Reality check

[Finball]

 

17 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Please cite said stats, are you referring to preseason SOS or an after the fact assessment? 

 

Because if it's before the fact we didn't in fact have the easiest SOS:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-nfl-strength-of-schedule-texans-have-it-easiest-packers-face-roughest-ride/

 

In fact are schedule before the season was as "easy" as the Pats. 

 

Besides there's arguments that SOS is not the best way to look at these things:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-way-everybody-measures-nfl-schedule-strength-its-wrong/

 

 

 

[Myles]

15 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I just don't like when people bring up schedule is to why a team has a good record. In college it makes sense because some college teams do play a lot of weak teams. Most teams in the NFL only play maybe 2 Elite teams at most, a few good one's, a few average one's, and a few bad one's. What people say about the Colts, I could say about almost every other team. Look at the Pats schedule, who did they play? Chiefs are the only Elite team, they played us but when they did TY, Leonard, AC were all out. Their Division was awful too.

I didn't mean it as much for the record as I did for the confidence level.  

[DraftMaster]

Yeah we don't know if the Jags get a good QB yet, or if the Steelers trade AB, or if Jameis Winston finally reaches his potential. On the other hand who will the injury bug strike next year? There are so many variables that we really don't know the strength of our 2019 schedule...

[masterlock]

18 hours ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

Stats showed the Colts had the easiest strength of schedule of any team in the league this season and any of the last three years for that matter. Kind of blows my mind. Poor timing to get an "easy schedule" when I was wanting to get a higher draft selection to help put the Colts over the top.

Strength of schedule is for the most part a worthless calculation:

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2018/ignore-virtually-all-offseason-nfl-strength-of-schedule-information

[shasta519]

5 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

When we go 11-5 next year if someone brings up weak schedule is why they need to be banned do you agree? On paper we have a tough schedule, does everyone agree?

 

It’s definitely a tough schedule. And this is a big offseason for Ballard and the coaching staff.

[shasta519]

45 minutes ago, masterlock said:

Strength of schedule is for the most part a worthless calculation:

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2018/ignore-virtually-all-offseason-nfl-strength-of-schedule-information

 

Preseason...yes. After the season isn’t meaningless. The NFL uses it as a tiebreaker for the draft.

[Finball]

46 minutes ago, masterlock said:

Strength of schedule is for the most part a worthless calculation:

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2018/ignore-virtually-all-offseason-nfl-strength-of-schedule-information

 

Offseason or preseason SOS is. In-season SOS or after the season SOS is not. Like the article mentions at the end.

 

Quote

This reiterates my point that too much is made of strength of schedule in the offseason, but the sad part is, it’s not even being calculated in a useful manner whatsoever.  In typical NFL fashion, much hype is delivered to something that isn’t calculated in a manner that correlates to “real” strength of schedule, and very little is made of the most useful and best information (in-season strength of Schedule)

 

[aaron11]

im on the fence about our schedule.  the great offensive teams are the ones still alive, but our division rivals all have good defenses.  we built our oline to compete in the division, but its going to take better skill players to keep up with playoff teams

 

[Franklin County]

These are the wins in each division this year. 

AFC                                                         NFC

East 28                                                   North 32

North 32                                                East 31

West 34                                                  West 30

South 35                                                 South 32

 

AFC South had the most wins of any division. We all played 6 division games and 10 games from out of division. How is our schedule the easiest? If we are beating easy teams from other divisions then would the other divisions not be easy too?

 

[aaron11]

3 minutes ago, Franklin County said:

These are the wins in each division this year. 

AFC                                                         NFC

East 28                                                   North 32

North 32                                                East 31

West 34                                                  West 30

South 35                                                 South 32

 

AFC South had the most wins of any division. We all played 6 division games and 10 games from out of division. How is our schedule the easiest? If we are beating easy teams from other divisions then would the other divisions not be easy too?

 

 

we played weak offenses, but good defenses is what it comes down to.  texans were lucky to win that many games , i have no idea how the titans did it.  maybe we just match up well with them

[tfunky14]

18 hours ago, coltsva said:

Funny how we can win 10 out of 11 games, then lose to what is likely a Super Bowl team, and all of a sudden "we're just not that good" or "our schedule was weak" or we played lousy QB's."

 

We are good. Better than most of the teams in the league. We're just not in the top echelon of the league, which only includes 4 teams (Chiefs, Patriots, Rams, Saints).

 

We're every bit on the same level or better than the next tier of teams (Ravens, Cowboys, Texans, Eagles, Bears, Steelers, Chargers, Seahawks, Titans).

 

Are you watching the Chargers getting embarrassed by the Patriots? It happens. When a top team plays their "A" game and a 2nd tier team plays like garbage, it's s blowout.

 

We're simply not at the top level yet, but we took a giant leap towards that level this season. Another good draft, a couple key signings, and rookies with this year of experience (including coaches), and I'm confident we will be in that top echelon next season.

I think we are one of the top 6 teams in the league. The Colts just ran into a tough match just like the Chargers did on Sunday. 

 

I think our down fall on Saturday was momentum. A missed field goal, some missed throws and a bunch of missed tackles early had the snow ball rolling in KC's way.

That happens and they just couldn't over come it.

[Myles]

20 minutes ago, Franklin County said:

These are the wins in each division this year. 

AFC                                                         NFC

East 28                                                   North 32

North 32                                                East 31

West 34                                                  West 30

South 35                                                 South 32

 

AFC South had the most wins of any division. We all played 6 division games and 10 games from out of division. How is our schedule the easiest? If we are beating easy teams from other divisions then would the other divisions not be easy too?

 

[r a y s k i]

17 minutes ago, tfunky14 said:

I think we are one of the top 6 teams in the league. The Colts just ran into a tough match just like the Chargers did on Sunday. 

 

I think our down fall on Saturday was momentum. A missed field goal, some missed throws and a bunch of missed tackles early had the snow ball rolling in KC's way.

That happens and they just couldn't over come it.

I'd argue top 6 for sure but we are in the group under the top tier. We wouldn't consistently beat the likes of Vikings, Ravens/Steelers, Seattle and the Browns would probably give us a headache too. But that's my opinion, we aren't there yet but moving forward faster than any other team.

 

Mark my words. Chargers will never win anything till Rivers is their quarterback.

[richard pallo]

Bottom line is we played our worse game of the season Saturday.  That's about it.  A lot to look forward to though.  I will say this.  The pressure is really on Ballard this off season to complete the rebuild.  He's drafting later this time around so the advantage of having a top 5 pick is gone but he does have cap space and a tradable player in Brissett.  Those conditions are really going to make for an exciting off season. 

[lollygagger8]

Let's go over a few facts:

 

Defense switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3 

Completely new offensive scheme

QB just came off a year and half shoulder surgery 

Brand new and first time HC, DC, and OC

Almost half the team was starting rookies

AFC South isn't a cakewalk anymore. There are tough teams in this division. 

 

To get a playoff win and reach the next game, was pretty damn impressive in my book. 

[MacDee1975]

Did any of you people really think the Colts were going to win the Super Bowl this year?  My God.

[r a y s k i]

1 minute ago, MacDee1975 said:

Did any of you people really think the Colts were going to win the Super Bowl this year?  My God.

Nope. 

 

6 minutes ago, lollygagger8 said:

Let's go over a few facts:

 

Defense switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3 

Completely new offensive scheme

QB just came off a year and half shoulder surgery 

Brand new and first time HC, DC, and OC

Almost half the team was starting rookies

AFC South isn't a cakewalk anymore. There are tough teams in this division. 

 

To get a playoff win and reach the next game, was pretty damn impressive in my book. 

Fantastic season. The OP was meant to comment about the disappointing effort, not our achievements overall. I saw and felt we had a massive momentum coming in here and we fought so hard all year. Jacoby having fun with the defense for pictures and all that. Didn't feel the TEAM effort at all. No question we have over achieved and had a fantastic season.

[Myles]

3 minutes ago, MacDee1975 said:

Did any of you people really think the Colts were going to win the Super Bowl this year?  My God.

No one expected it, but being only 2 wins away made it possible to make it to the Superbowl. 

[jszfunk]

1 hour ago, tfunky14 said:

The Colts just ran into a tough match just like the Chargers did on Sunday. 

 

I think our down fall on Saturday was momentum. A missed field goal, some missed throws and a bunch of missed tackles early had the snow ball rolling in KC's way.

That happens and they just couldn't over come it.

 

I agree. KC was jacked, jumped on the Colts and never let them up. Once they got up 17 I had a bad feeling it was gonna be over. Miscues by the Colts and etc did not help.

 

I am not to disappointed that they got beat, but how it happened. Did not look like the same team we have been watching. Maybe just being young, new staff and not being ready for  this level of a team. It was a good measuring stick for Indy.  Learning experience for this team. The schedule is what is, just go out and win games now no matter who you play.

 

Chargers got man handled yesterday. I hope KC gives Brady, Bill and the rest of the Pat's a well deserved beat down.

[deedub75]

22 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

I understand fans being hyped after the stretch we had. But in reality except maybe the cowboys we played nobody. It gave everyone a sense we were better then what we were.  Reality after the game yesterday all the rookies and no name players caught up to us when we finally played a great team. This will be a huge learning experience moving forward.

 

I agree but I look more at the QBs and offenses we played against. Outside of Brady, we really faced no great QB during the regular season.  We lost to Philly but Wentz was not very good this season at all. They played better without him. We didn’t have to play any prolific offenses either. 

 

I’m encouraged that we seem to have a good foundation.  I just hope Ballard doesn’t come down with a case of the Grigson syndrome. 

[aaron11]

i dont think there is a team in the league that would have gone into KC in the snow and won.  we were put in a tough spot against the #1 seed

[lollygagger8]

30 minutes ago, MacDee1975 said:

Did any of you people really think the Colts were going to win the Super Bowl this year?  My God.

 

That's literally every fan's desire regardless of team. 

 

I for one thought they definitely had a shot. 

[jszfunk]

Just now, lollygagger8 said:

 

That's literally every fan's desire regardless of team. 

 

I for one thought they definitely had a shot. 

Once they got into the playoffs and rolled the Texans, I thought they had a real good shot too.

 

[Semicolt]

Yes the schedule is very challenging next year but our Rookies are going to grow , have another great draft and sprinkle in some good free agents we can play with anybody! As bad as we looked against Kansas City, we still had a legitimate chance to win that game. If Vinateri would of made his 4 points the Colts could of kicked the ball deep with 5 minutes left , having momentum and putting pressure on the Chiefs.   

[coltsva]

IMO, this is the 2nd tier of teams:

Steelers, Ravens, Seahawks, Browns, Chargers, Texans, Titans, Eagles, Cowboys, Bears, Colts. We were 5-2 vs these teams, 3 of which made the playoffs. I didn't include the Vikings because they are a notch below these teams. Their wins this season were Lions (twice), Packers, Dolphins, Jets, Cardinals, 49ers, Eagles (a good one).

 

Record of 2nd tier teams vs 2nd tier teams:

Colts  5-2

Chargers 5-1

Ravens  4-3

Texans  4-4

Eagles  3-3

Bears 1-1

Steelers 2-2-1

Cowboys  3-4

Titans  3-5

Seahawks  1-3

Browns  1-4-1

 

I think we're sitting nicely near the top of the 2nd tier teams.

[Barry Sears]

So, we lost to the team that Ballard had a hand in building.  Ballard is building our team, so I expect in a year or two, we'll be hosting playoff games as the #1 seed.

 

KC is amazing on offense and the defensive ranks aren't a true reflection of their talent.  Lots of opponents racked up yards because they had to pass the ball due to being so far behind.

 

Did you hear/see that KC had scored on their opening drive in ALL 16 games this year?  Or, maybe I misheard that during the telecast.  If I'm wrong, please correct me.

[horseshoecrabs]

 you have Enough, with worrying about next year's schedule, You don't know what the Next's year schedule is going to bring. Teams that excelled this year could be worst, along with teams that were bad last season could be hot! regardless you have to

[Peterk2011]

On 1/13/2019 at 5:23 PM, rayski said:

Loved our season but it seems we benefited a lot from a weak schedule. I think yesterday's game had a realistic outcome against a much better roster but what surprised me a lot after fighting against the odds all season was the effort. Horrible and that scares me a bit going forward. After AV missed the FG attempt, it was all too obvious. Autry said himself as well "We left it all in Indy". How can we came out so flat after a massive run like we had?

 

Reich's gameplan was awful, I mean just did not put us in a position to make a play at all,  couldn't establish the run and against Houston and Ford it was a horrible call trying to establish the run from shotgun imo. 

What do you guys think of our coaching moving forward? I think Eberflus has a good scheme but against the elite qbs zone will never work. Historically, vs PM and TB as well, it always has been pressure and man coverage. 

 

I think you are overreacting a bit about this Chiefs game. Yes, they played bad. The whole team. But it didn't come from nowhere. Productionwise they were on a rollercoaster all season. During the loosing part and the winning streak as well. They had one great game, then a good game, then a meh, then a really bad one. Then suddenly, a great game again. This was the story of the season. They just didn't know how to win bad games in the beginning.

 

This is a very young team, it was predictable that they will have bad games here and there. Actually, what wasn't predictable is that they can make such a winning streak this early. Easy chedule or not, it's not easy to win games in the NFL for such a young team.

 

I think this team made a HUGE step in the right direction. This is not a rebuilding team any more, this is now a good, playoff worthy team. Outside of the very best 3-4 teams, they can beat anyone, anywhere. However, the final step is the most difficult one, so there's still a lot of work to be done.

[CoachLite]

On ‎1‎/‎13‎/‎2019 at 1:14 PM, richard pallo said:

I like Reich and he is a 1st. year head coach but he is also a former QB.  What QB's like to do is throw the ball.  I think that's his first priority and probably explains why we abandon the run so fast.  Hopefully we can become more balanced next year.   BYW Trey Flowers or Dee Ford would certainly look good in a Colts uniform next year. 

I'm too mad at Dee Ford's speed rush against us to even think about it now. After I cool off in a few weeks, I might entertain the idea of him on the Colts.

[ManningGM]

The funny part is that Kansas City didn't even expect to be here right now. Majority of their fans on various forums thought this would be a 9-7 season for them. So while we were an overachieving rebuilding team this past season, it's not far-fetched to think we can win 13 games after the offseason. So many things can happen. 

[horseshoecrabs]

Enough, with worrying about next year's schedule, You don't know what the Next's  year's  teams are going to do. Regardless at some point  you have to beat the best anyway, so in the end it doesn't matter.  Win your division, Win enough games to by pass the wild card round, and then let the chips fall where they may. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

Here's a reality check:

1. We made the Playoffs by going 10-6, won a Playoff game winning at Houston when we were the underdog. Winning that game was huge and set the tone for next season in the Division. We are now the team to beat in the AFC South. Houston fans are in depression mode and we are now at least Kings of the South again.

 

2. We made the Elite 8 = a good season no matter how it is sliced. It was actually a great season for us because we way overachieved. 

 

3. From most of ESPN, NFL Network, USA Today, and Fox Sports they all had us winning 2-4 games before the season, we won 10  

 

4. A lot of people (fans and media) had the Jags or Steelers making the SB or even winning it all before the season, guess what neither made the Playoffs. Lets all be happy and move on from the loss at KC. The future is bright and we have a young team. Luck is still only 29 as well and he's healthy.

[masterlock]

On 1/14/2019 at 8:19 AM, Finball said:

 

Offseason or preseason SOS is. In-season SOS or after the season SOS is not. Like the article mentions at the end.

 

 

Right, but 99.9% of all conversations about "strength of schedule," including the one I was reacting to, aren't talking about in-season strength of schedule, which is why I posted the link. 

[aaron11]

On 1/14/2019 at 7:31 AM, masterlock said:

Strength of schedule is for the most part a worthless calculation:

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2018/ignore-virtually-all-offseason-nfl-strength-of-schedule-information

 

its not worth as much when you are looking ahead, especially to next season,  but it can tell you some things when you use it in hindsight

 

the south did win a lot of games this year, but none of our rivals had a great offense either 

[CoachLite]

On ‎1‎/‎14‎/‎2019 at 6:14 AM, shastamasta said:

 

It’s definitely a tough schedule. And this is a big offseason for Ballard and the coaching staff.

"To be the best, you must beat the best". In the sport I play, I try and play against the best competition available in order to learn 'how' to beat them (eventually).

[shasta519]

2 hours ago, CoachLite said:

"To be the best, you must beat the best". In the sport I play, I try and play against the best competition available in order to learn 'how' to beat them (eventually).

 

Yep...I am actually excited about the schedule. The Colts would have benefited from playing a KC, NO or LAR during this past regular season...and next season they will get that. They will be battle-tested, as people like to say. KC had a good advantage in that area on Saturday.

[NewColtsFan]

On 1/13/2019 at 8:23 AM, rayski said:

This thread is mainly about our coaching going forward.

 

Loved our season but it seems we benefited a lot from a weak schedule. I think yesterday's game had a realistic outcome against a much better roster but what surprised me a lot after fighting against the odds all season was the effort. Horrible and that scares me a bit going forward. After AV missed the FG attempt, it was all too obvious. Autry said himself as well "We left it all in Indy". 

How can we came out so flat after a massive run like we had?

 

Reich's gameplan was awful, I mean just did not put us in a position to make a play at all,  couldn't establish the run and against Houston and Ford it was a horrible call trying to establish the run from shotgun imo. 

What do you guys think of our coaching moving forward? I think Eberflus has a good scheme but against the elite qbs zone will never work. Historically, vs PM and TB as well, it always has been pressure and man coverage. 

 

It's just a shame we ended up exiting with an embarrassing effort but was an exciting season, we got 3 picks in the top50 and cash to burn.

 

Big ups to Leonard making a play when we needed it, what a stud. 

 

When Ballard was hired he said he had done a detailed analysis about what defenses were reaching the Super Bowl....   the vast majority were zone and not man.     For example,  New England,  Seattle and Denver to name a few.     There are plenty more.

 

This is the system Ballard wants and believes in.    In Eberflus, he has found someone who is in lock-step agreement with him.     They believe in it.     It's not changing. 

 

In Ballard's year end press conference he likely said more than a half dozen times that Kansas City was simply a better team than the Colts were.    Their Jessie's and Joe's are better than our Jessie's and Joe's.     Few games plans are good when you're losing the battle at the line of scrimmage.     And that's what happened.     Both our lines got pushed around by KC's lines.

 

They beat us.    Flat out,  they were better.  

 

We didn't lose to an inferior team,  we lost to a better team.     Ranked #1 in the AFC.    They got a bye week,  they were well rested.     They had home field advantage and KC's home field is one of the best in all of football.     There's not shame in our loss.     

 

We need to get better and with this upcoming FA and draft,  I think Ballard and his staff will make us much, much better.

 

Better days are ahead.....     

[Finball]

19 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

When Ballard was hired he said he had done a detailed analysis about what defenses were reaching the Super Bowl....   the vast majority were zone and not man.     For example,  New England,  Seattle and Denver to name a few.     There are plenty more.

 

 

NE has been among the man-heavy teams in the NFL for a long time. Denver in '15 was too. 

[LockeDown]

I’m interested in how we can better our offensive line going forward to where they can handle a group like KCs.  Technique? Strength? Scheme? Experience?

[CoachLite]

4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

When Ballard was hired he said he had done a detailed analysis about what defenses were reaching the Super Bowl....   the vast majority were zone and not man.     For example,  New England,  Seattle and Denver to name a few.     There are plenty more.

 

This is the system Ballard wants and believes in.    In Eberflus, he has found someone who is in lock-step agreement with him.     They believe in it.     It's not changing. 

 

In Ballard's year end press conference he likely said more than a half dozen times that Kansas City was simply a better team than the Colts were.    Their Jessie's and Joe's are better than our Jessie's and Joe's.     Few games plans are good when you're losing the battle at the line of scrimmage.     And that's what happened.     Both our lines got pushed around by KC's lines.

 

They beat us.    Flat out,  they were better.  

 

We didn't lose to an inferior team,  we lost to a better team.     Ranked #1 in the AFC.    They got a bye week,  they were well rested.     They had home field advantage and KC's home field is one of the best in all of football.     There's not shame in our loss.     

 

We need to get better and with this upcoming FA and draft,  I think Ballard and his staff will make us much, much better.

 

Better days are ahead.....     

There are many kinds of zone defense, including hybrids. Each can be compared with man-2-man, some more favorably. One size does not fit all.