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Dr. T

Dr. T's Annual Colts Draft Contest: 2019

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Round 1 - #26

A- Johnathan Abram S, Miss. St.

B- Christian Wilkins DT, Clemson

C- Dexter Lawrence DT, Clemson

 

Round 2a - #34

A- Greg Little T, Ole Miss

B- Rock Ya-Sin CB, Temple

C- N’Keal Harry WR, Arizona St.

 

Round 2b - #59

A- Miles Sanders RB, Penn State

B- Juan Thornhill S, Virginia

C- Darius Slayton WR, Auburn

 

Round 3 - #89

A- Joejuan Williams CB, Vanderbilt

B- David Long Jr. LB, West Virginia

C- Oshane Ximines DE, Old Dominion

 

Round 4a - #129

A- Gerald Willis DT, Miami

B- Bobby Evans T, Oklahoma

 

Round 4b - #135

A- Te’Von Coney LB, Notre Dame

B- Marquise Blair S, Utah

 

Round 5 - #164

A- Diontae Johnson WR, Toledo

B- Alexander Mattison RB, Boise State

 

Round 6 - #199

A- Xavier Crawford CB, Central Michigan

B- Alize Mack TE, Notre Dame

 

Round 7 - #240

A- Deebo Samuel WR, South Carolina

B- Kaleb McGary T, Washington

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LAST ONE, I PROMISE :)  (can't make up my mind)

 

Round 1 - #26
A: Jonathan Abrams, S, Miss. State
B: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson
C: DeAndre Baker, CB, Georgia

 

Round 2a - #34
A:  A J Brown, WR, Mississippi
B:  Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas State
C:  Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama

 

Round 2b - #59
A: Renell Wren, DT, Arizona State
B: J J Arcega Whiteside, WR, Stanford
C: Juan Thornhill, S, Virginia

 

Round 3 - #89
A: Trysten Hill, DT, Central Florida
B: Charles Omenihu, DE, Texas
C: Terry McLaurin, WR, Ohio State

 

Round 4a - #129
A: Keelan Doss, WR, Cal. Davis
B: Jordan Brown, CB, North Dakota St.

 

Round 4b - #135
A: Tim Harris, CB, Virginia
B: Ben Banogu, DE, TCU

 

Round 5 - #164
A: Alexander Mattison, RB, Boise State
B: Drew Sample, TE, Washington 

 

Round 6 - #199
A: Germaine Pratt, LB, NC State
B: Kaleb McGary, OT, Washington

 

Round 7 - #240
A: Paris Campbell, WR, Ohio State
B: Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame

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Rd. 1 A Clelin Ferrell Clemson Edge

Rd. 1 B Dexter Lawrence Clemson DT

Rd. 1C Jeffery Simmons Miss. St. DT

Rd. 2A AJ Brown Miss. WR

Rd. 2B Hakeem Butler Iowa St. WR

Rd. 2C Jerry Tillery Notre Dame DT

Rd. 2D N'Keal Harry Arizona St. WR

Rd. 2E Parris Campbell Ohio St. WR

Rd. 2F Johnathan Abrams Miss St. FS

Rd. 3A Greg Little Miss. OT

Rd. 3B Gerald Willis Miami DT

Rd. 3C Charles Omenihu  Texas DE

Rd. 4A Beau Benzschawel Wisconsin OL

Rd. 4B Isaiah Johnson Houston CB

Rd. 4C Darrius Slayton Auburn WR

Rd. 4D Ryquell Armstead Temple RB

Rd.  5A DaMarkus Lodge Miss. St. WR 

Rd. 5B Armon Watts Arkansas DT

Rd. 6A Ricky Walker Va. Tech DT

Rd. 6B Preston Williams Colorado St. WR

Rd. 7A Nasir Adderley Delaware FS

Rd. 7B Christian Wilkins Clemson DT

 

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I don't know why I do this draft contest every year.  Every year I think I have a pretty good idea of things and every year I think I start to get a handle on what the GM looks for and every year it is thrown in my face that I know diddly squat.  It's not good for my self-confidence. :)

 

Dr. T, as always thank you for doing this.

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2 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

I don't know why I do this draft contest every year.  Every year I think I have a pretty good idea of things and every year I think I start to get a handle on what the GM looks for and every year it is thrown in my face that I know diddly squat.  It's not good for my self-confidence. :)

 

Dr. T, as always thank you for doing this.

Well....you know your Xs and Os way better than most of us though, Coffee.... so for those of us who don't have the football experience or the time or passion to dig deep into the football knowledge.... posters like yourself offer some much appreciated understanding.  :hat:

 

The interviews and scouting visits none of us are privy to fill out a lot of the puzzle for Ballard and company... and even then we know its an educated guess for them too. 

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While I was watching last night, I was thinking that maybe the other teams were trying to emulate Ballard by targeting the players he was rumored to like. Granted, many of the picks last night were expected, but after awhile, I thought we were snake bit. All three Clemson DLs go (one way too early and none of them dropped), Brain Burns also does not drop. Savage is the first S taken! Really? Then Abrams goes too (although we could have had him or Sweat if we wanted). Tillary gone, Tytus Howard and Kaleb McGary go too early, and Josh Jacobs and Harry go off the board just at the end of Round 1. Hell, even Collier got picked and he was rated as a fourth rounder a week or so ago! :wall:

For our first round, it was truly the worst case scenario (remember that article?). I guess that's why Ballard traded down. There was nothing left. :angry:

The Colts also were rumored to like Tre Watson, Malik Reed, Maxx Crosby and Charles Omenihu. I wonder if we get ANY of them either at this point.

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3 hours ago, pacolts56 said:

The interviews and scouting visits none of us are privy to fill out a lot of the puzzle for Ballard and company... and even then we know its an educated guess for them too

 

Well, it depends on the definition of the term 'educated guess'.

 

It's not an exact science, but it is much more than an educated guess.  It is more of an educated evaluation/calculation/quantification.  Scouts for teams have been following/grading college players (going into the draft) for 1 to 2 years.  Each and every position has a lot of specific traits/requirements that have to evaluated and properly quantified that accurately reflects how player A stacks up vs. all of the other players at his position (in history, not just this season).  Here's such an evaluation list for Wide Receiver (every position has its own detailed criteria) scouts use-

 

RECEIVERS EVALUATION CRITERIA

The term wide receiver gets misused as many of the top receiving weapons in the league do their damage from the slot position or other alignments other than the outside receiving position. It’s also important to understand all the different receiver positions and the skill sets needed to excel at those various positions.

 

The “X” RECEIVER is the SPLIT END playing on the line of scrimmage. He must have the strength and quickness to fend off jam coverage as well as the strength to work across the middle of the field and make plays after the catch.

 

The “Z” RECEIVER is the FLANKER who normally plays opposite the split end, lining up just off the line of scrimmage making it a little easier to escape the jam with quickness and less reliant with strength. They do most of their work outside the numbers and vertically down the field.


The “SLOT” RECEIVER works off the line of scrimmage between the tight end/tackle and outside receiver. They must excel with quickness as they need to work a lot of two way option routes and elude with quickness.

There are two types of SLOTS—the quick smaller slot and the big, physical slot that creates size mismatches. The quicker guys are more prevalent as more teams are using their TE in a flexed out position due to the proliferation of the spread passing offenses in college ball.

 

AVERAGE NFL PHYSICAL TRAITS:
HEIGHT= 6010 (min – 5095 slot ) WEIGHT= 203 (min 170 slot-)
40 (speed over distance) = 4.48 (4.55) 10 (initial quickness) = 1.60 20 (maintain burst) = 2.65
BP x 225 (upper body strength) = 12
VJ (explosiveness, lower leg strength) = 36 BJ (explosiveness, hip strength) = 10-0
20yd shuttle (flexibility, burst, balance) = 4.15 60yd shuttle (flexibility, balance, endurance) = 11.4
3 cone = (agility, body control, cod) = 7.0 (min 7.50-) 4 square = 8.85
ARM= 31 3/4 HAND= 9 3/8
TEST= 20

 

****STRIDER SPEED****  On film, if a player can cover 5 yards with 2 steps = 4.5yard 40 time, If you can cover 5 plus yards with 2 steps, you are usually a sub 4.5 guy.—Based on going full speed.

 

WR CRITICAL FACTORS: NFL Receivers need to find a way to get open and catch the ball. In order to beat coverage, a receiver must be able to separate either with his speed or crafty route running. After getting open, you must have the body control to adjust to the ball and secure hands to catch the ball. Hand catching out of frame is one of the increasingly more important attributes as this allows for a larger catching radius and the ability to catch routes designed to keep defenders away from the ball like the back shoulder fade. Effective route running is making every route look the same over the first 8-10 yards of the route to keep defenders on their heels. Good route runners know how to eat defensive back’s cushion with stems and nods in an effort to get them to open their hips precisely when a route is called to be broken off. Being able to do this while not breaking stride is the key to being a fluid and disciplined route runner and one difficult to defend.
.
1. HANDS—hard or soft—ability to snatch or body catch/trap, eye hand coordination, concentration and consistency.
2. ATHLETIC ABILITY– QUICKNESS—quickness off LOS—release, escape jam and separation, quickness in and out of cuts and separation quickness. AGILITY—-fluid routes,, sharp cuts as opposed to rounding them out, stride length. BALANCE— ability to turn & adjust body to keep in balance—body flexibility , ability to gather and cut
3. STRENGTH/EXPLOSION— STRENGTH– playing strength and explosion—blocking strength strength, ability to break through tackles, EXPLOSION—burst off LOS, strength & leverage into blocks.
4. LEARNING/WORK ETHIC—ability to understand coverage's and make adjustments on fly, extra time with QB to get sight adjustments down.
5. RELEASE— Initial quickness off the ball, avoid jam, separation quickness.
6. ROUTES— type cuts—sharp or round, body flexibility, quickness off break—stride and
ability to gather and cut. Ability to get open, adjust to ball, awareness, ability to get deep, adjust
to ball in flight and deep acceleration.
7. PLAYING SPEED— speed of player in pads on the field. START— quickness off LOS, second gear COD- ability to gather and cut, re-direct his body & accelerate deep and short., quickness off break & ability to get open on short routes. STRIDE/FLUIDITY IN GAME— length of stride & type of runner (long, short, smooth/loose, tight/labors, adjustment to ball in flight, ability to run after catch, elusiveness & threat as runner as well as ability to get deep.
8. BALL SKILLS/COMPETITIVENESS— ability to play the ball and fight for ball in air.. player’s physical and mental toughness and intensity. CLUTCH—win at all costs, wants to be best, plays with confidence & aggressiveness, wants to be man in charge with game on line. WORK ETHIC— works at being best on & off field PRODUCTION— how he grades out—hand catches, route running, separation, yards per catch. REACTION TO CROWD THROWS— courage, concentration on ball in crown, holds ball on contact.

WR POSITION SPECIFICS:
9. (1) BLOCKING—effort/willingness, strength, type of blocks made,
10. (2) RUN AFTER CATCH— elusiveness, threat as runner, breakaway speed, ability to
break tackles.
11. (3) BODY ADJUSTMENT—adjustment to ball in flight & tough to catch spots, ability to
block on move, jumping ability, high and low catches, front and behind catches.
Overall catching radius.
12. (4) VISION/TRACKING BALL—see ball in flight and adjustment to ball.
13. (5) TOUGHNESS—ability to take hit and maintain focus, blocking toughness.
14. (6) SIZE— minimum requirement, type of build, growth potential.

 

SPECIAL TEAMS FACTORS:
1. RETURNERS— should be core return guy
2. GUNNERS ON COVERAGE UNITS–

 

SEQUENTIAL ORDER OF EVALUATING A WR ON A PLAY:
1. START
2. RELEASE & DRIVE
3. PATTERNS & CUTS
4. ADJUSTMENT TO BALL
5. CROWD REACTION
6. TAKE HIT
7. HANDS
8. RUN AFTER CATCH
9. FIELD AWARENESS
10. BLOCKING

 

Then on top of this, the teams get detailed medical reports, psychological evaluation, intelligence tests, personal interviews, private workouts, scheme fit determination,  etc. 

 

Teams might miscalculate someone at times, or some of their scouts are not as good at quantifying these traits as others, but I don't think the majority do very often.  I think it's the other areas that plays into many hit/miss scenarios.  I consider the time and effort NFL teams spend year round on scouting/evaluating/quantifying is a step above an educated guess.

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9 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Well, it depends on the definition of the term 'educated guess'.

 

It's not an exact science, but it is much more than an educated guess.  It is more of an educated evaluation/calculation/quantification.  Scouts for teams have been following/grading college players for 1 to 2 years.  Each and every position has a lot of specific traits/requirements that have to evaluated and properly quantified that accurately reflects how player A stacks up vs. all of the other players at his position (in history, not just this season).  Here's such an evaluation list for Wide Receiver (every position has its own detailed criteria) scouts use-

 

RECEIVERS EVALUATION CRITERIA

The term wide receiver gets misused as many of the top receiving weapons in the league do their damage from the slot position or other alignments other than the outside receiving position. It’s also important to understand all the different receiver positions and the skill sets needed to excel at those various positions.

 

The “X” RECEIVER is the SPLIT END playing on the line of scrimmage. He must have the strength and quickness to fend off jam coverage as well as the strength to work across the middle of the field and make plays after the catch.

 

The “Z” RECEIVER is the FLANKER who normally plays opposite the split end, lining up just off the line of scrimmage making it a little easier to escape the jam with quickness and less reliant with strength. They do most of their work outside the numbers and vertically down the field.


The “SLOT” RECEIVER works off the line of scrimmage between the tight end/tackle and outside receiver. They must excel with quickness as they need to work a lot of two way option routes and elude with quickness.

There are two types of SLOTS—the quick smaller slot and the big, physical slot that creates size mismatches. The quicker guys are more prevalent as more teams are using their TE in a flexed out position due to the proliferation of the spread passing offenses in college ball.

 

AVERAGE NFL PHYSICAL TRAITS:
HEIGHT= 6010 (min – 5095 slot ) WEIGHT= 203 (min 170 slot-)
40 (speed over distance) = 4.48 (4.55) 10 (initial quickness) = 1.60 20 (maintain burst) = 2.65
BP x 225 (upper body strength) = 12
VJ (explosiveness, lower leg strength) = 36 BJ (explosiveness, hip strength) = 10-0
20yd shuttle (flexibility, burst, balance) = 4.15 60yd shuttle (flexibility, balance, endurance) = 11.4
3 cone = (agility, body control, cod) = 7.0 (min 7.50-) 4 square = 8.85
ARM= 31 3/4 HAND= 9 3/8
TEST= 20

 

****STRIDER SPEED****  On film, if a player can cover 5 yards with 2 steps = 4.5yard 40 time, If you can cover 5 plus yards with 2 steps, you are usually a sub 4.5 guy.—Based on going full speed.

 

WR CRITICAL FACTORS: NFL Receivers need to find a way to get open and catch the ball. In order to beat coverage, a receiver must be able to separate either with his speed or crafty route running. After getting open, you must have the body control to adjust to the ball and secure hands to catch the ball. Hand catching out of frame is one of the increasingly more important attributes as this allows for a larger catching radius and the ability to catch routes designed to keep defenders away from the ball like the back shoulder fade. Effective route running is making every route look the same over the first 8-10 yards of the route to keep defenders on their heels. Good route runners know how to eat defensive back’s cushion with stems and nods in an effort to get them to open their hips precisely when a route is called to be broken off. Being able to do this while not breaking stride is the key to being a fluid and disciplined route runner and one difficult to defend.
.
1. HANDS—hard or soft—ability to snatch or body catch/trap, eye hand coordination, concentration and consistency.
2. ATHLETIC ABILITY– QUICKNESS—quickness off LOS—release, escape jam and separation, quickness in and out of cuts and separation quickness. AGILITY—-fluid routes,, sharp cuts as opposed to rounding them out, stride length. BALANCE— ability to turn & adjust body to keep in balance—body flexibility , ability to gather and cut
3. STRENGTH/EXPLOSION— STRENGTH– playing strength and explosion—blocking strength strength, ability to break through tackles, EXPLOSION—burst off LOS, strength & leverage into blocks.
4. LEARNING/WORK ETHIC—ability to understand coverage's and make adjustments on fly, extra time with QB to get sight adjustments down.
5. RELEASE— Initial quickness off the ball, avoid jam, separation quickness.
6. ROUTES— type cuts—sharp or round, body flexibility, quickness off break—stride and
ability to gather and cut. Ability to get open, adjust to ball, awareness, ability to get deep, adjust
to ball in flight and deep acceleration.
7. PLAYING SPEED— speed of player in pads on the field. START— quickness off LOS, second gear COD- ability to gather and cut, re-direct his body & accelerate deep and short., quickness off break & ability to get open on short routes. STRIDE/FLUIDITY IN GAME— length of stride & type of runner (long, short, smooth/loose, tight/labors, adjustment to ball in flight, ability to run after catch, elusiveness & threat as runner as well as ability to get deep.
8. BALL SKILLS/COMPETITIVENESS— ability to play the ball and fight for ball in air.. player’s physical and mental toughness and intensity. CLUTCH—win at all costs, wants to be best, plays with confidence & aggressiveness, wants to be man in charge with game on line. WORK ETHIC— works at being best on & off field PRODUCTION— how he grades out—hand catches, route running, separation, yards per catch. REACTION TO CROWD THROWS— courage, concentration on ball in crown, holds ball on contact.

WR POSITION SPECIFICS:
9. (1) BLOCKING—effort/willingness, strength, type of blocks made,
10. (2) RUN AFTER CATCH— elusiveness, threat as runner, breakaway speed, ability to
break tackles.
11. (3) BODY ADJUSTMENT—adjustment to ball in flight & tough to catch spots, ability to
block on move, jumping ability, high and low catches, front and behind catches.
Overall catching radius.
12. (4) VISION/TRACKING BALL—see ball in flight and adjustment to ball.
13. (5) TOUGHNESS—ability to take hit and maintain focus, blocking toughness.
14. (6) SIZE— minimum requirement, type of build, growth potential.

SPECIAL TEAMS FACTORS:
1. RETURNERS— should be core return guy
2. GUNNERS ON COVERAGE UNITS–

SEQUENTIAL ORDER OF EVALUATING A WR ON A PLAY:
1. START
2. RELEASE & DRIVE
3. PATTERNS & CUTS
4. ADJUSTMENT TO BALL
5. CROWD REACTION
6. TAKE HIT
7. HANDS
8. RUN AFTER CATCH
9. FIELD AWARENESS
10. BLOCKING

 

Then on top of this, the teams get detailed medical reports, psychological evaluation, intelligence tests, personal interviews, private workouts, etc. 

 

Teams might miscalculate someone at times, or some of their scouts are not as good at quantifying these traits as others, but I don't think the majority do very often.  I think it's the other areas that plays into many hit/miss scenarios.  I consider the time and effort NFL teams spend year round on scouting/evaluating/quantifying is a step above an educated guess.

I guess. 

 

 

0145428D-9C6F-49B4-BCA6-07E29865E7D5.jpeg

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Oh, and BTW: at the end of Day #1:

WE ARE ALL TIED FOR FIRST PLACE!

:rock::excited:  :spit:

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At the end of Day #2, 15 out of 26 contestants got at least one selection correct!

But the present leader, guessing two correctly, with a total of 6 points is ....

CLEM-DOG !!

Can any of you others do better today?

WE SHALL SEE !!

:gym:  :catfight: :neener: 

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Similar to Day #1, there were not many correct guesses on Day #3. :thinking:

So that means, the winner of this year's Dr. T's Colt's Draft Contest is ...

 

CLEM-DOG !!    :worthy:   :rock:

 

For the rest of us ... there's always next year!   :Cry:

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Although I am not worthy I am honored to join the pantheon of greats in Dr. T's Annual draft contest.  Thanks Dr. T, I will be back to defend this crown in 2020.

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7 hours ago, That Guy said:

Congrats @Clem-Dog!  You did MUCH better than last year's winner.

….or the year before.  Congrats Clem-dog!

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Congrats Clem-Dog. .....for me I have proven intense study (2018) gleaned as many points for me as (2019) blind guessing, better not quit my day job, but great fun either way.....thanks Doc for the fun!

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