Funny conspiracy theory. What if Ballard got credentialed for Utah state to throw people off. The reason he no showed was he was actually at Utah looking at this guy. Lol
draft season is full of smoke and conspiracy. Haha
I wouldn't say I'm particularly good with evaluating players coming out of college. And especially with projecting them forward(I have some hits, but I also have some huge misses). I'm doing this for fun and for engagement with other Colts fans(I just like talking about football and the team and the future of the team, etc.), I don't have any illusions about my abilities as an evaluator - think of it like this - even the best FOs in the league miss on about half their picks... and most people here(me included) don't have anywhere close to their knowledge, their time to watch players, their resources - financial or scouting resources, their intel on players(this is the biggest difference IMO between amateurs like us that watch on the internet and what the teams can do - they have soooooo much more information about those players and what makes them tick).
Yeah, a lot of it is luck. This is why I love that Ballard realizes that and has said that this is the reason he prefers to accumulate picks, which he has done. This is one of the biggest paradoxes in the league. Imagine you are prospective GM for a team and you go to an interview with the owner but instead of telling him "I'm the best man for the job, because I can evaluate better than everyone else", the real answer is more along the lines of "look, most teams/GMs in the league have about the same success with drafts over the long haul, so hire me to turn the wheel of fortune for the team". In essence, the answer is - you have to be humble about just how not good the success rate of draft picks is(even for the best GMs) and you have to devise a strategy in another way - namely - instead of just trying to have high success rate per pick... just get more picks and try to hold the success rate similar. This is how you shift the odds in your favor. You are more likely to get 5 starters out of 10 picks than out of 7 picks.
The reality is - even if we draft a QB in round 1, chances are about 50-50 that he's going to bust... but then again... those are roughly the chances for every other position too. Maybe just a little bit more or less of some other positions, but QB is so important that it doesn't matter. The reward of getting a great QB is way too big. You just have to keep trying until you get the guy.
Manning and Luck are kind of exceptions though. I haven't really seen people talk about many other QBs in that way. For example, Trevor Lawrence is probably the one I've heard people talk in most similar terms as a can't miss QB, but even he had his questionable play to begin this season. We will see what happens with him next year and if he will enter the draft in a similar standing as Luck. Luck is the most can't miss QB I've seen and I haven't seen anyone close since.(this is as a prospect coming out of college) Even the Mariotas or Winstons or Mayfields and Darnolds of the world had a lot of more doubt.
BTW, there is something that IMO gets underrated a bit - the environment those QBs enter into. Very few are can't miss that can transcend a chaotic team atmosphere, bad coaching or OLine, lack of weapons, etc. This is why what Luck did was so amazing and why he was a can't miss prospect - just look back at what he had to deal with... horrible coaching, horrible OLines, horrible defenses... we take 100 yard rushers for granted... Luck didn't have a 100 yard rusher to help him for what was it? 5 years straight or something? Luck was special. Too bad we didn't have the right management and coaching to keep him healthy and give him a team capable of competing.
So yeah, I think whoever we draft will have much better situation to succeed than a lot of other young QBs enter. We have good coaching staff, we have good OLine... we need better weapons, but that can be fixed through allocating resources there.
Nelson and Leonard can’t be extended until after their third year. They need one one season to be elgible. Our oline is going to have some major dollars wrapped up in it one Nelson signs after next year.