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10 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

That is why I feel the secondary is where our best value will be found at #26, still hoping there is 1 or 2 bone headed team that lets a DL slide by.

 

I'm gonna rewatch Taylor Rapp. I think I'm missing something there because everyone seems to love him.

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19 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

That's why I asked why you disagree with me. I think the DL class is better than the WR class, for sure. But I think the best DL are going in the top 20, and I think only 2 receivers are likely to go that high. So when we're on the clock at #26, the DL that are available aren't that exciting to me. 

 

I like to take in big boards at this time. I like mocks, but their value is limited because people have competing priorities when doing mocks, and I think they're picks wind up being influenced by at lot of nonsense. But the big boards are just meant to be a ranking of prospects, not tied to teams. 

 

So it seems like consensus suggests the best DL available at #26 will be maybe Clelin Ferrell and Christian Wilkins (but maybe not), Dexter Lawrence, Jerry Tillery, Jeffrey Simmons, Jaylon Ferguson, Dre'Mont Jones, Jachai Polite, Zach Allen, Charles Omenihu... I think we can assume Simmons and Ferguson aren't on the Colts board, especially in the first. I think Ferrell and Wilkins are both gone, whether I like them or not.

 

Out of them all, only Tillery seems like a good pick, and I'm not necessarily over the moon about him at this point. Lawrence doesn't move me, and I think the rest are second rounders, or later. I might have left someone out, but I don't think so...

 

On the other hand, I like most of the receivers that are most likely available in the second and third round. And I think there will be a ton of them still there, because most likely only three receivers go in the first round (and I could be wrong about that, but that seems to be consensus). I think we could potentially get someone like Parris Campbell or Riley Ridley even at the end of the third. To me, that's value.

 

So I think the DL with first round value are going to be gone by #26, and I'm not super excited about any of the rest of them. 

Fanspeak have published the latest composite board on their Draft simulator. This is a draft board that takes into account all draft boards published on their site and ranks the players taking into account all of those boards... here's the board if you want to see what the general consensus seems to be:

 

https://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/preview.php?board_id=19

 

DL players that are going to be there in our range(+/- 2 spots): Jerry Tillery, Jeffery Simmons, Jachai Polite, Dexter Lawrence, Dremont Jones... 

 

WRs that are going to be there in our range: everyone except for DK Metcalf

 

Some interesting prospects that might be there from other positions: OT Andrew Dillard , all safeties, MAYBE... BIG MAYBE... Devin Bush... the CBs are likely to be gone(Murphy, Baker, Greedy)... 

 

In general... if the draft goes without much surprises it seems like we will have to choose between Jerry Tillery/Jeffery Simmons, a WR or a safety... 

 

I know it's not sexy but that's probably the most likely outcome here... to me it seems like all it takes for us to take a safety or a WR is for Ballard to not be sold on Tillery and to not want to take injured, red flagged Simmons... It's not that far fetched. 

 

Now on draft night there always are surprises so maybe one or two of the other players will drop to us, but who knows... 

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4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm gonna rewatch Taylor Rapp. I think I'm missing something there because everyone seems to love him.

 

The safety rankings are all over the place too. I remember the Cardinals get Deone Bucannon with pick No.27 mainly because he could double down as smaller LB, blitzer along with being able to play safety. That versatility is what got him into round 1.

 

Guys like Chauncey Gardner Johnson, are ranked Round 1 material, for their versatility, on some sites. Same with Nasir Adderley too.

 

Abrams' coverage is what I'd want to know more about to justify a Round 1 billing. 

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4 minutes ago, stitches said:

DL players that are going to be there in our range(+/- 2 spots): Jerry Tillery, Jeffery Simmons, Jachai Polite, Dexter Lawrence, Dremont Jones... 

 

 

When's the last time they updated that? I wonder if Polite is still viewed as a top 50 player, they have him at #25.

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9 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Derek.....

 

Read my exchange with Superman again.     We're not talking about whether the Colts should take a WR in the first round.

 

We're talking about comparing the over DL class with the overall WR class.    Totally different issue.

 

Take another look.....  

Yes.   I understand.  And as SM posted right after your post.   I was understanding the WR at 26 may be the BPA between the two positions 

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1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

When's the last time they updated that? I wonder if Polite is still viewed as a top 50 player, they have him at #25.

Yesterday, but keep in mind not all the boards they use are updated. Polite is going to be falling out of R1 IMO. 

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2 minutes ago, stitches said:

Yesterday, but keep in mind not all the boards they use are updated. Polite is going to be falling out of R1 IMO. 

 

Good point. By next week, everyone should be updated.

 

I never felt Polite was a first rounder, so seeing him at #25 is still kind of a head-scratcher.

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2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Good point. By next week, everyone should be updated.

 

I never felt Polite was a first rounder, so seeing him at #25 is still kind of a head-scratcher.

He used to be in the teens in the previous edition of the composite board(before the combine)... so he's fallen some... and IMO he will keep falling. Would you draft him anywhere on day 2? Or would he be a "not even with a 10 foot pole" type of prospect for you? 

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6 minutes ago, stitches said:

He used to be in the teens in the previous edition of the composite board(before the combine)... so he's fallen some... and IMO he will keep falling. Would you draft him anywhere on day 2? Or would he be a "not even with a 10 foot pole" type of prospect for you? 

 

I can't say because I've only watched him a little bit, but I didn't really find him impressive. He has some traits on film, but now with his bad workouts I wonder if those traits are just flashes or due to competition or what. There are also whispers about his character. And he might not be a great scheme fit, seems more like an OLB, struggles against the run, and isn't a good tackler.

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5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I can't say because I've only watched him a little bit, but I didn't really find him impressive. He has some traits on film, but now with his bad workouts I wonder if those traits are just flashes or due to competition or what. There are also whispers about his character. And he might not be a great scheme fit, seems more like an OLB, struggles against the run, and isn't a good tackler.

his tests are so poor because he gained a ton of weight and it wasn't good weight. You can see it on pictures, his body looks flabby and out of shape rather than bulked up in a professional manner(for example like Brian Burns did)... he doesn't seem to "get it", his interviews have reportedly been horrific too, not just the workout and the pro-day. His media availability was bad too... he's the guy that said "I don't watch film of myself, why would I?" or something of that sort. Pretty much all the mumbles before the combine about his questionable football 'character' seem to have turned right. It's a shame. He had some nice flashes in college. 

 

 

So let me ask you... Lets say you get those specific DL prospects + Andrew Dillard + all the safeties + all the WRs without Metcalf... who are you taking there, but none of the CBs? I would seriously be tempted to take Dillard... 

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40 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm gonna rewatch Taylor Rapp. I think I'm missing something there because everyone seems to love him.


As somebody who was one of his bigger fans I've cooled on him a bit, and not just because of the slow 40 time. Rewatching his tape I've just been kinda whelmed by him.

In fact I've kinda cooled down on most of these safeties. They're all pretty inconsistent on tape. Not that I wouldn't like any of them in the 2nd, especially at #59, but I do hope we can get better value in the 1st.

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10 minutes ago, stitches said:

So let me ask you... Lets say you get those specific DL prospects + Andrew Dillard + all the safeties + all the WRs without Metcalf... who are you taking there, but none of the CBs? I would seriously be tempted to take Dillard... 

 

Depends. I'm not sure how I feel about Dillard vs Risner and Little. Also not sure how I feel about Tillery, seems like he's the safest DL still on the board. Dillard seems reasonable. Value at #34 and #59 for safeties and receivers is a factor.

 

chad72 called a trade back a cop out, but I think that has to be on the table.

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9 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Depends. I'm not sure how I feel about Dillard vs Risner and Little. Also not sure how I feel about Tillery, seems like he's the safest DL still on the board. Dillard seems reasonable. Value at #34 and #59 for safeties and receivers is a factor.

 

chad72 called a trade back a cop out, but I think that has to be on the table.

Yeah. I love Tillery and I would draft him without much hesitation there, but if Ballard doesn't... it looks like the trade down option might be the best one... 

 

Or if we expect to not have anyone we love there... maybe a trade up? Who in this draft would you trade up for and what's the absolute maximum that you would give up to get them... lets say somewhere in the teens? (we are talking about reasonable options, not Quinnen or Bosa or Josh Allen who are all almost certainly going top 5)

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9 minutes ago, stitches said:

Yeah. I love Tillery and I would draft him without much hesitation there, but if Ballard doesn't... it looks like the trade down option might be the best one... 

 

Or if we expect to not have anyone we love there... maybe a trade up? Who in this draft would you trade up for and what's the absolute maximum that you would give up to get them... lets say somewhere in the teens? (we are talking about reasonable options, not Quinnen or Bosa or Josh Allen who are all almost certainly going top 5)

 

I don't know. Maybe if Gary or Burns are dropping... I haven't watched either, besides just some quick viewings, but they are consensus top 20 guys at a premium position. Seems like Sweat has moved ahead of both of them.

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2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't know. Maybe if Gary or Burns are dropping... I haven't watched either, besides just some quick viewings, but they are consensus top 20 guys at a premium position. Seems like Sweat has moved ahead of both of them.

Yah... Are you worried about Gary's lack of production? 

 

Would you give up one of the seconds to move there to get him or Burns(BTW it seems like Ballard is doing a TON of work on Burns. There are reports that we've already had multiple 2-3 hour meetings and conversations with him).

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As good as our team was this year I would be ok trading up to get that one guy we are missing. 

 

I cant wait to see Turay this next season. I think he is going to surprise with how much he has improved. He looks like a beast and is working so hard to get where he needs to go. Then if we could get burns watch out here we come.

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19 minutes ago, stitches said:

Yah... Are you worried about Gary's lack of production? 

 

Would you give up one of the seconds to move there to get him or Burns(BTW it seems like Ballard is doing a TON of work on Burns. There are reports that we've already had multiple 2-3 hour meetings and conversations with him).

 

I don't know enough about Gary or Burns at this point. Gary's lack of production and his injury might be why he drops.

 

But if Ballard and Co really like Burns, and it seems like they do, then I could understand moving up for him. I don't know if I would want to give up one of the seconds to get him, it would depend on how far up we'd have to go. 

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14 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

As good as our team was this year I would be ok trading up to get that one guy we are missing. 

 

I cant wait to see Turay this next season. I think he is going to surprise with how much he has improved. He looks like a beast and is working so hard to get where he needs to go. Then if we could get burns watch out here we come.

I agree, Turray could have something of a breakout year if he gets snaps in with Houston lined up on the other side. He'd be seeing plenty of one on ones and i think he could be a trouble maker right outta the gate.

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19 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't know enough about Gary or Burns at this point. Gary's lack of production and his injury might be why he drops.

 

But if Ballard and Co really like Burns, and it seems like they do, then I could understand moving up for him. I don't know if I would want to give up one of the seconds to get him, it would depend on how far up we'd have to go. 

Giving up pick 89 would give us 145 points to trade up from 26 to about 20, 21, or 22.  PIT, SEA, or BALT.  All three could want Burns themselves, or any defensive player we would want.  So could TEN at 19 or HOU at 23, neither of whom would trade with us anyway.

 

Trading pick 59 gives us 310 points to trade up to 15 or 16, WASH, or CAR; just ahead of NYG at 17.

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6 hours ago, stitches said:

In general... if the draft goes without much surprises it seems like we will have to choose between Jerry Tillery/Jeffery Simmons, a WR or a safety... 

 

I know it's not sexy but that's probably the most likely outcome here... to me it seems like all it takes for us to take a safety or a WR is for Ballard to not be sold on Tillery and to not want to take injured, red flagged Simmons... It's not that far fetched. 

 

My thoughts as well.  And I like big boards too.  I've always want to put up a big board gridded to a position grade board.  place markers in position of need.  Then watch the names peel off and see if/how the board lands - 'talks' to you I've heard GM's say.  See if there are multiple guys graded about the same so you can go 'need'.  or if/when a very highly graded guy slips through and is the but not in a position of need.

 

But they are a lot of work, not sure I can get one done.  I'd like to compare other big boards, and read some true scouting reports before even trying.  That might be too much.

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7 hours ago, stitches said:

his tests are so poor because he gained a ton of weight and it wasn't good weight. You can see it on pictures, his body looks flabby and out of shape rather than bulked up in a professional manner(for example like Brian Burns did)... he doesn't seem to "get it", his interviews have reportedly been horrific too, not just the workout and the pro-day. His media availability was bad too... he's the guy that said "I don't watch film of myself, why would I?" or something of that sort. Pretty much all the mumbles before the combine about his questionable football 'character' seem to have turned right. It's a shame. He had some nice flashes in college. 

 

 

So let me ask you... Lets say you get those specific DL prospects + Andrew Dillard + all the safeties + all the WRs without Metcalf... who are you taking there, but none of the CBs? I would seriously be tempted to take Dillard... 

 

Dillard at 26 would be like Christmas in April.    He's the only OL I'd be interested in in the first round.

 

What a gift.   I'm expecting to be gone in the first 16 picks.   To me, he's the best OL in this class by far.   

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9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

That's why I asked why you disagree with me. I think the DL class is better than the WR class, for sure. But I think the best DL are going in the top 20, and I think only 2 receivers are likely to go that high. So when we're on the clock at #26, the DL that are available aren't that exciting to me. 

 

I like to take in big boards at this time. I like mocks, but their value is limited because people have competing priorities when doing mocks, and I think they're picks wind up being influenced by at lot of nonsense. But the big boards are just meant to be a ranking of prospects, not tied to teams. 

 

So it seems like consensus suggests the best DL available at #26 will be maybe Clelin Ferrell and Christian Wilkins (but maybe not), Dexter Lawrence, Jerry Tillery, Jeffrey Simmons, Jaylon Ferguson, Dre'Mont Jones, Jachai Polite, Zach Allen, Charles Omenihu... I think we can assume Simmons and Ferguson aren't on the Colts board, especially in the first. I think Ferrell and Wilkins are both gone, whether I like them or not.

 

Out of them all, only Tillery seems like a good pick, and I'm not necessarily over the moon about him at this point. Lawrence doesn't move me, and I think the rest are second rounders, or later. I might have left someone out, but I don't think so...

 

On the other hand, I like most of the receivers that are most likely available in the second and third round. And I think there will be a ton of them still there, because most likely only three receivers go in the first round (and I could be wrong about that, but that seems to be consensus). I think we could potentially get someone like Parris Campbell or Riley Ridley even at the end of the third. To me, that's value.

 

So I think the DL with first round value are going to be gone by #26, and I'm not super excited about any of the rest of them. 

 

OK.....

 

First,  today's argument is totally different than what you wrote yesterday.   Than what I responded to.     Today you're saying that at pick 26, the value of a WR, or another position might be roughly the same as the value of the 10th or 12th best DL which might be available at 26.   That's a completely different argument,  and I'm not sure I'd strongly disagree with you.

 

What I responded to yesterday was this.....

 

"It's as much of a WR draft as it is a DL draft, and I actually like the WR value on Day 2 better than the DL value on Day 1."

 

The above in bold is an entirely different discussion.   And I confess that what I read that my eyes popped out and my chin hit the floor.   And I don't need an emoji to make that point.   It was astonishing.   Because there's not an ounce of truth in what I put into bold.    None.  Nada, Zip, Zero.    As you well know,  this is being called an historical level of DL draft talent in R1.   While the WR class is mostly being called another disappointing class in a string of disappointing WR classes that we've had.   And while it's somewhat better than last year's class,  that's a pretty low bar to clear.

 

There's no universe where this as much of a WR draft as it is a DL draft.

 

Just out today, is Todd McShay's draft by tier's.    He lists 117 players with grades of 3rd round or above.   That last's to the middle of the 3rd round.    He lists 22 DL's with 3rd round grades or better.   He lists 13 WR's with 3rd round grades or better.    What link is there to support your view of the WR class being comparable to the DL class?    I can't imagine there is one,  I'd think youd've posted it by now.

 

A study done by Pro Football Outsiders says basically while it's another poor WR class,  they predict the top WR is Hollywood Brown....  yet they say his average yards per season is likely to be around 640 yards.    And he's the BEST WR in the class according to them.

 

Look....  maybe I'm reading too much into what you wrote?    Maybe you didn't write it the way you wanted?    Maybe you've got a different meaning to what you're trying to say.   I'm open to most any explanation?   But it's got to make sense.    Because what I reacted to,  NOT WHAT YOU WROTE TODAY,  but what I responded to,  doesn't make sense at all.

 

As to the when?    I'd guess by Day 3 of the draft things will be pretty apparent.   And the ultimate test will be roughly 3 years from now....   what can I tell you,  that's when there's more concrete evidence to evaluate.

 

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1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

OK.....

 

First,  today's argument is totally different than what you wrote yesterday.   Than what I responded to.     Today you're saying that at pick 26, the value of a WR, or another position might be roughly the same as the value of the 10th or 12th best DL which might be available at 26.   That's a completely different argument,  and I'm not sure I'd strongly disagree with you.

 

What I responded to yesterday was this.....

 

"It's as much of a WR draft as it is a DL draft, and I actually like the WR value on Day 2 better than the DL value on Day 1."

 

The above in bold is an entirely different discussion.   And I confess that what I read that my eyes popped out and my chin hit the floor.   And I don't need an emoji to make that point.   It was astonishing.   Because there's not an ounce of truth in what I put into bold.    None.  Nada, Zip, Zero.    As you well know,  this is being called an historical level of DL draft talent in R1.   While the WR class is mostly being called another disappointing class in a string of disappointing WR classes that we've had.   And while it's somewhat better than last year's class,  that's a pretty low bar to clear.

 

There's no universe where this as much of a WR draft as it is a DL draft.

 

Just out today, is Todd McShay's draft by tier's.    He lists 117 players with grades of 3rd round or above.   That last's to the middle of the 3rd round.    He lists 22 DL's with 3rd round grades or better.   He lists 13 WR's with 3rd round grades or better.    What link is there to support your view of the WR class being comparable to the DL class?    I can't imagine there is one,  I'd think youd've posted it by now.

 

A study done by Pro Football Outsiders says basically while it's another poor WR class,  they predict the top WR is Hollywood Brown....  yet they say his average yards per season is likely to be around 640 yards.    And he's the BEST WR in the class according to them.

 

Look....  maybe I'm reading too much into what you wrote?    Maybe you didn't write it the way you wanted?    Maybe you've got a different meaning to what you're trying to say.   I'm open to most any explanation?   But it's got to make sense.    Because what I reacted to,  NOT WHAT YOU WROTE TODAY,  but what I responded to,  doesn't make sense at all.

 

As to the when?    I'd guess by Day 3 of the draft things will be pretty apparent.   And the ultimate test will be roughly 3 years from now....   what can I tell you,  that's when there's more concrete evidence to evaluate.

 

Many draft talking heads think 2019 is the best WR class since 2015, maybe even 2014. Keep in mind that historically we almost always (if not always) have more DL (DE/DT) going in the first round (or first couple rounds) that any other position. In the last 25 (through 2015) years, 170 (DL) vs 99 (WRs) went in the 1st. In the last 10 years, 73 vs 40.

 

From a pure numbers perspective, DL should always be deeper than WR. It's not just about 4 DL positions vs 3 WR positions either. DLs are probably the position most positively impacted due to the play of the entire front 4, and also positively impacted by specialization. It's also why DL is is one of the highest % positions in the bust category. It's why we have a guy like Dexter Lawrence likely going in the first round even though he had significantly less snaps that the other 3 along the Clemson front 4.

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4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

OK.....

 

First,  today's argument is totally different than what you wrote yesterday.   Than what I responded to.     Today you're saying that at pick 26, the value of a WR, or another position might be roughly the same as the value of the 10th or 12th best DL which might be available at 26.   That's a completely different argument,  and I'm not sure I'd strongly disagree with you.

 

What I responded to yesterday was this.....

 

"It's as much of a WR draft as it is a DL draft, and I actually like the WR value on Day 2 better than the DL value on Day 1."

 

The above in bold is an entirely different discussion.   And I confess that what I read that my eyes popped out and my chin hit the floor.   And I don't need an emoji to make that point.   It was astonishing.   Because there's not an ounce of truth in what I put into bold.    None.  Nada, Zip, Zero.    As you well know,  this is being called an historical level of DL draft talent in R1.   While the WR class is mostly being called another disappointing class in a string of disappointing WR classes that we've had.   And while it's somewhat better than last year's class,  that's a pretty low bar to clear.

 

There's no universe where this as much of a WR draft as it is a DL draft.

 

Just out today, is Todd McShay's draft by tier's.    He lists 117 players with grades of 3rd round or above.   That last's to the middle of the 3rd round.    He lists 22 DL's with 3rd round grades or better.   He lists 13 WR's with 3rd round grades or better.    What link is there to support your view of the WR class being comparable to the DL class?    I can't imagine there is one,  I'd think youd've posted it by now.

 

A study done by Pro Football Outsiders says basically while it's another poor WR class,  they predict the top WR is Hollywood Brown....  yet they say his average yards per season is likely to be around 640 yards.    And he's the BEST WR in the class according to them.

 

Look....  maybe I'm reading too much into what you wrote?    Maybe you didn't write it the way you wanted?    Maybe you've got a different meaning to what you're trying to say.   I'm open to most any explanation?   But it's got to make sense.    Because what I reacted to,  NOT WHAT YOU WROTE TODAY,  but what I responded to,  doesn't make sense at all.

 

As to the when?    I'd guess by Day 3 of the draft things will be pretty apparent.   And the ultimate test will be roughly 3 years from now....   what can I tell you,  that's when there's more concrete evidence to evaluate.

 

 

It's not really different. I said I like the value at WR in Day 2 better than the value at DL on Day 1, and that's what I spoke to in my post earlier today. Specifically the value when the Colts are on the board at #26. I think you can see from my response earlier that my emphasis was more about value based on the Colts' scheduled picks.

 

But you're right, I definitely overstated that. This draft is much better at DL than WR, especially at the top. 

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Interesting discussion and makes me want that trade up to occur even more. 

 

Take a chance and get a potential stud player, not just another potentially good or promising one. 

 

Swap 1s and give up one of our 2s and get into the top 15 or better or whatever the going rate would be. 

 

 

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12 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

He lists 22 DL's with 3rd round grades or better.   He lists 13 WR's with 3rd round grades or better.

 

I meant to address this part also.

 

Let's say by the time the Colts pick, Williams, Bosa, Allen, Burns, Oliver, Sweat, Wilkins, Ferrell, Gary are all off the board. That's nine DL/edge players in the top 25, which seems reasonable to me. And let's say Metcalf and Hollywood Brown are taken at WR (the only two receivers in McShay's top 32).

 

Now you're left with 13 DL/edge players with third round grades or better, and 11 WRs with third round grades or better, based on McShay's rankings.

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8 hours ago, cbear said:

Swap 1s and give up one of our 2s and get into the top 15 or better or whatever the going rate would be. 

 

 

Based strictly on the value chart, using #34 would get us up to #11, and using #59 would get us up to #16.

 

In real life, I think those projections are a little ambitious. I think it would take more to get up to the top 15.

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On 4/2/2019 at 8:15 PM, Irish YJ said:

Many draft talking heads think 2019 is the best WR class since 2015, maybe even 2014. Keep in mind that historically we almost always (if not always) have more DL (DE/DT) going in the first round (or first couple rounds) that any other position. In the last 25 (through 2015) years, 170 (DL) vs 99 (WRs) went in the 1st. In the last 10 years, 73 vs 40.

 

From a pure numbers perspective, DL should always be deeper than WR. It's not just about 4 DL positions vs 3 WR positions either. DLs are probably the position most positively impacted due to the play of the entire front 4, and also positively impacted by specialization. It's also why DL is is one of the highest % positions in the bust category. It's why we have a guy like Dexter Lawrence likely going in the first round even though he had significantly less snaps that the other 3 along the Clemson front 4.

 

Who are these many talking heads?     I can't find them.

 

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15 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I meant to address this part also.

 

Let's say by the time the Colts pick, Williams, Bosa, Allen, Burns, Oliver, Sweat, Wilkins, Ferrell, Gary are all off the board. That's nine DL/edge players in the top 25, which seems reasonable to me. And let's say Metcalf and Hollywood Brown are taken at WR (the only two receivers in McShay's top 32).

 

Now you're left with 13 DL/edge players with third round grades or better, and 11 WRs with third round grades or better, based on McShay's rankings.

 

Yes....   understood....

 

But in a roundabout way,  you're saying,  if I have $100,000 and you have $1,100,000 and if we simply don't pay much attention to the whole million dollar thing we have roughly the same amount of money.      

 

(Sorry,  I was trying to come up with an analogy you might be comfortable with!)   

 

As to pick 26....   the more I see how this plays out,  without me knowing how Ballard rates the top DL,  I'm feeling a little out on a ledge.    Would Ballard take the 10th or maybe even 11th best DL, than perhaps the 2nd or 3rd WR,  or the 2nd or 3rd best safety?     You and I might respond it's entirely up to the grade he has on the DL.    He might.    But without knowing how he has the WR's or Safety's ranked,  I have no real way of knowing.    I'm going entirely on my close read of Ballard's comments and moves he's made in the 26 months he's been with the Colts. 

 

I might be dining on Crow Thursday night, the 25th!   I'm sure I have more than a few friends who like to see me doing just that!      :peek:

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19 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Who are these many talking heads?     I can't find them.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2019-nfl-draft-ranking-all-34-wide-receivers-to-know-from-a-j-brown-to-ashton-dulin/

Quote

 

The 2019 draft class of wide receivers is the best since the famed 2014 collection that featured Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, and Jarvis Landry. 

While there isn't a receiver prospect clearly standing above the rest, the top-end depth is staggering, and there's an awesome amount of mid-round talent capable of becoming quality contributors at the next level. 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2817756-ranking-every-position-in-the-2019-nfl-draft#slide10

Rolling ranked the WR class 3rd behind DE and DT

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/top-3-deepest-positions-for-the-2019-nfl-draft

Draft Network ranked 3rd deepest as well.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

 

I'll give you props for the first two....   the last one is from August of 2018.    Before the senior year of these players even started.    So that one is a non-starter.

 

Look....   I'm going to sound like a snob and elitest.    But I'm 62.   Followed sports for more than 55 years.     Followed drafts of all types in all major sports for roughly 50 years.   

 

I was a member of the media for 30 years.   Covered drafts professionally here in Los Angeles for 20 years.    I've learned over time who had a good understanding of the material and who....   doesn't.

 

The only people I feel good about are people who spend the entire year on the draft, 24/7/365.   That's the people at NFL.com and ESPN.com as well as newer analytical outlets like PFF and PFO.

 

Most of these are people who could scout for NFL teams for a living, and some, like NFL's Daniel Jeremiah was indeed a scout for 9 seasons and 3 different teams.   When posters here ask me why he doesn't still,  I explain,  he's likely making 5-10 times more and doing much of the work from the comfort of his home.    He picks and choses when to go cover a game.    He's got a better life now.

 

The rest cover the draft and do the best they can.   But their level of understanding is far less than what GM's like Casserly and Polian or former scouts like Jeremiah and Brooks have.    It's night and day.

 

So, I use website like CBS Sports and Bleacher Report just to see what their viewpoint is,  but I don't put much stock into what they say.     By the way,  Spoiler Alert,  I'm going to contradict myself in about a week or so, when I address the strength of WR classes that we've been disagreeing about for a few weeks now.

 

I just don't give the secondary or third level websites nearly as much credit as others here do.   

 

I appreciate that you're likely to disagree with me.    And that's OK.

 

Last thought:    Let me ask you this...   a few seasons back,  3 WR's,  Corey Davis,  Mike Williams and John Ross were pick 5, 7 and 9.     This year,  Metcalf has been mocked in the mid-teens.   So has Hollywood in a few mocks,  but he's also being mocked in the 20's.   But most of the other WR's are being mocked in the mid-late 20's and 30's and 40's.     If this class is supposed to the best since the famed class of 2014,  then why are most of this class being projected so late in the first round or in the 2nd round.    That doesn't make sense if it's true.    The claim is not being supported by what's being projected by pretty much everyone.   Just some food for thought....

 

 

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10 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

But in a roundabout way,  you're saying,  if I have $100,000 and you have $1,100,000 and if we simply don't pay much attention to the whole million dollar thing we have roughly the same amount of money.      

 

It's more like once you spend your million and I've spent nothing, we both have $100,000.

 

Once the top DL talent is gone -- and I expect about a third of the picks before #26 to be DL/edge players -- it's kind of even, numbers wise. And I think several receivers still there will be potential #1 receivers, while the DL guys remaining have more question marks. Just speaking to value.

 

Quote

 

As to pick 26....   the more I see how this plays out,  without me knowing how Ballard rates the top DL,  I'm feeling a little out on a ledge.    Would Ballard take the 10th or maybe even 11th best DL, than perhaps the 2nd or 3rd WR,  or the 2nd or 3rd best safety?     You and I might respond it's entirely up to the grade he has on the DL.    He might.    But without knowing how he has the WR's or Safety's ranked,  I have no real way of knowing.    I'm going entirely on my close read of Ballard's comments and moves he's made in the 26 months he's been with the Colts. 

 

I might be dining on Crow Thursday night, the 25th!   I'm sure I have more than a few friends who like to see me doing just that!      

 

 

You will not be alone. I don't have any idea what Ballard will do. Last year it was pretty easy to figure out what the plan was, especially after the trade back. I have no read on what will happen this year.

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20 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I'll give you props for the first two....   the last one is from August of 2018.    Before the senior year of these players even started.    So that one is a non-starter.

 

Look....   I'm going to sound like a snob and elitest.    But I'm 62.   Followed sports for more than 55 years.     Followed drafts of all types in all major sports for roughly 50 years.   

 

I was a member of the media for 30 years.   Covered drafts professionally here in Los Angeles for 20 years.    I've learned over time who had a good understanding of the material and who....   doesn't.

 

The only people I feel good about are people who spend the entire year on the draft, 24/7/365.   That's the people at NFL.com and ESPN.com as well as newer analytical outlets like PFF and PFO.

 

Most of these are people who could scout for NFL teams for a living, and some, like NFL's Daniel Jeremiah was indeed a scout for 9 seasons and 3 different teams.   When posters here ask me why he doesn't still,  I explain,  he's likely making 5-10 times more and doing much of the work from the comfort of his home.    He picks and choses when to go cover a game.    He's got a better life now.

 

The rest cover the draft and do the best they can.   But their level of understanding is far less than what GM's like Casserly and Polian or former scouts like Jeremiah and Brooks have.    It's night and day.

 

So, I use website like CBS Sports and Bleacher Report just to see what their viewpoint is,  but I don't put much stock into what they say.     By the way,  Spoiler Alert,  I'm going to contradict myself in about a week or so, when I address the strength of WR classes that we've been disagreeing about for a few weeks now.

 

I just don't give the secondary or third level websites nearly as much credit as others here do.   

 

I appreciate that you're likely to disagree with me.    And that's OK.

 

Last thought:    Let me ask you this...   a few seasons back,  3 WR's,  Corey Davis,  Mike Williams and John Ross were pick 5, 7 and 9.     This year,  Metcalf has been mocked in the mid-teens.   So has Hollywood in a few mocks,  but he's also being mocked in the 20's.   But most of the other WR's are being mocked in the mid-late 20's and 30's and 40's.     If this class is supposed to the best since the famed class of 2014,  then why are most of this class being projected so late in the first round or in the 2nd round.    That doesn't make sense if it's true.    The claim is not being supported by what's being projected by pretty much everyone.   Just some food for thought....

 

 

 

The links i posted took an entire 60 seconds to find. The reason why I included the 2018 is to show that this was an anticipated WR class and was expected to be quality going into last year. There's also plenty of Fantasy Football articles that like the 2019 class, one saying that 4 of the top 18 WRs (over the last 5 years) are in this class. If you prefer NFL.com, there's plenty of talk there about the quality of and depth of WR (I watch it daily). 

 

In terms of numbers going in the first. Several factors. 1) I'm sure you would agree that in general, WR has been devalued a bit, and DE/DT has been overvalued a bit. 2) if you look at the primary needs of teams (link below) this year, ~31 DE/DT vs ~10 WR. 3) There are more DE/DT positions (raw and specialized) than WR on the field at any time.

 

And nobody is saying this isn't a better DE/DT class than WR. I'm just saying this is a pretty decent WR class too. I think our biggest need is a legit X, but I'm in favor of taking and iDL with 26, even if there might be a BPA WR available. That's simply because I think there will be a big drop off after the 1st in DE/DTs due to everyone reaching, and there will be plenty of good WRs 34-59. 

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/team-needs

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On 4/3/2019 at 6:50 AM, Superman said:

 

Now you're left with 13 DL/edge players with third round grades or better, and 11 WRs with third round grades or better, based on McShay's rankings.

Which might leave us selecting offensive line. 

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5 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

 

The links i posted took an entire 60 seconds to find. The reason why I included the 2018 is to show that this was an anticipated WR class and was expected to be quality going into last year. There's also plenty of Fantasy Football articles that like the 2019 class, one saying that 4 of the top 18 WRs (over the last 5 years) are in this class. If you prefer NFL.com, there's plenty of talk there about the quality of and depth of WR (I watch it daily). 

 

In terms of numbers going in the first. Several factors. 1) I'm sure you would agree that in general, WR has been devalued a bit, and DE/DT has been overvalued a bit. 2) if you look at the primary needs of teams (link below) this year, ~31 DE/DT vs ~10 WR. 3) There are more DE/DT positions (raw and specialized) than WR on the field at any time.

 

And nobody is saying this isn't a better DE/DT class than WR. I'm just saying this is a pretty decent WR class too. I think our biggest need is a legit X, but I'm in favor of taking and iDL with 26, even if there might be a BPA WR available. That's simply because I think there will be a big drop off after the 1st in DE/DTs due to everyone reaching, and there will be plenty of good WRs 34-59. 

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/team-needs

 

Irish.....

 

Not that you care,  or go to sleep at night wondering....   but you're one of my favorite new posters....   you bring new ideas, views and energy here that I'm really enjoying.    I know we've knocked heads a few times so perhaps my respect for you isn't always apparent.

 

That said,  we disagree on how to evaluate the evaluators....    I think much of what you link is little more than click bait.    Websites that live or die by trying to attract more readers to click on their link and read what they've written.    And it's hard to attract many readers if what you're saying is....   "another disappointing class of wide receivers"...    and the same applies to all the sexy positions that fans watch because we all watch the ball...    so QB's and RB's are always included no matter what. 

 

So, I try to pay attention to people who have a vested interest in trying to get it right and who take it personally if they're wrong.    Kiper and McShay at ESPN.   The analytics people as well.   Jeremiah, Brooks, Zierlein and Casserly at NFL.com.   I keep an eye on PFF and PFO because from time to time their analytics make sense to me.    Not always,  but sometimes. 

 

And I do try to keep an eye on other sites,  but that's just to be aware of what the industry is putting out.   The NFL draft has become HUGE!    TV ratings are thru the roof.   Mock drafts are everywhere.   It's all click bait because if you've got a favorite team,  you want to know who they might take in the draft.   It's all wildly popular stuff.    But that doesn't make it good.   Good news, exciting news about the sexy positions sells.   But that doesn't make them right.   And those in the know are basically saying this class is somewhat better than last year's....   but that isn't saying much.   Last year's class was very poor.

 

And,  forgive me,  but you've got an approach on this issue,  that is unmatched here on the website.    In this post that I'm responding to,  you've talked about Fantasy websites.   You take them seriously.   I'm here almost 7 years,  and in all that time,  to the best of my knowledge,  you're the first poster to try and talk about how good a player or a position group is based on a Fantasy website.    In another recent post you talked about several players going up in the draft rankings because you say their going higher in the mock draft simulations.    Again,  I've not seen this done by anyone else.    I'm not going to try to talk you out of that,  but my views here are pretty well known.    Those sites are simply not credible.   They're fun and addictive but they're not close to what goes on in the real world.   What they're doing has no relationship to the reality of the NFL.    And I'm not aware of any other poster who has done this. 

 

Again,  I'm an Irish fan.   I look forward to more conversations, debates and discussions.   But this issue,  about who you use,  who you value to rate talent,  is as far away from my view as can be.  We're on the opposite side of the moon from one another.   That's a big divide to close.  Wish it wasn't so,  but it appears to be.    


By the time you read this,  we'll be inside of 3 weeks to the draft.   Lots of interesting talks ahead.   Looking forward to them!

 

NCF

 

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14 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Irish.....

 

Not that you care,  or go to sleep at night wondering....   but you're one of my favorite new posters....   you bring new ideas, views and energy here that I'm really enjoying.    I know we've knocked heads a few times so perhaps my respect for you isn't always apparent.

 

That said,  we disagree on how to evaluate the evaluators....    I think much of what you link is little more than click bait.    Websites that live or die by trying to attract more readers to click on their link and read what they've written.    And it's hard to attract many readers if what you're saying is....   "another disappointing class of wide receivers"...    and the same applies to all the sexy positions that fans watch because we all watch the ball...    so QB's and RB's are always included no matter what. 

 

So, I try to pay attention to people who have a vested interest in trying to get it right and who take it personally if they're wrong.    Kiper and McShay at ESPN.   The analytics people as well.   Jeremiah, Brooks, Zierlein and Casserly at NFL.com.   I keep an eye on PFF and PFO because from time to time their analytics make sense to me.    Not always,  but sometimes. 

 

And I do try to keep an eye on other sites,  but that's just to be aware of what the industry is putting out.   The NFL draft has become HUGE!    TV ratings are thru the roof.   Mock drafts are everywhere.   It's all click bait because if you've got a favorite team,  you want to know who they might take in the draft.   It's all wildly popular stuff.    But that doesn't make it good.   Good news, exciting news about the sexy positions sells.   But that doesn't make them right.   And those in the know are basically saying this class is somewhat better than last year's....   but that isn't saying much.   Last year's class was very poor.

 

And,  forgive me,  but you've got an approach on this issue,  that is unmatched here on the website.    In this post that I'm responding to,  you've talked about Fantasy websites.   You take them seriously.   I'm here almost 7 years,  and in all that time,  to the best of my knowledge,  you're the first poster to try and talk about how good a player or a position group is based on a Fantasy website.    In another recent post you talked about several players going up in the draft rankings because you say their going higher in the mock draft simulations.    Again,  I've not seen this done by anyone else.    I'm not going to try to talk you out of that,  but my views here are pretty well known.    Those sites are simply not credible.   They're fun and addictive but they're not close to what goes on in the real world.   What they're doing has no relationship to the reality of the NFL.    And I'm not aware of any other poster who has done this. 

 

Again,  I'm an Irish fan.   I look forward to more conversations, debates and discussions.   But this issue,  about who you use,  who you value to rate talent,  is as far away from my view as can be.  We're on the opposite side of the moon from one another.   That's a big divide to close.  Wish it wasn't so,  but it appears to be.    


By the time you read this,  we'll be inside of 3 weeks to the draft.   Lots of interesting talks ahead.   Looking forward to them!

 

NCF

 

Mocks are just mocks. They're an indicator. I don't play fantasy football, but I do keep an eye on their mocks. Why? Because several of them have been more accurate than the two guys you listed, Kiper in McShay. ESPN is more entertainment and politics these days than substance. Kiper promised to retire several years ago if his prediction about Jimmy Clausen was wrong. It was very wrong yet he's still here lol. He's had a lot of whiffs. 

 

In short, I think you put too much stock in guys like Kiper and McShay. Neither one made the top 10 in accuracy last year. Kiper didn't make the top 20. Who filled out the top 10? A lot of fantasy analysts and what you refer to as secondary sites. Out of the old guard, only Mayock of NFL.com made the top 10 at 7th. McShay a respectable 12th, and Kiper 23rd. I like Zierlein but he waffles a lot and is always bullish on lines (which is fine).

 

The ratings/rankings I'm referring too take into account 4 categories and is pretty thorough. I've added the link to the mock accuracy ratings below. Kiper needs to spend less time on his hair and more time revisiting his mock technique :-). 

 

Not trying to offend you, but I'm a logic based guy. I too like the old guard and the old way of doing things, but I can't ignore that the new guys are dong a better job these days when it comes to mocks.

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/mock-drafts.php

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On 4/4/2019 at 9:37 AM, Superman said:

 

It's more like once you spend your million and I've spent nothing, we both have $100,000.

 

Once the top DL talent is gone -- and I expect about a third of the picks before #26 to be DL/edge players -- it's kind of even, numbers wise. And I think several receivers still there will be potential #1 receivers, while the DL guys remaining have more question marks. Just speaking to value.

 

 

You will not be alone. I don't have any idea what Ballard will do. Last year it was pretty easy to figure out what the plan was, especially after the trade back. I have no read on what will happen this year.

I am sensing a trade up.

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On ‎4‎/‎4‎/‎2019 at 11:37 AM, Superman said:

 

It's more like once you spend your million and I've spent nothing, we both have $100,000.

 

Once the top DL talent is gone -- and I expect about a third of the picks before #26 to be DL/edge players -- it's kind of even, numbers wise. And I think several receivers still there will be potential #1 receivers, while the DL guys remaining have more question marks. Just speaking to value.

 

 

You will not be alone. I don't have any idea what Ballard will do. Last year it was pretty easy to figure out what the plan was, especially after the trade back. I have no read on what will happen this year.

That is the thing with Ballard. He seems to put value on players different than the average GM. We all know he pays no attention to the so called draft gurus and fans.

Going through all the players who are team captains and team leaders might be a good start in the first few rounds. Maybe a gamble on a questionable player in the later rounds.

It's hard to anticipate what direction he will go.

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On 4/2/2019 at 12:13 PM, Superman said:

 

I'm gonna rewatch Taylor Rapp. I think I'm missing something there because everyone seems to love him.

I love Thornhill.

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