Should the Colts extend Ebron?

[LJpalmbeacher2]

https://www.stampedeblue.com/platform/amp/2019/1/30/18152463/should-the-colts-extend-eric-ebrons-contract#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s

[jchandler7]

I'd wait and resign him before he hits free agency next year as long as he has another productive season and stays healthy. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

The argument in that article to do it now makes sense. If he has a better season then this season signing him now could be cheaper.

[chrisfarley]

Tied for 3rd in the league for drops at 9.  66 receptions for 750.  11.4 avg.  250 YAC (non Tight-End comparison example Julio Jones at 448 YAC).  Many of the top receivers in the league have as many or more drops than Ebron.  If he can clean that up a bit, he will be even more dangerous. But,  I say do what you have to do to keep him, absolutely.  

[chad72]

Age is definitely on Ebron's side. With the way Reich's system uses TEs, I'd have to say yes and lock him up at $8 mil. per year, if possible, for another 3 years. 

[coltsfeva]

  I just hope he improves as far as dropped passes, although I don’t think it’s as bad as some say. He does seem to get open, he’s 25 and seems to be a good fit.

   I’d love to see Mo Allie Cox be a part of the future (he’s signed a reserve/future contract last January).

   If Doyle is limited or can’t come back from the hip issue, Cox is the best option as a receiving/ blocking TE.

   

[shasta519]

No I don't think they should. If they want to add another year at the current rate...sure. But I would wait until next offseason to look at locking him up for a few more years.

 

Some of the contracts used in that SB article are cautionary tales for extending TEs. I would just assume wait and see what he does next season...and then offer another 2 or 3 year deal based on health and production.

[cbear]

Anybody know what his drop rate was per target, something like that?  Maybe it's my imagination, but I picture him dropping a lot of passes considering his number of targets. 

 

I just don't know about him to be honest.  I like to watch plays in slow motion, and when I see that a ball is heading his way, I cringe. 

[DougDew]

I think I would talk about extending any player's contract as the current contract is expiring, not a year earlier.  I don't know if what Ebron did or does is necessarily out of whack with what he is making to a great degree, so I would wait and see how it goes next year.

[Nesjan3]

He was a great redzone target but he also had a LOT of drops. Also as a TE your suppose to be able to at least threaten a block. I remember an opposing coach this season (cant remember who) saying they were treating Ebron as a WR..

 

I would say if he improves his blocking and catching, has another good redzone year, than yes extend him.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

4 minutes ago, Nesjan3 said:

He was a great redzone target but he also had a LOT of drops. Also as a TE your suppose to be able to at least threaten a block. I remember an opposing coach this season (cant remember who) saying they were treating Ebron as a WR..

 

I would say if he improves his blocking and catching, has another good redzone year, than yes extend him.

That’s because he is basically a wide receiver.

 

Its funny to me how people are still going  back to the drops in Detroit. 

[shasta519]

6 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think I would talk about extending any player's contract as the current contract is expiring, not a year earlier.  I don't know if what Ebron did or does is necessarily out of whack with what he is making to a great degree, so I would wait and see how it goes next year.

 

Yeah...I don't think Ballard needs to set this precedent of extending guys a year early...especially guys that are already on larger deals. And definitely not after only one year with the team.

 

It's one thing when you do that for special players entering the final year of their rookie deals...like they did with AC and Hilton...but it's a slippery slope after that.

 

Who's next...Sheard? He only has one year left. Autry after next season? I think you just play it out and if he has another good season...there is plenty of time to figure it out. 

[Finball]

Depends. If I want to extend him, I'd do it now. Tight ends don't make a lot of money so they get at the current market only 2 guaranteed years. So the guaranteed years in my proposed extension would be next year (when he's unlikely to be cut) and 2020. 2020 is the only real 'risk' or wasted money if he falls off the cliff next year. Along with maybe couple of million extra he would gain for next year. But if he doesn't regress heavily, the extension would tie him up at cheaper price than it would cost to extend him next year and at lower risk, as it's essentially one year extension in GDT money as we're not going to cut him next year.

 

If he's been a good teammate and has worked hard, has so no signs that he would mail it in after getting paid and no injury issues etc. I'd extend him. From what I've seen, I'd do it. He seemed like 'stay far away' type of kind in Detroit and I wasn't happy with the deal but I was wrong on that.

 

I should note that his catch rate and yards per reception didn't really improve from his Lions years. Catch rate was actually the 2nd worst of his career. He might be due regression to the mean in TDs so I would be hesitant to give him significant raise. The genius offensive mind of Caldwell didn't just realize to use him as a RZ threat in Detroit. 

[cbear]

6 minutes ago, Finball said:

Depends. If I want to extend him, I'd do it now. Tight ends don't make a lot of money so they get at the current market only 2 guaranteed years. So the guaranteed years in my proposed extension would be next year (when he's unlikely to be cut) and 2020. 2020 is the only real 'risk' or wasted money if he falls off the cliff next year. Along with maybe couple of million extra he would gain for next year. But if he doesn't regress heavily, the extension would tie him up at cheaper price than it would cost to extend him next year and at lower risk, as it's essentially one year extension in GDT money as we're not going to cut him next year.

 

If he's been a good teammate and has worked hard, has so no signs that he would mail it in after getting paid and no injury issues etc. I'd extend him. From what I've seen, I'd do it. He seemed like 'stay far away' type of kind in Detroit and I wasn't happy with the deal but I was wrong on that.

 

I should note that his catch rate and yards per reception didn't really improve from his Lions years. Catch rate was actually the 2nd worst of his career. He might be due regression to the mean in TDs so I would be hesitant to give him significant raise. The genius offensive mind of Caldwell didn't just realize to use him as a RZ threat in Detroit. 

 

What do you mean by catch rate?  

[Finball]

2 minutes ago, cbear said:

 

What do you mean by catch rate?  

 

Number of catches per number of targets.

[Nesjan3]

1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

That’s because he is basically a wide receiver.

 

Its funny to me how people are still going  back to the drops in Detroit. 

I am not talking about any drops he had in Detroit, 2018 Eric Ebron stats, on 110 targets he has 9 drops, thats just under 10% of the targets dropped and tied for 3rd in the league...

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 hour ago, Nesjan3 said:

I am not talking about any drops he had in Detroit, 2018 Eric Ebron stats, on 110 targets he has 9 drops, thats just under 10% of the targets dropped and tied for 3rd in the league...

I don’t really care where he ranks. 9 drops in 16 games seems like a very small amount to me. That’s less then one per game. Also doesn’t take into account the multiple other  reasons he could had those nine drops. The way posters are talking about him you would think he was dropping half his passes.10% is very low.

[Fluke_33]

yes.   

He led the league in tds for his position. 

 

He also seems to be a positive influence in the locker room.  At least when you see the postgame videos, he is certainly a prominent figure (always up front or near the coach).  

 

I think it will show other potential free agents that if you come here and do well you will be rewarded. 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

10% dropped passes is very low for the amount of balls he has coming his way. If I was someone who didn’t know anything about him and read some of these comments I would be thinking he is dropping 50% of his passes. 

[Nesjan3]

20 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I don’t really care where he ranks. 9 drops in 16 games seems like a very small amount to me. That’s less then one per game. Also doesn’t take into account the multiple other  reasons he could had those nine drops.

Thats fine... everyone is entitled to an opinion. Reality is though 9 drops in 16 games on the NFL level is not a small amount, some teams go 16 games without 9 drops.

[Fluke_33]

2 minutes ago, Nesjan3 said:

Thats fine... everyone is entitled to an opinion. Reality is though 9 drops in 16 games on the NFL level is not a small amount, some teams go 16 games without 9 drops.

you don't mean a whole team for a full season has 8 drops or less do you?  

9 doesn't seem like a lot for a player in a season to me but less than that for a whole team for a season can't be true.  IF so, what teams? when?

[crazycolt1]

22 minutes ago, Nesjan3 said:

Thats fine... everyone is entitled to an opinion. Reality is though 9 drops in 16 games on the NFL level is not a small amount, some teams go 16 games without 9 drops.

I seriously would like to see a list of those teams.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

30 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

you don't mean a whole team for a full season has 8 drops or less do you?  

9 doesn't seem like a lot for a player in a season to me but less than that for a whole team for a season can't be true.  IF so, what teams? when?

Yes that cant be true. That doesn’t even seem possible.

[Nesjan3]

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=232

 

Just this year LA Rams only had 9, Seahawks had 8...two teams at 10. If you go back in time there is many more

Just now, Nesjan3 said:

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=232

 

Just this year LA Rams only had 9, Seahawks had 8...two teams at 10. If you go back in time there is many more

 

32 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

you don't mean a whole team for a full season has 8 drops or less do you?  

9 doesn't seem like a lot for a player in a season to me but less than that for a whole team for a season can't be true.  IF so, what teams? when?

 

15 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

I seriously would like to see a list of those teams.

 

[Nesjan3]

5 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Yes that cant be true. That doesn’t even seem possible.

link posted above

[Fluke_33]

4 minutes ago, Nesjan3 said:

http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=232

 

Just this year LA Rams only had 9, Seahawks had 8...two teams at 10. If you go back in time there is many more

 

 

 

That is fascinating.  It doesn't seem right.  I feel like i've seen at least one drop in every game and not just colts games.  

 

I wonder if there is some definition on what constitutes a drop that would change this.  I have to look into it more.  Crazy!

[Nesjan3]

10 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

That is fascinating.  It doesn't seem right.  I feel like i've seen at least one drop in every game and not just colts games.  

 

I wonder if there is some definition on what constitutes a drop that would change this.  I have to look into it more.  Crazy!

Yes i am not sure what exactly constitutes a drop or a catch for that matter. Im just trying to show that 9 drops in the NFL is quite a bit, only Jarvis Landry had more with 11. As well going back to 00 the league average hovers around per team 17-18 drops, Ebron in this case accounts for 50% of the league average per team.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

21 minutes ago, Nesjan3 said:

link posted above

I don’t believe that. It’s a statistic that can’t even really be determined. So many things other then thd player just dropping the ball can go into them dropping it. It’s basically a judgement call.

 

The rams are more of a rushing team. Of course they might have less.

[crazycolt1]

6 minutes ago, Nesjan3 said:

Yes i am not sure what exactly constitutes a drop or a catch for that matter. Im just trying to show that 9 drops in the NFL is quite a bit, only Jarvis Landry had more with 11. As well going back to 00 the league average hovers around per team 17-18 drops, Ebron in this case accounts for 50% of the league average per team.

Ebron had 6 drops this season. I don't know where you come up with 9?  Not bad when you consider Edelman led with 3 others in the most drops with 8.

[Fluke_33]

2 minutes ago, Nesjan3 said:

Yes i am not sure what exactly constitutes a drop or a catch for that matter. Im just trying to show that 9 drops in the NFL is quite a bit, only Jarvis Landry had more with 11. As well going back to 00 the league average hovers around per team 17-18 drops, Ebron in this case accounts for 50% of the league average per team.

Yeah i ge that but now i'm headed down a rabbit hole and I need to know more because it just doesn't seem right to me.   

 

This is what they (your link) have on Brandin Cooks:  117 targets for 80 catches and no drops.

 

How is that possible?  He didn't catch 37 balls and all of those were errant throws?

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

A player that has more passes coming their way is going to most likely have a few more drops. Also a team that rushes more is going to have less.

[Nesjan3]

13 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Ebron had 6 drops this season. I don't know where you come up with 9?  Not bad when you consider Edelman led with 3 others in the most drops with 8.

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?season=2018&week=100&category=RECEIVING&opp=0&sort=11&qualified=1&sortOrder=0&page=1

 

This stat page says otherwise as well as a couple more.

[Nesjan3]

LOL ok i get it people love Ebron i do to, im leaving this thread after saying this. Ebron was an awesome addition and i wan't him back, broke Clarks TD record thats saying something...BUT he did have a lot of drops !

[crazycolt1]

2 minutes ago, Nesjan3 said:

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?season=2018&week=100&category=RECEIVING&opp=0&sort=11&qualified=1&sortOrder=0&page=1

 

This stat page says otherwise as well as a couple more.

Espn stats don't match. So it's all in opinion.

Ebron's drops are exaggerated in this forum.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 minutes ago, Nesjan3 said:

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?season=2018&week=100&category=RECEIVING&opp=0&sort=11&qualified=1&sortOrder=0&page=1

 

This stat page says otherwise as well as a couple more.

I think what we are seeing is players in the nfl don’t drop the ball a lot. So just because someone is high it doesn’t mean they dropped it a lot.  A player who is targeted more is most likely going to have a few more. Teams that rush more are going to have a lot less.

[Superman]

10 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Espn stats don't match. So it's all in opinion.

Ebron's drops are exaggerated in this forum.

 

Drops are subjective. Whether it's 6 or 9, though, it's too many, and it's not news that Ebron will drop passes at times.

[DougDew]

For the record, I think Ebron's drops are exaggerated.

 

But I'd prefer to find a 6.5 230 pound "slow" college WR in this draft and line him up as a 230 pound non-blocking TE rather than pay a 250 pound nonblocking TE $5M per year.

 

I figure a guy with great hands and height and route running, but not quick enough to get open as a WR against NFL CBs, can get open against LBers and SS's as well as a lot of "TE"'s.  Get him in the 3rd or 4th round and save the money we spend on Ebron.

 

But that's JMO.

[Superman]

I'd wait to offer Ebron a new contract. If he's having a strong season next year, then toward the end of the year I'd approach him about an extension, and get it done before free agency warms up.

[oldunclemark]

5 hours ago, chad72 said:

Age is definitely on Ebron's side. With the way Reich's system uses TEs, I'd have to say yes and lock him up at $8 mil. per year, if possible, for another 3 years. 

I think he enjoyed his first year here....he clearly produced..

..and Andrew has confidence in him.

 

He drops a few but he's a Pro Bowl guy near the goal line.

If we can get him and Jack Doyle on the field for 16 games next season, we'll really see some pass catching numbers

[aaron11]

1 hour ago, Fluke_33 said:

I wonder if there is some definition on what constitutes a drop that would change this.  I have to look into it more.  

 

i heard an announcer mention this recently but i forget who.  its not an exact science, sort of like the stat for assisted tackles.  at some point somebody makes a judgment call