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1 hour ago, Luck is Good said:

Colts will win the AFC if they beat the Chiefs

 

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I think so too, I think we can go into New England and even win if we beat KC.

Agreed. New England for some reason just doesn't scare me like that. 

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10 hours ago, ChiefsGuest said:

So just a few more nuggets about the chiefs. 

 

People that don’t watch the chiefs much or at all will say Mahomes record against playoff teams is .500 and it’s true but look at the numbers he put up against those teams, the guy can flat ball , and it wasn’t like we were way behind in any games, typically it was always within 1-6 points the entire game. He actually played better against better teams. 

 

Our D-line and O line backers are very good but probably not as good as your OLine. The reason I intimately think the chiefs lose is that our inside linebackers, corners and safety’s might be in the top 5 NFL all time dumpster fire awful units. I mean seriously if you haven’t watched them play this year you are going to laugh. 

 

Once mack gets thru our line good night, he’s going to average 7-11 yards per carry is my guess. And luck will have a field day. The only way we win is a 45-42 type of game. But I don’t see it. Colts win 

 

Appreciate the perspective. 

 

The trench battle is going to be an important one on all sides of the ball. 

 

Everyone keeps saying we need to control the clock and run run run to limit the Chiefs possessions, and while yeah, that’s a good way to approach it, it’s not going to ensure victory. That assumes that they can’t go and score on every possession they have. If we only allow them 6 possessions in the game and they score TDs on each of them that doesn’t work to our advantage. And that offense is very capable of that. 

 

I’ll answer your reason why you think we win with my reason I think you win:

 

We’ve been fairly suspect against the pass. 

 

Going back to when the turnaround started (Week 7) we have allowed the following passing stat lines:

 

Derek Anderson 20-31 175 yards 3 INT

Derek Carr 21-28 244 yards 3 TD

Blake Bortles 26-38 320 yards 2 TD

Mariota/Gabbert 21-29 176 yards 1 TD 2 INT

Ryan Tannehill 17-25 204 yards 2 TD

Cody Kessler 18-24 150 yards

Deshaun Watson 27-38 267 yards 1 TD

Dak Prescott 24-39 206 yards 1 INT

Eli Manning 25-33 309 yards 1TD 1 INT

Blaine Gabbert 18-29 165 yards 1 TD 2 INT

**Deshaun Watson 29-49 235 yards 1 TD 1 INT

 

A few takeaways:

We have given up a total of 2,451 yards in the air over that stretch and 694 of those yards (over 20%) have been to the TE position. That’s an average of nearly 70 yards a game to the TE position. In 7 of those 10 games we gave up receptions to multiple TEs. Despite those numbers we did only allow 3 TDs to TEs over that stretch. 

 

That is obviously important because you guys have a top 3 TE in the game in Kelce. During this stretch we haven’t seen anywhere near the talent at TE that Kelce possesses. 

 

We also haven’t seen a QB near as talented as Mahomes. We can stop the run. No doubt. The pass? Against a top 5 QB and a top 3 TE? And one of the best WRs in the game to boot? Uncharted waters for us. Very choppy uncharted waters for us when you figure in that QBs are completing 67% of their passes against us. 

 

Which brings me back to my original point: the battle in the trenches is where we are going to have to accel. Our pass rush isn’t always consistent. It can flat out disappear at times. We need it to be rock steady Saturday because Mahomes can and will find options to throw to. 

 

And even if we are rushing him consistently, if he’s making quick passes to Kelce it may not matter. We’ve been suspect enough against the TE position that it could still be an issue. 

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Anyone who thinks this game is going to be easy for the Colts is mistaken.  This is by far their biggest test since the New England game.  I don’t think it’s as simple as just run the ball and control the clock.  First you have to get a lead to do that and while the Colts are much better at running the ball their offense is still pass first with Luck.  Look at Saturday they came out throwing and then went to the run.

 

i do think the Colts can win but in order to do that they can’t have mistakes.  They have to be disciplined and not commit stupid pentalies that we have seen at times this season and avoid turnovers.  They also probably have to create a couple.  

 

I expect KC to use the QB run after the Texans had success with it Sunday and look for misdirection stuff to try to get our defense to over purse like in the Giants game.  They also have a really good tight end which has been matchup problem for the Colts.  

 

The Colts must get off to a fast start Saturday and they can’t have the offensive droughts that we have seen at times this season including last week when they didn’t score for pretty close to 35 minutes of game time.  

 

I think the Colts can win but they are probably going to have to play their best game of the season to do it.

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4 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

Anyone who thinks this game is going to be easy for the Colts is mistaken.  This is by far their biggest test since the New England game.  I don’t think it’s as simple as just run the ball and control the clock.  First you have to get a lead to do that and while the Colts are much better at running the ball their offense is still pass first with Luck.  Look at Saturday they came out throwing and then went to the run.

 

i do think the Colts can win but in order to do that they can’t have mistakes.  They have to be disciplined and not commit stupid pentalies that we have seen at times this season and avoid turnovers.  They also probably have to create a couple.  

 

I expect KC to use the QB run after the Texans had success with it Sunday and look for misdirection stuff to try to get our defense to over purse like in the Giants game.  They also have a really good tight end which has been matchup problem for the Colts.  

 

The Colts must get off to a fast start Saturday and they can’t have the offensive droughts that we have seen at times this season including last week when they didn’t score for pretty close to 35 minutes of game time.  

 

I think the Colts can win but they are probably going to have to play their best game of the season to do it.

 

Agree. The game control, run the ball approach sounds great on paper. But it's probably not going to work out quite like that. I don't think the Colts won't have the same margin for error that BAL had in their game.

 

Interestingly, according to DVOA, the difference between BAL and IND on defense is the same as IND and KC. So you can see how good BAL truly is on defense.

 

I look at the LAR game...they have the best RB in the NFL...and they came out aggressive and got a lead. But did they go in control the clock mode? No...they kept their foot on the throttle as much as possible...and it's a good thing...because they needed 54 points to win that game.

 

Colts aren't putting up 54 points (I don't think)...but they will also have to score a lot of points...even with long drives.

 

 

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Yes, all teams have their share of over the top negative, or positive fans....and those numbers grow exponentially as a team either ascends, or descends. However, before anyone says that two boards are the same, take some time to read through 1/2 the pages on Chiefs planet where they discuss the Colts. (about 25 pages in a 50 page thread).  

 

It isn't just cussing, it's like a XXX hate filled version of Lord of the Flies. It's appears to be mostly kids acting tough by being as gross and rudely descriptive as possible. That board is nothing like this board. 

 

However, how can I blame them? I remember when I had my first beer......

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8 hours ago, Myles said:

Cowterd is a hack.

 

This is where I come down on the guy, but he has the most favorable opinion on Luck and now Ballard in the big time sports media bubble. 

He has a know it all demeanor that's a bit ridiculous, given that he's just spouting about sports. That's the primary nub of why I can't listen to his show for any real stretch of time. Oh and LeBron vs Jordan isn't the most compelling thing to spend brain power on. 

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22 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

Agree. The game control, run the ball approach sounds great on paper. But it's probably not going to work out quite like that. I don't think the Colts won't have the same margin for error that BAL had in their game.

 

Interestingly, according to DVOA, the difference between BAL and IND on defense is the same as IND and KC. So you can see how good BAL truly is on defense.

 

I look at the LAR game...they have the best RB in the NFL...and they came out aggressive and got a lead. But did they go in control the clock mode? No...they kept their foot on the throttle as much as possible...and it's a good thing...because they needed 54 points to win that game.

 

Colts aren't putting up 54 points (I don't think)...but they will also have to score a lot of points...even with long drives.

 

 

 

Gurley also got injured in that game. It's hard to say they wouldn't have ran it more if he didnt get his ankle rolled up on early in the game.

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9 minutes ago, CamMo said:

 

Hooker isn’t practicing and the boot is supposedly “precautionary.” 

 

 

In the playoffs you rest your injured players no matter how injured during the week. Game time decision no doubt. TY didn't practice last week. I'll take an unpracticed hooker over anyone else that we would have back there.

 

If he doesn't play I see a luck of successful big plays this Saturday.

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19 minutes ago, our_dbs_rock said:

 

Gurley also got injured in that game. It's hard to say they wouldn't have ran it more if he didnt get his ankle rolled up on early in the game.

 

That's true. But they definitely were trying to establish the run early. 

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23 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

Agree. The game control, run the ball approach sounds great on paper. But it's probably not going to work out quite like that. I don't think the Colts won't have the same margin for error that BAL had in their game.

 

Interestingly, according to DVOA, the difference between BAL and IND on defense is the same as IND and KC. So you can see how good BAL truly is on defense.

 

I look at the LAR game...they have the best RB in the NFL...and they came out aggressive and got a lead. But did they go in control the clock mode? No...they kept their foot on the throttle as much as possible...and it's a good thing...because they needed 54 points to win that game.

 

Colts aren't putting up 54 points (I don't think)...but they will also have to score a lot of points...even with long drives.

 

 

Chiefs had Hunt then too that offense hasn't been that lethal since he got cut.

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22 hours ago, Four2itus said:

Yes, all teams have their share of over the top negative, or positive fans....and those numbers grow exponentially as a team either ascends, or descends. However, before anyone says that two boards are the same, take some time to read through 1/2 the pages on Chiefs planet where they discuss the Colts. (about 25 pages in a 50 page thread).  

 

It isn't just cussing, it's like a XXX hate filled version of Lord of the Flies. It's appears to be mostly kids acting tough by being as gross and rudely descriptive as possible. That board is nothing like this board. 

 

However, how can I blame them? I remember when I had my first beer......

Yeah, I was curious and saw the forum.  The moderators for that forum should be banned for allowing that stuff. lol.

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If it's sloppy like they say it might be, Mack should get ready for a few more carries.

 

They'll definitely have to bring their 'A' game into a hostile stadium.

 

They've got a shot as long as they play clean also. We've been higher in the flag department it seems under Frank.

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22 hours ago, Four2itus said:

Yes, all teams have their share of over the top negative, or positive fans....and those numbers grow exponentially as a team either ascends, or descends. However, before anyone says that two boards are the same, take some time to read through 1/2 the pages on Chiefs planet where they discuss the Colts. (about 25 pages in a 50 page thread).  

 

It isn't just cussing, it's like a XXX hate filled version of Lord of the Flies. It's appears to be mostly kids acting tough by being as gross and rudely descriptive as possible. That board is nothing like this board. 

 

However, how can I blame them? I remember when I had my first beer......

 

I made some comments earlier in this thread that fans of teams are essentially the same and that Chiefs site is no different.  Those comments were before I actually visited and I was flat out wrong.  Clearly that is not an official team site as I can't imagine the Chiefs would allow the nonsense.  

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On 1/8/2019 at 12:32 AM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I just watched a Youtube clip of Undisputed from earlier today and Skip Bayless said he was wrong about Andrew Luck and he now loves him. He is wanting to bet Shannon a case of Mt Dew that the Colts will win over KC. I have to mark this day down as something I thought I would never hear or see. He was being sincere too. :rock:

He just read off a teleprompter.

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15 minutes ago, our_dbs_rock said:

 

Didnt he supposedly get hurt on the opening drive?

 

I think it was the 3rd drive...but he came back later and was in the game in the 2nd half. They just didn't really use him. Probably because of the injury, but also because of game play.

 

That was supposed to say "definitely weren't trying to establish the run" btw.

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23 hours ago, Four2itus said:

Yes, all teams have their share of over the top negative, or positive fans....and those numbers grow exponentially as a team either ascends, or descends. However, before anyone says that two boards are the same, take some time to read through 1/2 the pages on Chiefs planet where they discuss the Colts. (about 25 pages in a 50 page thread).  

 

It isn't just cussing, it's like a XXX hate filled version of Lord of the Flies. It's appears to be mostly kids acting tough by being as gross and rudely descriptive as possible. That board is nothing like this board. 

 

However, how can I blame them? I remember when I had my first beer......

If we win, I am going to take a trip back over there just to see the reaction.  It's like a jacked up dream in there.

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1 hour ago, jskinnz said:

I made some comments earlier in this thread that fans of teams are essentially the same and that Chiefs site is no different.  Those comments were before I actually visited and I was flat out wrong.  Clearly that is not an official team site as I can't imagine the Chiefs would allow the nonsense.  

 

Last time I checked, the Colts were the only NFL team that still have a fan forum on their teams' website.

 

I guess we're the only fanbase that has stayed civilized enough to keep one going.

 

I've peeked at some fan forums for other teams (not affiliated with the team website, of course) and WOW... it really is like Lord of the Flies in some of them.

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43 minutes ago, jameszeigler834 said:

Ya but they were a lot more dangerous when they had him though since then they aren't as lethal running the ball.

 

They have actually been more efficient running the ball with Damien Williams, though via lesser attempts.

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21 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Efficient and dangerous are two different things. Just saying.

 

For me, those are very closely related. Williams can't impact the same way the passing game as Hunt but as a runner, he's been more efficient and efficiency is probably the single most important thing.

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23 minutes ago, dodsworth said:

They are a paper tiger. 3 and 3 in their last 6 games.

 

Meh...I wouldn't put a ton of stock into that 3-3 record. They are #1 according to DVOA. They lost by a total of 4 points to the #2 and #3 teams...and they beat the LAC earlier in the season.

 

The loss at SEA (very tough place to win) wasn't a must-win game for them, as the LAC had already lost the day before and they only had to beat OAK the following week to get the #1 seed (and they weren't going to be resting starters in that game because they were chasing milestones).

 

KC isn't unbeatable...but I think they are far from a paper tiger. They are just unbalanced. As we have seen in the past, that can hurt a team (2004 Colts), but it can also change (2006 Colts). 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

Meh...I wouldn't put a ton of stock into that 3-3 record. They are #1 according to DVOA. They lost by a total of 4 points to the #2 and #3 teams...and they beat the LAC earlier in the season.

 

The loss at SEA (very tough place to win) wasn't a must-win game for them, as the LAC had already lost the day before and they only had to beat OAK the following week to get the #1 seed (and they weren't going to be resting starters in that game because they were chasing milestones).

 

KC isn't unbeatable...but I think they are far from a paper tiger. They are just unbalanced. As we have seen in the past, that can hurt a team (2004 Colts), but it can also change (2006 Colts). 

 

 

Good post

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2 hours ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

Last time I checked, the Colts were the only NFL team that still have a fan forum on their teams' website.

 

I guess we're the only fanbase that has stayed civilized enough to keep one going.

 

I've peeked at some fan forums for other teams (not affiliated with the team website, of course) and WOW... it really is like Lord of the Flies in some of them.

 

You'd be surprised at how bonkers some of the stuff that gets removed is. 

 

It's a forum linked the official site so yeah we have a standard of behavior we try to hold posters to, are you 'Shoe posters or not? :P

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2 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

Meh...I wouldn't put a ton of stock into that 3-3 record. They are #1 according to DVOA.

 

And Colts #2 !! 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2019/week-18-dvoa-ratings

 

Quote

They lost by a total of 4 points to the #2 and #3 teams...and they beat the LAC earlier in the season.

 

The loss at SEA (very tough place to win) wasn't a must-win game for them, as the LAC had already lost the day before and they only had to beat OAK the following week to get the #1 seed (and they weren't going to be resting starters in that game because they were chasing milestones).

 

KC isn't unbeatable...but I think they are far from a paper tiger. They are just unbalanced. As we have seen in the past, that can hurt a team (2004 Colts), but it can also change (2006 Colts).

 

Football Outsiders odds-

 

Team    Conf App       Conf Win    SB Win

NO        75.5%              50.7%             25.5%
KC         64.0%              42.6%             24.8%
LAR       72.5%              31.4%             14.2%
NE         59.3%              24.0%             11.8%
IND       36.0%              16.7%              9.2%
LAC       40.7%              16.7%              8.5%
PHI        24.5%               9.0%              3.3%
DAL       27.5%               8.8%              2.8%

 

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I will say this, Andy Reid can coach and is an elite offensive coach. Sure he has struggled with KC, but prior to that I believe he had a winning record in the playoffs. Alex Smith wasn't exactly elite, and you pair elite arm talent with elite coaching and you have a heck of a problem on our hands. We should know, we seem to have the same with Luck and Reich. I loved what Reich said, we are out to score every time we get the ball no matter what. The key will be keeping luck clean as we have and also staying balanced with the running game. KCs defense is obviously pretty bad, they have no elite talent at LB or in the Secondary other than Berry, and he's banged up. If we can hold up against Ford, Houston, and Jones we should be able to have our way on offense.

 

That being said, it's going to be a dog fight on defense. I don't expect Mahomes to struggle much, especially at home. It's going to be critical for us to do what Eberflus has preached, keep things in front and rally to the ball. We can't let their RAC get outta control, especially with the likes of Hill. Making them go on long drives, as great as Mahomes is, can he be patient enough to dump it down and take what we give him. He has some Favre in him and he wants to take the 40 yard completion and not the 3 yard one for the first down. Hopefully we capitalize on any opportunities that he gives us. The one area I know we can improve in is catching the ball on defense, we've had a lot of opportunities over the second half of the season that we dropped INTs. Have to have those if they are there to win this game. Just my .02

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