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Rally5

Are we well positioned?

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For years on this forum I've argued that the BPA draft philosophy is just a smokescreen for GM's, code for "were not showing our cards."   The Houston signing to me fills all positions of critical need.  We essentially have every offensive starter signed plus Funchess and if we close Geathers we retain all of our defensive talent +Houston.  We go into the draft, in the first time I can recall, where we can truly take the best talent on the board that fits our schemes and culture.  My instinct (not that it matters) is we go DLine and DB early but not only can we play the opportunist be we can also field all sorts of calls for our first pick on top of round two (people always panic buy after having a night to think about who's still on the board).   This free agency has required patience and discipline and we're really seeing the fruits of that labor and the beauty is this isn't done paying dividends!  Color me happy!

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Geathers is signed, but even with Houston our D could use upgrades.  We have a lot of “if’s”.  If Geathers stays healthy, if last years Dline rookies continue to develop, if the corner play improves, etc.

 

The O is looking solid, and if Cain comes back as we hope, there’s another weapon.  I’d like to see a short yardage back.  He may already be on the team. As always, injuries change everything but the depth is pretty solid.  

 

Yes, we’re in better shape than at least 25 teams, if not more, but plenty of room for improvement.  

 

Going to to be a great, fun year!

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2 hours ago, Smonroe said:

Geathers is signed, but even with Houston our D could use upgrades.  We have a lot of “if’s”.  If Geathers stays healthy, if last years Dline rookies continue to develop, if the corner play improves, etc.

 

The O is looking solid, and if Cain comes back as we hope, there’s another weapon.  I’d like to see a short yardage back.  He may already be on the team. As always, injuries change everything but the depth is pretty solid.  

 

Yes, we’re in better shape than at least 25 teams, if not more, but plenty of room for improvement.  

 

Going to to be a great, fun year!

Right on, I think we have to expect the first three picks to compete for starting jobs no matter what the position.  In that respect, this team has built depth at an incredible rate.  If we're able to essentially retain all of our starting talent and add say 5 upgrades (draft /FA) plus organic improvements of year two in new systems and rookie development...I have to say I like it a lot.  

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With every starter returning on defense and pencilling in Funchess as WR2 then our entire starting offense is intact as well as our special teams. Having said that, this is literally the first year of my fandom that we can truly draft BPA.....

 

Could a spot or two be improved (talent wise) here and there, absolutely. 

 

Position number one, in my humble opinion where we can obtain a day 1 starter with picks 26, 34 or 59 would be interior defensive line.

 

Number two would be safety. Someone to pair with Hooker that has ball skills in the deep halves. Geathers still has his role as the nickel/dime "joker".

 

Number three, and least likely in my opinion, would be wide receiver. I believe they want Funchess for more than a year, but want him to "prove it". T.Y.'s eventual replacement 'may' be on the roster already in Cain - yes I know.....late round pick.....injured....etc......was often rated as a 2nd round talent but with background concerns. The latent talent is there, does he bring it everyday though, that will determine that situation.

 

As a caveat to the Houston signing, I would now think that we may not see a twitchy defensive end drafted until the middle rounds now as a developmental project like Ben Banogu (TCU), Maxx Crosby (Eastern Mich.), Shareef Miller (Penn State) and Carl Granderson (Wyoming).

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10 hours ago, Scott Pennock said:

With every starter returning on defense and pencilling in Funchess as WR2 then our entire starting offense is intact as well as our special teams. Having said that, this is literally the first year of my fandom that we can truly draft BPA.....

 

Could a spot or two be improved (talent wise) here and there, absolutely. 

 

Position number one, in my humble opinion where we can obtain a day 1 starter with picks 26, 34 or 59 would be interior defensive line.

 

Number two would be safety. Someone to pair with Hooker that has ball skills in the deep halves. Geathers still has his role as the nickel/dime "joker".

 

Number three, and least likely in my opinion, would be wide receiver. I believe they want Funchess for more than a year, but want him to "prove it". T.Y.'s eventual replacement 'may' be on the roster already in Cain - yes I know.....late round pick.....injured....etc......was often rated as a 2nd round talent but with background concerns. The latent talent is there, does he bring it everyday though, that will determine that situation.

 

As a caveat to the Houston signing, I would now think that we may not see a twitchy defensive end drafted until the middle rounds now as a developmental project like Ben Banogu (TCU), Maxx Crosby (Eastern Mich.), Shareef Miller (Penn State) and Carl Granderson (Wyoming).

Yeah, I'm with you, I'm going to enjoy watching a draft where I'm not pining for us to fill some position of need!  I wouldn't be surprised if we move in the draft, up or down, just based on the flexibility we have.

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8 minutes ago, Rally5 said:

Yeah, I'm with you, I'm going to enjoy watching a draft where I'm not pining for us to fill some position of need!  I wouldn't be surprised if we move in the draft, up or down, just based on the flexibility we have.

Yessir ir will be a blast. We still have our favorites, but, I wanna see if Ballard/Dodds/Hogan pull a Belichek and move all over the place and pick up extra picks this or next year!??!

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I think he has set up everything to where most of the draft will be focused on both fronts again, OL and DL.  I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't do much in the secondary besides a safety.  I thought we were even worse in the secondary before the draft last year and he didn't draft a single DB.  Now we are a little bit better so it wouldn't shock me if he didn't make any moves there again.  I think when it's all said and done we'll come out of this draft having focused on  DL/DE,  OL(LT),  WR, TE, S, and LB Depth.  It wouldn't shock me if he slow played the CB position and just looked for some cuts or releases between now and after the draft.  He pretty much brought everyone back in the secondary and didnt cut anyone. Sort of speaks something to me.  Holder did say they look like they are most defnitely getting a safety so I will make room for that. 

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You win up front he keeps saying, and I agree.  The front of your units affects how the rest on back plays.  I believe he hits the front lines again, this time at DT and OT.  We will see, and a lot can still happen between now and the draft.  But I REALLY like how he is building this thing.

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DT, S, WR, OT. This would be a great Day 1, Day 2 focus. These are the true needs of this team right now. 

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I don't think Ballard is done, but I do think we're in good position. We'll see how things go over the next few weeks, and how the draft plays out.

 

But at the same time, I think there are several spots on the roster that still need improvement. On offense, RT is a question mark, and while Smith might provide the organic upgrade in his second year, that's not a given. I still think WR2/3 is a question mark, even with Funchess (I'm hoping we come away from the draft with one of these slotty receivers), and TE is a question, depending on Doyle's ability to stay healthy and return to form. Even RB, can Mack stay on the field, and if not, do we have another guy who can fill in for him?

 

On defense, we have questions at CB, which might be okay depending on how well Desir and Wilson play. I think we can do better at safety and while I like Autry and Lewis I would love to have a game-wrecking three tech (two more positions I think the draft will help with). There are questions about the young edge rushers. I think Walker is adequate at Mike, but we could do better. 

 

Long story short, I think the roster still needs a lot of work. I like where it's headed, but we're counting on the development of a lot of young guys, and other positions are manned by average to slightly above average players. I think we're still behind established contenders -- New England, Rams, Saints, Chargers, Eagles... jury's out on the Chiefs, considering the best part of their defense just took two big hits. 

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I'm not sure if the Houston signing changes the draft strategy much at all, if a DE the Colts thinks will be an impact player for the next 10+ years is there at #26 then they will draft him.

 

In other words, I don't think signing Houston will cause the Colts to reassess position value nor will it cause them to adjust their board.

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We have a lot of age on the defense that we might only get a few more years out of. I think we defintly need to look at those positions for the future. 

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10 minutes ago, Superman said:

I don't think Ballard is done, but I do think we're in good position. We'll see how things go over the next few weeks, and how the draft plays out.

 

But at the same time, I think there are several spots on the roster that still need improvement. On offense, RT is a question mark, and while Smith might provide the organic upgrade in his second year, that's not a given. I still think WR2/3 is a question mark, even with Funchess (I'm hoping we come away from the draft with one of these slotty receivers), and TE is a question, depending on Doyle's ability to stay healthy and return to form. Even RB, can Mack stay on the field, and if not, do we have another guy who can fill in for him?

 

On defense, we have questions at CB, which might be okay depending on how well Desir and Wilson play. I think we can do better at safety and while I like Autry and Lewis I would love to have a game-wrecking three tech (two more positions I think the draft will help with). There are questions about the young edge rushers. I think Walker is adequate at Mike, but we could do better. 

 

Long story short, I think the roster still needs a lot of work. I like where it's headed, but we're counting on the development of a lot of young guys, and other positions are manned by average to slightly above average players. I think we're still behind established contenders -- New England, Rams, Saints, Chargers, Eagles... jury's out on the Chiefs, considering the best part of their defense just took two big hits. 

 

Excellent "State of the Nation".

 

It is not a given that the young guys that did so great last year will all continue to improve, some might even regress a bit, but then Ballard has never implied that we are close to being set. I also think that getting a young stud at pass rush is probably what stresses him out the most. Hopefully Turay will solve some of it going forward, but one guy is never enough. 

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9 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

I'm not sure if the Houston signing changes the draft strategy much at all, if a DE the Colts thinks will be an impact player for the next 10+ years is there at #26 then they will draft him.

 

In other words, I don't think signing Houston will cause the Colts to reassess position value nor will it cause them to adjust their board. 

 

 Just how good Bosa or J Allen will be isn't a given.

Some believe it comes down to grades and that by the time you get to pick 26 there will several with grades in a very tight range. Then at that point what separates the choice is need.

 What i found helpful was CB saying they saw special traits in Turay at the Senior Bowl that gave him great upside. Some thought he was drafted to early.

 We will see what kind of jump if any he makes in year 2.

 Based on how the quick passing game works, pass rush up the middle some think is more important. In the case of two guys with similar grades i would bet the house CB choses an inside guy with rush, push the pocket ability.

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The team has not changed much. Our young guys will develop more but i think were in a position to do what we did last year, maybe not as successful because our schedule this season seems murderous. 

 

In order to compete with the likes of KC and the Pats i think were going to have to upgade 

1- Safety: Geathers is not answer

2- Pashrush: Houston is not going to bring us from 30th in the league to top 5 we need more.

3- Wide out: Ty's contract is coming up, Inman is not signed yet and Funchess is one big ?

4- LT: AC i think will start regressing soon.

 

These are things hopefully will be addressed in the draft. I think if not this year, the next two years we should be in prime positioning to make a SB run, especially if BB and Brady retire.

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8 minutes ago, Nesjan3 said:

2- Pashrush: Houston is not going to bring us from 30th in the league to top 5 we need more.

 

 

By what metric was the Colts pass rush 30th last season?

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5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

By what metric was the Colts pass rush 30th last season?

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/defense/sort/sacks/position/defense

Well here is says we were 32nd in sacks. Im not sure if you want to account for quarterback pressures or not, i had found another stat that does account for Qb pressures and it put us at 29th or 30th. Cant find the link though

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7 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

By what metric was the Colts pass rush 30th last season?

NM!!! i just figured out that means we only allowed 18 sacks haha!!

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Just now, Nesjan3 said:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/defense/sort/sacks/position/defense

Well here is says we were 32nd is sacks. Im not sure if you want account quarterback pressures or not, i had found another stat that does account for Qb pressures and it put it at 29th or 30th. Cant find the link though

 

You're looking at sacks allowed. We were last in that category. 

 

This link shows the defensive sacks ranking, and the Colts were 19th. http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/sort/sacks/position/defense

 

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I read a tweet that if Houston was  on this team last season and  got just ten sacks it will move us all the way up to 7th. I will see if I can find it. I think I posted it in his thread.

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1 minute ago, Nesjan3 said:

Thanks!

 

We were toward the bottom in some advanced stats though, like adjusted sack rate, pressure rate, etc. Football Outsiders has some stuff on that. 

 

Like you, I don't expect just adding Houston to dramatically improve the pass rush. But if the young guys get better, Lewis healthy all year, and maybe adding some help in the draft, there could be more improvement from the pass rush than just what Houston brings. 

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Someone in the media said this is a top 5 roster now.  That surprised me.  I'm not sure I would go that far.   Elite QBs and effecient offenses will still expose this defense, I'm afraid.  Houston definitely helps, though.  Of what was out there and available, we did pretty well in landing Houston.  

 

 

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His logic makes sense. We were 2 games away from a SB, no need to tear the thing down.

 

Even incremental improvements shouldn't be poo poo'd.

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

You're looking at sacks allowed. We were last in that category. 

 

This link shows the defensive sacks ranking, and the Colts were 19th. http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/sort/sacks/position/defense

 

Looking at this list I tend to say sacks are almost irrelevant. And I take it back immediately lol. :) 

 

And still... last years Steelers defense lead the league in something that the Patriots defense was almost dead last in? That's not a good measurement. (Even if the Pats defense DID struggle for periods of time during the regular season.)

 

Passrush is important of course. It's just the stats that can be misleading.

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8 minutes ago, Peterk2011 said:

 

Looking at this list I tend to say sacks are almost irrelevant. And I take it back immediately lol. :) 

 

And still... last years Steelers defense lead the league in something that the Patriots defense was almost dead last in? That's not a good measurement. (Even if the Pats defense DID struggle for periods of time during the regular season.)

 

Passrush is important of course. It's just the stats that can be misleading.

 

Most definitely. I just wasn't sure why he was saying the Colts were 30th last year. 

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I believe BPA was always going to happen, but with re-signing all the positions Colt's needed reinforcements at, it's even a better position to be in. 

 

I think/hope Wilkins is there, or Lawrence for the first pick. I still see TE, Safety, DE, LB and WR in the cards. 

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I think we possibly have a top 10 roster in the league but around a top 5 team because we have a healthy Luck. The only teams for us that should be real tough to beat are the Pats, Saints, Rams, and Chiefs. The Chiefs have lost 2 good pass rushers so far though and could lose Hill? We have had a better offseason than the Chiefs. Ballard still has the draft too :thmup:.

 

I think we are just as good as the Chargers, Ravens, Browns, Texans, Bears, Eagles. Definitely finally look better than the mess in Pittsburgh haha 

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2 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

Based on how the quick passing game works, pass rush up the middle some think is more important. In the case of two guys with similar grades i would bet the house CB choses an inside guy with rush, push the pocket ability.

Yep. Even though as a fan, I see depth issues that alarm me with T and S, inside pocket pressure is such a powerful coin. If we can get a stronger push in the middle, this defense will elevate quickly. 

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I would say there are several spots that could use a solid lift, but that there isn’t any spot that is an enormous weakness.

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18 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

Yep. Even though as a fan, I see depth issues that alarm me with T and S, inside pocket pressure is such a powerful coin. If we can get a stronger push in the middle, this defense will elevate quickly. 

 

 CB will address Safety.
 Odum looked a little lost out there, but i think we should expect him to get better and compete. Checked his 40 time and it was around 4.57. Hmmm. CB has him on the roster for a reason.  lol
 If they don't believe in Clark at LT, even using 34 for the right prospect makes sense. Clark and Haeg are under the spotlight.

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Does the Colts have a backup C? Over the years Kelley gets banged up for a few weeks, and when he isn't in the lineup its night and day of a performance by the Oline. Do we have a dominant DT play (you need two), how about the CB position or solid #2 WR?

 

There are plenty holes with this team. Once again, these areas of concern are emphasized and brought out once Colts play high seeded teams the likes of PITT, NE, SAINTS, RAMS, Philly, etc.

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11 hours ago, Superman said:

I don't think Ballard is done, but I do think we're in good position. We'll see how things go over the next few weeks, and how the draft plays out.

 

But at the same time, I think there are several spots on the roster that still need improvement. On offense, RT is a question mark, and while Smith might provide the organic upgrade in his second year, that's not a given. I still think WR2/3 is a question mark, even with Funchess (I'm hoping we come away from the draft with one of these slotty receivers), and TE is a question, depending on Doyle's ability to stay healthy and return to form. Even RB, can Mack stay on the field, and if not, do we have another guy who can fill in for him?

 

On defense, we have questions at CB, which might be okay depending on how well Desir and Wilson play. I think we can do better at safety and while I like Autry and Lewis I would love to have a game-wrecking three tech (two more positions I think the draft will help with). There are questions about the young edge rushers. I think Walker is adequate at Mike, but we could do better. 

 

Long story short, I think the roster still needs a lot of work. I like where it's headed, but we're counting on the development of a lot of young guys, and other positions are manned by average to slightly above average players. I think we're still behind established contenders -- New England, Rams, Saints, Chargers, Eagles... jury's out on the Chiefs, considering the best part of their defense just took two big hits. 

Very fair assessment,  maybe I'm parsing words but there's a difference for me between glaring needs of a team and opportunities to upgrade.  Given what I think I know about you and our conversations in the past about the draft this team is positioned perfectly for what you believe in terms of philosophy, right?  If there was ever a time where we could BPA a draft and move up and down without 'fear' this is it.   I mean, I'm looking to Superman this draft, I'm in your boat for a change!

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6 hours ago, Rackeen305 said:

Does the Colts have a backup C? Over the years Kelley gets banged up for a few weeks, and when he isn't in the lineup its night and day of a performance by the Oline. Do we have a dominant DT play (you need two), how about the CB position or solid #2 WR?

 

There are plenty holes with this team. Once again, these areas of concern are emphasized and brought out once Colts play high seeded teams the likes of PITT, NE, SAINTS, RAMS, Philly, etc.

Yes, good points, I'll take a shot at each for fun.

 

I know we're talking to Boehn about re-signing, Ballard has FA's in priority order so you can see who he prioritized and we're now getting to some of the 'less critical' guys signed.  I do expect him re-signed and I think he's a solid back up.

 

As far as a dominant DT is concerned, we got very solid play up front last year, I wouldn't call DT a weakness, could it be upgraded, perhaps but I'm not sure who you think is "dominant" that is a fit for us, which is likely why you will see addressed on draft day (my guess).  

 

I happen to agree with you on CB, I'd like to see an upgrade here even with the emergence of Desir, Moore and an improving Wilson, I'm up for an infusion of raw talent at CB but not over a DT early ( to your earlier point),

 

As for a number 2 WR, I would prepare yourself for that answer already being on this roster (I assume we'll re-sign Inman).  I fully expect our number two to be Funchess or Inman.   If you look across the spectrum of weapons and you see: Doyle, Hilton, Ebron, Mack, Funchess, Inman, and Cain (for those of you living that dream), then I don't see WR2 as a super high priority given the totality of talent, buuuuut....that's just me.

 

Final point, both players and coaches will be in year two of these systems...

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32 minutes ago, Rally5 said:

Yes, good points, I'll take a shot at each for fun.

 

I know we're talking to Boehn about re-signing, Ballard has FA's in priority order so you can see who he prioritized and we're now getting to some of the 'less critical' guys signed.  I do expect him re-signed and I think he's a solid back up.

 

As far as a dominant DT is concerned, we got very solid play up front last year, I wouldn't call DT a weakness, could it be upgraded, perhaps but I'm not sure who you think is "dominant" that is a fit for us, which is likely why you will see addressed on draft day (my guess).  

 

I happen to agree with you on CB, I'd like to see an upgrade here even with the emergence of Desir, Moore and an improving Wilson, I'm up for an infusion of raw talent at CB but not over a DT early ( to your earlier point),

 

As for a number 2 WR, I would prepare yourself for that answer already being on this roster (I assume we'll re-sign Inman).  I fully expect our number two to be Funchess or Inman.   If you look across the spectrum of weapons and you see: Doyle, Hilton, Ebron, Mack, Funchess, Inman, and Cain (for those of you living that dream), then I don't see WR2 as a super high priority given the totality of talent, buuuuut....that's just me.

 

Final point, both players and coaches will be in year two of these systems...

 

If you believe that's enough to hang with the high-powered offenses in the league (the ones that made the "Final Four" last year), you're probably in for a rude awakening. I hope they draft a playmaker at WR like Marquise Brown, Parris Campbell, or Deebo Samuel, someone that can do something after they get the ball in their hands. Let TY, the TE's, and Funchess play the traditional roles, and insert one of the guys above, lined up everywhere, for jet sweeps, screens, slot-WR, a swiss army knife of you will. I think those guys could be our Tyreek Hill, a true difference maker, or playmaker. Add THAT to what we have on offense, and I think we're getting close to what the other contenders are doing on offense, but we could potentially have the best defense of the bunch if the chips fall in the right spots the rest of the offseason. I think they grab either a S, 3T, or Edge with 26, and hopefully a legit playmaking WR with the Jets pick, and we'd be looking SB-level formidable entering next season. 

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7 hours ago, Rackeen305 said:

Does the Colts have a backup C? Over the years Kelley gets banged up for a few weeks, and when he isn't in the lineup its night and day of a performance by the Oline. Do we have a dominant DT play (you need two), how about the CB position or solid #2 WR?

 

There are plenty holes with this team. Once again, these areas of concern are emphasized and brought out once Colts play high seeded teams the likes of PITT, NE, SAINTS, RAMS, Philly, etc.

 

I think the holes are exposed more so due to lack of experience and coaching then actual talent level. Pagano was always in over his head against the top teams I felt and Reich is just getting into the grove of things with this being his first year as a coach in the league going up against the Belichick's and Reid's of the world who have been doing this for a long time as the chief decision maker.

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CB should be aggressive and move up into the top 15 and get an impact player (assuming he sees one there of course), not just a solid contributor at 26 imo and beyond.  

 

I don't recall us ever being in such a solid position with our current roster.  Now is the time to go get a player, not wait.  Even if we end up with just half the picks we currently have, I'd take it if that meant getting more potential impact players. 

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1 hour ago, HorsePower_ said:

 

I think the holes are exposed more so due to lack of experience and coaching then actual talent level. Pagano was always in over his head against the top teams I felt and Reich is just getting into the grove of things with this being his first year as a coach in the league going up against the Belichick's and Reid's of the world who have been doing this for a long time as the chief decision maker.

Reich might be a new HC, but he's not a newbie, and he did beat Belichick the year before as OC. Pederson who was the HC, was only in his second year as HC, and has about the same combined years as OC and HC as Reich. 

 

Let's not forget Pagano's first three years were pretty darn good. Not a big fan of him, but our issues in 15-17 were more on Grigsuck than Pagano. 

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9 hours ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

 

If you believe that's enough to hang with the high-powered offenses in the league (the ones that made the "Final Four" last year), you're probably in for a rude awakening. I hope they draft a playmaker at WR like Marquise Brown, Parris Campbell, or Deebo Samuel, someone that can do something after they get the ball in their hands. Let TY, the TE's, and Funchess play the traditional roles, and insert one of the guys above, lined up everywhere, for jet sweeps, screens, slot-WR, a swiss army knife of you will. I think those guys could be our Tyreek Hill, a true difference maker, or playmaker. Add THAT to what we have on offense, and I think we're getting close to what the other contenders are doing on offense, but we could potentially have the best defense of the bunch if the chips fall in the right spots the rest of the offseason. I think they grab either a S, 3T, or Edge with 26, and hopefully a legit playmaking WR with the Jets pick, and we'd be looking SB-level formidable entering next season. 

I'm not in for any rude awakenings.  Go tell me about the superstars on the Philly SB offense or the stellar New England wideouts.  If we get a superstar offensive player that's great, I don't expect to see that happen but hey...

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8 hours ago, cbear said:

CB should be aggressive and move up into the top 15 and get an impact player (assuming he sees one there of course), not just a solid contributor at 26 imo and beyond.  

 

I don't recall us ever being in such a solid position with our current roster.  Now is the time to go get a player, not wait.  Even if we end up with just half the picks we currently have, I'd take it if that meant getting more potential impact players. 

Disagree. There will be an impact player at 26 and 34. If you trade one of these picks, make it 34 to a team that has been salivating overnight for a player since the end of Day 1. I wouldn't move down but a little in round 2 and extract a high price from the other team., whether picks this year or next. 

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