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A New Name to Consider for Pick 34....

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4 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

What is interesting, is that while ranked 14, he's graded at just "above average". He didn't even make "good". 

 

And he's not below 20, either......

 

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13 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

What is interesting, is that while ranked 14, he's graded at just "above average". He didn't even make "good". 

Those are just designations based on the grade and are just by predetermined ranges of the grades. OTs have been having lower grades than defensive linemen for a while. Fewer OTs get the elite-good range of grade than DLinemen. It's just another sign of how hard it is to find good OTs. 

 

Just an example... the 13th ranked EDGE defender in the league is Olivier Vernon at 86.3 grade... this is about 10 points higher than the respective grade for a similarly ranked OT(AC). 

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25 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

They also didn't meantion Kelly or Glowinski....    and they both enjoyed their best seasons.

 

Just because they didn't mention AC doesn't mean he's not very good.

 

If you want further proof...   what happened to the Colts OL once AC came back.   We won 9 of 11 games with dramatically improved offensive line play.    Most here don't think it's a coincidence the OL became a force when AC returned.    Yes,  there's plenty of credit to go around.   Everyone played to, or exceeded expectations.    But that includes AC as well.

 

Kelly was actually ranked as a top 25 guy on some lists. Haven't seen Glow on anything. 

Just because they had "their" best seasons, doesn't necessarily mean they're studs. If I had to rank our guys regardless of position, and purely on performance, I'd say it's 1) Nelson, 2) Smith, with Kelly and AC tied for 3, and Glow in 5th.  

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3 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

Kelly was actually ranked as a top 25 guy on some lists. Haven't seen Glow on anything. 

Just because they had "their" best seasons, doesn't necessarily mean they're studs. If I had to rank our guys regardless of position, and purely on performance, I'd say it's 1) Nelson, 2) Smith, with Kelly and AC tied for 3, and Glow in 5th.  

 

?????

 

You'd have Kelly and AC behind  Smith?     What am I not understanding?

 

By the way,  I didn't call anyone a stud.    I just explained why AC not being mentioned isn't a sign that he's not highly thought of....    it's not,   because he is.

 

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1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

And he's not below 20, either......

 

Well, that's PFF's opinion. Keep in mind PFF gets a lot of criticism over it's "ratings". PFF mixes opinion with numbers, while other stat/ranking services use only quantitative. 

 

But if you prefer opinion based, there are many opinion based rankings from the talking heads that do not include AC in the top 20. The purely quantitative rankings I've seen do not include AC either. 

 

If you rely just on PFF, it's pretty fair to say confirmation bias is playing a part. 

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9 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

Kelly was actually ranked as a top 25 guy on some lists. Haven't seen Glow on anything. 

Just because they had "their" best seasons, doesn't necessarily mean they're studs. If I had to rank our guys regardless of position, and purely on performance, I'd say it's 1) Nelson, 2) Smith, with Kelly and AC tied for 3, and Glow in 5th.  

I would go:

1. Nelson 1

2. Kelly 2

3. AC 3

When Kelly was out, Mack didn't run the ball as effectively. When AC came back from injury, that was when our Line started to jell. Nelson is #1 though IMO.

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12 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

Kelly was actually ranked as a top 25 guy on some lists. Haven't seen Glow on anything. 

Just because they had "their" best seasons, doesn't necessarily mean they're studs. If I had to rank our guys regardless of position, and purely on performance, I'd say it's 1) Nelson, 2) Smith, with Kelly and AC tied for 3, and Glow in 5th.  

AC has been our best lineman consistently since he was drafted. Now this doesn't say much because of the horrible O-line play altogether for most of that period of time. 

 

If I had to rank them last year it would be 1.a and 1.b Nelson and AC , 3 Kelly, 4. Smith, 5. Glowinski

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23 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

You're probably right. I just figured kicking inside from RT to RG and RG to LG would be less of a shift for the incumbent guys.

 

I think I might have convinced myself that a legit OT is something this team needs.

 

It seems that Smith is legit at RT.  But we are going to have to replace Castonzo at some point.  We might be able to bring him back for a couple years as I don't feel that he's at the point that he only has 1 more good year left in him.  But he's got maybe 2 to 4 good years left.  So it's certainly not something we can overlook. 

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14 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

Well, that's PFF's opinion. Keep in mind PFF gets a lot of criticism over it's "ratings". PFF mixes opinion with numbers, while other stat/ranking services use only quantitative. 

 

But if you prefer opinion based, there are many opinion based rankings from the talking heads that do not include AC in the top 20. The purely quantitative rankings I've seen do not include AC either. 

 

If you rely just on PFF, it's pretty fair to say confirmation bias is playing a part. 

 

If you'd throw me a link or two,  I'd be happy to consider them.

 

For the record,  I don't think of AC as a top-10 OT,  never have.    But I think he's closer to top 10 then I think he is to being below 20.    I don't think there's a case for that.

 

But I'd love to read one......

 

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15 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

?????

 

You'd have Kelly and AC behind  Smith?     What am I not understanding?

 

By the way,  I didn't call anyone a stud.    I just explained why AC not being mentioned isn't a sign that he's not highly thought of....    it's not,   because he is.

 

Based on age, performance, and long term stability at position, yes. If you told me I could only keep 3 OL, I'd take Nelson obviously, Smith, and Kelly. Kelly is ranked higher at position than AC and is 5 years younger. Smith is younger, has a great ceiling, and has position flexibility. 

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38 minutes ago, stitches said:

What do you think about my out of the box idea? 

 

You know I'm a sucker for outside the box thinking....

 

But you may also know that I'm very conservative....    I'd prefer not to trade AC and I'd prefer not to get value from a player  (Waynes)  that plays a position that Ballard doesn't value as much.   I'd rather Minnesota throw back a different player that might appeal to the Colts more.    I just don't know who that would be?

 

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1 minute ago, Irish YJ said:

Based on age, performance, and long term stability at position, yes. If you told me I could only keep 3 OL, I'd take Nelson obviously, Smith, and Kelly. Kelly is ranked higher at position than AC and is 5 years younger. Smith is younger, has a great ceiling, and has position flexibility. 

 

OK....   if you're building for the future,  that's a fair argument.

 

But if you're only interested in today,  this season,  then I think the rankings would be different.

 

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4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

You know I'm a sucker for outside the box thinking....

 

But you may also know that I'm very conservative....    I'd prefer not to trade AC and I'd prefer not to get value from a player  (Waynes)  that plays a position that Ballard doesn't value as much.   I'd rather Minnesota throw back a different player that might appeal to the Colts more.    I just don't know who that would be?

 

Yeah. I would prefer we keep AC, but my scenario was in case it seems like Ballard won't be able to strike a deal and in case AC is looking for more money than we want to give him.

 

Waynes addition was just me getting cheeky and combining rumors. You can do it with just AC for 1st, if you prefer. 

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Just now, NewColtsFan said:

 

OK....   if you're building for the future,  that's a fair argument.

 

But if you're only interested in today,  this season,  then I think the rankings would be different.

 

 

Like I've said, I really like AC. And without a doubt, I want to keep him. I just don't have as much confidence in him as I do others. And that goes for short and long term. Out of the OL, I think CB would go father dollars (respectively at their position) and length on Q, Kelly, and Smith, than AC. 

 

And let's be honest. AC is benefiting a ton from the monster standing beside him. Before Q, AC while he might have been our best OL, was not killing it IMO.  

 

Give me some time on the links of rankings/ratings. I'll also dig up some of the criticisms of PFF. I like PFF, but they do have some big misses, and their ratings/rankings have a lot of head scratchers. I love stats and stuff, but IMO, you have to take it all from different sources, and form a composite view or average. 

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9 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

 

Like I've said, I really like AC. And without a doubt, I want to keep him. I just don't have as much confidence in him as I do others. And that goes for short and long term. Out of the OL, I think CB would go father dollars (respectively at their position) and length on Q, Kelly, and Smith, than AC. 

 

And let's be honest. AC is benefiting a ton from the monster standing beside him. Before Q, AC while he might have been our best OL, was not killing it IMO.  

 

Give me some time on the links of rankings/ratings. I'll also dig up some of the criticisms of PFF. I like PFF, but they do have some big misses, and their ratings/rankings have a lot of head scratchers. I love stats and stuff, but IMO, you have to take it all from different sources, and form a composite view or average. 

 

I don't understand the bold at all...

 

AC enjoyed his best season last year, I mean 17, not 18.    Ballard said he thought AC was playing the best ball of his career.     And that was WITHOUT Q playing next to him.     He didn't become good overnight this year.   He's been good for a while now....

 

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3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I don't understand the bold at all...

 

AC enjoyed his best season last year.    Ballard said he thought AC was playing the best ball of his career.     And that was WITHOUT Q playing next to him.     He didn't become good overnight this year.   He's been good for a while now....

 

Yep, his grade was in the 80s last year, which was a career year by PFF... and also by Ballard's evaluation. 

 

In fact you can argue that the OLine continued being trash this season without him and only got its % together once he returned... this includes Quenton. The point is... the whole left side of the line(Kelly included) has been playing out of their mind once AC returned. They are developing quite a chemistry between them and they are playing well both as a unit and as individuals. 

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4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I don't understand the bold at all...

 

AC enjoyed his best season last year.    Ballard said he thought AC was playing the best ball of his career.     And that was WITHOUT Q playing next to him.     He didn't become good overnight this year.   He's been good for a while now....

 

You're confusing me. What game was Q not beside AC? Q played 100% of the LG snaps last year. 

Again, not saying AC is bad. I am say though that when you put an all pro G next to you, it makes your job a ton easier. 

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3 minutes ago, stitches said:

Yep, his grade was in the 80s last year, which was a career year by PFF... and also by Ballard's evaluation. 

 

In fact you can argue that the OLine continued being trash this season without him and only got its % together once he returned... this includes Quenton. The point is... the whole left side of the line(Kelly included) has been playing out of their mind once AC returned. They are developing quite a chemistry between them and they are playing well both as a unit and as individuals. 

 

Clarification...   I was talking about AC's best season being 17,  not 18.   Ballard's first year and before QN showed up.

 

Sorry for the confusion....

 

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1 minute ago, Irish YJ said:

 

You're confusing me. What game was Q not beside AC? Q played 100% of the LG snaps last year. 

Again, not saying AC is bad. I am say though that when you put an all pro G next to you, it makes your job a ton easier. 

 

Sorry....   I meant 17,  not 18....   Ballard's first year.    He was graded highly as others have posted,  and Ballard publicly praised him saying he was playing the best ball of his career.   2017.  Sorry.

 

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1 minute ago, Irish YJ said:

 

You're confusing me. What game was Q not beside AC? Q played 100% of the LG snaps last year. 

Again, not saying AC is bad. I am say though that when you put an all pro G next to you, it makes your job a ton easier. 

The 2017 season. Ballard is on the record saying that this was AC's best season and also he was graded in the 80s(top 10 in the league) by PFF. He did that with a trash OLine around him. 

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4 minutes ago, stitches said:

Yep, his grade was in the 80s last year, which was a career year by PFF... and also by Ballard's evaluation. 

 

In fact you can argue that the OLine continued being trash this season without him and only got its % together once he returned... this includes Quenton. The point is... the whole left side of the line(Kelly included) has been playing out of their mind once AC returned. They are developing quite a chemistry between them and they are playing well both as a unit and as individuals. 

but you also said he was rated higher in 2017 than 2018???? 

having a career year in 2018, but rated higher in 2017 is not computing with my old brain. 

 

and wasn't AC out in the beginning of the season?? not sure that you would expect a line with an injured starter, plus two new guys to play well regardless. and smith wasn't even starting until like week 5 or 6, and that was at RG. Then moved to RT around week 8 or 9. the OL was a work in progress the first half of the season. not sure you can say AC was thing that made them good all of sudden. kelly was banged up early too.

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1 minute ago, Irish YJ said:

but you also said he was rated higher in 2017 than 2018???? 

having a career year in 2018, but rated higher in 2017 is not computing with my old brain. 

 

and wasn't AC out in the beginning of the season?? not sure that you would expect a line with an injured starter, plus two new guys to play well regardless. and smith wasn't even starting until like week 5 or 6, and that was at RG. Then moved to RT around week 8 or 9. the OL was a work in progress the first half of the season. not sure you can say AC was thing that made them good all of sudden. kelly was banged up early too.

Yes, when I said "last year" I meant 2017, when I said "this year" I meant 2018. The point is his best season so far has been without Quenton or much of anything good around him. 

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17 minutes ago, stitches said:

Yes, when I said "last year" I meant 2017, when I said "this year" I meant 2018. The point is his best season so far has been without Quenton or much of anything good around him. 

It's probably easier to stand out when you'r the best guy on a sub par group (2017). I hope is was the injury issue that kept him from his peak in 2018, and not simply age. I'd love to see him be 100% this year (2019) and ball out. Indy could be stellar, if not the top OL if hitting on all cylinders this year. I expect Q, Smith, and Kelly to all be improved. If AC gets back to form, and if Glow can take a step forward, things could be incredible.  

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NewColtsFan,

Here's some of the info I mentioned.

 

On PFF

https://bostonsportsmedia.com/2014/06/04/can-pro-football-focus-stats-be-blindly-trusted/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Football_Focus

Quote

PFF has been criticized by the analytics community regarding the accuracy and veracity of its ratings.[9] In contrast to the purely quantitative ratings released by sources like Football Outsiders, TeamRankings, and numberFire, PFF uses qualitative and opinion-based grading as the root of its 0-100 Player Grades -- not its advanced statistics. As such, the 0-100 Player Grades are not truly quantitative and could be seen as being prone to bias, poor sample sizing, or other issues.

 

On Kelly

PPF ranked 11th best center. But there's more.

Ranked top 25 out all linemen, also Colt's coaches calling him the best center in the NFL. While that's sunshine pumping, I do think he's top 5.

DeGuglielmo on Kelly:

Quote

“I have NO DOUBT that he is the best center in the national football league. He is the most complete guy. Turn the tape on, find me one better---strength, athletic ability, intelligence, quickness. You have to struggle to find a flaw, at that position, with that guy. He’s exactly what you want in terms of understanding the game and being a football player. It all starts with the middle guy. If you have an elite middle guy, that changes everything. Because we have a guy like Kelly, it allows us to adapt our protections and our run game completely different than if we were just playing with a run of the mill guy. A lot of the people don’t invest in that spot because they say they’ll make a guy. Listen, I’ve been on winning teams that just made a guy and that’s okay, too because there are a lot of those guys in the league. Those guys keep the league afloat. But when you have an elite one, that changes things a little bit. He’s not just elite physically. He’s elite mentally, too, which allows me to put a lot on him in the protection world. The difference in his play now and his play last year is he’s letting that natural aggression, his physical play is really coming out. He’s always been a smart guy. He’s always been athletic. But now, he’s actually physically moving people and getting after people on the second level and getting out to people on the edges. He is everything you look for. The fact that he’s finishing players better than last year shows up on game tape.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/colts’-ryan-kelly-among-pff’s-top-25-offensive-linemen/ar-BBQP2gq

https://www.1070thefan.com/blogs/kevins-corner/colts-coverage/colts-believe-ryan-kelly-best-center-nfl

 

On Smith

Made PFF's all rookie team, and also ranked him 25th best T on the season. AC was not listed (which is why I question his 2018 rating/grade... doesn't compute when Smith is graded lower, but makes the top 25 OL list, and AC is left off).

DeGuglielmo on Smith:

Quote

“We had him (at right tackle) a little bit in camp for a reason. He is a tremendous athlete. He is big. I don’t really go by the labels. People say he is mainly a guard, or he is a natural guard. I’m not buying that. He’s an offensive lineman, he is a football player. How many times do they draft a tackle to play guard? They do it all the time. I mean this guy is six foot six and a half. He played some (at right tackle in college). He played tight end, so does that qualify? The bottom line is he’s a good athlete, a good football player, smart, tough, strong. Probably one of the strongest guys on the team. I don’t know, if he had played for Michigan State he would have been a tackle and he probably would have been a first-round tackle. So it’s circumstance. He’s an offensive lineman. He’s a big, strong, hardworking guy. You can build on that. Has he had some struggles? I think everybody has struggles when they play as a rookie no matter who you are, including Quenton. He’s had his up moments, a few blemishes but those two young men are as good as you can get.”

https://www.colts.com/news/colts-first-three-2018-draft-picks-make-pro-football-focus-all-rookie-team

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-2018-nfl-offensive-line-rankings-all-32-teams-units-after-week-17

 

On AC

DeGuglielmo on Castonzo

Quote

Anthony is no longer an elite guy around a bunch of guys. He’s around a bunch of elite guys. That’s a lot of relief off of him. He doesn’t have to be the guy and carry the line. He’s just one piece of a line that’s some pretty talented cats.”

 

 

There's a bunch more out there. I didn't include any on Q as there's really no debate lol. Anyway, that's why I ranked them as such.

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I'm starting to think the Houston signing today might have actually increased the chances of Simmons being our pick at 34.  

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