How to buy a draft pick

[richard pallo]

29 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Who says no?      I do ---- and LOUDLY!

 

Look.....    I'm not saying Howard isn't a good player,  he clearly is.    But he's a year away from free agency and he's a guy who's going to want to 8 figures.   $10 Mill-plus a year.     And I simply don't think Ballard wants to pay Howard --- or ANYONE playing corner for us --- that kind of money.   Part of the CB position being devalued in this defense is that Ballard can pay his two corners together what it may cost to pay Howard alone.

 

He's saving his money on the defensive side of the ball for the DL, for Leonard,  and for Hooker, if he turns into the player we all hope he does.

 

Put another way,  you're buying a soon to be expensive player but we only have a modest budget.  It's not that we can't afford Howard,  it's that we don't want to afford him.    I don't see the fit.

 

Modest budget?  We have the same budget as every other team in the league.  This is the year we should be spending some of it instead of saving it for three years down the road.  Heaven forbid we pay for a player or two and try to win a SB before TY and AC are gone and Luck is 34.  This is the new NFL.  If you have an elite franchise QB there is no time for patience.  You use all of your resources and go for the ring.  Irsay wants more than one SB with Luck and he does not yet have his 1st.  Time to get going I would say.  Sign me up for getting some difference makers now. 

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

Modest budget?  We have the same budget as every other team in the league.  This is the year we should be spending some of it instead of saving it for three years down the road.  Heaven forbid we pay for a player or two and try to win a SB before TY and AC are gone and Luck is 34.  This is the new NFL.  If you have an elite franchise QB there is no time for patience.  You use all of your resources and go for the ring.  Irsay wants more than one SB with Luck and he does not yet have his 1st.  Time to get going I would say.  Sign me up for getting some difference makers now. 

 

We have modest budget for certain postions.     We're not paying LeVeon Bell even though we can clearly afford it.     I don't see us paying a super expensive corner even though we can afford it.   We don't want a super expensive cornerback.     We want a good one. 

 

Ballard is saving his money for certain positions.    The ones he values more than others.

 

And since you brought up Irsay....   he clearly has signed on to the Ballard formula.    So,  I'm afraid that's not a winning argument for you.

 

[richard pallo]

6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

We have modest budget for certain postions.     We're not paying LeVeon Bell even though we can clearly afford it.     I don't see us paying a super expensive corner even though we can afford it.   We don't want a super expensive cornerback.     We want a good one. 

 

Ballard is saving his money for certain positions.    The ones he values more than others.

 

And since you brought up Irsay....   he clearly has signed on to the Ballard formula.    So,  I'm afraid that's not a winning argument for you.

 

All I know is Irsay wants multiple SB's.  His rebuild is over.  We made the playoffs and we're now one of the favorites.  Time to get cracking and use all of your resources.  That should mean acquiring some playmakers.  There is no time like the present they say. 

[aaron11]

7 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Ballard is saving his money for certain positions.    The ones he values more than others.

i dont understand what he is waiting on.  good young pass rushers and LTs dont really hit free agency anyway

 

it looks like he is saving it until he has to spend it, and that class of free agents will probably be no better than any other year. 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, aaron11 said:

i dont understand what he is waiting on. 

 

Maybe for free agency to begin.

[aaron11]

Just now, Superman said:

 

Maybe for free agency to begin.

that was in response to saving cap space for certain positions.  

[Superman]

10 hours ago, richard pallo said:

If you have an elite franchise QB there is no time for patience.

 

Team building requires patience. Point blank, bottom line. 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, aaron11 said:

that was in response to saving cap space for certain positions.  

 

If we're going with NCF's premise, Ballard isn't waiting to spend money on corners. His point was that Ballard won't pay a premium for corners because of the scheme we run.

[Superman]

11 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

But he's a year away from free agency and he's a guy who's going to want to 8 figures.   $10 Mill-plus a year.     And I simply don't think Ballard wants to pay Howard --- or ANYONE playing corner for us --- that kind of money.   Part of the CB position being devalued in this defense is that Ballard can pay his two corners together what it may cost to pay Howard alone.

 

I think it's possible that we're generally getting ahead of ourselves regarding what the staff wants at corner. We've all assumed from the beginning that the defense is going to be more of a Cover 2, Tampa style defense. But as the season progressed, they played more varied coverages.

 

Then Ballard said after the season that he and Eberflus have gotten more on the same page as time has gone on, and he understands better what kind of players the defense needs. He also said that while they will play a lot of zone, they know you have to play man in certain situations, including big third downs. Our defense was bad on third down, especially against the pass, and we committed too many penalties across the board, including in coverage. 

 

Add to that the fact that Ballard brought in people from Seattle, interviewed Kris Richard, and appears to favor long corners who make plays on the ball.

 

I think there's a possibility that the defense continues to evolve, and will wind up looking more like the Seahawks Cover 1 / Cover 3, than Dungy's Cover 2. And in that scheme, corners have more value.

 

Now that doesn't mean Ballard will want to spend $15-17m/year on a shutdown, man coverage corner. But I could see him identifying a scheme-diverse corner who makes plays on the ball, tackles well, and is still young, and spending some money on him. I think Howard fits that mold. 

 

The scenario floated by stitches is a hypothetical that will probably never come to fruition, but I can easily see why the Colts would bring Howard in.

[richard pallo]

13 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Team building requires patience. Point blank, bottom line. 

Agreed.  But we are a playoff team now and the team is young and ready to make some noise in the playoffs.  Just missing some key playmakers.  Shouldn't be hard to pick up some key pieces this off season. 

[throwing BBZ]

18 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think it's possible that we're generally getting ahead of ourselves regarding what the staff wants at corner. We've all assumed from the beginning that the defense is going to be more of a Cover 2, Tampa style defense. But as the season progressed, they played more varied coverages.

 

Then Ballard said after the season that he and Eberflus have gotten more on the same page as time has gone on, and he understands better what kind of players the defense needs. He also said that while they will play a lot of zone, they know you have to play man in certain situations, including big third downs. Our defense was bad on third down, especially against the pass, and we committed too many penalties across the board, including in coverage. 

 

Add to that the fact that Ballard brought in people from Seattle, interviewed Kris Richard, and appears to favor long corners who make plays on the ball.

 

I think there's a possibility that the defense continues to evolve, and will wind up looking more like the Seahawks Cover 1 / Cover 3, than Dungy's Cover 2. And in that scheme, corners have more value.

 

Now that doesn't mean Ballard will want to spend $15-17m/year on a shutdown, man coverage corner. But I could see him identifying a scheme-diverse corner who makes plays on the ball, tackles well, and is still young, and spending some money on him. I think Howard fits that mold. 

 

The scenario floated by stitches is a hypothetical that will probably never come to fruition, but I can easily see why the Colts would bring Howard in.

 

  I'll take the under that CB would give Belichick pick 59 for Gilmore in less than 3 seconds.
 Pick 34 in 6.
 Pick 26 15.   
  Eb would give a pinky for one of those.

[Superman]

11 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

  I'll take the under that CB would give Belichick pick 59 for Gilmore in less than 3 seconds.
 Pick 34 in 6.
 Pick 26 15.   
  Eb would give a pinky for one of those.

 

Probably right.

 

It's a little different because Gilmore's bonus money is paid, so trading for him would be three years, $33m, non guaranteed. Trading for Howard would put us in line to give him a Gilmore-like contract next offseason, bonus money included. I might prefer the Gilmore deal, but not for the first rounder.

[throwing BBZ]

7 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Probably right.

 

It's a little different because Gilmore's bonus money is paid, so trading for him would be three years, $33m, non guaranteed. Trading for Howard would put us in line to give him a Gilmore-like contract next offseason, bonus money included. I might prefer the Gilmore deal, but not for the first rounder.

 

  Oh, i am confident CB would be glad to pay Gilmore $14M.
 I did notice Howard last season and sure did like what i saw.
   CB would be sniffin around Miami's situation.
 

[esmort]

9 hours ago, richard pallo said:

Agreed.  But we are a playoff team now and the team is young and ready to make some noise in the playoffs.  Just missing some key playmakers.  Shouldn't be hard to pick up some key pieces this off season. 

 

I think this team is still at least one more season away from being where you seem to think it is already; after this season I think they may be ready to make some of the kinds of moves you want now. Although even then I don't think CB is going to go as big in FA as you would like.

[BluHorzhu]

This is a terrific question and a fascinating thread.  I don't have a full understanding of how compensatory picks work, but draft capital seems to be king now (especially in light of the rookie salary cap vs. out-of-control free agent contracts).  We didn't need the NFL to tell us the Colts had the best draft class of 2018.  I have reason to believe more good decisions will be made in FA and draft 2019, so this is indeed an exciting time.  

 

Based on Ballard's 2 grand slams and other fine picks last year, you bet I'd buy a 3rd rounder with a viable backup QB.  You can't make Keenum's arm stronger and I don't know if even Luck can make Bortles more serious about football, but just having one of them aboard means you could warm up to Brissett offers and jockey for position in April.  

 

I guess you'd have to take a look at your big board vs. team needs, run the numbers, and start wheeling and dealing accordingly.  This "game within the game" stuff is truly fascinating and probably one of the reasons I enjoy Fantasy Football so much.  Thanks for your post Superman.  Good stuff!

[Dark Superman]

Trade a first round draft pick for Trent Richardson.

[Superman]

On 2/15/2019 at 8:18 PM, BluHorzhu said:

I don't have a full understanding of how compensatory picks work, but draft capital seems to be king now (especially in light of the rookie salary cap vs. out-of-control free agent contracts). 

 

Not that you asked, but I figured a simple explanation of the comp pick system would be timely.

 

Read this for a more thorough explanation from OTC.

 

Compensatory picks compensate a team for losing more players in free agency than they acquire. Only players whose contracts expire and are signed by a new team before June 1 -- so not released players, not players who stay with their current team, and not lower tier players who sign over the summer -- count toward the comp pick system.

 

So if the Colts lose five unrestricted free agents to other teams, and sign four from other teams, they are potentially in line for one compensatory pick, in the next year's draft. Free agency of 2018 determines comp picks awarded in the 2019 draft.

 

Check out this link from OTC. Every year they track the qualifying players that change teams and publish their projection for comp picks, and they're always very close. The qualifying player the Colts lost in 2018 were Moncrief, Melvin, Mingo, Bostic, and Gore; the qualifying players they signed were Autry, Grant, and Slauson. They were -2, losing two more players than they acquired, so are technically in line for two comp picks. However, the league only awards 32 comp picks each year, and due to the value of Gore's contract, his projected comp pick slot is lower than #32, so we probably don't get a comp pick for losing him. They project we get a 4th round comp pick for losing Moncrief, and not signing anyone with a comparable contract value.

 

As it relates to this topic, keeping an eye on comp pick projections should definitely be a part of the Colts strategy for acquiring draft capital, but there are variables in the comp system that are out of the Colts control.

 

They can proactively add draft capital -- in theory -- by offering cap relief to other teams. I think it's a good idea, but I'm not holding my breath waiting for it to happen.

[Superman]

Something else on Keenum's contract -- he has offset language! So if the Broncos cut him and he signs somewhere else, his new contract offsets what the Broncos owe him.

 

They owe him $7m guaranteed in 2019; if they release him and he signs with a new team for one year, $3m, the Broncos only have to pay the difference of $4m.

 

So maybe that undermines any motivation they might have to move him for cap relief; from my perspective, it makes his contract more attractive in a cap/pick swap move.

 

Same with Bortles, reportedly. His $6.5m guaranteed in 2019 has offsets.