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bertjones7

Jeff Simmons DT Miss St - off field incident

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I posted something similar in a thread a few weeks ago but thought this warrants it’s own thread. Would the colts even have Simmons on their draft board? 

 

Simmons was a HS AA & had a Joe Mixon type incident HS (check out 28 sec mark of video below) . Mullen & Miss st allowed him to enroll. He is a stud on the field but might drop in draft once his story & video hits the mainstream media. 

 

 

 

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I almost posted this same topic an hour ago but never submitted it.  The Chiefs (including Ballard) have a history of going after troubled players when the value is right.  However, with the Kareem Hunt thing this year, all the talk of high character guys, and Reich as coach.. i dunno.  

 

His college production analytics are good but not in the all pro possibility level.  This makes me think there is a real possibility of this scenario playing out.

 

 

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Where as some teams might not even look at him I would not go as far as saying he is a troubled player. He was in high school and owned up to everything immediately. He has also shown nothing else is relation to off the field issues while in college. I would say teams will see this and be able to put it behind them. 

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Mississippi State swears by his character, and that he's not the same guy. They'd know as well as anybody I guess. Regardless, this guy won't make it out of the Top 15, he's too talented and has the ceiling to be a monster in the NFL. 

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Yeah, I've heard the same - that he's been an exemplary student and player both on and off the field and that Mississippi state are heaping endless praises for him as a person. But we've heard similar things before that turned out to be nonsense(for other players) so I don't know how much and what to believe. I guess ultimately we have to trust Ballard and his staff to get to the bottom of it and evaluate the risks, the price of the PR hit and the potential rewards of having Simmons on the team. 

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See everyone likes to talk about Ballard’s history with troubled players at KC, but that’s the issue. It was with KC and he wasn’t the one making the draft picks. He just did the scouting. And mind you this was under a different owner.

 

So far in his tenure as GM with the Colts, Ballard hasn’t taken a chance on any player with a troubled background besides Collins, and that’s only because Collins cost basically nothing to get. But all of his draft picks have been strong character guys. Squeaky clean off the field, team captains, don’t showboat on the field, gentlemen, no dirty players, etc...We know he admitted he had Mixon on his draft board but he passed over him. If Ballard is going to start taking chances on guys, I don’t expect it to start with someone with baggage that heavy and public.

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3 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

See everyone likes to talk about Ballard’s history with troubled players at KC, but that’s the issue. It was with KC and he wasn’t the one making the draft picks. He just did the scouting. And mind you this was under a different owner.

 

So far in his tenure as GM with the Colts, Ballard hasn’t taken a chance on any player with a troubled background besides Collins, and that’s only because Collins cost basically nothing to get. But all of his draft picks have been strong character guys. Squeaky clean off the field, team captains, don’t showboat on the field, gentlemen, no dirty players, etc...We know he admitted he had Mixon on his draft board but he passed over him. If Ballard is going to start taking chances on guys, I don’t expect it to start with someone with baggage that heavy and public.

Just for the record, word is Cain fell to the 6th because of off-the-field concerns. 

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1 minute ago, stitches said:

Just for the record word is Cain fell to the 6th because of off-the-field concerns. 

I thought it was just because he dropped a lot of passes. I didn’t read anything about character concerns in his draft profile. I’ll have to dive deeper into that.

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1 minute ago, Defjamz26 said:

I thought it was just because he dropped a lot of passes. I didn’t read anything about character concerns in his draft profile. I’ll have to dive deeper into that.

He got suspended by Clemson for the playoffs in 2015 for "violating team rules" and Dabo Swinney held him out of spring practice the following spring. 

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/96439/deon-cains-off-field-turnaround-key-to-clemsons-on-field-success

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59 minutes ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

Mississippi State swears by his character, and that he's not the same guy. They'd know as well as anybody I guess. Regardless, this guy won't make it out of the Top 15, he's too talented and has the ceiling to be a monster in the NFL. 

 

Since 1969 when the NFL collected data necessary to do analytics, there has never been a player with his profile that was an all pro, and he doesn't even make the average pro bowl thresholds.  I am not saying he is bad, far from it, but he isn't the all world talent many are making him out to be.  So, unless your idea of a monster is a pro bowl every couple of years then I agree, otherwise there is very little possibility he exceeds that level.

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22 minutes ago, stitches said:

Just for the record, word is Cain fell to the 6th because of off-the-field concerns. 

Ballard said no gambles in early rounds.

3rd round talent in the 6th round is not a huge risk IMO.

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12 minutes ago, bhougland said:

 

Since 1969 when the NFL collected data necessary to do analytics, there has never been a player with his profile that was an all pro, and he doesn't even make the average pro bowl thresholds.  I am not saying he is bad, far from it, but he isn't the all world talent many are making him out to be.  So, unless your idea of a monster is a pro bowl every couple of years then I agree, otherwise there is very little possibility he exceeds that level.

Huh? What are those thresholds? Are those thresholds for production? 

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2 minutes ago, stitches said:

Huh? What are those thresholds? Are those thresholds for production? 

Yea.  Check out this guy's YouTube channel:

 

 

 

Last year he provided his data sets for everyone to explore.  Funny enough, I was looking at LB prospects and 3 of the 4 that reached the All Pro thresholds were:

Roquan Smith

leighton vander esch

Darious Leonard

 

I dismissed Darious because he was in FCS, but thankfully i was wrong.

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19 minutes ago, bhougland said:

Yea.  Check out this guy's YouTube channel:

 

You didn't post the link, but I think I know who you are talking about because he had similar video about Chubb last year.(edit: I saw you posted the link, thanks. yah, that's the guy I was thinking about) 

 

Just FYI the thresholds are for 3-times(!!) All-pro and pro-bowlers if I'm not mistaken... IMO this means close to nothing. It means practically that you are not a generational talent(3 times and more than that all-pro). Pretty much every player is like that. Very few players satisfy that one. That's why we are even talking about him falling to the 20s. If we expected him to be perennial all-pro he would be in the conversation with Quinnen Williams about top 3 pick. He can still be a great player without satisfying that arbitrary threshold. 

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5 minutes ago, stitches said:

You didn't post the link, but I think I know who you are talking about because he had similar video about Chubb last year. 

 

Just FYI the thresholds are for 3-times(!!) All-pro and pro-bowlers if I'm not mistaken... IMO this means close to nothing. It means practically that you are not a generational talent(3 times and more than that all-pro). Pretty much every player is like that. Very few players satisfy that one. That's why we are even talking about him falling to the 20s. If we expected him to be perennial all-pro he would be in the conversation with Quinnen Williams about top 3 pick. He can still be a great player without satisfying that arbitrary threshold. 

 

Sometimes he does a slide for multiple all-pro and pro-bowlers, but not usually.  In the case of Simmons it was not.  These analytics mean a lot, and those that don't take them into account wonder why their 1st round selection was a bust (think Dante Fowler).  It doesn't mean he will be bad, it just means that he has a pretty defined ceiling. 

 

 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, bhougland said:

 

Sometimes he does a slide for multiple all-pro and pro-bowlers, but not usually.  In the case of Simmons it was not.  These analytics mean a lot, and those that don't take them into account wonder why their 1st round selection was a bust (think Dante Fowler).  It doesn't mean he will be bad, it just means that he has a pretty defined ceiling. 

 

I don't ignore them, but it's important to know exactly what they mean. There is a whole lot of room between Dante Fowler and say... Khalil Mack. Like Cam Jordan for example, who if I remember correctly didn't satisfy his thresholds for all-pro.  

 

Last year when I asked him about the thresholds he told me he's using 3 times all-pros as the threshold. I don't know if he's changed that now. I don't think this is a defined ceiling at all... He is above the pro-bowl averages. If you draft a perennial pro-bowler in the 20s that's pretty good outcome overall. I'd take that every time. And if he is indeed filtering out all 2 times and fewer all-pros this might mean that he might be multiple times pro bowler and once or twice all-pro. That is ceiling-wise of course...  I don't think that's a low ceiling at all.

 

It's also important to note that this is not a final sentence. That threshold he's showing... someone else was the threshold before that guy made 3 all-pro teams. That's how it works. It might tell you it's not likely for him get there, but it's not impossible either. 

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I usually don't want any part of a guy who punches a woman. But it was a female family member, so I kinda give him a pass.

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Obviously colts & other teams will need to due their due diligence. I will say having actual video proof of an incident causes much more scrutiny and media backlash. 

 

For instance, folks that closely follow hs recruiting and college football were very aware of the joe Mixon incident and the unreleased video. When the video was released and started showing up on TV etc.... the Joe Mixon incident became a much bigger deal. 

 

Ray Rice & Kareem Hunt incidents also were viewed very differently once the videos were released. 

 

Right or not, violence is viewed very differently when people actual see it vs just reading a report about it. 

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It's not as easy as just drafting people solely based off of statistical means. If it were we wouldn't have any pre-draft process, they'd just type everyone into a database and their rankings would reflect that. There's a ton of intangibles and factors that filter into the process. There's no way that's 100%, probably not even close. 

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1 hour ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

It's not as easy as just drafting people solely based off of statistical means. If it were we wouldn't have any pre-draft process, they'd just type everyone into a database and their rankings would reflect that. There's a ton of intangibles and factors that filter into the process. There's no way that's 100%, probably not even close. 

 

I don't think that is what the analytics crowd is saying.  Plenty of prospects that meet these levels don't pan out for one reason or another, it is just much more likely that they wont pan out if they don't meet minimum thresholds. 

 

Once an outlier is found, then they become the new minimum threshold.  I mean, are you saying that your prospecting talent is soooo good that you are able to pick out the exception to the rule?

 

If you are using a 3rd round pick on a guy that isn't going to be an all-pro then that is to be expected.  But if you are using the 3rd overall pick, don't you think you should try to get BPA and a guy that meets these thresholds?

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25 minutes ago, bhougland said:

 

I don't think that is what the analytics crowd is saying.  Plenty of prospects that meet these levels don't pan out for one reason or another, it is just much more likely that they wont pan out if they don't meet minimum thresholds. 

 

Once an outlier is found, then they become the new minimum threshold.  I mean, are you saying that your prospecting talent is soooo good that you are able to pick out the exception to the rule?

 

If you are using a 3rd round pick on a guy that isn't going to be an all-pro then that is to be expected.  But if you are using the 3rd overall pick, don't you think you should try to get BPA and a guy that meets these thresholds?

 

No, my prospecting talent is mediocre at best, unlike most people on this forum I know -and can admit- that lol. 

 

I'm sure it's a percentage of what goes into the determining process, but to say that Simmons won't pan out based off of that, when he's destroying SEC competitors, doesn't make sense to me. Guess we'll see over the next few seasons.

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