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By The Numbers: NFL Draft Analytics for Defensive Linemen

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I found this one interesting: 

 

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbers/nfl-draft-analytics-def

 

I won't quote the full thing, you can go and read it if you want, but here are some takeaways:

 

For EDGE under 270LBS:

 

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These are your speed rushers, and it shows in the NFL Combine stats. The most correlated stats with AV/G are the cone drill, speed score, 40-yard dash, and agility score. And all of them are measurements of speed. If your trying to predict Pro Bowls, then speed score is the top metric.

 

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Of the on-field college metrics, there isn’t a single statistic that has been correlated to overall early NFL success. Instead, we need to go NFL statistic by NFL statistic. For example, let’s look at NFL sacks per game, which is the primary statistic NFL teams are looking for when they draft an EDGE rusher. There are two college stats that have historically been correlated with NFL sacks per game -- tackles for loss and tackles for loss per game.

 

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That means that by simply weighting college tackles for loss over college sacks, you’ll have an advantage over other draft analysts. In fact, 15 of the 17 EDGE rushers who averaged at least 0.50 sacks per game in NFL seasons two through four averaged at least 1.0 tackles for loss in his final collegiate season.

 

For EDGE over 270LBS:

 

Quote

Of the NFL Combine metrics, the cone drill, broad jump, and agility score are still important, but speed score and the 40-yard dash aren’t as correlated to early NFL success. This makes sense because these heavy EDGE rushers are more reliant on power and hand usage than the speed rushers.

 

For DTs:

Quote

 

College tackles for loss was a better predictor of NFL sacks than college sacks for EDGE rushers, and the same can be said for defensive tackle. Tackles for loss also is the best single pre-draft metric that we have for overall early NFL success. If you want to create a minimum threshold, then I recommend using 0.75 tackles for loss per game.

 

Like you’ll see with linebackers, solo tackles are far more important than assisted tackles. In fact, there’s a moderate, positive correlation to early NFL success with solo tackles and a negative correlation with assisted tackles. If you want to look at production, don’t even bother looking at assisted tackles or total tackles. Just highlight the tackles for loss and solo tackles, then move on.

 

 

 

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If you are looking for sacks, look no further than the broad jump. It’s my favorite measure of explosion, and that’s what’s needed to sack quarterbacks in the NFL, along with technique. As you can see, defensive tackle sack artists all had a broad jump of at least 100 inches. Guess where Aaron Donald is on this chart? You’ll probably get it right.

 

The article has other parts about the other defensive positions(LB, S, CB), but I wanted to limit this one to the defensive lines. Some of those are fascinating... Like TFLs in college being a better predictor of future success than sacks... or the Broad Jump being one of the better predictors of success for Interior Linemen. 

 

Anyways... What are your thoughts on this one? I want to collect the stats/tests for this year's class, but I kind of don't have the time to do it... Ed Oliver crushes both the TFL and Broad Jump metrics even if he doesn't dominate in sacks. 

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34 minutes ago, stitches said:

Some of those are fascinating... Like TFLs in college being a better predictor of future success than sacks... or the Broad Jump being one of the better predictors of success for Interior Linemen

 

Thanks for sharing this great stuff. This is very interesting.

 

I recall @Dustin writing that he thought Danielle Hunter was a good prospect coming out of college but that he had few sacks. This article made me wonder what Hunter's TFL were when he was in college. Sure enough, he had 13 TFL in 13 games his last year in college. He had only 1.5 sacks.

 

I recently saw a re-drafting of the 2015 draft. Whoever wrote it had Hunter going first overall. We drafted him in the 3rd but many questioned that pick. Given his Combine and his age (19 when drafted), I thought he was a good pick.  

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48 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

Sure enough, he had 13 TFL in 13 games his last year in college.

 

Lol. That's pretty meh compared to some of the players in this draft. Jaylon Ferguson had 26 in 13 games. Level of competition was not great but it is still impressive. Gerald Willis of Miami and Ben Banogu of TCU and others are pretty high up there too for DL in this draft.

 

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/39

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1 hour ago, NFLfan said:

 

Lol. That's pretty meh compared to some of the players in this draft. Jaylon Ferguson had 26 in 13 games. Level of competition was not great but it is still impressive. Gerald Willis of Miami and Ben Banogu of TCU and others are pretty high up there too for DL in this draft.

 

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/39

I did the DTs from my board and here are the results sorted by TFL/game:

 

USALHbI.jpg

 

Seems like small school prospect get a bit of a bump because of low level competition. Ed Oliver Jeffery Simmons, Quinnen and Gerald Willins, as well as Zach Allen rank high one those. 

 

Jerry Tillery is a little bit under the threshold they recommend. 

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19 minutes ago, stitches said:

I did the DTs from my board and here are the results sorted by TFL/game:

 

USALHbI.jpg

 

Seems like small school prospect get a bit of a bump because of low level competition. Ed Oliver Jeffery Simmons, Quinnen and Gerald Willins, as well as Zach Allen rank high one those. 

 

Jerry Tillery is a little bit under the threshold they recommend. 

 

Love this Stitches. Great info.

Tillery had 10.5 in 13 games. So above threshold at 0.81

plus 3 forced fumbles :-)

https://und.com/cumestats.aspx?path=football&year=2018

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3 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

 

Love this Stitches. Great info.

Tillery had 10.5 in 13 games. So above threshold at 0.81

plus 3 forced fumbles :-)

https://und.com/cumestats.aspx?path=football&year=2018

Oh, OK... Thanks. I used the reference numbers because it's easier to search for all the players there, but sometimes their numbers are not correct/complete(it showed 8.5 for 12 games... oh well... I guess they missed a game or something. 

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31 minutes ago, stitches said:

I did the DTs from my board and here are the results sorted by TFL/game:

 

USALHbI.jpg

 

Seems like small school prospect get a bit of a bump because of low level competition. Ed Oliver Jeffery Simmons, Quinnen and Gerald Willins, as well as Zach Allen rank high one those. 

 

Jerry Tillery is a little bit under the threshold they recommend. 

 

Thank you for sharing that. I see that Banogu is not on your list (edit: your list only has DT. A Vikings fan thought he compared favorably to the aforementioned Danielle Hunter. He wrote:

 

Banogu 
height 6’3.5 
weight 250 
40 4.62 
vertical 40 
broad 134 
3-cone 7.02 
20 yd sh 4.27 
bench 23

 

Hunter
height 6’5
weight 252
40 4.57
vertical 36.5
broad 130
3-cone 6.95
20 yd sh 4.47
bench 25

 

I know nothing about Banogu, but I did read an article about the TCU Pro Day. I came away from the article thinking that the scouts and player personnel folks were not impressed. They seemed to like Collier.

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Just now, NFLfan said:

 

Thank you for sharing that. I see that Banogu is not on your list. A Vikings fan thought he compared favorably to the aforementioned Danielle Hunter. He wrote:

 

Banogu 
height 6’3.5 
weight 250 
40 4.62 
vertical 40 
broad 134 
3-cone 7.02 
20 yd sh 4.27 
bench 23

 

Hunter
height 6’5
weight 252
40 4.57
vertical 36.5
broad 130
3-cone 6.95
20 yd sh 4.47
bench 25

 

I know nothing about Banogu, but I did read an article about the TCU Pro Day. I came away from the article thinking that the scouts and player personnel folks were not impressed. They seemed to like Collier.

Yeah, I've heard scouts like Collier more too... Banogu seems like a bit of a project but he does have the athleticism that makes coaches go "I can coach this guy"... 

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7 minutes ago, stitches said:

Yeah, I've heard scouts like Collier more too... Banogu seems like a bit of a project but he does have the athleticism that makes coaches go "I can coach this guy"... 

 

I wrote earlier that Banogu is not on your list, but after looking at it again, your list includes only DTs. So, I get it. 

 

The same guy wrote that Banogu has the highest Sparq score among EDGE prospects this year.

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