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CaptainColt12

Looking Back, was going for it on 4th down against the Texans a bad or a good decision

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20 minutes ago, Stephen said:

Im madder about not kicking  field goals in jags game

Well I'm not mad about the call in fact I liked it,

but yeah I didn't like not going for the points vs the jags,on the 4th down attempt inside the 5, we had been doing terrible that entire drive and were only in it cause the penalty on the field goal. We didn't gain a single yard for the 3 plays before the 4th down. That 4th down I'm mad at

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When you ignore the process in favor of the short-term results, the results will ultimately catch up with you and process you out of the league. Purely analytically the decision was very much on the border. Some models put it as a negative ~5% win probability others put it slightly above the threshold. 

 

The point is the decision is sound analytically and if you include other external factors(like establishing a tone and culture for a young team, showing trust in your team, getting buy in from your players, etc), to me it looks like the right decision. You don't know if the players get the same attitude and buy in in what Reich has been preaching since day 1(aggressive football) if he doesn't follow through in this situation and instead goes for the tie. For all we know we might get the draw in this game and then lose the next 10 because the players buy in was undermined the moment we got that draw. 

 

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I’m at peace with it.  It’s the decision I hoped he would make and hope he would make again.  There are ramifications...and I certainly see the other side of the argument as valid.

 

The results of a season are the ramifications of a series of daily decisions across multiple years.  The decision in question is, no doubt, a more definitive moment than most of those other decisions feel like in terms of our current playoff position.

 

Stay aggressive Frank...

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1 hour ago, lollygagger8 said:

 My birthday! A Colts win would be a great present! :)

 

 

Seriously though. Going for it was the right call. He showed the team he's not afraid to be aggressive and was setting the tone for the year. 

 

After all, Coach Reich did say he was going to be aggressive from the onset. 

 

Cool!  Mine is the 28th, the same as AV, and I'll gladly take a late birthday gift.

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This again? For those arguing we left points on the board.

 

We did not. Nothing is guaranteed. One could argue we left a higher probability of points than the choice the coach made. But it is not a fact that we would have scored another 6 points. 

 

I find the use of "facts" around here interesting. 

 

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I think it was the right idea but the wrong time.  He should have went for it on our first possession.  I think we had like 4th and 4 from around the 30 or something.  We settled for the field goal.  Once we did that we should have settled for the tie later on as well because TY was hurt.  Frank hadn't yet hit his groove as a play caller nor had Luck developed the chemistry with his other receivers. 

 

Though there was a receiver coming open to his left, Luck rushed the throw to Rogers on the right.  Hindsight is 20/20 but I think we should have punted.  Guys have muffed punts before.  Watson has fumbled and thrown interceptions.  There's more than one way to skin a cat.  Like later in the Jags game, Frank needed to learn that there's 3 phases to the game and sometimes you've got to let your defense and special teams win you a game.

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2 hours ago, CR91 said:

at the end, you play to win. You love a coach that has to much confidence in his team to make that call. 

Pagano would disagree with statement!

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7 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Pagano would disagree with statement!

 

But what about the greatest fake punt ever!!!

 

Well - at least the Colts were faked out.

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I love coach Reich. Thrilled he's our coach, really. /preface

 

It was absolutely the wrong call. One less loss can make all the difference in the world. You have to punt that 10 times out of 10.

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2 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

Personally I don't look back. Wishing something should have happened doesn't change anything.

 

Good point.

 

New wish list:

1. I win the lottery

2. Colts win 2

3. Texans, Steelers, Ravens, Patriots all lose 2

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