Archer’s 2nd 2019 off- season mock

[Archer]

I conservatively figure a 31% chance for the playoffs.  The math flows from a 78% chance of beating the Giants, a 60% chance the Ravens lose to the Chargers, a 60% chance the Steelers lose to the Saints, and a 50% chance we lose to the Titans.  I believe those are the only factors we need to worry about.  Puts our draft pick about #19 if we miss, so I’ll go with that.

 

Outside FAs: none

Inside FAs: Glowinski (3-yr), Vini (3-yr), Desir (front-loaded 3-yr)

Let walk: Hunt (expensive), woods (old), Geathers (expensive for injury history), Grant, Slauson, et al.

 

1) Raekwon Davis, DT, Alabama

2) Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame

2) Jonathan Abram, S, Mississippi St.

3) Nate Herbig, OG, Stanford

4) Alijah Holder, CB, Stanford

4) Chris Slayton, DT, Syracuse

5) Jalen Hurd, WR, Baylor

6) Joe Dineen, LB, Kansas

7) Devon Johnson, OT, Ferris St.

[indyman411]

Not bad.  I like Davis and Love as the first 2 picks.  I don't really know much about the rest, but you seem to have hit all the positions I think the Colts need.  I agree that Geathers and Hunt will be gone as well.  Good job.

[richard pallo]

21 hours ago, Archer said:

I conservatively figure a 31% chance for the playoffs.  The math flows from a 78% chance of beating the Giants, a 60% chance the Ravens lose to the Chargers, a 60% chance the Steelers lose to the Saints, and a 50% chance we lose to the Titans.  I believe those are the only factors we need to worry about.  Puts our draft pick about #19 if we miss, so I’ll go with that.

 

Outside FAs: none

Inside FAs: Glowinski (3-yr), Vini (3-yr), Desir (front-loaded 3-yr)

Let walk: Hunt (expensive), woods (old), Geathers (expensive for injury history), Grant, Slauson, et al.

 

1) Raekwon Davis, DT, Alabama

2) Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame

2) Jonathan Abram, S, Mississippi St.

3) Nate Herbig, OG, Stanford

4) Alijah Holder, CB, Stanford

4) Chris Slayton, DT, Syracuse

5) Jalen Hurd, WR, Baylor

6) Joe Dineen, LB, Kansas

7) Devon Johnson, OT, Ferris St.

Outside FA's none?   I think there is a 100% certainty we will be signing outside FA's.  Those signings will also effect our draft IMO. 

[Defjamz26]

Davis is a NT. Who do you have as being the penetrating 3T in the defense?

[Archer]

Denico Autry, Tyquan Lewis (but also part-time DE), and jihad Ward would be my penetrating 3Ts...

[BOTT]

1 let hunt walk because he would be too expensive? wth?

 

2 is it worth spending a first rounder on a DLineman if he doesn't offer much pass rush?

[MikeCurtis]

You may have noticed, but they have been putting Hunt in as NT, for a chunk of each game the past 4-5 weeks, and he has done well....... He is a key cog to this defense

 

To me, the guy is too valuable to let walk. (Unless he wants a 15mil contract)

[MikeCurtis]

15 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Davis is a NT. Who do you have as being the penetrating 3T in the defense?

I assume you mean Raekwon Davis.  He is one of those rare players that would penetrate as a NT, and also has enough speed to play UT. 

 

I would LOVE Davis as our first pick. 

 

I saw a show last night that said in a "normal" draft (Where there isnt as many great DL line coming out), he would be a top 10 pick

 

These big guys get tired.  Rotation of talented players, on the DL is the key.

 

Having another big, very talented guy that gets penetration up the middle would do wonders for this defense

 

Penetration from the NT spot, is almost unheard of, but makes your defense hard to work against (who do you double team?)

 

I am starting to think that we need either a pass rusher like Polite or a NT player (Like Davis) that could play 3 downs if needed

 

A pure UT would be limited as we have Autry, Jhad Ward(Who was very impressive at UT, until he was hurt) and Lewis getting snaps there

 

Lewis will get more from this UT spot next year I believe, especially if we can get some DE performance 

 

This is a great draft, as there is excellent talent available to grab even in round 2. (Im glad we have 3 picks in first two rounds) 

 

Chase Winovich an excellent DE from that state....up north, may be a Ballard high energy., hustle kind of guy who might be an option in round 2

 

So many great choices...... I would be happy with most. We can easily pick some needed players.

 

I would be happy with this:

Round 1 DT- Davis 

Round 2 DE- Winovich

Round 2 WR- Hakeem Butler

Round 3 Best OT, CB, or SS available

Round 4 Repeat round 3

Round 5 Repeat round 3

 

 

 

 

[wig]

Margus is 31 and doesn't have a long history of success.  He'll get a modest 3 year deal with no guarantees after 2, I bet. 

[NewColtsFan]

I’d only be in favor of taking Davis with our pick at the top of the second.   And I’ve been reading he’s more likely to get picked in the 2nd than the 1st.

 

I believe Davis only has 1.5 sacks this year.   That’s a first round deal breaker for me.    Second round — ok, but not first.   And honestly, I’d prefer mire rush at the top if the second as well.  Just personal preference. 

 

Pass rush is what makes this defense go.    And since we typically have 8 DL active on game day and 10 on the 53, we can never have enough of them.

 

[Defjamz26]

7 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

I assume you mean Raekwon Davis.  He is one of those rare players that would penetrate as a NT, and also has enough speed to play UT. 

 

I would LOVE Davis as our first pick. 

 

I saw a show last night that said in a "normal" draft (Where there isnt as many great DL line coming out), he would be a top 10 pick

 

These big guys get tired.  Rotation of talented players, on the DL is the key.

 

Having another big, very talented guy that gets penetration up the middle would do wonders for this defense

 

Penetration from the NT spot, is almost unheard of, but makes your defense hard to work against (who do you double team?)

 

I am starting to think that we need either a pass rusher like Polite or a NT player (Like Davis) that could play 3 downs if needed

 

A pure UT would be limited as we have Autry, Jhad Ward(Who was very impressive at UT, until he was hurt) and Lewis getting snaps there

 

Lewis will get more from this UT spot next year I believe, especially if we can get some DE performance 

 

This is a great draft, as there is excellent talent available to grab even in round 2. (Im glad we have 3 picks in first two rounds) 

 

Chase Winovich an excellent DE from that state....up north, may be a Ballard high energy., hustle kind of guy who might be an option in round 2

 

So many great choices...... I would be happy with most. We can easily pick some needed players.

 

I would be happy with this:

Round 1 DT- Davis 

Round 2 DE- Winovich

Round 2 WR- Hakeem Butler

Round 3 Best OT, CB, or SS available

Round 4 Repeat round 3

Round 5 Repeat round 3

 

 

 

 

I think you’re overvaluing the role of a NT/UT in a 4-3 under. They’re probably not going to see more than 25% of the snaps as they’re in constant rotation. When they are on the field, their responsibility will be to stop the run and take up blockers to free up the LBs or 3T if he’s getting double teamed. You don’t need your UT to rush the passer (primarily). If you have a UT who has pass rush ability, you’re probably going to move him over to the 3T spot on certain packages to do so.

 

 I’m not against having a dominant NT, but it’s not as high a priority as finding a disruptive 3T. Davis would be fine (although I’m not sold yet) but you’d still have to get a true DT. Look at the Rams when they ran a 4-3. Donald was the 3T and Brockers was the UT. Brockers has never had crazy sack numbers because of this, but he’s a monster in the run game. If Davis has pass rush ability, that’s great but he wouldn’t be often utilized in that extent. He’d be Michael Brockers, but we’d still need an Aaron Donald.

[Archer]

I love what Hunt's done, but he's been around a while and has had his best two years with the Colts.  While I'd love to reward him, he doesn't seem like a future cog that Ballard would re-sign.  We could squeeze some more decent years out of him, but we probably just saw his career years.  I see Ballard taking advantage of the great D-Line class and let someone else give Hunt the reps we'll want our young-uns to get.  Plus, I think some DL desperate team will give him more $ than you'd think... 

[Hoose]

I look at Hunt as a very young 31 because:

1. He started playing football late in life;

2. He was seriously underutilized by The Bengals; 

3. Meaning the typical wear and tear for a player his age doesn’t  impact him. 

 

I think hes he’s a keeper and should get a nice raise (by the Colts) next season. 

[stitches]

On 12/22/2018 at 5:45 AM, BOTT said:

1 let hunt walk because he would be too expensive? wth?

 

2 is it worth spending a first rounder on a DLineman if he doesn't offer much pass rush?

The answer to 2 is a firm no. The Giants just got a 5th round pick for a all pro and arguably the best run stopper in the entire league in Snacks Harrison. I personally would not be drafting any run stuffers in the first couple of days, unless they offer good pass-rush ability. We've built a great run stopping defense with rookies and outcasts from other teams. Stopping the run is not incredibly hard even with modest resources. Getting to the QB and affecting him is hard and much more valuable. 

[Archer]

The man had 8.5 sacks as a sophomore.  I think he can rush the passer... 

[Archer]

Funny, Stampedeblue has an article up right now about how much money Hunt will get in his next contract.  They comped him to Chris Long, Adrian Clayborn, and William Hayes, and came up with a 2-yr contract worth $4.1 million a year, with 35% of it guaranteed.  Probably a close call for Ballard, who would rather have someone younger taking the snaps...

[BOTT]

2 hours ago, Archer said:

Funny, Stampedeblue has an article up right now about how much money Hunt will get in his next contract.  They comped him to Chris Long, Adrian Clayborn, and William Hayes, and came up with a 2-yr contract worth $4.1 million a year, with 35% of it guaranteed.  Probably a close call for Ballard, who would rather have someone younger taking the snaps...

That's not a lot of money.

[Archer]

It's not a ton, but for a GM who's saving his money to re-sign the important ones, it might be too much...

[tweezy32]

12 hours ago, Archer said:

Funny, Stampedeblue has an article up right now about how much money Hunt will get in his next contract.  They comped him to Chris Long, Adrian Clayborn, and William Hayes, and came up with a 2-yr contract worth $4.1 million a year, with 35% of it guaranteed.  Probably a close call for Ballard, who would rather have someone younger taking the snaps...

Lol I'd definitely give him that contract in a heart beat. 

[MikeCurtis]

On 12/22/2018 at 2:43 PM, NewColtsFan said:

I’d only be in favor of taking Davis with our pick at the top of the second.   And I’ve been reading he’s more likely to get picked in the 2nd than the 1st.

 

I believe Davis only has 1.5 sacks this year.   That’s a first round deal breaker for me.    Second round — ok, but not first.   And honestly, I’d prefer mire rush at the top if the second as well.  Just personal preference. 

 

Pass rush is what makes this defense go.    And since we typically have 8 DL active on game day and 10 on the 53, we can never have enough of them.

 

He had 8 1/2 sacks last year from the interior

 

I cant find the YTD stats for pressures, but from an article in Oct, according to one source, he led the Tide team with 14 QB pressures. Thats alot

 

This interior pressure is key to this defense

 

If we go with a pass rusher, or other spot at our pick in one, and Davis is still on the board for our fist second pick, we would be getting a great value

[MikeCurtis]

10 hours ago, tweezy32 said:

 

 

22 hours ago, Archer said:

Funny, Stampedeblue has an article up right now about how much money Hunt will get in his next contract.  They comped him to Chris Long, Adrian Clayborn, and William Hayes, and came up with a 2-yr contract worth $4.1 million a year, with 35% of it guaranteed.  Probably a close call for Ballard, who would rather have someone younger taking the snaps...

 

That seems like a low amount. I bet he goes for higher......  

[ColtStrong2013]

On 12/23/2018 at 8:14 PM, Archer said:

It's not a ton, but for a GM who's saving his money to re-sign the important ones, it might be too much...

 

He's not saving his money to re-sign the important ones. He's going to have plenty of money to sign those guys over the next several years. He's not saving his money at all. He just didn't need to spend it. 

 

Ballard has talked in depth about how you reward your own players. That's how culture is built. Rewarding your guys that performed. Hunt has performed. What message does that send if Ballard lets him walk because he's too cheap for a modest and reasonable deal?... that HAS been earned. 

 

Hunt's an Indianapolis Colt for the forseeable future. 

[rock8591]

UT is not the same as NT, it's the same as three technique.

[Archer]

On 12/24/2018 at 11:24 PM, ColtStrong2013 said:

 

He's not saving his money to re-sign the important ones. He's going to have plenty of money to sign those guys over the next several years. He's not saving his money at all. He just didn't need to spend it. 

 

Ballard has talked in depth about how you reward your own players. That's how culture is built. Rewarding your guys that performed. Hunt has performed. What message does that send if Ballard lets him walk because he's too cheap for a modest and reasonable deal?... that HAS been earned. 

 

Hunt's an Indianapolis Colt for the forseeable future. 

 

Respect the opinion, and I'd love to have him back.  I just doubt that Ballard will bring back a 32-year old DL whose best years are highly likely to be behind him...

[ColtStrong2013]

6 hours ago, Archer said:

 

Respect the opinion, and I'd love to have him back.  I just doubt that Ballard will bring back a 32-year old DL whose best years are highly likely to be behind him...

What 26-28 year old free agent would ever sign here then? They get a 4 year deal and earn every penny, and then get the ax because they are 32? 

 

I don't see it. He's going to reward HIS players that perform.