PFF Final Big Board for the 2019 NFL Draft

[stitches]

Seems like PFF have published their final board for the draft. You can find it here:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-pffs-top-250-big-board-for-the-2019-nfl-draft

 

Some notables:

-Here's their top 10:

- Byron Murphy higher than I've seen anyone have him anywhere else - no. 6

- Jerry Tillery higher than I've seen anyone else have him anywhere else - no. 7

- Jeffery Simmons and Greedy Williams make the top 10 too...

- Dalton Risner above Cody Ford and Greg Little

- JJ Arcega Whiteside at 23(higher than I've seen him anywhere else)

- Christian Wilkins at 25... 

- Nasir Adderley and Darnell Savage are their first two safeties(top 30)

- Chase Winovich no. 29... they really like him. High production, high grades, good athleticism...  

- Andy Isabella no. 30 - another one that is higher than I've seen him anywhere else

- David Long - no. 33 ... they think he's the second best press-man specific corner in the draft (after Greedy)

- Noah Fant - no. 43... this seems like lower than I've seen him elsewhere

- Amani Hooker no. 44 - no.4 safety on their board... 

- Montez Sweat no. 46 - lowest I've seen him, I don't get this one.

- Khalen Saunders no. 47... putting it here because we recently had a thread about him. good player iMO

- Rashan Gary no. 48 - lowest I've seen him ranked

- Chauncey Gardner Johnson - no 49... this seems kind of low

- Max Scharping - no. 50... they like him as an OT prospect

- Hjalte Froholdt - 55 - sleeper guard prospect

- Blake Cashman -59 - LB3? 

- Ronheen Bingham 63... higher than i've seen him. 

- Mack Wilason no. 127 ?? Lowest I've seen him

- Parris Campbell at 96... 

- Jachai Polite at 98

- Johnathan Abram 112

- Trayvon Mullen 160 !!

- Lonnie  Johnson 161 !!

 

 

What are your impressions of their board? 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

That looks crazy. But I think a big board can be different then where someone is drafted.

[stitches]

Here's my attempt at a mock draft for the Colts using their board on fanspeak's draft simulator:

 

1: R1P26

DL JEFFERY SIMMONS

MISSISSIPPI STATE

 

2: R2P2

EDGE RASHAN GARY

MICHIGAN

 

3: R2P27

S CHAUNCEY GARDNER-JOHNSON

FLORIDA

 

4: R3P25

WR MILES BOYKIN

NOTRE DAME

 

5: R4P27

Te JACE STERNBERGER

TEXAS A&M

 

6: R4P33

RB DARRELL HENDERSON

MEMPHIS

 

7: R5P26

LB BOBBY OKEREKE

STANFORD

 

8: R6P26

CB KRIS BOYD

TEXAS

 

9: R7P26

WR PENNY HART

GEORGIA STATE

 

14 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

That looks crazy. But I think a big board can be different then where someone is drafted.

This is not a mock draft. It's how they view the prospects. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

12 minutes ago, stitches said:

Here's my attempt at a mock draft for the Colts using their board on fanspeak's draft simulator:

 

1: R1P26

DL JEFFERY SIMMONS

MISSISSIPPI STATE

 

2: R2P2

EDGE RASHAN GARY

MICHIGAN

 

3: R2P27

S CHAUNCEY GARDNER-JOHNSON

FLORIDA

 

4: R3P25

WR MILES BOYKIN

NOTRE DAME

 

5: R4P27

Te JACE STERNBERGER

TEXAS A&M

 

6: R4P33

RB DARRELL HENDERSON

MEMPHIS

 

7: R5P26

LB BOBBY OKEREKE

STANFORD

 

8: R6P26

CB KRIS BOYD

TEXAS

 

9: R7P26

WR PENNY HART

GEORGIA STATE

 

This is not a mock draft. It's how they view the prospects. 

If we got both Gary and Simmons omg. There seems to be a lot of players they think are dropping. I also saw sweat could be dropping because of the heart issue. Some of that might be because other teams want them to drop so they can get them.

[HarryTheCat]

Sweat is dropping due to the discovery (or disclosure) of a previously unreported heart condition. I haven't seen any detail on what condition they're talking about, and how it might affect his ability to play, but he is no longer planning to be in Nashville for the draft. If it's serious enough, he might drop off every team's boards. 

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

Seems like PFF have published their final board for the draft. You can find it here:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-pffs-top-250-big-board-for-the-2019-nfl-draft

 

Some notables:

-Here's their top 10:

- Byron Murphy higher than I've seen anyone have him anywhere else - no. 6

- Jerry Tillery higher than I've seen anyone else have him anywhere else - no. 7

- Jeffery Simmons and Greedy Williams make the top 10 too...

- Dalton Risner above Cody Ford and Greg Little

- JJ Arcega Whiteside at 23(higher than I've seen him anywhere else)

- Christian Wilkins at 25... 

- Nasir Adderley and Darnell Savage are their first two safeties(top 30)

- Chase Winovich no. 29... they really like him. High production, high grades, good athleticism...  

- Andy Isabella no. 30 - another one that is higher than I've seen him anywhere else

- David Long - no. 33 ... they think he's the second best press-man specific corner in the draft (after Greedy)

- Noah Fant - no. 43... this seems like lower than I've seen him elsewhere

- Amani Hooker no. 44 - no.4 safety on their board... 

- Montez Sweat no. 46 - lowest I've seen him, I don't get this one.

- Khalen Saunders no. 47... putting it here because we recently had a thread about him. good player iMO

- Rashan Gary no. 48 - lowest I've seen him ranked

- Chauncey Gardner Johnson - no 49... this seems kind of low

- Max Scharping - no. 50... they like him as an OT prospect

- Hjalte Froholdt - 55 - sleeper guard prospect

- Blake Cashman -59 - LB3? 

- Ronheen Bingham 63... higher than i've seen him. 

- Mack Wilason no. 127 ?? Lowest I've seen him

- Parris Campbell at 96... 

- Jachai Polite at 98

- Johnathan Abram 112

- Trayvon Mullen 160 !!

- Lonnie  Johnson 161 !!

 

 

What are your impressions of their board? 

 

 

I like their work on the NFL level.  But NOT a fan of their on the college level.

 

Is that diplomatic enough?

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

11 minutes ago, HarryTheCat said:

Sweat is dropping due to the discovery (or disclosure) of a previously unreported heart condition. I haven't seen any detail on what condition they're talking about, and how it might affect his ability to play, but he is no longer planning to be in Nashville for the draft. If it's serious enough, he might drop off every team's boards. 

All the he doctors have said it is virtually no risk. But teams are still probably concerned. He was allowed to participate at the combine so the risk is very minimal.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Montez Sweat (cardiomegaly, cause undisclosed)

 

 

Depends upon the team doctor and his comfort level with such a player in that condition.

 

[Yoshinator]

7 hours ago, stitches said:

Seems like PFF have published their final board for the draft. You can find it here:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-pffs-top-250-big-board-for-the-2019-nfl-draft

 

Some notables:

-Here's their top 10:

- Byron Murphy higher than I've seen anyone have him anywhere else - no. 6

- Jerry Tillery higher than I've seen anyone else have him anywhere else - no. 7

- Jeffery Simmons and Greedy Williams make the top 10 too...

- Dalton Risner above Cody Ford and Greg Little

- JJ Arcega Whiteside at 23(higher than I've seen him anywhere else)

- Christian Wilkins at 25... 

- Nasir Adderley and Darnell Savage are their first two safeties(top 30)

- Chase Winovich no. 29... they really like him. High production, high grades, good athleticism...  

- Andy Isabella no. 30 - another one that is higher than I've seen him anywhere else

- David Long - no. 33 ... they think he's the second best press-man specific corner in the draft (after Greedy)

- Noah Fant - no. 43... this seems like lower than I've seen him elsewhere

- Amani Hooker no. 44 - no.4 safety on their board... 

- Montez Sweat no. 46 - lowest I've seen him, I don't get this one.

- Khalen Saunders no. 47... putting it here because we recently had a thread about him. good player iMO

- Rashan Gary no. 48 - lowest I've seen him ranked

- Chauncey Gardner Johnson - no 49... this seems kind of low

- Max Scharping - no. 50... they like him as an OT prospect

- Hjalte Froholdt - 55 - sleeper guard prospect

- Blake Cashman -59 - LB3? 

- Ronheen Bingham 63... higher than i've seen him. 

- Mack Wilason no. 127 ?? Lowest I've seen him

- Parris Campbell at 96... 

- Jachai Polite at 98

- Johnathan Abram 112

- Trayvon Mullen 160 !!

- Lonnie  Johnson 161 !!

 

 

What are your impressions of their board? 

 

If Tillery is there at 26, we should take him. I can see him being the best DT in this class if his heart is in football (which is up to Ballard to decide).

[stitches]

10 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I like their work on the NFL level.  But NOT a fan of their on the college level.

 

Is that diplomatic enough?

 

As far as I know, they use the same process for their NFL evaluations as they do for their college evaluations. 

 

Now the additional component here is the projection, because their NFL grades are descriptive of the performance, while the draft big boards are predictive, which of course adds some uncertainty and projection about the prospects transition into the league. 

 

I would love to see their correlation numbers(but they are not public so...) because they've been introducing some new things into their projections - for example, they've said they've been studying what translates from college to NFL and what doesn't... for example - pass-blocking for OTs seem to translate better than run-blocking ... clean pocket passing translates and is more stable than off-script plays for the QBs, pressures/win%/college grade translate more than sacks for DL, etc. Then you add athleticism to the mix... and things can get murky. 

 

In general my biggest beef with their boards has been that they seem to overemphasize what the player is right now and don't seem to put enough emphasis on developmental upside. Although... as I say that I look at DK Metcalf being their no. 1 ranked WR while sporting a grade of about 70... (while most other projected day 1 and day 2 receivers are in the 80-90 range), so... maybe they've been changing their projections a bit... I don't know. 

 

[wig]

On 4/20/2019 at 12:36 PM, stitches said:

Here's my attempt at a mock draft for the Colts using their board on fanspeak's draft simulator:

 

1: R1P26

DL JEFFERY SIMMONS

MISSISSIPPI STATE

 

2: R2P2

EDGE RASHAN GARY

MICHIGAN

 

3: R2P27

S CHAUNCEY GARDNER-JOHNSON

FLORIDA

 

4: R3P25

WR MILES BOYKIN

NOTRE DAME

 

5: R4P27

Te JACE STERNBERGER

TEXAS A&M

 

6: R4P33

RB DARRELL HENDERSON

MEMPHIS

 

7: R5P26

LB BOBBY OKEREKE

STANFORD

 

8: R6P26

CB KRIS BOYD

TEXAS

 

9: R7P26

WR PENNY HART

GEORGIA STATE

 

This is not a mock draft. It's how they view the prospects. 

 

 

Just did one with their board that I'd be ecstatic about.  4 rounds only. 

 

26: R1P26

DL CHRISTIAN WILKINS

CLEMSON

 

34: R2P2

S DARNELL SAVAGE

MARYLAND

 

59: R2P27

OT KALEB MCGARY

WASHINGTON

 

89: R3P25

WR MILES BOYKIN

NOTRE DAME

 

129: R4P27

Te JACE STERNBERGER

TEXAS A&M

 

135: R4P33

LB MACK WILSON

ALABAMA

[NewColtsFan]

19 hours ago, stitches said:

As far as I know, they use the same process for their NFL evaluations as they do for their college evaluations. 

 

Now the additional component here is the projection, because their NFL grades are descriptive of the performance, while the draft big boards are predictive, which of course adds some uncertainty and projection about the prospects transition into the league. 

 

I would love to see their correlation numbers(but they are not public so...) because they've been introducing some new things into their projections - for example, they've said they've been studying what translates from college to NFL and what doesn't... for example - pass-blocking for OTs seem to translate better than run-blocking ... clean pocket passing translates and is more stable than off-script plays for the QBs, pressures/win%/college grade translate more than sacks for DL, etc. Then you add athleticism to the mix... and things can get murky. 

 

In general my biggest beef with their boards has been that they seem to overemphasize what the player is right now and don't seem to put enough emphasis on developmental upside. Although... as I say that I look at DK Metcalf being their no. 1 ranked WR while sporting a grade of about 70... (while most other projected day 1 and day 2 receivers are in the 80-90 range), so... maybe they've been changing their projections a bit... I don't know. 

 

 

I'm sure you're right....   that they use the same grading system.   But I wonder if they should be?

 

Let me see if I can elaborate....

 

On the NFL level...    it's the best vs. the best.   Grown man vs. grown man.    Every game carries equal weight.    I believe the scores a player gets vs Arizona are just as important as the grades they get vs. New England.    That's my understanding.

 

On the college level,  I believe it's the same.   The grades a Stanford player gets in a game vs. Notre Dame counts just the same as a game vs an opponent that might go 1-11.   All the same.

 

But should it be?    On the college level,  teams have a handful of top level games....  but they also play a number of cup cakes.   And the competition level is highly inferior.   So a good player on the college level can pad grades,  get great grades vs a highly inferior opponent.   I suspect that happens a lot.   Does PFF make any allowances for the difference in the quality of opponents?   If Player A plays in the SEC and Player B plays in a very weak conference (you choose) and they have the same grade at the end of the year --- should they?    Do they adjust for the difficulty of schedule?     I often wonder.     When I see players from smaller schools have high grades, I confess to wondering if that's an appropriate grade?

 

A lot of  what I've written is just Thinking Out Loud...    Perhaps someone will chime in with new information?     But they've got so many question marks for me on this list,  and do every year they'v made a college list,  that I'm left to scratch my head....       

 

p.s. -- I think you alluded to an important point.     Grading a college player on PRODUCTION vs PROJECTION.      What you HAVE done vs. what you MIGHT do.     That's a very difficult aspect and I suspect is often the difference between a good choice and a bust....

 

[wordofmouth]

It scares me seeing all those DT's ranked so high. I am really hoping for that position at either 26 or 34.  That was the missing piece during the Manning years. I don't want to go through that again.

[stitches]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I'm sure you're right....   that they use the same grading system.   But I wonder if they should be?

 

Let me see if I can elaborate....

 

On the NFL level...    it's the best vs. the best.   Grown man vs. grown man.    Every game carries equal weight.    I believe the scores a player gets vs Arizona are just as important as the grades they get vs. New England.    That's my understanding.

 

On the college level,  I believe it's the same.   The grades a Stanford player gets in a game vs. Notre Dame counts just the same as a game vs an opponent that might go 1-11.   All the same.

 

But should it be?    On the college level,  teams have a handful of top level games....  but they also play a number of cup cakes.   And the competition level is highly inferior.   So a good player on the college level can pad grades,  get great grades vs a highly inferior opponent.   I suspect that happens a lot.   Does PFF make any allowances for the difference in the quality of opponents?   If Player A plays in the SEC and Player B plays in a very weak conference (you choose) and they have the same grade at the end of the year --- should they?    Do they adjust for the difficulty of schedule?     I often wonder.     When I see players from smaller schools have high grades, I confess to wondering if that's an appropriate grade?

 

A lot of  what I've written is just Thinking Out Loud...    Perhaps someone will chime in with new information?     But they've got so many question marks for me on this list,  and do every year they'v made a college list,  that I'm left to scratch my head....       

 

p.s. -- I think you alluded to an important point.     Grading a college player on PRODUCTION vs PROJECTION.      What you HAVE done vs. what you MIGHT do.     That's a very difficult aspect and I suspect is often the difference between a good choice and a bust....

In the grade itself they don't take into account the level of competition(just like they don't do it in NFL no matter if your OT has faced Khalil Mack in the game or Tarell Basham). They just evaluate what's happening on the field. I think the place where they do put context on those grades is on their board. For example they have this small school gem Ronheen Bingham from Arkansas State. He blows up in their grading(I think he was the 2nd or 3d highest grade for EDGE rusher they gave this season). The place where they input the level of competition that grade was achieved against is on their big board and thus he's not ranked in the top 10, but rather in the 60s... so even though he was one of the highest graded players for them this season he's a 3d rounder on their board. 

 

I've heard them talk about Andy Isabella and that he always performed well against top opponents(200 yards and 2 TDs vs Georgia, 200 yards and TD vs SFU, 100 and TD vs Boston College, etc)... so I guess they take that into account too when they rank him this high.