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CaptainColt12

Looking Back, was going for it on 4th down against the Texans a bad or a good decision

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     Now when that call was made I loved it, and as it turned out it didn't work. Lots of people(including me) said, oh it doesn't matter this season won't be a playoff season anyway. Well it is now and looking back on it, looks like it might have been the right decision to punt it and take the tie. We would be 8-5-1 and in the 6th seed. 

    I mean you can say it was the call that motivated everyone and changed the culture of Pagano's conservative playing calling for 6 years, which makes sense and I kind of think this way as well.  But we would have a huge advantage on making the playoffs with the:

Texans 9-4-1

Steelers 8-5-1 same as us

Ravens 8-6 which would give us the advantage over them 

     especially because the Ravens are playing the Chargers and the Steelers playing the Saints next week

it would ALMOST be a lock for us to make the playoffs cause we play the

Giants who I thought could have been a challenge when they beat the bears and Redskins but now a more decent and less tense game 

Titans which will be a hard game at Tennessee 

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1 minute ago, John Waylon said:

The short answer is, there is no good or correct answer. 

 

The long answer is the same as well. 

 

What about the average of the long and the short?

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5 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

What about the average of the long and the short?

 

Funny you should mention that, that answer is that we shouldn’t have pulled our starters against the Jets in 2009. 

 

:ninja:

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The reason the Colts lost that game is the offense handed the Texans 14 points in regulation.

 

Kelly fumble hiked the ball into the end zone. 

 

And the Colt's offense fumbled again near their own goal line giving the Texans a 1st and goal at the Colt's 8 yd line.

 

Without those two plays the Colts win 34-20 in regulation.

 

 

 

 

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It was never the right decision. No need to say anymore. It is done and dusted however. 

 

Similar to refusing the gimme FG early vs Jax. Frank will learn from those mistakes. I hope...

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It might not prevent us from making the playoffs, but it will certainly prevent us from winning the division.  Jags are sticking with Kessler.  The division is over.  Fair chance the Texans lose to the Eagles, but unless the Jags defense pitches another shutout or Kessler gets injured, there is no chance the Jags beat the Texans.  

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12 minutes ago, coltfaninnewyork said:

Can't live in past just looking forward 

tell that to marshall, will and holly.

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The Jags game, is the biggest reason why we aren't already in the WC. We had no business losing that game smh. In the Texans game, even if we dont go for it, there is no guarantee we stop Hou. If we don't make the playoffs, we will look back at that Jags game for sure

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Yes, yes yes. It was absolutely the right decision in my mind. I love the aggressive play calling and statistically it was the right choice. 

 

I think it showed something else too. Reich's trust in his team. Who knows how much that has meant to the players and the trickle down effect it's had on this season in a positive way. 

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14 minutes ago, braveheartcolt said:

It was never the right decision. No need to say anymore. It is done and dusted however. 

 

Similar to refusing the gimme FG early vs Jax. Frank will learn from those mistakes. I hope...

I do think in the long run it will be a good decision cause I feel we can make the playoffs anyway, Just wanted to see what other colts fans thought of it late in the season

 

and I think he will learn those mistakes as he goes on, just may not seem like it now cause he doesn't want to go back on his decisions when the media questions him about those calls

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Not taking care of business against 6-8 Cincinnati, 4-10 NY Jets and 4-10 Jacksonville is what will sink this season, not that OT decision vs Houston.

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My mind isn't working right now - help me out please - can someone make a list of ALL of the times we went for it on 4th down, and for each, what the situation was (i.e. tie game, way ahead, behind and trying to catch up etc.) and whether or not we made it?

 

The reason I ask is it's important to recognize when it WORKS as well as when it fails - what if there were 2 or 3 games we'd have lost without going for it?

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54 minutes ago, CaptainColt12 said:

     Now when that call was made I loved it, and as it turned out it didn't work. Lots of people(including me) said, oh it doesn't matter this season won't be a playoff season anyway. Well it is now and looking back on it, looks like it might have been the right decision to punt it and take the tie. We would be 8-5-1 and in the 6th seed. 

    I mean you can say it was the call that motivated everyone and changed the culture of Pagano's conservative playing calling for 6 years, which makes sense and I kind of think this way as well.  But we would have a huge advantage on making the playoffs with the:

Texans 9-4-1

Steelers 8-5-1 same as us

Ravens 8-6 which would give us the advantage over them 

     especially because the Ravens are playing the Chargers and the Steelers playing the Saints next week

it would ALMOST be a lock for us to make the playoffs cause we play the

Giants who I thought could have been a challenge when they beat the bears and Redskins but now a more decent and less tense game 

Titans which will be a hard game at Tennessee 

And we would have the tiebreaker on Houston.

 

So, it might cost us a division title, but it wont cost us a playoff spot. If we win out, we will get in. And we should win out. 

 

I love the way Reich handles things situationally. And it was a mistake, because it didnt work. But not everyone views mistakes as bad things. They are teachable moments and if you arent making mistakes, its because you arent trying to do anything that is hard.

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25 minutes ago, MacDee1975 said:

Not taking care of business against 6-8 Cincinnati, 4-10 NY Jets and 4-10 Jacksonville is what will sink this season, not that OT decision vs Houston.

Hogwash. We have no devine right to win any game. We do have a right not to chuck away points.....

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I think at the time Reich really didn’t think we would be a playoff contender. Back then if he new what he knows now he probably would not of went for it.

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Different strokes for different folks. IMO it was a horrible decision same with the 4th down attempts in the Jag game. Others who are into analytics have been quick to point out to me that the percentages say go for it.

 

Think about this, if we would have took the tie and kicked FGs in the Jag game we would be 9-4-1. Half a game behind Houston and pretty much locked in a playoff spot.

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at the end, you play to win. You love a coach that has to much confidence in his team to make that call. 

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Reich made the decision to go for the win, based on statistical data (I assume). The statistics dictated a higher probability of a win if he went for it on 4th down in OT, as opposed to a tie.

 

The same applied in the Jags game 4th down situations.  (Should have taken the 3 points).

 

However, as more teams have looked at the statistics, they too have decided to go for it on 4th down. We're seeing a lot more teams go for it on 4th down this year. This is leading to new and more statistical data on 4th down conversions. I feel that after the season, with so many failed 4th down attempts, the old school approach will be the new approach. You punt/kick the field goal on 4th down.

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13 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I think at the time Reich really didn’t think we would be a playoff contender.

 

I don't think that was a factor in his decision making process.

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7 minutes ago, Nesjan3 said:

Think about this, if we would have took the tie and kicked FGs in the Jag game we would be 9-4-1. Half a game behind Houston and pretty much locked in a playoff spot.

 

If we converted and won the game, we'd be 9-5, first place in the division, third place in the conference.

 

Reich's decision wasn't about the standings, nor should it have been. It was Week 4. He was trying to win the game.

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7 minutes ago, CR91 said:

at the end, you play to win. You love a coach that has to much confidence in his team to make that call. 

at the end you play to get into the playoffs. 

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12 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't think that was a factor in his decision making process.

 

Agree. Quite the opposite in fact. Colts desperately needed a win with NE the following week. Big difference for a team that starts 1-3 vs. 2-2 as well.

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I usually lean toward "play to win - not to avoid losing".  I think sometimes coaches become too conservative and play the averages.  It's the safe call.  I don't second guess coaches who make aggressive calls.  If they work people say they are a genius and if they don't then they get blamed for not following the conventional wisdom.

 

We forget some of the aggressive calls that got us where we are.  Without those maybe we aren't even in contention.  

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1 hour ago, Barry Sears said:

We'll know the answer after the game on December 30th. 

 My birthday! A Colts win would be a great present! :)

 

 

Seriously though. Going for it was the right call. He showed the team he's not afraid to be aggressive and was setting the tone for the year. 

 

After all, Coach Reich did say he was going to be aggressive from the onset. 

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53 minutes ago, GoatBeard said:

And we would have the tiebreaker on Houston.

 

So, it might cost us a division title, but it wont cost us a playoff spot. If we win out, we will get in. And we should win out. 

 

I love the way Reich handles things situationally. And it was a mistake, because it didnt work. But not everyone views mistakes as bad things. They are teachable moments and if you arent making mistakes, its because you arent trying to do anything that is hard.

Oh of course I realize that it doesn't cost us a playoff spot, but I'm just saying that it would make it even easier, and what I said in the post, an almost lock. I do like the decision, I think it really set our team motto to everyone in the NFL.

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28 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

at the end you play to get into the playoffs. 

 

and you get to the playoffs by winning. At the end of the day, we still have a chance to get in. Shoulda woulda coulda doesnt matter.

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Was it the right call in hindsight? NO, of course not. It led to a loss.

 

Was it the right call at the moment? You can make an argument that it gave the team the best chance for a win and set the team's mindset of being aggressive and playing for the win.

 

You can also make an argument that opposing teams now have to be prepared to face a tough minded, do-or-die type of team. Not a conservative, traditional type of team.

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It was definitely the right call. We can't assume everything would have played out like it did. We can only really look at it through the lens of that time...and in that week...the Colts needed a win and were trying to steal a game they probably had no business winning (after being down big).

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2 hours ago, egg said:

The reason the Colts lost that game is the offense handed the Texans 14 points in regulation.

 

Kelly fumble hiked the ball into the end zone. 

 

And the Colt's offense fumbled again near their own goal line giving the Texans a 1st and goal at the Colt's 8 yd line.

 

Without those two plays the Colts win 34-20 in regulation.

 

 

 

 

The going for it on 4th was trying to WIN the game. Plays before that LOST the Game. IF the Colts' made it and tied? Well its a tie. We can contemplate this over and over but its in the past you have to deal with whats is TODAY. Nobody can predict the future with 100% accuracy. 

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2 hours ago, MacDee1975 said:

Not taking care of business against 6-8 Cincinnati, 4-10 NY Jets and 4-10 Jacksonville is what will sink this season, not that OT decision vs Houston.

Precisely. Houston was a talented team and a division rival. The other teams will be picking top 10 in the draft. That’s what we’ll look back on.

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I put “not going for it on 4th down vs Texans” as 5th on my wish list. 

 

I wish:

1. Doyle didn’t fumble vs Bengals

2. refs didn’t call 4th down holding on Sheard vs Eagles

3. Johnson didn’t drop easy 3rd down pass vs Texans

4. Colts scored ONE Stinking TD vs Jaguars. 

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3 hours ago, CaptainColt12 said:

     Now when that call was made I loved it, and as it turned out it didn't work. Lots of people(including me) said, oh it doesn't matter this season won't be a playoff season anyway. Well it is now and looking back on it, looks like it might have been the right decision to punt it and take the tie. We would be 8-5-1 and in the 6th seed. 

    I mean you can say it was the call that motivated everyone and changed the culture of Pagano's conservative playing calling for 6 years, which makes sense and I kind of think this way as well.  But we would have a huge advantage on making the playoffs with the:

Texans 9-4-1

Steelers 8-5-1 same as us

Ravens 8-6 which would give us the advantage over them 

     especially because the Ravens are playing the Chargers and the Steelers playing the Saints next week

it would ALMOST be a lock for us to make the playoffs cause we play the

Giants who I thought could have been a challenge when they beat the bears and Redskins but now a more decent and less tense game 

Titans which will be a hard game at Tennessee 

Im madder about not kicking  field goals in jags game

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1 hour ago, gspdx said:

I usually lean toward "play to win - not to avoid losing".  I think sometimes coaches become too conservative and play the averages.  It's the safe call.  I don't second guess coaches who make aggressive calls.  If they work people say they are a genius and if they don't then they get blamed for not following the conventional wisdom.

 

We forget some of the aggressive calls that got us where we are.  Without those maybe we aren't even in contention.  

^^This^^   IMO

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I think losing to the Jets, a clearly inferior team
I think losing to the Eagles, who were ripe to pick off
I think coughing up the ball against Cincy

 

Those 3 games mean more than losing in OT to the Texans. They just do.

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