2019 WR draft / film notes

[Superman]

12 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

I could see his traits being overvalued if we were in need of a true WR1, but as a complimentary piece to TY Hilton in our offense, I think his traits would translate well.

 

I don't mean overvalued in relation to our needs, I mean in general. A lot of H/W/S guys aren't translating to the NFL, especially if they're lacking refinement with hands and route running, which are two of the areas where Butler needs work.

 

That's just my own personal thinking, though. I'd rather get a more refined but lesser talented receiver later in the draft than go after the elite athletes who don't have the technical ability. 

[stitches]

@Superman Here's new couple of scouting reports by Cosell - Deebo Samuel and Marquise Brown:

 

 

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, stitches said:

@Superman Here's new couple of scouting reports by Cosell - Deebo Samuel and Marquise Brown:

 

 

 

No player comp for Deebo... 

[stitches]

40 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

No player comp for Deebo... 

I think his body type is confusing people, because he looks more like a RB than a WR and they have hard time projecting him because of it. Try to ignore his bulk for a moment. Think of him as an averagely sized WR for his height. Imagine he's 195lbs instead of 215... Imagine the same quickness, same route running, same ability to break tackles and gain yards after catch from the slot and same game breaking long-catch game. What do you see? Now add 20 pounds on top WITHOUT subtracting anything for it. Don't punish him for having a weird body type. He does what he does well with this body type. I don't think it's hindering him in any specific way. If anything it's probably helping him break tackles. He's not particularly shifty but that's not something out of the ordinary for most receivers. Not everybody is Parris Campbell. At least he has his bulk and explosiveness to gain YAC in different way than just making people miss by shiftiness. 

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

I think his body type is confusing people, because he looks more like a RB than a WR and they have hard time projecting him because of it. Try to ignore his bulk for a moment. Think of him as an averagely sized WR for his height. Imagine he's 195lbs instead of 215... Imagine the same quickness, same route running, same ability to break tackles and gain yards after catch both from the slot and same game breaking long-catch game. What do you see? Now add 20 pounds on top WITHOUT subtracting anything for it. Don't punish him for having weird body type. He does what he does well with this body type. I don't think it's hindering him in any specific way. If anything it's probably helping him break tackles. He's not particularly shifty but that's not something out of the ordinary for most receivers. Not everybody is Parris Campbell. 

 

So what's your player comp for him? 

[stitches]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

So what's your player comp for him? 

I don't have a great one. Stefon Diggs with 20 pounds on top is what comes to mind. A little less shifty, a little more physically explosive. 

[NewColtsFan]

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

So what's your player comp for him? 

 

Body wise?

 

I'd comp him to someone who retired about 5 years ago...    and I may botch his name somewhat...

 

Alto Bolden.    I believe he was on Baltimore's Super Bowl winning team.   I think he may have played another year or so...  then retired.     I think he was 6'0" and about 220-ish.

 

But he was known for being a "bad body" receiver....

 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

I don't have a great one. Stefon Diggs with 20 pounds on top is what comes to mind. A little less shifty, a little more physically explosive. 

 

Interesting...

 

Before the draft, I'll be back for Deebo.

[stitches]

 

18 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Interesting...

 

Before the draft, I'll be back for Deebo.

Here's one more... DJ Moore. I liked him a ton last year. He tested like an elite athlete though, while Deebo tested more like just a good athlete. 

 

Interestingly enough, Lance Zierlein's comp for Moore was Diggs   Moore was 6'0 210, too... which comes off very close body type-wise too. 

 

edit: So I guess, I would say ... slightly lesser version of DJ Moore... I had Moore with a 1st round grade last year and I will probably have Deebo with a late second value, which sounds about right for me. 

[Superman]

6 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Body wise?

 

I'd comp him to someone who retired about 5 years ago...    and I may botch his name somewhat...

 

Alto Bolden.    I believe he was on Baltimore's Super Bowl winning team.   I think he may have played another year or so...  then retired.     I think he was 6'0" and about 220-ish.

 

But he was known for being a "bad body" receiver....

 

 

Anquan Boldin. 

 

They're more similar in body size than I thought. For some reason, I had Boldin at 6'3" -ish. He was closer to 6'0". And about 220 pounds.

[stitches]

Isabella looks so damn sharp and quick:

 

[NewColtsFan]

9 minutes ago, stitches said:

Isabella looks so damn sharp and quick:

 

 

I feel like Goldilocks with Isabella.

 

Pick 89 might be too late. 

 

Pick 59 might be too soon. 

 

But somewhere inbetween might be juuuusssst right!

 

Honestly,  if we want him,  my guess is we’d use pick 59 to make sure we get him.

[stitches]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I feel like Goldilocks with Isabella.

 

Pick 89 might be too late. 

 

Pick 59 might be too soon. 

 

But somewhere inbetween might be juuuusssst right!

 

Honestly,  if we want him,  my guess is we’d use pick 59 to make sure we get him.

I will have him ranked higher than 59 for sure. For me he will be in early-mid R2 value range. If he drops to 59, IMO that's a good value. 

[RNGDShobby]

Samuel and Isabella are my #s 1&2 for value in this class. If we get either i will be very happy.

[EastStreet]

13 minutes ago, stitches said:

I will have him ranked higher than 59 for sure. For me he will be in early-mid R2 value range. If he drops to 59, IMO that's a steal. 

 

Andy is moving up the different big boards used in simulators, and also up the traditional mocks too.  some boards more than other, but definitely trending nicely across all. he lit up UGA beautifully. i'd bet a mint that he doesn't make it to 89. i'd be overjoyed with him at 59. 

 

i try to do a mock or two a day with morning coffee lol. in the last two weeks, i've seen a ton of movement in WR and some other interesting positions. 

 

Other WR movement

Both Browns  has dropped multiple times. 

Harry (ASU) has started to drop. 

Harmon has dropped a bunch.

JJ A-Whiteside, Boykin, and Hurd have all moved up.

 

Some other noticeable movement (non-WR) this week

Simmons (DL) finally started to drop (injury). Some board have him dropping even to early R3

Tillery (DL) moving up in several.

Polite (Edge) down, some way down

Ss Thornhill and CGJ are moving starting to move up. Hooker moving up, but not as much.

S Abram dropping a bit

CB Deandre Baker starting to drop due to combine chatter about him. Julian love a little drop too.

And in general, a lot of OTs are going much earlier than a few weeks ago, and RBs are as predicted dropping. 

 

going to be very interesting.

[MikeCurtis]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I feel like Goldilocks with Isabella.

 

Pick 89 might be too late. 

 

Pick 59 might be too soon. 

 

But somewhere inbetween might be juuuusssst right!

 

Honestly,  if we want him,  my guess is we’d use pick 59 to make sure we get him.

Great comment

 

I am still very high on Butler as our 2nd round reciever, but after adding another tall receiver, to go with our other tall receivers, (with the exception of Hilton of course) I think we may look to a smaller, speedster type (Hilton clone)

 

As a change of pace, and someone to always get open between the 20s, we need a quick of the line jitterbug

 

This offense needs a player like Hilton, if he goes down, we got nada. We could have both on the field and cause havoc

 

I like Campbell a bit more than Isabella, but they both are electric, impossible to cover, and dont drop passes

 

The both can take it to the house, on ANY play. Watch the Ohio State vs Michigan Game (Yeah.........  we BEAT THEM AGAIN   )  Campbell couldnt be stopped, by a good Michigan defense

 

I think this team needs to go defense on 26, or trade out

 

But...... to get Campbell..........  that 34th pick seems like the one. (Per the legend, sometimes grouchy NCF, Isabella has a chance of lasting to 89, but may also be gone before)

 

Campbell isnt getting out of round 2

 

This brings up a bigger question

 

What difference maker on the DL will be available at 26.

 

If we DONT go Tillery....... than who?

 

We SHOULDNT just take a DL just to take a DL.

 

BUT...... WE WILL PROBABLY KEEP ADDING TO THE DL

 

IMHO

 

I am not jazzed by bringing in a 5th person to play UT. (Only)

 

IF Tillary is proven to be a headcase, and Clelin doesnt make it to us,  I could very much see us taking a line up like:

 

Chauncy Gardner (S) - 26

Campbell (WR) - 34 

Winowich (DE) - 56

Saunders (DT) - 3rd (he is very streaky)

Greg Gaines (DT) - 4th

BEST OT /CB prospect available - 4B

BEST OT/CB  prospect available - 5

 

IMHO, Gardner will turn out to be the same type of player that Derwin James is for the Chargers...... This defense NEEDS another all over the field enforcer

 

 

 

 

 

[stitches]

35 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

Great comment

 

I am still very high on Butler as our 2nd round reciever, but after adding another tall receiver, to go with our other tall receivers, (with the exception of Hilton of course) I think we may look to a smaller, speedster type (Hilton clone)

 

As a change of pace, and someone to always get open between the 20s, we need a quick of the line jitterbug

 

This offense needs a player like Hilton, if he goes down, we got nada. We could have both on the field and cause havoc

 

I like Campbell a bit more than Isabella, but they both are electric, impossible to cover, and dont drop passes

 

The both can take it to the house, on ANY play. Watch the Ohio State vs Michigan Game (Yeah.........  we BEAT THEM AGAIN   )  Campbell couldnt be stopped, by a good Michigan defense

 

I think this team needs to go defense on 26, or trade out

 

But...... to get Campbell..........  that 34th pick seems like the one. (Per the legend, sometimes grouchy NCF, Isabella has a chance of lasting to 89, but may also be gone before)

 

Campbell isnt getting out of round 2

 

This brings up a bigger question

 

What difference maker on the DL will be available at 26.

 

If we DONT go Tillery....... than who?

 

We SHOULDNT just take a DL just to take a DL.

 

BUT...... WE WILL PROBABLY KEEP ADDING TO THE DL

 

IMHO

 

I am not jazzed by bringing in a 5th person to play UT. (Only)

 

IF Tillary is proven to be a headcase, and Clelin doesnt make it to us,  I could very much see us taking a line up like:

 

Chauncy Gardner (S) - 26

Campbell (WR) - 34 

Winowich (DE) - 56

Saunders (DT) - 3rd (he is very streaky)

Greg Gaines (DT) - 4th

BEST OT /CB prospect available - 4B

BEST OT/CB  prospect available - 5

 

IMHO, Gardner will turn out to be the same type of player that Derwin James is for the Chargers...... This defense NEEDS another all over the field enforcer

 

 

Tillery is not really a headcase(not that I know of). It seems like the biggest worry about him is that he reads a lot. Like... seriously. Some scouts think he's too worldly, has too many interests outside of football. If not Tillery then... the question is... if Simmons is there at 26 do you draft him? We cannot be sure what Ballard's intel is telling him about the off-the-field situation with Simmons. You list Winowich at 59 but there is a real possibility that the lack of EDGE defenders in the early-mid second range pushes him up and you might have to draft him with 34 if you want him. I will be going through Anthony Nelson's tape because his production and athletic testing suggest he might be high end prospect, but I need to go through the film to see how he uses his athleticism and whether his production is real or garbage.

 

About the WRs... You and me are the biggest Butler fans here. IMO if you like the player you don't make a decision based on having signed a 1 year deal with Funchess. You cannot allow Funchess to be the reason to not draft a real difference maker at X iso receiver. Those are incredibly valuable in the league and if you think he's going to be that you just draft him and let him fight it out for the starting spot with Funchess. Or just use Funchess as a big slot. You draft in the first a prospect with the thought that he will be key piece for you for future 5-10 years, you don't draft him for his rookie season. 

 

I love Campbell too. To the point where I wouldn't even be upset if we draft him at 26. 

 

[akcolt]

On 3/21/2019 at 11:54 AM, Superman said:

 

So what's your player comp for him? 

How about a kid who’s been drawing comparisons to Tyler Lockett and Tyreek Hill? I think he compares to Hill.  He’s doesn’t have the resume of Lockett who was coming off back to back 1000 yard seasons coming out of MSU. 

 

Mecole Hardman has the wiggle to get past the first guy then that special burst to top speed. He is an explosive playmaker a true home run threat who impacts 2 phases of the game.

 

It’s his ability to change the game on special teams that sets him apart. The kid is a dangerous return man. He can take it to the house in a blink of the eye. 

 

He is a speed guy no question but he plays with a toughnesss. He has only scratched the surface of his talent. When the balls in his hands he reminds me of Ty Hill. If he is even he is leavin I think the kid is going to be special. 

[MikeCurtis]

56 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

Tillery is not really a headcase(not that I know of). It seems like the biggest worry about him is that he reads a lot. Like... seriously. Some scouts think he's too worldly, has too many interests outside of football. If not Tillery then... the question is... if Simmons is there at 26 do you draft him?

 

 

About the WRs... You and me are the biggest Butler fans here. IMO if you like the player you 

 

I love Campbell too. To the point where I wouldn't even be upset if we draft him at 26. 

 

The game video and highlight video would both seem to say Tillary is the real deal

 

What I dont know is..... Is he a "Colts Culture" sort of individual, maybe headcase is too strong of a discription. 

 

Its clear that play on the field is only PART of the player evaluation for the Colts, which is awesome.   At this point, I have no idea on that part of the evaluation.

 

Its clear, there are no Jerks allowed in the Colts Locker room

 

 

The Simmons question is a good one

 

He is OBVIOUSLY a talent.  He isnt big enough to play anything but UT. He had just 2 sacks last year.  He had zero as a freshman, and had 5 for the previous year

 

7 sacks, over 3 years, isnt stellar

 

For a need for pass rush...... he isnt the guy IMHO.

 

After watching his "punching" video recently, I changed my mind on him being a possible option for the Colts at 34. (I didnt really want him there)

 

Beating on a woman, shows an enormous character flaw.

 

I counted FOUR punches, to a lady already down on the ground. 

 

She is not threatening him, She has no weapon..........  She is NO THREAT.

 

He wasnt 15...... this was more recent.

 

I WOULDNT TOUCH HIM WITH A TEN FOOT POLE

 

 

In regards to pass rush production.... before my rant....   2 sacks is not alot

 

Tillary had 7 the last year.  To me, Tillary is the PERFECT pick at the spot, and for this DL

 

I just wish we had some additional 2nd round picks to get the players that I want !

 

This is a great 2nd round IMHO

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MikeCurtis]

On 3/21/2019 at 2:01 PM, NewColtsFan said:

 

 

Alto Bolden.    I believe he was on Baltimore's Super Bowl winning team.   I think he may have played another year or so...  then retired.     I think he was 6'0" and about 220-ish.

 

 

Do you mean Balto, the dog from the disney movie?

 

I didnt know that he even played football, I think he was lighter than 220.

 

He seemed to run on all fours a bunch which might limit his catch radius

[stitches]

1 hour ago, MikeCurtis said:

The game video and highlight video would both seem to say Tillary is the real deal

 

What I dont know is..... Is he a "Colts Culture" sort of individual, maybe headcase is too strong of a discription. 

 

Its clear that play on the field is only PART of the player evaluation for the Colts, which is awesome.   At this point, I have no idea on that part of the evaluation.

 

Its clear, there are no Jerks allowed in the Colts Locker room

 

 

The Simmons question is a good one

 

He is OBVIOUSLY a talent.  He isnt big enough to play anything but UT. He had just 2 sacks last year.  He had zero as a freshman, and had 5 for the previous year

 

7 sacks, over 3 years, isnt stellar

 

For a need for pass rush...... he isnt the guy IMHO.

 

After watching the video recently, I changed my mind on him being a possible option for the Colts at 34. (I didnt really want him there)

 

Beating on a woman, is an enormous character flaw.

 

I counted FOUR punches, to a lady already down on the ground. 

 

She is not threatening him, She has no weapon..........  She is NO THREAT.

 

He wasnt 15...... this was more recent.

 

I WOULDNT TOUCH HIM WITH A TEN FOOT POLE

 

 

In regards to pass rush production.... before my rant....   2 sacks is not alot

 

Tillary had 7 the last year.  To me, Tillary is the PERFECT pick at the spot, and for this DL

 

I just wish we had some additional 2nd round picks to get the players that I want !

 

This is a great 2nd round IMHO

 

I don't want to excuse what he did, because it's disturbing and it's there for everyone to see, but I do think it needs some context. First from what I gather this is an incident from when he was still in high school. He wasn't 15 but he was still quite young(17 or 18?) at the time. It also involves family(the woman that he punched having attacked his sister) and very heightened emotions it seems. 

 

(It might be a bit long, but I decided to put my thoughts in writing because those types of situations seem to be happening again and again and I guess I wanted to clarify my thought process in general about cases like that.)

 

I guess at the end of the day there are several questions that I need to ask myself when deciding how to feel about the possibility of the Colts drafting him. 

 

Q1. Do you think a person like that is irredeemable? If my answer is that he's irredeemable the following questions don't really matter and you don't draft him no matter what.

 

Q2. Do you think Simmons specifically has taken the appropriate steps to rehabilitation and deserves a second chance going forward.

 

Q3. Do you think that he poses too big of a risk of doing something similar in the future? If your answer is yes, you don't draft him. 

 

Q4. Do you think drafting him would be too much of a black mark on the reputation of the team?

 

My answers on the questions :

 

A1: In general I'm a proponent of restorative justice rather than retributive justice and I believe that banishing people who've made mistakes and not allowing them to go on with their lives after they've served their sentence, does disservice both to the offender and to society at large. There has to be a path to rehabilitation and IMO holding stuff like that over their heads for eternity does nobody any good. Thus, my answer to Q1 would be - no, I don't think he is  irredeemable. I think even murderers should be allowed a path to redemption, so it's really not hard for me to forgive what seems to me a one off, emotion-laden ugly offense ... if he's taken the appropriate steps to rehabilitation. 

 

A2: This is really a question that only Ballard and those with good enough resources and intel can answer. Is he remorseful? Has he taken steps towards addressing whatever underlying problem lead him to that situation(anger management, if that is the problem? etc.). Has he taken steps toward expressing that remorse directly towards the victim. Has he taken steps toward reconciliation with the victim. Has he done any community work or has he tried spreading awareness about situations like the one he ended up in? You get the gist of it... the more of those he's done and the more honest and genuine he seems in doing those, the more I will feel comfortable with him and his current state of mind. 

 

A3: A lot of the answers Ballard gets in Q2 will be pertinent to answering this one. Again. I don't have the information to be able to give an answer to this one, but I think an NFL team with all its resources should be able to come to reasonable assessment of whether he's at risk of repeating the old mistakes. 

 

A4: I really don't know how to answer this one. It's complicated. I guess it's a question to Irsay and his family, because whether we are willing to give him a chance is one question... whether the society and community will like that is completely different question. 

 

I guess at the end of the day it boils down to Ballard's intel and evaluation of what Simmons' current state of mind is, whether he's taken steps towards rehabilitation and on the other hand whether Irsay is willing to take the reputation hit in case Ballard's intel makes him comfortable drafting him. 

 

On the production question you raised - I don't like citing sack numbers as a definitive answer, because they are very unstable stat. Pressures and win% are more stable and better descriptor of how good of a pass-rusher a player is. Simmons has rated very high on those and his tape suggests that he is a very good pass rusher and much better than what his sack numbers suggest. 

[BOTT]

7 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I feel like Goldilocks with Isabella.

 

Pick 89 might be too late. 

 

Pick 59 might be too soon. 

 

But somewhere inbetween might be juuuusssst right!

 

Honestly,  if we want him,  my guess is we’d use pick 59 to make sure we get him.

Listening to their podcast, kiper and McShay think Isabella is a 4th rounder. If he turns into a stud slot receiver, nobody will care if he was drafted 59th or 89th..

[MikeCurtis]

26 minutes ago, stitches said:

I don't want to excuse what he did, because it's disturbing and it's there for everyone to see, but I do think it needs some context. First from what I gather this is an incident from when he was still in high school. He wasn't 15 but he was still quite young(17 or 18?) at the time. It also involves family(the woman that he punched having attacked his sister) and very heightened emotions it seems. 

 

(It might be a bit long, but I decided to put my thoughts in writing because those types of situations seem to be happening again and again and I guess I wanted to clarify my thought process in general about cases like that.)

 

I guess at the end of the day there are several questions that I need to ask myself when deciding how to feel about the possibility of the Colts drafting him. 

 

Q1. Do you think a person like that is irredeemable? If my answer is that he's irredeemable the following questions don't really matter and you don't draft him no matter what.

I dont know the kid personally. He appears to have his head on straight today..... but..... THIS IS A TREASURED FIRST ROUND PICK....... I MIGHT take a chance on a kid in round 3 or 4........  But not with my early picks......  

Quote

 

Q2. Do you think Simmons specifically has taken the appropriate steps to rehabilitation and deserves a second chance going forward.

I dont know, everyone should get a second chance.  I have done some things that I am not proud of (NOTHING LIKE THIS) and people gave me second chances...... but they didnt risk BIG in the process.     A first round flop hurts a team for a few years..... They HAVE to contribute.   

Quote

 

Q3. Do you think that he poses too big of a risk of doing something similar in the future? If your answer is yes, you don't draft him. 

Do I think that he is going to beat up another woman?.... I dont know.  What does he do if a woman that he dates him slaps him...... does he punch them.....  I think he very well MIGHT

 

Before I met my awesome wife, I dated some clear beautiful girls, that were hot headed

 

As he is a professional athlete ..... he will draw women from all over.......   

 

Some will be NUTS......  Some will push his buttons

 

And a question for you........ Would you want your sister to date him.... would you trust him?

 

I wouldnt

 

He was clearly not taught well. He is a risk that we dont need to take

 

Quote

 

Q4. Do you think drafting him would be too much of a black mark on the reputation of the team?

Maybe......... The reason I DONT want him is 50/50 character question...... equally important is the guy IS NOT a PASS RUSHER. 

 

Sacks ARE actually the most important component of performance, but I agree not the be-all.

 

He is decent on TFL.    

 

If a guy cant get at least some sacks, against college players..... how much worse does he get in the pros?

 

Im not saying he is a bad player.......  

 

Quote

My answers on the questions :

 

A1: In general I'm a proponent of restorative justice rather than retributive justice and I believe that banishing people who've made mistakes and not allowing them to go on with their lives after they've served their sentence, does disservice both to the offender and to society at large. There has to be a path to rehabilitation and IMO holding stuff like that over their heads for eternity does nobody any good. Thus, my answer to Q1 would be - no, I don't think he is  irredeemable. I think even murderers should be allowed a path to redemption, so it's really not hard for me to forgive what seems to me a one off, emotion-laden ugly offense ... if he's taken the appropriate steps to rehabilitation. 

 

A2: This is really a question that only Ballard and those with good enough resources and intel can answer. Is he remorseful? Has he taken steps towards addressing whatever underlying problem lead him to that situation(anger management, if that is the problem? etc.). Has he taken steps toward expressing that remorse directly towards the victim. Has he taken steps toward reconciliation with the victim. Has he done any community work or has he tried spreading awareness about situations like the one he ended up in? You get the gist of it... the more of those he's done and the more honest and genuine he seems in doing those, the more I will feel comfortable with him and his current state of mind. 

 

A3: A lot of the answers Ballard gets in Q2 will be pertinent to answering this one. Again. I don't have the information to be able to give an answer to this one, but I think an NFL team with all its resources should be able to come to reasonable assessment of whether he's at risk of repeating the old mistakes. 

 

A4: I really don't know how to answer this one. It's complicated. I guess it's a question to Irsay and his family, because whether we are willing to give him a chance is one question... whether the society and community will like that is completely different question. 

 

I guess at the end of the day it boils down to Ballard's intel and evaluation of what Simmons' current state of mind is, whether he's taken steps towards rehabilitation and on the other hand whether Irsay is willing to take the reputation hit in case Ballard's intel makes him comfortable drafting him. 

 

On the production question you raised - I don't like citing sack numbers as a definitive answer, because they are very unstable stat. Pressures and win% are more stable and better descriptor of how good of a pass-rusher a player is. Simmons has rated very high on those and his tape suggests that he is a very good pass rusher and much better than what his sack numbers suggest. 

 

[BOTT]

On 3/20/2019 at 1:36 PM, stitches said:

Would you be upset if we got Hakeem Butler AND Parris Campbell in the second round? 

I'm a big fan of Butler, but getting both TJ Hockenson and Parris Campbell would make me giddy. And I'm usually all about the trenches early in the draft.  I doubt either fall to the colts, so just wishful thinking.

[stitches]

20 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

And a question for you........ Would you want your sister to date him.... would you trust him?

 

I wouldnt

I mean... I would trust my sister to make her decisions in life, but I get what you mean. How would I feel about it? Depends on what my 'intel' and personal experience with him tells me. It's possible I wouldn't trust him at all. It's possible I would trust him more than a random person. The problem with deciding whether to trust a person based on the worst thing he's done is valid. We don't really know much about him, besides that he punched a woman multiple times on a random day when he was 18. Imagine if all people knew about you was the worst thing you've ever done. Would you trust yourself if the only thing you knew about yourself is the worst thing you've ever done? That's why I'm saying you need to know more about him. You need to know how he's reacted to it and what steps he's taken in the aftermath of what undoubtedly is a very very ugly thing he did. 

 

Quote

Maybe......... The reason I DONT want him is 50/50 character question...... equally important is the guy IS NOT a PASS RUSHER. 

 

I was talking more in general than about Simmons specifically. Imagine the perfect prospect. Imagine Bosa or Quinnen, or whoever you think is the best prospect in this draft(or at least imagine a clearcut BPA at where we are drafting), did the same thing and you had the chance to draft him. This is really the question. Because to me it's very possible that Simmons will be the BPA on my board where we draft(if he's not taken already). 

[Fluke_33]

2 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

The Simmons question is a good one

 

He is OBVIOUSLY a talent.  He isnt big enough to play anything but UT. He had just 2 sacks last year.  He had zero as a freshman, and had 5 for the previous year

 

7 sacks, over 3 years, isnt stellar

 

For a need for pass rush...... he isnt the guy IMHO.

 

After watching his "punching" video recently, I changed my mind on him being a possible option for the Colts at 34. (I didnt really want him there)

 

Beating on a woman, shows an enormous character flaw.

 

I counted FOUR punches, to a lady already down on the ground. 

 

She is not threatening him, She has no weapon..........  She is NO THREAT.

 

He wasnt 15...... this was more recent.

 

I WOULDNT TOUCH HIM WITH A TEN FOOT POLE

Yup.  He is off my board.  It would be one hell of an interview to get him back on 

[MikeCurtis]

28 minutes ago, stitches said:

I mean... I would trust my sister to make her decisions in life, but I get what you mean. How would I feel about it? Depends on what my 'intel' and personal experience with him tells me. It's possible I wouldn't trust him at all. It's possible I would trust him more than a random person. The problem with deciding whether to trust a person based on the worst thing he's done is valid. We don't really know much about him, besides that he punched a woman multiple times on a random day when he was 18. Imagine if all people knew about you was the worst thing you've ever done. Would you trust yourself if the only thing you knew about yourself is the worst thing you've ever done? That's why I'm saying you need to know more about him. You need to know how he's reacted to it and what steps he's taken in the aftermath of what undoubtedly is a very very ugly thing he did. 

 

 

I was talking more in general than about Simmons specifically. Imagine the perfect prospect. Imagine Bosa or Quinnen, or whoever you think is the best prospect in this draft(or at least imagine a clearcut BPA at where we are drafting), did the same thing and you had the chance to draft him. This is really the question. Because to me it's very possible that Simmons will be the BPA on my board where we draft(if he's not taken already). 

I dont really see a perfect prospect in this draft. At DL or any other position.

 

I think the two players that you mentioned (Bosa and Quinnen) are very close to being as good as it gets.

 

The risk factor is low, the ceiling is high

 

The performance is clearly there

 

From what I have seen, both have no past issues that would add risk

 

Simmons is clearly a top prospect, if he wasnt injured, AND he had no past, he is a top 10 pick

 

Still not at the level of Bosa and Quinnen, but top 10

 

With Simmons, the ceiling is high, but the risk factor is medium to high as well.

 

That means you dont put your eggs all in that one basket.... which equates to a top 45 pick

 

Round 3 on...... I probably STILL wouldnt do it..... But I can see a team taking a chance

 

Round 1.... No..... Bottom of round 2.... MAYBE

 

Much will go into the interviews...... does the kid get it, or does he try to explain it away.

 

The people that explain self inflicted problems away.....Arent learning from THEIR problem, or mistake.... It MIGHT happen again

 

 

We dont know the heart of this kid......  Interviews will show SOME of the heart

 

 

Lastly, Part of me thinks his natural position in the pros is actually DE in a 3-4.

 

Not UT in a 4-3 (He isnt a NT)

 

I dont see a fit here for many reasons

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[FalseStart]

Butler reminds me of Amani Toomer...

[Mr.NotSoCreative]

On 3/7/2019 at 3:01 PM, Surge89 said:

 

Yet again we find ourselves in complete agreement.

 

Harry is my favorite receiver prospect in this draft. He's going to surprise people.  He wasn't used properly in AZ State and still succeeded. Imo he and Brown are the 2 best receivers in this draft. And it isn't really close.  Those are my only 2 receivers that I have a first round grade with Butler a fringe first/second. 

I really like Harry as well, and Campbell as a kind of utility reciever out of slot, outside, anywhere really. Someone commented on Harry's ability in the red zone as being a bit of a negative. I dont think we need to worry so much about that as we have Ebron and now Funchess, and we use a lot of multiple TE looks to get mismatches. Add in Butler as a possible and that is a formidable list in the first 2 rounds for us.

[Mr.NotSoCreative]

41 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

I dont really see a perfect prospect in this draft. At DL or any other position.

 

I think the two players that you mentioned (Bosa and Quinnen) are very close to being as good as it gets.

 

The risk factor is low, the ceiling is high

 

The performance is clearly there

 

From what I have seen, both have no past issues that would add risk

 

Simmons is clearly a top prospect, if he wasnt injured, AND he had no past, he is a top 10 pick

 

Still not at the level of Bosa and Quinnen, but top 10

 

With Simmons, the ceiling is high, but the risk factor is medium to high as well.

 

That means you dont put your eggs all in that one basket.... which equates to a top 45 pick

 

Round 3 on...... I probably STILL wouldnt do it..... But I can see a team taking a chance

 

Round 1.... No..... Bottom of round 2.... MAYBE

 

Much will go into the interviews...... does the kid get it, or does he try to explain it away.

 

The people that explain self inflicted problems away.....Arent learning from THEIR problem, or mistake.... It MIGHT happen again

 

 

We dont know the heart of this kid......  Interviews will show SOME of the heart

 

 

Lastly, Part of me thinks his natural position in the pros is actually DE in a 3-4.

 

Not UT in a 4-3 (He isnt a NT)

 

I dont see a fit here for many reasons

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In regards to interviews, I think C Wilkens will ace them with his story, high character/dimeanor. Add in production and intangibles to go along with a need/upgrade in DL interior and maybe we somehow can get him at 26.

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, BOTT said:

Listening to their podcast, kiper and McShay think Isabella is a 4th rounder. If he turns into a stud slot receiver, nobody will care if he was drafted 59th or 89th..

Yeah...    I’ve seen projections for the kid that are all over the map.    

 

Question for you?    Was this a recent podcast?    Like,  after the combine?  Just curious if this is the latest viewpoint or perhaps something outdated?   Sometimes these evaluations change quickly.  

 

Just asking.....

[NewColtsFan]

For what little it’s worth...   I’ve removed two wide receivers completely from my board.   And I’ve liked both of them for months.

 

First is Butler.   I love the body, the speed, the arms and hand size...   but the BIG FLAW is catching ability. 

 

Saw an article a few days ago about Boom or Bust players...  under Butler it said his “drop” rate was.... (drum roll...) over 16 percent!  That’s one out if every six passes.   That’s possibly worse than Darrius Hayward-Bay.  

 

Hands can be improved a modest amount, but when they’re this bad,  it’s an ez no thanks for me.

 

The other player is Dillon Mitchell.  In his NFL.com bio, it states that those within the Oregon program openly question just how important football really is to Mitchell.   Talented?  Yes.  Hard working and dedicated?   No.  Hell, no!   Can there be a more damning thing to say about a player?   I don’t think so.   The exact opposite of what Ballard looks for.  (Sigh...) 

 

No terrible hands.   No terrible attitudes for me.   Poof!  Gone!

 

[EastStreet]

5 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

For what little it’s worth...   I’ve removed two wide receivers completely from my board.   And I’ve liked both of them for months.

 

First is Butler.   I love the body, the speed, the arms and hand size...   but the BIG FLAW is catching ability. 

 

Saw an article a few days ago about Boom or Bust players...  under Butler it said his “drop” rate was.... (drum roll...) over 16 percent!  That’s one out if every six passes.   That’s possibly worse than Darrius Hayward-Bay.  

 

Hands can be improved a modest amount, but when they’re this bad,  it’s an ez no thanks for me.

 

The other player is Dillon Mitchell.  In his NFL.com bio, it states that those within the Oregon program openly question just how important football really is to Mitchell.   Talented?  Yes.  Hard working and dedicated?   No.  Hell, no!   Can there be a more damning thing to say about a player?   I don’t think so.   The exact opposite of what Ballard looks for.  (Sigh...) 

 

No terrible hands.   No terrible attitudes for me.   Poof!  Gone!

 

but you're ok with a 14% drop rate?

[Matthew Gilbert]

12 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

Isabella has a chance of lasting to 89, but may also be gone before)

I'll take that bet. 

[NewColtsFan]

37 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

but you're ok with a 14% drop rate?

 

Who has a 14 percent drop rate?

 

i typically don’t gave access to that type of info.    

 

So, who?

 

[EastStreet]

16 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Who has a 14 percent drop rate?

 

i typically don’t gave access to that type of info.    

 

So, who?

 

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/devin-funchess/

[MikeCurtis]

6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

For what little it’s worth...   I’ve removed two wide receivers completely from my board.   And I’ve liked both of them for months.

 

First is Butler.   I love the body, the speed, the arms and hand size...   but the BIG FLAW is catching ability. 

 

Saw an article a few days ago about Boom or Bust players...  under Butler it said his “drop” rate was.... (drum roll...) over 16 percent!  That’s one out if every six passes.   That’s possibly worse than Darrius Hayward-Bay.  

 

Hands can be improved a modest amount, but when they’re this bad,  it’s an ez no thanks for me.

 

The other player is Dillon Mitchell.  In his NFL.com bio, it states that those within the Oregon program openly question just how important football really is to Mitchell.   Talented?  Yes.  Hard working and dedicated?   No.  Hell, no!   Can there be a more damning thing to say about a player?   I don’t think so.   The exact opposite of what Ballard looks for.  (Sigh...) 

 

No terrible hands.   No terrible attitudes for me.   Poof!  Gone!

 

Butler was my January February 2nd round pick

 

I still like  him, but think Campbell may be a better pick for this team

 

Where do you find drop %? There were comments, but I never saw the actual numbers on Butler

 

I watched every Buckeye game, and I dont remember a single drop from Campbell

 

Campbell could end up an amazing player

 

He brings a jet sweep talent that is tough to defend

 

He is also built like a RB........

 

 

 

 

 

Ebron was a great pickup..... but his drops ARE maddening

 

(I wouldnt throw to him on 3rd down)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MikeCurtis]

1 hour ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

I'll take that bet. 

For, or against ?

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

18 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

Butler was my January February 2nd round pick

 

I still like  him, but think Campbell may be a better pick for this team

 

Where do you find drop %? There were comments, but I never saw the actual numbers on Butler

 

I watched every Buckeye game, and I dont remember a single drop from Campbell

 

Ebron was a great pickup..... but his drops were maddening

 

(I wouldnt throw to him on 3rd down)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don’t remember the website...  but it was in an article about boom or bust players.    The segment in Butler talked about his 16 percent drop rate.  Stopped me in my tracks.  

 

If I find that story again,  I’ll link it.

[Matthew Gilbert]

13 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

For, or against ?

 

 

I'd be shocked if Isabella makes it out of the second round.