AAF already in jeopardy?

[ColtsBlueFL]

Carolina Hurricanes owner offers 250 million dollar cash infusion investment to keep league afloat!

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ftw/2019/02/19/aaf-emergency-investment/39079671/

 

And next year (2020) two more football leagues come online!!  The (new) XFL

 

https://www.xfl.com/

 

and Pacific Pro Football

 

https://www.foxsports.com/football/story/agent-yee-mccaffrey-to-lead-pacific-pro-football-league-010719

 

Going to be tough sledding down the road, methinks.

[Superman]

I would like to know some details about the finances before jumping to conclusions about the league's standing. That $250m might be enough for them to operate for a couple seasons, given the number of games and the limited player salaries.

 

Also, the people involved with the AAF, from Polian on down, have made it pretty clear that their hope is to be a developmental league for the NFL, and eventually to partner with the NFL. So I get the feeling they hope to be bought by the NFL, or at least subsidized by it. 

 

In that way, they're distinct from these other leagues that seem to envision themselves as competition to the NFL, which isn't gonna work. And PPF wants to be an alternative to college football, which will have it's own challenges. But it will have a smaller footprint, being contained within SoCal with only four teams, at least to start.

[Superman]

Additional info here: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/02/19/ebersol-aaf-cash-infusion-from-dundon-was-about-opportunity-not-urgency/

 

Spin with some truth, or truth with some spin? Either way, the AAF is saying the investment wasn't bailing out the league, just a big investment.

 

Kind of makes sense. The player salaries for three years are ~$110m, total, and I assume that's the biggest expense for the league. Theoretically, Dundon's investment bankrolls at least player compensation for at least six seasons.

[ColtsBlueFL]

50 minutes ago, Superman said:

Additional info here: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/02/19/ebersol-aaf-cash-infusion-from-dundon-was-about-opportunity-not-urgency/

 

Spin with some truth, or truth with some spin? Either way, the AAF is saying the investment wasn't bailing out the league, just a big investment.

 

Kind of makes sense. The player salaries for three years are ~$110m, total, and I assume that's the biggest expense for the league. Theoretically, Dundon's investment bankrolls at least player compensation for at least six seasons.

 

Spin it may be as players not getting paid indicates urgency of some type...

 

https://nypost.com/2019/02/19/aaf-is-rescued-at-last-second-from-being-a-broke-fiasco/

 

The AAF missed payroll, and the players finally got paid today.  After the quarter billion dollar funds investment.  That buys time for them to find revenue generating vehicles for  the league.

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Spin it may be as players not getting paid indicates urgency of some type...

 

https://nypost.com/2019/02/19/aaf-is-rescued-at-last-second-from-being-a-broke-fiasco/

 

The AAF missed payroll, and the players finally got paid today.  After the quarter billion dollar funds investment.  That buys time for them to find revenue generating vehicles for  the league.

 

Yeah, so there was a cash flow problem. 

 

Don't know if that means there was a revenue problem, though. They could have staggered payments from the networks, maybe escalators based on ratings, etc., and those funds haven't come in yet. But it is interesting that they didn't have the funds secured in time to make their commitments -- assuming they did miss payroll due to cash flow, and not a glitch like they claimed.

 

Either way, with Dundon dropping $250m, they don't have any reason to run out of cash in the next couple years. 

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2019/02/18/aaf-football-san-diego-fleet/2903068002/

 

Stadium costs can probably be estimated at $200k/game (SD is being paid $185k/game, and that's probably on the high end), totaling around $8m/year. Player salaries are around $40m/year. Travel and accommodations, security, benefits, technology, etc., probably another $40-50m/year. Dundon's investment alone -- setting aside revenues, TV money, and other income -- should guarantee them at least two full seasons.

[ColtsBlueFL]

19 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Yeah, so there was a cash flow problem. 

 

Don't know if that means there was a revenue problem, though. They could have staggered payments from the networks, maybe escalators based on ratings, etc., and those funds haven't come in yet. But it is interesting that they didn't have the funds secured in time to make their commitments -- assuming they did miss payroll due to cash flow, and not a glitch like they claimed.

 

Either way, with Dundon dropping $250m, they don't have any reason to run out of cash in the next couple years. 

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2019/02/18/aaf-football-san-diego-fleet/2903068002/

 

Stadium costs can probably be estimated at $200k/game (SD is being paid $185k/game, and that's probably on the high end), totaling around $8m/year. Player salaries are around $40m/year. Travel and accommodations, security, benefits, technology, etc., probably another $40-50m/year. Dundon's investment alone -- setting aside revenues, TV money, and other income -- should guarantee them at least two full seasons.

 

It appears that there likely was a cash flow issue, but the AAF denies it while  'sources' continue to confirm it.  With the $250 million invested, that is no longer an issue, near term.  Now the question is, how does Dundon recoup his quarter billion dollars?  He's not getting it back in TV and ticket sales.  Seems to me the hope there is get the AAF in (including financial) shape for the NFL to buy it as their 'minor league'.

 

I thought I saw where Ebersol was quoted as it is projected to cost $750 million (minimum) over the next 5 years to keep it running.  That poses interesting future scenarios.

[lollygagger8]

I hope they keep it going. The refs are killing the NFL (along with many other issues) and this is a great alternative.

 

[Superman]

42 minutes ago, lollygagger8 said:

I hope they keep it going. The refs are killing the NFL (along with many other issues) and this is a great alternative.

 

 

It's definitely an inferior product, I don't see it as an alternative. But it can help improve the NFL product, with development for everyone involved.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

Now the question is, how does Dundon recoup his quarter billion dollars?  He's not getting it back in TV and ticket sales.  Seems to me the hope there is get the AAF in (including financial) shape for the NFL to buy it as their 'minor league'.

 

In the short term, the only way for him to make his money back is to sell the league, but he and Ebersol have said that's not the goal. They want to grow the league. I don't know how much they can realistically grow this league, especially to make it profitable, but even if they did, that's a very long term play.

 

As for TV, I think that's their biggest potential for growth. There's no real TV broadcasts for professional football in the US from February to August, especially on broadcast TV; you have to dig deep into cable packages for a CFL game, and the rules are different, so it's probably never going to catch on in the US. Between 2014-2022, the networks are paying the NFL around $40b. Over the next five years, I could see someone making a nice broadcast offer to a league like this. It also helps that they're embracing technology that makes their product stream-friendly.

[Jdubu]

Could the AAF end up either as the minor league football scenario or even a more robust thought, an eventual merger with the NFL , much like way back when the AFL/NFL merged? This is a ballon being floated up to see how other regions are interested in offseason football and maybe gauges where there could be potential for expansion without having a full fledged NFL team located there and possibly failing. It’s a thought outside of the mainstream thinking but it’s plausible that it could be possible. 

[lollygagger8]

21 hours ago, Superman said:

 

It's definitely an inferior product, I don't see it as an alternative. But it can help improve the NFL product, with development for everyone involved.

 

It's not even through the first year, so I would hope they would improve on it to make it better and better. 

[Superman]

2 hours ago, lollygagger8 said:

 

It's not even through the first year, so I would hope they would improve on it to make it better and better. 

 

The whole idea of the league is to take NFL rejects and help them develop so they can contribute in the NFL. That's true of the players, coaches, front office staff, scouts, refs, basically anyone involved with the quality of the product. They want to the be the developmental league for the NFL. It will always be an inferior product, especially on the field. 

[holeymoley99]

It seems an original investor pulled out, they were counting on that money so this is essentially a replacement money wise. The quality is high at certain positions, the defense as expected ahead of the offenses except in Orlando. Kickers are actually performing better than NFL level which is common in alternate leagues and we typically see several back in the NFL. O line in the NFL are weakest and if any O linemen show anything their value is great. Former Colt Kitt O Brien is flourishing.  I wouldnt mind seeing Garrett Gilbert brought in as a potential backup to Luck especially if Brissett is dealt, has an NFL arm even played week 17 for Carolina and like Andrew his dad was an NFL backup QB for many years.