Colts in "strong pursuit" of Tyrell Williams

[MikeCurtis]

4 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

And we sure as heck need another playmaker on offense. 

yep

 

I am imagining an offense of WRs

 

Hilton

Williams

Parris Cambell

Cain

Inman

 

Wow

 

Defensive coordinators would be going OH Crap

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

I trust Ballard and Co's intuition on this, but really hope they don't sign him to anything 10+ Million. I'd rather have a guy like Golden Tate tho if they're gonna venture into that price range. He's been way more consistent, for way longer, and 1000 yard seasons are basically the norm for him. If they went that route, they could draft a WR or two, and let him/them develop under TY and Golden. 

[EastStreet]

Just now, Chloe6124 said:

Problem is Williams will come in and make a impact right away. A draft WR your looking at maybe two years.  Tate I believe is older. 

Tate is older, but is still very productive. I don't want him for more than two years

 

[MikeCurtis]

2 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

Tate is older, but is still very productive. I don't want him for more than two years

 

to me....... thats why you go with Williams

[richard pallo]

1 minute ago, MikeCurtis said:

to me....... thats why you go with Williams

Exactly and let's keep our fingers crossed that AB is traded to the Raiders.  Potentially reducing their interest in Williams.  

[EastStreet]

Just now, MikeCurtis said:

to me....... thats why you go with Williams

i don't want a big dollar long term contract, and that's likely what Williams would want.

give me someone for two years. 

cain is similar to Williams (speed/body), so i'm expecting him (and Inman) to develop.

and we need a legit #1 or #2 in this draft given TY will be 30. takes 2-3 years to develop at WR, so that's about the right timing if TY were to decline.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, creid said:

 

Williams is a very different from Humphries and Tate. If Ballard wants to add a slot Humphries all the way. But Williams is big and fast to play on the outside opposite of TY. I think Williams is the type of guy we need. 

 

Can you tell me what Williams does better than Humphries and Tate, besides being big and fast? 

 

Because I can give you a virtually endless list of NFL receivers who are big and fast, but never become meaningful players. 

 

And if it's starting to sound like I don't like Williams, I should clarify that I actually do, and would be fine if we added him. But I think the analysis should be a little more critical than just 'he's big and fast and can play on the outside,' because that alone doesn't make him better than anyone. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

It amazes me how some people in here do not want to spend any money when we have more than anyone under the Cap. You have to spend money to get top talent, no way around it. I guess if some of you want McDonald's all of your life instead of St Elmo you will always stay rich but never enjoy life to the fullest. Like the person that drives the beat up ol Chevy truck but has 10,000,000 in the bank to by a sports car and doesn't do it but can afford too. If we get a WR like Tyrell Williams that would be a great addition to the team and guess what, we can afford it . 

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

It amazes me how some people in here do not want to spend any money when we have more than anyone under the Cap. You have to spend money to get top talent, no way around it. I guess if some of you want McDonald's all of your life instead of St Elmo you will always stay rich but never enjoy life to the fullest. Like the person that drives the beat up ol Chevy truck but has 10,000,000 in the bank to by a sports car and doesn't do it but can afford too. If we get a WR like Tyrell Williams that would be a great addition to the team and guess what, we can afford it . 

i want to spend the money, but i want to build the team, especially the high dollar skill positions with the draft. there's a reason (several reasons) the Pats are so successful. they rarely spend big on FAs. 

 

Cain and Inman (and even Pascal) will compete to be #2 and #3 guys. We'll need to draft a legit #1 guy this year or next (it takes a couple years to develop) to be ready for when TY starts to slow. I'd rather use the cap to rent some guys for a couple years. And for the most part, it's best to use dollars on positions like S and LB in FA, as they are typically the best FA value.

 

I just don't want a high dollar and longer term contract. I'd rather spread the cap around. And honestly if we're going after a high dollar and long term contract, I'd rather it be on an Edge or DT.

 

But, like I said earlier, if Luck wants him, I'm 100% behind it. I don't think Ballard is going to overpay regardless.

[2006Coltsbestever]

4 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

i want to spend the money, but i want to build the team, especially the high dollar skill positions with the draft. there's a reason (several reasons) the Pats are so successful. they rarely spend big on FAs. 

 

Cain and Inman (and even Pascal) will compete to be #2 and #3 guys. We'll need to draft a legit #1 guy this year or next (it takes a couple years to develop) to be ready for when TY starts to slow. I'd rather use the cap to rent some guys for a couple years. And for the most part, it's best to use dollars on positions like S and LB in FA, as they are typically the best FA value.

 

I just don't want a high dollar and longer term contract. I'd rather spread the cap around. And honestly if we're going after a high dollar and long term contract, I'd rather it be on an Edge or DT.

 

But, like I said earlier, if Luck wants him, I'm 100% behind it. I don't think Ballard is going to overpay regardless.

I get you have to be careful regardless of how much money you have and spend smartly but WR is definitely a need we have. I like Williams as well, so maybe that is why I think the gamble would be worth it with him. He is young too (I believe just 27), if he was older like near 30 I would say no way.

[NewColtsFan]

26 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Can you tell me what Williams does better than Humphries and Tate, besides being big and fast? 

 

Because I can give you a virtually endless list of NFL receivers who are big and fast, but never become meaningful players. 

 

And if it's starting to sound like I don't like Williams, I should clarify that I actually do, and would be fine if we added him. But I think the analysis should be a little more critical than just 'he's big and fast and can play on the outside,' because that alone doesn't make him better than anyone. 

 

Are you OK?      Because you can't be serious about what I put into bold.

 

What does Williams do that Humphries and Tate don't do?     Really?     Seriously?

 

Over the past 3 years,  Williams average nearly 16 yards a catch.    Only 6 WR's in the NFL have done that well (with at least 43 receptions)  and none of them are Humphries and Tate.    Those two now average about 10-12 yards per catch.

 

Williams is not like the other two.    I'll take anyone Ballard likes.   But if we sign Humphries or Tate (which I'd be happy to do)   we're not getting the same type of receiver as Williams is.

 

Williams takes the top off the defense.     The other two,  not at all.

 

Or am I not understanding your meaning?     Cuz if you're serious then I'm seriously confused.

 

[Clem-Dog]

6 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

You have to spend money to get top talent

I totally agree.  However, I don't see a lot of top talent this offseason, especially receivers.  No need to overpay too drastically for good talent as if they were great.  You can't just give a receiver that is questionably top-40 at his position a contract worth top 10 money.  Four seasons is a large enough sample-size to make this a no-brainer.

 

I would take a gamble though and flirt with top-20ish money ($10m) on Humphries, TWill or Tate, in that order.  None of these guys are top 20, if they were they would be a #1.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I get you have to be careful regardless of how much money you have and spend smartly but WR is definitely a need we have. I like Williams as well, so maybe that is why I think the gamble would be worth it with him. He is young too (I believe just 27), if he was older like near 30 I would say no way.

agree. if we're going to gamble, WR is one of the positions I do it with. i think i'd just prefer to try and pick up Tate on a 2 year deal, instead of Williams on a higher dollar and longer contract.

[shasta519]

The Colts have more money to burn than anybody else. So be prepared to hear a lot of these types of reports. Most (not all...but most) can likely be chalked up to these players having a semi-competent agent who can drum up interest. And I am also sure Ballard checks in on just about every player out there that could possibly be a fit.

 

As for Williams...it might be an unpopular opinion...but I actually hope the Colts aren't going to make a strong push for him. In this FA class, he is going to get overpaid. But even at $10M (the low side of projections)...I don't like it. Williams is a deep threat in an offense full of weapons. There are size/speed guys all over this upcoming draft...and the Colts actually have one coming that they like coming off injury as well.

 

His "breakout" season was two years ago...and he made such a strong case to be a WR2 that LAC drafted a WR in the top 10 the next year to pair with Allen. This was after having having drafted a RB in the 1st round the year before and drafting a TE in the early 2nd round in the the previous two drafts.. So instead of believing that Williams was a weapon and should be a big part of the offense going forward, they willingly pushed him down the depth chart.

 

Now he's a couple years older AND much more expensive. And the Colts would likely be signing him to a contract that is not commensurate with the type of player he is.

 

I remember Kamar Aiken also had a "big" season too that was largely fueled by injuries to other players. Williams is definitely a better WR than Aiken...but still.

 

The draft is where the talent is. I am not against a FA WR...but Williams seems like the classic overpay waiting to happen.

[Colts_Fan12]

40 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

It amazes me how some people in here do not want to spend any money when we have more than anyone under the Cap. You have to spend money to get top talent, no way around it. I guess if some of you want McDonald's all of your life instead of St Elmo you will always stay rich but never enjoy life to the fullest. Like the person that drives the beat up ol Chevy truck but has 10,000,000 in the bank to by a sports car and doesn't do it but can afford too. If we get a WR like Tyrell Williams that would be a great addition to the team and guess what, we can afford it . 

Rather spend it on other players 

[EastStreet]

my foolosophy has always been to draft the guys on the right, and play the FA market with the guys on the left. sure there are exceptions, the more you can adhere, the better off cap wise and personnel we'll be. 

#bang4buck

 

[shasta519]

3 minutes ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

Rather spend it on other players 

 

Right...even with the amount of money they have...there is still an opportunity cost involved in giving out big contracts.

 

 

 

 

[BOTT]

22 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Are you OK?      Because you can't be serious about what I put into bold.

 

What does Williams do that Humphries and Tate don't do?     Really?     Seriously?

 

Over the past 3 years,  Williams average nearly 16 yards a catch.    Only 6 WR's in the NFL have done that well (with at least 43 receptions)  and none of them are Humphries and Tate.    Those two now average about 10-12 yards per catch.

 

Williams is not like the other two.    I'll take anyone Ballard likes.   But if we sign Humphries or Tate (which I'd be happy to do)   we're not getting the same type of receiver as Williams is.

 

Williams takes the top off the defense.     The other two,  not at all.

 

Or am I not understanding your meaning?     Cuz if you're serious then I'm seriously confused.

 

Im sure he will respond, but I think people want Williams due to his body type more than his actual play.

[2006Coltsbestever]

28 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

agree. if we're going to gamble, WR is one of the positions I do it with. i think i'd just prefer to try and pick up Tate on a 2 year deal, instead of Williams on a higher dollar and longer contract.

I gave you a LIKE because of your 1st sentence but I still think Williams teamed up with Luck would be a solid combo. He just turned 27 actually so he is even in his prime.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

14 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

The Colts have more money to burn than anybody else. So be prepared to hear a lot of these types of reports. Most (not all...but most) can likely be chalked up to these players have a semi-competent agent. And I am sure Ballard checks in on just about every player out there that could possibly be a fit.

 

As for Williams...it might be an unpopular opinion...but I actually hope the Colts aren't going to make a strong push for him. In this FA class, he is going to get overpaid. But even at $10M (the low side of projections)...I don't like it. Williams is a deep threat in an offense full of weapons. There are size/speed guys all over this upcoming draft...and the Colts actually have one coming that they like coming off injury as well.

 

His "breakout" season was two years ago...and he made such a strong case to be a WR2 that LAC drafted a WR in the top 10 the next year to pair with Allen. This was after having having drafted a RB in the 1st round the year before and drafting a TE in the early 2nd round in the the previous two drafts.. So instead of believing that Williams was a weapon and should be a big part of the offense going forward, they willingly pushed him down the depth chart.

 

Now he's a couple years older AND much more expensive. And the Colts would likely be signing him to a contract that is not commensurate with the type of player he is.

 

I remember Kamar Aiken also had a "big" season too that was largely fueled by injuries to other players. Williams is definitely a better WR than Aiken...but still.

 

The draft is where the talent is. I am not against a FA WR...but Williams seems like the classic overpay waiting to happen.

Ballard has admitted they have no idea about Cain. He is coming off a injury without insurance playing one game. 

 

Is everyone forgetting Luck and TY are pushing thirty. This team is ready to win now with a couple pieces. We can still draft and develop but I want to win now not in 3 years. I see a great receiver on Williams. Hexiust got caught up in a numbers game in LA.

[LJpalmbeacher2]

55 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

It amazes me how some people in here do not want to spend any money when we have more than anyone under the Cap. You have to spend money to get top talent, no way around it. I guess if some of you want McDonald's all of your life instead of St Elmo you will always stay rich but never enjoy life to the fullest. Like the person that drives the beat up ol Chevy truck but has 10,000,000 in the bank to by a sports car and doesn't do it but can afford too. If we get a WR like Tyrell Williams that would be a great addition to the team and guess what, we can afford it . 

 

Didn't you know?

It's not about winning the most games and SB, it's about having & keeping the most cap space! 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Also him knowing the coaches is a big plus. Do you guys really want to go into next season with a guy who will basically be a rookie and Rogers and pascal again. Luck needs another playmaker.

[2006Coltsbestever]

6 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

Didn't you know?

It's not about winning the most games and SB, it's about having & keeping the most cap space! 

Ballard has made it clear that he is building this team through the draft (which I love) but after last season we are in win now mode IMO. When you make the Divisional Round but do not have the firepower to beat a couple of teams (Pats/Chiefs) then you have to add proven players. Otherwise we will be going home again after the Divisional Round. We have the money to add players as well so it is all on Ballard to do so. Just be smart about it of course. I like Williams and some don't so regarding Williams some wouldn't take that gamble, I get it.

[LJpalmbeacher2]

He sounds like a good fit to me.

 

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/10/indianapolis-colts-free-agency-tyrell-williams/amp/#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

10 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

He sounds like a good fit to me.

 

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/10/indianapolis-colts-free-agency-tyrell-williams/amp/#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s

The fact he can stretch the field is huge. We could not do that this year. If we get him we are going to have a lot of weopons to choose from. Especially with Doyle coming back.  

 

If luck and ty were 24 we and team wasn’t ready to win now you could work on developing one. But they aren’t and team is ready to win.

 

 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

12 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

The fact he can stretch the field is huge. We could not do that this year. If we get him we are going to have a lot of weopons to choose from. Especially with Doyle coming back.  

 

If luck and ty were 24 we and team wasn’t ready to win now you could work on developing one. But they aren’t and team is ready to win.

 

 

 

True. And also according to the article he's good fit for our short quick throws that Reich uses. And at 6'4" could be a red zone target.

[TomDiggs]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Are you OK?      Because you can't be serious about what I put into bold.

 

What does Williams do that Humphries and Tate don't do?     Really?     Seriously?

 

 

This made me super curious since I respect the opinions and commentary that both you and Superman bring to the forum.

 

And since I am a total stats/metrics nerd, I wanted to dig (Fair warning, long post and attached analysis. Stop reading or turn back now if you are bored by long posts, analysis and nerdy stat people).

 

Soooo here is what I dug up and compiled. This is based on stats from Next Gen Stats and it is averaged over three year (2016-2018) to give a broad sample size (spreadsheet attached for those that love stats like me- if my attachment works. Never tried that before).

 

I compared 5 top FAs (Williams, Tate, Humphries, Cobb, Crowder) to Hilton (since he is someone beloved by us and known to us).

 

Compared the Yards after catch per reception, YAC+ (basically how well a player performs after the catch versus what would be expected of a player on each reception they make), Separation (how open are they getting?), Targeted Air yards (how far downfield are they?) and catch percentage.

 

One interesting find:

 

Hilton: 5.1, 0.1, 2.5, 12.6, 58.1

Williams: 6.7, -0.6, 2.8, 12.7, 61.1

 

So the interesting part about this is Williams is very much used by SD as we use Hilton. He averaged a much better YAC, but that doesn't tell the whole story. His YAC+ is not good. At all. So while he gets yards after the catch based on how he was used, he left yards on the field and didn't perform as any player would be expected on his catches.

 

Tate: 6.5, 1.2, 2.8, 6.7, 70.0

Humphries: 6.0, 0.4, 3.5, 6.1, 70.7

Cobb: 6.3, 0.5, 3.3, 7.2, 68.5

Crowder: 6.3, 0.3, 3.2, 8.4, 63.7

 

What does this all mean in summary?

 

The intuitive stuff of Tate, Cobb, Humphries and Crowder being slots and playing closer to the line shows up. They all averaged targets 6-8 or so yards down the field compared to Hilton and Williams being over 12 yards down the field.

 

Williams basically outperforms Hilton in all facets other than YAC+. Where everyone beats him readily. He is a below average player in maximizing his YAC. So he gets YAC, but not as much as he should.

 

The guy who excels and gets the most YAC compared to what he should per catch?.....Golden Tate. And he is almost 3 times as good as the next best guy on that list.

 

All of these guys get better separation than Hilton and they range from 2.8 to 3.5 yards.

 

For me, the fun of this was seeing who did what and what are the Colts looking for? Are we looking for another WR to use in the same way that we use Hilton? If so, Williams is the guy and he puts up comparable next generation numbers to Hilton.

 

Do we want a guy who maximizes separation and makes the most of his YAC? Then we go with any of the 4 slot guys.

 

It is fascinating that Humphries, Cobb and Crowder are soooo close to being the same. And we see Humphries rumors of $10M a year but nothing close to that for Cobb or Crowder.

 

Williams is unique in that his usage as a result of his size and skill set makes him different from the other four. Different does not mean better. But different.

 

I personally want Tate. But I found it fascinating that if we miss on him, most people have a desire for Humphries. And Crowder is basically the same guy and the same age and sounds like he might be a significantly cheaper alternative.

 

 

 

 

FA WR Advanced Metrics.xlsx

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Can you tell me what Williams does better than Humphries and Tate, besides being big and fast? 

 

Because I can give you a virtually endless list of NFL receivers who are big and fast, but never become meaningful players. 

 

And if it's starting to sound like I don't like Williams, I should clarify that I actually do, and would be fine if we added him. But I think the analysis should be a little more critical than just 'he's big and fast and can play on the outside,' because that alone doesn't make him better than anyone. 

 

  He  was in the 98% tile in catch radius in his draft class, and 89% in burst, 84 in agility, and 80 in speed. 4.42.
 He is very quick off the line, and a good blocker.
  And like Inman he should quickly be able to produce in this offense.
 He had 2 drops for a 3.1% drop rate. T.Y. was 6 for 5%.
  He had 69 catches for over a 1000 yards and 7 tds a couple years ago, so he has done something.
  So how could he provide value? By being Big & Fast for one.
He will get behind his man, and Andrew is best IMO at throwing deeper.
And if teams fear him AND T.Y. going deeper, they will want to play a lot of 2 deep safeties. And that is SO GOOD for our run game, and Great for Ebron & Doyle.
 Now we all know you understand this so this is really for all that Don't Get how he is probably looked at by Ballard and Reich. A Alshon Jeffrey type role and maybe also better out of the slot because he is very Quick.
 

 So we are strong contenders to make the playoffs and knock on the door to the AFC Championship game next season. So getting an experienced guy in house NOW to help get there next season and beyond makes perfect sense.
 The $$$?  It is all about Guaranteed $$$. And if we have to guarantee him $24M in the 1st 2 years, he very well could add enough to the whole of the Offense to be worth it. The exact reason Ballard has crafted our Cap position is to be able to get the right pieces.
 Now we will see how FA goes. 

[Superman]

58 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Are you OK?      Because you can't be serious about what I put into bold.

 

What does Williams do that Humphries and Tate don't do?     Really?     Seriously?

 

Over the past 3 years,  Williams average nearly 16 yards a catch.    Only 6 WR's in the NFL have done that well (with at least 43 receptions)  and none of them are Humphries and Tate.    Those two now average about 10-12 yards per catch.

 

Williams is not like the other two.    I'll take anyone Ballard likes.   But if we sign Humphries or Tate (which I'd be happy to do)   we're not getting the same type of receiver as Williams is.

 

Williams takes the top off the defense.     The other two,  not at all.

 

Or am I not understanding your meaning?     Cuz if you're serious then I'm seriously confused.

 

 

How much of an overreaction were you going for? You could have really gotten your money's worth with a few more questions marks...

 

My point was pretty clear in my post, but I'll state it again: Williams being big and fast doesn't make him better than other receivers. 

 

And the reason I'm making an issue of it is because, over and over again, the special draw to Williams is 'he's big and fast, he can play on the outside, pay him whatever it takes.' As if being big and fast is all that matters. It's not. We know he's big and fast, now what else makes him a good receiver, worth $12m/year? What else makes him better than other free agents?

 

The other argument offered was 'Sammy Watkins got $16m/year, why not give Williams $12m/year?' And the obvious answer is because it was stupid to give Watkins $16m/year for 40 catches and three TDs.

 

You're at least offering some kind of analysis. Williams has big play ability, that's something that distinguishes him from the rest of the FA class. (I think this draft is littered with receivers with big play ability, but that's a separate discussion.)

 

In response, I'd say that while big play ability is a desirable trait, we're still talking about a player who has averaged less than three catches per game for the last two seasons. He's still significantly less productive than other players available in free agency. (Humphries, for instance, played with Evans, Jackson and Godwin, got only 20 more snaps, but was targeted 40 more times.) He's less consistent in the intermediate game, he doesn't get separation, he doesn't reliably get open on third down... And he's been playing for a coordinator and QB who favor the deep game, while Reich seems to be interested in a more efficient passing attack, which I think would be better served to add receivers who get open right away and produce after the catch.

 

So even though Williams is a better big play receiver -- and thank you for bringing something relevant to the table -- that doesn't mean he's a better receiver than other FAs, nor does it mean he would be better for the Colts. That's still a matter to be considered.

 

And like I said earlier, I like Williams. I've been talking about him being a FA target since September. He would be a logical fit, his strengths would complement our offense, etc. But now, we're talking about paying him $12m/year, making him the 15th highest paid receiver in the league. And the common offering has been 'he's big and fast, just pay him whatever it takes.' 

 

Let's talk about his actual play, not just his height, weight and speed. 

[Superman]

@TomDiggs @throwing BBZ

 

Thank you both for two great posts.

[EastStreet]

27 minutes ago, TomDiggs said:

 

This made me super curious since I respect the opinions and commentary that both you and Superman bring to the forum.

 

And since I am a total stats/metrics nerd, I wanted to dig (Fair warning, long post and attached analysis. Stop reading or turn back now if you are bored by long posts, analysis and nerdy stat people).

 

Soooo here is what I dug up and compiled. This is based on stats from Next Gen Stats and it is averaged over three year (2016-2018) to give a broad sample size (spreadsheet attached for those that love stats like me- if my attachment works. Never tried that before).

 

I compared 5 top FAs (Williams, Tate, Humphries, Cobb, Crowder) to Hilton (since he is someone beloved by us and known to us).

 

Compared the Yards after catch per reception, YAC+ (basically how well a player performs after the catch versus what would be expected of a player on each reception they make), Separation (how open are they getting?), Targeted Air yards (how far downfield are they?) and catch percentage.

 

One interesting find:

 

Hilton: 5.1, 0.1, 2.5, 12.6, 58.1

Williams: 6.7, -0.6, 2.8, 12.7, 61.1

 

So the interesting part about this is Williams is very much used by SD as we use Hilton. He averaged a much better YAC, but that doesn't tell the whole story. His YAC+ is not good. At all. So while he gets yards after the catch based on how he was used, he left yards on the field and didn't perform as any player would be expected on his catches.

 

Tate: 6.5, 1.2, 2.8, 6.7, 70.0

Humphries: 6.0, 0.4, 3.5, 6.1, 70.7

Cobb: 6.3, 0.5, 3.3, 7.2, 68.5

Crowder: 6.3, 0.3, 3.2, 8.4, 63.7

 

What does this all mean in summary?

 

The intuitive stuff of Tate, Cobb, Humphries and Crowder being slots and playing closer to the line shows up. They all averaged targets 6-8 or so yards down the field compared to Hilton and Williams being over 12 yards down the field.

 

Williams basically outperforms Hilton in all facets other than YAC+. Where everyone beats him readily. He is a below average player in maximizing his YAC. So he gets YAC, but not as much as he should.

 

The guy who excels and gets the most YAC compared to what he should per catch?.....Golden Tate. And he is almost 3 times as good as the next best guy on that list.

 

All of these guys get better separation than Hilton and they range from 2.8 to 3.5 yards.

 

For me, the fun of this was seeing who did what and what are the Colts looking for? Are we looking for another WR to use in the same way that we use Hilton? If so, Williams is the guy and he puts up comparable next generation numbers to Hilton.

 

Do we want a guy who maximizes separation and makes the most of his YAC? Then we go with any of the 4 slot guys.

 

It is fascinating that Humphries, Cobb and Crowder are soooo close to being the same. And we see Humphries rumors of $10M a year but nothing close to that for Cobb or Crowder.

 

Williams is unique in that his usage as a result of his size and skill set makes him different from the other four. Different does not mean better. But different.

 

I personally want Tate. But I found it fascinating that if we miss on him, most people have a desire for Humphries. And Crowder is basically the same guy and the same age and sounds like he might be a significantly cheaper alternative.

 

 

 

 

FA WR Advanced Metrics.xlsx

I'm with you on Tate. I also like Tate because I think we could get him for a shorter term contract, or a more reasonable longer term. While I like Williams, he's too similar to TY stat wise, and use. Different body types though, and I like Williams' size. If they are going for Williams, perhaps they'd move TY around including some at slot. Not sure how much longer at 30 he maintains the speed.

 

Honestly I want Luck to get whatever toy he wants. I'm just hesitant to spend big and long. And I do think we are a stud Edge, rush DT, and legit #2 WR away from competing for a SB.

[throwing BBZ]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

@TomDiggs @throwing BBZ

 

Thank you both for two great posts.

 

 And thank you. It is a fun exercise. 
 I really hadn't looked at him until i saw you and NCF rangling.  
  Ya perked my interest.  
 His college Senior highlights showed great quickness off the line getting open.
 And route savy. I see a better version of what Inman did for us. Over a season that could be very positive.
And i am concerned about TY staying healthy for 16 games going forward.

[throwing BBZ]

3 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

I'm with you on Tate. I also like Tate because I think we could get him for a shorter term contract, or a more reasonable longer term. While I like Williams, he's too similar to TY stat wise, and use. Different body types though, and I like Williams' size. If they are going for Williams, perhaps they'd move TY around including some at slot. Not sure how much longer at 30 he maintains the speed.

 

Honestly I want Luck to get whatever toy he wants. I'm just hesitant to spend big and long. And I do think we are a stud Edge, rush DT, and legit #2 WR away from competing for a SB.

 

 Luck wants whatever Frank says he needs to attack D's. And i KNOW Andrew is best at stretching the field, it is what he LOVES.
 We have every reason to expect CB to hit ALL of your wants in FA and the draft.

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Luck wants whatever Frank says he needs to attack D's. And i KNOW Andrew is best at stretching the field, it is what he LOVES.
 We have every reason to expect CB to hit ALL of your wants in FA and the draft.

I'd say Luck's input is as important as Franks. I think they are peas and carrots. So you could easily say Frank wants whatever Luck says he needs to attack D's. 

 

To me, it's going to come down to what Ballard is willing to do. I don't see him spending top 10 money. If we do go long term with Williams, I hope he's willing to be reasonable. I'm sure he knows that a Colts long term deal should provide ample op for winning!

[shasta519]

56 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

How much of an overreaction were you going for? You could have really gotten your money's worth with a few more questions marks...

 

My point was pretty clear in my post, but I'll state it again: Williams being big and fast doesn't make him better than other receivers. 

 

And the reason I'm making an issue of it is because, over and over again, the special draw to Williams is 'he's big and fast, he can play on the outside, pay him whatever it takes.' As if being big and fast is all that matters. It's not. We know he's big and fast, now what else makes him a good receiver, worth $12m/year? What else makes him better than other free agents?

 

The other argument offered was 'Sammy Watkins got $16m/year, why not give Williams $12m/year?' And the obvious answer is because it was stupid to give Watkins $16m/year for 40 catches and three TDs.

 

You're at least offering some kind of analysis. Williams has big play ability, that's something that distinguishes him from the rest of the FA class. (I think this draft is littered with receivers with big play ability, but that's a separate discussion.)

 

In response, I'd say that while big play ability is a desirable trait, we're still talking about a player who has averaged less than three catches per game for the last two seasons. He's still significantly less productive than other players available in free agency. (Humphries, for instance, played with Evans, Jackson and Godwin, got only 20 more snaps, but was targeted 40 more times.) He's less consistent in the intermediate game, he doesn't get separation, he doesn't reliably get open on third down... And he's been playing for a coordinator and QB who favor the deep game, while Reich seems to be interested in a more efficient passing attack, which I think would be better served to add receivers who get open right away and produce after the catch.

 

So even though Williams is a better big play receiver -- and thank you for bringing something relevant to the table -- that doesn't mean he's a better receiver than other FAs, nor does it mean he would be better for the Colts. That's still a matter to be considered.

 

And like I said earlier, I like Williams. I've been talking about him being a FA target since September. He would be a logical fit, his strengths would complement our offense, etc. But now, we're talking about paying him $12m/year, making him the 15th highest paid receiver in the league. And the common offering has been 'he's big and fast, just pay him whatever it takes.' 

 

Let's talk about his actual play, not just his height, weight and speed. 

 

He has a great highlight reel...because he is such a deep threat and makes splash plays. And I would love to have that type of threat on this team. But like you...I struggled with the cost..and I also think that type of player can be found in this draft.

 

 It's just hard for me to envision Luck bombing it down the field like Rivers does. But who knows...it's not like they had that type of weapon (outside of Hilton) last year. But without that...I think Williams loses a bit of value. So then it becomes about getting open in the intermediate range and picking up YAC. 

 

I really wish there was a Robert Woods type player in this FA group. But if I had to choose...someone like Tate and a pair of WRs in the draft would be my preference.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

How much of an overreaction were you going for? You could have really gotten your money's worth with a few more questions marks...

 

My point was pretty clear in my post, but I'll state it again: Williams being big and fast doesn't make him better than other receivers. 

 

And the reason I'm making an issue of it is because, over and over again, the special draw to Williams is 'he's big and fast, he can play on the outside, pay him whatever it takes.' As if being big and fast is all that matters. It's not. We know he's big and fast, now what else makes him a good receiver, worth $12m/year? What else makes him better than other free agents?

 

The other argument offered was 'Sammy Watkins got $16m/year, why not give Williams $12m/year?' And the obvious answer is because it was stupid to give Watkins $16m/year for 40 catches and three TDs.

 

You're at least offering some kind of analysis. Williams has big play ability, that's something that distinguishes him from the rest of the FA class. (I think this draft is littered with receivers with big play ability, but that's a separate discussion.)

 

In response, I'd say that while big play ability is a desirable trait, we're still talking about a player who has averaged less than three catches per game for the last two seasons. He's still significantly less productive than other players available in free agency. (Humphries, for instance, played with Evans, Jackson and Godwin, got only 20 more snaps, but was targeted 40 more times.) He's less consistent in the intermediate game, he doesn't get separation, he doesn't reliably get open on third down... And he's been playing for a coordinator and QB who favor the deep game, while Reich seems to be interested in a more efficient passing attack, which I think would be better served to add receivers who get open right away and produce after the catch.

 

So even though Williams is a better big play receiver -- and thank you for bringing something relevant to the table -- that doesn't mean he's a better receiver than other FAs, nor does it mean he would be better for the Colts. That's still a matter to be considered.

 

And like I said earlier, I like Williams. I've been talking about him being a FA target since September. He would be a logical fit, his strengths would complement our offense, etc. But now, we're talking about paying him $12m/year, making him the 15th highest paid receiver in the league. And the common offering has been 'he's big and fast, just pay him whatever it takes.' 

 

Let's talk about his actual play, not just his height, weight and speed. 

 

Where to start?

 

You asked one question at the start.    I answered it.

 

And in your post here,  you've brought numerous other arguments that I never raised.   Not in my posts to you or anywhere else.    I've not mentioned Williams height, weight or speed.  (though I personally like all those qualities)   I've ONLY dealt with one thing.    His results.

 

You'll see throughout this thread that I have repeatedly said I'm fine with whichever FA WR we bring in.   Yes, I'm assuming we'll go for one of the Big Three.   I recognize that this coaching staff and front office know what will fit best in their system.   A deep threat,  or a move the chains type of receiver.

 

But when you literally asked what does Williams do that Humphries and Tate don't,  I couldn't believe my eyes.     Isn't the answer clear and obvious?

 

All the other issues that you focused on are issues that other posters are raising.   I'm not.   I was hoping you and I would just focus on what you asked and what I answered.    Feels like I got lumped in with everyone else.     

 

To everything else....   If Ballard signs Williams when he could've signed either of the other two,  then I assume he values a deep threat.    But if the bidding gets too pricey and he signs one of the other two,  then I assume he's comfortable with a possession guy and our WR draft pick will be more of a deep threat that we will groom.

I'm good with whatever decision, Ballard and Reich want to go in.    They know better than I.

 

Personally,  I'm trying to keep it simple.    Deep threat or move the chains?    I think much of the other next gen stats can get a little overwhelming and result in a little too much paralysis by over analysis. 

 

Sorry if this got too dramatic for you.    Consider it sort of a backhanded compliment.    Since I hold you in the highest regard,  you're held to the highest standard.    I think the question you asked was not like your normal thought process.    I was....   (fill in with the adjective of your choice signifying "badly confused".)

 

Hope this clarifies things.....

 

 

[shasta519]

2 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

Ballard has admitted they have no idea about Cain. He is coming off a injury without insurance playing one game. 

 

Is everyone forgetting Luck and TY are pushing thirty. This team is ready to win now with a couple pieces. We can still draft and develop but I want to win now not in 3 years. I see a great receiver on Williams. Hexiust got caught up in a numbers game in LA.

 

Not saying rely on Cain. I am all for going strong at WR this offseason...trust me. I am just not convinced Williams is that guy at his supposed price...and I think the Colts might have that type of player on the roster in Cain or they could find a H/W/S guy in the draft. 

[MikeCurtis]

5 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

 

 

Luck and TY are pushing thirty. 

Great point

 

Why not make a push for what you need, now....... we arent that far away

 

We dont need to go crazy

 

Just 2-3 players that fit the YOUNG, Non headcase, and TALENTED

 

 

[superrep1967]

19 hours ago, richard pallo said:

Looks like the tampering has already begun.  Great news.  The Reich connection and Ebron's success could really help us.   I expect we will be connected to a few other players as well.  Looks like Ballard is about to open the checkbook.  

Yeah, Irsay's

[superrep1967]

8 hours ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

I trust Ballard and Co's intuition on this, but really hope they don't sign him to anything 10+ Million. I'd rather have a guy like Golden Tate tho if they're gonna venture into that price range. He's been way more consistent, for way longer, and 1000 yard seasons are basically the norm for him. If they went that route, they could draft a WR or two, and let him/them develop under TY and Golden. 

Yeah, I like Golden Tate much better than Williams who's 27 and has had only one good year.