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Some of the guys on here that are a little more knowledgeable about trading picks, their value, and all of that stuff...what are the Colts opportunities if they decide to trade up? I mean, could they trade all the way up and make a run at a Quinnen Williams or Josh Allen? If so, what would it take? I know I've read several times on here that they could most likely trade into the teens (if the right guy fell) by sending their 2nd (the Jets, I think)...so, was curious what the possibilities are?

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Theoretically if the Colts were to package their two second rounders, they could get up to the 7th position, if we look strictly at the points assigned to draft picks, but that is rarely the case, especially in the top ten. You may be able to package the 34th pick, our 4th and 5th to move up, but it just depends on what is there at seven.

 

Now that is looking at it from a draft ammo, which we have a lot of. Two seconds and two fourths place us in a nice spot if we want to move up. I don't see that happening until middle first (doubtful), or somewhere in the second. In fact I would not be surprised to see us trade down.

 

The reason, Ballard treasures draft picks. Look what he has done with the 2/3 seconds from last year. Ballard is looking to add to the DL, and the sweet spot for the DL is the second round once the top 5 edge players are gone, and likely will be gone by the top 12. Additionally, rounds 2-4 are the sweet spot for WR depth.

 

I would love to see him go dline or cornerback early, and in the second snag Hakeem Butler, Deebo Samuel or J.J. Arcega Whitside. Kelvin Harmon is my personal pick for WR, but I think he goes top 20, and we won't go WR in first. 

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5 hours ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

Some of the guys on here that are a little more knowledgeable about trading picks, their value, and all of that stuff...what are the Colts opportunities if they decide to trade up? I mean, could they trade all the way up and make a run at a Quinnen Williams or Josh Allen? If so, what would it take? I know I've read several times on here that they could most likely trade into the teens (if the right guy fell) by sending their 2nd (the Jets, I think)...so, was curious what the possibilities are?

 

I think the answer lies in how much Ballard values draft picks.   To get the guys you suggest, it will take a literal haul of picks to make such a trade.  Such as a # 1 and both # 2s this year and then something along those lines again in 2020.  Ballard won't do that & I have a hard time seeing the trading team accepting it on their end, given where the Colts will be picking.

 

A trade down is far more likely in my mind.

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How about trading a high pick for a player?  I just read where Rich Cimini , an ESPN reporter for the Jets, is reporting the Jets view DT. Leonard Williams as a trade candidate due to his high upcoming 5th. yr option of 14.2m and the likelihood of losing him to FA the following year.  Removing his salary would allow them to easier pursue AB or Bell.  He stated a new team acquiring Williams would have to reach an extension with him before the trade though.  The Colts would have the capacity to do it.  Trade up, trade back or trade for a player will all be on the table.  Ballard will have a lot of opportunities to evaluate as the off season unfolds.  It's going to be an interesting one for sure.  

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There’s so much variability it trade compensation over different years. In 2013 the 49ers moved up from 31 to 18 with the Cowboys for a mere 3rd (74). If that kind of value is available you strongly consider it.  Unlikely this year...2013 was historically weak and probably fueled the lopsided compensation.

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If they traded down and passed on Chubb for the additional picks, it's hard to believe they would turn around and give the picks back.  Only in the case of Khalil Mack would I have done that - for a proven commodity.

 

I could definitely see them trading down again, though, if the opportunity presents itself.

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I can't see Ballard ever trading a future #1 which is likely what it would take to acquire the guys mentioned above. Only team I can remember going from the late 20's into the top 7 was Atlanta for Julio Jones and they paid a ton for it.

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8 hours ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

Some of the guys on here that are a little more knowledgeable about trading picks, their value, and all of that stuff...what are the Colts opportunities if they decide to trade up? I mean, could they trade all the way up and make a run at a Quinnen Williams or Josh Allen? If so, what would it take? I know I've read several times on here that they could most likely trade into the teens (if the right guy fell) by sending their 2nd (the Jets, I think)...so, was curious what the possibilities are?

Most of us on here use the pick value chart that is said to be the approximate blueprint for trading picks. Of course there are other variables to consider (depends who is on the board and what both GMs feel is worth it to get/not get the players on the top of their list). 

 

Chart can be found here (with our picks and their values highlighted):

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=Ind

 

Also its worth noting that when calculating future picks into the equation, their point value is usually counted as mid round pick of the round after it. So our first rounder next yr would have the same point value as the 48th pick in this draft (420 points). 

 

Hope that helps you figure out what kind of deal it could theoretically take!!

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11 hours ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

I know I've read several times on here that they could most likely trade into the teens (if the right guy fell) by sending their 2nd (the Jets, I think)...so, was curious what the possibilities are?

Personally, I'd rather the value of the 26th and 34th picks rather than just one in the teens. There will still be plenty of top guys available at both of those picks. It all depends who they have on the big board. 

 

10 hours ago, loudnproudcolt said:

Look what he has done with the 2/3 seconds from last year. Ballard is looking to add to the DL, and the sweet spot for the DL is the second round once the top 5 edge players are gone, and likely will be gone by the top 12. Additionally, rounds 2-4 are the sweet spot for WR depth.

 

I would love to see him go dline or cornerback early, and in the second snag Hakeem Butler, Deebo Samuel or J.J. Arcega Whitside. 

This. Dre'Mont Jones could be available at 26. Then Oruwariye/Adderly at 34. Doubt Deebo drops to 58 but JJ could.

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4 hours ago, richard pallo said:

How about trading a high pick for a player?  I just read where Rich Cimini , an ESPN reporter for the Jets, is reporting the Jets view DT. Leonard Williams as a trade candidate due to his high upcoming 5th. yr option of 14.2m and the likelihood of losing him to FA the following year.  Removing his salary would allow them to easier pursue AB or Bell.  He stated a new team acquiring Williams would have to reach an extension with him before the trade though.  The Colts would have the capacity to do it.  Trade up, trade back or trade for a player will all be on the table.  Ballard will have a lot of opportunities to evaluate as the off season unfolds.  It's going to be an interesting one for sure.  

 

Agree. Colts are in a unique position where they can leverage their cap space to take advantage of teams that are a bit strapped.

 

Though ideally, they aren't trading early picks...but mid round picks.

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3 hours ago, Boiler_Colt said:

I can't see Ballard ever trading a future #1 which is likely what it would take to acquire the guys mentioned above. Only team I can remember going from the late 20's into the top 7 was Atlanta for Julio Jones and they paid a ton for it.

 

Yeah...moving up THAT far is a massive gamble. It worked out in the case of the Julio...but you better be damn sure. Plenty of recent examples of teams trading up and not getting good value.

 

This draft does have some potential elite talents. But I think for Ballard to trade up it would be in a scenario where a player he loves gets within a sniff of their pick (like mid-upper teens). I don't see him trying to move all the way up to the top 10.

 

And honestly, it's usually not the smart gamble (oxymoron)...except for QBs because of how rare they are. 

 

Here is a great read on why Day Two picks are really valuable in terms of cost-efficiency: http://www.profootballlogic.com/articles/nfl-draft-pick-value/

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Do you believe that Leonard Williams would be the type of game changing player worth giving away a high future pick and at least $15m/year? I don't. 

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11 hours ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

Some of the guys on here that are a little more knowledgeable about trading picks, their value, and all of that stuff...what are the Colts opportunities if they decide to trade up? I mean, could they trade all the way up and make a run at a Quinnen Williams or Josh Allen? If so, what would it take? I know I've read several times on here that they could most likely trade into the teens (if the right guy fell) by sending their 2nd (the Jets, I think)...so, was curious what the possibilities are?

your titles misleading you need to put should the colts trade up? for a moment i thought we actually were lol

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3 hours ago, Shadow_Creek said:

your titles misleading you need to put should the colts trade up? for a moment i thought we actually were lol

 

Well, the idea was to get some info on the process and how certain picks are valued

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We already have an extra 2nd and 4th rounder, so I don’t think the need for more draft picks is as big on Ballard’s priority unless it’s in the first 3 rounds.  Keeping more than 7 draft picks on your team each year is hard to do.

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10 hours ago, RNGDShobby said:

Personally, I'd rather the value of the 26th and 34th picks rather than just one in the teens. There will still be plenty of top guys available at both of those picks. It all depends who they have on the big board. 

 

This. Dre'Mont Jones could be available at 26. Then Oruwariye/Adderly at 34. Doubt Deebo drops to 58 but JJ could.

 

There should be several great WRs available with the pick at 58. I can't imagine more than 5 or so going before that. There's really only 3-4 I'd be comfortable with them taking at 34 (Deebo, Metcalf, Harmon, either Brown), otherwise grab either DT, DE, S, CB, OL, or LB. They can always get Isabella later in the draft, too. I am also a big fan of snagging Bennie Snell in the middle rounds, feel like that kid is gonna be stud in the league, plus it would promote competition amongst our backs. Plus, if Mack remains injury prone, we wouldn't be stuck with complimentary guys as lead backs. 

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14 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

Yeah...moving up THAT far is a massive gamble. It worked out in the case of the Julio...but you better be damn sure. Plenty of recent examples of teams trading up and not getting good value.

 

This draft does have some potential elite talents. But I think for Ballard to trade up it would be in a scenario where a player he loves gets within a sniff of their pick (like mid-upper teens). I don't see him trying to move all the way up to the top 10.

 

And honestly, it's usually not the smart gamble (oxymoron)...except for QBs because of how rare they are. 

 

Here is a great read on why Day Two picks are really valuable in terms of cost-efficiency: http://www.profootballlogic.com/articles/nfl-draft-pick-value/

I fully agree here. I don’t believe for a minute that Ballard trades a lot of draft capital to get into the top 10 area. I do however believe it’s possible that he takes a shot if, as you say, a player he loves drops close enough he could swap say our first and 3rd or 4th rounder to get to the 20-21 pick. Maybe

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18 minutes ago, Jdubu said:

I fully agree here. I don’t believe for a minute that Ballard trades a lot of draft capital to get into the top 10 area. I do however believe it’s possible that he takes a shot if, as you say, a player he loves drops close enough he could swap say our first and 3rd or 4th rounder to get to the 20-21 pick. Maybe

 

I had no idea that it would take that many picks to get that far up, that's insanity. It may be worth it if you were gonna get an Aaron Donald or Khalil Mack type impact player, but that's so ridiculously rare. I think Quinnen Williams is probably the only guy I'd be comfortable trading up to get...Montez Sweat also, if he starts to fall into the late teens, I'd definitely be okay moving to grab him. 

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1 minute ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

 

I had no idea that it would take that many picks to get that far up, that's insanity. It may be worth it if you were gonna get an Aaron Donald or Khalil Mack type impact player, but that's so ridiculously rare. I think Quinnen Williams is probably the only guy I'd be comfortable trading up to get...Montez Sweat also, if he starts to fall into the late teens, I'd definitely be okay moving to grab him. 

I tell you what, if I were going to do anything, I’d look at trading up into the cincy or Miami using both the second rounders and using  Brissett as the package. Both of those teams could use a competition for a new QB and Brissett has shown he is potentially capable to perform in the NFL. that gets us a 11 or 13 and we keep our 26. I’d rather have 2 higher quality picks than 3 hopefully we hit magic in the second. I also understand the though of having several avg-above average players to replace your highly above avg starters when they get injured. An example of that can be shown in the Pats. They don’t have superstars across their defense in reality but they have players who get their job done as a group and when Chung went out, that defense didn’t miss one step. Idk what’s best, hopefully CB can hit on whatever route he takes. 

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11 minutes ago, Jdubu said:

I tell you what, if I were going to do anything, I’d look at trading up into the cincy or Miami using both the second rounders and using  Brissett as the package. Both of those teams could use a competition for a new QB and Brissett has shown he is potentially capable to perform in the NFL. that gets us a 11 or 13 and we keep our 26. I’d rather have 2 higher quality picks than 3 hopefully we hit magic in the second. I also understand the though of having several avg-above average players to replace your highly above avg starters when they get injured. An example of that can be shown in the Pats. They don’t have superstars across their defense in reality but they have players who get their job done as a group and when Chung went out, that defense didn’t miss one step. Idk what’s best, hopefully CB can hit on whatever route he takes. 

 

Packaging Brissett and that late 2nd round pick to move up for a top DE (with the right traits like Sweat) is a solid move if the right player is there.

 

I think #26 isn't the best spot. That's why I can actually see Ballard drafting a WR if the top 1-2 on his board is there because that's where you start to enter a large range of players at other positions that have similar grades.

 

But trading up or trading back is most likely for me right now. I don't imagine he is going to be trading that #34 pick in any scenario. In the hands of a good talent evaluator, those picks are gold. In just the past three years they have yielded Jaylon Smith, Myles Jack, Chris Jones, Xavien Howard, Budda Baker, Nick Chubb, Will Hernandez, Darius Leonard and Braden Smith.

 

Not to mention this appears to be a very deep draft.

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Those top draft picks are expensive.  

 

Maybe a little less expensive this year since there isn't really a QB worth picking in the top 5.  But still too expensive unless we want to mortgage our future on it by sending a 2020 first out along with probably both 2nd round picks.  

 

Not worth it IMO

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On 2/3/2019 at 10:29 AM, Matthew Gilbert said:

I'd say that the odds of the Colts trading down is more likely than trading up.

not so sure about trading down....  if he does, it might be fore future picks, in higher rounds than they would be in for this year, Patriots style.... i.e. trade a 4th this year for a 3rd next year, etc.....  My thought here is, we already have 9 picks this year.  finding spots on the 53 for 9 rookies, plus any FA's is going to be hard next year, so why trade down for more picks THIS year?

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12 hours ago, DarkSuperman said:

I rather see us trade back our 26th pick if we can pick up multiple second rounders.

Probably not going to get multiple 2nd's in the 2019 draft for the 26th..... unless it's something like this....

 

On "The Chart"  the 26 pick is worth 700 pts.  

 

As for trading for multiple 2nd round picks

 

KC has picks 63 (276pts) 61 (292pts)  = 568pts. for 700pts.

 

Hou has picks 55 (350pts) 54 (360pts) = 710pts. for 700pts.

 

No one else currently has multiple 2nd rounders.  The Texans would have to really like a guy to give us a total of 4 2nd rounders I believe, but it's totally plausible...  

 

KC would have to throw in either their 93rd pick in rd. 3 (132pts) for a total 698pts.... or a future pick.

 

With only these 2 teams having multiple 2nd rounders, I think it's slim that he makes your proposed trade, unless CB takes a future pick package from some other team who's in love with a player that fell.... which is possible, just too many moving parts and unknown variables to really consider it a likely option at this point....  though it isn't beyond comprehension that it could happen either....

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19 minutes ago, Shafty138 said:

Probably not going to get multiple 2nd's in the 2019 draft for the 26th..... unless it's something like this....

 

On "The Chart"  the 26 pick is worth 700 pts.  

 

As for trading for multiple 2nd round picks

 

KC has picks 63 (276pts) 61 (292pts)  = 568pts. for 700pts.

 

Hou has picks 55 (350pts) 54 (360pts) = 710pts. for 700pts.

 

No one else currently has multiple 2nd rounders.  The Texans would have to really like a guy to give us a total of 4 2nd rounders I believe, but it's totally plausible...  

 

KC would have to throw in either their 93rd pick in rd. 3 (132pts) for a total 698pts.... or a future pick.

 

With only these 2 teams having multiple 2nd rounders, I think it's slim that he makes your proposed trade, unless CB takes a future pick package from some other team who's in love with a player that fell.... which is possible, just too many moving parts and unknown variables to really consider it a likely option at this point....  though it isn't beyond comprehension that it could happen either....

 

I would happily settle for another early 2nd round pick and an early-mid 3rd round pick. Or move back to the back of the 1st round for a late 3rd round pick. But I am not having my only pick in the top 45 be #34.

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On 2/3/2019 at 11:50 AM, richard pallo said:

How about trading a high pick for a player?  I just read where Rich Cimini , an ESPN reporter for the Jets, is reporting the Jets view DT. Leonard Williams as a trade candidate due to his high upcoming 5th. yr option of 14.2m and the likelihood of losing him to FA the following year.  Removing his salary would allow them to easier pursue AB or Bell.  He stated a new team acquiring Williams would have to reach an extension with him before the trade though.  The Colts would have the capacity to do it.  Trade up, trade back or trade for a player will all be on the table.  Ballard will have a lot of opportunities to evaluate as the off season unfolds.  It's going to be an interesting one for sure.  

There have been reports of trading Williams The past 2 seasons. I would trade a lower draft pick for him like a 3rd but i doubt they will bite and they will continue to want too get a very high draft pick and they still wont get it then he will become a F/A.

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