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1 hour ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

 

Look in on the background in this shot from 2015-

 

1080_231f1fcc-9551-4273-bd6f-ee7a5e08497

 

 

While this two dimensional system may be (or have been) useful for a coarse, pre-draft rating of "the board", come draft day the values and probabilities will change dramatically by the prior picks. That's called combinatorics (in a Markov Chain). The problem then becomes multi-dimensional, and probably beyond any human brain to recalculate the optimum tactics.

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25 minutes ago, CoachLite said:

While this two dimensional system may be (or have been) useful for a coarse, pre-draft rating of "the board", come draft day the values and probabilities will change dramatically by the prior picks. That's called combinatorics (in a Markov Chain). The problem then becomes multi-dimensional, and probably beyond any human brain to recalculate the optimum tactics.

 

This is a good explanation for why you need a big board with all likely to be drafted players + your own more limited board with your team's 150-170 draft targets. If you only operate from your limited board, you might be slow to recognize position-specific runs that have impacted the values and probabilities. There might be a point where five corners have come off within 20 picks, but only two of them were on your team's board. If you aren't paying attention to the flow of the draft, you might miss something.

 

Ballard mentioned something similar to this after drafting Braden Smith. His comment was that they felt Smith was the last starting caliber OL still on the board, and the impression was that the way the draft was progressing influenced their opinion of Smith's value. Some have assumed that means they reached for Smith, but it could be that Smith was one of a group of players they were considering with that pick, and the fact that five of the previous 17 picks were OL convinced them that Smith wouldn't last. 

 

Maybe they had Turay ranked similarly to Smith, but after Davenport was drafted at #14, there were no other edge players taken. So that may have influenced their thinking about whether Turay would still be available later in the second round. 

 

And this is all just conjecture on my part. But it's about reading the flow of the draft and having a dynamic strategy as the draft unfolds.

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2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

There might be a point where five corners have come off within 20 picks, but only two of them were on your team's board. If you aren't paying attention to the flow of the draft, you might miss something.

 

This is the point in the conversation where we might ask: How does the Colts front office "see" things in potential players that other teams miss? The explanation of "having superpowers" doesn't cut it.

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11 hours ago, CoachLite said:

 

It's probably not a SQL database. That's sooo last century. It's much more sophisticated than that.

SQL has been around for a long time, but it is still the most widely used (probably by a very large margin) of the relational MSs. They could be using Oracle or IBM, but I doubt it. Doubt they are using any of the smaller DBMS for core data. 

While I think the NFL is cutting edge in FB technology, they may still be playing on older DBMS.

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2 hours ago, CoachLite said:

This is the point in the conversation where we might ask: How does the Colts front office "see" things in potential players that other teams miss? The explanation of "having superpowers" doesn't cut it.

 

I don't think they necessarily do. Something about the draft that we all know but probably don't acknowledge enough is that hitting on a draft pick is partly about getting to the player first. 

 

Like Leonard. Obviously the Colts liked him a lot, and maybe they believed in his speed even though he was injured at the combine, and maybe they valued his length more than other teams, but they probably weren't the only team high on him. They just happened to have two high second round picks, so their draft capital put them in position to take him where they did. It doesn't necessarily mean they saw something in him that other teams missed.

 

I think the way teams value specific traits and metrics can vary, based on coaching schemes and other variables, but I don't think any team has unlocked the key to finding good players more effectively than other teams. I do think some teams have better draft strategy than others, and valuing picks has something to do with that.

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39 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't think they necessarily do. Something about the draft that we all know but probably don't acknowledge enough is that hitting on a draft pick is partly about getting to the player first. 

 

Like Leonard. Obviously the Colts liked him a lot, and maybe they believed in his speed even though he was injured at the combine, and maybe they valued his length more than other teams, but they probably weren't the only team high on him. They just happened to have two high second round picks, so their draft capital put them in position to take him where they did. It doesn't necessarily mean they saw something in him that other teams missed.

 

I think the way teams value specific traits and metrics can vary, based on coaching schemes and other variables, but I don't think any team has unlocked the key to finding good players more effectively than other teams. I do think some teams have better draft strategy than others, and valuing picks has something to do with that.

While I loved Leonard, and ecstatic we got him, I was surprised the Colts took him at 36. Most big boards had him outside the top 80, some outside the top 100. Mayock had him at 87... 

 

Just goes to show 1) Ballard doesn't give a sheet what others say, and 2) the experts whiff a lot.

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7 hours ago, CoachLite said:

While this two dimensional system may be (or have been) useful for a coarse, pre-draft rating of "the board", come draft day the values and probabilities will change dramatically by the prior picks. That's called combinatorics (in a Markov Chain). The problem then becomes multi-dimensional, and probably beyond any human brain to recalculate the optimum tactics.

Yes, but you might have missed where I said this in the post...

 

"There are more (different layout) boards around the room too."

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6 hours ago, Superman said:

Some have assumed that means they reached for Smith, but it could be that Smith was one of a group of players they were considering with that pick, and the fact that five of the previous 17 picks were OL convinced them that Smith wouldn't last

 

This is the correct explanation, IMHO.

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11 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

SQL has been around for a long time, but it is still the most widely used (probably by a very large margin) of the relational MSs. They could be using Oracle or IBM, but I doubt it. Doubt they are using any of the smaller DBMS for core data. 

While I think the NFL is cutting edge in FB technology, they may still be playing on older DBMS.

Check out NoSQL - a class of (network) graph databases, such as MongoDB for example. These are better at recalculating the combinatorics of Markov Chains when the structure of the data changes substantially in short time frames.

 

Here's one aspect of "the problem space": What are the effects of new information on previously stored information? These are so-called Bayesian Inference Problems. It's not your father's football anymore - it's become a sophisticated, big business.

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10 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

Yes, but you might have missed where I said this in the post...

 

"There are more (different layout) boards around the room too."

The point I was making is that "a board" - such as written on a whiteboard - is a rather static data structure, no matter how many of them you have. This is OK for snapshots at a particular point in time (say right before the draft). But during the draft, everything is changing, including potential future player trajectories that affect your strategy and tactics. When it comes time to evaluate and refine models of your draft strategy, this information is critical (see Inverse Theory if you're a data nerd who plays fantasy football). 

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1 hour ago, CoachLite said:

Check out NoSQL - a class of (network) graph databases, such as MongoDB for example. These are better at recalculating the combinatorics of Markov Chains when the structure of the data changes substantially in short time frames.

 

Here's one aspect of "the problem space": What are the effects of new information on previously stored information? These are so-called Bayesian Inference Problems. It's not your father's football anymore - it's become a sophisticated, big business.

I'm familiar with Mongo and other Doc Stores. I'm not a DB guy, but have managed plenty, and have several buds that are deep into all the fun. It's been 2 years since I had to manage a group going through a design having to do with DBing, but the last (work flow management tool with dispatch and other intricacies) project we ended up going with SQL due to security concerns. A few of my bud love Mongo specifically though. 

 

It'd be fun to know what the Colts use. I'd bet on SQL or IBM. May not be my father's NFL anymore, but most of the owners of the teams are older than my father :-)

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2 hours ago, CoachLite said:

Check out NoSQL - a class of (network) graph databases, such as MongoDB for example. These are better at recalculating the combinatorics of Markov Chains when the structure of the data changes substantially in short time frames.

 

Here's one aspect of "the problem space": What are the effects of new information on previously stored information? These are so-called Bayesian Inference Problems. It's not your father's football anymore - it's become a sophisticated, big business.

 

1 hour ago, Irish YJ said:

I'm familiar with Mongo and other Doc Stores. I'm not a DB guy, but have managed plenty, and have several buds that are deep into all the fun. It's been 2 years since I had to manage a group going through a design having to do with DBing, but the last (work flow management tool with dispatch and other intricacies) project we ended up going with SQL due to security concerns. A few of my bud love Mongo specifically though. 

 

It'd be fun to know what the Colts use. I'd bet on SQL or IBM. May not be my father's NFL anymore, but most of the owners of the teams are older than my father :-)

 

matt leblanc joey GIF

 

(I feel like the dumbest person in the room right now)

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21 hours ago, CoachLite said:

While this two dimensional system may be (or have been) useful for a coarse, pre-draft rating of "the board", come draft day the values and probabilities will change dramatically by the prior picks. That's called combinatorics (in a Markov Chain). The problem then becomes multi-dimensional, and probably beyond any human brain to recalculate the optimum tactics.

 

20 hours ago, Superman said:

 

This is a good explanation for why you need a big board with all likely to be drafted players + your own more limited board with your team's 150-170 draft targets. If you only operate from your limited board, you might be slow to recognize position-specific runs that have impacted the values and probabilities. There might be a point where five corners have come off within 20 picks, but only two of them were on your team's board. If you aren't paying attention to the flow of the draft, you might miss something.

 

Ballard mentioned something similar to this after drafting Braden Smith. His comment was that they felt Smith was the last starting caliber OL still on the board, and the impression was that the way the draft was progressing influenced their opinion of Smith's value. Some have assumed that means they reached for Smith, but it could be that Smith was one of a group of players they were considering with that pick, and the fact that five of the previous 17 picks were OL convinced them that Smith wouldn't last. 

 

Maybe they had Turay ranked similarly to Smith, but after Davenport was drafted at #14, there were no other edge players taken. So that may have influenced their thinking about whether Turay would still be available later in the second round. 

 

And this is all just conjecture on my part. But it's about reading the flow of the draft and having a dynamic strategy as the draft unfolds.

 

I wonder if they have some software running in the background during the draft that alert them for things like - runs on players, possible trade targets, probabilities of certain players falling to certain picks, etc. ? 

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1 hour ago, stitches said:

 

 

I wonder if they have some software running in the background during the draft that alert them for things like - runs on players, possible trade targets, probabilities of certain players falling to certain picks, etc. ? 

I'd bet they have geeks updating their DB (with a pretty good visual interface) and assistants updating their visual old school boards all at the same time.

 

The Braden Smith case kind of confirms to me that they are willing to prioritize need and reach a little at position. Sounds like they prioritized OL and likely reached past potentially BPA at other positions. All in all, sounds like they had a plan with priorities, and the potential rush caused them to react. 

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11 hours ago, CoachLite said:

The point I was making is that "a board" - such as written on a whiteboard - is a rather static data structure, no matter how many of them you have. This is OK for snapshots at a particular point in time (say right before the draft). But during the draft, everything is changing, including potential future player trajectories that affect your strategy and tactics. When it comes time to evaluate and refine models of your draft strategy, this information is critical (see Inverse Theory if you're a data nerd who plays fantasy football). 

 

7 hours ago, stitches said:

 

 

I wonder if they have some software running in the background during the draft that alert them for things like - runs on players, possible trade targets, probabilities of certain players falling to certain picks, etc. ? 

 

Well...

 

6 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

I'd bet they have geeks updating their DB (with a pretty good visual interface) and assistants updating their visual old school boards all at the same time.

 

This.  As a name gets peeled off the board, the name plate and drafting team plate, get placed in the position row of another board by round.  It is easy to see names stacking up quickly at a single position on such board, by anyone, all around the room.  Who knows, they may have 65" or > ultra 4k monitors with snazzy graphics and metric around the room too, and not just the NFL Network showing the announcements of draft choices.

 

Quote

The Braden Smith case kind of confirms to me that they are willing to prioritize need and reach a little at position. Sounds like they prioritized OL and likely reached past potentially BPA at other positions. All in all, sounds like they had a plan with priorities, and the potential rush caused them to react. 

 

I do think they will do this in cases where there remaining selections are in a tight group.  One player slightly graded a touch lower, but at a higher position need and/or where there is a shortfall of prospects should and would get preferential treatment.  Some might say reach, others would say 'getting your guy'.  (because if you pass now, he may be long gone before your next shot at him).

 

But if there is a guy sticking notably up above over the others, that is BPA.  And if he is not chosen, the GM didn't stay true to the board.  Or they scouted/valued players incorrectly and compromised their board. Neither of which is good.

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21 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

I'd bet they have geeks updating their DB (with a pretty good visual interface) and assistants updating their visual old school boards all at the same time.

 

The Braden Smith case kind of confirms to me that they are willing to prioritize need and reach a little at position. Sounds like they prioritized OL and likely reached past potentially BPA at other positions. All in all, sounds like they had a plan with priorities, and the potential rush caused them to react. 

 

That conclusion relies on the assumption that they had other players graded ahead of Smith, which we'll never be able to confirm. I don't think that's an assumption that needs to be made in this case, though. They could have had a few players in the mix, Smith being one of them, and they went with him because their analysis suggested Smith wouldn't last until #49, but one of their other options (maybe Turay?) would. 

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On 4/21/2019 at 12:37 PM, stitches said:

 

 

I wonder if they have some software running in the background during the draft that alert them for things like - runs on players, possible trade targets, probabilities of certain players falling to certain picks, etc. ? 

 

It sounds to me like they have analytics guys doing some baseline work, but my impression is the rest of the process isn't really all that sophisticated.  

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On 4/21/2019 at 9:37 AM, stitches said:

I wonder if they have some software running in the background during the draft that alert them for things like - runs on players, possible trade targets, probabilities of certain players falling to certain picks, etc. ? 

 

I don't know how to do it, but I'm pretty sure they can create an aggregate big board with a bunch of different boards, mocks, variables, etc., and track the trends from that board as the draft unfurls. TDN has a predictive big board that their mock machine is based on. It can't be that hard.

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11 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't know how to do it, but I'm pretty sure they can create an aggregate big board with a bunch of different boards, mocks, variables, etc., and track the trends from that board as the draft unfurls. TDN has a predictive big board that their mock machine is based on. It can't be that hard.

I don't like how any of the available simulators do it. They all use a single board for all teams and as we know this is not how the draft works... different teams have different boards and they draft by them while factoring in needs to some extent. 

 

I wanted to make a different type of simulator myself, but didn't have the time this year. I think I will make one for next year and I will take different boards and assign them to different teams and this way you could get more representative way of how the draft would unfold. Ideally you would have some approximation for a board for all different teams. For example, if you know that a team runs zone blocking scheme predominantly you bump up all zone blocking OLinemen and you drop all the power blocking OLinement for this team's specific board... If they run press-man defense you bump up the best press-corners and you drop all the off-man zone corners for this team's specific board.. .etc. You get the idea. Get somewhat personalized boards for every team depending on what they run and how they play.

 

It won't be perfect but I feel like it might give you better idea of how teams would draft and IMO it will give you better prediction of what the chance is that certain players drop to certain positions. 

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14 minutes ago, stitches said:

I don't like how any of the available simulators do it. They all use a single board for all teams and as we know this is not how the draft works... different teams have different boards and they draft by them while factoring in needs to some extent. 

 

I wanted to make a different type of simulator myself, but didn't have the time this year. I think I will make one for next year and I will take different boards and assign them to different teams and this way you could get more representative way of how the draft would unfold. Ideally you would have some approximation for a board for all different teams. For example, if you know that a team runs zone blocking scheme predominantly you bump up all zone blocking OLinemen and you drop all the power blocking OLinement for this team's specific board... If they run press-man defense you bump up the best press-corners and you drop all the off-man zone corners for this team's specific board.. .etc. You get the idea. Get somewhat personalized boards for every team depending on what they run and how they play. It won't be perfect but I feel like it might give you better idea of how teams would draft. 

 

I wasn't thinking about the team-specific boards, but that would be a factor as well. I'm not sure how I'd weight it.

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I don't like to insult your perspicacity guys , but you might be overthinking everything to a point.  If you use a layman's terms, it's like an analogy  from star trek, It's great to be so analytical, but this is the  voice of being Spock .  Captain Kirks human side, saying you need to go with your gut without overthinking to much. This is the human side of the NFL not everything is going to work out on paper like you think it will. If it did then all we would need is some egghead's view and that would be the criteria of how we draft. 

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4 hours ago, horseshoecrabs said:

I don't like to insult your perspicacity guys , but you might be overthinking everything to a point.  If you use a layman's terms, it's like an analogy  from star trek, It's great to be so analytical, but this is the  voice of being Spock .  Captain Kirks human side, saying you need to go with your gut without overthinking to much. This is the human side of the NFL not everything is going to work out on paper like you think it will. If it did then all we would need is some egghead's view and that would be the criteria of how we draft. 

 

We're overthinking it because our ideas ultimately don't matter, whether teams are using them or not. 

 

But the concept of teams reading the flow of the draft and valuing prospects based on how the draft is going is not overly analytical. It's a basic part of the process.

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On 4/22/2019 at 11:21 AM, Superman said:

 

That conclusion relies on the assumption that they had other players graded ahead of Smith, which we'll never be able to confirm. I don't think that's an assumption that needs to be made in this case, though. They could have had a few players in the mix, Smith being one of them, and they went with him because their analysis suggested Smith wouldn't last until #49, but one of their other options (maybe Turay?) would. 

maybe. we'll likely never know though unless they tell us. i think though just the way they framed it led me to believe they were hoping to get him later, which means there was probably someone they wanted earlier (but not as much as Smith).

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Just saw the new “With the next pick” it’s killing me with all the teasers about the different players.  Got my adrenaline pumping overtime waiting for tomorrow.  Then the 4+ hour wait for our pick.  How I miss the old days of rounds 1-3 on Saturday and 4-7 on Sunday.

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It would be cool of they put all the videos together and put the cut scenes in too to see who were they talking about and who they had there eyes on and stuff!  That would would def show us how they think

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I thought some of the comments were kind of obvious who they were talking about. They were talking about straight line speed then mentioned the player being small. That had to be marquis brown.

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56 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I thought some of the comments were kind of obvious who they were talking about. They were talking about straight line speed then mentioned the player being small. That had to be marquis brown.

Things is when two different guys are making their comments are they talking about the same player.  The production crew might be using snippets of different players.  Only the people in the room know for sure.

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3 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

I thought some of the comments were kind of obvious who they were talking about. They were talking about straight line speed then mentioned the player being small. That had to be marquis brown.

 

I thought the small part applied to Hollywood Brown, but not the straight line speed part. And I viewed those as different comments about different players, made by different people.

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Nick Sirianni sporting a Pacers shirt!!

 

Another fantastic episode!!!  The real deal starts tonight!

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Colts Productions 5.0  "The Colts are on the Clock" is officially out and it's officially GREAT!

 

This is the peek behind the curtains.   See what the Colts War Room looks like and acts like.

 

Also, you'll see on wall all around the room,  there is board after board after board.   Ranking players in every way, shape and form.    You can't tell the names,  don't even try,  but you get an appreication for how they try to cross every "T" and dot ever "i"

 

Oh,  and it's nearly 20 minutes of pure draft GOLD!

 

Enjoy!

 

https://www.colts.com/video/with-the-next-pick-the-colts-are-on-the-clock

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That was so good. I feel like a * though. I didn’t realize they didn’t have draft rooms in Nashville. I didn’t realize teams stayed at home. I feel stupid lol.

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Freaking awesome.  Loved it when coach was going around the room high fiven all the guys

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That was awesome to see. 4 for 4 baby. Good stinkin’ job Colts and Colts Productions.

 

(I really love Frank Reich.)

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Forgot to add.  Wish we could have seen more on the EJ Speed selection.  He's a mystery to me.

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This was so good. Amazing to see how it all works in there. Would have been interested to see a bit more of the calls they got about 34. And the trade with the Browns and Raiders. But that was awesome.

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On 4/22/2019 at 7:45 PM, Superman said:

 

We're overthinking it because our ideas ultimately don't matter, whether teams are using them or not. 

 

But the concept of teams reading the flow of the draft and valuing prospects based on how the draft is going is not overly analytical. It's a basic part of the process.

 

It wouldn't take much for someone reasonably skilled to weigh likelihood of picks based on historical results and team needs. It wouldn't be good for a mock but could give reasonable insight into the odds of say someone being there at 34 if we trade out of 26.  Would probably take me a few months to create something I'd be comfortable with that would give a range of probability. 

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1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Colts Productions 5.0  "The Colts are on the Clock" is officially out and it's officially GREAT!

 

This is the peek behind the curtains.   See what the Colts War Room looks like and acts like.

 

Also, you'll see on wall all around the room,  there is board after board after board.   Ranking players in every way, shape and form.    You can't tell the names,  don't even try,  but you get an appreication for how they try to cross every "T" and dot ever "i"

 

Oh,  and it's nearly 20 minutes of pure draft GOLD!

 

Enjoy!

 

https://www.colts.com/video/with-the-next-pick-the-colts-are-on-the-clock

Man, you certainly are right and it was funny him hanging up on Dorsey..lol I loved it and I'm a huge fan of Ballards this team is in great hands I want Ballard to be with the Colts for a long time to come and he's young enough where he can be here for a long time. I also love the excitement they had. 

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How can you not feel so fortunate in having this front office and coaching staff.

 

Good stuff

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This was absolutely fascinating. What a payoff! (First Avengers, now this! lol) Almost 20 minutes of draft day stuff, and they really captured the focus and intensity in the draft room, and they showed how poised everyone is. This was really well done.

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