Pro Football Reference AV for 2018

[shasta519]

I didn't see a post for this, so please feel free to merge if this is a duplicate. 

 

I was looking at Pro Football Reference...and I noticed that the AV (Approximate Value) for each player has been calculated. If you want to skip the pukage of words below, here are the links:

 

NFL leaderboard: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/leaders.htm

AV Calculation: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index2905.html?p=466

 

I am not expert...but for those not familiar, AV is calculated from a formula that assigns a point total to an offense or defense, based on multiple factors like team success and production relative to an average team. The better you are...the more points you have to assign...and vice versa. That point total is then divided up across position groups based on percentages (same for all teams I believe)...and then those available points for each group are given to each individual players based on production and individual awards (if applicable). 

 

It's far from a perfect system and definitely not the best...because it focuses on being a good offense or defense. It doesn't really account for the value someone provided to his own team (if that team is bad) or just how valuable he was despite being on a bad team. This can be egregious in some cases. It also places a lot of emphasis on Games Played (and not snap %), so that gives backups more AV than they should probably have (which means less for starters in some cases).

 

Ultimately, it will tend to overvalue players and positions...because of the formula for assigning points. But it seeks to assign a value to each player...so I find it interesting.

 

But I thought this year's numbers were especially interesting...and definitely relevant, given the matchup coming up. If you look at the rankings, you will see a lot of familiar names playing at Arrowhead this weekend. 

 

Some highlights:

 

Darius Leonard comes in with an 18...tied for 2nd in the NFL. Just a truly incredible season for DaROY (yes he is going to win...I am fully onboard the train). Remember how Polian compared him to Derrick Brooks...well that's what that AV looks like. LBs get a lot of love in AV, but Leonard's AV is commensurate with his on-field value.

 

Nelson comes in with a 15, which is also incredible. Though it somewhat came at the expense of other OL players, as they are curiously much lower in AV in comparision, despite having good seasons. Here is the rest of the OL:

 

AC - 5

Kelly - 6

Glow - 4

Smith - 6

 

Some of that has to do with Games Played I think, as Nelson didn't miss any...and many of the backup OL players got points by virtue of games played...so there was less to go around to the "starters." But also note that players who are named to AP or PB teams are assigned multipliers to their points. So when you are on a good OL (more points available), but are the only one to make one of those teams (you get a multiplier that no one else does), you are likely to get a much larger share of AV. That's not to say Nelson wasn't awesome, it just seems like something is wrong with the OL AVs overall. I think Nelson should probably be a couple points lower and each of those guys a couple points higher. But oh well.

 

Luck comes in at 15. In no universe is Luck tied as the second-most valuable player on the Colts, so you can see how AV can undervalue players. Mahomes is so high because his offense got so many points to use. I guess AV didn't love the Colts offense after all, as the available points reflect a slightly above above average team on offense (which we know really wasn't the case).

 

TY was the next one in line with 11. Seems a bit low...but WR1s and WR2s, unless they are on a great offensive team, tend to get undevalued. Case in point, Davante Adams somehow gets an 10, while Michael Thomas gets a 17.

 

But a big shout out to Leonard and Nelson. I am sure their agents love seeing these numbers as well.