AJ Green - Round 1, Pick 4

TY Hilton - Round 3, Pick 92

Brandin Cooks - Round 1, Pick 20

Robert Woods - Round 2, Pick 41

Amari Cooper - Round 1, Pick 4

Kenny Golladay - Round 3, Pick 96

Tyler Lockett - Round 3, Pick 69

Emanuel Sanders - Round 3, Pick 82

 

Totals:

Top 16 of Round 1: 5

Bottom 16 of Round 1: 2

Round 2: 4

Round 3: 5

Round 4: 0

Round 5: 2

Round 6: 1

Round 7: 0

Undrafted: 1

 

As can be seen, most value in the draft at WR can be gotten in the either the top of the first or the second and third rounds. Only two WRs taken in the back half of round one have become top 20 caliber players. 

 

Let's also look at the past 5 drafts, receivers taken in the bottom half of round 1:

 

Brandin Cooks (2014)

Kelvin Benjamin (2014)

Nelson Agholor (2015)

Breshad Perriman (2015)

Philip Dorsett (2015)

Will Fuller (2016)

Josh Doctson (2016)

Laquon Treadwell (2016)

DJ Moore (2018)

Calvin Ridley (2018)

 

While the jury is still out on Moore and Ridley, only Cooks has really performed at a high level out of them all. 5 of the remaining 7 have been very disappointing thus far (Benjamin, Perriman, Dorsett, Doctson, Treadwell), and the remaining two are both unreliable at times, and decent at best. Based on this evidence, I personally would least like 26 to be WR. In fact, I would only put QB, P, K, and OL below it at that slot. Late first round receivers rarely pan out, and I want this draft to be another big success to push us up the ladder into SB talks.

 

Thanks for doing this.....     I'll be doing something more extensive on the topic of First Round Wide Receivers.    I've had a running debate with our new member, Irish....    he thinks there's real value in a 1st round WR.....     I definitely don't...

 

I think our argument will prevail...

 

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30 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

And it was only the year before that where the Philadelphia Eagles and their defense and their front 4 was able to defeat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. 

 

How quickly people forget....

 

Autry, Ward, Lewis and Hunt are all capable and already on the roster, can you say the same about WR?  TY, and Misfits is what you get.  Even if TY is completely healthy he can’t do it all alone.  This reminds me of Ryan Grigson trying to fix the OL with later rd talent and wasn’t until we have 3 first rd picks that it was solidified.  Same goes for WR, a 4th rd gem and a bunch of misfits will not get it done!!!  It’s time to finally ADD 1st rd Talent to this corps or early exit in Jan.

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3 hours ago, NDcolt said:

Autry, Ward, Lewis and Hunt are all capable and already on the roster, can you say the same about WR?  TY, and Misfits is what you get.  Even if TY is completely healthy he can’t do it all alone.  This reminds me of Ryan Grigson trying to fix the OL with later rd talent and wasn’t until we have 3 first rd picks that it was solidified.  Same goes for WR, a 4th rd gem and a bunch of misfits will not get it done!!!  It’s time to finally ADD 1st rd Talent to this corps or early exit in Jan.

You don’t believe the WR position can be fixed without using a first round pick? You think our current WR position is similar to the OL situation under Grigson? Really??? This stuff can’t be made up.... interesting thought process. 

 

Back on earth I think we can expect improvements made by our young guys. For some it will be their first full camp with the team and let’s not forget last summer our QB was working through his own things. I think we add to the group at some point. I doubt it’s a day one selection and despite that somehow we will manage to continue to get better. 

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4 hours ago, NDcolt said:

Autry, Ward, Lewis and Hunt are all capable and already on the roster, can you say the same about WR?  TY, and Misfits is what you get.  Even if TY is completely healthy he can’t do it all alone.  This reminds me of Ryan Grigson trying to fix the OL with later rd talent and wasn’t until we have 3 first rd picks that it was solidified.  Same goes for WR, a 4th rd gem and a bunch of misfits will not get it done!!!  It’s time to finally ADD 1st rd Talent to this corps or early exit in Jan.

I’m not arguing against the need of more and better WRs...   I’ve made that post countless times.    But the draft isn’t one round.   

 

Ballard will find someone he likes in R2 or 3 or 4.   And they will be good.

 

Remember, at his draft presser,  Ballard talked about more work building the lines which he views as the foundation of the team.

 

Just saying....

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Every year there's guys we think will go in the top 15 that falls to the bottom of round 1, this year will be no exception. No value at CB? How about Greedy Williams who seems to be falling? Safety? Rapp would look good with the shoe on his helmet. How about a top 5 valve like Sweet or Simmons? Both fall because of health issues but both fantastic values. 

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8 hours ago, ColtJax said:

Every year there's guys we think will go in the top 15 that falls to the bottom of round 1, this year will be no exception. No value at CB? How about Greedy Williams who seems to be falling? Safety? Rapp would look good with the shoe on his helmet. How about a top 5 valve like Sweet or Simmons? Both fall because of health issues but both fantastic values. 

Greedy is not physical and this team demands that of its corners. Rapp is to slow.  I don't care about his intangibles.  I am not drafting a safety who runs a 4.7. 

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1 hour ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Greedy is not physical and this team demands that of its corners. Rapp is to slow.  I don't care about his intangibles.  I am not drafting a safety who runs a 4.7. 

Rapp certainly doesn't look like a 4.7 guy on film. Another safety who ran a 4.7 at the combine was Jairus Byrd. Byrd still ended up going early second round and turned into a 3-time Pro Bowler and two time 2nd Team All-Pro player. 

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40 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

Rapp certainly doesn't look like a 4.7 guy on film. Another safety who ran a 4.7 at the combine was Jairus Byrd. Byrd still ended up going early second round and turned into a 3-time Pro Bowler and two time 2nd Team All-Pro player. 

Yea, but if u look at the  stats.....very few safeties with that 40 time do anything. What's more covering is that the 40 was at his pro day which is hand timed....yikes.

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1 hour ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Yea, but if u look at the  stats.....very few safeties with that 40 time do anything. What's more covering is that the 40 was at his pro day which is hand timed....yikes.

Tape is king. You can't tell me he looks like a 4.7 guy on tape. Did Jerry Rice look like a 4.7 guy on tape?

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For me personally, a 4.7 DOES hurt the draft stock on a good football player

 

At 4.7 speed, you would have to leave Rapp in a SS box, only

 

Some of the other Safeties can play Both box and deep

 

Savage, Gardner, Thornhill, and even Abram can play both roles (Abram a little less)

This gives your defense tremendous flexibility, and a different look

(ALL of these 4 should be available with 34, or maybe 1 or 2, at 59)

 

Rapp may fall to 3rd round.... I dont think anyone on this thread is actually asking for Rapp at 26.... right? (what the thread is started on)

 

I think there will be a DL (or possible OT) fall to our spot, that is worthy of 26

 

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Greedy is not physical and this team demands that of its corners. Rapp is to slow.  I don't care about his intangibles.  I am not drafting a safety who runs a 4.7. 

 

Greedy is getting a lot of bad rep, IMO, for his tackling. They did discuss that he was probably dealing with a neck injury due to which he would "buffet tackle" i.e. pick and choose when to tackle. Not sure how much of it is true but I could see him playing with a chip on his shoulder because of that.

 

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On 4/23/2019 at 2:04 AM, NDcolt said:

Autry is just fine and doesn’t cost us a 1st rd pick is exactly my point.  We also have J Ward, will any of these IDL prospects be any better than what we already have?  Will any of them make us beat Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady or Big Ben??  No, only positional talent BEATS these guys just ask the Rams with ALL PRO Donald!  Not enough playmakers and these so called Interior DL are good to have but seem to come up short in the big games.  Great to have but don’t win the big one!!!  How many rings do Suh and Donald have combined?  Zero is my point and to think they were on the same TEAM?

 

 

Lol...

 

"hOw mANy riNgS doeS AnDreW LuCk HAve? zERo? hE sUcKS!"

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On 4/23/2019 at 2:04 AM, NDcolt said:

Autry is just fine and doesn’t cost us a 1st rd pick is exactly my point.  We also have J Ward, will any of these IDL prospects be any better than what we already have?  Will any of them make us beat Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady or Big Ben??  No, only positional talent BEATS these guys just ask the Rams with ALL PRO Donald!  Not enough playmakers and these so called Interior DL are good to have but seem to come up short in the big games.  Great to have but don’t win the big one!!!  How many rings do Suh and Donald have combined?  Zero is my point and to think they were on the same TEAM?

 

The logic blows my mind.

 

Rams have good DL. They lost. Therefore, having good DL isn't important for winning.

 

Let's use that same logic in a different scenario.

 

Steelers have good WRs. They lost. Therefore, having good WRs isn't important for winning

 

 

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On 4/23/2019 at 3:18 AM, NewColtsFan said:

 

And it was only the year before that where the Philadelphia Eagles and their defense and their front 4 was able to defeat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. 

 

How quickly people forget....

 

 

I don't think many people are forgetting. No one outside of NDcolt actually thinks that D line is not important

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On 4/21/2019 at 11:08 PM, NDcolt said:

Today’s NFL is about stopping the pass and less about stopping the run.  So with the 26th pick, what is OUR best value pick in today’s NFL per this Colts Team?

 

DL - No thanks, 1st rd is a 3 down diff maker not a run stuffer.

 

Safety - No thanks, a SS in today’s game is a 3-5 rd pick mainly due to their lack of athleticism in pass coverage and a change in today’s game (Throwing league).

 

CB - No thanks, the Colts play a zone scheme and no reason for 1st rd talent here.  Julian Love could be an All Pro in this system in the 2nd rd.

 

Edge - No Value this late in 1st rd.

 

RB - Were not a rb away from hoisting the Lombardi, pass on any Alabama rb.  (See history)

 

LB/OL/QB - Later rds better value.

 

This leaves one position that CB and Staff has failed to realize, WR!  How many 3-outs does it take?  Minus TY, Colts have a bunch of Misfits at the position and a bunch of fan hopefuls.  Marvin/Reggie and TY/insert name here?  Funchess is a Ebron clone, Cane is coming back from ACL (Takes 2 yrs), and nobody’s!

 

The BEST value for this Colts team at 26 is a game changer WR to go along with TY.  These for sure Game Changer WR’s don’t normally fall to 26 so take full advantage.  Go watch the Chiefs game and ask yourself if we had another playmaker outside TY on the other side?

I think you have the right idea but solving it different than what I hear the team say in unison.  In a league getting smaller and faster on D, we want to pound it down peoples throats.  Think about how good the Dallas offense is at running the ball then imagine that with Andrew at QB and that's the vision.  I sense they are looking to dominate the line of scrimmage, pound the rock and throw at will.  Now, I freely admit, there's no way to read minds or know how a draft will fall but I'm starting to lean towards Dalton Risner if he's there.  I would be totally blown away if we go WR early.  If you do research on the kid, he sounds exactly like what Balland and Riech want.  Don't discount we brought Howard Mudd back as well...signs, signs, everywhere a sign!  Looking forward to tomorrow...if we get a receiver I'll be good with that too! :)

 

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On 4/21/2019 at 10:08 PM, NDcolt said:

 

This leaves one position that CB and Staff has failed to realize, WR!  

 

I think they are well schooled and studied, and I think they REALIZE the whole picture very well

 

They have earned my trust

 

I would be very surprised if they went WR, but...... who knows

 

I am willing to give some odds on it if you like..... PM me...... the "take a CB in round one" guys stop short of a wager.........

 

 

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