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Chloe6124

Ballard mock drafts are way off

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sounds like he's basically saying there are 15 tier 1 (blue chip) guys, and around 45-50 tier 2 (solid starters with good upside) guys through the end of the 2nd (which we have 3 picks in that range). 

 

I'm good with getting three solid tier 2 players, or perhaps one tier 1 if they slide to 26 or 34 (like simmons). 

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41 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

sounds like he's basically saying there are 15 tier 1 (blue chip) guys, and around 45-50 tier 2 (solid starters with good upside) guys through the end of the 2nd (which we have 3 picks in that range). 

 

I'm good with getting three solid tier 2 players, or perhaps one tier 1 if they slide to 26 or 34 (like simmons). 

Yeah I'd be really happy for us to somehow swap that 26th pick for more picks in the 2nd round just to take advantage of that value. Unless someone really slides, I don't see that 5th year option as overly essential. If they turn into a guy like Leonard, you just lock them up early (what I'm expecting with Kelly).

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5 minutes ago, RNGDShobby said:

Yeah I'd be really happy for us to somehow swap that 26th pick for more picks in the 2nd round just to take advantage of that value. Unless someone really slides, I don't see that 5th year option as overly essential. If they turn into a guy like Leonard, you just lock them up early (what I'm expecting with Kelly).

IDK, if we go iDL with 26 on a guy like Tillery, I'd really love to have that 5th year option. If they were to go with an injured guy like Simmons, that 5th year option is really important. 

 

trading the 26 would likely bring a second and a third. if that's the best we could get, i'd keep the 26. if we could get two 2nd rounders (one would need to be early/mid second), then I'd be OK with that. not too many have two second rounders in 2019 to trade, and I really don't want a future 2nd rounder.

 

 

 

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Trading out of the first because there are no players talented enough to go there seems unlikely to me. Not because I think the idea is bad but when you  want to move back because of the talent level why would somebody else want to move up and pay you. If there's a plentitude of players at the position we want i could see a move though.

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48 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

IDK, if we go iDL with 26 on a guy like Tillery, I'd really love to have that 5th year option. If they were to go with an injured guy like Simmons, that 5th year option is really important. 

 

trading the 26 would likely bring a second and a third. if that's the best we could get, i'd keep the 26. if we could get two 2nd rounders (one would need to be early/mid second), then I'd be OK with that. not too many have two second rounders in 2019 to trade, and I really don't want a future 2nd rounder.

 

 

 

A future 2nd would be great, especially if it is from a team like Miami,  or even Cinci.....  There are only so many spots open for contention on any given roster, and less this year than last, less last year than the year before, etc.....

 

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38 minutes ago, Shafty138 said:

 

A future 2nd would be great, especially if it is from a team like Miami,  or even Cinci.....  There are only so many spots open for contention on any given roster, and less this year than last, less last year than the year before, etc.....

 

Not a big fan of futures in our situation. If we were a mature roster, and not in a rebuild, then sure. But we're in year 2 of a 3 year plan. If there's a iDL that we like at 26, we need to take him IMO. I don't see any impact iDLs falling to 34 (except an injured one). 

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To me this says that a trade, both up or back are strong possibilities. If someone he covets drops a bit I think he'll pounce. If not the phone will be very open. 

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It’s also possible that Ballard is saying that the mocks are missing on who he believes are the top tier players. Meaning that he values some players mocked to the late first or early second as top 15 types. 

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51 minutes ago, Hoose said:

It’s also possible that Ballard is saying that the mocks are missing on who he believes are the top tier players. Meaning that he values some players mocked to the late first or early second as top 15 types. 

This is exactly what he is saying.

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When it comes to Ballard's thinking, you have a better shot guessing the lottery. My honest opinion is we'll trade up. I think Ballard wants to get one of these pass rushers in the first round rather thats Sweat, Burns, or Ferrell. If by some miracle any of them get inside the twenties, I can see a trade with the seahawks. The connections are there with Ed Dobbs and they only have 4 picks this year. 

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What does the number of Blue Chippers have to do with the mocks being way off?

 

There are only a number of blue chippers in any draft, not a entire first round full. 

Right?

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25 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

What does the number of Blue Chippers have to do with the mocks being way off?

 

There are only a number of blue chippers in any draft, not a entire first round full. 

Right?

 

What I think they are saying is because the number of blue chippers is small, you could have a guy rated as a late 2nd rounder taken at the end of the 1st round because there is only a few notches of difference in talent level. Thus, mocks based on where someone is rated at end of 2nd round or end of 3rd round can be thrown off when they are drafted at the end of the 1st round or top of 2nd round. 

 

 

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Remember......      Ballard could be saying the 100% truth.

 

OR.....

 

He could also NOT be telling the truth.

 

This is not called the Lying Season in the NFL for nothing......

 

Remember,  a year ago he said teams will find starting guards in the 3rd and 4th round.   And then on Day 2 he said Braden Smith was the last starting caliber guard left on his board.    Was he fibbing?     

 

Things aren't as clear and as obvious as some might think....

 

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From what I've been reading is that NFL people are a lot higher on the offensive line talent in this years draft than the mock draft guys are. I'm hearing Jonah Williams and Taylor could both go top 10 and there could be 7 or 8 first round O-linemen. The Colts may have set a trend last year that teams are looking to follow.

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6 minutes ago, Boiler_Colt said:

From what I've been reading is that NFL people are a lot higher on the offensive line talent in this years draft than the mock draft guys are. I'm hearing Jonah Williams and Taylor could both go top 10 and there could be 7 or 8 first round O-linemen. The Colts may have set a trend last year that teams are looking to follow.

I would be happy with that if that means a guy like Wilkins falls to us at 26.

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To me what Ballard is saying is that this year the "mocks" are "really" wrong.  More wrong than normal.   Mocks predict where the players are taken.  What he sees as being true is there are only 14 ELITE PLAYERS in the draft.  After that the players are fairly consistent through the remainder of the first three rounds.  His statements make sense to me.  The mocks have us staying at 26 and being satisfied with not taking an elite player and hoping one falls.  I'm of the belief that Ballard wants to try and get one of the Elite players instead of staying put at 26.   I don't think it matters what the position is.  It could be an ER or an offensive playmaker.  If he can move up and get one I think he will.  He might not have to make a big jump either.  Seattle at 21 would be the ideal target.  I have a feeling we are moving up this year to get a playmaker.  JMO. 

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Also ballard could think a player is elite while another team doesn’t.  Or another team may think someone is elite and Ballard doesn’t.

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Reading between the lines I think it could mean we trade up OR maybe we trade down OR maybe we stay put at 26?

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7 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

What I think they are saying is because the number of blue chippers is small, you could have a guy rated as a late 2nd rounder taken at the end of the 1st round because there is only a few notches of difference in talent level. Thus, mocks based on where someone is rated at end of 2nd round or end of 3rd round can be thrown off when they are drafted at the end of the 1st round or top of 2nd round. 

 

 

 

What is about the average amount of 'blue chippers' in a draft?

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1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

Also ballard could think a player is elite while another team doesn’t.  Or another team may think someone is elite and Ballard doesn’t.

 These are professional coaches, scouts and GM's.  They do this for a living.  I think they should be able to determine who is elite regardless of position.  Character issues or injury worries can move people up down or off boards.  But elite physical talents should be apparent to these coaches and scouts.  My guess is that these teams know pretty much who the elite players are.  With 32 teams doing the analysis there will certainly be some differences in grading.  But if Ballard says 14 my guess he is right there with the rest of the teams give or take a player or two.  

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Is Darius Leonard elite?  Nobody else thought he was.  So we might grt an elite player by staying put .

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8 minutes ago, LockeDown said:

Is Darius Leonard elite?  Nobody else thought he was.  So we might grt an elite player by staying put .

True.  The God's were good to us that day.

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21 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

Reading between the lines I think it could mean we trade up OR maybe we trade down OR maybe we stay put at 26?

Brilliant!

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On 4/11/2019 at 5:50 PM, Chloe6124 said:

 

 

Who the hell is Chris Ballard!!?? <<<sips Vodka Collins>>> :cheers:

 

tobin.jpg

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