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Mel Kiper's 2019 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

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I'd be 108% okay with Dex Lawrence, the dude is a monster. He's that 3T that the Colts need, so why not. The odds that Ballard doesn't address the defense with that 1st pick are are somewhere around 0%. I really like Montez Sweat, feel like he's gonna be a great player at the next level. 

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I prefer this mock draft alot more than i do PFF's, they seemed to more so do a run on positions.

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I approve this post! Haha.

 

 giphy.gif

 

I wish I knew as much about football as the various draft gurus and even many of the great members we have here on the forum. This time of year blows me away with the amount knowledge some of you have not just on NFL but college football as well. I struggle to keep up with the Colts roster and there are guys here who know about division 2 prospects who might be taken in the 6th round. I enjoy looking at the various mock drafts and then looking the players up. Football season never ends!

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1 hour ago, twfish said:

I prefer this mock draft alot more than i do PFF's, they seemed to more so do a run on positions.

I think runs on positions tend to happen though.  Ballard said it happened last year with G.  He implied that he took Smith at 37 because he didn't think Smith would still be there at 49.  49 was probably a little closer to his value according to most mock's at the time.

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5 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think runs on positions tend to happen though.  Ballard said it happened last year with G.  He implied that he took Smith at 37 because he didn't think Smith would still be there at 49.  49 was probably a little closer to his value according to most mock's at the time.

 

How about that run on Williams's near the top?  I guess the Giants couldn't find another guy named Williams haha

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I’m all for best player available since we’re picking in the bottom half. I would also like one more OLineman

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6 minutes ago, a06cc said:

I’m all for best player available since we’re picking in the bottom half. I would also like one more OLineman

Agreed on both counts. I wouldn't mind getting someone like DeAndre Baker if he's BPA or Kelvin Harmon, even though they aren't premium positions. At 26, I want a guy ranked in Ballard's top 20 who falls. That's my main goal in the first round.

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1 hour ago, Mel Kiper's Hair said:

I approve this post! Haha.

 

 giphy.gif

 

I wish I knew as much about football as the various draft gurus and even many of the great members we have here on the forum. This time of year blows me away with the amount knowledge some of you have not just on NFL but college football as well. I struggle to keep up with the Colts roster and there are guys here who know about division 2 prospects who might be taken in the 6th round. I enjoy looking at the various mock drafts and then looking the players up. Football season never ends!

Shut up Spock, we're rescuing you!

 

Why thank you, Captain McCoy.

 

My favorite scene from my favorite episode. Thank for posting!

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1 hour ago, DougDew said:

I think runs on positions tend to happen though.  Ballard said it happened last year with G.  He implied that he took Smith at 37 because he didn't think Smith would still be there at 49.  49 was probably a little closer to his value according to most mock's at the time.

 

And I have no problem with that.

Sometimes 'reaching' is in the eye of the beholder, and a good GM knows much better than us.

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2 hours ago, buccolts said:

 

And I have no problem with that.

Sometimes 'reaching' is in the eye of the beholder, and a good GM knows much better than us.

I was showing that professional GMs probably get scared when a position they want starts having a run.  Not that Ballard was, but the run itself occurred because they were getting antsy about filling a need.  So I think the PFF mock draft referenced might be more realistic.

 

I assume if DTs start flying off the board, we can expect guys to get drafted higher than what all the pre-draft hype was saying.  GMs are human too.

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Yeah I’d rather have Wilkins over Lawrence. He’s a better leader and fits this defense better. Has more pass rush ability too. 

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8 hours ago, DougDew said:

I think runs on positions tend to happen though.  Ballard said it happened last year with G.  He implied that he took Smith at 37 because he didn't think Smith would still be there at 49.  49 was probably a little closer to his value according to most mock's at the time.

Good example. From 20 to 37, 6 players were selected who would play either guard or center. I started looking around for some interesting examples, 2016 jumped out: After the Browns took Corey Coleman at 16, we then saw receivers go 21, 22, and 23! Then same draft, we had 5 linebackers go between 33 and 42(and if you extend it 33 to 53 you have 7 linebackers picked).

 

 

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11 hours ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

I'd be 108% okay with Dex Lawrence, the dude is a monster. He's that 3T that the Colts need, so why not. The odds that Ballard doesn't address the defense with that 1st pick are are somewhere around 0%. I really like Montez Sweat, feel like he's gonna be a great player at the next level. 

Dexter Lawrence is 340 pounds. He’s not a 3T. He’s a NT in an even or odd front. Wilkins is a true 3T and is a perfect fit for the defense. Lawrence could play the nose for us, but he doesn’t have the pass rush ability to do anything other than that.

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19 hours ago, IrishColt said:

Who the hell is Mel Kiper anyways?!?

 

1857881198_maxresdefault(1).jpg.c0467b261546569eeed30164049b72a3.jpg

 

Hey now! Let's not bring that up! Haha. That moment is one of the reasons the NFL Draft is so popular today. 

 

 

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18 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Dexter Lawrence is 340 pounds. He’s not a 3T. He’s a NT in an even or odd front. Wilkins is a true 3T and is a perfect fit for the defense. Lawrence could play the nose for us, but he doesn’t have the pass rush ability to do anything other than that.

 

Thanks.

 

You beat me to it.     Life is hectic out here, and I couldn't make this post until now.    But what you wrote is exactly what I would've.   

 

Appreciate you doing it.      :thmup:

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My bad guys, I was definitely thinking of Christian Wilkins. Clemson has too many NFL-bound DTs lol, its confusing. Word on the street tho is that Dex is attempting to lose 10-15 lbs to add more speed to his game, so possibly a 1T-3T double whammy? He will never be fast enough for 5T, but who's expecting him to be?

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I like Wilkins a tad bit more (pass rush being the main thing), but honestly, if both him and Lawrence are somehow available at 26, I will literally be happy with either.

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On 1/17/2019 at 11:55 AM, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

I'd be 108% okay with Dex Lawrence, the dude is a monster. He's that 3T that the Colts need, so why not. The odds that Ballard doesn't address the defense with that 1st pick are are somewhere around 0%. I really like Montez Sweat, feel like he's gonna be a great player at the next level. 

I agree. The idea that he takes a receiver there is unbelievable to me. Deep receiver class that will run well into the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Defensive line is deep but going fast and furiously this year. If we can snag one of those guys, there shouldn't even be a hesitation. 

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The WalterFootball Mock has the Colts taking WR DK Metcalf, ILB Mack Wilson, WR Nkeal Harry, then RB Mike Weber lol...no. Never gonna happen. Offensive skill players with 3 of our first 4 picks? Does this guy know Chris Ballard? Lol. I'm not opposed to them drafting offensive players obviously, but that's a little much, and there's zero chance that Harry makes it into the 3rd round. 

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12 hours ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

I agree. The idea that he takes a receiver there is unbelievable to me. Deep receiver class that will run well into the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Defensive line is deep but going fast and furiously this year. If we can snag one of those guys, there shouldn't even be a hesitation. 

Absolutely agree!

 

The biggest hole on this team IMHO....... pass rush

 

We had a "weak" WR group and it still was a top passing attack

 

If we could put Moore on a stretching machine and make him 6'6" we would HAVE the best DE  :)

 

Last year we put 2 of 3 first picks toward OL, we also brought in 3 or 4 FA OL (too lazy to look up)

 

I would be VERY surprised if we didnt get the same focus this coming draft on DL

 

2 of 3.....  sounds right..... AND... 2-3 FA DL would seem to be a correct approach 

 

I would STILL like to get a WR (Butler please) 

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42 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

Absolutely agree!

 

The biggest hole on this team IMHO....... pass rush

 

We had a "weak" WR group and it still was a top passing attack

 

If we could put Moore on a stretching machine and make him 6'6" we would HAVE the best DE  :)

 

Last year we put 2 of 3 first picks toward OL, we also brought in 3 or 4 FA OL (too lazy to look up)

 

I would be VERY surprised if we didnt get the same focus this coming draft on DL

 

2 of 3.....  sounds right..... AND... 2-3 FA DL would seem to be a correct approach 

 

I would STILL like to get a WR (Butler please) 

 

He'll get a good receiver or two.. no doubt. It will be a much improved unit next season. 

 

But Ballard has made it clear this team will be built from the interior and out. That means his focus is on the trenches. This defensive line class is stupid good. 

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1 hour ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

This defensive line class is stupid good. 

 

.........Audience claps

 

Thats why you DONT go WR in round 1

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Go Defense in round 1. 

Being a Hawkeye fan, id love to pick up Noah Fant in round 2. He's a 6'4 target with a 42inch vertical. That could be used downfield. Blew my mind how little he was used in Iowa's scheme this past season. I know there's Ebrom and Doyle already. I am biased but, would love this guy in Colts blue. If he can fall to us in the 2nd round. 

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On 1/17/2019 at 10:29 PM, Defjamz26 said:

Dexter Lawrence is 340 pounds. He’s not a 3T. He’s a NT in an even or odd front. Wilkins is a true 3T and is a perfect fit for the defense. Lawrence could play the nose for us, but he doesn’t have the pass rush ability to do anything other than that.

Yup. If Wilkins is still on the board, he'd be a great fit. 

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10 minutes ago, HarryTheCat said:

Yup. If Wilkins is still on the board, he'd be a great fit. 

Cross your fingers......

 

I am starting a rumor today that he is a locker room cancer :)

 

No one will touch him

 

 

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10 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

 

.........Audience claps

 

Thats why you DONT go WR in round 1

You go BPA. If that’s a WR than so be it. 

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2 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

You go BPA. If that’s a WR than so be it. 

 

I dont know.....  what about the pass rush?

 

No Pass Rush = Playoff loss

 

 

What if BPA is QB? What if BPA is a CB?

 

A somewhat "tailored" BPA seems to be better

 

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1 hour ago, MikeCurtis said:

 

I dont know.....  what about the pass rush?

 

No Pass Rush = Playoff loss

 

 

What if BPA is QB? What if BPA is a CB?

 

A somewhat "tailored" BPA seems to be better

 

That’s a short sighted way to view things. Several factors contribute to a playoff loss. You could also look at the fact the no one besides Hilton being able to consistently get open as a factor for the loss against the Chiefs. 

 

And yes BPA has some restrictions. The Colts aren’t going to draft another QB in the first round for awhile. But they also aren’t going to overrate a guy for need. Ballard has said so in the past. He’ll go BPA based on his board. If there are two players on his board that are rated equally or close enough, he’ll go with the need. 

 

So if our pick rolls rolls around and A.J. Brown is the highest rated player on his board and Montez Sweat has a noticeably lower grade, he’s drafting Brown.

 

Drafting a pass rusher early doesn’t guarantee anything.

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3 hours ago, Zoltan said:

 

Bucky Brooks has us taking Kelvin Harmon WR NC State 

 

Here's a write up on him https://thedraftnetwork.com/2019/01/04/2019-nfl-draft-player-profile-kelvin-harmon/

I’m fine with any of those guys that get mocked around that pick. Brown, Metcalf, or Harmon. Late 20s is where the receivers went last year, and that’s about where the top ones from this draft should go too. At 26, you’re really looking at fringe 1st/2nd round guys anyways. You’re more likely to get a top WR than you are a top D-lineman there if you think about it. 

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1 hour ago, MikeCurtis said:

I could see BPA of 

 

DE

DT

S

OT

LB

 

 

 

 

 

 

Got to add WR to that list. If BPA is a stud WR you take him. It’s a serious team need. 

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Who knows? The league year, and therefore FA, kicks off way before the NFL Draft, so there could be several need areas patched before the draft. I'd say if any of the bigger FA defensive players end up hitting the market, Ballard and Co. will take a long hard look. Hypothetically, the Colts could land Clowney and Landon Collins, or Frank Clark and Clinton-Dix...that would leave a lot more real estate for the offensive skill positions in the draft. Man...this is gonna be fun lol, and it could also go the other way. We could land Lev and possibly Golden Tate or William's from SD, giving us more ability to draft defensively. One thing I know for certain is that Ballard/Reich and anyone else associated with the Colts braintrust have an excellent blueprint drawn up, and I have 100% faith that they will put us in the best position to improve next season. 

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Again........  I have no crystal ball.......I have been wrong before....... he might go kicker in the first round :(

 

but

 

Ballard has said again and again.........Build the lines FIRST

 

I believe that this tips his hand on how HE tailors his BPA list

 

We needed to do an overall upgrade on the OL for 3 of 5 spots

The OL line was in shambles.  

 

Last year I was wanting us to pick up Tremaine Edwards or Ward.

 

But....... we went with OL....... kinda boring, but he followed his motto of build the lines first....... it was the right move then

 

He focused on OL with 2 of 3 last year And this year?  If your motto is build the lines first........  you build the lines first

 

This draft is supposed to have more DL talent than normal

 

If you are drafting 6th, there should always be a decent DL player, but we are at 26th.

In normal years there are 5-6 blue chip DE/DTs........ this year, maybe 8-9

 

The odds of getting a pass rushing DE or DT (WE NEED BOTH) that can contribute

immediately in the second round get worse with every pick

 

In FA....... you pay BIG for pass rush DE/DT that this defense needs to be successful

(I think it will be slim pickings)

 

Thats why I think you have to lean on the draft for DE / DT talent

 

I sure hope he doesn't go WR in the first round. I wont cry if he does. 

 

There should be some excellent WR talent available in round 2 though

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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