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DougDew

DougDew's Mock 1.0

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'Tis the season.  I'll stab at it.  First, I'll explain some context. 

 

The mock is based upon trying to fill needs with players that fall within a range of value, especially the first few rounds.  A draft has to fit within an overall plan, and given the salary cap, inevitable contract expiration's, and the reality that you can't be in rebuilding mode forever (unless you're the Browns), players selected in the early rounds need to get on the field sooner rather than later.  In order to do that, there has to be a spot for them, a bit of a hole in the roster.   

 

Personally, I go for players who I think will be sure-thing NFL players, and not so much trying to find that all-pro home run.

 

Also, I think Ballard has made some moves this off season filling holes, with other holes being left for the draft and later.  So my mock also looks at what Ballard has done so far.

 

The players were selected based on me summarizing their evaluations and BPAs taken from various pundit websites.  I don't watch tape.

 

26. Dexter Lawrence DT, Clemson.  We're drafting too low to get a 3 down disruptive EDGE, as all EDGEs available at 26 have some weaknesses or may not even have a first round grade.  Lawrence is a solid player and can be disruptive, but also presents fatigue concerns at 340 pounds.  He will start day 1 and will fit into the rotation nicely at the NT spot, which has not been addressed much this offseason.    A definite upgrade from last season.

 

34.  AJBrown WR, Ole Miss.  Its either him or Deebo Samuel, but Brown is the more polished receiver at this point.  He's known as a clean route runner, good hands, and YAC.  I'll be kicking myself if Deebo turns into the next Edelman for some team, but Brown is a definite upgrade over what we had last year and seems to be the safer pick, IMO.  Will start day 1 in the slot in a 3 WR set and possibly see time outside as the season moves on.  Definite upgrade from last season, and won't seem to step on Funchess' role.  

 

59. Amani Hooker S, Iowa.  Iowa runs the 43 zone defense and Hooker is a natural for the SS spot, so he'll start day 1.  In our defense, Malik Hooker seems to fit as the deep fielder and Geathers as the in-the-box S/LB hybrid in a 3 S defense.  Amani's known for identifying underneath routes and breaking on them quickly, so he is the perfect SS for complimenting what Malik and Geathers will be doing.  Definite upgrade from SS last season, and a position that has not been addressed so far.

 

89. Joe Jackson LDE, Miami Hurricanes.  Not a pure edge pass rusher, but more of an overall 43 DE in the mold of Jabal Sheard. I don't believe the roster has this guy, considering Lewis and Autry are being called the 3-techs.   Should begin to see more PT as the season moves on, but Houston and Turay will be the EDGE guys on obvious passing downs, IMO.

 

129.  Foster Moreaux TE, LSU.  A strong run and pass blocker.  Underrated as a receiver, but not much production in the passing game in college to get drafted early.   Takes over for Doyle after this year and likely sees a lot of PT as the season progresses. 

 

135.  Dennis Daley G/OT, South Carolina.  OL swingman to pair with Haeg, but with more upside at this point.  Solid depth.

 

164. LJ Scott, RB MSU.  Injuries limited his 2018 production but he is considered a better talent and prospect than this spot.  Built like and runs like Wilkins, only better.

 

199.  Cody Thompson, WR Toledo.  Solid hands and routes.  Bigger, faster, and more athletic than you might think.  

 

240.  BPA.

 

 

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I want a lil more than a "solid player" with a first round pick.

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8 minutes ago, BOTT said:

I want a lil more than a "solid player" with a first round pick.

I tend to agree, and AJ Brown might be that player.  Or Tillery.  Its a guess based on who is available all the way down at 26.

 

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Peopale underrate Lawrence's pass rush ability he did put up 7 sacks as a freshman. I really like the first 3 picks, I prefer Deebo but not by much, and Hooker would be great value and would be a nice 3rd S

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Man it seems like we’re all pretty much on the same page with most of the picks. I like this draft. Brown is my favorite receiver in this draft, and Amani Hooker is very underrated. There’s a lot of good value at each pick. Nice job.

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4 hours ago, BOTT said:

I want a lil more than a "solid player" with a first round pick.

yeah this Lawrence talk is starting to bother me last thing I want in the 1st is a fat run stuffer 

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Yes on the Toledo Rocket...they have had good wrs for a couple of years now.

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My thinking with the Lawrence pick is that he is a disruptive player in both the run and pasing games, and must be double teamed, IMO, unlike Grover and Hunt who don't always have to be.  What bumps Lawrence down a notch is the fatigue factor and weight, so he's not going to be in all downs every series.  But Elberfus seems to rotate players anyway to keep them fresh, so I don't think DLs weaknesses really hurts us much.

 

Besides, Both Hooker and Kelly have been nothing more than solid players, IMO, and nobody really complains about taking them at 15 and 18.

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9 hours ago, DougDew said:

My thinking with the Lawrence pick is that he is a disruptive player in both the run and pasing games, and must be double teamed, IMO, unlike Grover and Hunt who don't always have to be.  What bumps Lawrence down a notch is the fatigue factor and weight, so he's not going to be in all downs every series.  But Elberfus seems to rotate players anyway to keep them fresh, so I don't think DLs weaknesses really hurts us much.

 

Besides, Both Hooker and Kelly have been nothing more than solid players, IMO, and nobody really complains about taking them at 15 and 18.

Kelly is one of the top C's in the league when healthy if he can stay healthy is a bigger question I am just happy Grigson picked a guy whose still on the roster and has a shot at a second contract. That's a feat in itself. 

 

Hooker was off to a very good start then he too was injured. He's a valuable piece to the D no question I think he may live up to his draft status beginning this year It's the first off season he hasn't been rehabbing and only the start of year 3 for him. 

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35 minutes ago, akcolt said:

Kelly is one of the top C's in the league when healthy if he can stay healthy is a bigger question I am just happy Grigson picked a guy whose still on the roster and has a shot at a second contract. That's a feat in itself. 

 

Hooker was off to a very good start then he too was injured. He's a valuable piece to the D no question I think he may live up to his draft status beginning this year It's the first off season he hasn't been rehabbing and only the start of year 3 for him. 

Well, the thought that either would be impactful despite their relatively low positional value was not shared by a large percentage of the forum, especially since we changed both defensive coverage and OL blocking philosophies since both were drafted.  I guess with the injuries we'll never truly know, so anybody can continue to find a basis for validating whichever opinion they had.  I'm happy, because they are steady players, which is more important than swinging for the all-pro fences, IMO.  Sometimes you just have to rely on luck to get that all pro ILB in the second round or that edge rusher in the 5th (Mathis).  Maybe Amani Hooker will be that guy, if we draft him.

 

If Lawrence can command a double team when he is in, or can push a guard into the QB on a three step pass play on a frequent basis then he becomes pretty impactful, IMO.  I'm certainly not advocating the Colts pick him as my first choice, I'm simply basing my guess on what players will likely be available, what roster holes have not yet been addressed, and what positions have young developmental players waiting to take over. 

 

If we started the season with Hunt/Stewart and Autry/Lewis as our DTs, which is our current situation, it may be the worse group of DTs we've ever had to start any season that I can remember, including the Polian years.  If Wilkins is there at 26, maybe he should be the pick.   

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4 hours ago, DougDew said:

Well, the thought that either would be impactful despite their relatively low positional value was not shared by a large percentage of the forum, especially since we changed both defensive coverage and OL blocking philosophies since both were drafted.  I guess with the injuries we'll never truly know, so anybody can continue to find a basis for validating whichever opinion they had.  I'm happy, because they are steady players, which is more important than swinging for the all-pro fences, IMO.  Sometimes you just have to rely on luck to get that all pro ILB in the second round or that edge rusher in the 5th (Mathis).  Maybe Amani Hooker will be that guy, if we draft him.

 

If Lawrence can command a double team when he is in, or can push a guard into the QB on a three step pass play on a frequent basis then he becomes pretty impactful, IMO.  I'm certainly not advocating the Colts pick him as my first choice, I'm simply basing my guess on what players will likely be available, what roster holes have not yet been addressed, and what positions have young developmental players waiting to take over. 

 

If we started the season with Hunt/Stewart and Autry/Lewis as our DTs, which is our current situation, it may be the worse group of DTs we've ever had to start any season that I can remember, including the Polian years.  If Wilkins is there at 26, maybe he should be the pick.   

 

There is still Ridgeway and Ward as well. I still say Ward is going to be our starting 3T. I'm starting to warm up to Lawrence, and I agree with what some others have said, I think he needs to be in the 320's and not the 340's. I think he and Ward would be a heckuva tandem inside. 

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12 hours ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

There is still Ridgeway and Ward as well. I still say Ward is going to be our starting 3T. I'm starting to warm up to Lawrence, and I agree with what some others have said, I think he needs to be in the 320's and not the 340's. I think he and Ward would be a heckuva tandem inside. 

I think Ridgeway is gone and I can't see Ward being considered a sure upgrade to Autry.  I have to think that when Ballard said that Lewis will play the 3, he meant strictly in pass rush packages, not every down.

 

I probably prefer Wilkins or Tillery to Lawrence since all three have some mass to them, but mock drafts are partly based upon who will be available and I don't think the other guys will be.  I think we need some weight in the DL as opposed to another light-ish 3 T type like Jones or some others.  Even if they would be good value at 34 or 59, we simply can't have an oversupply of  quality light 3Ts on the offseason roster when you've got a 53 man limit come September.  So we've got to take a quality heavy guy early and look for value at the other positions at 34 and 59, IMO.  And Hooker may be Ballard's #1 safety on the board considering how well his skills match our scheme fit and other safties skills, but he won't take him at 26, so that pick can be used to get value at another position, like DT.

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On 4/2/2019 at 6:08 PM, BOTT said:

I want a lil more than a "solid player" with a first round pick.

 

This is the 26th pick, not the 3rd or 6th pick.

 

You better get used to drafting in the bottom of the 1st round! :rock:

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5 minutes ago, BigQungus said:

 

This is the 26th pick, not the 3rd or 6th pick.

 

You better get used to drafting in the bottom of the 1st round! :rock:

 

true....the colts drafted Darius Leonard in the 2nd last year.  If anyone epitomizes "solid", it's DL.......

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On 4/2/2019 at 4:03 PM, DougDew said:

'Tis the season.  I'll stab at it.  First, I'll explain some context. 

 

The mock is based upon trying to fill needs with players that fall within a range of value, especially the first few rounds.  A draft has to fit within an overall plan, and given the salary cap, inevitable contract expiration's, and the reality that you can't be in rebuilding mode forever (unless you're the Browns), players selected in the early rounds need to get on the field sooner rather than later.  In order to do that, there has to be a spot for them, a bit of a hole in the roster.   

 

Personally, I go for players who I think will be sure-thing NFL players, and not so much trying to find that all-pro home run.

 

Also, I think Ballard has made some moves this off season filling holes, with other holes being left for the draft and later.  So my mock also looks at what Ballard has done so far.

 

The players were selected based on me summarizing their evaluations and BPAs taken from various pundit websites.  I don't watch tape.

 

26. Dexter Lawrence DT, Clemson.  We're drafting too low to get a 3 down disruptive EDGE, as all EDGEs available at 26 have some weaknesses or may not even have a first round grade.  Lawrence is a solid player and can be disruptive, but also presents fatigue concerns at 340 pounds.  He will start day 1 and will fit into the rotation nicely at the NT spot, which has not been addressed much this offseason.    A definite upgrade from last season.

 

34.  AJBrown WR, Ole Miss.  Its either him or Deebo Samuel, but Brown is the more polished receiver at this point.  He's known as a clean route runner, good hands, and YAC.  I'll be kicking myself if Deebo turns into the next Edelman for some team, but Brown is a definite upgrade over what we had last year and seems to be the safer pick, IMO.  Will start day 1 in the slot in a 3 WR set and possibly see time outside as the season moves on.  Definite upgrade from last season, and won't seem to step on Funchess' role.  

 

59. Amani Hooker S, Iowa.  Iowa runs the 43 zone defense and Hooker is a natural for the SS spot, so he'll start day 1.  In our defense, Malik Hooker seems to fit as the deep fielder and Geathers as the in-the-box S/LB hybrid in a 3 S defense.  Amani's known for identifying underneath routes and breaking on them quickly, so he is the perfect SS for complimenting what Malik and Geathers will be doing.  Definite upgrade from SS last season, and a position that has not been addressed so far.

 

89. Joe Jackson LDE, Miami Hurricanes.  Not a pure edge pass rusher, but more of an overall 43 DE in the mold of Jabal Sheard. I don't believe the roster has this guy, considering Lewis and Autry are being called the 3-techs.   Should begin to see more PT as the season moves on, but Houston and Turay will be the EDGE guys on obvious passing downs, IMO.

 

129.  Foster Moreaux TE, LSU.  A strong run and pass blocker.  Underrated as a receiver, but not much production in the passing game in college to get drafted early.   Takes over for Doyle after this year and likely sees a lot of PT as the season progresses. 

 

135.  Dennis Daley G/OT, South Carolina.  OL swingman to pair with Haeg, but with more upside at this point.  Solid depth.

 

164. LJ Scott, RB MSU.  Injuries limited his 2018 production but he is considered a better talent and prospect than this spot.  Built like and runs like Wilkins, only better.

 

199.  Cody Thompson, WR Toledo.  Solid hands and routes.  Bigger, faster, and more athletic than you might think.  

 

240.  BPA.

 

 

Love your draft with one exception.  I really will not b surprised if we don't a wr this year.  Could see our 1st 2nd round pick being another D linemen 

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13 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Love your draft with one exception.  I really will not b surprised if we don't a wr this year.  Could see our 1st 2nd round pick being another D linemen 

I'm glad you bumped this because I've been rethinking this mock a bit.  I'm leaning towards a WR in the 3rd.  In Brown's place at 34, I'd love to get Jerry Tillery (or reverse the pick with Lawrence).  If we could get Lawrence and Tillery 1,2; we would have a pretty lethal inside pass rush or LOS push, which is important in today's NFL with the quick release offenses and shorter drop backs.  The EDGES can be rotational and situational, but to have two guys who can consistently push the pocket on 1st and 2nd downs would be a huge addition to the defense.  Not to mention it could help keep Leonard clean.

 

I think we could get the WR we need in the third.  Not sure who it would be at this point, however.

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This is a very good draft!  I thank you for sharing this with us.  One thought on Lawrence, the ability to command a double team will only help our pass rushers.  Think about when Booger came to Indy and how he helped the rest of the defense.  

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2 hours ago, DougDew said:

I'm glad you bumped this because I've been rethinking this mock a bit.  I'm leaning towards a WR in the 3rd.  In Brown's place at 34, I'd love to get Jerry Tillery (or reverse the pick with Lawrence).  If we could get Lawrence and Tillery 1,2; we would have a pretty lethal inside pass rush or LOS push, which is important in today's NFL with the quick release offenses and shorter drop backs.  The EDGES can be rotational and situational, but to have two guys who can consistently push the pocket on 1st and 2nd downs would be a huge addition to the defense.  Not to mention it could help keep Leonard clean.

 

I think we could get the WR we need in the third.  Not sure who it would be at this point, however.

I would love Tillery and Lawrence but I think they will both b gone.  Look for a trade out if no DT is there at 26.  There may also b a surprise 1st round DT and/or DE. I think this draft will b much like last year. Trenches first and then skill positions.

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On 4/19/2019 at 10:58 AM, DougDew said:

I'm glad you bumped this because I've been rethinking this mock a bit.  I'm leaning towards a WR in the 3rd.  In Brown's place at 34, I'd love to get Jerry Tillery (or reverse the pick with Lawrence).  If we could get Lawrence and Tillery 1,2; we would have a pretty lethal inside pass rush or LOS push, which is important in today's NFL with the quick release offenses and shorter drop backs.  The EDGES can be rotational and situational, but to have two guys who can consistently push the pocket on 1st and 2nd downs would be a huge addition to the defense.  Not to mention it could help keep Leonard clean.

 

I think we could get the WR we need in the third.  Not sure who it would be at this point, however.

Being a lover of the lines, if we somehow got Lawrence AND Tillery, I might wet myself.  Of course, this might hinder the needs on the back end, but so be it.  I don't think that will happen anyway, but what a rotation up front they would have with those two!  Then fat Dexter wouldn't have to worry about getting tired.

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1 hour ago, AZColt11 said:

Being a lover of the lines, if we somehow got Lawrence AND Tillery, I might wet myself.  Of course, this might hinder the needs on the back end, but so be it.  I don't think that will happen anyway, but what a rotation up front they would have with those two!  Then fat Dexter wouldn't have to worry about getting tired.

I read somewhere recently where Lawrence was suspended two games during the season and failed a "test' of some sort.  At 340 pounds, the last thing I'd want is someone who had a lazy streak, so I'm cooling away from Lawrence in the first round, maybe all together.

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