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mjsimans

JJ Arcega-Whiteside

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WR - Stanford - 6'3" 225 lbs

 

Had the opportunity to watch this guy a few times. I can see him being a very solid / reliable WR in the NFL and a potential draft steal. Thoughts?

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I have him mocked to us on with the Jets pick

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14 minutes ago, CR91 said:

I have him mocked to us on with the Jets pick

 

You think he will go that early in the second round, or the second round at all?

I know a lot will change in the next few months, with pro days and the combine, but he is barely in the top 10 WRs on most lists I have seen.

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1 minute ago, mjsimans said:

 

You think he will go that early in the second round, or the second round at all?

I know a lot will change in the next few months, with pro days and the combine, but he is barely in the top 10 WRs on most lists I have seen.

 

Ive seen mocks with him going to the pats in the first round. 

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For White, a lot is going to depend on his 40 time.  As long as it's below 4.6 he will be a late 1st/early 2nd.  If it's above 4.6 then he will probably drop to the 3rd round or later.

 

4.6 seems to be the threshold for receivers... slower than 4.6 and they are too slow to really compete against NFL DBs.

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3 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

For White, a lot is going to depend on his 40 time.  As long as it's below 4.6 he will be a late 1st/early 2nd.  If it's above 4.6 then he will probably drop to the 3rd round or later.

 

4.6 seems to be the threshold for receivers... slower than 4.6 and they are too slow to really compete against NFL DBs.

 

I can see it on the cusp. Like a 4.59. Guy is not a burner, but he can boxout

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2 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

I can see it on the cusp. Like a 4.59. Guy is not a burner, but he can boxout

4.59 I think he's a 1st/2nd rounder.  Personally, I hope he runs slower than 4.6 because then the Colts can wait until the late 2nd round or 3rd round to draft him... because I think he will be a whale of a receiver in the NFL.

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1 minute ago, Coffeedrinker said:

4.59 I think he's a 1st/2nd rounder.  Personally, I hope he runs slower than 4.6 because then the Colts can wait until the late 2nd round or 3rd round to draft him... because I think he will be a whale of a receiver in the NFL.

 

I have a bad feeling the pats would take him at the end of the first round

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3 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

I have a bad feeling the pats would take him at the end of the first round

That is the nature of the draft. 

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I've seen games where he was flat-out dominant and unplayable but he also seems slow, almost like a TE playing wideout sometimes. And many times it did seem like the corners just didn't have any idea how to play him in college where the NFL isn't going to lie down like that. 

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I enjoyed watching his highlights. Those hand catches. Use of his hands against DB's. He is already pro ready there. Nice. Reminds me of Mike Evans.
Andrew could quickly like this guy.

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One of my favorites in this draft. I need to see his testing but it's very likely that he will be a second round value on my board, unless he's a total snail in his tests. 

 

Uses his body really well to shield off defenders and make contested catches. He's also very crafty when stacking the defender and not allowing him to get back into plays once he beats him. His high number of explosive plays and extremely high catch rate on deep passes(no. 1 in college football) suggests that he probably does have some speed and that he has exceptional hands and tracking ability. 

 

He's not the most shifty player and he won't gain a ton of YAC, but I definitely like him.  

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I have a feeling this guy will be there at our No.58 pick. He and Hakeem Butler are very much the type of guys I think Ballard will go after. Hakeem Butler most likely will go earlier than him because of being faster with his long strides, so in all likelihood I can see him being there for our later second round pick mainly because I feel his speed may not be up to snuff with the others.

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2 hours ago, mjsimans said:

WR - Stanford - 6'3" 225 lbs

 

Had the opportunity to watch this guy a few times. I can see him being a very solid / reliable WR in the NFL and a potential draft steal. Thoughts?

 

I'm a Stanford fan for nearly 50 years.   And I love JJAW.   And I'd love for the Colts to draft him.

 

But NOT at pick 34.    I don't think he's worth it.     I'm hopeful at pick 58 or maybe even 89.   It all depends on how he tests at the Combine.     I fear he won't test all that well.     And that will soften his ranking.    But he's a very good receiver with outstanding hands.    He's one of the best Red Zone threats I've ever seen.   He can high-point a throw like few others.   And his work with his body, his ability to screen out defensive backs so only he can make a play on the ball is uncanny.    

 

I'm just not as sure how that will play against NFL caliber DB's vs. college.

 

I want at least two premium defensive picks with 26 and 34.    Preferably DL's.

 

I don't want to spend that high a pick on a WR,  not for JJ, or anyone else frankly.     Defense if the theme of this draft.    Defense is what we take.      And if means defense on picks 26, 34 and even 58,  then so be it.    I'll wait to pick 89.     And if we go defense there too,  then I'll wait until the 4th round.

 

Defense is the key!

 

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His 40 time is gonna kill his draft stock, I can't imagine it being sub-4.6...the guy wins on 50/50 stuff. He's not known for great separation, and separating from collegiate DB's is far easier than NFL DB's, he could struggle. I wouldn't feel comfortable using a (either) 2nd on him. 

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I havnt watched much of whiteside, but I first glance he appears to be another big receiver who lack quickness and fails to get separation.

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Put 20 lbs on him and he’ll  be a fine TE. Which is what he may end up playing in the NFL. I suspect his 40 time will be in the 4.7 range which will drop his stock. If the Colts draft him I doubt it will be before their third pick. 

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48 minutes ago, Hoose said:

Put 20 lbs on him and he’ll  be a fine TE. Which is what he may end up playing in the NFL. I suspect his 40 time will be in the 4.7 range which will drop his stock. If the Colts draft him I doubt it will be before their third pick. 

I'd be shocked if he's in the 4.7s. He's not blazing fast but he should do OK. You don't get his type of explosive play and downfield catch% by running this slow. At least I don't thinks so... I guess we will see in several weeks time. 

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On 2/8/2019 at 1:01 PM, stitches said:

One of my favorites in this draft. I need to see his testing but it's very likely that he will be a second round value on my board, unless he's a total snail in his tests. 

 

Uses his body really well to shield off defenders and make contested catches. He's also very crafty when stacking the defender and not allowing him to get back into plays once he beats him. His high number of explosive plays and extremely high catch rate on deep passes(no. 1 in college football) suggests that he probably does have some speed and that he has exceptional hands and tracking ability. 

 

He's not the most shifty player and he won't gain a ton of YAC, but I definitely like him.  

 

I see special traits when watching this guy.
Reggie was slowing down but Andrew "over targeted" him. Why! Great hands, terrific at high pointing, and at getting open in zones. IMO, this kid could fit Andrew and Reich like a Blue glove. Like between a Mike Evans and Trey Burton. 
 With all these available picks, i see CB moving up from picks 59 or 90 to get his guy.
 JJ could be that target. He loves them 2nd rd picks.

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1 hour ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

I see special traits when watching this guy.
Reggie was slowing down but Andrew "over targeted" him. Why! Great hands, terrific at high pointing, and at getting open in zones. IMO, this kid could fit Andrew and Reich like a Blue glove. Like between a Mike Evans and Trey Burton. 
 With all these available picks, i see CB moving up from picks 59 or 90 to get his guy.
 JJ could be that target. He loves them 2nd rd picks.

Thats some TALL COTTON for comparison

 

Reggie is a top 20 of all time WRs  Maybe top 15.

(From a pure career yardage level, he is in top 10)

 

Reggie wasn't really a high point guy at all. I don't remember him, out jumping anyone.  He ran a fantastic route tree, and Andrew and he, had a great chemistry (Just like he did with Peyton)

 

He had enough speed, not blazing, but he could start and stop on a dime.

 

He also had a nice first step, off the line

 

Part of the combine process is having a WR run all types of routes, and see HOW the cuts look, and what type of acceleration, they show.

 

The 40 time IS part of the process, but not all.  

 

If a player cant get separation from college CBs....... they will have enormous problems in the pros.  I am not saying that is JJ isnt going to be a solid pro.......  I need to watch some more tape.

 

BUT.......

 

What I have seen so far from a limited amount of tape, is a guy that has CB or S draped all over him, and he is strong enough, and can jump high enough to pull the ball away from the college player.

 

That MAY not be enough in the pros

 

I see a guy that is a 3rd or 4th round prospect

 

If we go defense all in on picks 1-4, and JJ is there in round four.....  I am liking the pick........  

 

I DO think there will be a very good reciever left for the 2nd, 2nd round pick, or the 3rd round pick.........  

 

Watch the highlight tape on Butler, Riley Ridley, Parris Cambell, or Lil Jordan Humphreys

 

You will see separation as well as "high pointing" that people like in the end zone.....  (less highpoint on Cambell)

 

I BELIEVE...... that these 4 will be available at our 2nd pick in round 2, and MAYBE 1-2 still available in round 3.

 

I see them as better long term candidates to be a contributing factor than JJ.

 

 

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4 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

Thats some TALL COTTON for comparison

 

Reggie is a top 20 of all time WRs  Maybe top 15.

(From a pure career yardage level, he is in top 10)

 

Reggie wasn't really a high point guy at all. I don't remember him, out jumping anyone.  He ran a fantastic route tree, and Andrew and he, had a great chemistry (Just like he did with Peyton)

 

He had enough speed, not blazing, but he could start and stop on a dime.

 

He also had a nice first step, off the line

 

Part of the combine process is having a WR run all types of routes, and see HOW the cuts look, and what type of acceleration, they show.

 

The 40 time IS part of the process, but not all.  

 

If a player cant get separation from college CBs....... they will have enormous problems in the pros.  I am not saying that is JJ isnt going to be a solid pro.......  I need to watch some more tape.

 

BUT.......

 

What I have seen so far from a limited amount of tape, is a guy that has CB or S draped all over him, and he is strong enough, and can jump high enough to pull the ball away from the college player.

 

That MAY not be enough in the pros

 

I see a guy that is a 3rd or 4th round prospect

 

If we go defense all in on picks 1-4, and JJ is there in round four.....  I am liking the pick........  

 

I DO think there will be a very good reciever left for the 2nd, 2nd round pick, or the 3rd round pick.........  

 

Watch the highlight tape on Butler, Riley Ridley, Parris Cambell, or Lil Jordan Humphreys

 

You will see separation as well as "high pointing" that people like in the end zone.....  (less highpoint on Cambell)

 

I BELIEVE...... that these 4 will be available at our 2nd pick in round 2, and MAYBE 1-2 still available in round 3.

 

I see them as better long term candidates to be a contributing factor than JJ.

 

 

 

Gotta laugh at Reggie not high pointing. Pretty much everything Andrew threw his 1st 3 years was high, so yes, Reggie made Andrew look much better than he was by catching all those bad throws that others couldn't get. 
 So to make it clear as i possibly can, using Reggie  in the memo was ONLY in regard to Andrew throwing HIGHBALLS. 
 Tall cotton huh. Trey Burton ran a 4.62 and is a respectable part of Nagy's offense.
 And having the hand's, ball tracking-high point skills that look like Evans to me is very interesting. It doesn't make him Evans. Got it?
 Sorry, but i watched a lot of the playoffs and there is tons of tight man coverage when you play at that level. This kid creates a lot of subtle contact in man coverage going downfield and appears to be a master of creating space as the ball is coming in. Receivers that can do that and maintain their body control can be beasts Anywhere on the field and in the red zone.
And he will be just fine attacking zones. 
 And please, what round you think he, or any of these guys is meant for rates as junk mail. 
 Maybe after the Grown Ups have poked and prodded on everyone we can have a REAL couch GM idea where they have a shot to go.
 As to the players you mentioned i have watched them some and they are good prospects. But i have no real idea which, if any of these will be on Ballard's draft board. He is rather finicky. 
 I just can't wait for more pre-combine couch mock's. Kill's folk's off season time i guess.
  50 or so years watching the NFL has me putting Reg outside the top 20 all-time. There have been plenty of guys with his skill set.
 Manning couldn't win MVP's if he handed the ball off more like we needed him to.

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On 2/8/2019 at 2:35 PM, Boiler_Colt said:

Gotta be able to separate in the NFL. I don't see that from JJ.

Yes. With either pure speed, quickness, or savvy route running. I haven’t seen any of the 3 from JJAW. I think he goes round 4.

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He's a talent. I just don't see the speed or quickness you want in a wideout.....at least not one upon whom you spend a high draft pick.  As I said earlier, he could end up being a terrific receiving TE. But....because the Colts likely won't view that position as a priority, I doubt they take JJAW unless he really falls in the draft. Which I could see, since he's one of those players who will rise or fall based upon his combine performance. And since I suspect he'll test much slower than you'd think, he might still be around in Day 3. 

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16 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

Gotta laugh at Reggie not high pointing. Pretty much everything Andrew threw his 1st 3 years was high, so yes, Reggie made Andrew look much better than he was by catching all those bad throws that others couldn't get. 
 So to make it clear as i possibly can, using Reggie  in the memo was ONLY in regard to Andrew throwing HIGHBALLS. 
 Tall cotton huh. Trey Burton ran a 4.62 and is a respectable part of Nagy's offense.
 And having the hand's, ball tracking-high point skills that look like Evans to me is very interesting. It doesn't make him Evans. Got it?
 Sorry, but i watched a lot of the playoffs and there is tons of tight man coverage when you play at that level. This kid creates a lot of subtle contact in man coverage going downfield and appears to be a master of creating space as the ball is coming in. Receivers that can do that and maintain their body control can be beasts Anywhere on the field and in the red zone.
And he will be just fine attacking zones. 
 And please, what round you think he, or any of these guys is meant for rates as junk mail. 
 Maybe after the Grown Ups have poked and prodded on everyone we can have a REAL couch GM idea where they have a shot to go.
 As to the players you mentioned i have watched them some and they are good prospects. But i have no real idea which, if any of these will be on Ballard's draft board. He is rather finicky. 
 I just can't wait for more pre-combine couch mock's. Kill's folk's off season time i guess.
  50 or so years watching the NFL has me putting Reg outside the top 20 all-time. There have been plenty of guys with his skill set.
 Manning couldn't win MVP's if he handed the ball off more like we needed him to.

I guess you are an old dude too........

 

I've been following the Colts since I was 8 or so, when John U was nearing his end

 

I should have separated my responses. I was replying to your Reggie Wayne comparison, 

the rest of my response was to this thread

 

When I think of high pointing, I think of a receiver that constantly out jumps the DB to catch  the ball

 

There are recievers that feature this type of catch. This is their "signature" move.

 

JJ is one of them....... IMHO,  this wasnt Reggie.

 

I want a difference maker WR, one that runs the full route tree...... has some separation speed, one that has very reliable hands......... AND... One that can go get the 50/50 ball.

 

DBs in the NFL are 2-3 steps ahead from DBs in college........  The AVERAGE DBs are very good against 50/50 balls

 

 

Either way..... peace and love

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

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His end zone TD against Oregon shows how he gets separation, it's by quick beats off the line. He's not a burner and won't win with speed in the NFL, but he'll give his QB areas to target where he can get separation once he adjusts to the ball. 

 

I think he'll be limited as a prospect, whether he runs well or not. His play speed is telling, even if he shows up at 215 and runs a 4.55, he's speed deficient. He still can have a role in an NFL offense, though. He's technical and refined with body position and control, hand usage, footwork, etc. 

 

I like him, but I'm not over the moon about him. Like NCF, I think he's a third round prospect, but he might go higher due to production and good testing. 

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12 minutes ago, Superman said:

His end zone TD against Oregon shows how he gets separation, it's by quick beats off the line. He's not a burner and won't win with speed in the NFL, but he'll give his QB areas to target where he can get separation once he adjusts to the ball. 

 

I think he'll be limited as a prospect, whether he runs well or not. His play speed is telling, even if he shows up at 215 and runs a 4.55, he's speed deficient. He still can have a role in an NFL offense, though. He's technical and refined with body position and control, hand usage, footwork, etc. 

 

I like him, but I'm not over the moon about him. Like NCF, I think he's a third round prospect, but he might go higher due to production and good testing. 

 

I agree with your assessment. The end of round 2 is where I have him pegged to go.

 

Alshon Jeffrey ran a 4.48 in his 40 and was picked at No.45. Anquan Boldin disappointed with a 4.70 but was picked at No.54. Both have had good careers and with the propensity of Luck to throw a tad high at times, a guy that can go up and get it is not a bad thing to invest in. 

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8 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

I agree with your assessment. The end of round 2 is where I have him pegged to go.

 

Alshon Jeffrey ran a 4.48 in his 40 and was picked at No.45. Anquan Boldin disappointed with a 4.70 but was picked at No.54. Both have had good careers and with the propensity of Luck to throw a tad high at times, a guy that can go up and get it is not a bad thing to invest in. 

 

Both of those guys had suddenness and explosiveness to their game that I don't think JJAW has. They also have a tenacious that kind of makes up for their lack of elite speed, and I'm not sure I see that from JJAW either.

 

Even Kelvin Benjamin had some burst, and he was heavier than all of them, and ran a 4.61. He's just lazy, apparently. 

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12 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Both of those guys had suddenness and explosiveness to their game that I don't think JJAW has. They also have a tenacious that kind of makes up for their lack of elite speed, and I'm not sure I see that from JJAW either.

 

Even Kelvin Benjamin had some burst, and he was heavier than all of them, and ran a 4.61. He's just lazy, apparently. 

 

He wins versus contact most of the time at the line of scrimmage and tracks the ball real well. He has had defenders draped all over him and made several catches in the process, TDs as well. I think he is more tenacious than you give him credit for.

 

When they let contact go from the Chiefs' DBs in the divisional round game and it was hard to separate, we could have used a guy like him to be honest, to move the chains. He is a hands catcher with very good body control and good catch radius. Plus, he blocks real well too. 

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2 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

He wins versus contact most of the time at the line of scrimmage and tracks the ball real well. He has had defenders draped all over him and made several catches in the process, TDs as well. I think he is more tenacious than you give him credit for.

 

When they let contact go from the Chiefs' DBs in the divisional round game and it was hard to separate, we could have used a guy like him to be honest, to move the chains.

 

He can handle contact at the line and at the point of attack just fine, and he definitely wins when the ball is in the air. But when I talk about the tenacity of guys like Alshon or Anquan, I'm talking about that force that you can just feel -- like Ballard talked about with Dez Bryant, for instance, another physically imposing WR. Just a physical force, they punish DBs physically, especially at the point of attack, and they do the same after the catch. 

 

I don't see that from JJAW. He'll box you out and outreach you for the ball, but that's against PAC 12 and Big 10 DBs, who don't play with any tenacity themselves. He's 4-5 inches taller and 40 pounds heavier than most of them. He cruises against the competition, and he won't be able to do that in the NFL. 

 

I've personally moved off of the attraction to big, physical receivers, just because they're big and physical. I like JJAW's technical work, including his body control, more than his size and catch radius. There are too many H/W/S receivers (and H/W but speed deficient receivers) who don't produce in the NFL because they don't have the skill needed. I also think those guys have been overdrafted historically (Sammy Watkins, for instance). Not saying I don't want big receivers, just saying that I still want them to be technically proficient, because that's way more important, to me. 

 

JJAW is technically proficient, but I don't know if he has enough speed / quickness / explosiveness / suddenness to produce in the NFL, and I don't know if he has that glass eater tenacity that I think those other guys had.

 

And to be honest, I don't think his play speed matches that of the others. At times he pops, but generally, not so much. That's why I'm kind of not interested in his 40 time. If he runs a 4.9 or something crazy, it will be obvious, but if he runs a great 40, I won't put a whole lot of stock in it.

 

As for what we needed against the Chiefs, I think the play calling was the biggest issue. I also don't think very much of our receiver corps to begin with, then TY is at 50%, and I hated the play calling, so it's not the game I would use to judge what kind of receivers we need. We just need better receivers.

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@Superman Have you seen Hakeem Butler yet? I would be interested to hear your opinion on him. He's physically imposing in the exact way you describe, not just at the catch point, but after the catch too... and IMO he's faster than most of those big H/W receivers. 

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2 minutes ago, stitches said:

@Superman Have you seen Hakeem Butler yet? I would be interested to hear your opinion on him. He's physically imposing in the exact way you describe, not just at the catch point, but after the catch too... and IMO he's faster than most of those big H/W receivers. 

 

I was thinking the same thing. If we want Hakeem Butler, it has to be the first of our second round picks. He is far more imposing than JJAW. 

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Give me route running, hands, and shiftiness (or power) YAC.  I don't care about other attributes this draft if a college WR doesn't have those.  Everything else is a bonus.

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4 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

I was thinking the same thing. If we want Hakeem Butler, it has to be the first of our second round picks. He is far more imposing than JJAW. 

I think he will be WR1 or WR2 for me when it's said and done. I really like Butler and I agree that ultimately he's probably going to go in R1 or R2, unless he tests poorly at the combine, but I don't expect that. If he's there for our #34 pick, I'd be more than happy to get him. 

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2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Give me route running, hands, and shiftiness (or power) YAC.  I don't care about other attributes this draft if a college WR doesn't have those.  Everything else is a bonus.

 

If you want that, Deebo Samuel is your guy. 

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3 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

If you want that, Deebo Samuel is your guy. 

I think the way that Edleman couldn't be covered in a short space during the SB just put Deebo in round 1.  JMO.

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13 minutes ago, stitches said:

@Superman Have you seen Hakeem Butler yet? I would be interested to hear your opinion on him. He's physically imposing in the exact way you describe, not just at the catch point, but after the catch too... and IMO he's faster than most of those big H/W receivers. 

 

I did watch Butler, but not in depth. He definitely jumps off the screen, and at 6'6" he's basically playing against his little brothers. He's physical and explosive, breaks tackles, beats press... I'm not overly impressed by how he comes out of his breaks, and I think his change of direction and agility is limited, but that's normal at his height. 

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4 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think the way that Edleman couldn't be covered in a short space during the SB just put Deebo in round 1.  JMO.

 

The other guy that comes close is Andy Isabella, who is projected more as a slot guy at the next level. However, I sometimes wonder how much the outside WR is going to be as important in our system with Reich moving them all over the field and using multiple TEs.  I felt, a possession guy like Inman, a reliable one at that, fit in just fine when Ryan Grant couldn't produce. So, how badly do we truly need that outside guy if we can just draft one that gets open consistently, even if he is in the slot??? It does make me wonder.

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    • What you are describing is a loss of faith, not blind faith. Being positive does bring faith. Till it becomes negative then the faith dwindles till it's gone. For me I don't give a lot of attention to who is drafted till they are drafted. I don't have the resources and a whole scouting team (and coaches) to help me make the choice. The largest part of what most see is what the media shows. That means schools that draw the most attention. Good GMs pay little attention to what the media has to say. (or what the fans think to be honest).
    • I actually thought this thread would be about having the 32nd pick in the first round of the NFL draft. That would ensure that the player would have a 5th year option for us as opposed to the 34th pick or later picks, where we only have 4 year contracts.
    • This is a terrific question and a fascinating thread.  I don't have a full understanding of how compensatory picks work, but draft capital seems to be king now (especially in light of the rookie salary cap vs. out-of-control free agent contracts).  We didn't need the NFL to tell us the Colts had the best draft class of 2018.  I have reason to believe more good decisions will be made in FA and draft 2019, so this is indeed an exciting time.     Based on Ballard's 2 grand slams and other fine picks last year, you bet I'd buy a 3rd rounder with a viable backup QB.  You can't make Keenum's arm stronger and I don't know if even Luck can make Bortles more serious about football, but just having one of them aboard means you could warm up to Brissett offers and jockey for position in April.     I guess you'd have to take a look at your big board vs. team needs, run the numbers, and start wheeling and dealing accordingly.  This "game within the game" stuff is truly fascinating and probably one of the reasons I enjoy Fantasy Football so much.  Thanks for your post Superman.  Good stuff!
    • Maybe Jachai Polite will fall or even Devin White. There's some decent options at the #13 spot. Not sure if Montez Sweat is worth the #13 pick, but he might be with the combine and pro day coming up.
    • He brought in so many talent potential lads into the Shoe last year. These no-name guys are quickly becoming recognizable faces.    Gotta say that last years draft was amped with talent for many levels and positions. Some potentially playoff caliber quarterbacks too.   This year’s draft will be interesting as it could pose a challenge for most teams outside of the top 10. 
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