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This types of trades are very prevalent in the NBA, but largely unexplored in the NFL. The Osweiler one was the only example I could think of too. 

 

It's very hard to gauge the value of such a trade. If this is the only thing we get for absorbing that contract WHILE giving up Brissett, then this would be a firm NO from me. Unless we get a 3d or better for Brissett alone I personally wouldn't trade him at all. He has more value as insurance to us than 60 places jump in the mid-late draft. IMO getting a second is more along the lines of a good value for such a trade because you accumulate value  for the team you are trading with. You BOTH give them a shot at a long-term starter(who is SUPERCHEAP for this year) AND you alleviate their salary cap issues. This should be worth more than 3d for 5th swap. 

 

If it is 2nd + bad salary QB for Brissett, I'd probably do it. 

Maybe 3d +4th + bad salary QB for Brissett?

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1 hour ago, stitches said:

This types of trades are very prevalent in the NBA, but largely unexplored in the NFL. The Osweiler one was the only example I could think of too. 

 

It's very hard to gauge the value of such a trade. If this is the only thing we get for absorbing that contract WHILE giving up Brissett, then this would be a firm NO from me. Unless we get a 3d or better for Brissett alone I personally wouldn't trade him at all. He has more value as insurance to us than 60 places jump in the mid-late draft. IMO getting a second is more along the lines of a good value for such a trade because you accumulate value  for the team you are trading with. You BOTH give them a shot at a long-term starter(who is SUPERCHEAP for this year) AND you alleviate their salary cap issues. This should be worth more than 3d for 5th swap. 

 

If it is 2nd + bad salary QB for Brissett, I'd probably do it. 

Maybe 3d +4th + bad salary QB for Brissett?

 

Take the JB option off the table. 

 

Just trading for Keenum, or Bortles (or both, maybe?), while absorbing their guaranteed money -- $7m for Keenum, $6.5m for Bortles -- and releasing them outright.

 

Is that $7m price tag worth a third round pick?

 

And this is assuming that Denver or Jacksonville would agree to give up a third rounder in this kind of deal.

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2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Take the JB option off the table. 

 

Just trading for Keenum, or Bortles (or both, maybe?), while absorbing their guaranteed money -- $7m for Keenum, $6.5m for Bortles -- and releasing them outright.

 

Is that $7m price tag worth a third round pick?

 

And this is assuming that Denver or Jacksonville would agree to give up a third rounder in this kind of deal.

 

 Those teams 3rd round picks would put CB in a position to draft players he thinks have 2nd rd value to him. Or allow him to move into the 2nd pretty easily to get His guy. This sounds like a real option. 
 

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11 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Take the JB option off the table. 

 

Just trading for Keenum, or Bortles (or both, maybe?), while absorbing their guaranteed money -- $7m for Keenum, $6.5m for Bortles -- and releasing them outright.

 

Is that $7m price tag worth a third round pick?

 

And this is assuming that Denver or Jacksonville would agree to give up a third rounder in this kind of deal.

I would definitely do it.  I find it unlikely that Jacksonville would do it with the Colts.  They would look for another team.  Denver for sure.  The question is will Ballard do it?  I think he would but I would think he would have to move quickly on this.  We are not the only team with a lot of cap space. 

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19 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Take the JB option off the table. 

 

Just trading for Keenum, or Bortles (or both, maybe?), while absorbing their guaranteed money -- $7m for Keenum, $6.5m for Bortles -- and releasing them outright.

 

Is that $7m price tag worth a third round pick?

 

And this is assuming that Denver or Jacksonville would agree to give up a third rounder in this kind of deal.

In the NBA in most cases it's about what kind of relief you are giving to the team you are trading with. The same monetary relief in some cases is worth a second round pick, in others - 2 seconds, in others - a 1st. For example if a team needs to get rid off 10M of bad salary in order to sign a superstar and you are the only team that can give that relief, you have high leverage and can negotiate from position of strength.

 

I'm not super familiar with Jax or Broncos salary cap situations and what they would use that money for, but lets assume it's a middle of the road case. IMO if the 18M of cap relief for Osweiler was worth a second round pick, the 7M should be worth about a 4th rounder by itself. 

 

That's the problem. We haven't really seen those trades so we don't know how much capspace is valued in terms of draft capital. 

 

Teams should be making those calculations and they should have a table of values of some sort for general evaluation of those assets as resources. 

 

A player contract(with his assumed production) should be a resource.

Capspace should be a resource.

Draft picks should be resources. 

 

And they should all have values. 

 

So for example... lets say they need 7M to sign... a safety. Lets say Eric Ried didn't re-sign with the Panthers but the Broncos wanted to sign him(he got about 7M a year from the Panthers). 

 

What is Eric Reid on 3 year 22M contract worth? Would you give up a 3d for him? Or a 4th? Or lower? For different teams the answer will be different. I know it's cynical but that is probably the type of calculations that GMs do. 

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2 minutes ago, stitches said:

I'm not super familiar with Jax or Broncos salary cap situations and what they would use that money for, but lets assume it's a middle of the road case. IMO if the 18M of cap relief for Osweiler was worth a second round pick, the 7M should be worth about a 4th rounder by itself.

 

The Jags have a lot of work to do just to get under the cap by March 13. Right now, they're ~$6m over, and I assume they'll be releasing some of their highly paid guys, like Jackson, Dareus, etc. But they're in tough shape, and I assume they would like to shed Bortles' guaranteed money.

 

The Broncos are in better shape, but they have $40m committed to QBs, and I assume they want to draft someone also, so that might be $45m by the time they sign a draftee. I figure they want to shed Keenum's guaranteed money, as well.

 

How either team would value the cap relief in terms of draft capital is unknown. But the Jags have a late third from the Rams, for Fowler, so maybe if we send our sixth (or a player, like Ridgeway, who the staff apparently isn't fond of, 65 defensive snaps last year), that might make it work.

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2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

The Jags have a lot of work to do just to get under the cap by March 13. Right now, they're ~$6m over, and I assume they'll be releasing some of their highly paid guys, like Jackson, Dareus, etc. But they're in tough shape, and I assume they would like to shed Bortles' guaranteed money.

 

The Broncos are in better shape, but they have $40m committed to QBs, and I assume they want to draft someone also, so that might be $45m by the time they sign a draftee. I figure they want to shed Keenum's guaranteed money, as well.

 

How either team would value the cap relief in terms of draft capital is unknown. But the Jags have a late third from the Rams, for Fowler, so maybe if we send our sixth (or a player, like Ridgeway, who the staff apparently isn't fond of, 65 defensive snaps last year), that might make it work.

 

So what would the trade be? 

 

Bortles + late 3d for capspace? 

 

Or Bortles + late 3d for Brissett? Would you do the second one? 

 

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Just now, stitches said:

 

So what would the trade be? 

 

Bortles + late 3d for capspace? 

 

Or Bortles + late 3d for Brissett? Would you do the second one? 

 

 

I wouldn't do the second. I would do the first.

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2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I wouldn't do the second. I would do the first.

What if it was their 4th round pick + Bortles for capspace? What if it was the 5th rounder? Where would your limit be? The 4th should be close to the late 3d so their value is about the same so I assume you would still take it, so maybe the 5th one is the real question? 

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41 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Take the JB option off the table. 

 

Just trading for Keenum, or Bortles (or both, maybe?), while absorbing their guaranteed money -- $7m for Keenum, $6.5m for Bortles -- and releasing them outright.

 

Is that $7m price tag worth a third round pick?

 

And this is assuming that Denver or Jacksonville would agree to give up a third rounder in this kind of deal.

 

I have to say, I love this.

 

Firstly because it ties up with Ballard and his team seemingly being very solid on talent evaluation from an albeit small sample size.  Also, the draft can be hit or miss, but this gives us much needed "hit" opportunities when we have the cap space available.

 

Secondly, I think this might be one of the few years this is a real option for us.  This is due to 2019 being one of the rare years I can ever remember where there is not 1/3 of the league scrambling for a QB.  This means every Tom, Dick and Harry that can throw a spiral are not being chased and signed up for big money and so the option to take one of these guys and just cut them is there like it never has before.

 

@Superman, I assume your power as Moderator gives you a direct line to Mr Ballard?  If so, have a word!  haha

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2 minutes ago, stitches said:

What if it was their 4th round pick + Bortles for capspace? What if it was the 5th rounder? Where would your limit be? The 4th should be close to the late 3d so their value is about the same so I assume you would still take it, so maybe the 5th one is the real question? 

 

I don't know. I feel like I'm making a concession for the late third already. Then there are comp picks at the end of the third. I don't know if I'd settle for their 4th. I definitely wouldn't do it for their 5th.

 

And since we're talking about Bortles specifically, and we know no one wants him, but the Jags are stuck with his $6.5m guarantee and they're already over the 2019 cap, I feel like they don't have room to be stingy. 

 

I think a good objective is to stack top 100 picks. Once we move out of that range, I'm not too interested in burning $7m. So I guess that's my line, late third, or I'll pass.

 

Now if they want to give up Keelan Cole, then maybe we can just swap late picks.

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7 minutes ago, DaveA1102 said:

 

I have to say, I love this.

 

Firstly because it ties up with Ballard and his team seemingly being very solid on talent evaluation from an albeit small sample size.  Also, the draft can be hit or miss, but this gives us much needed "hit" opportunities when we have the cap space available.

 

Secondly, I think this might be one of the few years this is a real option for us.  This is due to 2019 being one of the rare years I can ever remember where there is not 1/3 of the league scrambling for a QB.  This means every Tom, Dick and Harry that can throw a spiral are not being chased and signed up for big money and so the option to take one of these guys and just cut them is there like it never has before.

 

@Superman, I assume your power as Moderator gives you a direct line to Mr Ballard?  If so, have a word!  haha

 

The bolded is a good point. Not only did Denver and Jacksonville make a mistake in giving their barely average QBs guaranteed money into Year 2, but there is no market for those guys, IMO. Especially at the ~$7m price tag.

 

Plus, we have a surplus of cap space, and I don't think Ballard intends to commit a bunch of guaranteed money beyond 2020, so we'll probably still be $40-50m under the 2019 cap and rolling money over again.

 

As for having a direct line to Ballard, yeah, I have his burner number and he takes my calls directly. He asked me to make this thread just to get the fans ready for what's going to happen. It will probably be right after the Combine. (Disclaimer: This is only a joke. JIC)

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Reporting @Superman for stealing my idea and making it better, that jerk :D
 

But yeah, I can totally see us "buying" a draft pick from the right team in the right situation

 

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25 minutes ago, TheMarine said:

Reporting @Superman for stealing my idea and making it better, that jerk :D
 

But yeah, I can totally see us "buying" a draft pick from the right team in the right situation

 

 

I hadn't seen your scenario, but it's the same basic premise. Great minds think alike...

 

But trading Brissett to the Jags is probably a non-starter, from Ballard's perspective. And I think the Jags probably have their sights set higher than Brissett as their starting QB (first round QB, or maybe Foles). And they'd probably treat moving Bortles and upgrading QB as separate tasks.

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Separate but related, latest rumor is the Dolphins are interested in Brissett. 

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I'm with the Supe on nothing less than a late 3rd for taking on Bortles. 4th round and beyond isn't worth letting Jax off the hook for their terrible cap management. Let them stew in their own juices.

And that late 3rd could become the key trade chip to moving up from the later 2nd round pick to grab a falling talent. Which I could definitely see happening. 

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2 minutes ago, Superman said:

Separate but related, latest rumor is the Dolphins are interested in Brissett. 

Both Flores and their new offensive coordinator were in New England when they drafted Brissett. There might be something there. 

 

Brissett + our second for Xavien Howard. Who says no? 

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I'd like to have Xavien Howard I will say that.

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10 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I don't get why it would ever be an issue. There are different resources for team building. Teams trade picks for players all the time, which is a swap of resources. What they don't typically do is sell cap space, which is basically what we'd be doing, for a pick. But it's still a swap of resources.

 

I don't remember there being any noise about the Texans/Browns trade a couple years ago. This kind of scenario doesn't really present itself that often, where you have teams tight against the cap with guaranteed money to unwanted QBs, and other teams flush with cap space.

 

Generally, the Broncos and Jags would just cut their guys, which isn't any better for player morale. As long as teams aren't tanking, I think it's fine. 

 

There was some noise about it because it was really the first time anyone tried to trade for cap space.  The funny thing was is I had sort of made a post about it before it happened suggesting that the Texans do just that.  Of course I thought they would use that cap space to sign Tony Romo.  So I was off on what they would do with the cap space.  

 

For the record I think we should consider it.  It's only a one year commitment to some dead money and it's not likely that is money that Ballard is going to spend anyways because he needs to have cap available for next offseason as a bunch of big name players on this team hit FA.  

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9 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

There was some noise about it because it was really the first time anyone tried to trade for cap space.  The funny thing was is I had sort of made a post about it before it happened suggesting that the Texans do just that.  Of course I thought they would use that cap space to sign Tony Romo.  So I was off on what they would do with the cap space.  

 

For the record I think we should consider it.  It's only a one year commitment to some dead money and it's not likely that is money that Ballard is going to spend anyways because he needs to have cap available for next offseason as a bunch of big name players on this team hit FA.  

 

I remember some media folks making noise about it. I don't remember the league doing or doing anything about it, and I'm not aware of any rule against it.

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33 minutes ago, stitches said:

Both Flores and their new offensive coordinator were in New England when they drafted Brissett. There might be something there. 

 

Brissett + our second for Xavien Howard. Who says no? 

 

I think that's a win/win.

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2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Take the JB option off the table. 

 

Just trading for Keenum, or Bortles (or both, maybe?), while absorbing their guaranteed money -- $7m for Keenum, $6.5m for Bortles -- and releasing them outright.

 

Is that $7m price tag worth a third round pick?

 

And this is assuming that Denver or Jacksonville would agree to give up a third rounder in this kind of deal.

I missed that part in your initial scenario.

 

But I'd say no, or maybe, or well it depends.  Right now, I don't think a 3rd round pick is worth $7 million.  Now during the draft if there is a player sitting there that the team wants and they are very certain that player will not last until the Colts pick, then it maybe worth $7 million but it would depend on the player.

 

The thing that may make it worth it is, even if the team plans on releasing him, they get the added benefit of, perhaps, upgrading the backup QB position or another player that they can trade when a QB gets injured in the preseason.

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22 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

I missed that part in your initial scenario.

 

But I'd say no, or maybe, or well it depends.  Right now, I don't think a 3rd round pick is worth $7 million.  Now during the draft if there is a player sitting there that the team wants and they are very certain that player will not last until the Colts pick, then it maybe worth $7 million but it would depend on the player.

 

The thing that may make it worth it is, even if the team plans on releasing him, they get the added benefit of, perhaps, upgrading the backup QB position or another player that they can trade when a QB gets injured in the preseason.

 

So how would you value a third round pick, monetarily?

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

I think that's a win/win.

I'm surprised you say that.  Giving up so much capital for a player at a position you feel isn't as highly valued in this D.  For our old 34 yes, but for our 43?

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6 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I'm surprised you say that.  Giving up so much capital for a player at a position you feel isn't as highly valued in this D.  For our old 34 yes, but for our 43?

 

I'd probably want a pick back in that scenario.


But getting a proven player, still one year on his rookie contract, who is scheme-diverse and one of the best in the league at his position, that works for me. And giving up our late second for him -- which is bolstered by our backup QB -- is an acceptable cost. 

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1 hour ago, stitches said:

Both Flores and their new offensive coordinator were in New England when they drafted Brissett. There might be something there. 

 

Brissett + our second for Xavien Howard. Who says no? 

 

If not Xavien Howard, I'd be OK with Robert Quinn too. :) 

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2 hours ago, Superman said:

But trading Brissett to the Jags is probably a non-starter, from Ballard's perspective.

Thus my huge, large, RED text: No way Ballard would do that in division. Idk that he'd do it with a team we're playing next year either.

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Might as well pull the trifecta:

 

Brissett to Miami for 2nd round pick or Howard

Take on Bortles for a 3rd and release him

Take on Keenan for a 4th and let him run the backup.

 

Additional 2nd/ or players, 3rd and 4th for swapping out backup QB's.

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It's an interesting question. If it's a 3rd round pick...the math says yes. 

 

But this is really a case where you trust your scouting department to identify a talent that will greatly outperform their rookie deal.

 

We are talking about making up $7M in value. However, I assume that Keenum or Bortles serves as backup QB so it's not all dead money. So let's put that value at $2M. So now you have $5M to make up.

 

According to Pro Football Logic, the average annual surplus value of a 3rd round pick ranges from $.75M - $1.25M, depending on where you draft. So let's just say it's a mid 3rd round pick (or an average of $1M/year).

 

That means that the average pick would make up $4M of that $5M in his rookie deal (provided they lasted that long). But there is also a chance he is worth much more. 


Also, there is a secondary value in that it would open up a Brissett trade and likely replace a more expensive roster spot (S for example).

 

If it's a 4th round pick...then probably no...because the average annual value won't make up the difference...and 4th round picks have a high bust rate.

 

Source: http://www.profootballlogic.com/articles/nfl-draft-pick-value/

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23 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Flacco has a higher trade value than JB.  That is just the way the NFL world works.

 

And the last time Denver went the route of "past his prime" 36 year old QB they went to 2 SBs in 4 years and won 1 of them.  The last time they went the route of a younger QB with more upside, they fired the coach and signed a 34 year old past his prime QB.

 

This board (not everyone on this board but a majority) vastly over-rate and over value Jacoby.  Jacoby has a 5-15 record has 13 TDs to 7 INTs and 7 times in 15 games he could not maintain a 4th quarter lead.

The truth sometimes is not pretty.

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35 minutes ago, w87r said:

Might as well pull the trifecta:

 

Brissett to Miami for 2nd round pick or Howard

Take on Bortles for a 3rd and release him

Take on Keenan for a 4th and let him run the backup.

 

Additional 2nd/ or players, 3rd and 4th for swapping out backup QB's.

 

OR Howard? Haha...I might toss in that late 2nd round pick if they were willing to part with Howard.

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22 hours ago, #12. said:

The Browns got a 2nd and 6th, gave up a 4th.

 

So, in this scenario, we spend 7 million to move from the 5th to the 3rd?  A high 3rd?  

 

I have no idea.  What are rounds in the draft worth in terms of dollars?  

 

My initial thought:  I'd rather just apply it to a free agent contract, but I don't know.

 

It's obviously directional information. But the way to think about it is in terms of production vs salary (cost)...which produces surplus value. In the 3rd round, on average, there is still a pretty good gap between production and cost. The 2nd round as well.

 

Here is the graph for production vs cost:

 

image.png.e40708fa3552f50540f1948b462e46da.png

 

Now here is how that equates to surplus value:

 

image.png.e65c0508a75e236890c2d68ae27a1f7c.png

 

As you can see, Day Two picks are basically gold...and I think Ballard understands this.

 

Also, the surplus value really starts to level out as you get to the 5th round...making those picks much less valuable. And 6th-7th round picks are actually negative value on average. 

 

So in theory, giving up that 5th round pick doesn't really hurt you from a value standpoint. It's the equivalent of a replacement level player. So you would just have a handful of UDFAs duke it out in camp for that roster spot.

 

But being able to turn a 5th round pick in a Day Two pick is very beneficial.

 

Is it worth spending $7M on Keenum or Bortles? Sure...if you are comfortable with one of those as the backup QB and you trust your scouting department. 

 

Source: ProFootballLogic

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14 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Yeah, I think he if received the right offer and had a suitable replacement identified, he'd be willing to trade him. But I think he's just fine holding him until he's a FA, and so am I.

 

I just don't see the suitable replacement being here without drafting them... which will be too late to trade, unless you are looking at next years draft picks. I don't see him signing a free agent backup when he can just hang on to Brissett. The value he places on him is obvious (and understandble after the Tolzien fiasco in year 1 for Ballard). 

 

Would love to see a move made, because I think that's how teams acquire value and an advantage in this league. Buying low and selling high for teams that value the draft is a huge advantage and we have seen it pay great dividends in last year's draft already. Will be interesting. Ballard is always negotiating. I really believe this guy is always communicating with other execs looking to improve. 

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1 hour ago, shastamasta said:

Is it worth spending $7M on Keenum or Bortles.  Sure...if you are comfortable with one of those as the backup QB and you trust your scouting department

 

If you keep one of them, it's much more than 7 million though.

 

I don't know.  Instead of buying picks, having an organizational plan to acquire comp picks is probably the better route.  If you are spending cash, I would rather spend it on someone proven.  

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3 minutes ago, #12. said:

 

If you keep one of them, it's much more than 7 million though.

 

I don't know.  Instead of buying picks, having an organizational plan to acquire comp picks is probably the better route.  If you are spending cash, I would rather spend it on someone proven.  

 

Oh that’s right. Forgot the gtd money only part of the base salary.

 

I take back what I said...you have to cut him for it to work.

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3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

So how would you value a third round pick, monetarily?

I really don't know, I've never thought of it in those terms.

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24 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

Oh that’s right. Forgot the gtd money only part of the base salary.

 

I take back what I said...you have to cut him for it to work.

 

Yeah, that's why you take the JB decision out of the equation. The plan isn't really to use either of those two guys as the backup QB.

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30 minutes ago, #12. said:

 

If you keep one of them, it's much more than 7 million though.

 

I don't know.  Instead of buying picks, having an organizational plan to acquire comp picks is probably the better route.  If you are spending cash, I would rather spend it on someone proven.  

 

Why not do all three?

 

Acquiring comp picks is usually a five year process. You have to draft players who become solid NFL players (something the Colts weren't doing for a while), then they have to get solid contracts from other teams, and then if you wind up on the minus side of the comp formula you might get an extra mid round pick or two the following year. 

 

(A shortcut to the five year process is signing decent FAs to short term deals and letting them walk, but you still have to wind up on the right side of the formula. And then you're basically letting decent to good players walk for the chance at a mid round pick in the next year's draft.)

 

I know Ballard wants to be a comp pick winner eventually. But this offseason, I believe he'll make enough FA signings that we don't wind up on the minus side of the formula for 2020 picks. And that's partly because we don't have enough good FAs of our own.

 

So in the meantime, since we have a ton of cap space, what's the downside to using a small portion of it to acquire an extra mid round pick this year?

 

The alternative is to sign a one year FA this year, then let him walk next year, to potentially get a comp pick in 2021 -- if you're on the right side of the formula.

 

I'm saying give me an extra third this year in exchange for $7m in cap space, add FAs who can contribute now, and continue to draft and manage the roster well in a way that will yield comp picks in future years. 

 

But we're probably not getting any comp picks in 2020.

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10 hours ago, stitches said:

Both Flores and their new offensive coordinator were in New England when they drafted Brissett. There might be something there. 

 

Brissett + our second for Xavien Howard. Who says no? 

 

Who says no?      I do ---- and LOUDLY!

 

Look.....    I'm not saying Howard isn't a good player,  he clearly is.    But he's a year away from free agency and he's a guy who's going to want to 8 figures.   $10 Mill-plus a year.     And I simply don't think Ballard wants to pay Howard --- or ANYONE playing corner for us --- that kind of money.   Part of the CB position being devalued in this defense is that Ballard can pay his two corners together what it may cost to pay Howard alone.

 

He's saving his money on the defensive side of the ball for the DL, for Leonard,  and for Hooker, if he turns into the player we all hope he does.

 

Put another way,  you're buying a soon to be expensive player but we only have a modest budget.  It's not that we can't afford Howard,  it's that we don't want to afford him.    I don't see the fit.

 

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On 2/13/2019 at 5:14 PM, DougDew said:

So we give up $7M of one year cap space when we have like $90M available, and we get a top 100 pick?

 

Could we do that about 5 more times?

 

Thank you!

 

Thank!    You!!!!

 

Thank FLIPPING You!!!

 

Best answer in this thread!      This one you nailed!

 

Where do we sign up to get more Top-100 picks for one year of cap money that we likely wouldn't be using anyway!       And I don't even care what we do with the player.    Keep him or cut him,  whatever works best.     I'd love all the Day 2 picks Ballard can trade for!  

 

Especially in this draft!         Yes, please!     More please!

 

Beautiful answer, Doug!       Just perfect!        :colts:

 

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