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John Hammonds

Drafting for needs in three years

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I'm back from my business conference in Dallas!  Hurrah!

 

Now to my topic:  I think that one of the big principles of drafting is to draft for what your needs will be three years from now.  (Hopefully, your team doesn't suck so badly that its needs this year overshadow everything else!)

So, I though I would lay out what our current team looks like three years from now, regarding age and tenure.  I highlighted all players that will be over 30 years old.  It really gives you a feel for what our needs would be, just from player age and tenure.  Which positions you need to work on, because the current player is approaching the end of his shelf life.

 

QB  Andrew Luck  11 yrs  age 32

RB  Marlon Mack  6 yrs  age 26

WR  TY Hilton  11 yrs  age 32

WR  Devin Funchess  8 yrs  age 27

WR  Dontrell Inman  9 yrs  age 33

WR  Deon Cain  5 yrs  age 25

TE  Jack Doyle  10 yrs  age 31

TE  Eric Ebron  9 yrs  age 29

OT  Anthony Castonzo  12 yrs  age 33

OG  Quentin Nelson  5 yrs  age 26

OC  Ryan Kelly  7 yrs  age 28

OG  Mark Glowinski  8 yrs  age 29

OT  Braden Smith  5 yrs  age 26

DE  Jabaal Sheard  12 yrs  age 32

DT  Margus Hunt  10 yrs  age 34

DT  Denico Autry  9 yrs  age 31

DE  Justin Houston  12 yrs  age 33

DL  Tyquan Lewis  5 yrs  age 27

DT  Jihad Ward  7 yrs  age 27

DE  Kemoko Turay  5 yrs  age 26

LB  Darius Leonard  5 yrs  age 26

LB  Anthony Walker  6 yrs  age 26

LB  Najee Good  11 yrs  age 32 (currently unsigned)

CB  Pierre Desir  9 yrs  age 31

CB  Quincy Wilson  6 yrs  age 25

CB  Jalen Collins  6 yrs  age 29

CB  Kenny Moore  6 yrs  age 26

FS  Malik Hooker  6 yrs  age 26

SS  Clayton Geathers  8 yrs  age 29

SS  Matthias Farley  7 yrs  age 29

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I believe we'll draft D-Line and WR for sure. O-Line depends on who's available IMO. I would personally take a TE and S in this class as well since they are both strong this year.

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 doyle is a FA next year, he needs to have a good season or i doubt he comes back.  i know a lot of people like the guy, but the fact is that hes only had two good seasons and will be 29.  he didnt even hit 250 yards in his third best season 

 

i wouldnt be surprised if TY falls off quickly or if he ages well like reggie did.  

 

the defense has a nice mix of youth and veterans, nothing really jumps off the page there.

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1 hour ago, John Hammonds said:

I'm back from my business conference in Dallas!  Hurrah!

 

Now to my topic:  I think that one of the big principles of drafting is to draft for what your needs will be three years from now.  (Hopefully, your team doesn't suck so badly that its needs this year overshadow everything else!)

So, I though I would lay out what our current team looks like three years from now, regarding age and tenure.  I highlighted all players that will be over 30 years old.  It really gives you a feel for what our needs would be, just from player age and tenure.  Which positions you need to work on, because the current player is approaching the end of his shelf life.

 

QB  Andrew Luck  11 yrs  age 32

RB  Marlon Mack  6 yrs  age 26

WR  TY Hilton  11 yrs  age 32

WR  Devin Funchess  8 yrs  age 27

WR  Dontrell Inman  9 yrs  age 33

WR  Deon Cain  5 yrs  age 25

TE  Jack Doyle  10 yrs  age 31

TE  Eric Ebron  9 yrs  age 29

OT  Anthony Castonzo  12 yrs  age 33

OG  Quentin Nelson  5 yrs  age 26

OC  Ryan Kelly  7 yrs  age 28

OG  Mark Glowinski  8 yrs  age 29

OT  Braden Smith  5 yrs  age 26

DE  Jabaal Sheard  12 yrs  age 32

DT  Margus Hunt  10 yrs  age 34

DT  Denico Autry  9 yrs  age 31

DE  Justin Houston  12 yrs  age 33

DL  Tyquan Lewis  5 yrs  age 27

DT  Jihad Ward  7 yrs  age 27

DE  Kemoko Turay  5 yrs  age 26

LB  Darius Leonard  5 yrs  age 26

LB  Anthony Walker  6 yrs  age 26

LB  Najee Good  11 yrs  age 32 (currently unsigned)

CB  Pierre Desir  9 yrs  age 31

CB  Quincy Wilson  6 yrs  age 25

CB  Jalen Collins  6 yrs  age 29

CB  Kenny Moore  6 yrs  age 26

FS  Malik Hooker  6 yrs  age 26

SS  Clayton Geathers  8 yrs  age 29

SS  Matthias Farley  7 yrs  age 29

This is partially why I think we go heavily DL with at least 2 of our first 3 picks.

 

and you left AV off the list... 

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39 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

 doyle is a FA next year, he needs to have a good season or i doubt he comes back.  i know a lot of people like the guy, but the fact is that hes only had two good seasons and will be 29.  he didnt even hit 250 yards in his third best season 

 

i wouldnt be surprised if TY falls off quickly or if he ages well like reggie did.  

 

the defense has a nice mix of youth and veterans, nothing really jumps off the page there.

That was something else I was considering adding to the matrix, but I just didn't want to spend the time.  Which players are in contract years over the next three years?  How much salary will they command in the market?  And will they be worth it at the time?

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just my quick spitball. 

 

QB  Andrew Luck  11 yrs  age 32 - no worries here... back up drafted next year

RB  Marlon Mack  6 yrs  age 26 - we'll get complimentary back this year or next

WR  TY Hilton  11 yrs  age 32 - injuries last year and age, more reason to go WR early 2019

WR  Devin Funchess  8 yrs  age 27 - major prove it situation. i don't see him hitting his bonus

WR  Dontrell Inman  9 yrs  age 33 - not on roster. might come back depending on draft

WR  Deon Cain  5 yrs  age 25 - could be a #1 or 2, but can't bank on anything yet.

TE  Jack Doyle  10 yrs  age 31 - doubt he'll get a long term deal in 20

TE  Eric Ebron  9 yrs  age 29 - Will get a deal in 20

OT  Anthony Castonzo  12 yrs  age 33 - OT taken early in the next two years

OG  Quentin Nelson  5 yrs  age 26 - unless injured, bank on him retiring with Indy

OC  Ryan Kelly  7 yrs  age 28 - same as above. long term deal sooner than later

OG  Mark Glowinski  8 yrs  age 29 - like him, but he needs to stay healthy

OT  Braden Smith  5 yrs  age 26 - he's long term, could return to guard

DE  Jabaal Sheard  12 yrs  age 32 - could be a casualty sooner than later (not this year)

DT  Margus Hunt  10 yrs  age 34 - as above

DT  Denico Autry  9 yrs  age 31 - as above

DE  Justin Houston  12 yrs  age 33 - if he remains status quo, he'll be resigned short term

DL  Tyquan Lewis  5 yrs  age 27 - could blossom

DT  Jihad Ward  7 yrs  age 27 - wild card. he could go major up or down

DE  Kemoko Turay  5 yrs  age 26 - this is a big season for him. he'll be better cause of Houston

LB  Darius Leonard  5 yrs  age 26 - a healthy year means an even bigger year. long term

LB  Anthony Walker  6 yrs  age 26 - another wild card. 

LB  Najee Good  11 yrs  age 32 (currently unsigned) - not a great position to age at

CB  Pierre Desir  9 yrs  age 31 - he'll have a great 19, but will never sign a better contract

CB  Quincy Wilson  6 yrs  age 25 - wildcard

CB  Jalen Collins  6 yrs  age 29 - don't see him signing again

CB  Kenny Moore  6 yrs  age 26 - he'll surprise this year. could be under the radar POY

FS  Malik Hooker  6 yrs  age 26 - his health will determine everything

SS  Clayton Geathers  8 yrs  age 29 - same as above, but he'll get competition this year.

SS  Matthias Farley  7 yrs  age 29 - he's solid depth if his health holds.

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12 hours ago, aaron11 said:

 doyle is a FA next year, he needs to have a good season or i doubt he comes back.  i know a lot of people like the guy, but the fact is that hes only had two good seasons and will be 29.  he didnt even hit 250 yards in his third best season 

 

i wouldnt be surprised if TY falls off quickly or if he ages well like reggie did.  

 

the defense has a nice mix of youth and veterans, nothing really jumps off the page there.

The bold is a little misleading.  He was injured that season and got that in 6 games.  Doyle isn’t elite in any one area but is very good at everything and a stated favorite of team members.  He was rewarded for that with the recent contract.   I expect him to continue and be back for sure.  

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3 hours ago, Fluke_33 said:

The bold is a little misleading.  He was injured that season and got that in 6 games.  Doyle isn’t elite in any one area but is very good at everything and a stated favorite of team members.  He was rewarded for that with the recent contract.   I expect him to continue and be back for sure.  

Doyle is elite when it comes to catching the football. He is always Luck's safety valve when needed.

Just saying

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Castonzo and Doyle are prime needs to replace in the future. For now, they ballin....

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