Stitches' Colts Mock Off-season ver.1.0

[stitches]

Here my first attempt(it's going to be an aggressive one... more of a what I want to happen than what I think Ballard would do). It is NOT going to be perfect and I probably will make some mistakes with free agency designations(RFAs vs UFAs etc.), assumptions about the price of players etc.. If you see egregious mistakes please don't hesitate to point them out. 

 

I'm using Overthecap's Colts page for salary numbers. I'm using this article for Colts' own free agents.

I will be using spotrac's free agency tracker to find other teams' free agents and if there is market value figure listed, I will try to be close to it, unless I deem it ridiculous for one reason or another. 

For the draft I will be using fanspeak's mock system. I will run it with Matt Millers board, but I will try to take players based on how I feel about the players without trying to cheat the system(for example if a player I have ranked no. 20 is there on the board at 26 and is BPA, but is ranked 77 on Miller's board I will NOT pass on him because I know I can draft him in later rounds, I would consider this cheating the system because I have information that in the real world GMs don't really have). 

 

Starting Team Cap Space: $117,374,480

 

Own Free Agents:

Unrestricted FAs

Pierre Desir, CB 3 years 17M (9M guaranteed, 6 fully guaranteed first year)

Clayton Geathers, SS 1 year 3.5M 

Margus Hunt, DL - 1 year 3M guaranteed

Dontrelle Inman, WR 1 year 5M guaranteed

Mike Mitchell. SS 1 year 2.5M guaranteed

Matt Slauson, OG 1 year 2.0M guaranteed

Adam Vinatieri, K 1 year 3.5M guaranteed

Mark Glowinski, OG - I want to sign him, but IMO he's going to get more than I'm willing to give him so I will let him go
Najee Goode, LB
Ryan Grant, WR
Geneo Grissom, DE
Ryan Hewitt, TE
J'Marcus Webb, OT
JJ Wilcox, SS
Al Woods, DT

 

Restricted FAs

Evan Boehm OC/OG - original-round tender(1 year/2.05M)

Mathias Farley, S - original round tender(1 year/2.05M)

Chester Rogers, WR - original round tender (1 year/2.05M)

Chris Milton -no tender
Corey Moore - no tender
Ross Travis - no tender

 

Exclusive rights FAs

Marcus Johnson, WR 1 year 660K

Luke Rhodes, LB/LS/ST 1 year 660K

 

----------------------Total Spent on Own FAs: $32.97M ||| Remaining Cap Space: $84,404,480

 

Other Teams' FAs:

Preston Smith, DE, 26 years old. 4 years 48M(28M guaranteed, 12M fully guaranteed in the first year)  - here's a young free agent coming off his rookie contract. Ex-2nd round pick. A player who's been improving every year and has shown some exciting things athletically. He is an athletic freak who will fit seamlessly into our aggressive attacking scheme(eventual replacement for Sheard) 

 

Tyrell Williams, WR 27 years old, 3 years 30M(16M guaranteed, 10M fully guaranteed 1st year). 10M a year might seem a bit excessive but IMO he is the best WR on the board and he will get paid because of an overall underwhelming class. He has experience with both Sirianni and Reich and I can see them pushing for him. We need a reliable big receiver who can track and catch the ball in contested situations. We don't really have this type fo receiver right now. He also has some speed which helps him get separation. As you can see I'm targeting young players throughout this mock - he is still only 26 years old too(will turn 27 in couple of weeks). 

 

Mike Iupati, OG 31 years old - 1 year 4M - multiple times pro-bowler and all-pro, Iupati has finished two consecutive years on IR and is getting up there in age, this is why I'm giving him a smaller contract than one might assume for the level of player he is when at 100%. This year he started very shaky after missing almost the full 2017 season, but was gaining steam by week 13 when he suffered an MCL sprain and was placed on IR. I will be willing to take a chance on him returning to his high end play from before his injuries(2017 bicep injury, 2018 MCL - so I don't think they are related). He will be starter/competition for the RG spot on our roster.

 

Grady Jarrett, DT, 26 years old - 5 years/75M (46M guaranteed, 15M guaranteed 1st year) This is the crown jewel of our free agency. I'm not sure Atlanta will let him hit free agency, but if they do, we need to jump on it. He is an elite interior lineman and just had his best season, ranking no. 6 on PFFs interior linemen ranking and a lot of it was due to his exceptional 3d down pass-rush productivity - according to PFF he was ranked 3d in win %(21.8) and 2nd in pass-rush grade (90.1) on 3d downs. Yes, he is undersized but come on. That's the reason he was underdrafted too... at some point his play has to matter more than his 6'0 height. He is one of the better interior linemen and better interior pass-rushers in the league right now and again - he's still just 26! Put him in our either at the nose or at 3tech and unleash him onto opponents. I believe he can even improve his pass-rush productivity when given the license to just go and be aggressive. 

 

Cam Fleming, OT, 26 years old, 1 year/4M - a solid swing tackle/spot starter/depth

 

Justin Coleman, CB 26years old - 2years 8M (5M guaranteed, 4M 1st year) - solid CB for competition/depth... Again... he's still young too, comes from Seattle, just like Desir. 

 

 

Those are the main FA acquisitions. I will give allowance of about 10M more for filling out the roster with several more depth/competition pieces. 

 

And with that said... 

 

----------------------Total Spent on Other Teams' FAs: $59M ||| Remaining Cap Space: $25,404,480

 

And here comes the draft... 

 

Round 1. Pick 26 Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson... here we go. We put together a Clemson interior linemen combo of Grady Jarret and Christian Wilkins. Both of them can rush the passer, both of them can stop the run. This is the off-season we get set at interior DL. 

 

Round 2. Pick 34 N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State. Regulars here know that I'm not Harry's biggest fan but if he falls to the second round, I think the value is solid and I think he provides exactly what we need as a after the catch threat. He's extremely explosive with the ball in his hands - he can make people miss and he can truck over them when needed to get an extra yard or two for a first down. He's very physical at the catch point on contested catches. He completes our receiving core very well. 

 

Round 2. Pick 58 Nasir Adderley, S, Delaware - very physical and aggressive safety, with great technical tackling skills and good in coverage. He is extremely versatile and can play both in the box and single high. Will fit great in our system and will be great complement to Hooker. He might be this year's small school gem, ala Darius Leonard.

 

Round 3, pick 89 Dalton Risner, OT/OG, Kansas State - one of PFF's favorites. Reports are that NFL teams are not as crazy about him as people assumed early in the process. Matt Miller has him pretty low on his board too, but I have to take him here. I'm willing to draft him as a depth/competition/developmental prospect with versatility to play both RT and and guard. He's got a physical and nasty streak in the run game and has good anchor in pass pro. Needs work with his pass set in pass-protection, but overall I think he would be a steal at this point of the draft. He might even push for starting spot sometime during his rookie season. 

 

 Round 4, pick 128 Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma If he was healthy he would go much higher, but a RB with a current ACL injury is likely to fall(and he did in this simulation mock too). He has in spades what Mack is missing the most- contact balance. He has good size and plays with force and power in addition to having a great burst through even the smallest holes. I think he can be a great complement to our stable of young RBs and possibly be even more if he manages to stay healthy. 

 

Round 4, pick 135 Chase Hansen, LB Utah. He's a converted LB(from safety)  and he's a playmaker. Flies all over the field, very rangy. Had impressive 22 tackles for loss and 5 sacks this last year as his first time LB. Comes from zone defense so he will fit well in our Tampa 2. Has to work on getting off blocks better, but that's why you get him in the late 4th. 

 

Round 5, pick 165 Jamel Dean, CB Auburn. Had somewhat of a down year but I still like his physical profile. He is huge and physical! If he gets his hands on you at the LOS and jam you, you are not getting much separation. Might be better fit for man-press scheme, but oh well... at this point of the draft I'm good drafting physical and athletic profile and coaching him up to do what is required in our scheme

 

Round 6, pick 200 Hunter Renfrow, WR, Clemson - great hands, good router runner. Slot receiver in our rotation. 

 

Round 7, pick 242 Joe Dineen, LB, Kansas 

 

 

----------------------Total Spent on Draftees: $10M ||| Remaining Cap Space: $15,404,480

 

Depth chart:

Offense:
QB: Andrew Luck, Jacoby Brissett, Phillip Walker
RB: Marlon Mack, Rodney Anderson, Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins
WR1: TY Hilton, N'Keal Harry, Zach Pascal, Daurice Fountain,  Steve Ishmael
WR2: Tyrell Williams, Deon Cain, Marcus Johnson, Krishawn Hogan
Slot: Dontrelle Inman, Chester Rogers, Hunter Renfrow, James Wright, Jordan Veasy
TE1: Jack Doyle, Mo Alie-Cox
TE2: Eric Ebron, Billy Brown
LT: Anthony Castonzo, Cam Fleming, Le'Raven Clark, Antonio Garcia
LG: Quenton Nelson, Joe Haeg
OC: Ryan Kelly, Evan Boehm
RG: Mike Iupati, Matt Slauson
RT: Braden Smith, Dalton Risner, De'Ondre Wesley

Deffense:
LDE: Jabaal Sheart, Denico Autry, Jihad Ward, Al-Quadin Muhammad
DT: Christian Wilkins, Hassan Ridgeway, Grover Stewart
3T: Grady Jarrett, Margus Hunt, Tyquan Lewis, DeShawn Williams
RDE: Preston Smith, Kemoko Turay, Carroll Phillips
WILL: Darius Leonard, Chase Hansen, Anthony Winbush
MIKE: Anthony Walker Jr., Skai Moore, Joe Dineen
SAM: Matthew Adams, Zaire Franklin
SS: Clayton Geathers, Mike Mitchell, Isaiah Johnson,  Ahmad Thomas
FS: Malik Hooker, Nasir Adderley, Mathias Farley, George Odum, Rolan Milligan
RCB: Quincy Wilson, Jalen Collins, Jamel Dean
LCB: Pierre Desir, Justin Coleman, D.J. Killings
Slot: Kenny Moore II, Nate Hairston

Special teams:
LS: Luke Rhodes
P: Rigoberto Sanchez
K: Adam Vinatieri 

 

*names in green are rookies

**names in red are new FAs

 

Any thoughts and critique are welcome. 

[throwing BBZ]

Interesting.
We will roll 50+ M into 2020. JMO

[MikeCurtis]

Thanks for the effort, I always like reading these

 

It fills some holes

 

Jarrett would be good in this defense........  I think its 50/50 if they let him walk

 

I think they make a run at Glow.  He wasnt THAT good to command the big money others are getting

[Maniac]

I love your draft.

 

Would be ecstatic with this.

[hoosierhawk]

Like our FA signings and most of the other FAs although I don't think CB with sign that many. like the draft a lot although question if a few will be there at positions you have us drafting them at.

Love Adderley.

[AZColt11]

I liked it up until the draft.  IF the draft fell like that I would think the Colts would be ecstatic.  However, I think that's a pipe dream.  I see both Wilkins and Harry going well before they are selected at your spots.  Wilkins, I feel, will go top 10, maybe even top 7 or 8.  Harry is a 1st rounder IMHO.  Of course, the draft combine can affect those draft positions, but......I think you have a much better chance of the FA happening and those selections appear doable IMHO.

[Boiler_Colt]

I like it. Love Wilikns and Adderly, not big on Harry  but I think that's good value for him. I doubt Jarret leaves ATL and I doubt we would pay him that much. I would brjng back Glowinski, and if not, look to draft a G/C in the first 3 rounds.

[BOTT]

I wouldnt trust Iupati or slauson to make it through the season.

[richard pallo]

I would make a run at Glow.  If it fails I would sign JuWan James for RT and move Smith to RG.  If we sign Jarrett I would take Harry with our 1st. rd. pick and Josh Jacobs with our 2nd. rd. pick at 34.  Not excited about Iupati.  

[Defjamz26]

I wouldn’t sign an old guard like Iupati. If you draft Risner, Start him at RG. But I like your FA signings, although I don’t think the Falcons let Grady go. They’ll probably let Beasly walk and pay Jarrett. 

 

This is the best draft I’ve seen on the board. All the picks are sensible and good value. Like most I’m not a fan of Harry, but a WR in that spot is perfect.

[BOTT]

Would rather go after Randall Cobb than Williams. Cobb is a true slot who can separate quickly.  And not convinced Williams would be an improvement over Cain/Inman/Harry/insert your favorite prospect here on the outside.

i watched the chargers play a few times this year and frankly didn't notice Williams at all.

[stitches]

Thanks everybody for the input so far. I realize some of the players I drafted probably won't be there in the real draft, but the draft just fell that way in the simulation. "This player or that player will not be there" can be said about pretty much any combination one posts at this time. If it's not those that fall it will be someone else. There is always someone falling. I tried to be at least somewhat realistic - for example Demarkus Lodge could be had in the 5th round for some reason, but I decided that this is more along the lines of unrealistic drop and didn't take him. 

 

About Iupati - I agree it's somewhat risky with his injuries last couple of seasons, but that's why I'm not committing long term money. I think the high end outcomes are worth the risk and I feel like we are covered on multiple fronts in case he gets injured(Risner, Slauson). 

 

About Grady Jarrett... I honestly have no idea what Atlanta is thinking. For all I know they are about to make him a very rich man and blow out of the water what I gave him here.  I guess we will see soon enough. 

 

The thing I'm questioning the most is the Tyrell Williams signing. I kind of feel like some combination of Golden Tate, Randall Cobb, John Brown might be better fit for what we need in YAC and getting open both quickly(Cobb, Tate) and down the field in someone like John Brown... I am rethinking it a bit and some version of it probably will happen in the next edition of my mock. 

[USAFHoosier]

10 hours ago, richard pallo said:

I would make a run at Glow.  If it fails I would sign JuWan James for RT and move Smith to RG.  If we sign Jarrett I would take Harry with our 1st. rd. pick and Josh Jacobs with our 2nd. rd. pick at 34.  Not excited about Iupati.  

Signing James and moving Smith back to guard has been on my mind. 

[Superman]

8 hours ago, stitches said:

About Grady Jarrett... I honestly have no idea what Atlanta is thinking. For all I know they are about to make him a very rich man and blow out of the water what I gave him here.  I guess we will see soon enough. 

 

Where's @Dustin? He called Grady Jarrett the best interior lineman of the 2015 draft, and time has proved him right. If we signed Jarrett, and no one else, I'd be ecstatic. But I can't imagine Atlanta letting him walk. They have a tight cap situation, but I would think they'd restructure a few guys and tag him at $15m/year. He's their best draft pick, and they've had him cheap the last four years, they probably should have extended him early. Maybe they will let him walk, but I think that would be nuts.

 

And I agree with BBZ (been happening a lot lately, either I've gotten smarter or he's gotten dumber, lol) that Ballard won't spend $60m this offseason, especially on outside free agents. I think he has one eye on the new CBA, one eye on his upcoming re-signings for our own draft picks, and is kind of keeping a peripheral awareness of other FAs. He'll keep rolling over $50m, I think.

 

The Williams signing makes sense because of Reich and Sirianni, but I'm not sure he's the right kind of receiver for us. I'd like to have him because I think he's good, but as you know, I want a YAC guy. I'm not looking for us to emulate the Pats, but the value of receivers who make defenders miss and consistently get an extra 3-4 yards is constantly impressed on me when I watch them play. And I think there's a different FA receiver that I'd rather give $10m/year to, who better fits that mold.

 

I also think Iupati and Slauson are the same. I like the Cam Fleming acquisition. And I agree with your retentions. I'm kind of hesitant on some of those RFAs, but the three you tendered are worth keeping. I might try to vet minimum some of the other FAs, like Hewitt, Webb and Wilcox. 

 

Preston Smith does seem like the new Sheard. That's one I don't get. I feel like we already have 3-4 guys who can play that role. 

 

I haven't watched any draft prospects enough to say anything about them, except Renfrow, who I would definitely use a late pick on. 

 

It's draft season now. And I need to get on it if I'm going to produce a full mock before the Combine.

[stitches]

40 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Where's @Dustin? He called Grady Jarrett the best interior lineman of the 2015 draft, and time has proved him right. If we signed Jarrett, and no one else, I'd be ecstatic. But I can't imagine Atlanta letting him walk. They have a tight cap situation, but I would think they'd restructure a few guys and tag him at $15m/year. He's their best draft pick, and they've had him cheap the last four years, they probably should have extended him early. Maybe they will let him walk, but I think that would be nuts.

Yeah. They will need to pick and choose how they keep because their payroll is getting up there. The more I think about it and research it though, it seems like it's more likely than not that they will keep him and let some of the other high end FAs walk. 

 

Quote

And I agree with BBZ (been happening a lot lately, either I've gotten smarter or he's gotten dumber, lol) that Ballard won't spend $60m this offseason, especially on outside free agents. I think he has one eye on the new CBA, one eye on his upcoming re-signings for our own draft picks, and is kind of keeping a peripheral awareness of other FAs. He'll keep rolling over $50m, I think.

 

I do too. This was more of a how I would do it, rather than what Ballard would likely do. I think Ballard will be restrained with the money again. 

 

 

Quote

The Williams signing makes sense because of Reich and Sirianni, but I'm not sure he's the right kind of receiver for us. I'd like to have him because I think he's good, but as you know, I want a YAC guy. I'm not looking for us to emulate the Pats, but the value of receivers who make defenders miss and consistently get an extra 3-4 yards is constantly impressed on me when I watch them play. And I think there's a different FA receiver that I'd rather give $10m/year to, who better fits that mold.

 

Yeah. I think in my next mock I will probably do some combination of Golden Tate, Randall Cobb and John Brown instead of Williams. 

 

Quote

 

I also think Iupati and Slauson are the same. I like the Cam Fleming acquisition. And I agree with your retentions. I'm kind of hesitant on some of those RFAs, but the three you tendered are worth keeping. I might try to vet minimum some of the other FAs, like Hewitt, Webb and Wilcox. 

 

 

 

I think Iupati is much higher end talent and if he stays healthy he is a completely different animal to anything other than Nelson we have on the O-line. I think he's closer to Nelson than he is to the other linemen if he can stay healthy. Big if, but yah... 

 

Quote

 

Preston Smith does seem like the new Sheard. That's one I don't get. I feel like we already have 3-4 guys who can play that role. 

 

 

 

I think he's the same mold but I think he's much more talented and much more athletic. He tested like an elite athlete when he was coming into the league and it's starting to pay off. I also think he's probably a better pass-rusher than Sheard. Also again - Sheard's contract is up after this year and he will be 31. I'd rather have his replacement ready to go on the roster when we ultimately let him go. 

Quote

 

I haven't watched any draft prospects enough to say anything about them, except Renfrow, who I would definitely use a late pick on. 

 

It's draft season now. And I need to get on it if I'm going to produce a full mock before the Combine.

 

Looking forward to seeing your version of a mock off-season. Also... I hope you post some scouting reports on players. Cheers.

[throwing BBZ]

 It will be a good day for me when we sign Geathers to a multi-year deal worth considerably more than your #.

 

Preston Smith has a good shot making it to FA.
I like what i saw watching some game film for what we try to do.
 He has developed into a very strong run defender/edge protector which is more important than ever with these speedy QB's, and he pressures the QB at a very high level. I see him primarily as the rush DE with Turay as his rotational backup.
 With Sheard likely in his final season, and Lewis on the other side. Muhammed was showing some sneaky improvement late.

 

 I am warming to the idea of Roger Saffold at RG if he is available.

 He is better than Glow and should be good for 2+ years. And worth an extra couple Million over Glow at this time.

 

 We are fine with Haeg as our swing tackle. Not that our depth for AC won't weigh heavily.
 Zero % Slauson is back.
  Desir is very valuable in OUR system. But so will Jalen Collins be if his mind is right. What will Ballard think come March? I mean with Moore, Wilson, Collins that is also a very solid base at CB. And i would bet he drafts 2 and signs one depth guy.
  I am LMAO that CB goes with your Sam's. Might as well trade for Antonio Morrison. Gads.

 CB won't count on the draft only to improve out DT position. But i think he will feel confident, one way or another, he can also add a stud potential one come draft day.  Clearly the time and draft to do that is NOW.

 TY plays a lot of Slot! And IMO John Brown won't be on our radar come FA.  Look at him closer, i guess.
 For this early, you did some fine work.
 

[DaveA1102]

Great work @stitches, I initially didn't like to see Al Woods go, as he is a proper leader in that locker room, but the replacements can't be argued with.  If we get Grady Jarrett it will be a real coup but it's out of our hands until Atlanta makes a decision.

 

Also, I just have this unfounded love for Ross Travis and so would hope we could at least keep him on the practice squad, with Alie-Cox doing good work to get ahead of him in the pecking order this year.

[hoosierhawk]

Just thinking and it is not a stretch but the Colts could have two Hookers on the field next year at the same time. Not what some of you might be thinking but I am talking about possibly having two Hookers at safety. Of course we all know Malik but Amani Hooker from Iowa entered the draft and is a really good all around good safety. He is not a thumper like Geathers but plays all over the field. expect to go around the 3 or 4th and I believe he would be a steal. Do like Atterley but not sure he won't be gone in 1st or early 2nd.

[hoosierhawk]

Some info on Amani Hooker from Walters.

/21/19: Hooker was one of the top defensive players in the Big Ten in 2018 and continues Iowa's line of NFL-prospect defensive backs. He played strong safety and dime linebacker for the Hawkeyes in 2018, recording 65 tackles, four interceptions, 3.5 tackles for a loss and seven passes broken up. He had 56 tackles and two interceptions in 2017. Hooker would fit best as a strong safety to start out in his NFL career.

Great character kid also!

[NewColtsFan]

On 1/21/2019 at 3:51 PM, stitches said:

Here my first attempt(it's going to be an aggressive one... more of a what I want to happen than what I think Ballard would do). It is NOT going to be perfect and I probably will make some mistakes with free agency designations(RFAs vs UFAs etc.), assumptions about the price of players etc.. If you see egregious mistakes please don't hesitate to point them out. 

 

I'm using Overthecap's Colts page for salary numbers. I'm using this article for Colts' own free agents.

I will be using spotrac's free agency tracker to find other teams' free agents and if there is market value figure listed, I will try to be close to it, unless I deem it ridiculous for one reason or another. 

For the draft I will be using fanspeak's mock system. I will run it with Matt Millers board, but I will try to take players based on how I feel about the players without trying to cheat the system(for example if a player I have ranked no. 20 is there on the board at 26 and is BPA, but is ranked 77 on Miller's board I will NOT pass on him because I know I can draft him in later rounds, I would consider this cheating the system because I have information that in the real world GMs don't really have). 

 

Starting Team Cap Space: $117,374,480

 

Own Free Agents:

Unrestricted FAs

Pierre Desir, CB 3 years 17M (9M guaranteed, 6 fully guaranteed first year)

Clayton Geathers, SS 1 year 3.5M 

Margus Hunt, DL - 1 year 3M guaranteed

Dontrelle Inman, WR 1 year 5M guaranteed

Mike Mitchell. SS 1 year 2.5M guaranteed

Matt Slauson, OG 1 year 2.0M guaranteed

Adam Vinatieri, K 1 year 3.5M guaranteed

Mark Glowinski, OG - I want to sign him, but IMO he's going to get more than I'm willing to give him so I will let him go
Najee Goode, LB
Ryan Grant, WR
Geneo Grissom, DE
Ryan Hewitt, TE
J'Marcus Webb, OT
JJ Wilcox, SS
Al Woods, DT

 

Restricted FAs

Evan Boehm OC/OG - original-round tender(1 year/2.05M)

Mathias Farley, S - original round tender(1 year/2.05M)

Chester Rogers, WR - original round tender (1 year/2.05M)

Chris Milton -no tender
Corey Moore - no tender
Ross Travis - no tender

 

Exclusive rights FAs

Marcus Johnson, WR 1 year 660K

Luke Rhodes, LB/LS/ST 1 year 660K

 

----------------------Total Spent on Own FAs: $32.97M ||| Remaining Cap Space: $84,404,480

 

Other Teams' FAs:

Preston Smith, DE, 26 years old. 4 years 48M(28M guaranteed, 12M fully guaranteed in the first year)  - here's a young free agent coming off his rookie contract. Ex-2nd round pick. A player who's been improving every year and has shown some exciting things athletically. He is an athletic freak who will fit seamlessly into our aggressive attacking scheme(eventual replacement for Sheard) 

 

Tyrell Williams, WR 27 years old, 3 years 30M(16M guaranteed, 10M fully guaranteed 1st year). 10M a year might seem a bit excessive but IMO he is the best WR on the board and he will get paid because of an overall underwhelming class. He has experience with both Sirianni and Reich and I can see them pushing for him. We need a reliable big receiver who can track and catch the ball in contested situations. We don't really have this type fo receiver right now. He also has some speed which helps him get separation. As you can see I'm targeting young players throughout this mock - he is still only 26 years old too(will turn 27 in couple of weeks). 

 

Mike Iupati, OG 31 years old - 1 year 4M - multiple times pro-bowler and all-pro, Iupati has finished two consecutive years on IR and is getting up there in age, this is why I'm giving him a smaller contract than one might assume for the level of player he is when at 100%. This year he started very shaky after missing almost the full 2017 season, but was gaining steam by week 13 when he suffered an MCL sprain and was placed on IR. I will be willing to take a chance on him returning to his high end play from before his injuries(2017 bicep injury, 2018 MCL - so I don't think they are related). He will be starter/competition for the RG spot on our roster.

 

Grady Jarrett, DT, 26 years old - 5 years/75M (46M guaranteed, 15M guaranteed 1st year) This is the crown jewel of our free agency. I'm not sure Atlanta will let him hit free agency, but if they do, we need to jump on it. He is an elite interior lineman and just had his best season, ranking no. 6 on PFFs interior linemen ranking and a lot of it was due to his exceptional 3d down pass-rush productivity - according to PFF he was ranked 3d in win %(21.8) and 2nd in pass-rush grade (90.1) on 3d downs. Yes, he is undersized but come on. That's the reason he was underdrafted too... at some point his play has to matter more than his 6'0 height. He is one of the better interior linemen and better interior pass-rushers in the league right now and again - he's still just 26! Put him in our either at the nose or at 3tech and unleash him onto opponents. I believe he can even improve his pass-rush productivity when given the license to just go and be aggressive. 

 

Cam Fleming, OT, 26 years old, 1 year/4M - a solid swing tackle/spot starter/depth

 

Justin Coleman, CB 26years old - 2years 8M (5M guaranteed, 4M 1st year) - solid CB for competition/depth... Again... he's still young too, comes from Seattle, just like Desir. 

 

 

Those are the main FA acquisitions. I will give allowance of about 10M more for filling out the roster with several more depth/competition pieces. 

 

And with that said... 

 

----------------------Total Spent on Other Teams' FAs: $59M ||| Remaining Cap Space: $25,404,480

 

And here comes the draft... 

 

Round 1. Pick 26 Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson... here we go. We put together a Clemson interior linemen combo of Grady Jarret and Christian Wilkins. Both of them can rush the passer, both of them can stop the run. This is the off-season we get set at interior DL. 

 

Round 2. Pick 34 N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State. Regulars here know that I'm not Harry's biggest fan but if he falls to the second round, I think the value is solid and I think he provides exactly what we need as a after the catch threat. He's extremely explosive with the ball in his hands - he can make people miss and he can truck over them when needed to get an extra yard or two for a first down. He's very physical at the catch point on contested catches. He completes our receiving core very well. 

 

Round 2. Pick 58 Nasir Adderley, S, Delaware - very physical and aggressive safety, with great technical tackling skills and good in coverage. He is extremely versatile and can play both in the box and single high. Will fit great in our system and will be great complement to Hooker. He might be this year's small school gem, ala Darius Leonard.

 

Round 3, pick 89 Dalton Risner, OT/OG, Kansas State - one of PFF's favorites. Reports are that NFL teams are not as crazy about him as people assumed early in the process. Matt Miller has him pretty low on his board too, but I have to take him here. I'm willing to draft him as a depth/competition/developmental prospect with versatility to play both RT and and guard. He's got a physical and nasty streak in the run game and has good anchor in pass pro. Needs work with his pass set in pass-protection, but overall I think he would be a steal at this point of the draft. He might even push for starting spot sometime during his rookie season. 

 

 Round 4, pick 128 Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma If he was healthy he would go much higher, but a RB with a current ACL injury is likely to fall(and he did in this simulation mock too). He has in spades what Mack is missing the most- contact balance. He has good size and plays with force and power in addition to having a great burst through even the smallest holes. I think he can be a great complement to our stable of young RBs and possibly be even more if he manages to stay healthy. 

 

Round 4, pick 135 Chase Hansen, LB Utah. He's a converted LB(from safety)  and he's a playmaker. Flies all over the field, very rangy. Had impressive 22 tackles for loss and 5 sacks this last year as his first time LB. Comes from zone defense so he will fit well in our Tampa 2. Has to work on getting off blocks better, but that's why you get him in the late 4th. 

 

Round 5, pick 165 Jamel Dean, CB Auburn. Had somewhat of a down year but I still like his physical profile. He is huge and physical! If he gets his hands on you at the LOS and jam you, you are not getting much separation. Might be better fit for man-press scheme, but oh well... at this point of the draft I'm good drafting physical and athletic profile and coaching him up to do what is required in our scheme

 

Round 6, pick 200 Hunter Renfrow, WR, Clemson - great hands, good router runner. Slot receiver in our rotation. 

 

Round 7, pick 242 Joe Dineen, LB, Kansas 

 

 

----------------------Total Spent on Draftees: $10M ||| Remaining Cap Space: $15,404,480

 

Depth chart:

Offense:
QB: Andrew Luck, Jacoby Brissett, Phillip Walker
RB: Marlon Mack, Rodney Anderson, Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins
WR1: TY Hilton, N'Keal Harry, Zach Pascal, Daurice Fountain,  Steve Ishmael
WR2: Tyrell Williams, Deon Cain, Marcus Johnson, Krishawn Hogan
Slot: Dontrelle Inman, Chester Rogers, Hunter Renfrow, James Wright, Jordan Veasy
TE1: Jack Doyle, Mo Alie-Cox
TE2: Eric Ebron, Billy Brown
LT: Anthony Castonzo, Cam Fleming, Le'Raven Clark, Antonio Garcia
LG: Quenton Nelson, Joe Haeg
OC: Ryan Kelly, Evan Boehm
RG: Mike Iupati, Matt Slauson
RT: Braden Smith, Dalton Risner, De'Ondre Wesley

Deffense:
LDE: Jabaal Sheart, Denico Autry, Jihad Ward, Al-Quadin Muhammad
DT: Christian Wilkins, Hassan Ridgeway, Grover Stewart
3T: Grady Jarrett, Margus Hunt, Tyquan Lewis, DeShawn Williams
RDE: Preston Smith, Kemoko Turay, Carroll Phillips
WILL: Darius Leonard, Chase Hansen, Anthony Winbush
MIKE: Anthony Walker Jr., Skai Moore, Joe Dineen
SAM: Matthew Adams, Zaire Franklin
SS: Clayton Geathers, Mike Mitchell, Isaiah Johnson,  Ahmad Thomas
FS: Malik Hooker, Nasir Adderley, Mathias Farley, George Odum, Rolan Milligan
RCB: Quincy Wilson, Jalen Collins, Jamel Dean
LCB: Pierre Desir, Justin Coleman, D.J. Killings
Slot: Kenny Moore II, Nate Hairston

Special teams:
LS: Luke Rhodes
P: Rigoberto Sanchez
K: Adam Vinatieri 

 

*names in green are rookies

**names in red are new FAs

 

Any thoughts and critique are welcome. 

 

My good friend Stiches has asked me to chime in here....     over the years,  I've tried to comment on fewer and fewer of these....    everyone has great fun with them, and I've grown to feel like a Negative Nick or the Get Off My Lawn guy.     No fun for anyone.

 

But since he asked,  I'll offer some thoughts,   starting at the top.

 

Not sure Desir gets 3 years,  but I hope we find a way to keep him at roughly that figure,  maybe a fraction less.

 

Ballard GUSHED about Geathers last week,  I think we'd like him back.  I'm guessing 2-3 years...   so, maybe 3/10-12 with maybe 4 Mill guaranteed.

 

Hunt...  the calendar says he's 31,  but he hasn't played much football in his life so I think his body is still fresh.    I'm guessing 2 years at 8-10m    He played 3 DL spots this year.  Scheme versatility has value.

 

Hope we keep Inman.   Not sure he gets 1-5.   If it's one year, I'm guessing 4 Mill.   Big fan

 

Hope we keep Mitchell.   Great in the position room and locker room.  Good situationally.   A real asset.

 

Slauson.   Huge fan.  I think I'm the guy that first suggested signing to a deal even if we know he can't play anymore.   We put him on IR just to keep him.   Read nothing but GREAT things about him since the season ended.    Invaluable.

 

AV.    Don't think we've ever paid him $3.5.    I suspect he comes back for 1 year and 2.5-3.

 

Glowinski.    Ballard bites the bullett and pays him what he wants to stay.   I don't think he'll be THAT expensive, and I'm guessing he'd like to be a part of what we're building.   He reached his potential with the Colts.    3/13.5-15.

 

Goode.   Just read a great story saying Goode sat next to Leonard on the sidelines and would tell Leonard what Luck was going to do and was almost always right.   Leonard listened.   Also special teams ace.    1 year, 2 million?   

 

Grant,  a favorite a year ago.   But obvious athletic limitations give him a LOW ceiling.   Thanks, but goodbye.

 

Grissom, Webb, Woods I suspect are gone.    JJW,  I don't know enough to know,  but I suspect we'd like to see what we have here.  

 

Hewitt:   Frank Reich can NEVER EVER have enough tight ends.   Did a good job as TE4 and FB.  I think we sign but I don't know if he makes the final 53.

 

Boeham, Farley and Rodgers all seem about right to bring back.  Happy to have all them return.

 

Milton and Coorey Moore I suspect move on.   

 

Ross Travis,  See the Hewitt comment.   Unknown upside, believe we bring back.

 

Marcus Johnson and Rhodes happy to have back.

 

FREE AGENTS:

 

I think Preston Smith is a 3-4 OLB.   Don't see him as a scheme fit.   

 

Tyrell Williams is my offensive free agent Man Crush.   Hope we get him at 3/30.   Suspect it will take a minimum of 4/40 and wouldn't be surprised if he costs even more.    Hopeful.

 

Mike Iupati.   Once upon a time we ALL loved him.   But I think he's got at least one bad knee.   Not sure he could pass a physical.   And since I believe we will bring back Glow,  I don't see this happening.

 

Grady Jarrett.    I'd be thrilled to sign him.   Even at those numbers, though I think the guarantees on too high.    But it's just too hard for me to believe that Atlanta let's him walk at the door and loses him for nothing.    Don't see this happening.

 

Cam Fleming:    Loved and wanted him a year ago.   Would love him this time around.   Think we'd have to go for a 2-year deal to get him.    2/8?

 

Justin Coleman:    Don't know him,  but I'm sure you've done your homework,  I'd be happy to sign off on this.

 

DRAFT PICKS:

 

1-26   Christian Wilkins;   A personal favorite, would love to have him.   Unless there's red flag somewhere,  I don't see him falling to 26.   We'd have to trade up to get him.   Would Ballard do that?     My hunch is....   doubtful.

 

2-34    N'Keal Harry:    Like him,  think he's worth the 34th pick,  but don't see Ballard using this pick on offense.   Think he stays on the defensive side of the ball,  possible second bite at the pass rush apple.

 

2-58.   Nasir Adderly.    Wonder if he's somehow related to the Packers legend Herb Adderly.  Haven't seen that, so I'm guessing no.    Ideally, I think this is where the value meets the pick for an offensive player.    Think WR, OL,  RB or even a TE are all possible here.

 

3-89:   Dalton Risner.    Personally,  not sure I want to use 2 of our first 4 picks on offense,  but if we do,  I'd be fine with this.    Prefer to go defense.

 

4-128:    Rodney Anderson.    If this happens,  I'm popping a bottom of champagne,  and I don't even drink!    But even with his injury,  I don't see him falling this far.    Think he goes in R3 or in R4, but long before our pick.

 

4-135:    Chase Hansen.     Inspired pick.    Utah plays good solid, though football.   Underrated program and sneaky decent talent.    Would be thrilled to get him here.

 

5-165:    Jamel Dean.     A corner in the 5th round.   Be happy to take one.

 

6-200:    Hunter Renfroe.     Two problems here.  One,  I don't see Ballard taking 2 WR's two years in a row.    Not happening.     And two,  I don't see Renfroe lasting until late in the 6th round.   I seem him likely going 4-5 round.

 

7-????   Joe Dineen.    A LB?    Yes please! 

 

I think this is a good effort.    I just don't know how realistic some of the draft picks or free agents are.    No knock on Stiches,  I just find these difficult to discern.  

 

I try not to do these too soon in the off-season.    Just too much unknown information.   Think things will become a little more clear and even obvious once we reach April.    Combine is the last week of Feb and the beginning of March.    Pro Days are all March long into the first week of April.   We'll know more in the three weeks after that leading up to the actual draft.

 

I hope my comments were not too caustic.   I'm not looking to give anyone a hard time on these.  

 

[stitches]

17 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Glowinski.    Ballard bites the bullett and pays him what he wants to stay.   I don't think he'll be THAT expensive, and I'm guessing he'd like to be a part of what we're building.   He reached his potential with the Colts.    3/13.5-15.

 

Hewitt:   Frank Reich can NEVER EVER have enough tight ends.   Did a good job as TE4 and FB.  I think we sign but I don't know if he makes the final 53.

 

Ross Travis,  See the Hewitt comment.   Unknown upside, believe we bring back.

 

 

FREE AGENTS:

 

I think Preston Smith is a 3-4 OLB.   Don't see him as a scheme fit.   

 

Tyrell Williams is my offensive free agent Man Crush.   Hope we get him at 3/30.   Suspect it will take a minimum of 4/40 and wouldn't be surprised if he costs even more.    Hopeful.

 

Mike Iupati.   Once upon a time we ALL loved him.   But I think he's got at least one bad knee.   Not sure he could pass a physical.   And since I believe we will bring back Glow,  I don't see this happening.

 

DRAFT PICKS:

 

 

2-58.   Nasir Adderly.    Wonder if he's somehow related to the Packers legend Herb Adderly.  Haven't seen that, so I'm guessing no.    Ideally, I think this is where the value meets the pick for an offensive player.    Think WR, OL,  RB or even a TE are all possible here.

 

 

I think this is a good effort.    I just don't know how realistic some of the draft picks or free agents are.    No knock on Stiches,  I just find these difficult to discern.  

 

I try not to do these too soon in the off-season.    Just too much unknown information.   Think things will become a little more clear and even obvious once we reach April.    Combine is the last week of Feb and the beginning of March.    Pro Days are all March long into the first week of April.   We'll know more in the three weeks after that leading up to the actual draft.

 

I hope my comments were not too caustic.   I'm not looking to give anyone a hard time on these.  

 

Thanks for your input, Much appreciated. 

 

Some thoughts:

-Glowinski - if he takes 3/13.5 I might be willing to bring him back. IMO he will get more. But lets see... 

-About the TEs... you might be right about them. It's very possible we bring both of them for about minimum. 

-I disagree about Preston Smith. He's not just a 34OLB. He has perfect size for DE in our scheme and the requisite athleticism to excel in it.

-Iupati - indeed if we bring back Glowinski, this signing becomes reduntant

-Nasir Adderley is indeed a cousin to Herb

 

No worries about disagreements. That's why I love the board. It helps me crystallize some of my opinions and get more holistic picture of what is likely and what is not(for example after I posted the thread, I've realized Grady Jarrett is probably not happening - very little chance Atlanta lets him go). 

 

Cheers

[shasta519]

That's a lot of money for Tyrell Williams. WR is definitely a need...but I think the draft is where that will get addressed. And I bet they could find a comparable talent with more upside. I wouldn't even mind a double dip if the value is there (one early, one late). And I think Inman will be back. I would just stay out of the top of this WR FA group..."paying A money for B players" and all that.

 

I think DE becomes a priority for this FA period...if it shakes out how I hope it will. But this is where I hope the Colts go big. There could potentially be 5 of the top 20 or so edge rushers hitting FA. We know that won't happen...but if even 1-2 of them do...Colts should all over it. That would given them more flexibility heading into the draft...knowing they had a starting DE in place.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Colt Overseas]

I think Glowinsku will want more than 3y/15m contract. Kind of like what the Jags did by inflating the WR market with Moncrief, so did the Bucs signing Ryan Jenson to 4 years 42 million, 22 million gaurenteed. And Glowinski might be better. I think Glow has a legit chance of make at least something like 4 years 34 million, but not here in Indy. 

[Superman]

8 hours ago, Colt Overseas said:

I think Glowinsku will want more than 3y/15m contract. Kind of like what the Jags did by inflating the WR market with Moncrief, so did the Bucs signing Ryan Jenson to 4 years 42 million, 22 million gaurenteed. And Glowinski might be better. I think Glow has a legit chance of make at least something like 4 years 34 million, but not here in Indy. 

 

I don't know what will happen, but Jensen was a two year starter at a decent to high level. Glowinski got benched in Seattle, then waived, and then started 9 games for us this year. And while the OL got better around the time Glowinski got on the field for us, I think NFL personnel people recognize that Glowinski didn't save the OL.

 

My personal opinion is Glowinski is being overrated. It might be that some team offers him a big contract, but I don't see it. I'd expect him to get something like 2-3 years, at $5-6m/year. 

[Colt Overseas]

14 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I don't know what will happen, but Jensen was a two year starter at a decent to high level. Glowinski got benched in Seattle, then waived, and then started 9 games for us this year. And while the OL got better around the time Glowinski got on the field for us, I think NFL personnel people recognize that Glowinski didn't save the OL.

 

My personal opinion is Glowinski is being overrated. It might be that some team offers him a big contract, but I don't see it. I'd expect him to get something like 2-3 years, at $5-6m/year. 

 

I wouldnt be surprised if yoir right, and Glowinski gets a contract in that range. That would have him earning a little less than what Zach Fulton got (4y/28m). Fulton was a utility lineman who, played a good bit but his play was too average to lockdown a starting spot. 

 

FWIW I do think the contract you estimate is about right for Glow, I just think inflation will get him around $7m/year. And he is the only starting calibre G on the market under 30, so he will get plenty of interest.

[Colt.45]

I've seen mock drafts (inc. PFF) that have Risner going in the 1st round. Somehow I doubt he's there in round 3.

 

[stitches]

 

I got it about right with Vinny. 

[stitches]

And Glowinski got 3/18. 3/15 was about the limit I was willing to go to, but I guess 3M more is not that far off. I expected him to get more on the open market ... something along the lines of 3/24, so that's why I didn't resign him in this mock. I don't mind it. 

[Superman]

3 hours ago, stitches said:

And Glowinski got 3/18. 3/15 was about the limit I was willing to go to, but I guess 3M more is not that far off. I expected him to get more on the open market ... something along the lines of 3/24, so that's why I didn't resign him in this mock. I don't mind it. 

 

Yeah, if you like him, that extra $1m isn't a deal breaker. Good deal for him, at the upper limits of what I would have been okay with. 

[Freenyfan102]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Yeah, if you like him, that extra $1m isn't a deal breaker. Good deal for him, at the upper limits of what I would have been okay with. 

Wasn't he on the practice squad of the Seahawks

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, Freenyfan102 said:

Wasn't he on the practice squad of the Seahawks

 

Maybe at some point. But we claimed him off waivers.

[Freenyfan102]

Seahawks are kicking themselves in the butt now since they don't have a Line