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Superman

How to buy a draft pick

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In 2016, the Texans signed Brock Osweiler to a contract that guaranteed him $37m over the first two years of the deal. After one year, the Texans decided Osweiler was not their QB, but they still owed him $16m guaranteed and would have had a cap penalty, so they didn't want to cut him. The Browns offered to take Osweiler and his bloated contract, along with a second round pick, and sent a 4th rounder to the Texans in exchange.

 

The Broncos owe Case Keenum $7m guaranteed in 2019. To cut him would hit the Broncos with a $10m cap penalty. They obviously want to find a trade partner to get rid of the $7m guaranteed, and they'd be left with a $3m cap penalty.

 

The Jaguars owe Blake Bortles $6.5m guaranteed in 2019. To cut him would hit the Jags with a $16.5m cap penalty. They would trade him to get rid of the guaranteed money, and they'd be left with a $10m cap penalty.

 

Would you trade for Keenum or Bortles, take a third rounder to absorb the guaranteed money, and send back a fifth or sixth in exchange? Or do both? You would basically be buying third rounders for ~$7m each.

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Oh, by the way, I'm not super interested in trading Brissett, but theoretically this Flacco trade sets his value at about a 4th rounder. If you could flip Brissett for a 4th and keep Keenum, who fits our offense, that might add another mid round pick. 

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I would make that trade or purchase to stick with your theme.  In the draft contest on this site I actually had the Colts drafting Luck in the 1st and Keenum in the 7th, the drafted Harnish in the 7th instead.

 

So I think Keenum would be a good back up QB to have on hand and then, like you stated, the Colts could get an extra draft pick out of it but absorbing the bloat on his contract.

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I think the Flacco trade actually increases Brissett's value to no lower than a 3rd.  Maybe even a 2nd.  Younger QB with more upside and cheap vs. a 34 yr. old past his prime and costly.   I think the trade says he's worth more than a 4th.   I would easily do the trade for Keenum and move Brissett. 

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Yes...Especially in the Case of Keenum...and trading of Brissett.  You net two mid-round picks and retain an experienced back-up QB that could win you some games at a cap # that is reasonably close to his market value.  

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8 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

Yes...Especially in the Case of Keenum...and trading of Brissett.  You net two mid-round picks and retain an experienced back-up QB that could win you some games at a cap # that is reasonably close to his market value.  

 

You however get only 1 expensive year out of Keenum and the picks become a wash. If we believe Brissett can win games if Luck is banged up for a game or two at a much lower price, I would not make the trade. 

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15 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I think the Flacco trade actually increases Brissett's value to no lower than a 3rd.  Maybe even a 2nd.  Younger QB with more upside and cheap vs. a 34 yr. old past his prime and costly.   I think the trade says he's worth more than a 4th.   I would easily do the trade for Keenum and move Brissett. 

Flacco has a higher trade value than JB.  That is just the way the NFL world works.

 

And the last time Denver went the route of "past his prime" 36 year old QB they went to 2 SBs in 4 years and won 1 of them.  The last time they went the route of a younger QB with more upside, they fired the coach and signed a 34 year old past his prime QB.

 

This board (not everyone on this board but a majority) vastly over-rate and over value Jacoby.  Jacoby has a 5-15 record has 13 TDs to 7 INTs and 7 times in 15 games he could not maintain a 4th quarter lead.

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1 minute ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Flacco has a higher trade value than JB.  That is just the way the NFL world works.

 

And the last time Denver went the route of "past his prime" 36 year old QB they went to 2 SBs in 4 years and won 1 of them.  The last time they went the route of a younger QB with more upside, they fired the coach and signed a 34 year old past his prime QB.

 

This board (not everyone on this board but a majority) vastly over-rate and over value Jacoby.  Jacoby has a 5-15 record has 13 TDs to 7 INTs and 7 times in 15 games he could not maintain a 4th quarter lead.

Any QB would have a hard time maintaining a 4th. qtr. lead with that team and I think the Colts front office values JB pretty highly as well.   Flacco is no Manning.  Apples to Oranges I would say.  

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35 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

You however get only 1 expensive year out of Keenum and the picks become a wash. If we believe Brissett can win games if Luck is banged up for a game or two at a much lower price, I would not make the trade. 

The picks are only a wash if the players picked become a wash.  As an alternative to letting Brissett walk and netting a comp pick in 2021, it's pretty attractive.

 

The value of Keenum vs. Brissett is a relevant piece of the equation that would require additional discussion, but the value of 2 extra picks in 2019 vs. 1 extra pick in 2021 is a significant delta.

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I'm thinking about this more and more, and I want to see us do it, if the deal could come together in a way that makes sense for both sides. It's not gonna happen, but I think it should.

 

As for Keenum vs Brissett, realistically speaking, keeping Keenum probably isn't a legitimate option unless he agrees to strike the extra $11m in salary. Not gonna pay him $18m to ride the bench.

 

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52 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Any QB would have a hard time maintaining a 4th. qtr. lead with that team and I think the Colts front office values JB pretty highly as well.   Flacco is no Manning.  Apples to Oranges I would say.  

Do you not see the irony in your first statement?  The team was good enough to have the lead in the 4th quarter but not good enough to keep it?

 

Flacco is no Manning but it's a very similar situation.  The biggest difference is Broncos signed Manning as a FA, they traded for Flacco.

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3 minutes ago, Superman said:

I'm thinking about this more and more, and I want to see us do it, if the deal could come together in a way that makes sense for both sides. It's not gonna happen, but I think it should.

 

As for Keenum vs Brissett, realistically speaking, keeping Keenum probably isn't a legitimate option unless he agrees to strike the extra $11m in salary. Not gonna pay him $18m to ride the bench.

 

Keenum will definitely be available.  The main question is, does some team view Keenum as a starter?

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1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

I think the Flacco trade actually increases Brissett's value to no lower than a 3rd.  Maybe even a 2nd.  Younger QB with more upside and cheap vs. a 34 yr. old past his prime and costly.   I think the trade says he's worth more than a 4th.   I would easily do the trade for Keenum and move Brissett. 

 

If Flacco had Brissett's contract, he probably brings back a second rounder instead of a fourth. 

 

I don't think we'll ever find out what Brissett's value is because Ballard doesn't want to trade him, but we are definitely not in agreement on what his trade value would be. 

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I think each fans answer depends on their priority ranking for watching their team. If Luck were to miss any time, I still want to watch my team win,.... period. 

 

Personally, I value the backup position quite high, and I consider JB's toughness,  closeness to the team and coaches, to add even more value. I would not want to see him traded for anything less than a 3rd, and that would depend on the team/conference/does it respect JB. 

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5 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Do you not see the irony in your first statement?  The team was good enough to have the lead in the 4th quarter but not good enough to keep it?

  

Flacco is no Manning but it's a very similar situation.  The biggest difference is Broncos signed Manning as a FA, they traded for Flacco.

 

I place most of the blame for those 4th quarter meltdowns on the coaching staff, but Brissett wasn't exactly making a lot of plays himself. 

 

The Flacco trade signals that the Broncos think they can do something with him at QB. I don't agree, but it's obvious that they think highly of him. 

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2 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

I think each fans answer depends on their priority ranking for watching their team. If Luck were to miss any time, I still want to watch my team win,.... period. 

 

Personally, I value the backup position quite high, and I consider JB's toughness,  closeness to the team and coaches, to add even more value. I would not want to see him traded for anything less than a 3rd, and that would depend on the team/conference/does it respect JB. 

 

Yeah, set that part aside. Assume we traded for Keenum or Bortles, then released them outright, so JB is still the backup for us. 

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3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I place most of the blame for those 4th quarter meltdowns on the coaching staff, but Brissett wasn't exactly making a lot of plays himself. 

 

The Flacco trade signals that the Broncos think they can do something with him at QB. I don't agree, but it's obvious that they think highly of him. 

There is definitely blame to go around and JB deserves his share of it, in the 4th quarter of most games he made a lot of bad throws and bad decisions.

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The Browns got a 2nd and 6th, gave up a 4th.

 

So, in this scenario, we spend 7 million to move from the 5th to the 3rd?  A high 3rd?  

 

I have no idea.  What are rounds in the draft worth in terms of dollars?  

 

My initial thought:  I'd rather just apply it to a free agent contract, but I don't know.

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6 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Yeah, set that part aside. Assume we traded for Keenum or Bortles, then released them outright, so JB is still the backup for us. 

Yes, I see your point. The depth of workings for picks is more complicated than I can fathom. Tell me, since the league is pretty even as far as talent, do you think there is more disparity when it comes to this very subject in regards to all teams?

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1 hour ago, ztboiler said:

The picks are only a wash if the players picked become a wash.  As an alternative to letting Brissett walk and netting a comp pick in 2021, it's pretty attractive.

 

The value of Keenum vs. Brissett is a relevant piece of the equation that would require additional discussion, but the value of 2 extra picks in 2019 vs. 1 extra pick in 2021 is a significant delta.

 

Thats why I said “if they felt Brissett could win as much as Keemun”, suggesting it’s a wash.

 

The 2 extra picks - if the first one starts at a fourth and the second one is a fifth, we get 2 picks, Keenum’s contract and Keemun for Brissett, right? I still wouldn’t do it straight up without Keemun agreeing to extending it as a 3 year deal with salary reduction.

 

Thats what any team acquiring Keenum would want to do first, word is Shurmur and Giants maybe interested if Keenum does such an extension, say 3 years at $5 mil. each. Then the picks and giving up Brissett would be worth it.

 

Brissett actually stood in there vs pressure better than Keenum who had a tendency to throw more picks under pressure, from the limited I saw of Keenum. I’d take Brissett’s sacks over Keenum’s INTs.

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1 hour ago, #12. said:

My initial thought:  I'd rather just apply it to a free agent contract, but I don't know.

 

I don't think Ballard will be spending all his cap space this offseason either way, but he will add some FAs. This would be a stab at getting some extra draft capital, adding another Day 2 pick for a team that is still trying to rebuild the roster through the draft.

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54 minutes ago, chad72 said:

Thats what any team acquiring Keenum would want to do first, word is Shurmur and Giants maybe interested if Keenum does such an extension, say 3 years at $5 mil. each. Then the picks and giving up Brissett would be worth it.

 

 

Would the Giants fully guarantee that deal? That's the only way it makes sense for Keenum. 

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1 hour ago, Four2itus said:

Tell me, since the league is pretty even as far as talent, do you think there is more disparity when it comes to this very subject in regards to all teams?

 

I don't know if I understand your question. Are you asking if different teams would apply different monetary values to draft picks? If so, I think the answer is yes, but it depends on where the team is in their roster building process. 

 

I don't think the Seahawks would take a $7m loss to add a third right now; I think they might have been willing to do so in 2013 when RW was still on a rookie contract.

 

In the Colts case, they have a surplus of cap space, even with the QB under contract. In my mind, it would be okay to trade $7m for an extra third right now.

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This doesn't sound like a deal I would consider ideal... Ideally, Keep it simple. Brissett and a 4th rounder (Comp Pick) for a high/mid 2nd rounder.  Done. Draft a back-up QB around Rounds 5-7 if needed.

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6 minutes ago, FalseStart said:

This doesn't sound like a deal I would consider ideal... Ideally, Keep it simple. Brissett and a 4th rounder (Comp Pick) for a high/mid 2nd rounder.  Done. Draft a back-up QB around Rounds 5-7 if needed.

 

You're kind of missing the point.

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4 hours ago, Superman said:

In 2016, the Texans signed Brock Osweiler to a contract that guaranteed him $37m over the first two years of the deal. After one year, the Texans decided Osweiler was not their QB, but they still owed him $16m guaranteed and would have had a cap penalty, so they didn't want to cut him. The Browns offered to take Osweiler and his bloated contract, along with a second round pick, and sent a 4th rounder to the Texans in exchange.

 

The Broncos owe Case Keenum $7m guaranteed in 2019. To cut him would hit the Broncos with a $10m cap penalty. They obviously want to find a trade partner to get rid of the $7m guaranteed, and they'd be left with a $3m cap penalty.

 

The Jaguars owe Blake Bortles $6.5m guaranteed in 2019. To cut him would hit the Jags with a $16.5m cap penalty. They would trade him to get rid of the guaranteed money, and they'd be left with a $10m cap penalty.

 

Would you trade for Keenum or Bortles, take a third rounder to absorb the guaranteed money, and send back a fifth or sixth in exchange? Or do both? You would basically be buying third rounders for ~$7m each.

Keenum ya Bortles no chance he sucks.

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9 minutes ago, jameszeigler834 said:

Keenum ya Bortles no chance he sucks.

 

We'd most likely be cutting either player.

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2 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Thats why I said “if they felt Brissett could win as much as Keemun”, suggesting it’s a wash.

 

The 2 extra picks - if the first one starts at a fourth and the second one is a fifth, we get 2 picks, Keenum’s contract and Keemun for Brissett, right? I still wouldn’t do it straight up without Keemun agreeing to extending it as a 3 year deal with salary reduction.

 

Thats what any team acquiring Keenum would want to do first, word is Shurmur and Giants maybe interested if Keenum does such an extension, say 3 years at $5 mil. each. Then the picks and giving up Brissett would be worth it.

 

Brissett actually stood in there vs pressure better than Keenum who had a tendency to throw more picks under pressure, from the limited I saw of Keenum. I’d take Brissett’s sacks over Keenum’s INTs.

I’m not sure we’re talking about the same thing.  I’m not expecting Brissett to be part of a trade with the Broncos...though he could be but that’s a separate transaction. 

 

I’m thinking the proposal is we get a 3rd by taking Keenum and his contract plus a 4th for Brissett from somebody or the Broncos if they want him.  Maybe we send a 5th or 6th to the Broncos too...all of which seems like a good deal for swapping out a viable backup for a viable backup.

 

The Keenum guaranteed money isn’t bad this year...and you always have the option to extend him if you can get a deal done.

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So we give up $7M of one year cap space when we have like $90M available, and we get a top 100 pick?

 

Could we do that about 5 more times?

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Brissett has a better QB ranking than Flacco is young and is not on a bloated contract . If anything this ups the market or Brissett . 

 

 

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2 hours ago, FalseStart said:

This doesn't sound like a deal I would consider ideal... Ideally, Keep it simple. Brissett and a 4th rounder (Comp Pick) for a high/mid 2nd rounder.  Done. Draft a back-up QB around Rounds 5-7 if needed.

You’re not getting a high 2nd round pick for Brissett. You’re missing the point of the topic.

 

I’d take the cap hit for Keenum to get that extra third. You then either deal out Keenum again or flip Brisset and get the 4th you’d be giving the Broncos. You’d essentially be paying $7 million for a high 3rd and possibly low 4th. That’s a steal.

 

However that doesn’t seem like Ballard’s MO. To trade for a player just to acquire a pick. I wish it was though

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9 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

You’re not getting a high 2nd round pick for Brissett. You’re missing the point of the topic.

 

I’d take the cap hit for Keenum to get that extra third. You then either deal out Keenum again or flip Brisset and get the 4th you’d be giving the Broncos. You’d essentially be paying $7 million for a high 3rd and possibly low 4th. That’s a steal.

 

However that doesn’t seem like Ballard’s MO. To trade for a player just to acquire a pick. I wish it was though

I guess we will find out if he will do it.  Maybe the idea hasn't even crossed his mind.  I hope somebody informs him of it before the Jets or some other team does it first. 

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3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I don't know if I understand your question. Are you asking if different teams would apply different monetary values to draft picks? If so, I think the answer is yes, but it depends on where the team is in their roster building process. 

 

Sorry about being vague. What I am asking is, since teams all have talent, and matchups and coaching seem to rule each game, are their teams that are far ahead of others in playing the FA, "Buy a draft pick", and get compensatory picks way better than other teams in your opinion?

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5 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I don't think we'll ever find out what Brissett's value is because Ballard doesn't want to trade him,

 

I think Ballard wants to trade him... he's just not willing to lose on the deal or make the giant mistake of not gaining a suitable replacement in FA or as part of the trade. I can see your scenario being entertained. 

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1 hour ago, Four2itus said:

Sorry about being vague. What I am asking is, since teams all have talent, and matchups and coaching seem to rule each game, are their teams that are far ahead of others in playing the FA, "Buy a draft pick", and get compensatory picks way better than other teams in your opinion?

 

The only team I can remember doing this is the Browns in 2017, when Sashi Brown and Paul DePodesta were still in charge, two Moneyball/analytics guys who were trying to stockpile draft picks. 

 

Other teams will swap picks, but not this kind of outright scenario. Not that I can remember. 

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Brissett is worth at least a 3rd. I am almost 100% certain that I remember last year there being numerous rumors that we were offered a 2nd Rounder for him but kept turning it down since we were not sure of Luck's health and valued Brissett too much.

 

Anyhow, if Tyrod Taylor (who is a bit more proven but in the ball park) is worth a high 3rd then I think JB is worth a 3rd as well.

 

If we then got something like a 3rd and Keenum for a 5th to absorb the contract, I would happily do that.

 

We would swap backup QBs for essentially (2) third round picks and only lose a 5th.

 

It would be a dream scenario. I doubt it ever manifests, but it doesn't hurt to dream.

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@Superman I agree with your plan, but thinking long term, I can see the league eventually stepping in if it starts to get out of hand. It could easily create an imbalance in team roster building. Also I can’t see it being good for player morale. 

 

Teams can essentially “sell” their draft picks, and use the money they save to pay one of their own or bring in someone better via FA. Add in compensatory picks (and the fact that they can be traded now), and there’s a lot of possibilities.

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2 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

 

I think Ballard wants to trade him... he's just not willing to lose on the deal or make the giant mistake of not gaining a suitable replacement in FA or as part of the trade. I can see your scenario being entertained. 

 

Yeah, I think he if received the right offer and had a suitable replacement identified, he'd be willing to trade him. But I think he's just fine holding him until he's a FA, and so am I.

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12 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

@Superman I agree with your plan, but thinking long term, I can see the league eventually stepping in if it starts to get out of hand. It could easily create an imbalance in team roster building. Also I can’t see it being good for player morale. 

 

Teams can essentially “sell” their draft picks, and use the money they save to pay one of their own or bring in someone better via FA. Add in compensatory picks (and the fact that they can be traded now), and there’s a lot of possibilities.

 

I don't get why it would ever be an issue. There are different resources for team building. Teams trade picks for players all the time, which is a swap of resources. What they don't typically do is sell cap space, which is basically what we'd be doing, for a pick. But it's still a swap of resources.

 

I don't remember there being any noise about the Texans/Browns trade a couple years ago. This kind of scenario doesn't really present itself that often, where you have teams tight against the cap with guaranteed money to unwanted QBs, and other teams flush with cap space.

 

Generally, the Broncos and Jags would just cut their guys, which isn't any better for player morale. As long as teams aren't tanking, I think it's fine. 

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