Why draft another Edge Rusher?

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20 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

 

Our late 2nd rounders have as much if not more upside than the projected late first rounders. I don’t think Allen, Sweat, Ferguson, Gary, etc... have any more upside than Turray and Lewis. Of the bunch, Gary is the only one who has special traits because of his elite athleticism, but he’s not really an edge rusher. Allen has no clear position fit either but doesn’t have Turray or Lewis’ athleticism. Sweat is long but is reportedly only 241. He’s got Turray’s length and is more polished with his hands and moves, but he lacks the first step explosion and elite athleticism Turray showed. Now if he comes out at the senior bowl and combine and shows more, he’s the one guy in the group I’d get behind, but as for now I don’t see it. 

 

But it do we really want another developmental edge prospect for a first? Another guy who needs to bulk up and add play strength? Do the Colts need to spend a first on an edge rusher that doesn’t have a high floor and ceiling? I don’t think so, which is why I don’t see why they would draft an edge there. Rounds 2-7 sure. But if Im taking an edge in the 1st I want a Bosa, Josh Allen, or Ferell. Guys I know are the complete package and Can start/play a lot of snaps right away. BPA for sure but currently I don’t see those guys having better grades than some of the WRs and DTs that will be there.

Sweat just measured at  6'6" 252 and 35 and 5/8ths inches arms at the Senior Bowl. 

[stitches]

17 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

That's a more specific discussion about this year's prospects, and I can't really speak to that yet. But that's a different story. If you don't think the prospects that will be on the board at #26 are good enough prospects to be picked there, then yeah, don't draft them at #26. I fully agree with that.

 

But I get the feeling you'll get pushback on some of those guys; it sounds like a lot of people think Sweat is a top 15 kind of guy.

 

 

To the bolded, no, probably not. But developing prospects is how you build a good, deep roster through the draft. I don't mind a developmental guy if I think he has a high ceiling, but again, that's based on a sincere evaluation of the player. I'm not so worried about the "right away" part of it if I think he's a good prospect and my board says it's the right time to take him.

 

I will add that edge rushers get the headlines, but interior rushers are more valuable, so I agree with a DT there.

 

I've been saying lately that I'm cool on Day 1 receivers, based on trends and what I want in a receiver. I think the technicians and the quicksters at receiver are more abundant on Day 2. 

 

And I'm almost always in favor a trade back, in the name of maximizing value.

IMO if you are drafting EDGE rushers you are not drafting them for year 1. This is ESPECIALLY true if you are drafting him in round 1. If you are spending a round 1 pick on EDGE you expect to give him big second contract(this this is more about years 2-9) than it is about his rookie year. To me being ready year 1 is a welcome bonus, not a primary consideration. 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

IMO if you are drafting EDGE rushers you are not drafting them for year 1. This is ESPECIALLY true if you are drafting him in round 1. If you are spending a round 1 pick on EDGE you expect to give him big second contract(this this is more about years 2-9) than it is about his rookie year. To me being ready year 1 is a welcome bonus, not a primary consideration. 

 

Yup. This pervasive myth that a first round pick has to be a starter in Year 1 is problematic, IMO. 

 

But I would still like my first rounder to have a high ceiling, like defjamz says. That applies to anyone I'm drafting in the first two days, to be honest. 

[jskinnz]

22 hours ago, richard pallo said:

With so many pass rushers about to hit FA one option could be to trade for one with our 1st. pick.  Get the contract agreed to ahead of time like the Mack deal.  Maybe Clark, Flowers or Jarett could be acquired.  Get the proven talent vs. the unknown.

 

What you are suggesting is not possible.  A FA about to hit the market in 2 months cannot be traded.  

 

The way the Colts would get the guys you listed would be through free agency.  

[throwing BBZ]

23 hours ago, DougDew said:

I said I think short, quick, edge rushers are overrated, and mentioned the Pats because they have never seemed to value them over the past 15 years.  Not sure who you're lecturing to about all of that other stuff . 

 

 "I've never seen a small Pats edge rusher, IIRC."
 Come on man.
 I mean it is hilarious Doug,  because they have one NOW. He was the 4th highest graded Edge in the NFL.  
We will see how much B Values him, soon, very soon.

 And Belicheck signed the 6'3" Sheard as a free agent. 
 Ninkovich was 6'2 and played many years. Just saying.
 
 And my "lecture" was just adding to the discussion going on.
I do hope you understood it, and will respect if you have disagreement.
 NE does play a base 3-4 i believe which has relied on the surprise of which OLB will be the pass rusher. And yes a number of them have been taller/lengthy.

Good point.
 And i too see the edge in our 4-3 best suited for a powerful, long armed player that controls his edge and defends the run very well. Need to keep these mobile QB`s in the pocket and be able to chase them well. Sheard does this well, but i expect Ballard wants even better ASAP.
 It is why i like the tape of Preston Smith. he surprised me.
And why i like Jaylen Ferguson. #35 on D Jeremiah's top 50. worth a look fans
 And i am all for going up to Miami at 13 if they desire Brissett.
 I am sending mojo to Miami...  because We Must get that Interior D Lineman.
      Brissett Brissett Brissett Miami YOU MUST HAVE  Brissett    

[richard pallo]

1 hour ago, jskinnz said:

 

What you are suggesting is not possible.  A FA about to hit the market in 2 months cannot be traded.  

 

The way the Colts would get the guys you listed would be through free agency.  

Didn't know that.  I'm surprised really.  The team with his rights can only sign him, Franchise him or let him walk.  Not too much flexibility for them.  The player misses out on a long term contract versus a one year tag.  Risking injury in the tag year.  I wonder what the big difference is between the time Mack was traded and FA approaching now.  At least the Raiders received value.  

[DougDew]

24 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 "I've never seen a small Pats edge rusher, IIRC."
 Come on man.
 I mean it is hilarious Doug,  because they have one NOW. He was the 4th highest graded Edge in the NFL.  
We will see how much B Values him, soon, very soon.

 And Belicheck signed the 6'3" Sheard as a free agent. 
 Ninkovich was 6'2 and played many years. Just saying.
 
 And my "lecture" was just adding to the discussion going on.
I do hope you understood it, and will respect if you have disagreement.
 NE does play a base 3-4 i believe which has relied on the surprise of which OLB will be the pass rusher. And yes a number of them have been taller/lengthy.

Good point.
 And i too see the edge in our 4-3 best suited for a powerful, long armed player that controls his edge and defends the run very well. Need to keep these mobile QB`s in the pocket and be able to chase them well. Sheard does this well, but i expect Ballard wants even better ASAP.
 It is why i like the tape of Preston Smith. he surprised me.
And why i like Jaylen Ferguson. #35 on D Jeremiah's top 50. worth a look fans
 And i am all for going up to Miami at 13 if they desire Brissett.
 I am sending mojo to Miami...  because We Must get that Interior D Lineman.
      Brissett Brissett Brissett Miami YOU MUST HAVE  Brissett    

That's fine.  Flowers is short.  So the word never is the wrong word.  I should have said NE has had one short successful edge rusher in the past 15 years.

 

My overall point is that Mathis and Freeney has sort of made a lot of folks forget about length in terms of pass rusher.  Dee Ford, Shane Ray, Vic Beasley, etc were probably all overdrafted because Mathis broke the mold.  I'm simply saying that I prefer to adhere to the mold if I'm going to invest pick 26 or 34 in an edge rusher.  And if the only thing small guys like Dee Ford can do is to run around the OT with no power or bend, then it takes too long to get to the QB and I prefer an interior rush.

 

And before some smart aleck claims that I said I only care about length/height, its obvious the player needs to have the other attributes too.

[Colts_Fan12]

On 1/21/2019 at 6:22 AM, Defjamz26 said:

I understand that a lot of fans here want us to take an edge rusher at 26 and if not there, then the next round, but I’m not seeing the value nor the reason. I’m looking at it based on where we will be drafting 

 

The top edge rushers in this game are Bosa, Ferrell, and Allen. They’re going top 10. The next tier of guys are Polite and Burns, who most sites have going between picks 10-20. After that there’s a significant drop off, and the next guy’s are Montez Sweat, Jaylon Ferguson, Zach Allen, etc... But each of those guys have huge flaws in their game and questionable traits. The one thing that analysts mention with all 3 is a lack of athleticism and an inability to bend around an OT. None of them seem like they’re going to come in and immediately give you sack protection 

 

The other issue I see is too many mouths to feed. A scout on TDN said that the Colts just drafted 2 Edge rushers in the 2nd round last year, so they should let them develop more. I agree. Plus we still have Sheard, and Autry who is a hybrid DE/DT. Unless someone like Ferrell slips, there isn’t anyone to draft that’ll produce immediately. All the guys I listed are developmental picks much like Lewis and Turray. So unless they break out unexpectedly, you’d be drafting like a 3rd or 4th string DE. I know Ballard has said you can never have enough pass rushers, but I don’t see the point in drafting one early in 2019. 

 

We neef to focus on interior pass rushers. But even then, you have Autry who is a pro-bowl alternate starting at one DT spot. He’s still young too.

I'm 100% on the interior pass rusher train. I believe kemoko will be a stud with some added weight and more practice in stopping the run.

[throwing BBZ]

13 minutes ago, DougDew said:

That's fine.  Flowers is short.  So the word never is the wrong word.  I should have said NE has had one short successful edge rusher in the past 15 years.

 

My overall point is that Mathis and Freeney has sort of made a lot of folks forget about length in terms of pass rusher.  Dee Ford, Shane Ray, Vic Beasley, etc were probably all overdrafted because Mathis broke the mold.  I'm simply saying that I prefer to adhere to the mold if I'm going to invest pick 26 or 34 in an edge rusher.  And if the only thing small guys like Dee Ford can do is to run around the OT with no power or bend, then it takes too long to get to the QB and I prefer an interior rush.

 

And before some smart aleck claims that I said I only care about length/height, its obvious the player needs to have the other attributes too.

 

 I have posted here that the "Freeney Hole" was the easiest 5 yards in the history of the NFL. Love all the moves, but we played from the lead so he could run wild.

 He will make the Hall of Fame because of who he played with.  Oh well.
 Ford got to the QB second best this season. But no doubt also part of the reason they were weak against the run.
 Bel was blitzing and stunting into Mahommes face. That is the $$$ move in this NFL. 
 

[Superman]

32 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Didn't know that.  I'm surprised really.  The team with his rights can only sign him, Franchise him or let him walk.  Not too much flexibility for them.  The player misses out on a long term contract versus a one year tag.  Risking injury in the tag year.  I wonder what the big difference is between the time Mack was traded and FA approaching now.  At least the Raiders received value.  

 

They can tag him then trade him. Khalil Mack was still one year away from being tagged, but was on his fifth year option.

[DougDew]

26 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 I have posted here that the "Freeney Hole" was the easiest 5 yards in the history of the NFL. Love all the moves, but we played from the lead so he could run wild.

 He will make the Hall of Fame because of who he played with.  Oh well.
 Ford got to the QB second best this season. But no doubt also part of the reason they were weak against the run.
 Bel was blitzing and stunting into Mahommes face. That is the $$$ move in this NFL. 
 

But I think Chris Jones is the stud of that dline.  JMO.

[Moosejawcolt]

On 1/21/2019 at 8:13 AM, twfish said:

hmmmmm... if i recall correctly Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis both had pretty stellar careers and disrupted and changed several games. Players like Von miller and Joey Bosa would heavily disagree with you as well

Agreed. However, when the Broncos had Miller and Ware and went to the super bowl.  It was their interior pressure made them unbelievable. Fly around the end and Brady stepped up in the pocket and DTs  were there with a great push.  I would rather have a great interior lineman then a around the corner D end. Qbs r getting rid of the ball so quickly. 

[Defjamz26]

22 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Yup. This pervasive myth that a first round pick has to be a starter in Year 1 is problematic, IMO. 

 

But I would still like my first rounder to have a high ceiling, like defjamz says. That applies to anyone I'm drafting in the first two days, to be honest. 

I think it’s a recent trend. But I think it holds true to players drafted top 10. Those guys should all be starters. But from picks 11-32 it really depends. If you’re drafting a guy in the 1st who ends up being a position of need then he should be starting. For example, if the Steelers take a CB like Greedy in the 1st, he should be starting year one considering how bad their CB play is. Now let’s say the Steelers draft Dalton Risner in the 1st. He doesn’t have to start year 1 because they have a solid line. They can wait until another player they don’t want to pay hits FA to start him.

 

Its all circumstantial when it comes to first round players being starters. How high was he drafted? Is it a position at a big need? How much development does he need? Does he need to play to develop?

[shasta519]

On 1/21/2019 at 10:07 AM, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Trey Flowers is 6'2".       Just a #4 90 grade this season. It is more than sacks kiddo.
 Pressure Pressure Pressure
  The o-line can adjust to having just one or two to worry about. We need the whole line to be able to pressure the QB.
 And Lewis isn't athletic enough to be a quality pass rusher outside. Although i do see him as being able to take snaps where Sheard does now. And snaps inside as Ballard says. And as much as i respect Sheard as a solid player, he just doesn't quite get it done. Maybe if he had a Stud beside him he would. And pass rushers, quality players NEED time to develop. Typically into the 3rd year. Even top 10 picks, if they prove out at all. 
 So the truth is we have ONE pass rusher in development, one tweener interior pass rusher, and ....  So there is much work to be done up front.

 

Agree. I think people need to give up on this idea that Lewis is going to be a legit edge rusher. Ain't happening...especially with the injuries. I think his role will be a DT in their "green" packages...where they try to get their four best pass rushers on the field at one time. Lewis could be one of those at DT...but not at DE.

 

I think the approach should be...Colts have Autry and some solid rotational pieces...but need starters.

[throwing BBZ]

On 1/22/2019 at 6:18 PM, DougDew said:

But I think Chris Jones is the stud of that dline.  JMO.

 

 He is a bad man. Turning in to one of THE BEST.