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[Erickson] Clayton Geathers is finalizing a deal to return to the Colts (Merge)

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10 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Forgive me for hopping in here...

 

The reason I personally don't accept the studies shown above is because, IMO, they overstate the importance of salary as it relates to drafted players. In the NFL, the better player is always more valuable, especially at critical positions. That's true, even if there's a significant pay disparity between two players.

 

The better player is more likely to be a playmaker/difference maker, he'll reach greater heights, and he'll probably help your team for a longer period of time. Roster quality is more important than cap distribution, and even though this analysis compares drafted players to replacement level players, I don't think it's truly possible to quantify the difference between a playmaker and a replacement level player.

 

For instance, I'd rather have Aaron Rodgers than Kirk Cousins, even though Rodgers makes $6m/year more, and a statistical analysis of their production vs pay in 2018 would probably say that Cousins is as valuable or maybe more valuable than Rodgers. Still, in real life, we know which player is more valuable, which player is better, and which player is a true franchise level player.

 

And I think a case-by-case analysis would reveal a deep flaw in this logic that claims that pay differential primarily makes the 64th pick more valuable than the 4th pick. Especially when we analyze the statistical likelihood of players at different points in the draft becoming high level players (Pro Bowls, All Pros, HOFers, statistical league leaders, etc.), and sustaining that level of performance.

 

I do think this kind of analysis can be valuable at certain positions. For instance, TEs tend to be devalued in the draft, so while you will probably find good TEs later in the draft, it might make sense to strike on a high quality TE prospect in the mid-to-late first round, where other teams won't take them. You might be getting a top ten player at #25. When you identify a discrepancy like that, it makes sense to adjust draft strategy. I haven't done any kind of deep analysis, but I also believe there's a discrepancy at WR in recent years; I think WR is overvalued in the first round, especially elite athletes. But this analysis has nothing to do with the salary discrepancy.

 

TL;DR, I think these studies are overly reliant on the discrepancy in salary between high draft picks and later draft picks in establishing "value," although I think it's possible for certain positions to be overvalued early in the draft, or undervalued later in the draft.

 

The whole salary aspect of this is interesting to me, but I don't totally by in to their opinions. 

I was providing the link more for the pure data on draft success at various positions. 

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2 minutes ago, Caleb3502 said:

 

The link wasn't working for me either. 

thanks that's a wonderful super cheap deal like what I was hoping it would be 

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3 minutes ago, Superman said:

One year, $3m max value. Makes sense.

About the same value I gave it in my first mock off-season. It's weird how I either got the contracts almost exactly correct or was waaaaaaaaay off... like... I thought Collins will get 4/44 and instead he got 80M contract... I thought Justin Coleman will get 2/8 and instead he got 4/36... 

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Wow thats a low ball deal. I thought he would atleast get 5 mil. Talk about taking one for the team

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5 minutes ago, stitches said:

About the same value I gave it in my first mock off-season. It's weird how I either got the contracts almost exactly correct or was waaaaaaaaay off... like... I thought Collins will get 4/44 and instead he got 80M contract... I thought Justin Coleman will get 2/8 and instead he got 4/36... 

 

I wound up being close on most of mine, but that's not typical. It's usually 50/50.

 

I was way off on Adrian Phillips, and I'm shocked. Just looked him up, he got one year, $2m. That's outrageous.

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That's great value. The details were a bit more complex than I expected, so may be the reason why it took so long to release. Love the roster bonus per game.

 

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3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I wound up being close on most of mine, but that's not typical. It's usually 50/50.

 

I was way off on Adrian Phillips, and I'm shocked. Just looked him up, he got one year, $2m. That's outrageous.

For whatever it's worth, PFF graded all of our safeties higher than Phillips. 

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22 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Forgive me for hopping in here...

 

The reason I personally don't accept the studies shown above is because, IMO, they overstate the importance of salary as it relates to drafted players. In the NFL, the better player is always more valuable, especially at critical positions. That's true, even if there's a significant pay disparity between two players.

 

The better player is more likely to be a playmaker/difference maker, he'll reach greater heights, and he'll probably help your team for a longer period of time. Roster quality is more important than cap distribution, and even though this analysis compares drafted players to replacement level players, I don't think it's truly possible to quantify the difference between a playmaker and a replacement level player.

 

I have to disagree with the first statement. Roster quality is paramount...but very hard to achieve without optimizing salary cap distribution on some level. I also think it comes down how you define value. 

 

Replacement level is subjective. But you have to have some baseline to start assigning to positive value players (because not all players have positive value). In MLB, WAR (wins above replacement) has been around for a long time and is widely accepted.

 

In this case, I don't know how accurate their replacement level is. They even give the caveat that their replacement rating of 77 might be too high or too low.

 

I think of this data more about how valuable Day Two picks can be for building a roster (because of surplus value)...and also reinforcement of positional value.

 

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3 hours ago, Caleb3502 said:

 

The link wasn't working for me either. 

 

Pretty close to what I thought he would get...after Haha signed a 1/$3M deal. Thought it might have a second year option.

 

I think Ballard knew he wouldn't have much of a market...so he sat back and waited out Geathers...and ended up getting him for less than he tendered Farley. 

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Total cap hit is 3 mill. with incentives.

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36 minutes ago, dw49 said:

Total cap hit is 3 mill. with incentives.

Sounds good! You have a link to confirm it?

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I think that is a nice price to pay for a guy who fits the system.

 

We could still go out and get another above avg saftey as depth. 

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So much for ballard rewarding his own that play hard. He said he liked him and wanted him back and then plays hardball with him and gives him peanuts. I hope Geathers neck holds up and he has a good healthy season and then use that to get decent money for himself and families financial future.

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29 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

So much for ballard rewarding his own that play hard. He said he liked him and wanted him back and then plays hardball with him and gives him peanuts. I hope Geathers neck holds up and he has a good healthy season and then use that to get decent money for himself and families financial future.

You realize Geathers signed the contract, right? If he had a problem with it, he wouldn't have signed it.

 

Everyone hopes he plays well and earns a big contract, but he signed the deal that he signed for a reason. Dont go hammering Ballard for this.

 

Especially after all hes done ALL FREE AGENCY is reward and bring back our guys. It's been all Colts and 2 outsiders. Don't pretend Ballard doesnt live up to his word.

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1 hour ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

So much for ballard rewarding his own that play hard. He said he liked him and wanted him back and then plays hardball with him and gives him peanuts. I hope Geathers neck holds up and he has a good healthy season and then use that to get decent money for himself and families financial future.

You have a problem with Ballard playing hard ball with Geathers and then back that up with you hope Geathers neck holds up? :scratch:

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Heck I missed this signing. Out on vacation and trying to always sift through 10 pages to find someone signed is crazy. Almost wished the site had a thread by mods to just show who signed and what that contract is, locked and unable to add comments to. 

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13 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

So much for ballard rewarding his own that play hard. He said he liked him and wanted him back and then plays hardball with him and gives him peanuts. I hope Geathers neck holds up and he has a good healthy season and then use that to get decent money for himself and families financial future.

Ballard did not play hardball with him. He went and tested the market. He got to see what his true worth was. If anything it shows Ballard was very honest with the amount he offered him. What he did with Geathers goes along way. Geathers could of said I am leaving your trying to low ball me. But by testing the market he got to see the colts offer was fair.

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14 hours ago, CanuckColtsFan said:

I think that is a nice price to pay for a guy who fits the system.

 

We could still go out and get another above avg saftey as depth. 

I think we will see us get one in the draft. Probably will use one of the first three picks.

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