I owe Quentin Nelson an apology

[Superman]

4 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

So what you're saying is you would rather have Chubb than Nelson and you think CB is a horrible GM because he did not pick the guy you liked and you wish Irsay would fire the GM, all the scouts and the coaching staff and start all over.  Got it. (I know how much you like extremes )

 

Got it. I should have just said all of that in the first place, huh?

[Lucky Colts Fan]

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

Got it. I should have just said all of that in the first place, huh?

 

When in Rome... 

[2006Coltsbestever]

5 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Well stated. Better than anyone else in this thread so far. 

 

That doesn't wash away the importance of positional value, but it's obviously a compelling argument, and it's why it wasn't hard for me to make my peace with the pick once we moved down to #6.

 

 

 

Tell me what you mean here. Surely you don't mean that passing on Nelson would have somehow forced the Colts to take Braden Smith instead of Leonard at #36; and you can't mean that getting an extra second rounder was unattainable; and I don't think you're arguing that Lewis absolutely wouldn't have lasted four more picks to #67.

Actually what Myles Posted is what I was exactly thinking. He worded it perfectly. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

5 hours ago, Myles said:

I don't think many think of it that way.

We thought, pick Nelson and not worry about that position for a decade.  Pick Nelson and improve the line more than another guard could.  Pick Nelson and protect Luck better than another could.   Pick Nelson and have better run blocking than another could provide.     They could have had adequate at all those with another signing, but it would not be as good or impactful.  

I disagree.   The Colts could not have done that and picked Chubb.  

This^. Fantastic Post.

[jvan1973]

19 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I'll rank my opinion as to why the offense/OL has improved and why Luck leads the NFL in non-sacked.  And I'll use spaces to indicate separation:

 

Reich is smarter than Chuck/Chud

 

Luck is healthy and can execute Reich's scheme

 

 

 

 

Nelson replaced Vuj.

 

Kelly is healthy

Smith replaced Good et al

Glow replaced Haeg et al

 

 

 

AC can be AC because he has improved LG play

Kelly can be Kelly because he has improved LG and RG play.

 

 

That Ballard guy is amazing.   Fixed the oline in one off season.  Nelson,  smith,  glow and the hiring of Dave DeGuglielmo has been the difference.   EOY cantidate for sure

[2006Coltsbestever]

7 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

That Ballard guy is amazing.   Fixed the oline in one off season.  Nelson,  smith,  glow and the hiring of Dave DeGuglielmo has been the difference.   EOY cantidate for sure

But the 1 million dollar question is, was the Ebron signing amazing?  

[Lucky Colts Fan]

Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

But the 1 million dollar question is, was the Ebron signing amazing?  

 

You mean the million page question.  Let's not open that again... this thread has already gone on for too many pages... 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

You mean the million page question.  Let's not open that again... this thread has already gone on for too many pages... 

I couldn't resist, but yeah I will stop there 

[Coffeedrinker]

21 minutes ago, coltsfeva said:

  Football is changing: The value if interior linemen is on the rise. Pressure is coming from guys on the inside more (Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox,etc).

I've been saying this for about a year now.  I think it will become more apparent in the next couple of years.  Teams having been spending so much capital on edge rushers, the way to combat that is with more quick throws and running up between the tackles.  In order to do both, you need a excellent interior lineman.  I saw a stat in another thread that last year Mack averaged 1.6 ypc between the tackles.  This year it's 4.6.  Now the interior is not the only reason for that but they are a big portion of it.

 

But I am not a positional value/draft value type believer.  I'm a BPO available. I won't go into it here but I have discussed how I think team position and need are factored in to a score to determine the BPO.  But I am a firm believer that when it's your turn to draft, you draft the person at the top of your board.

[BOTT]

10 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Don't worry, there were about 20 people or so in here that said picking a Guard at #6 was basically stupid and was unsexy  . They really look silly . On my Draft board for us I had Barkley 1st but Nelson 2nd, Chubb was 3rd. So glad Denver took Chubb so we ended up with Nelson.  Nelson>Chubb. Also Barkley>Chubb. I knew Barkley would be gone by the time we picked so I got my guy.

Jesus, does the fact that not everyone wanted a guard at #3 have to brought up in every "Quinten Nelson is awesome" thread? 

[Lucky Colts Fan]

2 minutes ago, BOTT said:

Jesus, does the fact that not everyone wanted a guard at #3 have to brought up in every "Quinten Nelson is awesome" thread? 

 

Yes.

 

Duh.

[Coffeedrinker]

5 minutes ago, BOTT said:

Jesus, does the fact that not everyone wanted a guard at #3 have to brought up in every "Quinten Nelson is awesome" thread? 

Why are you asking Him?  I'm pretty sure He doesn't care about Nelson threads.

 

Although He did like the pick, thought Nelson was a great value at #6.

[2006Coltsbestever]

8 minutes ago, BOTT said:

Jesus, does the fact that not everyone wanted a guard at #3 have to brought up in every "Quinten Nelson is awesome" thread? 

Yes it does because it proves why people should open their minds up is why I posted it. If someone is clearly wrong, yes I will Post it. I didn't mention any names but you were one that hated the pick. We took him at #6 actually and Chubb was already gone. I am just glad Ballard is the GM and some people in here are not.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

4 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Why are you asking Him?  I'm pretty sure He doesn't care about Nelson threads.

 

Although He did like the pick, thought Nelson was a great value at #6.

 

Forgive them father, for they know not the true value of Quenton.

[ColtsBlueFL]

10 hours ago, Myles said:

Yep.

I wanted us to draft him with the 3rd pick.  So getting him at 6 was fantastic. 

 

10 hours ago, csmopar said:

I was as well. But lets not brag too much.

 

10 hours ago, PeterBowman said:

normally picking a guard at 6 IS unsexy....BUT there are always an exception to that rule....and Nelson is that exception. 

 

yup...

[BOTT]

5 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yes it does because it proves why people should open their minds up is why I posted it. If someone is clearly wrong, yes I will Post it. I didn't mention any names but you were one that hated the pick. We took him at #6 actually and Chubb was already gone. I am just glad Ballard is the GM and some people in here are not.

It's been duly noted about 4'552 times in the last several months.  We get it, you were right. Congratulations!!

[2006Coltsbestever]

I will use words like right and wrong because that is the bottomline. What other words should I use? When the NFL Network ranked us 32, what word comes to mind? Wrong right . I admit when I am wrong and always have in here, some people can't and make excuses to sugarcoat things. I thought Edmunds would have a great Rookie year, guess what I was wrong. I thought Joey Bosa would be a bust, I was wrong. See how easy that is. Picking Nelson was the right pick and an Excellent pick, case closed.

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, BOTT said:

It's been duly noted about 4'552 times in the last several months.  We get it, you were right. Congratulations!!

Thanks but I could care less about being right. It wasn't about that. I was just pointing out how silly it was for people to say picking a Guard at #6 was stupid. Same for a RB. Barkley had a great rookie season. Sometimes people need to think outside the box. 

[LockeDown]

4 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

I think a HOFer at any position (outside of K or P) would trump the protocol.  

 

But I don't think GMs think like that. So much has to go right for a player to become a HOFer AND stay with his team. And how many GMs stay with a team for that duration of time?

 

I think it's more likely that Ballard saw the best young G he has seen (another Zack Martin) and knew he would be an impact player (at a position of need) for at least the next 5+ years. That was a safe, easy pick and a much-needed short cut to checking off the OL box, which was imperative for him. 

 

I can't say I blame him for it...Nelson was fantastic this season. But drafting a G that early is not something I want to see the Colts do again for a long time.  

I don’t think he thought 5 years.  Think Joe Thomas ( I know diff position)  kind of career . Plus  Ballard always talks about spending money on signing his own players. 

[Lucky Colts Fan]

4 minutes ago, BOTT said:

It's been duly noted about 4'552 times in the last several months.  We get it, you were right. Congratulations!!

 

We get it.  You don't like being reminded that you were wrong. 

[Four2itus]

BPA

BPA

BPA all day

 

Oh what fun, it is to decide, on a G that's BPA....hey!

[Four2itus]

12 minutes ago, BOTT said:

It's been duly noted about 4'552 times in the last several months.  We get it, you were right. Congratulations!!

Still doesn't beat how many times JShipp mentioned Barkley. 

[BOTT]

1 minute ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

We get it.  You don't like being reminded that you were wrong. 

I mocked myself for it months ago. So no, that's not it. And I wasn't even posting around draft time so I doubt many remember my feelings on it.

 

its simply uncouth to continually pat yourself on the back for something that's been settled for months.

 

i don't write "yeah, but y'all defended Chuck for years" in every Reich thread.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

2 minutes ago, BOTT said:

its simply uncouth to continually pat yourself on the back for something that's been settled for months.

 

Welcome to the Internet!

 

Snacks and refreshments available upon request.

 

We have bananees, and avocadees.

 

5 minutes ago, BOTT said:

i don't write "yeah, but y'all defended Chuck for years" in every Reich thread.

 

and yeah, you kinda do something to that effect anytime Pagano is brought up...

 

[Myles]

48 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

 

 

But I am not a positional value/draft value type believer.  I'm a BPO available. I won't go into it here but I have discussed how I think team position and need are factored in to a score to determine the BPO.  But I am a firm believer that when it's your turn to draft, you draft the person at the top of your board.

I'm with you except that I would say BPA that is a direct need for the team.   That's to say with the Colts, I thought RB was a slight need as in I wasn't completely sold on Mack and Turbine as a better than average combo.    I thought protecting Luck and improving the running game with the same pick was the better option.  Turns out that the BPA and our biggest need was the same player.   Turns out it also helped Mack, not Turbin for reasons I assume were related to Hines and Wilkins. 

[Myles]

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

But the 1 million dollar question is, was the Ebron signing amazing?  

Personally I was skeptical of the signing of Ebron.   I read allot of what Lions fans thought of him and it made me think twice about the signing.    But before he even played a down, I decided that it was a good signing.   First it was pretty cheap.   Second (maybe first) I liked his size.   I knew the Colts needed size at the WR position.   Although he is technically a TE, I figured he would play a mostly receiver role.  The Colts needed a big receiver and Ebron fit the mold.   Worth the risk.   I would still like the Colts to find a bigger WR in FA or the draft though.  

[BOTT]

5 minutes ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

Welcome to the Internet!

 

Snacks and refreshments available upon request.

 

We have bananees, and avocadees.

 

 

and yeah, you kinda do something to that effect anytime Pagano is brought up...

 

Pointing out the fact that Chuck was a poor coach to people still defending him is far different.  But im guessing you know that....or maybe not.

 

oprah sucks.

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, Myles said:

I'm with you except that I would say BPA that is a direct need for the team.   That's to say with the Colts, I thought RB was a slight need as in I wasn't completely sold on Mack and Turbine as a better than average combo.    I thought protecting Luck and improving the running game with the same pick was the better option.  Turns out that the BPA and our biggest need was the same player.   Turns out it also helped Mack, not Turbin for reasons I assume were related to Hines and Wilkins. 

I would've had Chubb 2nd on my board if I didn't think Barkley was Barry Sanders like with size. Barkley is going to tear it up for years IMO. I like Mack but he isn't Barkley. I would take Barkley over any RB in the league. 

[Myles]

27 minutes ago, LockeDown said:

I don’t think he thought 5 years.  Think Joe Thomas ( I know diff position)  kind of career . Plus  Ballard always talks about spending money on signing his own players. 

Plus, you have to take into the Ballard philosophy which Irsay has obviously bought into.    Build the trenches through the draft.     The O-line trench seems complete in 1 year.  

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, BOTT said:

Pointing out the fact that Chuck was a poor coach to people still defending him is far different.  But im guessing you know that....or maybe not.

 

oprah sucks.

Oprah does suck, I can't stand her  

[throwing BBZ]

5 hours ago, Superman said:

 

To the bolded, again, a great benefit in playing it the way Ballard did, which I'm fine with. You're working hard to sell me on a decision that I'm already fully bought in on.

 

Second, those are major assumptions that hinge on what I think is an overestimation of Nelson's impact. His impact has been dramatic, and yet I still think people are overstating it, especially relative to reasonable alternatives.

 

The pass rush is still middling, and sorely lacks a dynamic rusher. Let's not act like we don't need to improve the pass rush.

 

KC has 3 dynamic pass rushers. And the 31st ranked defense
Pretty sure you believe we have mediorce pass rushers, correct?
 So the chess match is on Saturday and we get to see the value of an Elite pass rush against our O-Line.
 And see what pressure we can put on them with a mediocre bunch of pass rushers.
  This of course will bring up thoughts about coaching, the scheme Eb uses to create pressure.

 Eb is doing just fine so far, with what he has. And of course Ballard will be looking to add players that will maintain/improve our D-Line.

 I believe Ballard gives very serious weight to intangibles when grading draft picks. 

So it is interesting that he chose the deal, the Value, risking your pass rusher, a Hall of Fame talent guard with impressive intangibles, for depth for his team. 

 I have no doubt Ballard will provide the players to create a very talented defense that can pressure QB's on a high level. Several young ones are here NOW. 
 And also supply the players required to protect his QB and run the he** out of the ball.

 Saturday is going to be velly interesting.

And so will be the off season as we All Know.

  

 

 

  

[Myles]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I would've had Chubb 2nd on my board if I didn't think Barkley was Barry Sanders like with size. Barkley is going to tear it up for years IMO. I like Mack but he isn't Barkley. I would take Barkley over any RB in the league. 

Me too.   If Barkely would have fell to 6th (no chance) I would not have blamed Ballard for grabbing him instead of Nelson.    

[Myles]

6 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

KC has 3 dynamic pass rushers. And the 31st ranked defense
Pretty sure you believe we have mediorce pass rushers, correct?
 So the chess match is on Saturday and we get to see the value of an Elite pass rush against our O-Line.
 And see what pressure we can put on them with a mediocre bunch of pass rushers.
  This of course will bring up thoughts about coaching, the scheme Eb uses to create pressure.

 Eb is doing just fine so far, with what he has. And of course Ballard will be looking to add players that will maintain/improve our D-Line.

 I believe Ballard gives very serious weight to intangibles when grading draft picks. 

So it is interesting that he chose the deal, the Value, risking your pass rusher, a Hall of Fame talent guard with impressive intangibles, for depth for his team. 

 I have no doubt Ballard will provide the players to create a very talented defense that can pressure QB's on a high level. Several young ones are here NOW. 
 And also supply the players required to protect his QB and run the he** out of the ball.

 Saturday is going to be velly interesting.

And so will be the off season as we All Know.

  

 

 

  

I think Ballard weighed what 1 player can do to improve a team.   So he chose against Chubb and traded back, but also seen that Nelson was a generational player with the character and attitude to help change the  team.   So he decided that 1 trade back for extra picks was enough.    Kind of best of both worlds.  Trade back and get more picks and also get a great player in a position of need.  

[Four2itus]

6 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

Saturday is going to be velly interesting.

[Myles]

1 minute ago, Four2itus said:

 

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

5 minutes ago, Myles said:

I think Ballard weighed what 1 player can do to improve a team.   So he chose against Chubb and traded back, but also seen that Nelson was a generational player with the character and attitude to help change the  team.   So he decided that 1 trade back for extra picks was enough.    Kind of best of both worlds.  Trade back and get more picks and also get a great player in a position of need.  

Your Posts today have been awesome my friend. Never thought I would agree with a Cards fan so much being a Cubs fan 

[JustAColtsFan]

9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

My point of view doesn't need excuses; it's my point of view, and has been for a long time. I said the exact same thing before the draft, and I was very convinced that Nelson would be very good, right away. The fact that he's been very good right away doesn't change that.

 

And what a terrible analogy. If I have a plumbing issue, I call a plumber. I don't have to pay double the going rate for a plumber, though; there's a world of difference between that and calling an electrician. 

 

That's my point: We could have improved the guard position without spending an premier pick on a non premier position. I didn't say let's draft a strong safety and play him at guard.

 

And no, I didn't say that about Peyton Manning, because QB is the most important, valuable and hardest to fill position in team sports. The value calculus supports taking a QB at the top of the draft if you think he can be a franchise QB. There's no such thing as a franchise LG. and there never will be.

You are missing Nelsons true value entirely.  Yes, you could draft a guard at a lower spot that would be serviceable and fill the need.  But Ballard was looking for and found the cornerstone of our OL for the next decade.  A player that doesn't just "fill a need at good value" but makes every other player on THE LINE better!  A Horseshoe Guy!  A player that "Fits the Culture" of the Colts locker room.  His value is not quantified by draft round or pick number.

[Myles]

3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Your Posts today have been awesome my friend. Never thought I would agree with a Cards fan so much being a Cubs fan 

I forgot you were a Cubs fan. 

 

I used to root for the Cubs until they became competitive and the Cubs fans I work with came out of the woodwork and became cocky.  

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, Myles said:

I forgot you were a Cubs fan. 

 

I used to root for the Cubs until they became competitive and the Cubs fans I work with came out of the woodwork and became cocky.  

I have been a Cubs fan since 1984 (so no bandwagon here), just glad we finally won a WS. You should Post more on the Baseball Thread, Jay is a huge Cards fan and you guys have added some solid players so far in the offseason. On paper the Cards look dangerous again.

 

-Back on topic, I haven't disagreed with one thing you have said all day and that is rare . Nelson is the man!

[dw49]

6 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Goodness... 

 

Nelson allowed one sack, and he's a great guard. Last year, Vuj allowed five, and he's a terrible guard. Put an average guard there, and split the difference.

 

And I'm arguing that we could have added a good guard, not an average guard. Combine that with the better offense and play calling, maybe he gives two sacks? So no, it's not really a fact that a B level guard would have resulted in Luck getting hit more.

 

Same principle in the run game, although Nelson's major strength is in run blocking. I think he's had a far greater impact as a run blocker than a pass protector, but his pass pro is being stressed in this argument because 'we had to save Luck!' 

 

 

So what? Who said get rid of Autry and Hunt? Why is everything either/or in this discussion?

 

In 2013, Mathis had 19 sacks. He was hurt in 2014, but the Colts had more sacks as a whole. Does that mean he wouldn't have improved the pass rush?

 

 

I don't disagree with any of that, except the bolded, which I think is a stretch. There's nothing wrong with what Ballard did. I just don't think taking Nelson at #6 represented maximum value, and that's okay.

 

 

You don't think Nelson represented "maximum value at pick 1.6 ? Do you really believe that or do you just hate saying you were mistaken . Tell me what player Ballard should have taken instead of Nelson at 6. I think maybe I'm misunderstanding you ?