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chad72

Teams like 2013 Seahawks and 2015 Broncos aren’t going to happen as often

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The last 3 SBs have featured a Top 3 or 4 offense in the SB. The winning teams scored at least 28 in regulation. If you don’t account for the Broncos SB, teams since the 2012 Ravens have scored 28 or more as SB winner.

 

Its hard to expect or assemble a shut down D anymore, you have to build it around offense with the QB and an OL emphasis and opportunistic defense. 

 

Top 4 scoring teams are in the championship games. That should tell Ballard something, or at least a little bit of Polian madness with skill positions might be apt for the current times.

 

Teams like 2013 Seahawks and 2015 Broncos were Top 5 historically good Ds, a combination of right draft picks and good FAs, hard to get that right in order to compete year in and year out.

 

Thoughts???

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1 hour ago, chad72 said:

The last 3 SBs have featured a Top 3 or 4 offense in the SB. The winning teams scored at least 28 in regulation. If you don’t account for the Broncos SB, teams since the 2012 Ravens have scored 28 or more as SB winner.

 

Its hard to expect or assemble a shut down D anymore, you have to build it around offense with the QB and an OL emphasis and opportunistic defense. 

 

Top 4 scoring teams are in the championship games. That should tell Ballard something, or at least a little bit of Polian madness with skill positions might be apt for the current times.

 

Teams like 2013 Seahawks and 2015 Broncos were Top 5 historically good Ds, a combination of right draft picks and good FAs, hard to get that right in order to compete year in and year out.

 

Thoughts???

I wouldn’t imply that the analytics aren’t in your favor, but there was way too much good defense in the second half of the season around the league which stifled the new age offenses a plenty.

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Don't kid ourselves, we need to get pressure with our D linemen.

For a 4-3 defense to excel, it depends on the linemen to get after

the QB, otherwise good QB's will pick it apart.

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19 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

I wouldn’t imply that the analytics aren’t in your favor, but there was way too much good defense in the second half of the season around the league which stifled the new age offenses a plenty.

 

True.

 

However, in order to get a high seed, the offense gives you plenty of equity with winning games early on even if it stumbles later against desperate teams, which seems to happen every year to top seeds (Saints, Rams, Patriots, Chiefs this year all lost games after thanksgiving). Even in our SB winning year, we started 9-0 but finished 3-4 to finish 12-4. By offense, I meant an offense with balance, not everything in the hands of the QB. 

 

The balance and opportunistic D still wins championships but there needs to be a high floor for offense in the current NFL, that is what I was getting at. You have to be able to get to that 24-30 point range consistently against playoff teams in the current NFL to stand a chance, at home or on the road. Even the Peyton led teams, that sometimes did not have the balance on O, couldn't do that consistently.

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You still need both. The reason thd bears and ravens lost is because all there playmakers are on defense. You still need to be balanced. The broncos had Peyton so I would say they were balanced on offense and defense.

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I absolutely understand your point. I think you are correct in the fact that being able to score consistently is paramount in this league. However I don't think the Defense is less effective/ important. I think its more positional based.

Pass Rush is equally important to having a good RB or WR. If you can create consitant pressure, you can win any game.

But it's very clear to me that we need 2-4 new, better playmakers on offense. I'm also curious as to how we handle the offensive line. Do we move Braden back to guard and draft a new tackle?  Do we keep the line the same and draft guys to compete at those spots? That's my only big question mark on offense as far as what the teams plan is.

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I read somewhere where coaches in today's modern NFL don't really think you can build a team that can totally shut down modern offenses. Instead defenses need to be really good at forcing turnovers. I actually agree with that. A good offense and an opportunistic defense is how you will win more often than not in today's game.

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I think it's like this:  you want a relatively balanced team to stay consistent and survive a 16 game schedule, but once you get to the playoffs, you better be prepared to shoot it out.  To get through the final three - through the Chiefs, Pats, Saints, Rams, etc. - you need weapons.  You have to match scores, otherwise it could be over quickly.

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Someone will figure out a way to slow down these offenses just as these offense figured out how to beat those defenses.  That’s the great thing about football. It’s always changing.  What worked one year isn’t promised to work the next.

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With the rules, the coaching hires, with the college game creeping more and more into the NFL, it's all going to offense. 

 

As for the rules, the NFL sent a letter to the players, saying, after somewhat of a moratorium, the helmet calls will be back in full force next year.  Hopefully all the crazy roughing the passer calls we saw early on don't also return.  

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11 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

True.

 

However, in order to get a high seed, the offense gives you plenty of equity with winning games early on even if it stumbles later against desperate teams, which seems to happen every year to top seeds (Saints, Rams, Patriots, Chiefs this year all lost games after thanksgiving). Even in our SB winning year, we started 9-0 but finished 3-4 to finish 12-4. By offense, I meant an offense with balance, not everything in the hands of the QB. 

 

The balance and opportunistic D still wins championships but there needs to be a high floor for offense in the current NFL, that is what I was getting at. You have to be able to get to that 24-30 point range consistently against playoff teams in the current NFL to stand a chance, at home or on the road. Even the Peyton led teams, that sometimes did not have the balance on O, couldn't do that consistently.

I think you’re right overall and the numbers support it.  I think we’ll still find exceptions with the occasional hot defense and playoff weather.  The 2015 Broncos probably make it thru this year.  But who knows.

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We lost this game because we got blown off of both lines, offensive

and defensive. Maybe it was the extra week off but the Chief's really

put it on us for sure.

 

The roster obviously has more holes than we realized but I'm sure

Ballard will figure it out in the offseason.

 

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i agree its about offense now.  people that like old school defensive football probably wont want to admit it

 

the great offenses are still alive, while the defenses are at home

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