Why the Colts will put Dallas away...fast.

[Lawrence Owen]

We all know what homerism is.  And I have found myself in that company a time or two myself.  But the more I research, the more I see Indy just dominating this game versus the Cowboys.  Now, It will sound like homerism as you read, but EVERYTHING I am about to write will have stats and/or history to back it up.  This is why:

First off, The biggest threats on the Cowboys offense are without a doubt Ezekiel Elliott & Amari Cooper.  Zek is by far the most all around dominate RB we have faced. He leads the NFL in yards @ 1262 and averages 4.7 YPC.  He is fed a LOT.  He averages 21 carries/game, which is by far the most in the NFL (2 more carries/game than even Gurley).  He is this teams bread and butter. If he can't get it going, Cowboys have to rely on Dak to carry the team.  Indy is 5th in the NFL in YPC allowed, and have 5 players on the front 7 with 9 or more TFL's on the season. Indy is REAL good at stopping the run. We just need to stack the box every possible run down with 8.  Bring Geathers down to help.  

They use play action a lot also because of how effective their run game is.  Once the Defense reads the ball is NOT in Zek's hands, they HAVE to do 2 things most importantly.  #1 Put a fast good tackler on Zek. He is a big play machine when Dak dumps it off to him.  I would have one of our LB'ers Leonard or Walker on him as a shadow.  #2 Is do the EXACT same thing to Cooper we did to Hopkins last week.  Whichever CB has Cooper, have him underneath, and have Hooker just over the top.  This will take the #1 WR the past 6 weeks of the NFL out of the game.  

Also, Dak is the MOST sacked QB in the NFL. Being sacked 48 times and hit a whopping 91.  He makes terrible decisions when under pressure.  Eberflus need to dial up those blitzes.  Make those run blitzes turn into pass blitzes when the ball stay's in Dak's hands.

If we do this, (toughest thing is stopping Zek's running attack I admit) We force Dak to win the game without his 2 main weapons.  I don't believe he can. I think we'll even get a few turnover's in the process whether by strip sacks, or just errant throws by an under pressure Dak.

Offensively, we need to stay protective of the pass rush ourselves.  Cowboys are tied for 12th in the NFL with us in pass rush sacks.  But unlike us, they have a premiere pass rusher that take the biggest load. Lawrence.  Lock him down.  When a team only has 1  top pass rusher, Our offensive line has given up only 4 sacks this year to teams with only one sack master over 8 sacks on the year (to this point).  Most of our sacks come from teams like the Jags or Titans with multiple sack masters on their team.  Double down on Lawrence.

Stay away from screens, like i said, Very fast rangy linebackers. And use Ebron and Mo-Alie Cox on Clearing routes.  For once, I think we can use our TE's to help our WR's.  Use the TE's to clear our the LB'ers from the middle of the field and hit our WR in those vacant spots. I would work on their DB's ALL game when passing.  Hit those soft zones.  Cowboys play a very similar zone scheme to what we do. Luck see's them every day, so he just need to play like he is playing his own defense.

Run the ball directly at them.  This defense is fast, but not very big.  Much like our own.  Run traps and guard pulls to hit linebackers on the second level to spring our fast RB's out to the open field. If we get even 3 yards/carry, it is successful because they know if they move someone back a big one could break.  So keep running even if the gains are minimal.  It will work in the play-action when Luck decides to keep it.

This is how i see the game.  I honestly think 21 would win this game.  But if Zek is held to under 4 YPC like every RB  we've faced (Except Sony Mitchel), I like our chances of winning by a bunch.

[2006Coltsbestever]

It's hard telling how this game will go. Depends on who doesn't Turn It Over and has dumb Penalties IMO. I had a good feeling that we would beat Houston just based on they were due for a loss and we laid an egg at Jacks. I picked a 20-17 win last week on the Game Thread and we won 24-21. I figured Luck wouldn't have 2 stinkers in a row. Dallas is a team that has a Great running game and a Great Pass Rush. This will be tough IMO. I have it as a 50/50 game. If I had to choose a winner, it would be us only because the game is here at Indy and we actually need the game more. 

[indyagent17]

I appreciate your Keen insight the only thing I have a problem with is Vanderesch is a very good player with a great deal of range. Our running game is going to have a difficult time getting started in this game so it's important we do not stall out our first few drives like we have the last few weeks. The key to this game is catch the stinking ball! With swoope being cut this is time for Cox to shine with his great height it is tremendous jumping ability. I think Pascal has the ability to set well in the secondary for possession passes. He has some of the best hands on the team. The real wild card here is what the other receivers do. Inman, Grant and Rogers need to be on top of their game. That's a big ask but that will open up the running game and keep us from being one-dimensional

[Lawrence Owen]

4 minutes ago, indyagent17 said:

I appreciate your Keen insight the only thing I have a problem with is Vanderesch is a very good player with a great deal of range. Our running game is going to have a difficult time getting started in this game so it's important we do not stall out our first few drives like we have the last few weeks. The key to this game is catch the stinking ball! With swoope being cut this is time for Cox to shine with his great height it is tremendous jumping ability. I think Pascal has the ability to set well in the secondary for possession passes. He has some of the best hands on the team. The real wild card here is what the other receivers do. Inman, Grant and Rogers need to be on top of their game. That's a big ask but that will open up the running game and keep us from being one-dimensional

I agree to the bolded, and put those facts into my observations.  Is why i say run directly at them when we do run...so to get a blocker on him right away. Because he and Smith and run a stretch play down fast.  Also why i have TE's clearing the middle of the field. I meant clearing the LB'ers out so our WR's can go in right behind and be wide open.

Also, yes, we HAVE to keep running the ball. Even if it is not very successful at first.  It wears down a defense, and makes them respect the run enough to make play action effective.

[King Colt]

I'll guess most Colts fans want this win so all the media worship of the Cowboys will have to struggle to rationalize their defeat after the game. The Colts were scoreless in the first and fourth quarters last week against the Texans and getting off to a good start force the Cowboys to play from behind. The lack of a running game last week (4 first downs while passing for 17 and 50 net yards rushing for 23 carries) needs to improve to beat Dallas. I think the Colts win this one simply because above all other reasons Luck is shining like a new born star. Clowney will never forget how his  jump ended the game last week. I wonder how Reich will factor in Zach Pascal for this game.

[cbear]

If Kelly and Glowinski are healthy, I think we can score on Dallas.  Maybe 27 or so.  Our defense will be the key.  

[crazycolt1]

Turnovers and penalties will determine this game IMO.

[shasta519]

Colts need to get up by a couple scores. Do that and I think they will win.

 

This game is somewhat of a role reversal from the 2014 game. IND was on the road (with the divison already won) against a motivated DAL trying to secure HFA. Colts got stomped. 

 

This year, DAL is on the road (with their division basically won) against a motivated Colts trying to make the playoffs.

 

Colts won’t stomp DAL like they did to IND...but I do think they can win comfortably if they get out to a good lead.

[LockeDown]

Eberflus faced Zeke everyday in practice as Dallas linebacker coach.  Leonard, Walker and Adams should Play well against him.  Hopefully the whole front 7.

[Narcosys]

You just jinxed it. Now it's going to be the other way around. This is one I pegged us to lose. Their offense is going to be too much. It's going to be a shootout that we won't be able to keep up with. They had the #1 pass defense up until a week or two ago, and we are a passing team. It's not going to be easy.

[coltsfeva]

   One key will be if Desir and/or Moore can cover Cooper one on one.

     If they stop or limit Zek and make Dak have to throw dimes, the Colts will have a good shot to win this game.

[Dingus McGirt]

5 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

Turnovers and penalties will determine this game IMO.

In a manner of speaking, yes.  The officiating will be the Colt's downfall, as the NFL has great interest in the Cowboys winning at all cost.  Manipulation of game outcome in the NFL is becoming worse than the way NASCAR ensures its top drivers (golden boys) always have a chance with a late race restart.

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

In a manner of speaking, yes.  The officiating will be the Colt's downfall, as the NFL has great interest in the Cowboys winning at all cost.  Manipulation of game outcome in the NFL is becoming worse than the way NASCAR ensures its top drivers (golden boys) always have a chance with a late race restart.

We beat the Refs last week too, so nothing new 

[lollygagger8]

The key to this game is stopping screens and passes to the RB out of the backfield. Colts have been really bad at bad for a really long time. 

 

Is it because our offense isn't good at it, and they can't practice at it? Idk, but bracketing Cooper like they did against Hopkins is obvious, but Zeke catching passes is going to be where they do the damage. Oh, and SEND THE BLITZES Eberflus! 

 

I'm glad we got Kelly back, and hopefully Glowinski as well. Get the ball out fast on offense and do some QB rollouts. Move Luck around. Hit 'em with that no huddle once in awhile also.  

[MikeCurtis]

A quick lead is key

 

I fear ZEKE, much more than Prescot

 

Make him pass..... put pressure on him.... He DOES make poor decisions with pressure

 

We can win this game

[Smonroe]

Not that any past years have any bearing on a current game but - the Colts seem to have problems with the Cowboys.  Haven’t beat them since 02.  

 

Time to even the scales!   

 

 

[Myles]

I think this is a 50/50 game.   The Colts haven't showed us much to think they can come out strong early in the game.

[Barry Sears]

We simply have to hit our free throws!  

[AZColt11]

I'll give you my pre-game analysis on Monday.

[dodsworth]

Eberflus is the wildcard in this game.

[IinD]

No Luck bonehead picks and/or fumbles by the RB's.

 

My personal feeling on this game is we'll win big or lose a close one. Don't think we'll get destroyed if we lose.

[chad72]

7 minutes ago, IinD said:

No Luck bonehead picks and/or fumbles by the RB's.

 

My personal feeling on this game is we'll win big or lose a close one. Don't think we'll get destroyed if we lose.

 

If winning by 10 with few mistakes is a big win vs the Cowboys, then I think we will win big. However, I do think the Cowboys are good enough to keep it close like a 1 possession game.

 

Colts 27 Cowboys 20

 

Like Magic Johnson said after losing to the Bulls by 20, "whether you lose by 20 or lose by 2, it is still a loss". All I care for is a W.  

[krunk]

50 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

Not that any past years have any bearing on a current game but - the Colts seem to have problems with the Cowboys.  Haven’t beat them since 02.  

 

Time to even the scales!   

 

 

Only difference now is Romo is not the QB,  their line is not as good as usual and they don't have Jason Witten. That may be enough to get us over the hump.

[krunk]

I'm not dismissing the Cowboys.  I just can't ignore what they did to the Saints and New Orleans is a bigger machine than the Colts.  I'm expecting a dog fight.

[chad72]

1 minute ago, krunk said:

I'm not dismissing the Cowboys.  I just can't ignore what they did to the Saints and New Orleans is a bigger machine than the Colts.  I'm expecting a dog fight.

 

Pretty much even their road games are 1 possession games, just like their home games. They won't run away from you but won't let you run away from them either.

[Blueblood23]

10 hours ago, Lawrence Owen said:

We all know what homerism is.  And I have found myself in that company a time or two myself.  But the more I research, the more I see Indy just dominating this game versus the Cowboys.  Now, It will sound like homerism as you read, but EVERYTHING I am about to write will have stats and/or history to back it up.  This is why:

First off, The biggest threats on the Cowboys offense are without a doubt Ezekiel Elliott & Amari Cooper.  Zek is by far the most all around dominate RB we have faced. He leads the NFL in yards @ 1262 and averages 4.7 YPC.  He is fed a LOT.  He averages 21 carries/game, which is by far the most in the NFL (2 more carries/game than even Gurley).  He is this teams bread and butter. If he can't get it going, Cowboys have to rely on Dak to carry the team.  Indy is 5th in the NFL in YPC allowed, and have 5 players on the front 7 with 9 or more TFL's on the season. Indy is REAL good at stopping the run. We just need to stack the box every possible run down with 8.  Bring Geathers down to help.  

They use play action a lot also because of how effective their run game is.  Once the Defense reads the ball is NOT in Zek's hands, they HAVE to do 2 things most importantly.  #1 Put a fast good tackler on Zek. He is a big play machine when Dak dumps it off to him.  I would have one of our LB'ers Leonard or Walker on him as a shadow.  #2 Is do the EXACT same thing to Cooper we did to Hopkins last week.  Whichever CB has Cooper, have him underneath, and have Hooker just over the top.  This will take the #1 WR the past 6 weeks of the NFL out of the game.  

Also, Dak is the MOST sacked QB in the NFL. Being sacked 48 times and hit a whopping 91.  He makes terrible decisions when under pressure.  Eberflus need to dial up those blitzes.  Make those run blitzes turn into pass blitzes when the ball stay's in Dak's hands.

If we do this, (toughest thing is stopping Zek's running attack I admit) We force Dak to win the game without his 2 main weapons.  I don't believe he can. I think we'll even get a few turnover's in the process whether by strip sacks, or just errant throws by an under pressure Dak.

Offensively, we need to stay protective of the pass rush ourselves.  Cowboys are tied for 12th in the NFL with us in pass rush sacks.  But unlike us, they have a premiere pass rusher that take the biggest load. Lawrence.  Lock him down.  When a team only has 1  top pass rusher, Our offensive line has given up only 4 sacks this year to teams with only one sack master over 8 sacks on the year (to this point).  Most of our sacks come from teams like the Jags or Titans with multiple sack masters on their team.  Double down on Lawrence.

Stay away from screens, like i said, Very fast rangy linebackers. And use Ebron and Mo-Alie Cox on Clearing routes.  For once, I think we can use our TE's to help our WR's.  Use the TE's to clear our the LB'ers from the middle of the field and hit our WR in those vacant spots. I would work on their DB's ALL game when passing.  Hit those soft zones.  Cowboys play a very similar zone scheme to what we do. Luck see's them every day, so he just need to play like he is playing his own defense.

Run the ball directly at them.  This defense is fast, but not very big.  Much like our own.  Run traps and guard pulls to hit linebackers on the second level to spring our fast RB's out to the open field. If we get even 3 yards/carry, it is successful because they know if they move someone back a big one could break.  So keep running even if the gains are minimal.  It will work in the play-action when Luck decides to keep it.

This is how i see the game.  I honestly think 21 would win this game.  But if Zek is held to under 4 YPC like every RB  we've faced (Except Sony Mitchel), I like our chances of winning by a bunch.

I don't know about fast as Luck is a historic slow starter. Seems like our first couple of drives are three and out. I do see the Colts winning so all is good.

[Chrisaaron1023]

1 hour ago, Smonroe said:

Not that any past years have any bearing on a current game but - the Colts seem to have problems with the Cowboys.  Haven’t beat them since 02.  

 

Time to even the scales!   

 

 

yupp.. bad luck in all three games too.

 

06 ended out undefeated streak

10 peyton 2 pick six's

14 never even showed up

[chad72]

5 minutes ago, Chrisaaron1023 said:

yupp.. bad luck in all three games too.

 

06 ended out undefeated streak

10 peyton 2 pick six's

14 never even showed up

 

First time playing Dak though, right?

[ColtStrong2013]

9 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

Turnovers and penalties will determine this game IMO.

Usually do. We have to stay sharp and limit big plays and penalties. Force Dak to throw the football and keep the pressure on him like we did last week with Watson. IMO, Dallas and Houston are very similar. 

[Chrisaaron1023]

4 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

First time playing Dak though, right?

yes sir

[crazycolt1]

2 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

Usually do. We have to stay sharp and limit big plays and penalties. Force Dak to throw the football and keep the pressure on him like we did last week with Watson. IMO, Dallas and Houston are very similar. 

If we have non stop pressure on Dak we will win this game. I think they will be force feeding Zek though.

[NewColtsFan]

42 minutes ago, Blueblood23 said:

I don't know about fast as Luck is a historic slow starter. Seems like our first couple of drives are three and out. I do see the Colts winning so all is good.

 

Andrew Luck is a “historic slow starter”....

 

WTH?      Historic?

 

Where do people come up with this stuff?

[2006Coltsbestever]

I have no idea but they do everyday 

[richard pallo]

4 hours ago, coltsfeva said:

   One key will be if Desir and/or Moore can cover Cooper one on one.

     If they stop or limit Zek and make Dak have to throw dimes, the Colts will have a good shot to win this game.

I don't think Desir and Moore can cover Cooper one on one.  I wouldn't let them.  As Lawrence Owen  said one underneath and Hooker over the top.  I can see an INT coming there.  Also I like intentionally  rolling Andrew out once in awhile.  He's great throwing it while he's moving.  Like rolling him out on 3rd. and short to get the 1st. or TD. as well. 

[RollerColt]

How our players perform in their respective matchups is what I'm watching. Some questions I have pertains to how TY matches up against the safeties in terms of speed, and how Ebron will be covered once we get into the Cowboy's side of the field, as he is one of our bigger end zone threats. 

 

Our receivers absolutely have to protect the football in this one. No tipping passes, no fumbles. Secure it and get the heck down. Turnovers will put either team ahead potentially for good. I still feel like it's going to be a back and forth type of affair. 

[GusFring]

Why jinx your own team?

[Blueblood23]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Andrew Luck is a “historic slow starter”....

 

WTH?      Historic?

 

Where do people come up with this stuff?

Here's an example.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/it-took-17-games-but-colts-finally-get-an-opening-drive-score/

[Luck 4 president]

It’s going to be a tough game. Our defense has done well against the run but at the same time we have not faced a top tier RB all season. We have Zeke and Saquon coming up which could make those our toughest games of the season. 

[pgt_rob]

I don't see this game being easy. It's going to be a brutal game in my opinion. Whoever plays the smartest game of football with the least amount of mistakes will take it. I hope the Colts are on the right side of the stick with this one. Their defense is pretty darn good. Going to have to watch out for Jaylon Smith, Vander Esch, DeMarcus Lawrence, Collins, and Gregory. Those guys will wreak havoc on us if we make dumb mistakes or turn the ball over.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, Blueblood23 said:

Here's an example.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/it-took-17-games-but-colts-finally-get-an-opening-drive-score/

 

Look....   I agree with you that Luck often needs a few drives to get comfortable with the defense he’s facing...    but once you used the word “historic” that’s where you lost me.

 

When people use that word, I start thinking record book and stuff like that,  not just tendencies.    And remember some of Luck’s slow starts can be the fault of the coaching staff or bad plays by teammates.   Not talking about this year as much as previous seasons.

 

Sorry if I overreacted to just one key word.   But that one word made all the difference to me.