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First draft pick?


dodsworth

What is our first pick in the draft?  

116 members have voted

  1. 1. What is our first pick in the draft?

    • D lineman
      74
    • Linebacker
      3
    • Cornerback
      13
    • Safety
      10
    • O lineman
      1
    • Tight end
      1
    • Wideout/slot
      12
    • Running back
      2


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The overall depth of the team appears to be in very good shape

with no glaring holes that need filled with the signing of Houston

and hopefully Inman soon.

 

With that being said, what position do the Colts draft in rd 1? 

I would be happy with BPA at the D line interior but I wouldn't 

be upset if we went towards safety, cornerback or even linebacker

for that matter.

 

Whatcha think Colts nation?

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this will be interesting now,  we dont really have any dire needs but we are not so stacked that we can rule much out either

 

ballard tends to go bpa in the first round too, remember safety was not the biggest need when we took hooker.  it could be an offensive player if one falls

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I'm going minority and saying CB here. Players like Baker, Murphy, Williams, and Oruwariye can all be there as BPA. I see D-Lineman going quickly to where there's no value, and Safety in the 2nd round as well as WR later. O-Line is a slim possibility, but I'm going CB here.

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38 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I'm going minority and saying CB here. Players like Baker, Murphy, Williams, and Oruwariye can all be there as BPA. I see D-Lineman going quickly to where there's no value, and Safety in the 2nd round as well as WR later. O-Line is a slim possibility, but I'm going CB here.

Baker would be super tempting in this defense.  He has the talent and is a system fit. But if I had to bet...Dline.  The man says what he means...inside out!

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My overall draft philosophy is that round 1 is targeted for players who are impactful from a three down on the field perspective.  A player the opponent has to account for, regardless of position.  It also helps if that player is at a position that could be upgraded.

 

The positions that best fit that philosophy this year are DT, WR, S, and MLB, since those are both impactful positions (more so than some others) that could use upgrading with a three down stud.

 

I'll decide the BPA within those 4 positions at pick 26.  I assume the best player of the 4 would be within the top 32 BPA total rank, although being just outside the top 32 is okay.  In the unlikely event the BPA of those 4 are lower than say, player 35, I'd have to probably just go BPA regardless of position.

 

As we get closer to the draft, I'll study the draft guides and focus on those 4 positions.  I wouldn't be surprised if my BPA at 26 was a MLB, but I'm really hoping its a 3T.

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1 hour ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I'm going minority and saying CB here. Players like Baker, Murphy, Williams, and Oruwariye can all be there as BPA. I see D-Lineman going quickly to where there's no value, and Safety in the 2nd round as well as WR later. O-Line is a slim possibility, but I'm going CB here.

 

You're going CB even though Ballard has repeatedly said it's NOT a premium position in his defense....    that it doesn't require a high draft pick, OR premium money?

 

And you're STILL going with cornerback?

 

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27 minutes ago, DougDew said:

My overall draft philosophy is that round 1 is targeted for players who are impactful from a three down on the field perspective.  A player the opponent has to account for, regardless of position.  It also helps if that player is at a position that could be upgraded.

 

The positions that best fit that philosophy this year are DT, WR, S, and MLB, since those are both impactful positions (more so than some others) that could use upgrading with a three down stud.

 

I'll decide the BPA within those 4 positions at pick 26.  I assume the best player of the 4 would be within the top 32 BPA total rank, although being just outside the top 32 is okay.  In the unlikely event the BPA of those 4 are lower than say, player 35, I'd have to probably just go BPA regardless of position.

 

As we get closer to the draft, I'll study the draft guides and focus on those 4 positions.  I wouldn't be surprised if my BPA at 26 was a MLB, but I'm really hoping its a 3T.

Sign me up for DT and WR. 

S and MLB are the most devalued positions out there. 

Financially speaking, it's best to go DT and WR in the draft, and S and MLB in FA or later rounds. 

 

Regarding MLBs, White will be gone, Bush is an OLB, and after that, no one worth taking in the 1st round. Maybe not even in the second. 

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3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

You're going CB even though Ballard has repeatedly said it's NOT a premium position in his defense....    that it doesn't require a high draft pick, OR premium money?

 

And you're STILL going with cornerback?

 

If I'm going DB at all early, I'd rather have a CB with position flexibility that could play S as well. I don't think CB is a huge need, but I don't think S is 1st or 2nd round need either. The drop off of talent is not steep from the top 5 to the top 15. 

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4 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

Sign me up for DT and WR. 

S and MLB are the most devalued positions out there. 

Financially speaking, it's best to go DT and WR in the draft, and S and MLB in FA or later rounds. 

 

Regarding MLBs, White will be gone, Bush is an OLB, and after that, no one worth taking in the 1st round. Maybe not even in the second. 

Ok.  I haven't even looked at MLB yet, so I'll take your word for it.  And you're right about drafting guys who are expensive to sign in FA, and sign the guys who are not that expensive.

 

Unless you want Landon Collins LOL.

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2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

You're going CB even though Ballard has repeatedly said it's NOT a premium position in his defense....    that it doesn't require a high draft pick, OR premium money?

 

And you're STILL going with cornerback?

 

Yes. I think Ballard will go BPA at a position like CB rather than reach on a D-Lineman. I might be wrong on the exact position, but corner lines up with the 26th pick the best based on BPA. Don't be surprised if we go some other position like WR or TE in the first round either. As much as I love Ballard being 100% honest, I would be disappointed if he reached in the draft on a Lineman just to stick to his draft philosophy. I expect Ballard to adapt quickly as his draft board dissipates (as he should).

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58 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Ok.  I haven't even looked at MLB yet, so I'll take your word for it.  And you're right about drafting guys who are expensive to sign in FA, and sign the guys who are not that expensive.

 

Unless you want Landon Collins LOL.

I'd be very surprised if they didn't go DT in the 1st round. 

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Let’s face it, Ballard is always going to be lookin at Dline...every year.  Just think if the Giants could have continually kept some semblance of the NASCAR lineup, they would have been in the mix year in and year out.  But I think Ballard has longer range vision than most GMs

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My choices came down to DL/S. Hard to guess since we don't know how the board will fall, but I'm starting to think it could very well be DL at #26/Safety at #34 or vice versa. And then possibly WR at #59 since it's a pretty stacked class.

 

Then again that's probably just me being hopeful that somebody like Wilkins falls to #26, Rapp is there at #34, and then one of the many fine options at WR left at #59. That's probably my somewhat realistic dream scenario.

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2 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

If I'm going DB at all early, I'd rather have a CB with position flexibility that could play S as well. I don't think CB is a huge need, but I don't think S is 1st or 2nd round need either. The drop off of talent is not steep from the top 5 to the top 15. 

 

If you think that Geathers is not the long-term answer at safety then you're likely going to consider a safety during Day 2.    It appears to be a good class of safeties, so a Day 2 pick (R3) would work for me.

 

I wouldn't wait until Day 3 to address safety.

 

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4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

If you think that Geathers is not the long-term answer at safety then you're likely going to consider a safety during Day 2.    It appears to be a good class of safeties, so a Day 2 pick (R3) would work for me.

 

I wouldn't wait until Day 3 to address safety.

 

Hooker at 89 pls :D

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3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

If you think that Geathers is not the long-term answer at safety then you're likely going to consider a safety during Day 2.    It appears to be a good class of safeties, so a Day 2 pick (R3) would work for me.

 

I wouldn't wait until Day 3 to address safety.

 

I'm perfectly fine with a S in the 3rd or 4th round. And I think there will plenty available. IMO, there's not A or A+ Safeties in this year's draft. Actually, no B+s either. But I think there are several good (B) and above average (C+) safeties. Like I mentioned in a previous post, there are zero Ss that are rated at 6.0 or above this year, which is rare. There are like 15 or more Ss that range from 5.5 to 5.91 though. The best out of the bunch is a pure FS, so he's not really a fit for our need. Everyone after him that SSs all have some time of flaw or flaws. 

 

So deep on good and above average, but definitely not stud rich. Sure some could surprise like every year, but it's a pretty meh class overall. 

 

I know NFL.com ratings are imperfect, but they are better than most out there. Take a look at the SSs and tell me your top couple, and where you think they'll go,  if you have time. A few of my favs are actually outside of the top 8 IIRC. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects/S?college=allColleges&page=1&status=ALL

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22 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

I'm perfectly fine with a S in the 3rd or 4th round. And I think there will plenty available. IMO, there's not A or A+ Safeties in this year's draft. Actually, no B+s either. But I think there are several good (B) and above average (C+) safeties. Like I mentioned in a previous post, there are zero Ss that are rated at 6.0 or above this year, which is rare. There are like 15 or more Ss that range from 5.5 to 5.91 though. The best out of the bunch is a pure FS, so he's not really a fit for our need. Everyone after him that SSs all have some time of flaw or flaws. 

 

So deep on good and above average, but definitely not stud rich. Sure some could surprise like every year, but it's a pretty meh class overall. 

 

I know NFL.com ratings are imperfect, but they are better than most out there. Take a look at the SSs and tell me your top couple, and where you think they'll go,  if you have time. A few of my favs are actually outside of the top 8 IIRC. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects/S?college=allColleges&page=1&status=ALL

 

I would mostly agree with you’re evaluations...    and I’ve mostly focused on strong safety.    So the two I’m most interested in are Abrams and Hooker. 

 

And while guys like Rapp and Adderly  and others have played some strong safety at roughly 200 pounds,  it’s one thing to do it in college.   It’s another thing to do it in the NFL.  That's a different animal altogether.   I’d like a strong safety with some size and attitude.  Think Ballard and Eberflus would too.  If you have another candidate I missed please let me know.

 

By the way, Zierlein is my analyst of choice too.   Not only do I think he’s good,  he’s friends with Ballard and I think he had a good feel for what Balllard likes.   I use others,  but I think LZ is best for Colts fans. 

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49 minutes ago, RNGDShobby said:

Hooker at 89 pls :D

Ive been hoping for that too....   buybacks I’ve cone to believe he won’t be available at best at 89...    think he’ll be gone.   We might have to use pick 59 for Hooker.    Does that change your view?    Just asking...

 

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1 minute ago, DerekDiggler said:

BPA is what the pick will be.  

 

Need based 

DE, SS, NT, OT

 

IMO needs based priority (post Houton, Geathers, Desier) is

Tier 1

1) NT,

 

Tier 2

2a) WR, or

2b) SS,

 

Tier 3

4a) MLB,

4b) T 

4c) CB

 

Tier 4

7a) DE

7b) G

7C) TE

7d) RB

 

At 26, we'll have low 6.XX rated guys at NT, WR, CB, and T available. At 34 we'll have guys in the high 5.9Xs. The delta between their ratings is going to be very small. I can't see them going anywhere but DT with the first pick if that's correct. I sure as sheet don't see Ballard going BPA if the highest rated guy is WR, which very well could be the case with Brown. An OT could also be the BPA, and I can't see them taking a first round T with Smith and AC given the iDL need. There is no S in the class rated 6. or above. A SS could be a BPA at 34 maybe, but it's more likely that the delta closes a bit later. 

 

I really liked the Coltswire mock below pub'd yesterday, although I'd take a WR faster than Harry. I doubt they go WR1 regardless, but loved the S pick up at 59. I could see us going 89 for S too. Of course Edge won't likely happen at 89 now. 

Quote

 

No. 26 overall N’Keal Harry WR Arizona State

No. 34 overall Jerry Tillery DL Notre Dame

No. 59 overall Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S Florida

No. 89 overall Anthony Nelson EDGE Iowa

No. 129 overall Sean Bunting CB Central Michigan

No. 135 overall Gary Johnson LB Texas

 

 

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6 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I would mostly agree with you’re evaluations...    and I’ve mostly focused on strong safety.    So the two I’m most interested in are Abrams and Hooker. 

 

And while guys like Rapp and Adderly  and others have played some strong safety at roughly 200 pounds,  it’s one thing to do it in college.   It’s another thing to do it in the NFL.  That's a different animal altogether.   I’d like a strong safety with some size and attitude.  Think Ballard and Eberflus would too.  If you have another candidate I missed please let me know.

 

By the way, Zierlein is my analyst of choice too.   Not only do I think he’s good,  he’s friends with Ballard and I think he had a good feel for what Balllard likes.   I use others,  but I think LZ is best for Colts fans. 

No thanks on Abrams he could fall to the 60s or lower IMO. Struggles way too much in coverage. Hooker should be there at 39 (he's the 45th rated player overall). Honestly though, I'd take Chauncey Gardner-Johnson over Hooker, as I think CGJ has a higher ceiling.

One of my favs, and one that should be there at 59 is Juan Thornhill. Check him out. 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/juan-thornhill?id=32195448-4f54-9495-af73-48eb17033beb

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5 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

No thanks on Abrams he could fall to the 60s or lower IMO. Struggles way too much in coverage. Hooker should be there at 39 (he's the 45th rated player overall). Honestly though, I'd take Chauncey Gardner-Johnson over Hooker, as I think CGJ has a higher ceiling.

One of my favs, and one that should be there at 59 is Juan Thornhill. Check him out. 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/juan-thornhill?id=32195448-4f54-9495-af73-48eb17033beb

 

Whats not to like about  Thornhill?  Except with his super athleticism,  he seems more Free than Strong safety to me.    Do you think CGJ is big enough to play the strong?  

 

Just asking...

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21 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

 

IMO needs based priority (post Houton, Geathers, Desier) is

Tier 1

1) NT,

 

Tier 2

2a) WR, or

2b) SS,

 

Tier 3

4a) MLB,

4b) T 

4c) CB

 

Tier 4

7a) DE

7b) G

7C) TE

7d) RB

 

At 26, we'll have low 6.XX rated guys at NT, WR, CB, and T available. At 34 we'll have guys in the high 5.9Xs. The delta between their ratings is going to be very small. I can't see them going anywhere but DT with the first pick if that's correct. I sure as sheet don't see Ballard going BPA if the highest rated guy is WR, which very well could be the case with Brown. An OT could also be the BPA, and I can't see them taking a first round T with Smith and AC given the iDL need. There is no S in the class rated 6. or above. A SS could be a BPA at 34 maybe, but it's more likely that the delta closes a bit later. 

 

I really liked the Coltswire mock below pub'd yesterday, although I'd take a WR faster than Harry. I doubt they go WR1 regardless, but loved the S pick up at 59. I could see us going 89 for S too. Of course Edge won't likely happen at 89 now. 

 

I’m good with your need ranks.  I’d still rank a need at DE as top priority. 2 pass rushers are better than one.   I don’t agree about WR that early.    I am wondering if the Colts will continue with the double 3 techs they were playing at the end of the yr or go back to the UT and NT lineup.   So that is why I am not ranking NT above SS 

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14 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Whats not to like about  Thornhill?  Except with his super athleticism,  he seems more Free than Strong safety to me.    Do you think CGJ is big enough to play the strong?  

 

Just asking...

They compare Thornhill to HaHa, and CGJ to Nate Allen, both of whom are SS (if that makes sense). I watch a lot of ACC and SEC games, and have seen both. I love that both are super athletic. Thornhill IMO is a better tackler than CGI. I think both have high ceilings. At worst, they'd be very solid #2s, which is perfectly fine at late 2nd or 3rd round. I think Thornhill is a little undervalued because he went to a non-football factory school. And CGJ comes from a college known for D, and DBs.

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22 minutes ago, DerekDiggler said:

I’m good with your need ranks.  I’d still rank a need at DE as top priority. 2 pass rushers are better than one.   I don’t agree about WR that early.    I am wondering if the Colts will continue with the double 3 techs they were playing at the end of the yr or go back to the UT and NT lineup.   So that is why I am not ranking NT above SS 

Ballard mention iDL in his radio interview today as a priority. Tillery for instance could play NT or UT (played both at ND). A few of the others in that 6.0x range can too. 

 

i don't think Ballard will take a WR that early either (well maybe), but I do believe the true need is accurately ranked. 

 

 

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Bpa.  I say that every year secretly hoping a position of need would be taken!  But this year, I'll be at peace with whoever is taken. 

 

But I would also look to be very aggressive and move up to get who I really want.  With the signings/re-signings we've had thus far, we don't need all those picks imo and would give up to move up. 

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I’m picking Dline with my vote because I think the talent in the draft should someone drop to us is fantastic. However, looking at the roster, it stands out to me that all 4 TE’s we have currently, expire after this season. If one of those TE’s fall to us because all the top dline talent has been taken, I would not be shocked at all to see us go get a top TE pick. Which TE is the top guy who can block and catch? That’s who I’d be looking at if the dline guys are gone by 26. 

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For me, I would want one of Brian Burns, Montez Sweat or Clelin Ferrell to fall to 26. If none of them do, I would look at Byron Murphy at 26 and draft someone like Chase Winovich on day 2. I do definitely feel like Safety is a position of need too, but due to how the position is for some reason devalued by the league (unfairly I add) and there is depth this year in this class, I would look to grab someone like Taylor Rapp or Darnell Savage on day 2 or someone like Will Harris on day 3. I would also like to get someone like Mack Wilson, who could be a nice Mike in our system.

 

If one of them did fall would look at:

R1. Burns, Sweat or Ferrell

R2a. Byron Murphy 

R2b. Mack Wilson (if he falls- I feel like he would a good Mike in our system) or Taylor Rapp

R3. Taylor Rapp (if we took someone like Wilson and if Rapp falls this far) or Darnell Savage

 

If none of the Edge rushers fall then:

R1. Murphy

R2a. Wilson

R2b. Rapp

R3. Winovich

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11 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

I'd be very surprised if they didn't go DT in the 1st round. 

     Unless a blue chip DE is still there, I’d like to see a DT to start over Stewart. Ballard spoke about getting pressure up the middle but they still need a solid run defender.

      I do trust Ballard & Co with whatever they decide. 

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15 hours ago, dodsworth said:

The overall depth of the team appears to be in very good shape

with no glaring holes that need filled with the signing of Houston

and hopefully Inman soon.

 

With that being said, what position do the Colts draft in rd 1? 

I would be happy with BPA at the D line interior but I wouldn't 

be upset if we went towards safety, cornerback or even linebacker

for that matter.

 

Whatcha think Colts nation?

I'm going with Safety.  Unless one of the better DL falls to us, I think based on everything we've seen, safety will be the pick.  Unless the stuff about Ballard and Reich focusing a ton of the Safety group at the combine is more smoke and mirrors.

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The big question, did the front four of the defense pressure the QB

enough last year and is Houston enough to take it to the next level?

 

I'm thinking we need a DT game changer the more I think about it.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, csmopar said:

I'm going with Safety.  Unless one of the better DL falls to us, I think based on everything we've seen, safety will be the pick.  Unless the stuff about Ballard and Reich focusing a ton of the Safety group at the combine is more smoke and mirrors.

See post above, I hit send before I read your quote. I'm fine with any

defender as BPA but I'm thinking we need more push up the middle.

 

A top notch safety to go along side Hooker could be an intriguing 

pick also.

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1 hour ago, jskinnz said:

Any position other than QB or kicker is on the table for the Colts at 26. I honestly don’t believe you can rule out any other than those two. 

 

 

I would be shocked if a guard was taken in the first after the contract Glow signed.    

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